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  • #231257

    With the markets in Brasil closed today, and the markets in EUA operating on an abbreviated schedule, the year evidently concludes with a lackluster 2.04 exchange rate (USD).
    So forget the drum roll, the fanfare, and most certainly the fireworks. As for popping the champagne, esquece! The BRL:USD/EUR forex in 2012 can only be described as a huge yawn.
    What a boring year


    especially compared to a decade ago!


    We all know that history indeed repeats itself. But when?!?
    Yet while we’re waiting, on second thought, pour some champagne anyway
    FELIZ ANO NOVO Gringas e Gringos!!!

  • #231315

    Gilmour
    Member

    I know were’re going to hit 2,15, but I can’t say when.
    The one thing I can say for sure from looking at that top chart is that it’s still making higher-highs and lower-lows, so I’d only be looking for more upside potential. That’s probable. The problem is that we can never know “how much higher” can it go. People have many ways of trying to gauge this, but not of them are close to 100% accurate.
    Now look at your bottom chart and notice how from Dec/02 it was a lower-high and slightly lower low. We all know that from this point, the USD fell out of bed!

  • #231319

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    2002 was an election year. Lula’s first victory. It was the red scare until he brought on his Wall Street approved team from Bank of Boston …
    That’s why you see the 3.5 rate.

  • #231344

    With the ‘predicted’ one-minute-before-midnight vote in the US to NOT plunge over the fiscal cliff, I suppose we can expect more of the same boring plateau in the exchange rate, at least until something in Europe boils over.
    Yes, the Socialismoscare of Lula’s pending election was the result of 2002’s spike, but 2008 saw an increase by almost 100 points (1.56-2.46) in the forex when the markets melted down.
    For now, nothing to do but wait for the next ‘big event’….
    What I don’t understand is all this talk I keep hearing about Dilma’s gov’t wanting2.30-2.40, but BACEN keeps dumping dollars to keep the rate low?!?
    Gringo.Floripa2013-01-02 18:43:10

  • #231383

    agri2001
    Participant

    Happy New Year from, sunny and cold as a witches tit, Holland.
    Every time the dollar has made a move the Central Bank steps in and floods the market with billions of dollars.
    There seems to be a tug of war between Manteiga and Tombini, and so far Tombini is winning in order to keep inflation low??? He says that its at 5.5% on a annualized basis, but we all know that its almost double that.
    Manteiga keeps saying that Brazil needs a weaker real to help the exports but nobody is listening to him at the moment.
    So we have to wait and see.
    agri20012013-01-02 13:12:00

  • #231736

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]Sem artifícios contábeis, despesas primárias poderiam chegar a R$ 1 trilhão em 2012. Maquiagem preocupa investidores[/quote]
    It’s going downhill fast now.
    Manipulating numbers, investors scary ……..
    Argentina: “Eu sou Você amanha”
    US$ 1,00 = R$ 2,20 – R$ 2,50 – 2,xx……….
    Maquiagem de R$ 200 bilhões garante meta do governo
    (01 coconut = US$ 0,08 – 0,10 )

  • #231740

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    Watch out!
    “Brazil’s government plans to ease back on policies to weaken the currency and lower interest rates in 2013 as economic growth starts to recover after two years in the doldrums, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said in an interview.” – WSJ
    I read a very good article about this but was too busy to post a link and now it got away from me. Bottom line … the Real may strengthen here soon.

  • #231743

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=jacare] Watch out!”Brazil’s government plans to ease back on policies to weaken the currency and lower interest rates in 2013 as economic growth starts to recover after two years in the doldrums, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said in an interview.” – WSJI read a very good article about this but was too busy to post a link and now it got away from me. Bottom line … the Real may strengthen here soon.[/QUOTE]
    When Mr. Mantega says someting, amazingly, always the opposite will occur.
    No wonder The Economist suggested Dilma to sack him a few weeks ago.
    “But she insists she is pragmatic. If so, she should fire Mr Mantega, whose over-optimistic forecasts have lost investors confidence, and appoint a new team capable of regaining the trust of business”
    Economist
    The last thing you should rely on is Mr. Mantega or the government.

  • #231746

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]The last thing you should rely on is Mr. Mantega or the government.[/QUOTE]
    I guess we are destined to listen to spongebob and his predictions based on graphical analysis …

  • #231790

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jacare][QUOTE=oil&gas]The last thing you should rely on is Mr. Mantega or the government.[/QUOTE]
    I guess we are destined to listen to spongebob and his predictions based on graphical analysis …
    [/QUOTE]

    Don’tknock Bob‚Äôs predictions; he‚Äôs as good as a stopped clock ‚Äì accurate for half asecond twice a day! LOL

  • #231839

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]
    [QUOTE=jacare]
    [QUOTE=oil&gas]The last thing you should rely on is Mr. Mantega or the government.[/QUOTE]I guess we are destined to listen to spongebob and his predictions based on graphical analysis …[/QUOTE]

    <font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;’>Don’t
    knock Bob’s predictions; he’s as good as a stopped clock – accurate for half a
    second twice a day!<span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†LOL</span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†¬†</span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><?:namespace prefix = o ns = “urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office” /><o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>

    [/QUOTE]
    After seeing your comments (and Jacarés), I accessed my P&L and took a screenshot. I was about to post it here, but I said “Wait a minute.. this is a public forum.” (Sometimes it doesn’t feel that way though.) Plus, I don’t want to make you guys cry or give you the big eye.
    I’ll say this a million times, these long-range projections are like flipping a coin. If it were possible, everyone would be rich. I bet you knuckleheads can’t even remember the reasons why I said 2,15-2,16 is so important. 2,15 is not sooo far off. I think we even got to 2,10. It’s not like sitting at 1,50 saying “It’s going to 5,00!”
    By the way, don’t believe the politicians or news. How many times have I said that here? Lots.spongebob2013-01-06 21:21:39

  • #231851

    Gilmour
    Member

    If you guys like spending dollars, then you should go to Argentina. I’ve been reading that most high-ticket items are being paid for in US Dollars. The exchange rate now is 4,92 to 1 USD. Caraca.. when I came to Brazil, it was 3:1.

