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Exchange Rate Predictions 2015

Home Forums Investing in Brazil Exchange Rate Predictions 2015

This topic contains 370 replies, has 38 voices, and was last updated by  jeb2886 6 years, 3 months ago.

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  • #272301

    lynchem
    Member

    I said it a year ago, I’ll say it again.

    “Someone had to do it”…
    Lol, this time we’re in for a positive for foreign investment if oil stays down up north and keeps this currency low.
  • #272312

    Serrano
    Participant

    I was waiting on you Leblon…. Clap

    The exchange rateprediction threads of previous years were more times than not generalchit-chat about the global economy, in which Brasil, as one of theBRICS, is a key player. Perhaps a broader title would be moreappropriate, something like Economic and Political Bate-Papo (and howto prepare for when the SHTF).

    But let’s roll with thistitle again, for now. If we’re all still here next year, maybechange it.

    While hardly a conclusivelist, these were some of the key events of 2014….

    1) Copa do Mundo/WorldCup Brasil: The slaughter that occurred in the game against Germanywas historic. Unfortunately, it will be remembered far longer thanthe +/- 15 BILLION DOLLARS (notreais, and not sure what exchange rate was used to obtain thatfigure), which was spent on hosting the games; 75% of thatexpenditure was for ‘infrastructure’ (largely, stadium construction). Hmmm, doing some quick math, that’s a little over 11 BILLION DOLLARSthat could have been invested on education, health care, transportation (including road andrailroad improvements, etc) rather than on ‘circus’. Granted, airports did receive some’fluffy up’ for Copa. Yet bottom line: Copa was a miserable failurefor the nation at large, and a bill that will take it’s citizensdecades to pay!

    2) The launching of a development bank funded by the BRICS, which willcompete againstcircumvent the US/Euro-centric IMF and World Bank (run bybanksters, no matter how chic they might look in their haute couture). BTW… with all the moneyshe makes, don’t you think Christine Lagarde could find a better haircolor than ‘Bleached Blonde’?!? LOL

    [Sidebarfactoid: The BRICS represent almost three billion people, about 40%of the planet’s human population, and a combined GDP of approximately16 trillion dollars (the US debtis now at 18 trillion, getting deeper by the hour, and the US hasabout 300 million people, or 5% of the world’s population.]

    3) Ukraine/Crimea…. Where to start?!? A most likely false flag eventshooting down a commercial airline flight is one starting point. Why was it’s flight path diverted some 300 miles off course, by KievATC, into a war zone??? Why did Tio Sam, with his state-of-the-artspy program, produce Polaroid quality satellite images of the areaafterwards, as ‘proof’ that the Russians were responsible? Let’s notforget some embarrassing leaked phone calls. Calls which revealed TioSam sticking his nose (yet again) into the sovereignty and electionresults of other nations. Nations who might not follow the dictatesof the real terrorists, on ‘The Hill’, hell-bent on bringing Pax Americanato the entire planet (see HR 758 and Senate bill”Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014″ as the latest examples of the Wolfowitz Doctrine).

    4) Sanctions against Russia: Speaking of asinine thinking, andself-destructive behavior, in an attempt to teach Russia a thing ortwo, because they (the Russkies) have sacos, and refuse to kiss TioSam’s bunda, oil is now being sold by the OPEC mafia (controlled bythe Saudis) at ridiculously low prices. BTW, the Saudis have one of the worst human rights records of anynation on earth, and lest we forget, 15 of the 19 hijackers on Sept 11, 2001 were also Saudis (none were Iraqi, Iranian, Afghani, Libyan, or Syrian).

    Don’t piss that Bear off Tio, especially since the Dragon has his back! Shocked

    So where does Brasil fitinto all this my dear gringos…? How much does it cost PBR toextract pre-sal oil from 20,000 leagues under the sea?!? I don’thave the precise figure, but no doubt it’s a helluva lot morethan the going rate of a barrel of crude. Dear (re-elected by cretins) Dilma, and darling (to be re-elected by cretins in 2018) Lula, were soooo counting on those pre-sal oil sales(at a much higher value) to be ringing the Tesouraria’s cashregisters about now, to pay off the extravagance of the now come andgone Copa failure, as well as the yet to come Summer Olympic Games(success/failure yet to be determined), not to mention a myriad ofother PT schemes, swindles, and outright thievery. Ruh-roh!!! Confused

    And if Brasil is forced tochoose sides, which one do you think it will be? The side of thecountry which was recently revealed to have furtively capturedprivate data sent and received by the cellphone belonging to thePresident of Brasil, or the country/countries which are economic BRICpartners?

    [Factoid: China is nowBrasil’s principal trading partner, not the EUA]

    But as for the good news(if there even is any), take a look at this video which displays theglobal atmospheric circulation patterns, which will come into playfor any NWDZs (Nuclear Winter Dispertion Zones) that might occur when WMDs cause a catastrophic SHTF event (you should know well by now those acronyms).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qh011eAYjAA

    Those of us in Brasilshould be relatively safe from the effects of any SHTF events thatmight occur in the northern hemisphere (where most of the craziesseem to be located). However, you gringos in the NE might want tohave a plan in place to head south, just to make sure you are wellout of harm’s way.

    Get your house in ordergringos. If in debt, get out! If you have tons of money in thebank, SPEND IT NOW (or at least most of it) on real estate (but pick carefully), preciousmetals (silver more practical than gold, as well as presently more affordable for most),or something else tangible(quality scotch?), before the paper it’sprinted on isn’t even worth using as papel higi√ɬ™nica (maybe anothergood tangible item to invest in). Land, with viable infrastructure to support you and your loved ones is my favorite. This could get ugly. If not in2015, then sometime soon thereafter. The Reaper has his scytheready!

    And don’t forget, you reap what you sow….

    Perhapsto be of interest: The Calm Before the Storm

    FelizAno Novo gente!!! Confused

    (This post is intendedfor entertainment purposes only, and does not express desire for, orsupport terrorism, war [for whatever reason, or ruse], nor violenceagainst others, in any way, shape, or form. Neither shouldany suggestions provided here to hedge your bets be construed as financial advice. Best toconsult Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers, Zero Hedge, etc. This post might be toostrong for immature audiences. Parental guidance is suggested. However, some kids might be more mature than their parents.)

    EDIT:GPS (grammar/punctuation/spelling). Some amplification too.

    Gringo.Serrano2015-01-13 17:57:33

  • #272315

    celso
    Member

    The China as main trading partner is problematic for Brazil. As Brazil reinforces the old colonial model of exporting commodities in exchange for Chinese manufactured crap. In fact much of the commodities that Brazil sells to China are reexported to US as value added goods.
    Brazil faces another year of pain. Real expected to go 3.0 and higher to dollar.

  • #272345

    lynchem
    Member

    Hey GF, long time not chat old friend! Same to you GBOF (happy new year to you both)!
    Oddly enough you were mentioning investing in something that would have a safety net affect. There was a discussion on the fb group about Bitcoin. Not necessarily regarding savings, but for money transfer. However, I think if you’re talking about hiding your money or keeping it above par, buying real-estate is certainly easier now with the ever weakening real. Yet, the irony is in the local prices still being assbackwards what they charge and I receive after purchases.
    I guess if brazil doesn’t surprise you still, then you’re not paying attention!

  • #272356

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Leblon] However, I think if you’re talking about hiding your money or keeping it above par, buying real-estate is certainly easier now with the ever weakening real. Yet, the irony is in the local prices still being assbackwards what they charge and I receive after purchases. [/QUOTE]
    I think the days of ‘hiding’ your money are over (unless willing to face severe legal repercussions for attempting to do so). Obviously, for those of us who have to comply with FATCA, things are much more complicated than for a Canadian, Brit, or European (for now).
    Re: “local prices being ass-backwards”, spread your wings a little Leblon, and look outside the ZS. I know someone who wants to sell their sitio in Friburgo (moving to Portugal). If interested, pm me. But yes, the present forex makes RE more affordable (right now) if using cash outside of the country. But with any devaluation of a currency, the window of opportunity is limited, before people begin to adjust those local prices accordingly.

  • #272357

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano] But with any devaluation of a currency, the window of opportunity is limited, before people begin to adjust those local prices accordingly.
    [/QUOTE]
    So true. There was a post here or in a separate thread maintaining that the stronger dollar was restoring purchasing power for holders of dollars at the local supermarket. Until that window closes, that is, particularly for imported goods that we gringoes seem to like. In that case dollar holders are hedged, but imperfectly so, as the supermarket adds on margins to his inflated costs. So here dollar-holding gringoes are at least screwed a bit less than the locals.
    Just as European hotels, reeling from their own devaluing currency, are fast switching to dollar-denominated rates in time for the peak tourist season this spring. (Note: Brazil hotels have long learned that trick.)
    miguel2015-01-12 17:47:59

  • #272999

    jeb2886
    Member

    Woah, we hit 2.88 for the USD today. That was a nearly .10 jump in a week from 2.78 which I thought was getting a little high!

  • #273000

    ffm
    Member

    Yes! This was brought to my attention as well. A lot of people are calling 2.90 a resistance that if broken, the Real will seek $3.10, easy.

    Anyone else think the same? Doomsday sayers are saying $4.00 in the short/medium term is not out of the question.
  • #273002

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]Doomsday sayers are saying $4.00 in the short/medium term is not out of the question. [/QUOTE]
    Hip-hip hooray for the doomsayers!!! ClapShocked

  • #273003

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano][QUOTE=The Abbot]Doomsday sayers are saying $4.00 in the short/medium term is not out of the question. [/QUOTE]
    Hip-hip hooray for the doomsayers!!! ClapShocked
    [/QUOTE]

    No kidding!! It would appear that today I got a bit of a raise!
  • #273005

    ffm
    Member

    I am KICKING myself in the balls that I did not buy more dollars @ $2.20 this past July (under the table transaction) when I had Moroccan exchange students staying with us at our school. I let my boss buy up most of them. Cry

  • #273010

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]I am KICKING myself in the balls[/QUOTE]
    I think that’s a talent only you jujitsu/aikido guys possess…. LOL

  • #273018

    jeb2886
    Member

    A couple people were bitching and moaning about 20% gas price increase and 40% electricity increase.

    I wonder if there is a bigger reason behind that, like they planned to drop the real by at least 40% and needed to cover their costs of importing and producing power?
    If you knew you weren’t going to try and play a “peg the currency” game, this seems like a prudent first move. Get your government controlled imports increased, before allowing the currency to sink?
    If you want to buy up any dollars, I would just suggest going to the cambio house and looking for someone bringing in dollars from a trip, and exchanging with them. Split the difference with them, you’ll get about 3:1 with them that way. Typical cambio houses are 20 cents difference, with the sell being at market and buy at market+20 cents or so.
  • #273019

    Anonymous

    The currency will following the crude oil price. I read an article somewhere recently about the possibility of crude oil price falling all the way to $20 a barrel….I believe its around $50 a barrel now. If crude goes near $20/barrel then the USD to BRL can reach 3.75 and even go past 4.

    Right now the world supply of crude oil is higher than demand and the gap is widening. Another nice article here http://www.vox.com/2014/12/16/7401705/oil-prices-falling
    However, i wouldn’t bank on crude falling all the way to $20. If it gets close or gets there, I am sure “they” will create some chaos in the middle east to shoot the crude oil prices all the way past $100 a barrel!
    According to that Vox article “The Saudi government has built up $750 billion in foreign-exchange reserves to finance deficits.” They also refused to cut down their oil productions to stay in line with demand.
    I don’t think the Saudi’s will sit and watch the oil price fall to $20/barrel. I am sure they will use some of that reserve to fund some major ISIS attacks in foreign soil and the blame will go on some “sheep” country(ies) for supporting and harbouring terrorists….and the crude oil cycle will continue just like it did in the past 30 years or so.
    Best Investment at the moment: Crude oil….especially if it falls below $40/barrel. Even if you buy at the current price it is guaranteed to hit $100/barrel before 2017.

    sunnyrains2015-02-11 16:51:42

  • #273021

    jeb2886
    Member

    Actually, Saudi learned it’s lesson from the last embargo. World oil usage plummeted during those times and people started buying up more efficient cars (also the time when Japan finally got it’s foot in the US doors). The global growth never recovered after that event, it’s gone up, but not on the same trajectory that it was going up on before.

    Saudi will keep prices in the $50 range for as long as they can. The US has been adding millions of people to it’s economy over the past 7 years (normal rates) and yet gas demand has dropped roughly 10% from it’s peak!
    Saudi does not want that happening. While they make more profits at $100 barrel, they have enough oil to last long beyond the time when oil is useful, unless we start pushing that number forward with more and more fuel efficient cars. Electric cars are not harming them, what is harming them is the 12mpg SUV to 30+mpg smaller car or 40+ with a hybrid car. That’s almost a 75% reduction in gas usage right there!
    Put another way — we’re not running out of oil, we’re running out of usefulness for it.
    And the lower oil prices is working. Just look at Ford SUV sales, WAY up.
    We might hit $20/barrel to shake out some of the competition, but we’re probably going to stay sub $50 for a long time.
  • #273023

    agri2001
    Participant

    The $50 a barrel or lower has little to do with demand it all has to do with the geo political situation in the ME.
    The price of oil does not come down from $125 barrel to $50 in matter of 8 months because of fuel efficiency. That takes time… a long time for it to happen

    The Saudis want to destroy economically their nemesis-The Iranians and their proxies the Iraqis, which are controlled by the Shiites at the moment.
    This is a fight over power of the region through an economic/religious strangle hold via the production of petroleum.
    Of course the USA is also prodding the Saudis along in hopes that they can force a nuclear deal with the Iranians.
    All in all it is far more complicated then you and I can fathom.
  • #273024

    Serrano
    Participant

    Excellent observation Agri! All of this is indeed about geo-politics, particularly preserving the dominance of the petro-dollar (USD) as the global reserve currency. We need to add to the Saudi/Iranian equation, US vs Russia.
    A brief history lesson here to help ‘uncomplicate’ the equation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P02vjiEZyUs
    Gringo.Serrano2015-02-11 18:25:13

  • #273027

    scotty447
    Member
    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Woah, we hit 2.88 for the USD today. That was a nearly .10 jump in a week from 2.78 which I thought was getting a little high! [/QUOTE]

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]Yes! This was brought to my attention as well. A lot of people are calling 2.90 a resistance that if broken, the Real will seek $3.10, easy. [/QUOTE]

    Big smileBig smile

    ganeshrkara2015-02-11 23:15:25

  • #273059

    Serrano
    Participant

    The numbers speak for themselves….

  • #273142

    wtdknknm
    Member

    Just a couple of weeks ago the Real stood at 3.87 against the GBP…..today it is at 4.36….???? Ouch
    Is it ever going to drop back below 3.8 – 3.9??

  • #273145

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Hi G.Serrano gotcha pretty good post and I like how open you speak your mind. Along the lines when the SHTF do you think living close to the coast is a good idea? Water is running out in a country that has one of the largest aquafar in the world which doesn’t add up and that might have to do with thestrange weather patterns all over the world – you know earthquakes volcano activity etc. But going back to the subject it’s tough to predict really the market the stocks as all is being manipulated and doesn’t reflect actual numbers. For instance tio Sam continues to print money, the west coast exports is in dire situation which will affect the GDP , bricks and Asia are trading without the dollar but here we are at 2.80 ? Could that be currency war? What I am going to buy tons of dollars before it goes up over 3.00 and the next day the dollar crash – is that even a possibility some day that could happen just like that.

  • #273146

    celso
    Member

    At most major airports in the US, the taxis are Toyota Priuses with 40+ mpg replacing the Crown Vic 14 mpg old police car cabs. The Crown Vic is more fun but cabbies love the gas milage of the Prius.
    US no longer flooding worlld with dollars to buy oil and fed will start tightening so Real to slide past 3.0 then end the year at 4.0 to the dollar.
    Levy is no longer fighting to keep an over valued Real. The over valued Real helped Petrobras import capital goods and helped the Brassers buying stuff abroad. That will start to so down a bit.
    Brazil with Dilma is slip sliding away….

  • #273147

    Winlearn
    Member

    Brazil is slowly going down the toilet but I have a plan b … do you ?

  • #273148

    jeb2886
    Member

    The reality is, the government controls very little of the economy. It says they control it, it says they do all kinds of wonderful things to make it grow, but they don’t.

    Just look at the US GDP growth over the last 70 years.
    I don’t anyone could look at that, and point out 5 historical events that took place and moved that line. It’s flat for a reason, because there are only two things that move GDP, productivity and population increases.
    Brazil has run out of workers. It doesn’t have a real immigration policy in place to attract others. I guess you could say this is something the government can control, but usually it’s done a pretty consistent level, as seen in the US. Enough people are let in to fill jobs, but not enough to saturate the market.
    The other thing is productivity, and the whole Brazilian job mentality is all about doing everything they can to prevent productivity increases.
    This slippery slope is something the country was on a path towards for a long time.
    Recessions come, people hunker down, and generally the population at large uses the time to dig themselves out of debt, and eventually one day turns around and ramps up spending again.
    But the currency is going down, and it should. It will prevent chinese goods from flooding the market, and make things like iphones insanely expensive again. Even if all taxes are removed, they will be prohibitively expensive. At least people won’t bitch about not being able to buy one because of the taxes…
  • #273226

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    GBF this is my 2 cents – brics is trading without the dollar and most likely will continue. Perhaps Brazil is encouraging exports with fx at 2.83. But it’s also Brazil’s best interest to encourage imports for the hefty taxes they collect on duties and taxes. But the economy is slowing down. This is a good time for exports – there are opportunities open now. The West coast ports finally came to a complete shutdown. If it gets to 4.00 it makes goods too expensive thus unaffordable.

  • #273231

    jeb2886
    Member

    The BRIC’s are all in major sh*t. Chinese economy is slowing way down, has some real estate issues as well. Although that is good, the growth path they were on was insane for the last few decades. Russia is screwed completely and we’re going to see how screwew they are in the next 6 months as oil and sanctions start screwing them over, the Indian rupee has been doing very badly, their real estate market is a mess, and they’ve been working on outsourcing services, leaping over the manufacturing which everyone said was a bad idea, but they have nothing to sell to Brazil. The only BRIC producing anything, other than raw resources is basically China!

    Exports should go up in Brazil though,but compared with the total economy, it’s probably not worth that much, great for those who do it though! The last export graph I saw, showed basically raw materials and/or food items. So the majority of exports aren’t going to see a major boost, unless it’s giving away raw resources for even less now!
    It’s definitely going to become a lot more expensive for someone to travel to the US to shop now! And chinese goods are definitely going to skyrocket in costs here! Hopefully that will help improve some manufacturing around here.
  • #273233

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=FanC]Hi G.Serrano gotcha pretty good post and I like how open you speak your mind. Along the lines when the SHTF do you think living close to the coast is a good idea? Water is running out in a country that has one of the largest aquafar in the world which doesn’t add up and that might have to do with the strange weather patterns all over the world – you know earthquakes volcano activity etc. But going back to the subject it’s tough to predictreally the market the stocks as all is being manipulated and doesn’t reflect actual numbers. For instance tio Sam continues to print money, the west coast exports is in dire situation which will affect the GDP , bricks and Asia are trading without the dollar but here we are at 2.80 ? Could that be currency war? What I am going to buy tons of dollars before it goes up over 3.00 and the next day the dollar crash – is that even a possibility some day that could happen just like that. [/QUOTE]

    Yes, it IStough to predict! One can only observe patterns and ‘phenomenon’,then based on that (and maybe also the tea leaves at the bottom of acup) ‘predict’ (forecast) what might come next. But just asthe weather forecast for rain tomorrow might be based on the bestinformation available at the moment, an advancing cold front, thefront may slow, or even stall, and the rain preceedingit might not actually arrive until a day or two after it was’predicted’. Sometimes, when it finally does arrive, it has lessprecipitation that what as was predicted Yet sometimes, it’s moreintense.

    Brasil is notrunning out of water. Sampa and Rio, two megalopolis regions withinsane population levels, are running out of water, because of lowrainfall. Sampa has approx. 9,000 people per square kilometer. Onetoilet flush consumes approx. five liters of water. Meaning, in onemere sq km of Sao Paulo, those 9,000 people send 45,000 liters ofwater, potable water, into the sewer! And that’s just one flush aday, not even taking into consideration washing dishes, personalbathing, or clothes washing. This is obviously unsustainable.

    The populationdensity of the LARGEST city closest to where I’m now living, which isa few hours away, is approximately 60 people per sq km. Again,that’s the largest city. I can’t begin to guess the ‘lesser than’numbers in my immediate locale. There are probably more cattle thanpeople per km2. In this region we had heavy rainfall from mid-Decuntil just recently. For several weeks it rained every single damnday, and it came down in buckets, not drops. No drought here, nope. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have one next summer. You don’t needto be a meteorologist to know the weather is whacked, everywhere onEarth. The effects of global warming? Who really knows. But I doknow this, the majority of humankind treats the planet with completeignorance and total disregard as to the cumulative effects of his/herown stupidity and selfishness.

    As for your question about living on thecoast, you should probably consider that some island nations (Maldives and Kiribatifor example), as well as certain cities along the US eastcoast (Boston, NYC and Ft. Lauderdale for example),are makingcontingent plans for rising sea levels. I was in Miami not long ago, and went to South Beach one day. Inoticed a lot of water on the streets, but it hadn’t been raining. Icommented about that to the friend who was driving, and was told thatsea water ‘occasionally’ comes up through the storm drains and out onto the streets. So that means either Miami Beach is sinking, or theocean is rising. The beach near my house in Floripa is a fraction ofwhat existed when I first arrived there several years ago. Is itjust erosion of the beach, the natural shifting of sands, or highersea levels? Yet aside from this gradual effect, it was watchingthe frightening destructive power of the tsunami that obliteratedFukushima, whichconvinced me I no longer wanted to live a few minutes walk from thebeach. Sure, what are the odds, you may say? But there’s only onebullet in the revolver’s cylinder in Russian Roulette. Knowing that,would you still play?

    And as for themarkets being manipulated, the excessive printing of fiat currency bya private cartel run by the world’s mostpowerful bankers, who are accountable to no one, a debt-based economy(18 trillion in the hole to date) dependent on me-me-me consumerism,massive military expenditures by Tio, combined with a foreign policythat creates enemies, massive gov’t spending by Tia here in Brasil,combined with a domestic policy that steals from the rich,as well as the middle class, to give hand outs to the poor(and to the PT), etc, etc, one doesn’t need to have a doctorate insocio-economics to see that this type ofstreet is a dead-end. History is full of examples of nations thattook this same dead-end street, to one degree or another. Yet manypeople seem to think it can’t happen HERE. Denial is a common emotionaldefense mechanism.

    Personally,I don’t think there will be an overnight collapse of the USD, unlessthe country that prints it is bitch-slapped by Russia and/or Chinawith nukes (never say never). Such a slap doesn’t mean cities andpeople are turned to radioactive dust. Several explosions high inthe atmosphere will literally fry and render unusable everyelectronic device that has micro-circuitry, due to the EMP emitted. Virtually all forms of communication and transportation will ceasefunctioning. The power-grid will fail. The entire country willrevert to how life was lived a century ago. With the presentcentralized warehouse distribution system, stores will run out offood within 3-5 days. Societal chaos then ensues. Bem-vindo martiallaw. Maybe that’s why the Heimlandsecurity force has purchasedbillions of rounds of ammunition, including hollow pointbullets? Whatever the reason, something’s afoot. And if anyonethinks anything mentioned in this paragraph is tinfoil hat conspiracytheories,perform your own due diligence, and you will quickly learn that theseare very plausible scenarios based on the present facts, not fiction. Flip a coin as to which nightmare you prefer.

    Asidefrom such an immense catastrophe, which will undoubtedly turn theworld markets upside down, I think we’ll continue to see moderate butsignificant strategic moves by Russia, China, and Iran to circumventthe petro-dollar, which will give other countries (on good terms withRussia, China and Iran) the courage to do the same. I read not toolong ago that Germany wants to join the BRICS. They want more tradewith Russia, but Tio says, “You can’t be my friend and their friendtoo”. Yet if I stored MY gold at the house of this friend, andwhen I asked for it back, he refused to return it (or more correctly,he says “Ummm, maybe…in a few years….”),is he really my friend, and will I continue to trust him?!? ShouldGermany ever abandon the petro-dollar, all of the EU will jump shiptoo. Game over for the USD.

