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Exchange Rate Predictions 2015 (part II)

Home Forums Investing in Brazil Exchange Rate Predictions 2015 (part II)

This topic contains 24 replies, has 11 voices, and was last updated by  Quemsabenada 1 year, 11 months ago.

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  • #5877

    Serrano
    Participant

    Originally created by forum member Richard V, revived by that pesky Gringo.Floripa guy, then continued by Leblon…. Per the wishes and instructions of the forum management to no longer post on the original gringoes site, but to migrate all chatter here, it’s my pleasure and honor to restart this popular thread.

    One of the principal contributors to this topic, Esprit, who possesses keen insight (as well as acerbic wit) into all matters relating to investing and the financial world, is presently on holiday across the pond with ‘she who must be obeyed’. Keep away from any immigrant demonstrations Esprit, and return to the land of Order and Chaos safely please!

    So with the USD:BRL exchange rate presently at the all time high experienced back in 2002, it’s anyone’s guess how much higher it will go. Talk of impeaching Dilma (serious talk), an economy now in a definite recession (a possible depression forecast for 2016), scandal involving some of the largest Brasilian corporations, as well as general theft by the corrupt PT, do not bode well for The Real! Vamos ver….

  • #5878

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    How soon till we are at 5?

  • #5879

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    And now we have arrived at 3.85/ USD and it looks to only be going higher. I am paid in BRL and my salary doubled from 2013 though my net salary converted to USD is almost the same as it was in 2013! There are so many things going on which makes me think about going back to the US but there is more that keeps me here.

    Now, a ban of cloned animal and cloned animal products including meat and milk in Europe threatens to impose more regulation and cost on the beef industry here in Brazil. With all that is going on in the world, to ban the importation of products from at most 100 animals of the more that 220 million, is insane.

    -Marc

  • #5992

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    3.92 and worsening

  • #5994

    Serrano
    Participant

    I just checked, and saw it at 3.95!

    Jack O. Lantern will definitely be bringing 4.0 (trick OR treat?), if not before! Talk of 5.0 seemed absurd several months ago, but wth virtually all forecasts predicting economic conditions being far worse in 2016, then maybe 5.0 is realistic. But then too comes much higher inflation….

  • #5995

    Patrick Kennedy
    Participant

    I think we’re probably reaching a top right now. Mostly because we’re able to buy things here cheaper than buying them in say the US tax free.

    Although it’s hard to say how many investors are trying to flee, and how much the government is going to be willing to inject money in to keep things stable.

    But yeah, inequality was bad before, it’s going to go through the roof now. Real middle class people will still be able to buy appliances, tvs, smart phones. They might feel the pinch, but that “new” middle class is going to be forced out because their wages are likely not going to be following inflation…

  • #6002

    3cervejas
    Participant

    3.99? epa!

  • #6003

    Serrano
    Participant
  • #6004

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    And we have an all time record 4.03

  • #6006

    agri2001
    Participant

    Make that 4.05

  • #6011

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    4.12 and fading

  • #6013

    Bobby
    Participant

    4.17 and going higher!

  • #6014

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    4.18 earlier today. It just rocketed past all the previous projected leveling off points. Value is just flying out the window! And no one knows where this will end up but one thing is clear. If you want to bring in USD for BRL, now really is the time.

    -Marc

  • #6015

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Almost touched 4.25 before dropping back down to 4.18, you wonder when it will stop. I am not even thinking about bringing money until it stabilizes a bit, who is to say it can’t get worse. Rather miss the upside than catch the falling knife.

  • #6016

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    This trend in the value of the real in comparison to the USD seems to have gained a sustained downward momentum. The charts for the last 3 months show a nearly level decline. Perhaps this is the correctiion so long overdue or is in response to the multiple financial scandels or the credit downgrade… or all put together. Regardless, there is no good news coming from the PT camp as far as I can see here, they cannot tax themselves out of this one but they are gonna try I think. I’m not sure where the continued slide into financial worthlessness will end but until there is any stability all people living in Brazil need to plan for the worst.

    The plus side is if you are providing goods or services outside Brazil, the USD goes so much further today.

    -Marc

  • #6017

    Finrudd
    Participant

    I have just heard that Banco Central has announced it is ‘doing something’ to bring it under control…this probably means selling some USD reserves they have to help control inflation? It sounds like there will be a correction when they do, but without a change to the economic fundamentals, how long will it be before it starts to creep back to where it is today?

  • #6018

    Gieke
    Participant

    can’t believe my eyes…
    looked at the ECB graphic (google ECB BRL)
    yesterday : 4,48 R$ for 1 euro
    today : 4,73 R$ for a euro
    a 25 centavos difference in a day !!!

    the real is picking up speed going down

    Guido

  • #6019

    Finrudd
    Participant

    big change against GBP today – up then down again:

    BRL” />

  • #6022

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Crazy swings on the dollar too, last 24 hours has been as high as 4.24 and as low as 3.88

  • #6023

    Marc Maserati
    Participant

    Now somewhat stable at ~4 per USD. And by stable meaning that it hasn’t changed much in the last couple hours!

    Looking at the stepwise increase in value against the USD, it looks like something was actually tuning this to be at 4. I do the same gentle adjust to get the best single to noise ratio when aglining lasers. Perhaps this was the adjustment spoken about above.

    -Marc

  • #6024

    agri2001
    Participant

    True value, according to Financial Times is $5.83 to the dollar.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/7041b478-637c-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.html#axzz3ms0lrU83

  • #6077

    Serrano
    Participant

    Hope all ‘the gang’ is doing well. Hang tight gringos, a patch of rough air ahead on the radar (as if you didn’t know this)!

    http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2015/12/1724425-capa-da-economist-preve-2016-desastroso-para-o-brasil-e-culpa-dilma.shtml

    Feliz Ano Novo!!!

  • #6078

    Gieke
    Participant

    thanks for the link, I also read the article and comments on the economist site.
    interesting and frightening…

    feliz ano novo !

    Guido

  • #6080

    Bligh
    Participant

    So, is someone going to start an “exchange rates 2016” thread and kick this forum back into life? I can’t cope with having these conversations on facebook, it’s doing my head in.

  • #6082

    Quemsabenada
    Participant

    Here are a couple of websites that show historical trends: http://usd.fxexchangerate.com/brl/, http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=BRL&view=1M, and http://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/. I have been tracking the USD?BRL rates for several years and believe that the BRL will stay steady around R$4.00 for a while unless the Central Bank receives negative instructions from Brasilia,

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