  • #231863

    celso
    Member

    The real is clearly going to 3.0. Brassers return with bulging suitcases yet Gringoes return with empty suitcases except for a few bottles of pinga. Also the Brazilian gov is corrupt as hell and playing with the books. Infation is much higher than what the gov states just like Cristina in Argentina.

  • #231867

    Gilmour
    Member

    ^ Ok, let me rephrase that: long-range predictions attached to a specific deadline are like flipping coins. I also think it will go to 3:1. The question is “when”.
    At the very least, inflation is at LEAST the level of minimum wage on many many things here. People here never seem to stop to analilyze the real purchasing power of a salário minimo. Best case scenario: it stays the same. Most probable case: it’s getting eroded every year.
    But I seriously doubt Globo would ever spell that out to the people. And most people are too lazy to even want to think about it.

  • #231880

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    At the very least, inflation is at LEAST the level of minimum wage on many many things here. People here never seem to stop to analilyze the real purchasing power of a salário minimo. Best case scenario: it stays the same. Most probable case: it’s getting eroded every year.[/QUOTE]
    Consider, in 1994, when the Real was issued as the new currency, the minimum wage was R$64,79 (monthly). The same year, in the US, the min wage was $4.25 (hourly). So assuming 40hrs per week, a monthlyincome of $680. It has only increased to it’s present level of $7.25 (same formula = $1,160 monthly). So roughly double of what it was 20 years ago. Yet in Brasil, it has risen from R$64,79 to what will soon be R$678,00! TEN times greater in the same time period!
    Definitely the ‘most probable case’, and IMO, inextricably linked to why the cost of living in Brasil has skyrocketed! The minimum wage is ten times more than it was almost 20 years ago, and things cost approx. ten times more than they did 20 years ago.
    As soon as an increase to the salário mínimo is announced, usually 2-3 months prior, EVERYONE, from the barber, to the butcher, to the candlestick-maker immediately raise their prices! It’s a total wash, yet it keeps the povo focused on the carrot dangling from the end of the stick.
    Gringo.Floripa2013-01-07 08:25:16

  • #231928

    tech-spec
    Member

    Run…Buy candles.
    The lights are going out.
    Punishment for the PT
    10 years blaming FHC for the so called ‘Apagão”.
    The situation seems worse than in 2001.
    This surely will affect also the US$ vs R$, the BOVESPA ………………………

  • #231941

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa][QUOTE=spongebob]
    At the very least, inflation is at LEAST the level of minimum wage on many many things here. People here never seem to stop to analilyze the real purchasing power of a salário minimo. Best case scenario: it stays the same. Most probable case: it’s getting eroded every year.[/QUOTE]
    Consider, in 1994, when the Real was issued as the new currency, the minimum wage was R$64,79 (monthly). The same year, in the US, the min wage was $4.25 (hourly). So assuming 40hrs per week, a monthlyincome of $680. It has only increased to it’s present level of $7.25 (same formula = $1,160 monthly). So roughly double of what it was 20 years ago. Yet in Brasil, it has risen from R$64,79 to what will soon be R$678,00! TEN times greater in the same time period!
    Definitely the ‘most probable case’, and IMO, inextricably linked to why the cost of living in Brasil has skyrocketed! The minimum wage is ten times more than it was almost 20 years ago, and things cost approx. ten times more than they did 20 years ago.
    As soon as an increase to the salário mínimo is announced, usually 2-3 months prior, EVERYONE, from the barber, to the butcher, to the candlestick-maker immediately raise their prices! It’s a total wash, yet it keeps the povo focused on the carrot dangling from the end of the stick.
    [/QUOTE]
    This calculation can get a little hairy – present values, etc.. What we have to take into consideration is what was the buying power of the Real during that period. According to a few people I know, like my wife, the Real was MUCH stronger in 1994 than it is today.
    Yes, I was thinking about the carrot analogy yesterday too. It’s so easy to see, yet these people here “can’t” see it, or don’t won’t to. They have novelas and cacahça.
    This happens everywhere to a certain extent, not just in Brazil. The US tries very hard to keep their balance sheet as awful as possible. It’s looking the same for Europe. Argentina is a wreck.
    I know there are lotsa CFAs out there and other people who know what is really going on. I’d like to know what they do to keep their mind off of it.

  • #231946

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob] According to a few people I know, like my wife, the Real was MUCH stronger in 1994 than it is today.[/QUOTE]
    As far as I remember in 1994/95 US$ 1,00 = +/- R$ 0,80.
    The slogan was one chicken = 1 Real. (kilo)
    The “Frango” was considered the hero of the Real Plan.
    Now you pay at least R$ 6,00 for a kilo of chicken.
    The salaries didn’t multiply by 6 since then.
    Prices did.oil&gas2013-01-07 11:58:56

  • #231952

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Relax;forget the hype, the party’s over. It’s as if we’ve had unprotected sex with astranger and the hangover is adding to the paranoia. We wanted to believe andso we’re accomplices in what may be best described as the gringo’s greatBrazilian wet Dream.