    Ratherthan buying another type of paper currency, unless you intend to usethe money as a medium of exchange to buy real estate sometime soon,or enhance the infrastructure of property you already own, maybe buysome silver? Personally, I think owning silver as a portion of yourassets is wiser than investing in gold. Silver is more affordable(now) for most people, and it will be easier to ‘spend’ than gold,when prices rise (though expect a dip here and there). If goldshould go to say, $6,000 per ounce, how do you ask for change whentrading it for something of a lesser value?! And as those of us wholive in Brasil know quite well, no one ever has change!LOL

    Seevideo links below for additional considerations about this type ofinvestment. The messenger is not the most dynamic with hispresentation, but I believe his premise is sound. YMMV.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZIvdsRD-ws

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLC4qfX5p1g

    Theproblem with preciousmetals thoughisyou need a safe place to store it, and you need to keep your mouthshut about where it’s stored. That means not even telling familymembers (except in your will). I’m not keen on the idea of storingthis type of investment somewhere overseas, such as Singapore, whichhas a good reputation as a safe and confidential place for preciousmetal storage. The thought of having to fly from Brasil toSingapore, and the accompanying jet-lag, just to retrieve/liquidatean investment gives me a massiveheadache! I want the metal physically close to me. Maybe not insidemy house, but certainly within driving distance.

    However,IMO any precious metal is only for intermediate use during a possibleSHTF event. My preferred long term play is fertile land (ifpossible, with a clean freshwater source). They don’t make thatstuff anymore (and it’s rather difficult to steal). Brasil still hasamazing bargains in this regard! Even not-so-fertile land can beturnedinto rich soil over ashort period of time by initially planting green manure crops (abudoverde), and then turning them under. If managed well, just a coupleof hectares can produce a helluva lot of food! The one exception isbeach sand. Have you ever tried to grow something in that medium(other than a coconut plantation)?Wink

    Lastly, and really only of interestfor prole of Tio Sam living in Brasil, or any other foreign country:Personally held real estate, as well as precious metals you actuallyretain in your possession, will not show up on the FATCA radarscreen. As for your middle finger salute to Tio, I’m not sure aboutthat.Big smile

    Mymantra: Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

    My hope is waning….

    Gringo.Serrano2015-02-20 09:51:18

  • #273236

    jeb2886
    Member

    Bah, Florida is NOT sinking. I’ve talked to civil engineers about this, and it’s all about the land makeup. Florida FLOATS. Oceans rise and it will literally float up, just like mexico city is sinking as they draw down their ground water aquifers, Floridas will fill up with salt water and float the city up. People always bitch about Florida, but it’s in zero danger. Now NYC, that doesn’t float.

    There are catastrophic events that cause harm every, the tsunamis were especially devastating because people didn’t know what was going on. The waters didn’t really kill anyone, and neither did the water coming in, what killed people were the water going out, with all the debris in it. Concrete structures held up fine, lots of things held up fine. What didn’t hold up fine where stick and twig houses that that area builds with. Digging up the land around an area will tell you were tsunamis in the past have hit and where they haven’t. Earthquakes will take you down in the mountains very quickly too — and anything with a mountain is because there are tectonic plates around.
    If you’re going to be scared of anything, it’s rivers. Rivers WITHOUT dams. Dams prevent flooding, but if you look at the last 100 years of deaths, river floodings are the biggest killers. 800K killed in china during one flood. Twice the number during that tsunami. That’s one flood.
    Metals are terrible investment, if shtf, the only value in a metal is what others will give you for it. And if the economy collapsed to the point where these metals might be of some use, people won’t accept them. What can someone do with a piece of gold or silver? Nothing. Give them a chicken. Gold and silver are used when there are proper trading partners around that know the current values of gold. I can guarantee you, if shtf and you’re in the mountains and you present a piece of gold to anyone in your city, they won’t accept it. They’ll simply say “everyone is starving, and you want to give me gold? go find food and give that to me”. If shtf, then there won’t be enough communications to create a market for gold or any use for it. But if there are enough communications out there, then governments will still exist and they’ll reprint a new currency that everyone will accept.
    Try and pay for a loaf of bread with gold. Explain to them this spec of sand, is enough to cover the cost of the bread. If no one has gold, they won’t accept it as a currency. If you’re the only one with gold, then no one is going to trade with you. No point. Metals are 100% useless unless there are governments in place. They don’t increase in value, other than inflation and when they’re seen as the most useful, they’ll be totally useless.
    As far as currencies not using the USD, the only reason they use the USD is because they don’t want some sh*tty reals sitting in their wallets. Unless you can keep the balance at nearly $0, no one is going to trade in Reals, rubbles, or yuan. They don’t want those sh*tty currencies in their wallets. If you have $100 of stuff to give them, and they have $100 to give you, fine. Trade away. But if it’s $500 versus $100, then they want the change in USD. Because every other currency can be totally screwed. Rubles are worth nothing now. India’s rupees have been devaluing like made for the last few years. Yuan is simply pegged to the USD, why not just get USD and not have to worry about yuan issues? What if they pull a swiss franc over night and totally screw everyone holding them? And the real? It’s been losing ground for years. Who wants a currency that’s been steadily losing ground for the last 4 years and has seen accelerated losses? People might trade in whatever random currency is out there, but at the end of the day, they’re going to trade it back to their currency or the USD where it’s safe.
    The only truly valuable asset to hold is land. It will follow inflation and will produce money via rents. Therefore, it doesn’t matter what happens to the underlying currency, the value of the land will remain the same and it will be based off salaries. If it’s a house a doctor would live in, and he makes 500 kitkat bars a month, then it will be worth whatever the doctor makes in new cadbury eggs. It simply doesn’t matter what the currency is for land, it will be worth the same value in any new currency and it will continue to produce rent in that new currency as well.
  • #273237

    Serrano
    Participant

    The facts, not mere opinion…. While the USD has indeed recently outpaced silver, over a twenty and even thirty year timeline, the value of silver has surpassed the declining value of the USD.

    Link: https://smaulgld.com/silver-vs-dollar/
    The USD still reigns as the global reserve currency because of the petro-dollar. If other countries weren’t forced to use USDs to pay for oil, the USD would be toast.

  • #273238

    jeb2886
    Member

    The USD is the global reserve currency because of MANUFACTURING. Please, get that one straight. The US manufactures 23% of the worlds goods. Guess what it manufactured in the 80’s when manufacturing jobs were declining and it was all going over seas? You’re right! 23% of the world goods. It hasn’t changed much in the last 40 years because we manufacture better quality items, higher value items and we do it more efficiently (fewer jobs). This is why manufacturing is never coming back to the US, becasue we already have 23% of the worlds output. The US already produces more than it’s fair share of goods.

    And guess what, if the USD disappeared over night, and was replaced with kitkat bars, every major country would adjust their exchange rate to be in line with US manufacturing, because they can’t have cheap US manufactured goods coming into their countries because it would slaughter their ability to compete globally or locally.
    The US dollar is might because it has so much manufacturing behind it.
    As for metals, it’s basically taken 300oz’s of gold to purchase a house throughout history — why, because gold follows inflation. You’re showing a 40 year sample there. You need 100-200 years. Not to mention, silver has more uses than gold in manufacturing, which gives it boost to it’s value as demand has risen. Gold has nearly 40% of it’s uses tied up in jewellery. But then again, should the economy collapse and silver wasn’t useful to those manufacturing things that couldn’t be bought.. it would tumble like there was no tomorrow and you would be left with something useless.
    During a melt down, someone who produces food will be who has control, not someone holding gold. Just look at the gold rushes and how many people made it out of there with their fortunes. Shop keepers simply setup base and said these are the prices, you have no options, leave it or take it. Same with gold and food. You want this chicken, I’ll take ALL your gold, not some flake.. you can leave it and starve or take it.
  • #273239

    celso
    Member

    Problem with land in Brazil. PT will find a way to tax and steal land held for speculation.

  • #273240

    Serrano
    Participant

    Maybe. But waaay before that happens, they’ll tax and steal from your bank account.
    Listened to a podcast the other day talking about how the state of Pennsylvania has a new law stating that if your bank account has been ‘inactive’ for a certain period, they have the right to close the account and the funds go directly to the public coffers! Confused

  • #273241

    jeb2886
    Member

    Bah, what is your tax bill going to go up to on property? Double? triple? quadruple? good lord, the taxes on property are nothing here, even in the city. Out in rural areas it’s even less!

    The last time they locked up everyones bank accounts, it was to try and stem inflation. It took several attempts and they finally got it. Any money in those accounts would have been worthless in a few months anyway, inflation was destroying everything so quickly anyway. It wasn’t a money grab, they didn’t take the money. They simply didn’t let people spend it — which is the problem with inflation, money going around faster and faster because no one wants to hold onto the hot potato! By locking the accounts, they forced everyone to hold the hot potato while they worked on inflation.
  • #273242

    celso
    Member

    I agree there are still deals to be made. I saw two properties sell at great prices after owners grew old and kids insisted on selling. Also estate sales where owners moved away and died. One was a Swiss who bought on the strong real and took a large loss on the bad fx. I am starting to see more deals like that. Beach summer properties NE Brazil.

  • #273244

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] The USD is the global reserve currency because of MANUFACTURING. Please, get that one straight..

    [/QUOTE]

    This issimply not the case. The US dollar enjoys its status as the global reservecurrency – or what should be otherwise referred to as the petrodollar – becauseof an agreement that is tantamount to a protection racket that started back in1973 and instigated by President Nixon. Nixon having crashed the dollar when hetook it off the gold standard in 1971 redeemed some semblance of otherwise veryshaky credibility by promising US military protection and weaponry providedthat Saudi Arabia trade its oil exclusively in US dollars. The rest is acomplex economic history and bloody wars. The dollar has nothing backing itother than a government promise that has the same credibility of the Emperor’smagic clothes.

  • #273245

    jeb2886
    Member

    And that is simply nice, but not what backs the US dollar. Manufacturing backs it. Otherwise Europe could say “Euro is 50:1!” great our oil is now $1 a barrel! Woo! 5 cents a gallon gas in europe! If it’s only due to oil, then that would be possible.

    But they can’t, because the USD would completely destroy their entire manufacturing economy overnight with masses of imports coming from the US. While Ford/GM might not make the best cars, if it was $500 now instead of $25000, no one is going to take a 25K VW.
    What supports the US dollar is all the manufacturing it does. That is what sets the value of the USD against any other currency, they can’t simply choose a value, unless it matches their manufacturing output.
  • #273247

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]And that is simply nice, but not what backs the US dollar. Manufacturing backs it. Otherwise Europe could say “Euro is 50:1!” great our oil is now $1 a barrel! Woo! 5 cents a gallon gas in europe! If it’s only due to oil, then that would be possible.

    But they can’t, because the USD would completely destroy their entire manufacturing economy overnight with masses of imports coming from the US. While Ford/GM might not make the best cars, if it was $500 now instead of $25000, no one is going to take a 25K VW.
    What supports the US dollar is all the manufacturing it does. That is what sets the value of the USD against any other currency, they can’t simply choose a value, unless it matches their manufacturing output.

    [/QUOTE]

    This commentmakes no practical or economic sense whatsoever; a manifestation of American self-importance?Imagine what the current high value dollar is doing to reverse the US economy.And yet that, too, is unimportant while the printing presses stand ready toissue even more √¢‚ǨÀúmagic’ money.

  • #273248

    Serrano
    Participant

    JK, with all due respect, WTF are you rambling on about?!? The PETRODOLLAR is what makes the world go round bro! The sleazy agreements made by Tio Sam with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations has been running the casino of global economy the past +/- 40 years.
    While everyone has the right to their opinion on here, there are some convos that can only be taken seriously with factual info and/or links. I posted this on page 2 of this thread, and evidently you didn’t bother to watch it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P02vjiEZyUs
    I challenge you to provide FACTS that refute/disprove the historically verifiable eventscontained in that video.
    Also, your claims about ‘manufacturing’ as being what gives the USD clout would be more meaningful (and possibly believable) if you provided FACTS to back up your pro-dollar opinion.
    Gringo.Serrano2015-02-18 18:53:45

  • #273253

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    If that’s true that manufacturing backs the dollar then we are in real trouble. There is not much more demand of the dollar anymore. We have basically paper backing up the dollar. Hate to break it to you but the West Coast port labor disruptions is going to have a great impact on the GDP . I dealing with logistics nightmare every day. The mainstream media headlines was ports reopen on Monday but nothing has changed. Meanwhile the dollar is going up making goods too expensive on top of port issues and yes, importers are buying from other countries. Exports also backs the dollar.

  • #273254

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    GS thanks for the reply ! I don’t care if you have the Maldives on the wrong side of the ocean Yes read get educated but also watch.

  • #273255

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Hey Terry play nice. If you want to give your two cents about the subject then please I want to hear it but no name calling.

  • #273257

    jeb2886
    Member

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2013/04/22/gold-bugs-swatted-again/

    Gold prices over 300 years, aside from a jump in the 70’s and in the last few years, it’s followed inflation. If you had bought in the 70’s you would have had to wait 30 years to get your money back, or taken huge losses.
    Toss in whatever year you want, and the US is #1-2, sharing the spot with the whole european union, done by country it’s the US on top every year. Add them all up and find out what portion the US has been doing if you really wanted to. But it stays at roughly the same amount per year.
    US productivity, steady at 2.3 over the last 70 years.
    USD GDP, follows inflation + 2.3%, a near perfect line, doesn’t matter what government is in power, wars or recession, keeps growing.
    Set to 1900- to present, perfect line of population increase, allowed via immigration policies of course.
    These are the numbers, people can talk about oil reserve dollars and everything else, but the USD is backed by these numbers. They’re solid, they’re stable and they show how competitive the US has been historically. They might claim that the US is the reserve because of oil, but it’s a reserve because it’s stable.
    Almost every major country produces it’s own oil, only a small amount of oil is surplus and shipped around the world to shore up those countries who need extra. Considering the US sucks up a good amount of that extra oil, and the fact that Russia is the biggest producer of oil, trying to claim the USD is a reserve because of oil is stretching it. People trust the USD and it has sold backings.
    The US consumes a HUGE amount of all the oil in the world! Historically, it looks like the US consumed more than the rest of the world. Considering the rest of the world also produces it’s own oil, the net amount of oil for those countries that they need to trade in USD is minimal.
    And manufacturing does NOT mean exporting. Every port in the US could be shut down and it wouldn’t do much to manufacturing, the US consumes almost everything it manufactures. It’s import and export account for about 10-13% of it’s total GDP.
    There, plenty of actual data to rummage through, and not conspiracies.
  • #273258

    jeb2886
    Member

    An interesting side note on oil, inflation and PBR. My wife dug up some information after people started bitching about gas going up, while oil went down.

    What she found was PBR has been locked into pricing it’s oil at a set amount. The reason for this was to achieve the inflation goals of 6%. By forcing pbr to sell at basically R$3/l over all these years, a good part of inflation was locked down. Terrible for pbr of course, and seen in their earnings and stock prices.
    Now that they’re letting gas go, they obviously don’t care about hitting that 6% inflation number that was so magical before.
    I knew the prices had been locked for a long time, I didn’t really think about how they would play into calculating out inflation though and how it would help brazil meet it’s 6% numbers.
  • #273259

    ClaudePeebles
    Participant

    [QUOTE=FanC]Hey Terry play nice. If you want to give your two cents about the subject then please I want to hear it but no name calling. [/QUOTE]

    Ha ha, I always play nice…..
    Clearly your’e not aware GS is a previous member banned from this site for chronic abuse of other members, who has returned to start the cycle again…the forum was peaceful until he came along so just giving him what he deserves…
    Watch this space, the responses are so predictable.
  • #273261

    ffm
    Member

    WTF?!?!?!?!?!

    Government is affirming that they will “not confiscate savings accounts” Who was saying they were? Is this a way of softening the public up to the idea in an Orwellian way?
    Terry2- you are the ONLY one who seems to have a beef with GS so go sit back down.
  • #273267

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=FanC]GS thanks for the reply ! I don’t care if you have the Maldives on the wrong side of the ocean Yes read get educated but also watch. [/QUOTE]
    Yes, realized my mistake last night, and should read “island nations”. Will make necessary correction.
    Oh, and Miss Special, while you’re pointing out the speck in my eye, I wasn’t aware that Palho√ɬßa was considered the ‘interior’ of Brasil. LOL
    As for the other time-waster who has crawled out from under his rock… I have no time for wanna-be artists whose only real talent is knitting sock puppets.

  • #273269

    ClaudePeebles
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]Terry2- you are the ONLY one who seems to have a beef with GS so go sit back down[/QUOTE]

    Wow, that’s a bit rich coming from somebody who’s also been banned (under another name) from the forum for abuse.
    As for Goofball.floripa, AKA GS your’e totally wrong, there’s been quite a number of members who think he’s a total jerk, however not all have stood up to him.
    He’s also totally wrong about many other things, including my occupation which he seems to make up just so he can be his nasty self about it…he’s not nice at all, just pretends to be.
    Have a nice day…and I did tell you the response would be so predictable, I would have put money on the rock part 🙂
  • #273273

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Terry_2][QUOTE=The Abbot]Terry2- you are the ONLY one who seems to have a beef with GS so go sit back down[/QUOTE]

    Wow, that’s a bit rich coming from somebody who’s also been banned (under another name) from the forum for abuse.

    [/QUOTE]

    I was banned but not for abuse. Get your story straight, bag of Summer’s Eve. Wink
  • #273277

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot][QUOTE=Terry_2][QUOTE=The Abbot]Terry2- you are the ONLY one who seems to have a beef with GS so go sit back down[/QUOTE]

    Wow, that’s a bit rich coming from somebody who’s also been banned (under another name) from the forum for abuse.[/QUOTE]
    I was banned but not for abuse. Get your story straight, bag of Summer’s Eve. Wink

    [/QUOTE]
    “A bit rich”?!? Now THAT is the pot calling the kettle black! I’ve lost count of how many sock puppets have been banned that were the creation of one singular saco cheio.
    And he stillseems to have a pau duro for GF/GS. How flattering! Embarrassed
    Summer’s Eve… LOLLOLLOL
    Touché Pauli!
    Gringo.Serrano2015-02-19 14:50:24

  • #273278

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2013/04/22/gold-bugs-swatted-again/

    Gold prices over 300 years, aside from a jump in the 70’s and in the last few years, it’s followed inflation. If you had bought in the 70’s you would have had to wait 30 years to get your money back, or taken huge losses.
    Toss in whatever year you want, and the US is #1-2, sharing the spot with the whole european union, done by country it’s the US on top every year. Add them all up and find out what portion the US has been doing if you really wanted to. But it stays at roughly the same amount per year.
    US productivity, steady at 2.3 over the last 70 years.
    USD GDP, follows inflation + 2.3%, a near perfect line, doesn’t matter what government is in power, wars or recession, keeps growing.
    Set to 1900- to present, perfect line of population increase, allowed via immigration policies of course.
    These are the numbers, people can talk about oil reserve dollars and everything else, but the USD is backed by these numbers. They’re solid, they’re stable and they show how competitive the US has been historically. They might claim that the US is the reserve because of oil, but it’s a reserve because it’s stable.
    Almost every major country produces it’s own oil, only a small amount of oil is surplus and shipped around the world to shore up those countries who need extra. Considering the US sucks up a good amount of that extra oil, and the fact that Russia is the biggest producer of oil, trying to claim the USD is a reserve because of oil is stretching it. People trust the USD and it has sold backings.
    The US consumes a HUGE amount of all the oil in the world! Historically, it looks like the US consumed more than the rest of the world. Considering the rest of the world also produces it’s own oil, the net amount of oil for those countries that they need to trade in USD is minimal.
    And manufacturing does NOT mean exporting. Every port in the US could be shut down and it wouldn’t do much to manufacturing, the US consumes almost everything it manufactures. It’s import and export account for about 10-13% of it’s total GDP.
    There, plenty of actual data to rummage through, and not conspiracies.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think that you choose to misunderstandthe concept of a reserve currency. It is necessary to leave aside the issue of oilas a commodity, together with its derivatives, its various producers andleading consumers or even price if we are to understand why the dollar is theglobal reserve currency; a universally accepted trading currency. Despite therebeing no tangible value backing the dollar, the global community has faith; nothingmore than a fragile confidence in the elusive greenback. The dollar is FIATmoney having no value other than government decree.

    The US dollar is used as amethod of payment in international trade. Any trading partner wishing to engagein international commerce will calculate the value of its goods or services inlocal currency and then, via variable exchange rate conversion, quote and invoiceand be paid in US dollars.

    A reserve currency isnecessary and this necessity is best illustrated by the following simple example:Zambia needs to import pharmaceuticals. The local currency is the Kwacha and sothey would otherwise make payment in Kwacha; a dubious currency that few if anywould wish to have in their bank accounts. To overcome this impasse Zambia exportscopper and is paid in the dollars that provide the hard currency with which itcan pay for pharmaceuticals. In the absence of a reserve currency the world’sbank accounts would be filled with numerous ragtag currencies lacking theflexibility of universal acceptance.

    A further example thatillustrates the vital importance of having the printing presses for a reservecurrency or, in other words, the ability to create money out of thin air and indoing so also create an unimaginable and an unrepayable mountain of debt: Imaginea rogue nation. Let’s use any major oil producer: why not Iraq? Let’s say Iraq decidesto sell its oil in exchange not for dollars but instead, Euros or Yuan. Iraqsuddenly and overnight becomes a fearsome and urgent threat to global securityand is accused of having weapons capable of the mass destruction of the reservecurrency √¢‚Ǩ‚Äú em, no, correction – just mass destruction. You can fool all of thepeople some of the time and some of the people all of the time.

  • #273279

    scotty447
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano][QUOTE=The Abbot][QUOTE=Terry_2][QUOTE=The Abbot]Terry2- you are the ONLY one who seems to have a beef with GS so go sit back down[/QUOTE]

    Wow, that’s a bit rich coming from somebody who’s also been banned (under another name) from the forum for abuse.[/QUOTE]
    I was banned but not for abuse. Get your story straight, bag of Summer’s Eve. Wink

    [/QUOTE]
    “A bit rich”?!? Now THAT is the pot calling the kettle black! I’ve lost count of how many sock puppets have been banned that were the creation of one singular saco cheio.
    And he stillseems to have a pau duro for GF/GS. How flattering! Embarrassed
    Summer’s Eve… LOLLOLLOL
    Touché Pauli!
    [/QUOTE]

    Good old days are slowly coming back….Big smileBig smile

    ganeshrkara2015-02-19 15:29:52

  • #273283

    agri2001
    Participant

    Are we sporting for cat fight here????

  • #273284

    Serrano
    Participant

    No cat fight here. It’s a cock fight! Evil Smile

  • #273285

    Serrano
    Participant

    Back on topic… quase.
    [QUOTE=jkennedy]

    Almost every major country produces it’s own oil… [/QUOTE]
    The following figures are barrels per day, each country’s share of the global oil producing pie. In descending order.
    UK 1.78%
    Japan 0.19%
    France 0.08%
    Netherlands 0.07%
    Spain 0.03%
    Belgium 0.01%
    Sweden 0.01%
    Singapore 0.01%
    Switzerland 0.00%
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production
    [QUOTE=jkennedy]People trust the USD and it has solid backings.[/QUOTE]
    Ummm, ‘trust’ is purely subjective. Who one trusts today, can change overnight. Yet isn’t this trust you speak of more resignation to being forced to buy oil with USDs because of the petrodollar scheme, therefore the need to retain vaults full of Franklins in reserve?

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]And manufacturing does NOT mean exporting…[/QUOTE]

    Well, this completely changes your premise from last night, where you alluded to other countries wanting USDs so they could buy US manufactured goods!

    Gringo.Serrano2015-02-19 16:51:27

  • #273287

    celso
    Member

    Who trusts Dilma? Ha! How about that ugly Greek style statue on the Real notes? Not like euros famous scientists and artists. Not like dollars with famous presidents. Just a fake face on a fake currency.

  • #273303

    jeb2886
    Member

    @fila

    The US dollar is a fiat currency, so what? It’s backed by manufacturing. You don’t need to trust it at all, you just have to realize the USD is backed by strong manufacturing. If you choose not to believe in it, and run say the EU at 50:1, the US will destroy them over night, by exporting goods that will destroy their entire economy. Even though no one believed in the currency, it’s going to destroy their country by the sheer volume of imported goods. No country is that stupid, they tailor their currency rate around what the US can output. They need to adjust their currency so it’s in line with the productivity of workers in the US.
    @gs
    There are 115 countries producing oil on that list. Out of roughly 160 countries in the world. The biggest excess producers are Saudi and Russia. I can guarantee that if Russia wanted to trade to any country in rubbles, it could.
    Where you can see all the countries importing oil and how much. Aside from the EU, most of them are pretty small. Now considering Russia exports a good amount of that to the EU, that means they could accept oil in any currency they wanted. China could do the same.
    Now tally up all the rest of the oil come from other countries and see how much of their GDP it would actually account for. In most cases, next to nothing.
    Oil has to be traded in SOME currency, and the US currency also makes the most sense, especially back in the 50-90’s because the US was the largest buyer and consumer by a long shot. How would YOU price your product? You’re going to want top dollar, so you’re going to compare it via forex exchanges and see what the US is going to be willing to pay for it. It’s all getting priced in USD, but there are plenty of countries exporting oil, they can setup their own trading if they wanted. In most cases, they don’t want that.
    There isn’t any other choice other than USD, because it’s the USD doesn’t make it some conspiracy. They might have inked a deal to make it the USD but it was always going to be the USD because that is the only currency that makes sense. I know all about the deals they made, but in reality it wouldn’t have made any difference.
  • #273305

    Winlearn
    Member

    Why don’t you ask Mr. Know It All or I-Hate-America Gringo Serrano/Gringo Floripa ?

  • #273311

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]@fila

    The US dollar is a fiat currency, so what? It’s backed by manufacturing. You don’t need to trust it at all, you just have to realize the USD is backed by strong manufacturing. If you choose not to believe in it, and run say the EU at 50:1, the US will destroy them over night, by exporting goods that will destroy their entire economy. Even though no one believed in the currency, it’s going to destroy their country by the sheer volume of imported goods. No country is that stupid, they tailor their currency rate around what the US can output. They need to adjust their currency so it’s in line with the productivity of workers in the US.

    [/QUOTE]

    And to think that PaulKrugman was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for a lesseranalysis of the global forces that govern the connectivity of production,distribution, consumption, business, finance, macroeconomics and politics –well done JK!

    No longer does the almightydollar trust in God; apparently it now trusts in strong manufacturing subsidisedand outsourced to millions of cheap foreign workers. Despite this small exampleof globalisation, the US government still manages to add to its $17.8 trilliondebt at the rate of near $500 billion year on year. Ah, the sweet smell of success! Thanks for the chuckle JK. LOL

  • #273313

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Well, the ports are still crawling and every day by the hour departures get delayed even further. It spilled over to Vancouver, Canada, another logistic headache. The ports labor slowdown started back in November and as we are heading to 1st quarter, IF labor issues are resolved this month, it will take at least 2 months for the ports to clear out congestions and backlogs. I’ll be surprise if the upcomings GDP will show growth. What else is there ? That we are not importing the same level as we normally do because the ports are congested. I say it’ll go up to 3.00 mid March.

  • #273315

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    It’s just been announced later today that the dispute has been settled and ports operations will start tomorrow evening. Yes !

  • #273322

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=38 Special]Why don’t you ask Mr. Know It All or I-Hate-America Gringo Serrano/Gringo Floripa ?[/QUOTE]
    “Without debate, without criticism… no country can succeed, and no republic can survive.”
    ~President John F. Kennedy~
    “But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism,it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.
    ~Declaration of Independence~ 1776
    [QUOTE=38 Special]dude you are so bored with life that you have to give us this garbage? why don’t you volunteer and help poor kids or displaced animals?[/QUOTE]
    Are you inferring by your mocking that these activities are something to be ashamed of, or a waste of time? This reveals your true nature. And you are doing what with your life (other than knitting sock puppets)???
    No one on here cares about your personal vendetta against me, especially me! So put a ‘sock’ in it.
    EDIT: And that goes for the other personas/accounts you have on here as well. The long time members of this forum are quite aware of what they are, and you only continue to make a fool of yourself by posting your caustic remarks, hiding behind multiple masks.
    Why some people refuse to get a life, I’ll never comprehend. Time to move on amigo. Let it go. Move on….
    Gringo.Serrano2015-02-21 11:04:51

  • #273353

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Terry_2]Wow, true colors coming out now..the anger and rage with so much paranoia about it being just one person…well take a good look, there’s more than one…in fact many in the past who’ve despised your attitude[/QUOTE]

    @Terrybly_2_Boring: Angeris what I have when a bag of summer’s eve, who is number 15 in a lineof cars, tries to pass the other 14 cars in front of him, just as weare all approaching a blind curve, going down a steep hill. Rage iswhat I’d then have when I then witness the same bag of summer’s eveattempt to cut back into the proper lane, so as not to receive thekiss of death from the front end of an approaching truck, but when heswerves back into his lane, he forces a family of four traveling intheir Fiat Uno off the road, and they die.

    Don’t ever presume youknow my emotions.

    As forparanoia, WTF are you talking about?! Paranoid of what? You?!? LOLLOLLOL

    You’re gonna make me piss in my pants fromlaughing! Do you really think not only I, but the other members ifthis forum are s√ɬ≥ stupid as to not realize there is one human beingusing two different profiles, to launch his vitriol and ridicule atme? The proof is in the pudding, er, posts. Back to back, the sametwo forum members, not once, but twice now. You’re getting sloppy. What happened,did you forget the passwords for the other fifty socks in yourgringoes draw?

    Butlet’s stop for a minute and say that these are two distinctindividuals. Let’s look at what youposted,and we’ll leave Nothing_Special out of this.

    [QUOTE=Terry_2]BTW, the Maldives are in the Indian Ocean, not the Pacific…moron.[/QUOTE]

    Iknow you won’t believe me, but I doknow where the Maldives are located. That was a long post and I didlots of editing. The error was due to that and not ignorance. Yetin an on-line community of legitimate forum members, whose intent isto inform, and even assist one another, you could have postedsomething like this: “Hey GS, you might want to get out your atlasand check the location of the Maldives.” But no, you had to resortto childish name calling.

    Gota news flash for you, calling me names accomplishes nothing. Ziltch. Water off a duck’s back. I think I overcame the insecurity of beingcalled names in third or fourth grade. Did you never learn the adage”Sticks and stones can break my bones, but wordswill never hurt me”? Come on man, isn’t it time to mature?

    Your continual harassment,not just of me, but others on this forum (via your ‘special’ sockpuppets of course, dispensable pawns) is irritating, severely so, Iwill admit. But no different than the annoying pebble in one’s shoe. At the end of the day, it’s irrelevant. I know you would like to believe your ‘efforts’ on here to stir upstrife are center focus, but trust me, they aren’t.

    So why is it that somepeople need to clamor for such attention? Is it the result one’s parents, intellectually astute, academics perhaps, yet emotionally distant, themother particularly so? Lack of nurturing would assuredly result inthe stunted emotional development of a child, creating a desperate needfor attention, even if negative attention, for that would be better thannothing, would it not? I could go on, but why? It’s a very boring story.

    Yet regardless if one’s emotional development might have been stunted asa child, for whatever reason, in adulthood one has the opportunity tocast off those shackles and become their own person. Why allow one’spast to affect their present, much less their future???

    Bola prafrente amigo. Serio.

    @38_Nothing_Special: You forgot thepied-à-terre in BsAs, and the condo overlooking Camps Bay. LOL

    You need to improve yourreading comprehension skills amigo. I have never complained aboutmoney, on this forum, or in real life. Complainedabout taxes? Yes (and who doesn’t?). Complainedabout gov’t intrusion into my personal financial affairs? Yes. Complained about gov’t intrusion into my private communications? Yes. Complained about gov’t intrusion into the affairs of othersovereign nations? Yes. But complain about money? No. Gratefully, I have no reason to complain. I’m hardlyin the top 1%, but neither am I on the Bolsa Familia.

    But whydo you even care about my ‘complaints’, much less my activist stance? You suggest what, lay down and play dead? “Keep calm… carryon”, is that what you were taught? And when you’re instructednext to “Move on… nothing to see here”, will you do so whenthe scene is someone’s civil and human rights being violated and abused by those’in authority’? Will you say nothing? Silence equals consent. Do youblindlyobey authority? Not me. “Dissent is the highest form ofpatriotism”. I’m the descendant of revolutionaries, notconformists.

    Yet Itake from your comment about FATCA (of whichI am in full compliance, begrudgingly), you must have read the archives of GringoFloripa’s many posts on this forum. Seeing that you only just joined this forum three weeksago, it’s quite interesting you even know about GF. And while theabused dog post was indeed oneGringo.Serrano made, that too was before you became a forum member. Hmmm…?

    I guess I should feel honored youfind my posts, past and present, to be of such interest, and thatyou spend hours reviewing them. But life is rather boring there on ‘thecontinent’, isn’t it? I’ll say the same to youas I similarly said to Terrybly_2_Boring. Maybe if the left ear, andthe right ear hears the same thing, the message will sink in.

    Don’teverpresume you know the extent of my humanitarian efforts andcontributions.

    But back to money…. Let’s meet up for a cold one sometime bud. We can bothwhip out our IRPFs and compare. I’ll show you mine, if you show me yours…. Wink

    Have a great Ray-likeweek! Both of you.

    Bola pra frente….

    EDIT: amplification

    Gringo.Serrano2015-02-24 17:34:39

  • #273371

    ffm
    Member

    $2.90 was hit today. This seems to be the resistance that some chartists are saying need to be broken to seek $3.20.

    Yikes.
    And I am going to the US in April. CryNo shopping spree for you!
  • #273410

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=38 Special]Gringo.serrano stop complaining about money and give back to society. I challenge you to open a small shelter for abandoned street animals or not for profit computer center helping and showing poor kids how to use a computer. Have you given this any thought Mr. Miser?[/QUOTE]

    Querido 38_Nothing_Special, you are sooooo lateto the party!

    Just one, of many… rescued, and madewell (at significant expense).

    Now living happily with a family whosetwo children adore him! Priceless.

    Discarded like a piece of trash


    Now has a glimmer of hope in his eyes


    One man’s junk is another man’streasure


    Minha bola semprevai prafrente. E tua Nada_Especial??? Wink

  • #273412

    Anonymous

    Aw, I love these pics. He turned out so well.

  • #273414

    ffm
    Member

    Awesome story! Clap

  • #273425

    jeb2886
    Member

    I was looking quickly at the CDN dollar, and it’s slipped by about 30% because of oil, if the Real slipped that much, it would be about $3.10, so we could still see some slippage on the currency just from oil, and nothing else.

    Should be an interesting year for sure! Especially when inflation numbers come out and they are way higher this year due to gas/power prices jumping up by so much.
  • #273429

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    The Abott, sorry to hear the fx is going up for your trip in April. Marc comes to mind for “small change” help . In some cases you can even save enough for an iPad just because of better rate and no bank fees. I’m paying attention now as my bet is it will hit 3.0 in 3 weeks

  • #273430

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    GS, great story ! Hoping your gesture will inspire other people to do the same. Ok even if it’s one out of hundreds, you still made a difference!

  • #273500

    Serrano
    Participant

    Liquidity Pyramid
    (opens as a pdf file)

  • #273502

    ffm
    Member

    Very interesting!

    2.90 seems to be the sticky point. It dances around that mark and goes back. I think the analysts are right. When it breaks through, it’s gonna go for a climb.
  • #273573

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]]

    And manufacturing does NOT mean exporting. √Ǭ†Every port in the US could be shut down and it wouldn’t do much to manufacturing, the US consumes almost everything it manufactures. √Ǭ† It’s import and export account for about 10-13% of it’s total GDP. √Ǭ†
    There, plenty of actual data to rummage through, and not conspiracies.

    [/QUOTE] JKennedy, I never said manufacturing means exporting. Sounds like you are hang up on it. And no conspiracies here, just throwing questions out there for one to think about. Less reading and more watching the whole picture comes to mind.
    “>The US dollar is used as a methodall of the time.<o:p></o:p></span of payment in international trade. Any trading partner wishing to engage in international commerce will calculate the value of its goods or services in
    local currency and then, via variable exchange rate conversion, quote and invoice
    and be paid in US dollars.<o:p></o:p></span>” Fila, thanks for the quote. Maybe I should clarify that with the ports slowdown, many exporters couldn’t sell their goods which also meant less demand for the dollar. There is no second time around for seasonal goods or for those who lost business to competitors.

  • #273577

    celso
    Member

    Beautiful dog Gringo Serrano!
    Brasil had awful employment numbers down 83,000 in Jan. The slip is just starting. Goldman sees Real at 3.10 to 3.20 soon.
    I agree.
    Cheers, GBOF
    Dilma and her people should cut gas prices 40% tomorrow and let Petrobras sink.

  • #273580

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]

    …Goldman sees Real at 3.10 to 3.20 soon.
    [/QUOTE]

    Given that it was Goldman Sacks who deliberately fudged,via statistical gobbledygook, the Greek financial books on behalf of that governmentto ensure Greek entry into the European Community, one can be sure that GoldmanSacks will say or do anything for a fee or its own ulterior motives. Before screwingyou those slicked back sweet smelling filches will sidle up and purr, “Let meput it in a little bit and if you don’t like it I’ll take it out again.”

  • #273592

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Fila] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]

     

    …Goldman sees Real at 3.10 to 3.20 soon.
    [/QUOTE]
    <p =”Msonormal” style=”margin-bottom: 16.2pt; line-height: 17.05pt; -: initial; -attachment: initial; -size: initial; -origin: initial; -clip: initial; -: initial; -repeat: initial;”>Given that it was Goldman Sacks who deliberately fudged,
    via statistical gobbledygook, the Greek financial books on behalf of that government
    to ensure Greek entry into the European Community, one can be sure that Goldman
    Sacks will say or do anything for a fee or its own ulterior motives. Before screwing
    you those slicked back sweet smelling filches will sidle up and purr, “Let me
    put it in a little bit and if you don’t like it I’ll take it out again.” <o:p></o:p>

    [/QUOTE]
    Yes Golman is not innocent, yet that comment is over four months old, so now the moving target is at five point five. Brazilians still flood the USA and come back with huge suitcases of everything at one third the price or better than one finds in Brazil. Dilma insists on dictating an elevated price for gas and electricity that makes the county no competitive and just now announce higher taxes on an overtaxed industry in a slump. She is headed out fast, then perhaps some positive change might happen.

  • #273614

    jeb2886
    Member

    Dilma locked in gas prices below market rates for Brazil to ensure her infation targets were met, same with electricity. With the real slumping, and water issues for hydro, importing electricity and burning fossil fuels is going to become pretty expensive. Hydro is almost free, even considering having to build a huge dam.

    She has no control over the economy, it’s what people do in their daily lives that drives the economy. They can set the tone, and hope people catch onto it.
    If they reduce taxes on businesses, businesses aren’t going to magically become more efficient, produce more goods and find magic buyers out there. And those tax dollars aren’t going to be saved because that will mean laying off people… who are spending all those tax dollars on their products.
  • #273618

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Dilma locked in gas prices below market rates for Brazil to ensure her infation targets were met, same with electricity. With the real slumping, and water issues for hydro, importing electricity and burning fossil fuels is going to become pretty expensive. Hydro is almost free, even considering having to build a huge dam.

    She has no control over the economy, it’s what people do in their daily lives that drives the economy. They can set the tone, and hope people catch onto it.
    If they reduce taxes on businesses, businesses aren’t going to magically become more efficient, produce more goods and find magic buyers out there. And those tax dollars aren’t going to be saved because that will mean laying off people… who are spending all those tax dollars on their products.

    [/QUOTE]

    I realise that when you post something that youhave something to say or a contribution to make; it’s just that it’s usually difficultto decipher the encryption for the word salad.

    If she hasn’t control of the economy it impliesthat her Presidential powers do not extend to controlling business legislation,taxation or anything pertaining the guidance or management of the country’saffairs. Little point therefore in blaming the woman if all that she can do isset the tone; whatever that means.

  • #273621

    jeb2886
    Member

    @file, take a look at the US GDP and you’ll see why a governments actions do not change the outcome of the economy. You can claim all those things make huge differences, but take a look at the US and when they performed similar ations and who me the massive change in the economy. Should be a simple task, as you seem to think everything changes the economy and they’re in direct control.

  • #273624

    Anonymous

    JK If, as you say, government’s actions do notchange the outcome of an economy then why do we bitch about everything that isembraced by politics and politicians? The laws pertaining to commerce and taxationare determined by whom if not government? And do such laws influence thefinancial facets of business together with employment levels and in turn GDP?Government always influences the business environment and it is noteworthy toremember the recent crash and meltdown in the USA when only government couldput Humpty Dumpty back together again albeit at a cost that makes nonsense outof the true meaning of debt.

  • #273625

    jeb2886
    Member

    The government can do what I would call nuclear options against the economy. They could tax at 100% and not spend a dime of it.

    But the government doesn’t in general affect the economy. When helicopter ben got his name, people were laughing at him for saying what do you want us to do, throw money out of a helicopter? The thing is, the government couldn’t do much of anything, other than stabilize some sectors and banks. They injected cold cash into peoples hands and created debt with it. That was their big offering. Why? Because they don’t have much they can do here.
    What does a government do with all those tax dollars? It turns around and dumps them directly back into the economy. Reduce the taxes, reduce what they put back into the economy. Some companies will make more money, but the overall economy won’t. Because those tax dollars that were being injected back into the economy are gone now.
    This isn’t some magic setup, where you can yank one chain on the economy without it yanking all kinds of other chains at the same time. Not only would the government collect less taxes, it would need to lay off people because it wouldn’t have enough money to pay for them. Now a tax law change has upped unemployment and reduced spending…
  • #273645

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] @file, take a look at the US GDP and you’ll see why a governments actions do not change the outcome of the economy. √Ǭ† √Ǭ†You can claim all those things make huge differences, but take a look at the US and when they performed similar ations and who me the massive change in the economy. √Ǭ† Should be a simple task, as you seem to think everything changes the economy and they’re in direct control.

    [
    I have to say that in the case of the ports labor dispute, the government could have helped back in November when many exporters were getting ready to ship x-mas orders overseas and other contractual obligations. The entire West coast ports would be in a better shape, still a mess but at least some exports are finally shipping. Help came in just last month. The lack of prompt action will cost the GDP even if it’s by 1 percent.

  • #273654

    jeb2886
    Member

    It’s like having a 100,000, and being worried about a nickle. Whatever the government would have done in that case would have amounted to very little in economic changes. It doesn’t mean that wouldn’t have meant a lot for those people being directly affected, but it real dollar terms it adds up to nothing.

    Most of the US manufacturing is in the form of high end construction, manufacturing, automobiles, military, scientific, airplanes, etc. It’s not christmas presents.
  • #273659

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]

    But the government doesn’t in general affect the economy.

    [/QUOTE]

    Wow, just wow. Confused
    Whole giant industries are born from government decisions. Industries that go on the eclipse the government and “poke” the government into making decisions that affect the economy for better or worse.
    With all due respect, you usually post very insightful things about real estate and I have learned a few things from you, but that statement is utterly ridiculous.
  • #273664

    jeb2886
    Member

    Where do the workers come from for this new industry? Are they magically transported into the world?

    They come from other companies, who were paying them and who are now not paying them.
    If the country consists of me and you, and I make 5 ipads a year to sell to you, and you make 5 iphones to sell to me, we’re good. If I decide I’m going to work my ass off and make lots and lots of money — I’m going to make 10 ipads this year… WHO do I sell them to? You only have enough money to pay me for 5. Unless YOU work your ass off too, and make me 10 iphones, you won’t have the money.
    The economy is essentially a zero sum game. Unless YOU work harder, I can’t sell you something because you won’t have the money.
    Where this becomes less obvious is when there are lots of people to sell to and I DO sell my 10 ipads.. what happens then? 5 people don’t buy you iphones because they spent all their money with me. In the real world a company like Apple doesn’t magically “create wealth” it simply transfers it. If someone spends $900 on an iphone, it doesn’t mean we have $900 more in the economy, it means $900 won’t be spent somewhere else.
    The economy grows by 2 ways: Productivity increases (where you manufacture more) and population increases, because someone new who comes in, both consumes and produces.
    This is why the government can create as many industries as it wants — but it’s simply sucking the income earned from one industry and putting it into another.
    This is why I keep saying “GDP follows 2 rules in the US, productivity and population increase” It’s a perfect line, because the US has seen productivity increases of 2.3% every year for the last 70 years, and it controls it’s population via immigration.
    After all that: YES government can create jobs, but not people. Therefore, it’s simply moving employees from one company to another and creating no actual extra wealth. That is created via productivity and population.
    YES it could export all this extra crap, but if you look at imports/exports they generally add up to very little of the economy and they’re generally fairly even. The real exception to this rule is China, who is producing masses of crap and accepting IOU’s in return… which will likely be worth nothing when they go to cash them, because the currency exchange rates will change, making that $50 IOU a $5 IOU, while we got $50 of goods from them. They know this, but they don’t care, they want jobs and growth right now.
  • #273665

    ffm
    Member

    Here’s a podcast with a British astrophysicist explaining what a tiny investment of GDP into NASA did to create hundreds of billions of dollars in wealth over the past decades for the US.

    Last time I checked, NASA was a government agency and funded by public (read government) money.
    Although this podcast is great all the way through, the part I am talking about is near the end.
  • #273673

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] It’s like having a 100,000, and being worried about a nickle. √Ǭ† Whatever the government would have done in that case would have amounted to very little in economic changes. √Ǭ† It doesn’t mean that wouldn’t have meant a lot for those people being directly affected, but it real dollar terms it adds up to nothing.

    Most of the US manufacturing is in the form of high end construction, manufacturing, automobiles, military, scientific, airplanes, etc. √Ǭ†It’s not christmas presents.√Ǭ†

    [/QUOTE]
    A nickel and christmas presents, really? You discard small to medium businesses as if they don’t matter but let’s focus on conglomerates or entities, after all they are too big to fail. Most exports represent the livelihood of many companies affected and you mock them as Christmas presents.

  • #273674

    jeb2886
    Member

    See you’re stuck on the little things here. The government CAN change the outcome for some little guys, but it doesn’t change the whole economy at all. You need to read the rest of my message to understand how a government putting $100 into one companies pockets simply means $100 was taken from other peoples pockets. It’s a zero sum game.

  • #273690

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]See you’re stuck on the little things here. The government CAN change the outcome for some little guys, but it doesn’t change the whole economy at all. You need to read the rest of my message to understand how a government putting $100 into one companies pockets simply means $100 was taken from other peoples pockets. It’s a zero sum game.

    [/QUOTE]

    So when a government wages a war on a world scale like in the 40’s that does not affect the economy at all? ConfusedOk, this is getting a little nutty.
    For the love of Jesus back to the original topic: $2.96 right now according to Lord Google.
    Broke that $2.90. Sky’s the limit!
  • #273696

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=The Abbot][QUOTE=jkennedy]See you’re stuck on the little things here. The government CAN change the outcome for some little guys, but it doesn’t change the whole economy at all. You need to read the rest of my message to understand how a government putting $100 into one companies pockets simply means $100 was taken from other peoples pockets. It’s a zero sum game.

    [/QUOTE]

    So when a government wages a war on a world scale like in the 40’s that does not affect the economy at all? ConfusedOk, this is getting a little nutty.
    For the love of Jesus back to the original topic: $2.96 right now according to Lord Google.
    Broke that $2.90. Sky’s the limit!

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes,jkennedy’s and his Captain America’s alternative universe can be morefrustrating than an analysis of economics offered by a psychotic dyslectic.Rarely does one find this degree of self-contradiction in an individual outsideof a group of politicians. Meanwhile the exchange rate rages on in the dollar’scharge into the wild blue yonder; currently standing at 2.97 against the realas I type and likely to touch 3.00 before the day is out. The US government isborrowing the same money it is printing in the clear knowledge that it doesn’thave to pay it back thereby locking out private investors who are √¢‚ǨÀúforced’ tofind yield in the stock market. That same market is reaching record levels thatare completely unrelated to value and so is massively overpriced to almostbubble levels√¢‚Ǩ¬¶and what happens to bubbles? We live in interest times.

  • #273697

    jeb2886
    Member

    Why don’t you take a look at the GDP graphs and let us know how a war in the 40’s impacted the GDP? 🙂

    It’s all there.
    I agree with you, in theory the government should be able to do a lot of things, in practice the actions do little to nothing and basically steal from pete to give to paul. The numbers are simply too large.
    The exception to this was where the no doc loans in the 2000’s that ran up that huge bubble in real estate — it was worse than others, but others have been very bad too. But if you were to track that line on a normal trajectory, you would see the area above it’s normal gdp growth, was all backfilled in, in 2008 when the crash hit and back to normal around mid 2009. Basically all the magic wealth that was created was removed in the 2008/2009 GDP numbers and then back to normal!
    The thing is, the economy is SO large, even in Brazil, that actions taken only affect a few people, and then those people only see a very small increase. If you take an entire sector and double it’s income and manage to not take that money from anyone else, you’re still not going to make a visible dent on the GDP.
  • #273699

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Fila][QUOTE=The Abbot][QUOTE=jkennedy]See you’re stuck on the little things here. The government CAN change the outcome for some little guys, but it doesn’t change the whole economy at all. You need to read the rest of my message to understand how a government putting $100 into one companies pockets simply means $100 was taken from other peoples pockets. It’s a zero sum game.