    Brazil hasn’t changed; all that’s happened inrecent years is Brazil’s opportunistic if not parasitical surfing on the greatglobal wave of the credit boom that has, as we all know, now bust on the beachalong with all of the big white whales. We’re about five or six years away fromany global recovery and the devil will take the hindmost in the meanwhile.Brazil’s oligarchy will continue to do what it’s always done while watchinginept politicians together with all the others sink or swim as they do theother thing; whatever that is. Predictions? 2.00 or less in the absence of nothing strange or startling. [Our thanksgo to our sponsor, a nice bottle of Merlot]. Embarrassed

  • #231964

    tech-spec
    Member


    This in the city of Rio Preto.
    Note “Renda Media” (Medium income): (1994) R$ 1175,17 – (2010) R$ 1301,58
    1994 a bottle 600ml beer = R$ 0,45
    2010 a small matchbox = R$ 0,25

  • #231970

    Gilmour
    Member

    nice graphic. But things here were higher in 2010 than in Rio Preto.

  • #231993

    That’s an excellent graphic O&G, and regardless where one lives (in Brasil), it explains much! Essentially, what we’re seeing, is while multitudes have been ‘raised from poverty’ with the regular and substantial yearly increases in the SM (and I’m not inferring, at all, that this is a bad thing), we nonetheless see that the actualmiddle class has been fairly stagnant in their earnings (yet experience the same price increases as everyone else). Glad to see it’s not just my imagination that I seem to pedal (faster), but seemingly get nowhere….

  • #232024

    tech-spec
    Member


    Anyone remembers these, the R$ 0,01 centavo coin and the R$ 1,00 banknote ?
    They are out of circulation for a long time.
    In the 90’s you needed these coins doing your weekly “supermercado”.
    If the supermarket had to give you back 2 or 3 centavos and they were not available, they offered you a matchbox, later some “balas doce”, chewing gum.
    Now you can buy these banknotes of R$ 1,00 at the MercadoLivre for up to R$ 5,00 each, the coins for R$ 1,00 etc.

  • #232025

    tech-spec
    Member

    The place I sometimes stop and have a can of beer,or more, raised their price last month.
    From R$ 2,50 a can to R$ 3,00 = 20% at once.
    Why not like inflation to lets say R$ 2,65-R$ 2,70 or so ?
    I remember 2 years ago they went up from R$ 2,00 to R$ 2,50 = 25% at once.Thats more than 45% in 2 years.
    There is no logic in this.
    It remembers the times we had 70-80% inflation/month.oil&gas2013-01-08 04:19:38

  • #232085

    Hanging on my ‘fridge…Wink

  • #232092

    missycrissy
    Member

    Any exchange rate predictions for EURO:Real for 2013 ?

  • #232093

    missycrissy
    Member

    Now it is

    EUR/BRL
    2.6641
    Will it change ?
  • #232095

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Grimm]Now it is

    EUR/BRL
    2.6641
    Will it change ?

    [/QUOTE]

    Well,obviously you’ve had a sheltered life.
  • #232096

    missycrissy
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit][QUOTE=Grimm]Now it is

    EUR/BRL
    2.6641
    Will it change ?

    [/QUOTE]

    Well,obviously you’ve had a sheltered life.

    [/QUOTE]
    sh*t, Yes.
    Once again, any predictions ?
    I would welcome 1 EUR for 4.6641, given the number of communists in Brazil messing up the economy, I think it could happen

  • #232101

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Well of course China is run by communistsand thus far they have kicked ass economically speaking; would that theirBrazilian counterparts perform similarly. Meanwhile Europe is double screwedwith massive debt, political division, unemployment racing toward 12% and it’sbeing run by the most inept committee of politicians ever to see the light ofday. Predictions for the Euro? Who knows but it ain’t getting good anytimesoon.

  • #232102

    scotty447
    Member

    [QUOTE=Grimm]
    ….Once again, any predictions ?[/QUOTE]
    ‘Calma,Tô pensando’

  • #232103

    missycrissy
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    Well of course China is run by communistsand thus far they have kicked ass economically speaking; would that theirBrazilian counterparts perform similarly. Meanwhile Europe is double screwedwith massive debt, political division, unemployment racing toward 12% and it’sbeing run by the most inept committee of politicians ever to see the light ofday. Predictions for the Euro? Who knows but it ain’t getting good anytimesoon.

    [/QUOTE]
    They are kicking ass because the corporations shifted the production there for obvious reasons.
    They are the best enemy the money can buy right now, but it can change.

  • #232282

    Gilmour
    Member

    Frank, re-check your history books. China has always been the low cost producer. Why do you think was the cause of the Opium Wars?
    For some reason, “conspiracies” outside of a couple of generations are no longer considered conspiracies anymore.

  • #232287

    Populations, rounded off….
    China: 1,344,130,000
    US: 311,592,000
    Brasil: 205,717,000
    Who needsa job? Raise your hand.
    Who wantsa job? Raise the other hand.
    Posted this video at the beginning of the 2012 forex thread. Will this be a case of art, imitating life?!?
    China owns US(?)
    Time to learn some Mandarin….

  • #232289

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]Time to learn some Mandarin….[/QUOTE]
    I remember when we would all be having to learn Russian …
    And then Japanese …
    Yeah, Yeah …

  • #232293

    [QUOTE=jacare][QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]Time to learn some Mandarin….[/QUOTE]
    I remember when we would all be having to learn Russian …
    And then Japanese …
    Yeah, Yeah …[/QUOTE]
    More populations, rounded off.
    Russia: 141,930,000
    Japan: 127,817,000
    China: 1,344,130,000
    Yeah, yeah….