    [/QUOTE]

    So when a government wages a war on a world scale like in the 40’s that does not affect the economy at all? ConfusedOk, this is getting a little nutty.
    For the love of Jesus back to the original topic: $2.96 right now according to Lord Google.
    Broke that $2.90. Sky’s the limit!

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes,jkennedy’s and his Captain America’s alternative universe can be morefrustrating than an analysis of economics offered by a psychotic dyslectic.Rarely does one find this degree of self-contradiction in an individual outsideof a group of politicians. Meanwhile the exchange rate rages on in the dollar’scharge into the wild blue yonder; currently standing at 2.97 against the realas I type and likely to touch 3.00 before the day is out. The US government isborrowing the same money it is printing in the clear knowledge that it doesn’thave to pay it back thereby locking out private investors who are √¢‚ǨÀúforced’ tofind yield in the stock market. That same market is reaching record levels thatare completely unrelated to value and so is massively overpriced to almostbubble levels√¢‚Ǩ¬¶and what happens to bubbles?We live in interest times.

    [/QUOTE]

    I concur with this but at the same time, in the last 10,000+ of civilization, everybody has thought this….and was right!
  • #273700

    celso
    Member

    USA Is on a roll. No longer exporting dollars to buy oil. Agriculture and petro chem benefit from cheap oil For years to come and Brazil is falling hard….
    USD 2.97 right now! Cool!
    3.20 around corner.GreatBallsoFire2015-03-04 09:28:57

  • #273726

    Anonymous

    Well, the real kissed anexchange rate of 3.00 today before slipping back to 2.97. We can thereforeassume that the foreplay is over and that the serious screwing is ready to commence.

  • #273731

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    [QUOTE=Fila] <span style=”line-height: 17.05pt; font-size: 12px;”>Well, the real kissed an
    exchange rate of 3.00 today before slipping back to 2.97. We can therefore
    assume that the foreplay is over and that the serious screwing is ready to commence.</span><p =”Msonormal” style=”margin-bottom: 16.2pt; line-height: 17.05pt; -: initial; -attachment: initial; -size: initial; -origin: initial; -clip: initial; -: initial; -repeat: initial;”><span style=”-: initial; -attachment: initial; -size: initial; -origin: initial; -clip: initial; -: initial; -repeat: initial;”><o:p></o:p></span>[/QUOTE]
    Just a tought – how about currency war? Brazil might want the real to stay around 3.00 or more to push exports and better their unemployment rate. It went from 2.80 something to 3.00 in a week (?) wow

  • #273735

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Fila]Well, the real kissed anexchange rate of 3.00 today[/QUOTE]
    Getcha motor runnin’!!!

  • #273746

    Anonymous

    A lot of talk about the Real/Dollar exchange rate.What are the predictions for the Euro/Real exchange rate?

  • #273752

    Anonymous

    TheBrazilian Real is slipping down a pole that is being continually greased by notonly a slowdown in global demand for its products but principally by the notorietyand hopeless incompetence within Brazilian politics and its corrupt dealings exampledby the Petrobras scandal. Since last December to date the Real has lost anincredible 14% against the Dollar but only 3% against the Euro. In the sameperiod the Euro has lost 12% against the Dollar. [figures are approximate].

    TheEuro is a contrived currency that is teetering on the edge of threatened extinctionin its present form. Political and social unrest is highlighted by the recentEuropean elections together with the current and seemingly continual crisis in Greece.All this hangs like the sword of Damocles that is likely to fall in four months’time when the new Greek government finally lays its cards on the tableconcerning its debt repayment proposals. The European community doesn’t speakwith one voice but rather like the cacophony of seals in Sea World when beggingfor fish; me, me, me. I’d buy European stocks but I wouldn’t hold Euro cash. TheEuropean dream has its similarities with the committee that produced the camelwhen all it wanted to do was design a horse.

  • #273759

    Anonymous

    My cash is in danish currency – still the danish Krone is tied to Euro.There are experts saying the danish Krone will be released from the Euro like the Swiss Franc was earlier this year,and we could see a massive upswing.

  • #273840

    Anonymous
    $1 = R3.06
    About time…my next trip to Brazil will be sweet! kkkkkTongue

    newyork372015-03-06 18:09:33

  • #273843

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=newyork37]

    $1 = R3.06
    About time…my next trip to Brazil will be sweet! kkkkkTongue

    [/QUOTE]

    And I am willing to bet, if you hold out for a little longer, that trip is only going to get sweeter! There is no top in sight to this climb.
  • #273857

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    Nooooooooo!!!

    -Marc
  • #273860

    Anonymous

    I told my ex namorada if brazilians re-elect Dilma that the real would decline in value. she said gringoes don’t understand brazil. We may not understand brazil, but we understand finance better newyork372015-03-07 08:48:35

  • #273896

    ejboyd
    Member

    R$3.10 today?

    Do you think it’ll hit 4 by the end of the year? 🙂
  • #273897

    jeb2886
    Member

    It’s sinking mostly because of oil prices. We’ll see other factors at play later on probably.

  • #273898

    Anonymous

    R4,00 by 2016

  • #273900

    agri2001
    Participant

    Its sinking mostly because of the total incompetence of the thieving sum of a beeches in Brazilia.

    BTW oil prices are projected to hit $40 a barrel, that should really help grease the skids.
    Bwaaaaaaa..!
  • #273901

    Anonymous

    Cushing, OK is running out of storage capacity for oil.

  • #273902

    jeb2886
    Member

    Guess the same can be said for other countries and their sinking dollars? Canada is down a fair amount and trending with Brazil right now. Loss in Petro dollars will force any countries currency down.

  • #273904

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=newyork37]R4,00 by 2016[/QUOTE]

    I hate to say it but it might be much sooner then 2016. The Real is still falling in value at a quick rate. For those of us working and getting paid in Reais, this is a huge cut in pay; one that makes me re-evaluate my situation.
    -Marc
  • #273917

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Hang in there in Marc. This might be just temporary, who really knows for sure? just shocked that it jumped to 3.10 just like that. I still would exchange just enough for monthly expenses, if I had the need. At 4.00 I would eat cup o’noodle every day to save up for a piece of land somewhere in the NE!

  • #273918

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=FanC]Hang in there in Marc. This might be just temporary, who really knows for sure? just shocked that it jumped to 3.10 just like that. I still would exchange just enough for monthly expenses, if I had the need. At 4.00 I would eat cup o’noodle every day to save up for a piece of land somewhere in the NE! [/QUOTE]

    Haha, yes at 4.00, cup √ɬ≥ noodle would be the equilivant of going out on the town! “Look honey, something other than rice and beans for a change!”Cry
    Not planning to leave anytime soon, but I am constantly evaluating my situation as anyone would. The exchange rate, though always on my radar before, is now checked daily.
    The aspect of this being temporary is probably correct based on the previous 10 year history of exchange rates. Though what worries me is that after these ups and downs, a new and higher corrected currency exchange rate will be established as the “new normal”. I don’t believe it will go back to 1.66, rather it might stay well over 3.00 once the rollercoaster is over. By the way, I don’t think we are anywhere near the top as of yet so I’ll be posting “Noooooo…..” for atleast a few more months!
    Thanks for the kind words!
    -Marc
  • #273923

    Anonymous

    Predictionis difficult if not impossible in this brave new world where central banks prodtheir grubby little self-interested fingers into the market place. Flooding theworld with cheap money has corrupted the otherwise rational behaviour of sanemen into the short-termism of suck it and see. Since the meltdown of 2008 moneyhas been handled by a bunch of clowns juggling with hot potatoes that mustn’tbe allowed to fall; each clown bumping into another as they counter each other’smoves. Governments photocopying money in the pretence of repaying its own debtand hoping against hope for inflation while deflation is getting a footholdwhile Investors inflate teetering stock markets way beyond values in search ofyields that are turning towards the negative. The world has turned into a dysfunctionalcasino without a house percentage. My prediction, or should I call it a stab inthe dark, is that we are in for a correction of some magnitude; the law ofunintended consequence is about to drop its gavel.

  • #273925

    doctorlili
    Member

    Yes, I am waiting for that correction for over a year already. And so far it has failed to come. I have the sense that the government uses some market manipulation right now to defer the meltdown. But OK, that way more people have some time then to get more stocks sold and moved into metals and RE,

  • #273930

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=mmaser][QUOTE=newyork37]R4,00 by 2016[/QUOTE]

    I hate to say it but it might be much sooner then 2016. The Real is still falling in value at a quick rate. For those of us working and getting paid in Reais, this is a huge cut in pay; one that makes me re-evaluate my situation.
    -Marc

    [/QUOTE]

    Currency trends are extremely volatile. Don’t be surprised to see some consolidation at the 2.9-3.0 level and even go to 2.8. At 3.0 currency traders will see it as a psychological point. However, that’s just the set up for a sharp decline to 3.5 or more.
  • #273931

    Anonymous

    It’s 3.12 today

  • #273932

    ejboyd
    Member
  • #273933

    jeb2886
    Member

    The problem is oil was creating a decent trade balance for Brazils imports, with it gone, that balance is out of wack. There are a lot of companies with debt/ties elsewhere that have no choice but to accept whatever they can get. And then there is the government who is also reducing it’s presence in currency swaps. This isn’t volatile from uncertainty, it’s dropping because of fundamentals. We haven’t even factored in uncertainty, which will probably come by the end of the year in terms of inflation, growth, tax increases, and budget cuts.

  • #273934

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] The problem is oil was creating a decent trade balance for Brazils imports, with it gone, that balance is out of wack. √Ǭ†There are a lot of companies with debt/ties elsewhere that have no choice but to accept whatever they can get. √Ǭ† And then there is the government who is also reducing it’s presence in currency swaps. √Ǭ†This isn’t volatile from uncertainty, it’s dropping because of fundamentals. √Ǭ† We haven’t even factored in uncertainty, which will probably come by the end of the year in terms of inflation, growth, tax increases, and budget cuts.[/QUOTE]
    Are you saying it could be R$4.5=$1 by the time the dust settles???

  • #273941

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=newyork37] [QUOTE=jkennedy] The problem is oil was creating a decent trade balance for Brazils imports, with it gone, that balance is out of wack. There are a lot of companies with debt/ties elsewhere that have no choice but to accept whatever they can get. And then there is the government who is also reducing it’s presence in currency swaps. This isn’t volatile from uncertainty, it’s dropping because of fundamentals. We haven’t even factored in uncertainty, which will probably come by the end of the year in terms of inflation, growth, tax increases, and budget cuts.[/QUOTE]
    Are you saying it could be R$4.5=$1 by the time the dust settles???[/QUOTE]

    At this point I think it is anyone’s guess. Fila illustrates this well.
    Considering a feces load of BR gov. debt is in dollars, would it not behoove them to control (read:try) this even a little? I know it’s good for exports but the debt just increased by a third in a few months simply with an increase in the dollar.
  • #273946

    jeb2886
    Member

    There are a lot of ying and yang events that are taking place though. The government paid out 36B to stabilize the currency last year. This year the US is on fire and oil is down, almost all of this movement is from external factors, and fighting them would be extremely expensive.

    While it makes sense to keep the Real strong for debt payments, how much are they paying to keep the currency strong versus saving this year?
    Lots of investors see the writing on the wall and also see how well the US is doing compared to Brazil. It would make sense to pull out of Brazil and move to the US, the currency was stronger, the government would also be fighting that tide, trying to keep the currency down.
    What is probably going to be a problem is companies in Brazil borrow money from abroad but now it’s going to be risky and/or impossible with the currency constantly getting weaker, which means they will need money from the local markets. The government has ben lending to them at 5.5% interest, but borrowing at 15%. That works when you only have to do it on a small scale and when the payback (companies/economy growing) is working in your favour, but now more companies are going to rely on those lower interest rates to stay afloat or weather rough times in the economy. That is going to force the government to seek out even more loans.
    They’re stuck in a hard place with this currency, especially now — any kind of pull back will probably be met with lots of selling and/or importing to restock shelves at discounts.
  • #273950

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]

    While it makes sense to keep the Real strong for debt payments, how much are they paying to keep the currency strong versus saving this year?

    [/QUOTE]

    Hmmmmm very true. That makes a lot of sense.
    Since the only dumb question is the question that goes unasked, is there anything besides buy up derivatives a government can do to hold its currency’s value? I don’t mean things like stop acting like a third world nation to instill confidence. I mean more immediate things.
  • #273955

    Finrudd
    Participant

    Marc – like you, I am paid in BRL. While the current exchange rate does make my salary look less, it is only when compared to when my salary looked expensive in the past few years. Also, as I spend my salary in Brazil, as I guess you do, rather than send it overseas, it doesn’t make too much difference? On the positive side, we potentially now look ‘cheap’ to our paymasters and can command a nice hardship increase to combat starvation! 🙂
    Joking apart I am looking at investments in the UK that deliver a nice safe return. There are plenty of good shares that deliver 4% – 6% in dividends in the UK, and with the GBP fast reaching it’s 10 year best against the BRL, it could well pay off for anyone with income overseas.

  • #273962

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=finrudd]Marc – like you, I am paid in BRL. While the current exchange rate does make my salary look less, it is only when compared to when my salary looked expensive in the past few years. Also, as I spend my salary in Brazil, as I guess you do, rather than send it overseas, it doesn’t make too much difference? On the positive side, we potentially now look ‘cheap’ to our paymasters and can command a nice hardship increase to combat starvation! 🙂 [/QUOTE]

    True, for purchases here there really isn’t a huge day to day difference. Prices are going up but it’s not like I am living in the US being paid Reais. We do live simply, enjoy cooking and can take advantage of the great veggies and meat this country has to offer. Although I have been noticing the overall quality of produce has fallen in the past month, regardless if it is a proper store or open air market.
    I am a partner in my company (AKA “paymaster”) and as such am paid post taxes profits in the form of dividends…the worse the currency exchange the less in self-employment taxes I’ll need to pay at the end of the year…so it’s not all bad news. Just once my wife goes to the US this year it will cost significantly more.
    I’ve read everyones response to this and do admit I have no crystal ball and really have no idea what will happen. That being said, I like to and need to prepare for the worst. I hope it rebalances but based on the continual bad economic news from Brazil, this place might be in for one hell of a storm!
    Still holding at 3.10!
    -Marc
  • #273963

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    So I just tracked the USDBRL with the USDCOP (colombian peso) and USDEUR (euro) on Bloomberg and they both show the same trend. Being these currencies are very different, could the fast depreciation in Real value against the dollar be more the US dollar increasing in value than bad Brazilian economic policies/corruption? Or does this mean anything at all?

    Thanks,
    Marc
  • #273965

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    That is true, the dollar is kicking butt against pretty much all currencies of late.

  • #273972

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=mmaser][QUOTE=finrudd]Marc – like you, I am paid in BRL. While the current exchange rate does make my salary look less, it is only when compared to when my salary looked expensive in the past few years. Also, as I spend my salary in Brazil, as I guess you do, rather than send it overseas, it doesn’t make too much difference? On the positive side, we potentially now look ‘cheap’ to our paymasters and can command a nice hardship increase to combat starvation! 🙂 [/QUOTE]

    True, for purchases here there really isn’t a huge day to day difference. Prices are going up but it’s not like I am living in the US being paid Reais. We do live simply, enjoy cooking and can take advantage of the great veggies and meat this country has to offer. Although I have been noticing the overall quality of produce has fallen in the past month, regardless if it is a proper store or open air market.
    I am a partner in my company (AKA “paymaster”) and as such am paid post taxes profits in the form of dividends…the worse the currency exchange the less in self-employment taxes I’ll need to pay at the end of the year…so it’s not all bad news. Just once my wife goes to the US this year it will cost significantly more.
    I’ve read everyones response to this and do admit I have no crystal ball and really have no idea what will happen. That being said, I like to and need to prepare for the worst. I hope it rebalances but based on the continual bad economic news from Brazil, this place might be in for one hell of a storm!
    Still holding at 3.10!
    -Marc

    [/QUOTE]

    I’ve noticed this, as well. I’ve heard it has to do with lack of rain. It makes sense. Let’s see if it improves as it’s been raining buckets as of late.
  • #273976

    Anonymous

    raining buckets is the other excuse, when drought doesn’t fit! (both seem to be valid excuses in different parts of the country. either way, it is tomato season and they are pricey.)

  • #273979

    agri2001
    Participant

    3C try potatoes. In my neck of the woods they are going for 4.50 to 6 reas a kg.

  • #273982

    Anonymous

    ah, here too. sweet potatoes are super cheap though, so we are using them instead, when we can be bothered to. Actually, work is bombando again and I have no time to bother with cooking so it is only peripheral at this point….

  • #273983

    Finrudd
    Participant

    I was commenting today about a por kilo I eat lunch in with my wife, that the price increased this year and the quality of notable ingredients dropped (both fish and chicken seem to be lower quality). Now this could be co-incidence, but this feels like the real-world impact of inflation.
    I also received an email from a supplier today advising of an increase in prices for repair on Radio Antennas. Now, I had this down as a service, so it struck me as odd, but I gather there may be imported chips being replaced in fairness to them.

  • #273984

    Finrudd
    Participant

    …and just to add: I was aiming on buying a food processor on my next visit to the UK, but with the GBP/BRL price as it is now, buying the same product in Brazil, with NFe and warranty (3 hours, or whatever the standard is here) suddenly seems more attractive. Now, I could glass-half-empty the situation and consider it that the product is now unaffordable in both UK and Brazil, or as I chose to do, re-assessed the value to me, and decided it was now worth purchasing in Brazil. I suppose that is kind of a screwed logic, but I felt less resentment paying the price in Brazil with the exchange rate as it is. This will apply to quite a but of stock here in Brazil that has not had the price adjusted yet.

  • #273985

    jeb2886
    Member

    [QUOTE=mmaser]So I just tracked the USDBRL with the USDCOP (colombian peso) and USDEUR (euro) on Bloomberg and they both show the same trend. Being these currencies are very different, could the fast depreciation in Real value against the dollar be more the US dollar increasing in value than bad Brazilian economic policies/corruption? Or does this mean anything at all?

    Thanks,
    Marc

    [/QUOTE]

    This is what I have been saying, oil and a very strong dollar are doing the damage — unless the US starts taking, oil runs quickly back to $100+, or Brazil pulls a miracle, the usdbrl won’t recover from here. this is all external factors.
    The government was doing it’s best to hold the currency back because of debt obligations and currency reassurance programs. Now the question is, how will this impact businesses, the governments ability to borrow money, and capital flows in and out of the country, and inflation. There are products that must be imported, such as wheat. Those items will be hit hard with inflation, which could make the currency even weaker and start a real big problem.
    THEN we need to factor in bad economic news for here. Recession is approaching, spending/austerity cuts, tax increases. I don’t think those have really been taken into acount at all yet.
  • #273987

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=finrudd]…and just to add: I was aiming on buying a food processor on my next visit to the UK, but with the GBP/BRL price as it is now, buying the same product in Brazil, with NFe and warranty (3 hours, or whatever the standard is here) suddenly seems more attractive. Now, I could glass-half-empty the situation and consider it that the product is now unaffordable in both UK and Brazil, or as I chose to do, re-assessed the value to me, and decided it was now worth purchasing in Brazil. I suppose that is kind of a screwed logic,but I felt less resentment paying the price in Brazil with the exchange rate as it is. This will apply to quite a but of stock here in Brazil that has not had the price adjusted yet.[/QUOTE]

    LOLI think this way too! I was going to go on a shopping spree in April. I have business to attend in the US. Very few things are attractive now!
    Time to start exporting.

  • #273988

    jeb2886
    Member

    And this is how we know roughly where the Real should be…. You shouldn’t be able to go to another country and buy up super cheap stuff. There might be a discount (US is huge and operates on low margins) so going from Canada to the US you would often see a 20% discount. Enough to make it worth while if you’re there, but not enough to make you spend a few days driving down there, getting a hotel and then shopping for every product you buy for your house.

  • #273989

    celso
    Member

    Not just oil. Brazil was getting $130 dollars a ton for iron ore in the boom and exporting millions of tons per month. Now they get $40 a ton. So the flood of money is over.

  • #273990

    Anonymous

    Weshould not allow ourselves to become transfixed by the rise of the dollar. Infact one is comically reminded of the greedy little girl in Willy Wonka’schocolate factory who inflated herself into a blueberry. Pundits may theoriseabout this astronomical rise of the dollar against all major currencies yetlogicality is absent. Lacking intrinsic value, the dollar is an accidently heroof the phenomenal rise in the creation of credit.

    Imaginea concept to replace capitalism and let’s call it √¢‚ǨÀúcreditism’ while rememberingand understanding that we have a money system that is only forty years-old. Worryingly, few if any economists understandit or can truly visualise, least comprehend the global tsunami of the trillionsthat pulse through the credit system; a system that has stark similarities withthe Willy Wonka factory and the Umpa Lumpas [central banks] that think they arein control.

    Thedollar has scored an own goal and there are signs of weakness in this bubble. Thestock-market is already seeing the smart money slide gently and discretely towardsthe exit door. If you have dollars, spend ‘em with Johnny foreigner while thegoing is good.

  • #273991

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Willy Wonka factory made big time money, had cheap (maybe free) labor and dominated the market. Nothing wrong with Wonka’s factory.

  • #273992

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Fila]Weshould not allow ourselves to become transfixed by the rise of the dollar. Infact one is comically reminded of the greedy little girl in Willy Wonka’schocolate factory who inflated herself into a blueberry. Pundits may theoriseabout this astronomical rise of the dollar against all major currencies yetlogicality is absent. Lacking intrinsic value, the dollar is an accidently heroof the phenomenal rise in the creation of credit.

    Imaginea concept to replace capitalism and let’s call it √¢‚ǨÀúcreditism’ while rememberingand understanding that we have a money system that is only forty years-old. Worryingly, few if any economists understandit or can truly visualise, least comprehend the global tsunami of the trillionsthat pulse through the credit system; a system that has stark similarities withthe Willy Wonka factory and the Umpa Lumpas [central banks] that think they arein control.

    Thedollar has scored an own goal and there are signs of weakness in this bubble. Thestock-market is already seeing the smart money slide gently and discretely towardsthe exit door. If you have dollars, spend ‘em with Johnny foreigner while thegoing is good.

    [/QUOTE]

    Oh..! Great One.
    And what toilet tissue would one hold on to.
    Pounds/Swiss Franc etc, etc?
    Just looking for some ideas, being that the € is slowly going down the toilet

    agri20012015-03-11 17:23:21

  • #273994

    Anonymous

    Interestingquestion and one that is being asked by every currency trader; a pox on the lotof ‘em!

    Asgringos, some of us have put ourselves in the chosen situation where we aresubject to exchange rate risk. If we have assets/investments/income originatingin other countries, this can be a swings & roundabout mixed benefit; theproverbial egg-basket scenario. We can enjoy the good times or roll with thepunches during bad times. Anyone who tells you different is either a smugbastard who, like the sailor enjoying a following wind, is thinking that theweather was of his own making rather than pure chance.

    Asto the √¢‚Äö¬¨uro we know that the clueless buggers running that fiasco haven’t got aplan; they stumble from crisis to crisis, adding to which the Greeks, who arenow the star attraction in this freak show will determine the fate of thecurrency for better or worse during the coming months. Hold tight, it’s gonnabe a bumpy ride.

  • #273997

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=agri2001]

    And what toilet tissue would one hold on to.
    Pounds/Swiss Franc etc, etc?
    Just looking for some ideas, being that the € is slowly going down the toilet[/QUOTE]
    A billboard, as one exits BKK (Bangkok) airport….
  • #274001

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=andrewfroboy]Willy Wonka factory made big time money, had cheap (maybe free) labor and dominated the market. Nothing wrong with Wonka’s factory.[/QUOTE]

    I believe they were paid in chocolate! Yes, very cheap labor and possibly no income taxes! Imagine RF receiving tons of sun melted Wonka Chocolate!
    -Marc
  • #274002

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano][QUOTE=agri2001]

    And what toilet tissue would one hold on to.
    Pounds/Swiss Franc etc, etc?
    Just looking for some ideas, being that the € is slowly going down the toilet[/QUOTE]
    A billboard, as one exits BKK (Bangkok) airport….

    [/QUOTE]

    Food for thought:
  • #274011

    jeb2886
    Member

    The problem is, a reserve country needs to run at a debt, so others can hold their currency.