  • #232295

    Gilmour
    Member

    GF, the US is the type of country that would invent some BS reason to devalue it’s Treasuries specifically screwing the Chinese. According to history as well, China doesn’t do well sending off large armies to fight far away. So I think for now that’s why everyone just accepts the status quo. I also think that North Korea is a proxy for American anti-Chinese propoganda.
    Also GF, those pop. stats are irrelevant. Here’s why: In China, it has been the policy for many years to just have one child. If they had more, they had to pay more money. But it’s hard to stop Yin/Yang Human Nature so people kept on having kids. The suspicion is that there are really DOUBLE the amount of people in China, and the government there really has no idea what the “real” population is.
    Maybe someone can confirm it here:
    The other day on the news, I heard something about a Brazilian Sovereign Fund and the Brazzer government raiding this fund because revenues fell short. I had to leave the room, chasing the kiddo, and when I came back, they were talking about loans from BNDES. Does anyone have an article about this?

  • #232300

    All population figures, and their associated linguistics aside, this says it all…

    REPORTER: On the 14th Amendment, you finally said you do not believe you have that power to bypass Congress. Do you believe you have this power to mint a trillion-dollar coin?

    CARNEY (White House Spokesman): There is no Plan B. There is no backup plan. There is Congress’s responsibility to pay the bills of the United States.

    REPORTER: You’re being a little evasive in your answer. I understand. But I mean, are you trying to leave room?

    CARNEY: That could never be true.

    REPORTER: Are you trying to leave room or not?

    CARNEY: Look, there is no substitute for Congress extending the borrowing authority of the United States.

    REPORTER: Will you fully rule it out?

    CARNEY: You could speculate about a lot of things, but there is — nothing needs to come to these kinds of, you know, speculative notions about how to deal with a problem that is easily resolved by Congress doing its job.

    The idea of a $1 trillion coin, which started out as little more than Twitter chitchat, has mushroomed into a cause célèbre for critics of the Republicans in Congress, who are expected to use the debt ceiling ‚Äì the current $16.4 trillion limit on the country‚Äôs borrowing ‚Äì as leverage with the Presidentin the budget battle.

    Under a proposal being pushed by some policy wonks, the U.S. Treasury would use an obscure commemorative-coin law to mint a platinum coin, give it a value of $1 trillion, and deposit it at the Federal Reserve, thus helping the U.S. avoid defaulting on its bills if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling.

    The Treasury Department declined to comment.

    Source

  • #232306

    Gilmour
    Member

    ^^ The US is in a race to the bottom. It makes me sick at my stomach. It’s out of reality because neither I, nor anyone living on this planet, could do what the US is doing. In Brazil it is impossible because most loans are shorter-term. The most important thing to remember is that THEY now, are doing exactly the same thing that was done several times over the past 3-4 thousand years. Governments/kings spent too much money. The more they spend, the more they want. To put the “big government” beast back in the bag in the US would require a major shift.
    The saddest part of all is that the government there is the “Reigning Champion of Distractions”. When Obama’s falsified Birth Certificate was put on the internet, we had the downed Navy Seals in the Chinook helicopter. in Afganistan After the elections, when a few states wanted to seceed from the Union, we had “Sandy Hook Elementary shooting”. And the people forget everything……. The media spin there is so valuable.
    spongebob2013-01-09 20:44:59

  • #232728
  • #232734

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    Relax;forget the hype, the party’s over. It’s as if we’ve had unprotected sex with astranger and the hangover is adding to the paranoia. We wanted to believe andso we’re accomplices in what may be best described as the gringo’s greatBrazilian wet Dream.

    Brazil hasn’t changed; all that’s happened inrecent years is Brazil’s opportunistic if not parasitical surfing on the greatglobal wave of the credit boom that has, as we all know, now bust on the beachalong with all of the big white whales. We’re about five or six years away fromany global recovery and the devil will take the hindmost in the meanwhile.Brazil’s oligarchy will continue to do what it’s always done while watchinginept politicians together with all the others sink or swim as they do theother thing; whatever that is. Predictions? 2.00 or less in the absence of nothing strange or startling. [Our thanksgo to our sponsor, a nice bottle of Merlot]. Embarrassed

    [/QUOTE]

    Ahem…as I was saying…
  • #232841

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    All population figures, and their associated linguistics aside, this says it all…

    REPORTER: On the 14th Amendment, you finally said you do not believe you have that power to bypass Congress. Do you believe you have this power to mint a trillion-dollar coin?

    CARNEY (White House Spokesman): There is no Plan B. There is no backup plan. There is Congress’s responsibility to pay the bills of the United States.

    REPORTER: You’re being a little evasive in your answer. I understand. But I mean, are you trying to leave room?

    CARNEY: That could never be true.

    REPORTER: Are you trying to leave room or not?

    CARNEY: Look, there is no substitute for Congress extending the borrowing authority of the United States.

    REPORTER: Will you fully rule it out?

    CARNEY: You could speculate about a lot of things, but there is — nothing needs to come to these kinds of, you know, speculative notions about how to deal with a problem that is easily resolved by Congress doing its job.

    The idea of a $1 trillion coin, which started out as little more than Twitter chitchat, has mushroomed into a cause célèbre for critics of the Republicans in Congress, who are expected to use the debt ceiling ‚Äì the current $16.4 trillion limit on the country‚Äôs borrowing ‚Äì as leverage with the Presidentin the budget battle.