    Money = IOU from China (or country)
    It literally means, I owe YOU. For someone to be holding onto even one Renminbi, it means someone had to sell China something, somewhere and create a debt that China says IOU.
    Money is a zero sum game, even when it’s printed it has someone spending it, and someone holding the debt. For every dollar in someone savings account, it means someone else owes a dollar. There is no way to have everyone have $10,000 in their account because that means everyone owes $10,000 as well. For someone to have savings, it means someone else owes money.
  • #274019

    ffm
    Member

    Shouldn’t it be IOY? ConfusedLOL

  • #274033

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]The problem is, a reserve country needs to run at a debt, so others can hold their currency.

    Money = IOU from China (or country)
    It literally means, I owe YOU. For someone to be holding onto even one Renminbi, it means someone had to sell China something, somewhere and create a debt that China says IOU.
    Money is a zero sum game, even when it’s printed it has someone spending it, and someone holding the debt. For every dollar in someone savings account, it means someone else owes a dollar. There is no way to have everyone have $10,000 in their account because that means everyone owes $10,000 as well. For someone to have savings, it means someone else owes money.

    [/QUOTE]

    AgainI’ll pop my head down the rabbit-hole if for no other reason than to hear theecho. Pardon my monetary skills if I need clarification on your currency/debt zerosum equivalence: If I have 10 dollars and with them buy a bunch of bananas fromTrinidad for 10 dollars you say this creates a 10 dollar debt? So, having spentmy 10 dollars, I not only have a lovely bunch of bananas but I now have a debtof 10 dollars? And if not my 10 dollar debt whose dollar debt is it because I don’twant to share my bananas nor do I want to repay the debt otherwise it woulddouble the cost and although I like bananas I don’t like 20 dollar bananas thatmuch. And even if we extrapolate this to involve the trading balance betweenthe US and Trinidad Tobago does this mean that Trinidad Tobago, now holdingwhat used to be my 10 dollars in payment for my now half eaten and rapidly ripeningbananas, that the US owes the 10 dollars despite those dollars being already inthe hands of Trinidad Tobago; or is it visa versa? Incidentally, apart from thepotassium and regular bowel movements bananas induce, they’re high in the antioxidantsthat combat oxidants in a zero sum game.

  • #274035

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]Shouldn’t it be IOY? ConfusedLOL[/QUOTE]

    He lost me after the IOU or IOY part.
    But maybe its the pinga kicking in LOL
  • #274040

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Money was an IOU when it was pegged to the gold standard. Now money is only worth something because I trust that the government that issued it will accept that currency to pay taxes and thus people put faith in it to make other transactions.

  • #274044

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=andrewfroboy]Money was an IOU when it was pegged to the gold standard. Now money is only worth something because I trust that the government that issued it will accept that currency to pay taxes and thus people put faith in it to make other transactions. [/QUOTE]

    Thisis a perfect definition of FIAT currency.

    Incidentally, if anyone is curiousabout what FIAT actually means it may disappoint to learn that it’s not a sophisticatedanagrammatic amalgamation of superior thoughts from the noble minds ofeconomists that were having a particularly good day. No, it’s simply the Latinword meaning, “It shall be.” Ironical, isn’t it, that it would be a Latin word.

  • #274070

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Fila][QUOTE=andrewfroboy]Money was an IOU when it was pegged to the gold standard. Now money is only worth something because I trust that the government that issued it will accept that currency to pay taxes and thus people put faith in it to make other transactions. [/QUOTE]

    Thisis a perfect definition of FIAT currency.

    Incidentally,if anyone is curiousabout what FIAT actually meansit may disappoint to learn that it’s not a sophisticatedanagrammatic amalgamation of superior thoughts from the noble minds ofeconomists that were having a particularly good day. No, it’s simply the Latinword meaning, “It shall be.” Ironical, isn’t it, that it would be a Latin word.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not to mention a sh*te Italian car that our semi-retarded hosts drool over. LOL
  • #274071

    ffm
    Member

    Oh, by the way $3.22 but in practice the going rate is around $3.32-3.35 in the interior of SP.

    Nossa!
  • #274087

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]Oh, by the way $3.22 but in practice the going rate is around $3.32-3.35 in the interior of SP.

    Nossa!

    [/QUOTE]
    And after the protests on Sunday, with proper coverage by the foreign press, Monday might bring 3.50! Shocked
    Gringo.Serrano2015-03-13 12:07:58

  • #274096

    Steven
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano][QUOTE=The Abbot]Oh, by the way $3.22 but in practice the going rate is around $3.32-3.35 in the interior of SP.

    Nossa!

    [/QUOTE]
    And after the protests on Sunday, with proper coverage by the foreign press, Monday might bring 3.50! Shocked
    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, indeed. I was thinking that Monday might be a very good day to move some money to Brazil from my newly worthy supply of USD.
  • #274110

    Anonymous
  • #274116

    agri2001
    Participant

    And if the BC does as it says you can expect 4-1 a lot sooner then expected.

  • #274119

    Anonymous

    3.25 = $1
    Wow…the devaluation is accelerating.

  • #274123

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=newyork37]3.25 = $1
    Wow…the devaluation is accelerating. [/QUOTE]

    Yes,it reminds me of that infamous football match between Brazil and Germany; anunbelievable onslaught. Its mind numbing acceleration is such that a 7 to 1exchange rate couldn’t make us blink any faster or our jaws drop any lower.Abandon all hope ye who enter here!

  • #274124

    Anonymous

    how has the devaluation affected goods and services?

  • #274127

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Agri reminded me to check Reuters and I got these two current updates –
    it should be better on the long term and create jobs:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/13/brazil-itau-unibanco-real-idUSE6N0T000620150313
    It’s just a global trend, for now:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/13/brazil-economy-fx-idUSL1N0WF1NQ20150313
    3.99 sweet onions from Peru about 10 days ago and they are now 7.99 Costco prices. Imports are getting expensive here too but the type people most consume like food including olive oil.

  • #274128

    jeb2886
    Member

    Of course, the currency swaps were to hold back inflation as well, no wonder she was always hitting that 6%, while everyone bitched it was no where near 6%. It was, but the other items had jumped far more than normal in price, while things like imports, gas and electricity all remained unchanged, offsetting those big jumps.

    That reminds me, I need to get some good olive oil before that stuff jumps way up in price…
  • #274130

    Finrudd
    Participant

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]

    That reminds me, I need to get some good olive oil before that stuff jumps way up in price…
    [/QUOTE]
    Good point – the non-savvy vendor with stock in country from 3 to 6 months ago may not yet have adjusted their pricing. However, you can be sure that when the centavo drops and they realise just how much more expensive the next shipment is, we can expect prices to really sky-rocket.
  • #274267

    Serrano
    Participant

    In case anyone missed this announcement earlier this week: Gap widens between US and allies on new China-led lending body, with Britain among other countries already taking part in AIIB, and Australia considering it.
    Spend/convert those USDs Yankee Gringos, while it’s hot!

  • #274269

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]
    In case anyone missed this announcement earlier this week: Gap widens between US and allies on new China-led lending body, with Britain among other countries already taking part in AIIB, and Australia considering it.
    Spend/convert those USDs Yankee Gringos, while it’s hot!
    [/QUOTE]

    Into what currency? Everything seems to be in flux!
    -Marc
  • #274271

    jeb2886
    Member

    Hurry and do it fast, people are really confused right now and haven’t read this news! Euro is down 1.5% and Real 1.8%, they must not have heard this news! Fast!

  • #274272

    celso
    Member

    China finance bank? Great! They become a stronger colonial power in the third world. Then they can see the projects rot when a Hugo Chaves, Cristina,nLula Dilma comes to power.

  • #274275

    Serrano
    Participant

    I think it would be a foolish and huge mistake to dismiss the potential and power of a country with over ONE BILLION inhabitants.
    @Marc, everyone has their own ‘agenda’. Mine is to spend what I can on infrastructure and productive real estate in Brasil. So for now, I’m turning in my Franklins (freshly printed by the Fed), for Reais. But with the USD high, that means a ‘buy’ for the currencies that are now low. If one doesn’t have access to RMB, then the HKD might be worth a look. Although presently tied to the USD, should (if/when) things begin to slide for Tio’s fiat currency (no one can stay king of the hill forever), an uncoupling of the HKD could see an immediate 10-20% increase in value.
    The only bummer with this ‘casino’, is that there aren’t any cocktail waitresses coming around with drinks…. LOL
    Gringo.Serrano2015-03-20 09:34:02

  • #274278

    Anonymous

    Why, I askmyself, as I wander lonely as a cloud through the mysteries of life, theuniverse and the minds of women, has the bloody dollar soared to such dizzyheights during these particular phases of the Moon? Money is pouring into thedollar and the dollar’s value is responding to this stimulus in similar vein tothose naughty magazines in the sperm bank’s deposit rooms. The dollar musttherefore be perceived as a safe haven by those who, like the Russian rich, aretrying to preserve their riches already under attack by the increasing economicsanctions including the sabotage of the price of oil. And those concerned richcitizens in euroland who are also watching the European currency debaclefalling apart at the seams; all of which activity is a self-fulfilling prophecy;all trying to get out of dubious currencies and into the quagmire of thebankrupt dollar √¢‚Ǩ‚Äú Jesus wept!

    And all this ishappening while poor old America is suffering an astronomical increase in theprice of its exports, much diminished profits from its outsourced offshore industriesnot to mention the big hit on its tourist industry. Adding to which we have thecurrency speculators tossing a four-trillion dollar daily coin in the hope ofpicking up a point or two preceded by a few zeros after the decimal point. It’sa mad, mad world of geopolitical connivance made crazy by central banks in theirFrankensteinian manipulations. Alcohol. Alcohol, friendships and cuddles areone of several answers to these unanswerable questions. Call me when it’s allover.

  • #274286

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Fila]Why, I askmyself, as I wander lonely as a cloud through the mysteries of life, theuniverse and the minds of women, has the bloody dollar soared to such dizzyheights during these particular phases of the Moon? Money is pouring into thedollar and the dollar’s value is responding to this stimulus in similar vein tothose naughty magazines in the sperm bank’s deposit rooms. The dollar musttherefore be perceived as a safe haven by those who, like the Russian rich, aretrying to preserve their riches already under attack by the increasing economicsanctions including the sabotage of the price of oil. And those concerned richcitizens in euroland who are also watching the European currency debaclefalling apart at the seams; all of which activity is a self-fulfilling prophecy;all trying to get out of dubious currencies and into the quagmire of thebankrupt dollar √¢‚Ǩ‚Äú Jesus wept!

    And all this ishappening while poor old America is suffering an astronomical increase in theprice of its exports, much diminished profits from its outsourced offshore industriesnot to mention the big hit on its tourist industry. Adding to which we have thecurrency speculators tossing a four-trillion dollar daily coin in the hope ofpicking up a point or two preceded by a few zeros after the decimal point. It’sa mad, mad world of geopolitical connivance made crazy by central banks in theirFrankensteinian manipulations. Alcohol. Alcohol, friendships and cuddles areone of several answers to these unanswerable questions. Call me when it’s allover.

    [/QUOTE]

    Clap
    Welcome back Hug
  • #274312

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Fila]Why, I askmyself, as I wander lonely as a cloud through the mysteries of life, theuniverse and the minds of women, has the bloody dollar soared to such dizzyheights during these particular phases of the Moon? Money is pouring into thedollar and the dollar’s value is responding to this stimulus in similar vein tothose naughty magazines in the sperm bank’s deposit rooms. The dollar musttherefore be perceived as a safe haven by those who, like the Russian rich, aretrying to preserve their riches already under attack by the increasing economicsanctions including the sabotage of the price of oil. And those concerned richcitizens in euroland who are also watching the European currency debaclefalling apart at the seams; all of which activity is a self-fulfilling prophecy;all trying to get out of dubious currencies and into the quagmire of thebankrupt dollar √¢‚Ǩ‚Äú Jesus wept!

    And all this ishappening while poor old America is suffering an astronomical increase in theprice of its exports, much diminished profits from its outsourced offshore industriesnot to mention the big hit on its tourist industry. Adding to which we have thecurrency speculators tossing a four-trillion dollar daily coin in the hope ofpicking up a point or two preceded by a few zeros after the decimal point. It’sa mad, mad world of geopolitical connivance made crazy by central banks in theirFrankensteinian manipulations. Alcohol. Alcohol, friendships and cuddles areone of several answers to these unanswerable questions. Call me when it’s allover.

    [/QUOTE]

    Alcohol. Such an important coping mechanism here the man had to mention it twice!
    -Marc
  • #274317

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=mmaser]Alcohol. Such an important coping mechanism here the man had to mention it twice![/QUOTE]
    Until the alternative herbal remedy to ‘mellow out’ is legalized, I have to agree. To cope in this country, one definitely needs an adult beverage on occasion. Beer
    Off topic: FELIZ ANIVERSÁRIO SVEN!!!BeerBeerBeer
    Gringo.Serrano2015-03-20 09:48:40

  • #274414

    Anonymous

    Having justgone through its entire repertoire of Kamasutra cool moves, the dollar’sspectacular upsurge enlargement appears to have climaxed. Now we have to wait tosee if this royal screwing session was induced by genuine lust or an artificialchemically enhanced performance. It says on the label to relax a little beforea flaccid member may be ready for another onslaught so we must wait, in the newknowledge that the best lubricant for rape is not tears but blood. As I write, thedollar continues drooping from a high of 3.31 to a wet and wrinkly 3.13. Afterthis crazy ride who can predict the next moves?

    Fila2015-03-23 19:45:33

  • #274452

    ffm
    Member

    Now the Brazilian Fed announced that it will scale back its currency control measures.

    Any guesses as to what will happen now? As of this moment, still stable at $3,16
  • #274453

    jeb2886
    Member

    I am guessing they figure this is a flight of capital, and if they simply pull it back hard, it will stabilize as people become confident this is where it will stay.

    Or they have pulled it back hard to ensure end of month transactions with businesses aren’t going to be as painful, when they need to pay off loans, creditors and others.
    It has been tracking other currencies pretty well, this jump goes against those other currencies. They will have to either inject a lot of money to hold it here, or let it slide again next month.
  • #274467

    Anonymous

    Beyond thisrecent meteoric rise in the dollar the Social Security Administration say that:

    39 percent ofAmerican workers make less than $20,000 a year.
    52percent of American workers make less than $30,000 a year.
    63percent of American workers make less than $40,000 a year.
    72percent of American workers make less than $50,000 a year.

    And it’sgetting worse. Household annual income has fallen since 2000 from $57,000 toonly $52,000. The dollar loves Wall Street but doesn’t care for MainStreet.

  • #274473

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Fila]Beyond thisrecent meteoric rise in the dollar the Social Security Administration say that:

    39 percent ofAmerican workers make less than $20,000 a year.

    [/QUOTE]

    ShockedThat’s shocking! I have been contending for some time that the US is on a skid towards Third World status. This cements that belief. This 39% will perpetuate itself and only grow and as it multiplies and produces more mediocre humans.
    Anybody down for an investment scheme in a Crystal Meth Plantation?
  • #274475

    Steven
    Participant

    I’ve been to Europe quite a bit recently on business and, in general, the standard of living difference between the Europeans and the broad American “middle” class is starting to show. It’s difficult for me to pinpoint the differences but they are small, subtle, and growing. I’m very concerned about the quality of education, medical care, and nutrition in the U.S. Again, if you ask for details I would have to point to a myriad of little things but, in my mind, it’s very real.

  • #274476

    Anonymous

    Since the printyour own money FIAT system came into play the world has changed. Democracy hasbeen corrupted by politicians buying votes with socialist-like promises of abetter tomorrow with redistributed wealth. Of course they’re not actually socialists,they’re just unprincipled politicians trying to stay in or be elected intooffice. The cost of their promises iswitnessed by not only the national debt but by the growth of entitlement in an indolentsection of the population for whom the American dream has become a snooze.Again we see the collective idiot voting for something for nothing.

    The supplementalNutrition Assistance Programme [SNAP] otherwise known as food stamps has grownfrom zero in the early 1970s to a whopping $75 billion today and growing yearon year. This means that millions of low income Americans would be malnourishedunless the government intervened. Whatdoes this say about America pre 1970; the land of the free and the hungry?Somehow I just don’t think so. I see it as a downward trend following a periodwhen those millions were more than capable of feeding themselves in one ofhistory’s major growth periods. Today the central banks control the credit uponthe world appears to thrive; credit created out of thin air and not fromearnings or savings. Meanwhile the free market descends into the chaos of thecasino that just may collapse around us any day soon. Hard to believe, isn’tit?

  • #274478

    Steven
    Participant

    Incredible, isn’t it? USD$75 billion for SNAP. Larger than the GDP of about half of the countries of the world.

  • #274480

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Fila]The supplementalNutrition Assistance Programme [SNAP] otherwise known as food stamps has grownfrom zero in the early 1970s to a whopping $75 billion today and growing yearon year…. Hard to believe, isn’tit?[/QUOTE]
    Yeah, but liquor, lap dances, reefer, and hair weaves cost alot more today than in the 1970’s! LOLConfusedAngry

    http://wreg.com/2014/11/04/ebt-cards-used-used-to-buy-hair-weaves-and-tattoos/
    http://nypost.com/2013/01/06/welfare-recipients-take-out-cash-at-strip-clubs-liquor-stores-and-x-rated-shops/
    http://mediamatters.org/blog/2014/02/25/welcome-to-obamas-america-where-you-can-use-foo/198226

    http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/ann-mariemurrell/2012/07/03/free_obamadollars_the_ebt_card_for_cigarettes_and_alcohol/page/full
    Gringo.Serrano2015-03-26 13:57:51

  • #274481

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Steven]I’ve been to Europe quite a bit recently on business and, in general, the standard of living difference between the Europeans and the broad American “middle” class is starting to show. It’s difficult for me to pinpoint the differences but they are small, subtle, and growing. I’m very concerned about the quality of education, medical care, and nutrition in the U.S. Again, if you ask for details I would have to point to a myriad of little things but, in my mind, it’s very real. [/QUOTE]

    I hate to get all hippy and high horse here but I think this has a lot to do with America’s skid. How can people perform as humans, let alone their best, on the CRAP the average American eats!!!!??? When I talk to my sister, an educated high payed professional I am SHOCKED by what she and her family eat. Garbage from boxes, no fresh fruits and veggies (because they are “gross”). This is a family with a combined income of well over $100,000. Imagine the “poor”.
    Europe eats Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than the US. I am not talking about spices and preparation but the ingredients. Metal disease, heart disease, obesity and a myriad of other health problems. All comes from where? The food!
    We literally are, besides the stuff of the stars, what we eat. (Which is stuff from the stars)
  • #274485

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=The Abbot][QUOTE=Steven]I’ve been to Europe quite a bit recently on business and, in general, the standard of living difference between the Europeans and the broad American “middle” class is starting to show. It’s difficult for me to pinpoint the differences but they are small, subtle, and growing. I’m very concerned about the quality of education, medical care, and nutrition in the U.S. Again, if you ask for details I would have to point to a myriad of little things but, in my mind, it’s very real. [/QUOTE]

    I hate to get all hippy and high horse here but I think this has a lot to do with America’s skid. How can people perform as humans, let alone their best, on the CRAP the average American eats!!!!??? When I talk to my sister, an educated high payed professional I am SHOCKED by what she and her family eat. Garbage from boxes, no fresh fruits and veggies (because they are “gross”). This is a family with a combined income of well over $100,000. Imagine the “poor”.
    Europe eats Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than the US. I am not talking about spices and preparation but the ingredients. Metal disease, heart disease, obesity and a myriad of other health problems. All comes from where? The food!
    We literally are, besides the stuff of the stars, what we eat. (Which is stuff from the stars)

    [/QUOTE]

    Yep, the stuffin boxes is finally getting there; the box is prettier and whatever thatcarcinogenic secret ingredient is, whether angel jizz or trans-fat, it has beenpronounced finger-licking good by busy Mums everywhere. It’s called √¢‚ǨÀúding food’because whenever the microwave goes, ding, it’s ready! Is this a communist plotto sap and impurify our precious bodily fluids?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKR32ImWYzw

  • #274486

    Anonymous

    conspiracy indeed- to get us all salivating for corn syrup and msg and whatever else is in doritos. we were just discussing here in this giant merger- imagine the lobbying money this company is going to have to throw around?

    (when we were in the US recently my family kept saying ‘but you spend so much time cooking’. well, yeah, i kind of like to eat, and i mostly prefer to eat food, not crap. they didn’t really see the connection.)
  • #274487

    graham
    Participant

    meh…different life in Brasil. Our life revolves a lot around food too, and we eat everything fresh.

  • #274489

    Serrano
    Participant

    While we’re on the detour of ‘food and nutrition’, I was going to post something else, but stumbled upon this photo, and just couldn’t resist! LOL
    (of course the mac-n-cheese is out of a box, and the green beans from a can, but does anyone truly know WTF is in a hotdog?!?) Dead

  • #274491

    Isos
    Participant

    [QUOTE=3casas]

    (when we were in the US recently my family kept saying ‘but you spend so much time cooking’. well, yeah, i kind of like to eat, and i mostly prefer to eat food, not crap. they didn’t really see the connection.)

    [/QUOTE]
    While I was living in Brasil, that was one of the biggest surprises to me – the time spent preparing meals. It started with pouring beans into a strainer and picking through them by hand to make sure there were no rocks or lesser beans (I don’t know what to call it), then cooking them in a pressure cooker so that they would be ready to be seasoned and cooked further in a pot. Cooking the rice, the meat, the vegetables. This was all for lunch and preparations began a little after 10:00 am. I soon learned the process and was taking my turn at preparing the meals, it was a far cry from how I had been eating in the States – rushing through the drive thru of a fast food joint so that I could hurry back to work or whatever I was involved with. Brasil helped break that bad habit for me. Since my time there I have become much healthier, and have continued to avoid fast foods and most pre-packaged frozen meals. If only I could find the same quality produce here as I found in the stores I frequented in Brasil.

  • #274492

    celso
    Member

    Filled up my car, premium gas at $3.19 a gallon (premium) today. In So California where gas costs .30 more! Regular unleaded is $2.99 a gallon.
    So viva Petrobras and it is Nosso! Brazil will suck for decades as they charge 50% higher for petrol and it hits the cost for food and everything in Btazil. Thank Lula Dilma for the PEtrobras crap. The Real slide much lower..but exports are helped as always…GreatBallsoFire2015-03-27 10:25:04

  • #274494

    Anonymous

    PTrobras goes from bad to worse every day.
    If Dilma loves Bolivarianism so much, here’s a tip she can take from the Chavez playbook:
    Lower prices at the pump.
    R$3.19 — one dollar — is more or less what I’d spend on gas in Venezuela for an entire year.

  • #274496

    Steven
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Isos]
    While I was living in Brasil, that was one of the biggest surprises to me – the time spent preparing meals. It started with pouring beans into a strainer and picking through them by hand to make sure there were no rocks or lesser beans (I don’t know what to call it), then cooking them in a pressure cooker so that they would be ready to be seasoned and cooked further in a pot. Cooking the rice, the meat, the vegetables. This was all for lunch and preparations began a little after 10:00 am. I soon learned the process and was taking my turn at preparing the meals, it was a far cry from how I had been eating in the States – rushing through the drive thru of a fast food joint so that I could hurry back to work or whatever I was involved with. Brasil helped break that bad habit for me. Since my time there I have become much healthier, and have continued to avoid fast foods and most pre-packaged frozen meals. If only I could find the same quality produce here as I found in the stores I frequented in Brasil.
    [/QUOTE]

    Sadly, in the time that my wife has been in the States the amount of time she devotes to cooking fresh food has diminished in proportion to my kids reaching their teenage years and falling into the American fast food trap. They simply don’t want to eat rice and beans anymore.
    My wife still does the bean preparation (as described above) – just not as frequently. Our two pressure cookers still get a workout but slowly declining.
  • #274497

    Anonymous

    Gordon Ramseyand Heston Blumenthal or even little Jamie Oliver, just to mention a few chefs,can advance the palate to the point when the prospect of eating either fastfood or beans & rice becomes an anathema. The drudgery of stuffing yourface with rice & beans √¢‚Ǩ‚Äú I’ve never been a fan; too ethnic and unexciting √¢‚Ǩ‚Äúor gobbling processed cardboard are, for me, the extremes in the food spectrum.Meats, the occasional fish, sauces and vegetables all properly prepared andcooked by means of saut√ɬ©ed, boiled, grilled or roasted in such a variety ofmethods renders excuseless anyone other than those without the minimalist financialwherewithal to engage with the culinary delights. YouTube those guys and getthe gastric juices flowing. Meanwhilethe dollar is at 3.23.

  • #274498

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=picolino]PTrobras goes from bad to worse every day.
    If Dilma loves Bolivarianism so much, here’s a tip she can take from the Chavez playbook:
    Lower prices at the pump.
    R$3.19 — one dollar — is more or less what I’d spend on gas in Venezuela for an entire year.
    [/QUOTE]but think of all you get along with that cheap gas!!