    Under a proposal being pushed by some policy wonks, the U.S. Treasury would use an obscure commemorative-coin law to mint a platinum coin, give it a value of $1 trillion, and deposit it at the Federal Reserve, thus helping the U.S. avoid defaulting on its bills if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling.

    The Treasury Department declined to comment.

    Source

    [/QUOTE]
    Ahh.. US News. I dontchie likey (don’t like). I already sent the them my 2010 returns. Going to do 2011 and 2012 and then hopefully renounce or relinquish. That country is this far off oppressor that shows up in my already tax-oppressed life in Brasil. Brasil has to be at least 50% worse in terms of oppressive taxes than the US. But I don’t live in the US. I haven’t for many years. If it weren’t for a couple of websites with a lot of people “hoping” that the US changes it’s taxation model, I would have renounced a loooooooong time ago.Then at least I only have to account to 1 tax oppressor, instead of 2!

  • #232852

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    Ahh.. US News. I dontchie likey (don’t like). I already sent the them my 2010 returns. Going to do 2011 and 2012 and then hopefully renounce or relinquish. That country is this far off oppressor that shows up in my already tax-oppressed life in Brasil. Brasil has to be at least 50% worse in terms of oppressive taxes than the US. But I don’t live in the US. I haven’t for many years. If it weren’t for a couple of websites with a lot of people “hoping” that the US changes it’s taxation model, I would have renounced a loooooooong time ago.Then at least I only have to account to 1 tax oppressor, instead of 2!
    [/QUOTE]

    Bob, for thesake of sanity, particularly yours, bring some detail into this torment thatyou’re suffering regarding US taxation. By all indication you do not have anyactual tax liabilities in the US and the only repression you mention is simplythe requirement to file a tax return?

    Renouncingyour US citizenship and adopting in its place Brazilian status is retrogradeand bordering on madness. I say madness because wanting to be part of its chaosand being dependent upon its protection would be folly. The man doth protesttoo much, methinks; something else nags at your soul.

  • #232875

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    Is Brazil losing the Japanese carry trade?
    Mrs. Watanabe Fleeing Brazil Taxes Buys Lira Debt: Turkey Credit
    Lira bonds sold to individual Japanese investors exceeded those for all other emerging markets last year as Turkish inflation slowed and higher-yielding Brazil fell out of favor amid tax increases and a weakening currency. …
    – Bloomberg

  • #232880

    miguel
    Participant

    Yes, it would seem that even Mrs. Watanabe, that most loyal species of Brazil’s foreign investors, finally “gets it” : Brazil’s risk premiums have been way out of whack vs. potential returns/losses.
    As you point out, that shift has made itself known in the fixed income markets, but perhaps even more markedly in the NDF (non-deliverable forward) currency market.
    Any wonder that exchange controls … capital controls … and just the overall custo brasil have been increasingly driving foreign investors away not only from financial investments, but much needed Foreign Direct Investment in the (so-called) “productive” economy?
    miguel2013-01-15 06:27:19

  • #232891

    Gilmour
    Member

    Espirit, I’ve talked about my reasons hundreds of times on here already. To me, it’s more FATCA relating, being treated differently. A Brazilian can open a bank account anywhere in the world. An American can not.

  • #232999

    Pedro
    Member

    I would imagine the only reason why Brazil doesnt follow similar lines, on this one, is because the people making the rules, whilst they are singing the pied pipers tune, have all got beach houses in Miami with a 150ft yacht parked outside. LOL

  • #233013

    [QUOTE=Amsterdam]whilst they are singing the pied pipers tune, have all got beach houses in Miami with a 150ft yacht parked outside. [/QUOTE]
    If they have a yacht parked outside, then their house is on the intracoastal, not the beach…. Wink

  • #233105

    Maybe 2013 won’t be such a boring year after all….
    For those that haven’t read, Germany is bringing most of their gold bullion back on to sovereign soil. Two-thirds of their reserves held in London were yanked a few months ago. Now, their bullion held in NYC and Paris are headed back home. Interesting.
    In November, Brasil boosted it’s gold ‘reserves’, to the highest level in over ten years. Yet most of these reserves are held elsewhere, like Germany’s were.

    Is a lamentation of black swans about to overcome the almighty USD?!?

    Found this section of an article posted in Oct of last year, at Zerohedge, to be intriguing….

    And this is the whole story. Because by doing what it has every right to do, the German Central Bank implicitly broke the cardinal rule of true modern monetary system (never to be confused with that socialist acronym fad MMT, MMR or some such comparable mumbo-jumbo). And the rule is that a sovereign can never put its own people above the global corporatist-cum-banking oligarchy, which needs to have access to all hard (and otherwise) assets at any given moment, on a moment’s notice, as the system’s explicit leverage at last check inclusive of the nearly $1 quadrillion in derivatives, is about 20 times greater than global GDP. This also happens to be the reason why the entire world is always at most a few keystrokes away from a complete monetary (and trade) paralysis, as the Lehman aftermath and the Reserve Fund breaking the buck so aptly showed.

    We are confident that little if anything will be made of the Buba’s action, because dwelling on it too much may expose just who the first country will be (or already has been) when the tide finally breaks, and when it will be every sovereign for themselves. Because at that point, which will come eventually, not only Buba, but every other bank, corporation, and individual will scramble to recover their own gold located in some vault in London, New York, or Paris, or at your friendly bank vault down the street, and instead will merely find a recently emptied storage room with humorously written I.O.U. letters in the place of 1 kilo gold bricks.

    Gringo.Floripa2013-01-16 19:23:39

  • #233164

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Adding to GF’spost it should be mentioned that the Germans are clearing out all of their goldfrom France; the 374 tonnes held in the French Central Bank. Perhaps Germany isconcerned that there’s been a lot of double counting going on suggesting thatgold inventories include paper claims to gold. Germany has also undertakenpurity tests such is their concern.

    It doesn’tgo further than speculation to suggest that given the political discomfort’within the Euro Zone and its dire economic situation, including the possibilitythat the value of the Euro will likely fall should the bailout of deadbeatnations continue to further more political union, to suggest that theBundesbank doesn’t trust the French when push comes to shove. Hard assets arebest kept handy and at home. Aside from the fact that the FIAT monetary systemis bankrupt, it’s all about the Euro and its unsecure future.

    It should besaid also that Germany is taking back a further 300 tonnes from the US butleaving the balance of 1200 tonnes in US care along with an undisclosed tonnagein the UK.

  • #233185

    Gilmour
    Member

    I could say this 10 million times each day… maybe you guys do it because you’re bored… but news DOES NOT reflect the future. Here’s one of about 1,000 examples I have:
    In 2008, I was sitting on the sofa with the wife and sogra, watching the news (grrrr!). O Sr Analista Fulano came on. Oil was at around $130/barrel at the time. He said he expected oil to go to $300 barrel in 6 months. Well, in 1 month, oil was around $20’ish a barrel!!! (Oil lost 80-90% of its market value during that time!)The markets did exactly the opposite that Mr. Revered analyst said!
    Ditto Ditto and Ditto on stock prices.
    This analyst was lucky because prices eventually came back alot, but most stuff NEVER “comes back”, especiallystocks. Your alternatives? Look for strong long-term trends, reoccurring price patterns (I don’t trade geometrical patterns), when price is out-of-sync with the trend, etc… Everything you need is out there for free. Most everyone who sells “a course” to learn something is just getting free stuff and adding some examples.

  • #233186

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    In November, Brasil boosted it’s gold ‘reserves’, to the highest level in over ten years. Yet most of these reserves are held elsewhere, like Germany’s were.
    [/QUOTE]
    I would love ot know where this gold is being held. Can I see it? Doubt it. I bet Brazilian news sources are making this up. The only gold I would believe for Brazil is gold rings and necklaces for the politicians’ wives and mistresses!
    I’ve made some nice money since December trading against the dollar and especially the Japanese Yen (EURJPY has been my favourite for the past couple of months!). If the correlation still holds, then that would mean gold too. But gold is extremely volatile; it could hit 1200 or 2000 in a few days. Are there any profitable metals traders here?At least for me, all I can say that based on the WEEKLY timeframe, Gold is starting a bounce. How far up the bounce will be, nobody can say for sure. But a bounce is a bounce….. good for making some quick bucks!

  • #233187

    Anonymous

    1

  • #233196

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]I could say this 10 million times each day… maybe you guys do it because you’re bored… but news DOES NOT reflect the future. Here’s one of about 1,000 examples I have:
    In 2008, I was sitting on the sofa with the wife and sogra, watching the news (grrrr!). O Sr Analista Fulano came on. Oil was at around $130/barrel at the time. He said he expected oil to go to $300 barrel in 6 months. Well, in 1 month, oil was around $20’ish a barrel!!! (Oil lost 80-90% of its market value during that time!)The markets did exactly the opposite that Mr. Revered analyst said!
    Ditto Ditto and Ditto on stock prices.
    This analyst was lucky because prices eventually came back alot, but most stuff NEVER “comes back”, especiallystocks. Your alternatives? Look for strong long-term trends, reoccurring price patterns (I don’t trade geometrical patterns), when price is out-of-sync with the trend, etc… Everything you need is out there for free. Most everyone who sells “a course” to learn something is just getting free stuff and adding some examples.
    [/QUOTE]

    Bob, news ishistory that may be but a few minutes old yet nonetheless it is history and itappears that you are confusing news with pundit predictions; just saying

  • #233200

    Gilmour
    Member

    Espirit and all– hallelujah! but please LIVE what you are writing. Exclude the pundits and talk about real setups. Everyone can look at the setups and decide whether or not it’s good — the bad part is that I don’t know how we could do this with the Brazilian REAL!!! Ahh!! Cause the Brazilian real isn’t really traded.
    I had some drama this week: I paid to go into a “gurus” trading room a couple of weeks ago. Everything I mentioned happened (nothing special, just common sense). They berated me until I left. They said I was “disruptive”. For the record, I never took any of this “gurus” trades. My wife is my witness, I was really going to use him as “short fodder”– when he said to “buy”, I would sell!In the short-term, he was wrong 90% of the time. But he caught onto what was happening… I should have stayed quiet… they berated me until I cancelled the account. Arrrrrrrgh!
    Point is, Gurus are usually wrong. And do like I DID’NT do…keep your mouth shut!

  • #233205

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]Espirit and all– hallelujah! but please LIVE what you are writing. Exclude the pundits and talk about real setups. Everyone can look at the setups and decide whether or not it’s good — the bad part is that I don’t know how we could do this with the Brazilian REAL!!! Ahh!! Cause the Brazilian real isn’t really traded.
    I had some drama this week: I paid to go into a “gurus” trading room a couple of weeks ago. Everything I mentioned happened (nothing special, just common sense). They berated me until I left. They said I was “disruptive”. For the record, I never took any of this “gurus” trades. My wife is my witness, I was really going to use him as “short fodder”– when he said to “buy”, I would sell!In the short-term, he was wrong 90% of the time. But he caught onto what was happening… I should have stayed quiet… they berated me until I cancelled the account. Arrrrrrrgh!
    Point is, Gurus are usually wrong. And do like I DID’NT do…keep your mouth shut!
    [/QUOTE]

    Gettin alittle erratic now Bob and soundin desperate – keep it real and on point. Tongue

  • #233491

    Gilmour
    Member

    For all of you haters, we actually touched 2,14 (or 2,1399). My prediction for 2012 was 2,15-2,16.
    2,14 is pretty da*m close!!
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDBRL%3DX+Interactive#symbol=;range=3m;compare=;indicator=ema%2820%29+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

    I expect we’ll be going back up to test those previous highs at some point.
    (2,14-2,20) But the market doesn’t do anything rational. If it looks like we’re going up, it’ll drop first, scare everyone to death, and then go up.