    (actually, i think it is better we don’t give her any ideas. A friend of mine was working at the British Embassy a few years ago and had to be airlifted out when it appeared the povão were going to cook the gringoes and eat them)
  • #274499

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Fila]The drudgery of stuffing yourface with rice & beans √¢‚Ǩ‚Äú I’ve never been a fan; too ethnic and unexciting √¢‚Ǩ‚Äúor gobbling processed cardboard are, for me, the extremes in the food spectrum. [/QUOTE]

    What does too ethnic mean?
  • #274500

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=andrewfroboy][QUOTE=Fila]The drudgery of stuffing yourface with rice & beans √¢‚Ǩ‚Äú I’ve never been a fan; too ethnic and unexciting √¢‚Ǩ‚Äúor gobbling processed cardboard are, for me, the extremes in the food spectrum. [/QUOTE]

    What does too ethnic mean?

    [/QUOTE]

    Interestingthat you should ask such a question, however the obvious answer is that rice& beans is a monotonous dietary fibre and staple of the Brazilian diet; acase of eating to live rather than living to eat.

  • #274502

    akash kumar
    Member

    Fila, I guess eating rice, beans, and gumbo down in the Louisana bayous would be “ethnic” also. Not to mention South Texas food. HandshakeTroy Bains2015-03-27 18:39:27

  • #274504

    celso
    Member

    Hey, beans are expensive in Brazil! Soon only for the rich. Same thing with bananas.GreatBallsoFire2015-03-27 20:02:01

  • #274506

    Anonymous
  • #274511

    jeb2886
    Member

    We’re paying far too little for gas here, we should probably be paying a good 20% more at least! Dilma has been keeping gas prices artifically low for years.

    $3.19 per gallon = R$2.73 per litre here.
    In Vancouver, Canada they’re paying $3.71 US per gallon, or R$3.18 per litre here. They are a major exporter of oil as well.
    Compared with prices elsewhere in the world, Brazil is selling gas for cheap.
  • #274521

    David Denning
    Participant

    23-Mar-2015: The average price of gasoline around the world is 1.07 U.S. Dollar per liter

    Brazil is US$1.05, so just below the average.
    You cannot simply compare prices of single commodities though, but have to take into account a whole raft of other things into consideration – like average earnings, cost of living index, etc. If you compare average earnings in Canada and Brazil – Canada US$2724 a month, Brazil US$778 (ILO figures for 2009) – that actually shows that Brazil are paying a much higher price in real terms for petrol.
    But then we can manipulate statistics to prove whatever point we are making!
  • #274522

    jeb2886
    Member

    Should we price gold the same way? Depending on average earnings it should be a lot cheaper here, than say in the US?

    It’s a commodity, the lowest price you’re going to get it is in the US. That is the base price.
    Gas consume a tremendous amount of resources, road building, road maintenance, police, hospital care for those injured 7/10 are from motor bikes around here.
    So you want to tax accordingly, and most countries tax higher for gas to cover all these expenses, the US goes with a model of high quantity consumer, lower taxes. Really, it’s the only country that does that though, every other country goes with consume as little as you can, and we’re going to tax it to ensure that, and to cover all the social costs involved with your driving.
    It doesn’t matter WHAT brazilians make, they have to pay the world market prices for the oil just like everyone else. They don’t get discounts here. Then they have to pay for the actual usage of those services.
  • #274523

    David Denning
    Participant

    Not sure quite what the point you are making here?? The price of oil isset by the world markets, and is much lower (currently somewhere around US$0.60 a litre for refined petrol) than the selling price in Brazil. In my view this means that the US$0.45 “mark-up” in Brazilian pump prices is the cost “of all these expenses”. In the UK duty and VAT account for much of the high price, so I assume that these are much lower in Brazil. You appear to be trying to infer that Brazil is subsidising petrol to sell it at below cost (like Venezuela!), when we are paying for “actual usage”.

  • #274524

    jeb2886
    Member

    I used current gas prices in both Brazil, US and Canada, which used the new lower prices. What really should have happened is gas should have been about R$6+ during the last 5 years and it wasn’t. It was sold under market.

    The US dumps a huge amount of money from other taxes into maintaining their road systems and they have some major economies of scale going on.

    The point is, you can’t compare US taxes with Brazil taxes. Comparing European gas prices is more realistic in keeping up with the true costs of gas, regardless of what people make here, they should be paying the full amount to drive, which includes all the other costs involved.
  • #274529

    Serrano
    Participant

    Speaking of gasoline, thought I’d throw a little on the still smoldering coals of the 2008 financial ‘meltdown’.

    The Crash of 2016
    And if that’s not enough fuel for the fire….
    Hillary Clinton 2016: A Recipe for Endless War

  • #274533

    graham
    Participant

    In additionto the price of gas…

    Actually,motoristas in Brasil do get what they pay for…one way or another. Richer stateshave better roads, poorer states have poorer roads.

    Generallyspeaking, the government (state/federal) in Brasil, does a mediocre to poor jobof maintaining road systems, in comparison to the US and Europe. The taxes paidon cars and combustibles are inefficiently apportioned and managed. Still,quite modern and good motorways do exist, but only when privately subsidized byconcessioners who manage and maintain stretches of road and charge high pricesat their pedagios. Better motorways = additionally high cost of privatemanagement √¢‚Ǩ‚Äú a very lucrative business for the concessioners. The state of SãoPaulo is exemplary of this method of infrastructure management and maintenance. The super highways of SP are great, but expensiveto traverse; the cost of paying the pedagios is equal to or greater than thecost of the combustible to make the trip. Thus paulistas, on average, spend alot more per kilometer than simply gas. The federal highways, which also chargepedagios, fall short of providing roads of the same quality.

    o jeito

  • #274534

    Anonymous

    My Friday eveningget-together with a few friends became a pretty sobering affair when one memberof the group unloaded his view on the immediate ramifications of the Petrobrasscandal. Seemingly a little over a quarter of a million of Brazil’s finestspecialist workers/engineers hitherto employed in associated petrochemicalindustries are now unemployed and are on the scrap heap. Investment projectswhere billions have already been spent are now abandoned indefinitely while supplies/contractorswhistle for payment. Other major contracts have now gone to China and India.The incompetence, cover-up and mind-blowing waste of money were described bythis insider in nauseating detail and his prognosis was that we ain’t seennothin’ yet and that we’re a long way off reaching the bottom of this dip. “Thegood times have been wasted and nothing can be recovered√¢‚Ǩ¬¶the media is boughtand paid for and Brazil will lose many years because of this.” The LatinAmerican curse has struck yet again.

  • #274538

    Steven
    Participant

    I’m here in the land of samba this week and was discussing the business climate with a colleague. He indicated that many of the very large manufacturers are already planning ferias coletivas prior to mid-year. It seems that the prospect of a major recession in Brazil is unavoidable.

  • #274541

    ffm
    Member

    I am pretty sure it has been declared that we are already (officially) in a recession.

  • #274543

    Finrudd
    Participant

    I assume this will have quite a big impact on fellow gringoes working in the Oil & Gas sector – there were lots around Macae from what I recall. I have seen plans for quite a few international hotels in and around Macae and I wonder how many of these projects will now get shelved.

  • #274654

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    and it’s back down to 3.10… I cannot fathom how these exchange rates are so apt to changes, minute by minute. Though educated in biology, currency exchange has really openned my eyes to the fact although I can make an identical copy of a mammal, the money I request for this service internationally will change minute by minute making the work profitable or not, depending on the contract. Crazy to have so much “power” in the area of reproductive biology be be highly manupilated by people designating currency exchange rates. I believe I’m in the wrong business!

    -Marc
  • #274658

    ffm
    Member

    Trying to clone dollars is highly illegal! LOL

  • #274660

    Anonymous

    Cloning amammal may very well have taken the combined genius of a couple of generationsof teams of talented biologists absorbing huge investments of cash yet thecruel reality is that with no greater investment than a couple of martinis andsome sweet talk anyone can make a reasonable facsimile of the mostsophisticated mammal on any given Saturday night of passion.

    Sure, cloningis a big deal but it’s not sexy whereas gambling is. As much as 8% of theglobal GDP is traded daily in the currency market. Both small and large playersare glued to their screens as they make their bets valued at over 5 trillion USdollars. Winner, winner, chicken dinner for yet another bunch of useless parasitesfeeding off and disrupting the global financial system.

    So, apart fromwinning a Nobel Prize or simply earning a modest salary, the great unwashed areonly vaguely amused by biologists cloning sheep or perhaps scared of having anew and improved young George Bush. Always follow the money.

  • #274665

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=mmaser]and it’s back down to 3.10… I cannot fathom how these exchange rates are so apt to changes, minute by minute.[/QUOTE]
    Quite possibly, this news had an effect….

    Larry Summers has a major warning for the US economy, and everyone should be paying attention!

    EDIT: Another link – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-06/larry-summers-the-past-month-may-go-down-as-a-turning-point-for-u-s-economic-power
    Gringo.Serrano2015-04-06 13:38:08

  • #274666

    ffm
    Member

    Didn’t that bank already make a hefty investment in Petrobras?

    Reading those articles makes me feel that the US government is its own worse enemy with its childish partisan bickering. US “greatness” is truly gone and won’t be recouped any time soon with the boobs in charge and the boobs voting for them.
    We are in a world of hurt when the Chinese have all the power.
  • #274667

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]Trying to clone dollars is highly illegal! LOL[/QUOTE]

    Yes, but it is fun telling the cashier when she is inspecting the notes I gave her, ” They are good and fresh, made them myself this morning”! This always gets a worried look and then a smile!
    Fila,
    You are completely correct as the technology which lead to mammalian cloning began in 1938 with Hans Spemann’s work in salamander oocytes and John Gurdons Nobel work in cloning leapord frogs. Later experiments, such as cloning Dolly, were adaptions to the amphibian cloning protocol, nothing more. The money in cloning mammals alone is long gone which is why we have diversified to ICSI, blastocyst biopsy, for SNP analysis and sexing as well as gene editing and transgenic animals.
    Time to get my head out of the microscope and being to pay attention to where the money goes!
    -Marc
  • #274670

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=Fila]a couple of martinis andsome sweet talk[/QUOTE]
    …candy is dandy but liquor is quicker.

  • #274710

    ffm
    Member

    Scaled back to R$3.04

    Is it the effect of the Asian Development Bank? Nothing has improved in Brazil fundamentally or superficially.
  • #274711

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]Scaled back to R$3.04

    Is it the effect of the Asian Development Bank? Nothing has improved in Brazil fundamentally or superficially.

    [/QUOTE]

    Go baby go!!! I can predict the amplitude of ocean waves better then currency exchanges minute to minute but I’ll happily ride this wave down to parity to the USD and beyond!Clap
    -Marc
  • #274741

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    China seems to be taking over, they’ve invested billions in developing an ocean port in Mexico and use NAFTA from there for their exports to US, including Canada which means no more need for vessels to go to Long Beach and they are alread worried about it. Yes and export cost at least for the West Coast are going up as well. Brazil also needs their imports, for the technology that they don’t have and 2.80 -2.90 seems to be a good range where everyone has a chance to import. Also there is no free time at the air and ocean ports and storage charges is a huge and profitable business for Brazil not to mention the up to 100 percent taxes/duties they collect on imports. Currency manipulation maybe to favor exports/imports.

  • #274747

    jeb2886
    Member

    Import costs to the US are nothing compared with corruption, and mafia getting involved and lost trucks on the way up to the border. Once people realize there is a steady stream of expensive imports going up that way, they’ll find a way to profit off of it.

    Do you think Brazilians are pocketing that money they aren’t spending on exports right now? Saving it up under their mattresses…. OR…. I have a wild idea here… are they spending it elsewhere, on locally produced items where the government is going to collect even more taxes? They get the taxes from the product, they get the taxes from all the employees who produced that item, those employees spend it all locally…nothing really ends up going over seas so 100% of the money stays in Brazil. 0 imports is the best thing for Brazil.
    Considering the USDCAD (oil exporter), and USDEUR are still going up while the USDBRL is going down, says the government is most likely using it’s currency swaps right now to bring it back down. The USDBRL moved in line with Canada’s oil export problems, now it’s not.
    Japan is now the largest holder of US treasury bills now. China is holding 6.6%. Of course US citizens hold 65% still. I’m sure someone will bring that up, without the actual percentages of course, to make it sound doom and gloom 🙂
  • #274764

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]

    Japan is now the largest holder of US treasury bills now. China is holding 6.6%. Of course US citizens hold 65% still. I’m sure someone will bring that up, without the actual percentages of course, to make it sound doom and gloom 🙂

    [/QUOTE]
    It’s hardly a picnic, unless you’re in the top 1%.
    As for the other 99%, while maybe not doom and gloom (yet), hardly comforting knowing you’ll most likely be left holding the bag of unimaginable public debt (and already struggling with your own).

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-10/the-u-s-middle-class-poorer-than-you-think
    But back to the forex, perhaps to be of interest: http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-dollar-long-trade-is-taking-pause-2015-4

  • #274915

    doctorlili
    Member

    Yes, I think buying state debt is an immoral act, almost as bad as voting for raising the debt. You are indebting innocent children. How can you expect to be paid back? What violent measures will you support in order to recover your money you foolishly gave to a government on the promise that is subjects would be obligated to pay you back? I despise treasury bills, it is the biggest corruption scheme that exists in all of politics.
    Back to the exchange rate. I am hearing that we can see the BRL fall again in a few months. There are more bad news to come soon. Unfortunately I need to transfer more money here for my various activities. What you guys think? Take a short term loan here or transfer now before the USD falls further?Squiddie2015-04-29 15:24:14

  • #274916

    celso
    Member

    Never borrow money in Brazil. Bring in what you need now. Plan on more later as Real is set for a bigger fall.

  • #274919

    doctorlili
    Member

    Thanks GBF, curious: why the rule “never borrow money in Brazil”? I am thinking of a short term balloon type loan from a friend who might have cash sitting around idle.Squiddie2015-04-29 15:23:01

  • #274920

    celso
    Member

    Banks charge outrageous interest rates in Brazil.
    Your friend with the balloon? Loans among friends often destroy relationships. Why bother?

  • #274922

    graham
    Participant

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Banks charge outrageous interest rates in Brazil.
    Your friend with the balloon? Loans among friends often destroy relationships. Why bother?
    [/QUOTE]

    very wise advice. pay it careful attention rather than learn it the hard way.
    “neither a borrower nor a lender be…”

    Grads2015-04-29 17:01:10

  • #274923

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Q1 GDP, not surprising and it’s true re. strong dollar and the WCoast ports dispute :
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102630190

  • #274924

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    I agree with GBF , not worth paying interest rate. I would pay off all debt with cash before real or usd or any currency for that matter devalues due to inflation or for any other reason. If I have cash still left in the bank, I would invest in hard assets.

  • #274935

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]Back to the exchange rate. I am hearing that we can see the BRL fall again in a few months. There are more bad news to come soon. Unfortunately I need to transfer more money here for my various activities. What you guys think? Take a short term loan here or transfer now before the USD falls further?[/QUOTE]
    Squiddie, I assume you still have a flag planted back on Tio Sam’s fazenda. If so, and with interest rates quite low there, why not take out your loan in the EUA? Back at the beginning of the year, when we were in an obvious upswing USD:BRL, I did precisely that with a financial institution I still maintain an account with on the fazenda.
    I’ve been a client for decades, so was quite easy to apply on-line and obtain a ‘signature loan’. No collateral, nada. Although the interest rate is high for US standards (9.50 per annum for a 24 month term/9.75% for 36 months), the gain I realized with the exchange rate has already covered those interest payments. Plus, much less than the rate one would pay on a cash advance on their credit card.
    I didn’t want to close out any investments here, but with expenses running over budget with my “various activities”, this seemed like a quick and easy way to raise some cash. The monthly payments are automatically deducted from my account there, so no worries.
    I agree with the others… NEVER borrow money from friends or family!

  • #274936

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]
    I agree with the others… NEVER borrow money from friends or family!
    [/QUOTE]

    Holy crap, I cannot agree with this more!!! No matter what your intentions it will always go bad!
    -Marc
  • #274943

    doctorlili
    Member

    OK, guys. I don’t need to borrow money in the US, only trying to get over the current dip in USD exchange rate. I understand that lending money to friends is crazy (“emprestimo” hue hue hue). It’s OK, then. I’ll see what I’ll do. Looks like the USD is inching up again. 3.02 this morning.

  • #275016

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Fila]Gordon Ramseyand Heston Blumenthal or even little Jamie Oliver, just to mention a few chefs,can advance the palate to the point when the prospect of eating either fastfood or beans & rice becomes an anathema. [/QUOTE]
    Just read over the weekend a magazine article about a restaurant Jamie Oliver opened in São Paulo (his first in the Americas). The focus is Italian, and located in Itaim Bibi.
    Anyone been? Finrudd? Picolino?

  • #275017

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]Just read over the weekend a magazine article about a restaurant Jamie Oliver opened in São Paulo (his first in the Americas). The focus is Italian, and located in Itaim Bibi.
    Anyone been? Finrudd? Picolino?[/QUOTE]
    Can’t speak for Finrudd, but I haven’t been there yet.
    That said, I am SO going! And I am bringing my oldest (she’s a self-professed Jamie Oliver groupie).
    Marc, how about you? Italian by Jamie Oliver sounds better than the Mexican place we went to last time, good as it was.

  • #275023

    Wow.. this site is so 1999. I’m used to tagging people. Too bad you can’t do that here.
    Anyway, 2 things:
    1) We’re going back to 2,60’something
    2) Don’t borrow money, but why not invest money you already make here. I saw some CDBs going for 15%.

  • #275035

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=picolino]
    Marc, how about you? Italian by Jamie Oliver sounds better than the Mexican place we went to last time, good as it was.
    [/QUOTE]

    Without a doubt next time I’m in São Paulo with the family, we are going there! My wife enjoys watching Jamie Oliver’s shows. It will be a great surprise!
    -Marc
  • #275036

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    [QUOTE=andrew_nofro]Wow.. this site is so 1999. I’m used to tagging people. Too bad you can’t do that here.
    Anyway, 2 things:
    1) We’re going back to 2,60’something
    2) Don’t borrow money, but why not invest money you already make here. I saw some CDBs going for 15%.
    [/QUOTE]

    While belief of information a person wants to believe is much easier to accept, as in 1,00 USD = 2,60 BRL, what leads you to this comclusion?
    -Marc
  • #275051

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=andrew_nofro]Wow.. this site is so 1999. I’m used to tagging people. Too bad you can’t do that here.
    Anyway, 2 things:
    1) We’re going back to 2,60’something
    2) Don’t borrow money, but why not invest money you already make here. I saw some CDBs going for 15%.
    [/QUOTE]

    Not negating you with this question: How do you figure?
  • #275055

    Finrudd
    Participant

    [QUOTE=andrew_nofro]Wow.. this site is so 1999. I’m used to tagging people. Too bad you can’t do that here.
    Anyway, 2 things:
    1) We’re going back to 2,60’something
    2) Don’t borrow money, but why not invest money you already make here. I saw some CDBs going for 15%.
    [/QUOTE]

    SELIC just went up last week, and there are quite a few good CDB at the moment. HSBC have one (not saying its good) that is doing consistently over 1% per month and did 1.3% for April.
  • #275056

    celso
    Member

    The Real is imploding. BNDES bad loans hide Federal debt problem and will haunt Brazil for decades. Petrobras, Electrobras, Lula 2nda Volta, sends Real to 3.8 to 4.0 by year end.

  • #275058

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=finrudd][QUOTE=andrew_nofro]Wow.. this site is so 1999. I’m used to tagging people. Too bad you can’t do that here.
    Anyway, 2 things:
    1) We’re going back to 2,60’something
    2) Don’t borrow money, but why not invest money you already make here. I saw some CDBs going for 15%.
    [/QUOTE]

    SELIC just went up last week, and there are quite a few good CDB at the moment. HSBC have one (not saying its good) that is doing consistently over 1% per month and did 1.3% for April.

    [/QUOTE]
    For residents here that do not particularly care about the exchange risk, believe that inflation will remain beneath those levels, and generally tolerate the country risk that comes with living here, that ain’t a bad deal. Perhaps for expat retirees, looking for income, to try and hedge their rapidly escalating costs down here.

  • #275059

    miguel
    Participant

    As for offshore carry- and day- traders, looking to make a quick buck and desperately arbitrage the measly interest rates (that is, if they aren’t already negative) received in the financially repressed US, or Europe, they will end up getting slaughtered once again, as soon as the next crisis hits, and the exchange rate hits the skids, overwhelming their interest rate gains, forcing them to lock in their losses as they close out their positions in a panic (finally coming to grips with the nature of the true risk-return equation down here).
    miguel2015-05-04 12:32:48

  • #275070

    why back to 2,60?
    Because prices like to retrace and test previous levels.
    After that, my guess is as good as anyone else’s. You’d need a crystal ball to know that, and they were out of them the last time I went to Carrefour.
    You kind of have to watch the “pessimism”… whenever people who know nothing start saying the sky is falling, you better do the opposite. Pessimism seemed to be at a fever pitch last month.
    Back to investing:
    I like the fixed income market a lot more in Brazil than in the US: better rates (albeit more inflation) and more guarantees from the banks. The interest rate question in the US has me skittish.

  • #275075

    jeb2886
    Member

    Your assuming this is Brazils doing, that it went from 2.40 to 3.30 because of Brazil, but it’s not. It’s because of the US. US went up against the EUR and other oil producing countries like Canada. They aren’t coming back down and ‘testing’ anything. Had this been an economic issue in Brazil, that migth make sense as to the sentiment of the people, but this is purely US got stronger, everyone else stayed where they were.

    We came back down because Brazil was fighting, and they fought it back to 2.90ish, and now it’s closing in at 3.10 again today. There is a lot of pressure to go back to where all the other currencies have gone.
  • #275076

    Anonymous

    Without wishingto be obsessively pedantic might I point out that while the US continues tobuild its debt levels, thereby inarguably weakening its economic strength, itis the almighty and much abused dollar, the global reserve currency, which hasstrengthened on the currency markets for technical reasons.

  • #275077

    I didn’t say WHEN. But it always comes back to test. It could take years, as in the dollar’s case. You actually confirmed that in your last paragraph:
    There is a lot of pressure to go back to where all the other currencies have gone.
    That said, the banks that lend the FED money love wars and deficits, so I’m wondering which is going to come first: the dollar going way above parity with the Euro, or them starting another war in order to “liberate” the people.
    I love Oliver Stone’s quote about wars (roughly paraphrased) “Wars are like drinking alcohol; to maintain the buzz you have to drink more and more. You can never stop drinking.”

  • #275079

    Someone mentioned bad loans from BNDES. That’s another thing I like about Brazilian FI versus American FI. If an institution goes belly up in Brazil, you get your money up to R$ 250k, assuming your are buying CDB or Letters of Credit. In the USSA, you are SOL.
    That’s why I’m curious to see if they are going to tighten their underwriting, or eventually go bust and start doing it American-style. I personally think they are going to make it harder to get loans by increasing the equity required, for all sorts of loans.

  • #275080

    Miguel works in finance, so maybe he can give his take on everything.

  • #275083

    jeb2886
    Member
    @File, the US manufactures and produces a lot of goods. They have a huge economy based off that. Plenty of strength there. The debt while huge, is still a fairly small amount and still easily repaid. There is currently no will to raise taxes to close that gap and pay back anything though. The NYT’s had a good piece on it years ago. Basically “how would you balance the budget” and removing the bush tax cuts (done, and that did bring down the deficit a lot) and implementing 2 new taxes was all it took. You could try and cut spending here and there, but in reality, putting in a VAT style tax and putting in one higher tax bracket took care of it all.

    Not sure why you think US banks going bust aren’t insured, but they are. You’ll get your money back.

  • #275085

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Not sure why you think US banks going bust aren’t insured, but they are. You’ll get your money back.

    [/QUOTE]
    Banks offer what? A CD for 1.72%/year. Common… that rate is terrible. And that’s all they offer, but it is insured. For anyone to get a better rate, they have to look into Preferred stock, Bonds, etc… none of that is insured. Between last year and this year, I’ve already seen a few preferred issues go bankrupt with a few losing considerable value.
    Meanwhile, in the land of samba, there are several attractive investments yielding more. My criticism of US Banks is not being insured/uninsured. Their product offerings suck, big time (Just CDs.).
  • #275098

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=andrew_nofro]
    2) Don’t borrow money, but why not invest money you already make here. I saw some CDBs going for 15%. [/QUOTE]
    WHERE did you see CDBs for 15%?!?

  • #275100

    Finrudd
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano][QUOTE=andrew_nofro]
    2) Don’t borrow money, but why not invest money you already make here. I saw some CDBs going for 15%. [/QUOTE]
    WHERE did you see CDBs for 15%?!?
    [/QUOTE]

    GS – HSBC Brasil has a Previdencia that is doing around that – 1.3% in April this year. I don’t know the difference between CDB and this, but if it continues like this, it’s going to top 15% this year.
  • #275107

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano][QUOTE=andrew_nofro]
    2) Don’t borrow money, but why not invest money you already make here. I saw some CDBs going for 15%. [/QUOTE]
    WHERE did you see CDBs for 15%?!?
    [/QUOTE]
    A good site to bookmark:
    http://jurus.com.br/index.html#/ativos/tesourodireto
    Just click on CDBs.
    Mainstream banks, BdB, Caixa, etc.. all rape their clients. There’s a whole nother world out there.

  • #275108

    [QUOTE=Fila]Without wishingto be obsessively pedantic might I point out that while the US continues tobuild its debt levels, thereby inarguably weakening its economic strength, itis the almighty and much abused dollar, the global reserve currency, which hasstrengthened on the currency markets for technical reasons.

    [/QUOTE]
    I don’t know what to call the phenomenon, but when you live outside of a country, you see things from a more “independent” angle. Maybe this is why the US makes life <more difficult> for expats.
    Let history speak for itself: Whenever any world leader has threatened the US Dollar, they get suicided or killed: Ghadaffi, Sadaam are the most recent “examples”.
    The media is extremely good at manipulating people. That’s why I basically don’t pay attention to it. When they cram “those subjects down your throat you don’t care to hear about”, it’s just smoke to engage people in those nonsensical issues in order to keep people from thinking critically about other more important issues.
    But back to the Real: there will always be wars, so don’t expect the dollar to stay strong forever.

  • #275344

    Serrano
    Participant


    No Life Boats Left

    (but maybe your home country consulate will send a helicopter to airlift you out) Confused
    Gringo.Serrano2015-05-25 15:06:28

  • #275345

    S Bibb
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]
    No Life Boats Left

    (but maybe your home country consulate will send a helicopter to airlift you out) Confused
    [/QUOTE]
    i knew there was something scary about hsbc: their spokesman is stephen king!

  • #275357

    Serrano
    Participant

    ^^^Only a journalist would catch that! LOL
    Good call norah!

  • #275358

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]
    ^^^Only a journalist would catch that! LOL
    Good call norah!
    [/QUOTE]

    I’m not sure if it’s because norah mentioned it but that jumped out at me as well. Kind of a scary article.
    Any one into podcasts? Dan Carlin has a series called Hardcore History. It’s great. You can get it on itunes, etc.
    Anyway, my point is, I listened to his series on WW I recently. There are scary parallels. Though not identical by any means, the domino effect of bad things happening around the same time is similar.
  • #275360

    S Bibb
    Participant

    seriously, how could ‘stephen king’ not jump out at you? i can just imagine the chatter the poor guy must endure . . . “yeah, i get that a lot.”

  • #275361

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]
    No Life Boats Left

    (but maybe your home country consulate will send a helicopter to airlift you out) Confused
    [/QUOTE]
    Speaking of all things literary:
    – Gringo.Serrano’s literary device of “helicopter” (G.S: intentional or subliminal?) here also caught my attention.
    Query: Could that metaphorical consulate airlift be any more useless than Helicopter Ben’s – and now Helicopter Janet’s – QE over the past 7 years? LOL

  • #275371

    Serrano
    Participant

    I wish I was that sagacious Miguel. Yet the use of ‘helicopter’ did have a double entendre. Did anyone paynotice to Stephen King’s really scarystatement that “the last resortmight have to be ‘helicopter money’, a radically different form of QEthat injects money into the veins of the economy by fundinggovernment spending“!!!

    Ummm,now let me figure this out. If the government (EUA) is alreadysome 18 TRILLION in debt, howdoes one fund more spending?!?

    Oh…now I get it… by creating even more debt! Silly me, how simple.

    Andspeaking of Helicopter Janet, did you happen to *this article Miguelin FT the other day, where Ms. Yellen is quoted as saying: “Based on many years of making economic projections, I can assureyou that any specific projection I write down will turn out to bewrong, perhaps markedly so.”

    Now thatis comforting, isn’tit?

    *http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4fa54706-008b-11e5-b91e-00144feabdc0.html

    (link might require one to sign in,which is free)

    The article goes on to say that “someeconomists are even talking about a ‘great reset‘…” RUH-ROH!

    And note today’s headline at FT:”Renminbi no longer undervalued, states IMF”. What have I beensaying?

    Lastly, this goes out to the sockpuppet who joined the forum yesterday, who has waytoo many houses. Similar to the irritating 38 Special, youcontinue parroting with the same harassment by statingI hate the USA. Dissent is not hatred. Dissent is the highest formof patriotism.

    Infact, it was a group of dissenters who threw off the shacklesof King George, and broke away from Mother England by declaring theirindependence. I’ll say the same to you as theysaid: Don’t tread on me!Back off jack. Got it?!

  • #275372

    ffm
    Member

    WTF is a “great reset”?

    I can 100% guarantee without a shadow of a doubt that it won’t be good for “regular folk”.
    Yikes mesmo! Shocked
  • #275379

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]Andspeaking of Helicopter Janet, did you happen to *this article Miguelin FT the other day, where Ms. Yellen is quoted as saying: “Based on many years of making economic projections, I can assureyou that any specific projection I write down will turn out to bewrong, perhaps markedly so.”
    [/QUOTE]
    I did. And the specific projection she made that day was that she would begin to collect that helicopter money by the end of the year ….

  • #275966

    Serrano
    Participant

    Any Game of Thrones fans out there? How could you not love the final episode of Season 5, where the evil queen was stripped and shorn, then made to walk naked through the town as the citizenry cried “Shame! Shame!!” (as well as other insults)?!?
    Parabensto the people of Brasil for having the sacos to berate and to shame a previous figure of the Planalto Kingdom! If only the sheeple back on Tio’s Fazenda had such sacos. Yet were they to shame some of the financial scumbags on Wall Street, Treasury Dept, and the Fed, they’d probably be arrested as domestic terrorists (shame!).
    http://www.revistaforum.com.br/blog/2015/06/guido-mantega-sofre-agressao-verbal-em-restaurante-de-sao-paulo/
    ClapClapClap

  • #275967

    graham
    Participant

    GOT is fun. They really know how to jerk the plot around. Do you feel sorry for Cerce? Still not everyone has met a just fate. It’s an entertaining series, but I’m almost tired of it these days. Probably wouldn’t be watching it at all unless I could record it.

    The video of Mantega on the plane is priceless. He was a futz, to put it kindly. In this vein, the current re-run (from 07/2014) of Dilma’s little “everything’s OK and we are reducing the cost of electricity for YOU” speech deserves as much air time as possible. Funny how one year, an election and a falling house of cards changes the picture. Subterfuge or ineptness?
  • #275970

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Grads]Subterfuge or ineptness?[/QUOTE]
    Both!

    A longer version of the video of Mantega’s most recent shaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-lETXPdRSA
    Gringo.Serrano2015-07-06 19:46:04

  • #275974

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]
    Any Game of Thrones fans out there?
    [/QUOTE]
    Not until last month – when watched the entire 5 seasons in a few (marathon) sessions
    Highly entertaining, but agree with grads in that the last season’s plots were especially convoluted.
    Read that that was because the original source material had by then largely been transferred to the screen, and the producers wanted to prolong things a bit. (Although regrettably not in the case of Jon Snow.)
    miguel2015-07-06 21:29:40

  • #275976

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Everytime you find yourself liking someone just be ready for them to die, like GOT, but it’s kinda depressing.

  • #275977

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]
    Any Game of Thrones fans out there? How could you not love the final episode of Season 5, where the evil queen was stripped and shorn, then made to walk naked through the town as the citizenry cried “Shame! Shame!!” (as well as other insults)?!?
    Parabensto the people of Brasil for having the sacos to berate and to shame a previous figure of the Planalto Kingdom! If only the sheeple back on Tio’s Fazenda had such sacos. Yet were they to shame some of the financial scumbags on Wall Street, Treasury Dept, and the Fed, they’d probably be arrested as domestic terrorists (shame!).
    http://www.revistaforum.com.br/blog/2015/06/guido-mantega-sofre-agressao-verbal-em-restaurante-de-sao-paulo/
    ClapClapClap
    [/QUOTE]
    Did you see what Dilma got in the white house? I saw it on Zap Zap and cannot find a link. It was prices as well.
    I just hope they keep it coming. These scoundrels should not be comfortable anywhere.

  • #275982

    oweng
    Member
  • #276153

    Serrano
    Participant

    Not sure if anyone reallynoticed here in Brasil, but the trading floor of the NYSE was shutdown one day last week (July 8) for three and a half hours, due to a’glitch’. Yet since almost all trading is donenow electronically, there was little overall effect that day (in thisinstance).

    While reading about itover the weekend, one press release linked to the article below,written in 1915, about how the stock market, ALL the exchangesworldwide, closed in 1914 for over four months, when World War Oneliterally broke out overnight. Quite interesting, and food forthought as Russia, China, and the US slide their assorted pawns andother ranks along the global chess board.

    http://web-docs.stern.nyu.edu/salomon/docs/creditdebtmarkets/S-CDM-03-10.pdf

    Read this once somewhere,and always remembered it: “It’s better to get out of the marketone year early, than one day late.Wink

    EDIT: I book marked several articles discussing the closure of all stock exchanges when WW1 broke out. This is the one I intend the link to direct to, but I’ll leave the other link above as it is, because it’s a good read as well….http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/29443


    Gringo.Serrano2015-07-17 16:58:54

  • #276159

    ffm
    Member

    The only thing I have heard about this “glitch” were vehement denials of hacking. Doth protest too much? was what came to mind but other than that I heard no further details.

  • #276168

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]The only thing I have heard about this “glitch” were vehement denials of hacking. [/QUOTE]
    ‘Coincidentally’, Dilma, Putin, and the other BRICS leaders were conversing in Russia. NO hackers there, nope, none….

  • #276173

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]’Coincidentally’, Dilma, Putin, and the other BRICS leaders were conversing in Russia. NO hackers there, nope, none….[/QUOTE]

    What does this mean?
  • #276183

    ffm
    Member
    If I am not mistaken, some news outlets suffered a similar “glitch” at exactly the same time. Like I said, I have not followed the story but I think Wall Street Journal was one of them.
    Very strange!
  • #276194

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]

    If I am not mistaken, some news outlets suffered a similar “glitch” at exactly the same time. Like I said, I have not followed the story but I think Wall Street Journal was one of them.
    Very strange!

    [/QUOTE]
    Yes. Also Valor Economico at the same time as WSJ.

  • #276195

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=miguel][QUOTE=The Abbot]

    If I am not mistaken, some news outlets suffered a similar “glitch” at exactly the same time. Like I said, I have not followed the story but I think Wall Street Journal was one of them.
    Very strange!

    [/QUOTE]
    Yes. Also Valor Economico at the same time as WSJ.
    [/QUOTE]
    WOW! Because I heard what I heard from an American podcast, they did not mention Valor. That heightens the weird factor for me even more.
    Might be time to dust off the tin foil hat! (jkg) LOL

  • #276223

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    [QUOTE=The Abbot]
    <div =”msg”>
    If I am not mistaken, some news outlets suffered a similar “glitch”
    at exactly the same time. Like I said, I have not followed the story but
    I think Wall Street Journal was one of them.
    Very strange! [/QUOTE]
    Delta airlines was also down and had planes grounded for two hours on the same day and maybe around the same time (?) A lot of hacking going on lately to large corp that are holding clients’ sensitive info like credit card numbers, SS/tax id numbers and even medical history.

  • #276225

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano] Any Game of Thrones fans out there?√Ǭ† How could you not love the final episode of Season 5, where the evil queen was stripped and shorn, then made to walk naked through the town as the citizenry cried “Shame!√Ǭ† Shame!!” (as well as other insults)?!?Parabensto the people of Brasil for having the sacos to berate and to shame a previous figure of the Planalto Kingdom!√Ǭ† If only the sheeple back on Tio’s Fazenda had such sacos.√Ǭ† Yet were they to shame some of the financial scumbags on Wall Street, Treasury Dept, and the Fed, they’d probably be arrested as domestic terrorists (shame!).[URL=http://www.revistaforum.com.br/blog/2015/06/guido-mantega-sofre-agressao-verbal-em-restaurante-de-sao-paulo/” rel=”nofollow]http://www.revistaforum.com.br/blog/2015/06/guido-mantega-sofre-agressao-verbal-em-restaurante-de-sao- UNQUOTE
    No kidding, sad but true, arrested probably with the help of drones… Btw the current conflicts/wars alone make you want to be dissent but … we better not go there.

  • #276463

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    Woah! Look at the USD go this week! It’s up to 3.30!

    -Marc
  • #276474

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=mmaser]Woah! Look at the USD go this week! [/QUOTE]
    ‘Murica! /s

  • #276475

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    A piece of gentle music to accompany the Real as it sinks oncemore into the oblivion of Latin American chaos, witlessness and corruption:

    Esprit2015-07-24 21:03:41

  • #276482

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=mmaser]Woah! Look at the USD go this week! It’s up to 3.30!

    [/QUOTE]
    And today, 3.36! I have a nota cem on Papai Noel bringing us 4.0…. Wink
    (a year ago we were at 2.22)
  • #276483

    Steven
    Participant

    2.22 x 2 = 4.44.
    Why not?

  • #276484

    Steven
    Participant

    My dollars are already in the process of flying south. More of their colleagues will be coming soon.

  • #276485

    ffm
    Member

    I just bought a pair of Ray Ban Aviators (polarized) HERE IN BRAZIL!!!!!!!! I never thought I’d see the day. They are much cheaper than in the US with this exchange rate and a deep discount.
    (There is one more pair left in black. PM me if you are interested in the link!!! ) 😉

  • #276486

    Anonymous

    Seriously, Abbot, I hear you- we just bought two cell phones here in Brazil. Considering exchange and particular needs (lower-end for the kid and the shop, will probably just get lost/broken/stolen anyway) it worked out to be the about the same price, and less hassle of shlepping back and forth on upcoming trip.

  • #276491

    Finrudd
    Participant

    I have seen similar things with computer hardware, where stock in Brazil is suddenly more attractively priced for me than the same thing that I would consider bringing back from the US or UK. The only thing that bothers me is that this will be a short-lived thing. Fairly soon, stock held in Brazil will be exhausted, and the new pricing here will reflect the new exchange rate – of course, some resellers have already put the price on their existing stock up to cash-in…

  • #276494

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=finrudd]I have seen similar things with computer hardware, where stock in Brazil is suddenly more attractively priced for me than the same thing that I would consider bringing back from the US or UK. The only thing that bothers me is that this will be a short-lived thing. Fairly soon, stock held in Brazil will be exhausted, and the new pricing here will reflect the new exchange rate – of course, some resellers have already put the price on their existing stock up to cash-in…[/QUOTE]

    I’ve had the same thought and am dreading the day! Imagine what the real inflation will be like as this starts to happen.
  • #276496

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    My prediction, based only on a feeling in my water,is that the Real/Dollar will kiss 4.00 or slightly above before it all comes toits senses and settles back to a more realistic value figure in early 2016.

    Brazil’s repayments on its dollar debts must surely be painful at present andpossibly unsustainable should this unrealistic exchange rate continue very muchlonger.
    Folks, make hay while the sun on this financial advantage is shining sobrightly – everything is as cheap as chips when using foreign currency.
  • #276505

    Finrudd
    Participant

    GBP is also at an all time high against BRL Рor at least as long as XE has data for, so I am thinking of bringing some £££ in before the end of the year, but like Espirit, I think the Real has some space to fall a little further yet.

  • #276506

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=finrudd]GBP is also at an all time high against BRL Рor at least as long as XE has data for, so I am thinking of bringing some £££ in before the end of the year, but like Espirit, I think the Real has some space to fall a little further yet.[/QUOTE]

    Notquite at an all-time high finrudd. I understand that, back in late 2002, GBP/Realwas 6.28 whereas today it’s 5.25 – so still a lot of wriggle room. The Real isthe currency trader’s roller coaster amusement ride and, while a Latin countryand therefore understandable, still no way to treat one of the top ten globaleconomies. Stern Smile

  • #276513

    Finrudd
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Esprit][QUOTE=finrudd]GBP is also at an all time high against BRL Рor at least as long as XE has data for, so I am thinking of bringing some £££ in before the end of the year, but like Espirit, I think the Real has some space to fall a little further yet.[/QUOTE]

    Notquite at an all-time high finrudd. I understand that, back in late 2002, GBP/Realwas 6.28 whereas today it’s 5.25 – so still a lot of wriggle room. The Real isthe currency trader’s roller coaster amusement ride and, while a Latin countryand therefore understandable, still no way to treat one of the top ten globaleconomies. Stern Smile

    [/QUOTE]

    That’s a good point – I thought I remembered it being over R$6 to the √Ǭ£1 one time when I was in Brazil on holiday when it devalued considerably over a period of days in my favour by some quite large amount, and I don’t remember why – could it have been when it de-pegged from the USD or something similar? I remember we were only taking cash out daily and what we needed for the day too. Other than XE.com is there somewhere that has more historical data on this?
  • #276514

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=finrudd][QUOTE=Esprit][QUOTE=finrudd]GBP is also at an all time high against BRL Рor at least as long as XE has data for, so I am thinking of bringing some £££ in before the end of the year, but like Espirit, I think the Real has some space to fall a little further yet.[/QUOTE]

    Notquite at an all-time high finrudd. I understand that, back in late 2002, GBP/Realwas 6.28 whereas today it’s 5.25 – so still a lot of wriggle room. The Real isthe currency trader’s roller coaster amusement ride and, while a Latin countryand therefore understandable, still no way to treat one of the top ten globaleconomies. Stern Smile

    [/QUOTE]

    That’s a good point – I thought I remembered it being over R$6 to the √Ǭ£1 one time when I was in Brazil on holiday when it devalued considerably over a period of days in my favour by some quite large amount, and I don’t remember why – could it have been when it de-pegged from the USD or something similar? I remember we were only taking cash out daily and what we needed for the day too. Other than XE.com is there somewhere that has more historical data on this?

    [/QUOTE]

    Iremember traveling in Brazil back in the very early 90’s during a period ofhyperinflation while having a fist full of dollars and changing some of them ona daily basis at gas stations or anywhere else other than a bank in exchange forCruzeiros. I seem to recall that the old cruzeiro paper money was still incirculation but had been ink-stamped to indicate that its value had lost a fewzeros. There were no coins during that period and instead candies were used intheir place. To my embarrassment I remember waiting in one minute silent stand-offat the checkout in a supermarket; I was waiting for change while the checkoutlady was waiting for me to give her more money. I’d given her one of thosenotes that had been massively devalued!

    Soonafter the Real was created on parity with the dollar at a 1:1 ratio. Althoughnever actually pegged, the Dollar at one time was valued less than one Real –95 centavos! The Brazilian capacity for financial incompetence exceeds the illusionaryskills of David Copperfield and is as timelessly quirky as Mr Bean – a pinballmachine is more predictable.

    So,at the moment we have a range of issues that continue to affect the exchangerate: A slowdown in the commodity market caused by a slowdown in China. Thenthere’s the risk of a credit-rating downgrade to junk sending investors sellingand scurrying off. And of course one cannot fail to mention the recession,corruption, graft, police searching politician’s homes and the air of internationalconfidence sapping hapless scandal everywhere; caught, red-handed!

    Asidefrom those issues we have the chaos of global financial manipulation by centralbanks in a salad of money printing and contrived interest rates to combine and causethe resultant dysfunctional markets. These are indeed precarious timescomparable to being locked in room with a monkey playing with a live grenade.

    Youcould try this site for exchange rate observations: http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcAmt=1.00&srcCurr=GBP&destAmt=&destCurr=BRL

  • #276525

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=finrudd]Other than XE.com is there somewhere that has more historical data on this?[/QUOTE]
    This site not only has historical data on the forex, but also every other possible economic indicator you can think of: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/indicators
    The high for the USD was 3.95 in Oct 2002 (due to the ‘red scare’ the electronic herd had regarding Lula). The cruzeiro was before my time, so not sure what the highest rate was in those days.
    It’s ironic I think, the ‘economic miracle’ the PT claims to have created for the working class, also provided, at the start, a great economic opportunity for the gringo with foreign cash on hand. Perhaps with the end of the PT at hand, a similar ‘jackpot’ might be hit before the end of this year?
    Yet for now, no complaints from me, earning +13% on a simple CD! Friends and family back on The Fazenda are incredulous, when the best they can do is maybe 0.45% Confused

  • #276528

    Finrudd
    Participant

    Yes – that 13% return is mighty attractive, even when factoring in inflation. The question is IF it is worth the risk of bringing extra funds in when it looks like the exchange rate is peaking or not – of course, that consideration for those of us here for the long haul..

  • #276531

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Too expensive to take money out, I’m not bringing in any money unless I’m planning on spending it. If you want to take it back to the US there is just too much risk in my mind.

  • #276533

    celso
    Member

    13% is a poopy retorno as real drops 40% year after year. An old Brazilian I know told me he lost all investment money in local banks. The only thing that paid the bills was his 100 room hotel .

  • #276536

    Serrano
    Participant

    The saying, “Don’t keep all your eggs in one basket” comes to mind…. Wink

  • #276563

    S Bibb
    Participant

    HSBC to Sell Brazil Business to Banco Bradesco for $5.2 Billion

    LONDON√¢‚Ǩ‚Äù HSBC HoldingsPLC retreated back to its Asian roots Monday with an agreement to sell its Brazilian business for $5.2 billion, in the latest dismantling of HSBC’s former ambition to be “the world’s local bank.”

    HSBC said it has entered an all-cash deal to sell the Brazilian unit to Banco BradescoSA,leaving it with a rump Mexican business in the region that will increasingly be focused around North American trade. The bank in a June strategy update said it would pivot its business back to Asia, where its Hongkong and Shanghai Bank has been operating for 150 years.

    wall street journal

  • #276574

    Gieke
    Participant

    wow !

    3,78 R$ for one Euro….
    that’s a record
    Gieke
  • #276585

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Of course, Brazil is notentirely alone while suffering near catastrophic falls in the value of their currencies- as exampled by Australia and Canada falling nine and seven percentage points respectivelycompared to Brazil’s 12.4% during previous months [and yet more in Brazil’scase during the previous year]. Countries having a heavy dependency on commodityexport have enjoyed supplying China’s recent growth spurt but now that party isalmost over.

    This new mantra ofglobalisation, preached by the multinational corporations and their puppetpoliticians, has funded deflation in all things consumable providing low pricedgoods at the cost of cheap labour and, in particular, enormous profit to China.Now all that is about to bite the West and its lackeys in the butt. China has meanwhilebuilt its empty cities and highways together with other importantinfrastructure projects in preparedness for its kick-ass future and laudable aspiration√¢‚Ǩ‚Äú world dominance. “Beware the yellow peril.” There’s an economic argument thatfavours Chinese capitalistic communism over Brazil’s communistic democracy. Bothsystems grind subdivisions of populations into the ground and so the importantquestion is, who’s system is actually winning and is there a workablealternative?

  • #276587

    graham
    Participant

    Yes.

    Commoditydependent economies are in for a rough ride; one which adds to a globalslowdown√¢‚Ǩ¬¶could it be called a laborious worldly recalibration? Can a portugues speaker pronounce all those “L’s”? With China et al, thegrowing weariness with mass consumables has a global domino effect. Followingthe commodity bubble, Brasil still has a potential strength which manycountries do not possess: agroindustry. This sector remains relatively strong,as long as the government doesn’t manage to somehow screw this up too. Humanityis reaching the point where active management of the earth’s ecosystems willrequire ever stricter management. Big potential n the hands of Brasil√¢‚Ǩ¬¶?

    What systemof government? Dictators or depots? Theocracy or tyranny? Socialism or kleptocracy?Communisum or democracy…etc? Banana republic is, unfortunately, still anaccurate adjective for Brasil.As longas countries require a singular government, I guess I would choose democracy,though the electorate tends to elect idiots through increasingly necessarymedia sound bytes.

    Today, worldsystems are at the whims of a powerful few. Such complexity boggles my mind andmakes it soft. I think it is simply for us all to seek a peaceful and secure place to enjoy life. good luck.