  • #233500

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]For all of you haters, we actually touched 2,14 (or 2,1399). My prediction for 2012 was 2,15-2,16.
    2,14 is pretty da*m close!!
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDBRL%3DX+Interactive#symbol=;range=3m;compare=;indicator=ema%2820%29+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

    I expect we’ll be going back up to test those previous highs at some point.
    (2,14-2,20) But the market doesn’t do anything rational. If it looks like we’re going up, it’ll drop first, scare everyone to death, and then go up.
    [/QUOTE]

    Bob, your current dissatisfaction withyour life appears to be morphing into paranoiac absurdity, especially when youaddress your fellow posters as haters. And as evidence of this I would citeyour post of the 17thJanuary when you gave an account of anincident when your fellow gurus in a professional trading room berated youuntil you left because of your disruptive attitude.

    Bob, you may very well have an as yetunproved talent in the cunning art of currency trading, but may I suggest thatuntil you can accrue sufficient funds beyond your current nickel & dime crèchethat you contain the frustration that you cannot profit from this, as yetunproved talent. Ironic, is it not, that money makes money yet without moneyhow does one make money; your problem in a nutshell.

    As to the subject matter of thisthread: if you want a kewpie doll for coming close with your prediction ofR$2.14 for the Dollar/Real exchange rate during a few short hours, then by allmeans have a kewpie doll. The reality is that the average exchange rate for lastyear was more in the order of R$1.98. That kewpie doll would be smallcompensation for the heavy losses if you were actually betting on up to R$2.16.Be that as it may. In any event the importance of this thread is perhapslimited to those who have some skin in this game e.g. those who are holdingDollars and waiting for a good opportunity or those waiting to cash in theirReais and return from whence they came; either way I’m sure of my predictionthat your fellow contributors to this thread would appreciate you not referringto them as haters. Peace bro. Wink

  • #233581

    Gilmour
    Member

    Espirit/Frank – you have to be kidding me. 2,14 was very close. No Espirit, there is no insatisfaction with life, really. I do this sort of thing on a daily basis. I surround myself with people that say the very same things: don’t pay attention to the news, analysts or gurus. All I try to do that is tell you guys the same things to help. If what I said was the contrary (if listening to the news could actually help), then I would never open my mouth. Trust me, I’m not hurting $$. Haven’t any of you here ever wondered why some of the richest business owners in Brazil are foreigners or 2nd generation “estrangeiros”. No, I’m not talking about money made in the US or Europe, and someone who retires here, but money that’s made in Brazil.
    Different perspectives are very important. When I was young and broke, I didn’t give a da*m, I’d jump out of airplanes or drive 200 MILES per hour on any decent European road. Ah, it’s amazing how things change with life.

  • #233582

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]Espirit/Frank – you have to be kidding me. 2,14 was very close. No Espirit, there is no insatisfaction with life, really. I do this sort of thing on a daily basis. I surround myself with people that say the very same things: don’t pay attention to the news, analysts or gurus. All I try to do that is tell you guys the same things to help. If what I said was the contrary (if listening to the news could actually help), then I would never open my mouth. Trust me, I’m not hurting $$. Haven’t any of you here ever wondered why some of the richest business owners in Brazil are foreigners or 2nd generation “estrangeiros”. No, I’m not talking about money made in the US or Europe, and someone who retires here, but money that’s made in Brazil.
    Different perspectives are very important. When I was young and broke, I didn’t give a da*m, I’d jump out of airplanes or drive 200 MILES per hour on any decent European road. Ah, it’s amazing how things change with life.
    [/QUOTE]

    Spongie – so you are trading futures in Brazil? Where? As in who do you use to trade with in Brazil? Or are you using your accounts back in the the USA?
    One can (try to) make money on the markets anywhere in the world just as long as one has a trading account and an internet connection.
    And the theory about 2nd generation estrangeiros could be applied anywhere in the world, not only Brazil, i suppose it comes with being born rather than moving here and spending 10 years adjusting to the language and culture and whilst getting your documents sorted out in order to be able to open a bank account and maybe get a mortgage.
    Edit. if anything it just proves how difficult it is here. In the USA you have broke economic migrants falling out of the doors of the aeroplane and within 10 years they are mooring their 150 foot Yachts at the end of their gardens.
    This is to anyone, i am throwing it out there, Quiz of the week, one economic migrant estrangeiro that made it Big in brazil, so to speak, within 10, lets says 15 years, no lets say their entire life after arriving here, anyone will do, any examples anyone and politicians dont count either, we are talking the free market not politicians. Thnx Wink

    Amsterdam2013-01-21 08:15:22

  • #233595

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]O principal problema está, entre tantos, no real demasiadamente apreciado.
    Fazendo correção do real considerando inflação oficial IPCA descontado inflação dos EEUU, teria que estar cotado no patamar de R$ 2,60.
    Isto significa que há necessidade de ajuste de 30% sobre a cotação de hoje.
    Se considerar a inflação IGP-DI, índice que é utilizado para diversas contas do governo, o dólar deveria estar cotado próximo de R$ 4,00.