  • #276597

    Serrano
    Participant

    The channel Futura had aninteresting show the other night that focused on the ills presently being experiencedby Brasil due to the high dollar foreign exchange rate. I repeatedlykept hearing “o dolar’, “o dolar”, “o dolar americano”…. The emphasis wasexplicitly on what the USD forex is doing to the Real, thus to Brasil(and the Brasilian economy)! I can easily imagine this dialog morphing into “o americano….”

    So beware gringos, especially all whoare prole of Tio Sam, for not if, but whenthe dayarrives that the U$(petro)Dollar no longer retains it’s status as theglobal preferred medium of exchange, and is blamed for the massivewoes experienced by other countries for their economic calamities(including Brasil), you/me/we could easily become scapegoats, targetseven, of the people’s ire, simply because of our citizenry based onwhere we were born (which I had no say in the matter… did you?)!

    The latest issue of Veja has three scenarios as to what will occur in the economy here. The exchange rate for each scenario….
    Scenario One: end of theyear cambio (USD) = 4.50
    Scenario Two: end ofthe year cambio (USD) = 3.70
    Scenario Three:end ofthe year cambio (USD) = 3.30

    (average: 3.83)

  • #276598

    jeb2886
    Member

    Comparing 2002’s Real to today’s Real value isn’t really fair at all.

    You need to really put in inflation in there. What did your Rio apartment cost in 2002, versus today? How about the apartments in the US compared with today?
    The 5:1 back in 2002 would probably be like 12:1 or 20:1 today! There is PLENTY of potential for things to get much worse here.
    We’ve only seen the USD getting stronger and commodities getting weaker and thus forcing the real down, we haven’t seen anything about Brazil’s economic woe’s factored in yet.
    I suspect Brazil will stop importing a lot of goods naturally as the Real goes higher, but there are a lot of rich people here who will not forego losing their imports! The cheap chinese crap of course will be cut out, but what about large LCD tv’s and other electronics? It’s hard to say how far the rich are going to be willing to go before they cut back. That will rebalance the Real with Brazil’s trading partners.
    3.49 today!
  • #276600

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]
    The channel Futura had aninteresting show the other night that focused on the ills presently being experiencedby Brasil due to the high dollar foreign exchange rate. I repeatedlykept hearing “o dolar’, “o dolar”, “o dolar americano”…. The emphasis wasexplicitly on what the USD forex is doing to the Real, thus to Brasil(and the Brasilian economy)! I can easily imagine this dialog morphing into “o americano….”

    So beware gringos, especially all whoare prole of Tio Sam, for not if, but whenthe dayarrives that the U$(petro)Dollar no longer retains it’s status as theglobal preferred medium of exchange, and is blamed for the massivewoes experienced by other countries for their economic calamities(including Brasil), you/me/we could easily become scapegoats, targetseven, of the people’s ire, simply because of our citizenry based onwhere we were born (which I had no say in the matter… did you?)!

    The latest issue of Veja has three scenarios as to what will occur in the economy here. The exchange rate for each scenario….
    Scenario One: end of theyear cambio (USD) = 4.50
    Scenario Two: end ofthe year cambio (USD) = 3.70
    Scenario Three:end ofthe year cambio (USD) = 3.30

    (average: 3.83)

    [/QUOTE]
    We can always say “eh” at the end of our sentences and say we are Canadian! LOL

  • #276604

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Grads] …Followingthe commodity bubble, Brasil still has a potential strength which manycountries do not possess: agroindustry. This sector remains relatively strong,as long as the government doesn’t manage to somehow screw this up too. Humanityis reaching the point where active management of the earth’s ecosystems willrequire ever stricter management. Big potential n the hands of Brasil√¢‚Ǩ¬¶?
    [/QUOTE]

    Seriously, you’re actuallystarving; you haven’t eaten for days and today you’re given a choice: A tunasandwich or 15 minutes with a sweet smelling, freshly showered Halle Berry whois aching for you. [Don’t be silly, you’re starving, remember?]

    They, whoever √¢‚ǨÀúthey’ are,say that when deprived of food we are but five meals away from total anarchy andthe jungle; we would fight/kill for food and survival; a sobering thought.

    The whole on Latin Americahas an enviable potential in this regard – food production. South America has30% of the world’s fresh water and over 40% of the world’s spare agricultural capacity.

    Halle Berry may well sulk atyour choice and afterward reject your fishy breath but at least you’re aliveand able to set your sights on something more realistic. Halle Berry aching foryou? Get real!

  • #276607

    Serrano
    Participant

    And now, here’s the flip side of thecoin Finrudd and I were chatting about the other day, that ‘deposit’earning +13%…. Food for thought (guaranteed to give you cerebralindigestion!)
    MONEY CONFISCATION LEGAL?

    I knew all about the fractional bankingponzi scheme (worrisome enough), but does this same mafioso scambanks practice in the US and UK, mentioned in the video regardingaccount holders being mere unsecured creditors, apply also toBrasilian banks?!? Probably so. Be it HSBC, Bradesco, or any other bank, it mattersnot. TEOTWAWKI, here we come! Grab your ankles, bend over (that’sthe pornographic version of ‘duck and cover’)…. Cry

  • #276610

    jeb2886
    Member

    A reserve currency needs something very important. Debt.

    What country would you trust, where the government holds the debt?
    If a country is broken down into 2 parties, me and you. And then a 3rd person wants to hold our currency, there is one thing that must happen. Debt.
    If I sell you a $5 gizmo. I have $5, and you have $5 debt.
    For you to get out of debt, you must sell me something for $5, at which point we’re back to break even.
    If a 3rd party wants to get our currency, they need something very important — debt.
    If I sell you a $5 gizmo. I have $5, and you have a $5 debt.
    3rd party wants some of your currency, so he can get the $5 from you, but he must sell ME something first.
    Now 3rd party holds $5.
    I have $0 (sold $5, bought $5)
    You have $5 debt
    A reserve currency needs debt. Who do you trust, with a long history of a stable and solid government, that has shown you will actually get your money back, at some point in time.
  • #276611

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]A reserve currency needs something very important. Debt.

    What country would you trust, where the government holds the debt?
    If a country is broken down into 2 parties, me and you. And then a 3rd person wants to hold our currency, there is one thing that must happen. Debt.
    If I sell you a $5 gizmo. I have $5, and you have $5 debt.
    For you to get out of debt, you must sell me something for $5, at which point we’re back to break even.
    If a 3rd party wants to get our currency, they need something very important — debt.
    If I sell you a $5 gizmo. I have $5, and you have a $5 debt.
    3rd party wants some of your currency, so he can get the $5 from you, but he must sell ME something first.
    Now 3rd party holds $5.
    I have $0 (sold $5, bought $5)
    You have $5 debt
    A reserve currency needs debt. Who do you trust, with a long history of a stable and solid government, that has shown you will actually get your money back, at some point in time.

    [/QUOTE]

    They walk among us…

  • #276683

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Esprit]Seriously, you’re actuallystarving; you haven’t eaten for days and today you’re given a choice: A tunasandwich or 15 minutes with a sweet smelling, freshly showered Halle Berry whois aching for you. [Don’t be silly, you’re starving, remember?]

    They, whoever √¢‚ǨÀúthey’ are,say that when deprived of food we are but five meals away from total anarchy andthe jungle; we would fight/kill for food and survival; a sobering thought.

    The whole on Latin Americahas an enviable potential in this regard – food production. South America has30% of the world’s fresh water and over 40% of the world’s spare agricultural capacity.[/QUOTE]

    Photo below is from some excavation being done on my sitio. The coffee brown layer of soil, about 1m in depth, is fertile, rich topsoil. The pampas in Argentina supposedly has 2m of topsoil. The US has but a few inches. Russia (mainly Siberia), is supposed to have incredibly deep topsoil as well. But obviously there, the growing season is quite short. Brasil… in the long run, in spite of the frustrations, a very good place to be!

  • #276689

    Anonymous

    Damn, that’s beautiful!!

  • #276795

    chrish
    Member

    China devalued the Yuan overnight. Looks like we’re in for another round of currency wars, it is possible that quantitative easing 4 is on it’s way and therefore the Real would go back up.

  • #276816

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Can’t post today – something wrong with the site.

    I keep on getting this message: Server Error in Forum Application
    An error has occurred while writing to the database.
    Please contact the Forum Administrator.

    Support Error Code:- err_SQLServer_save_new_post_data
    File Name:- new_post.asp
    Forum Version:- 10.15

    Esprit2015-08-12 10:13:17

  • #276826

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    I can’t report my own post to Steel Rat. Someone?

  • #276829

    Sid
    Participant

    reported

  • #276832

    sahara
    Member

    Is this completely new posts, replies, or both?

  • #276833

    Anonymous

    several of us have been having problems. In my case, it has been with replies,

  • #276839

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    [QUOTE=marcobjj] China devalued the Yuan overnight. Looks like we’re in for another round of currency wars, it is possible that quantitative easing 4 is on it’s way and therefore the Real would go back up.[/QUOTE]
    The fuel surcharge up here in the us west coast just went down today and that may means the dollar might be entering a ‘deflactionary period” –

  • #276841

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=SteelRat]Is this completely new posts, replies, or both?[/QUOTE]

    In my case, this morning, it was a new post.
  • #276844

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    It’s still doing it.Esprit2015-08-12 15:46:38

  • #276849

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Part of one message reads: Could not allocate space for object ‘dbo.tblThread’.’PK_tblThread’ indatabase ‘gringoes’ because the ‘PRIMARY’ filegroup is full.

  • #276850

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Microsoft OLE DBProvider for SQL Server error ‘80004005’

  • #276852

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    It won’t allow much more than one line in a post.

  • #276853

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    “Create disk space by deleting unneeded files, dropping objects in thefilegroup, adding additional files to the filegroup, or setting autogrowth onfor existing files in the filegroup.”

  • #276854

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit] Can’t post today – something wrong with the site.

    Esprit and Gringo Serrano, hmmmm do your posts have anything to do with politics and the economy including deceit and corruption ?
    Putting joking aside, hope it gets fixed soon.
  • #276856

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    I wonder how many members have been affected by this glitch?

  • #276857

    celso
    Member

    The weak Real is starting to help Brazilain industry. Valores sees Real 4.0 to dollar soon. This will help create jobs…
    I have noticed a few glitches when attempting to open this web site forum over the last few days.

  • #276864

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Esprit]I wonder how many members have been affected by this glitch?[/QUOTE]
    +1 here….

  • #276929

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Site is still not working properly…Disapprove

  • #276959

    jeb2886
    Member

    We could probably free up space by deleting our PM’s 🙂 One liners work, because there are very small holes in his database where misc items get deleted and that get reused by one liners, but larger messages need new space, which he is out of.

  • #276964

    Anonymous

    Exactly. Either mySQL is out of memory or server is out of diskspace. Most likely it is the latter.

  • #276968

    Finrudd
    Participant

    I purged my inbox just in case!

  • #276970

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Given that, a 300-pagenovel only needs about a megabyte; I very much doubt that purging your inboxwould help very much. Memory is cheap these days and so I imagine that the sitecapacity simply needs clearing or, better, updating with more memory capacity. Assumingof course that the owner considers the forum to be worthwhile further investmentthese days.

  • #277023

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Indications are that the Real has been oversold and is nowcontent to sit below a dollar resistance ceiling of 3.50. A rate range of between 3.20 to this ceiling islikely to continue given the weekend’s tepid protests by the √¢‚ǨÀúblue-eyed’demographic that did nothing to frighten the horses or dull investor confidence. The true testfor the currency will depend on future government spending reductions that may staveoff a credit rating downgrade.

  • #277133

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    All bets are off now that China has fallen into the crapper – women and children first…

  • #277195

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Esprit, it happened again, I got your post yesterday via email (can’t see the picture though) but nothing posted on the forum.
    In the meantime, the fx is at 3.60 today … Insane! China is working hard to put their affairs in order … Which might just compell Brazil to keep their currency down.

  • #277304

    Serrano
    Participant

    Perhaps to be of interest: Beijing Just Buried it’s Fangs into the US Dollar Standard
    And today… USD:BRL=3.6288! I think Jack-O-Lantern will beat Papai Noel, with bringing 4.0
    Get ’em, trade ’em, while they’re hot!!!

  • #277318

    miguel
    Participant

    With this desgovernounable to balance its accounts and sending a budget to the congress with a primary fiscal deficit, a sovereign downgrade is no longer an ‘uncertainty.’ With this so helpfully cleared up, the markets have finally begun to price that in.miguel2015-08-31 18:49:51

  • #277322

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=miguel] With this desgovernounable to balance its accounts and sending a budget to the congress with a primary fiscal deficit, a sovereign downgrade is no longer an ‘uncertainty.’ √Ǭ†√Ǭ†<span style=”line-height: 1.4;”>With this so helpfully cleared up, the markets have finally begun to price that in.</span>[/QUOTE]
    And as Brazil slides into a civil war based on skin colour and nice cars, houses, God help us!GreatBallsoFire2015-08-31 22:39:27

  • #277324

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Yes, we all should be concerned about thecredit agencies and their opinions about the rating for Brazilian sovereign debt.After all, those agencies were bang-on correct about the subprime derivativeswhen they awarded the coveted AAA standard to the biggest heap of steamingexcrement extruded thus far in the 21stcentury. Again, no one goesto jail and yet we still believe.

  • #277350

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Touched 3.75 a few minutes ago, 3.73 right now, not that far from 4

  • #277359

    jeb2886
    Member

    What is really impressive is how strongly it has been moving upwards, there really hasn’t been any pull back each day, it’s just a 1-2% loss per day, with basically a straight line!

  • #277371

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    We are not alone in this currency massacre:The Canadian dollar is down 17% against the almighty USD as is the Australiandollar some 24% in this slide and so is New Zealand 23% in the same hole.All the commodity currencies are being royally screwed although none issuffering as much as the inept Brazilian predicament that insists on screwingitself into a corrupt hole.

  • #277374

    jeb2886
    Member

    In the last 3 months, USDCAD lost 5.8%, while the USDBRL lost 20.36%

    When oil crumbled, USDCAD and USDBRL were pretty much following similar losses, this is all Brazils doing from here on out I believe…
  • #277379

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    The market is lacking sense and logic. less media or reports bs and more watching comes to mind
    Watch the consumer spending – not good at all, the masses are broke and for that sure China economy is slowing down. the dollar is high as countries are known to play currency wars and Brazil is one of them, adding their issues on top, anything it’s possible at this point to easily go up to 4.00 by end of Sept.

  • #277380

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=FanC]The market is lacking sense and logic. [/QUOTE]
    When has the market ever been defined by “sense and logic”?!?
    The pounding global currencies are experiencing by the USD will only result in (deeper) bitterness, and you can be sure to see an increase of some countries following China and Russia’s lead, and commence with deals using their own currencies, bypassing the USD. Global resentment for the unwieldy power of the petro-dollar will eventually result in some sort of backlash. Be that sooner, or later, is anyone’s guess, but it’s coming….

  • #277382

    Serrano
    Participant

    And now back to the ‘world’s local (most hated) bank’…. Had a message from HSBC last month that the $2,950 daily limit for transfers into Brasil via Global View was being increased to $10,000. Hmmm???
    Decided today to take advantage of that. Previously, the rate via GV would be 8-9 cents less than the current rate posted for that day. Now, they want to give you a rate 15 cents less! So therein lies the reason for the increase in the daily limit. Scoundrels!!! Angry

  • #277392

    Serrano
    Participant


    QE4 and Dow at 25,000
    EDIT: And now it begins… Russia is Going to Pass a Law Formally Dumping the USD!
    Gringo.Serrano2015-09-03 18:49:07

  • #277393

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano] [QUOTE=FanC]The market is lacking sense and logic. [/QUOTE]
    When has the market ever been defined by “sense and logic”?!?
    The pounding global currencies are experiencing by the USD will only result in (deeper) bitterness, and you can be sure to see an increase of some countries following China and Russia’s lead, and commence with deals using their own currencies, bypassing the USD.√Ǭ† Global resentment for the unwieldy power of the petro-dollar will eventually result in some sort of backlash.√Ǭ† Be that sooner, or later, is anyone’s guess, but it’s coming….
    [/QUOTE]
    No way. China wants a good relationship with the USA.

  • #277400

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Right G.Serrano, since men learned to manipulate things…. that was the end of it. √Ǭ†√Ǭ† √Ǭ†
    The road is being paved for changes and the question is when they’ll be implemented√Ǭ† “when the time is right”, hmmm.√Ǭ†
    At this point and time, after seeing what, say “humans” can do (a few things pretty much in your face) specially in the last 3 years, I wouldn’t be surprise if we’ll be forced to switch to a “paperless” monetary system- digital money, electronic money or virtual currency – a lot of talk already and many terms to choose from, according to my google search :o)√Ǭ† just saying.√Ǭ†

  • #277401

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Sure China wants a good relationship, they have to protect their assets and secure their exports

  • #277402

    jeb2886
    Member

    It wasn’t 8-9 cents less, it was % less, and today it’s 15 cents because it’s a % less. In fact, you’re probably getting a better deal today, 15 cents on 3.75 is better than 8 cents on 1.60

  • #277403

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Sure China wants a good relationship, they have to protect their assets and secure their exports

  • #277411

    Serrano
    Participant

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]It wasn’t 8-9 cents less, it was % less, and today it’s 15 cents because it’s a % less. In fact, you’re probably getting a better deal today, 15 cents on 3.75 is better than 8 cents on 1.60[/QUOTE]
    The way the HSBC Global Transfer thing works is you select the countries you want to transfer from/to. Then you select the currency to convert (accounts in Singapore and HK can be comprised of more than the national currency). Once all the fields are filled in and you click Next, you are presented a transaction ticket, which shows you the rate the exchange will be performed at. [pt1]

  • #277412

    Serrano
    Participant

    [pt2] Yesterday, with the rate published at 3.74, HSBC wanted to perform the exchange at 3.59! That’s 15 cents (centavos) less, per dollar, not percentage.
    But yes, with the forex in the 3.0’s, that 15 centavos equals +/- a nickel taken from every dollar, so 5% less….

  • #277414

    Serrano
    Participant

    Regarding the comments about China…. Gentlemen, China wants but one thing: to dump the Treasury toilet paper (US debt) they were conned into taking! They couldn’t just up and do that, without starting some sort of economic war, or even a real war. But now, they have the most excellent excuse of needing to support their melting stock market and devaluation of their currency. Read the news gentlemen (aside from the mainstream crap). Russia and China, two Big Dawgs, are maneuvering away from the USD. [pt1]

  • #277415

    Serrano
    Participant

    [pt2] The little Ceasars Sadam Hussein and Gaddafi tried to circumvent the USD, and got shot down by the biggest baddest military machine on the planet. Yet Tio doesn’t dare try ‘shock and awe’ with China and/or Russia (which would have Iran on their sides too), unless he’s stupid enough to want to annilhate a large segment of the human race. Sadly, history shows us politicians can be exactly this stupid….

  • #277417

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    I’d hesitate to describe Russia as a “bigdawg” in the context of its GDP given that it’s a tad smaller than that ofBrazil. However in the context of bluff & bluster it’s loudest barking dogon the block made more so by the self-interest of US arms industry since 1945together with novel writers and movie directors enjoying the cold war profits. Ifhowever that mad bitch mother Russia decides to boycott the US dollar I’m allin favour.

  • #277419

    Serrano
    Participant

    I mean ‘big dawg’ in terms of having sufficient MAD-WMDs to counter what’s buried in silos under the corn and wheat fields of Kansas, Nebraska, etc. Big Dawg too in terms of oil and gas deposits. Big Dawg (as well as China), in terms of amassing huge quantities of gold bullion, this year especially being quite a shopping spree for both the Bear and Dragon.
    What are they preparing for…?! Shocked

  • #277422

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Unlike the imbecile running North Korea Iwouldn’t countenance the notion that either China or Russia would entertain theidea of what most consider would be a mutually destructive nuclear war scenariowith the US. However, in that hopefully unlikely event, China I’m certain wouldbe the last man standing because of the sheer survival statistics of itscitizens outnumbering the US as they do by several hundred percent. No, ridding the world of the blight influence of the almightydollar may well return rationality to the imbalance within global currenciesand equilibrium in the human condition.

  • #277429

    it is interesting the bitterness from some US born folks who apparently have nothing better to do than bitch about their tiny problems. i may be mistaken but serrano lives a pretty nice life on the island of floripa and the other dude likes to play amateur online poet and philosopher without much fan fair.

  • #277432

    Anonymous

    Disagree on both counts. GS lives in the mountains now, and “the other dude” is my daily hero.

  • #277433

    ffm
    Member

    [QUOTE=picolino]Disagree on both counts. GS lives in the mountains now, and “the other dude” is my daily hero.
    [/QUOTE]
    LOL
    Well, I bet GS STILL lives a good life! So he got us there.

  • #277445

    Serrano
    Participant

    Life is good, but far from perfect here in ‘Twin Peaks’. The people are strange!

  • #277473

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    And so the dollar continues its inexorable climb as itapproaches its giddy highs of a tad over r$4.00 back in 2002. Pausing forbreath on this holiday it rests at r$3.84 and smirks at what used to be my nowmuch reduced paper wealth palace.

    “Father, why haste thou forsaken me?”

    “Easy come, easy go, son√¢‚Ǩ¬¶it ain’t over yet but remember√¢‚Ǩ¬¶there’salways Easter.”

  • #277474

    graham
    Participant

    patience and enjoy well being. carpe diem. buoy your hope on a mega; it is a miracle that any of us are here anyway.Grads2015-09-07 18:02:15

  • #277475

    jeb2886
    Member

    I don’t know how others feel about the costs of Brazilian made goods versus imports, but to me, it’s looking like Brazilian made goods are becoming very competitive versus buying and bringing back into the country.

    As imports slow down, the currency should stabilize.
  • #277482

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Grads]patience and enjoy well being. carpe diem. buoy your hope on a mega; it is a miracle that any of us are here anyway.[/QUOTE]

    A timely reminder from Grads that men have sought thatwhich is forbidden knowledge; our destiny in all things and in this case thetrivia of exchange rates. Our ancestors advised against Babylonian soothsayers,who like today’s central bankers, predict in vain. Reality is in each moment oftime, which, if it were fruit, should be plucked, ripe from the vine of ourlives. What we do today shapes our tomorrows √¢‚Ǩ‚Äú have a nice one.

  • #277507

    a6abeGGkz-0
    Member

    Right JKennedy but the market doesn’t run by logic or sense anymore. There are too many factors going on and some ‘behind doors’ who really knows…
    Grads comments, indeed we are lucky we made it this far …
    G. Serrano comments, they might be preparing for anything …
    The bottom line and the point of our chats – if China & Russia decides to dump the dollar, the dollar will depreciate. as mentioned by g. Serrano, they’ve been buying gold and the media omitted that the’ve been replacing the dollar at the same time! My retirement plan (and the cash in the cookie jar) will be worth only half its value

  • #277510

    celso
    Member

    The dollar is on a roll for many reasons.
    The BNDS and Pertobras can easily send the Real does to 8.0 to the dollar because both have hundreds of billions of dollar debt that is a powder keg about the go off. The Brazilian way is to print money to pay way out.They did it before and are doing it again.GreatBallsoFire2015-09-09 00:08:45

  • #277512

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]The dollar is on a roll for many reasons.
    The BNDS and Pertobras can easily send the Real does to 8.0 to the dollar because both have hundreds of billions of dollar debt that is a powder keg about the go off. The Brazilian way is to print money to pay way out.They did it before and are doing it again.[/QUOTE]

    I totally agree with you GBF
    We will probably be seeing those mind boggling inflation numbers before too long.
    I am keeping all my money outside of Brazil, you never know what to expect from these thieves that run this country.
  • #277513

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Whilst it’s true thatthere is a great deal of external dollar debt, Brazil√¢‚ǨÀús dollar reserves areknown and recorded. Of course, unlike the US where dollars are printed withimpunity in toilet tissue factories, Brazil cannot print dollars. A form ofquantitative easing within the Real domain used to buy government debt is apossibility however the required yield may be up to 15% in the currentfinancial climate. Relax, currency, like water, will find its own level whenthe traders untangle their panties.

  • #277514

    jeb2886
    Member

    GBF, those companies don’t account for much in terms of dollar transactions. It’s people who are buying up LCD screens made in japan, or imported cars or other expensive items.

    What is really sad is that this is going to create even greater inequality. The poor will see generally larger inflation numbers, but as someone said here before, they saw a 21% increase over the last year versus 8% the general public saw. That is going to grow, and their income/expenses will track it, making their incomes FAR larger, while the poor will just track the 8%+ numbers. While the rich might feel a lot of pain buying those luxury items, when we exit this, they will have left the poor in the dust.
  • #28134

    lynchem
    Member

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