    Dizer que o dólar é flutuante no Brasil é uma outra piada. O Banco Central vem atuando fortemente nas cotações do dólar, comprando ou vendendo para mantê-lo dentro da faixa cambial informal. O Banco Central vem utilizando até artifício para manter o dólar sob controle, emitindo título “derivativo” denominado de Swap Cambial Reverso, que nada mais é do que venda de dólar no futuro.
    Se permite segurar o real apreciado, em tese, é possível manter o real no patamar que deveria estar, de no mínimo em R$ 2,60.
    Ossami Sakamori, 68, engenheiro civil, foi professor da UFPR.[/quote]

  • #233616

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Well of course everyone is entitledto their opinions, even Osama, a can’t do so I teach civil engineering universitylecturer. Ask a hundred people for their predictions and you’ll get a hundredand ten excellent guesses each as valid as the next. Stern%20Smile

  • #233621

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=oil&gas] [quote]O principal problema está, entre tantos, no real demasiadamente apreciado.
    Fazendo correção do real considerando inflação oficial IPCA descontado inflação dos EEUU, teria que estar cotado no patamar de R$ 2,60.
    Isto significa que há necessidade de ajuste de 30% sobre a cotação de hoje.
    Se considerar a inflação IGP-DI, índice que é utilizado para diversas contas do governo, o dólar deveria estar cotado próximo de R$ 4,00.

    Dizer que o dólar é flutuante no Brasil é uma outra piada. O Banco Central vem atuando fortemente nas cotações do dólar, comprando ou vendendo para mantê-lo dentro da faixa cambial informal. O Banco Central vem utilizando até artifício para manter o dólar sob controle, emitindo título “derivativo” denominado de Swap Cambial Reverso, que nada mais é do que venda de dólar no futuro.
    Se permite segurar o real apreciado, em tese, é possível manter o real no patamar que deveria estar, de no mínimo em R$ 2,60.
    Ossami Sakamori, 68, engenheiro civil, foi professor da UFPR.[/quote]
    [/QUOTE]
    I agree with this guy 100% In fact the still planeloads of Brazilians returning with bulging suitcases is proof of the over valued Real. Soon the Gov will be forced to let the Real float, and we will see 3.60. In the next six months.

  • #233624

    SecureMedsrx
    Participant

    3.60!!! AHHHHHHHHHAaaaaaaa I bloody hope not.

  • #233632

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] In fact the still planeloads of Brazilians returning with bulging suitcases is proof of the over valued Real. [/QUOTE]
    I think this is more a result of the absurd taxation policies of the Brazilian government. Was at the National Retail Federation conference in NYC last week, several big time CEOs mentioned Brazil as the market where they had the most trouble entering because of red tape and taxes. Custo Brasil!

  • #233634

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=andrewfroboy] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] In fact the still planeloads of Brazilians returning with bulging suitcases is proof of the over valued Real. [/QUOTE]
    I think this is more a result of the absurd taxation policies of the Brazilian government. Was at the National Retail Federation conference in NYC last week, several big time CEOs mentioned Brazil as the market where they had the most trouble entering because of red tape and taxes. Custo Brasil![/QUOTE]
    Include the Brazilians with money, still invading Miami and buying entire buildings/multiple units to rent out…
    They know what an over valued Real is!
    Talk about red tape and taxes, with stroke of a pen, Dilma increased the imported car tax 40% overnight.
    She also signed the tax on foreign credit card purchases.
    She is about to bump up the price of gas at least 7%.
    New transport law may increase transport costs 40%.
    Lots of stuff hitting the fan this year.

  • #233635

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    absurd how many taxes we pay and how little we get in return for it

  • #233654

    celso
    Member

    Rolf Kunz explains that Brazil is following the Argentine path of Cristina Kirchner. Very bearish outlook from O Estadao de SP.
    Trapalhões e milongueiros
    21 de janeiro de 2013 10h22
    Rolf Kuntz
    Não há profissionais do jeitinho no governo brasileiro. São todos amadores. A turma do Financial Times foi muito generosa na avaliação publicada no blog Beyondbrics. Se os ministros e altos funcionários fossem profissionais, ninguém seria flagrado tão facilmente, e de forma tão grotesca, nas tentativas de maquiar as contas públicas ou a inflação. A promiscuidade entre o Tesouro e os bancos federais seria menos escandalosa e menos assustadora. Os analistas levariam mais tempo para identificar a cópia da velha conta movimento, de muito má memória. Os condutores da política externa, a começar pelos estrategistas do Palácio do Planalto, pensariam duas vezes, pelo menos, antes de entrar na manobra, liderada pela senhora Cristina Kirchner, para incluir no Mercosul a Venezuela bolivariana. Mas esse foi apenas mais um lance desmoralizante para a diplomacia brasileira. Restabelecer a velha e respeitada imagem de competência e profissionalismo do Itamaraty vai dar trabalho e tomar muito tempo.
    Além de amadores, trapalhões. Conseguiram elevar a um nível surpreendente o grau de bagunça do setor público brasileiro. O Tesouro converteu-se em fonte permanente de fundos bancários. A responsabilidade pelo controle da inflação passou do Banco Central (BC) para a Petrobrás, o Ministério da Fazenda, as Prefeituras de São Paulo e do Rio de Janeiro e o governo paulista, para citar só alguns dos novos encarregados da função. Para atender ao companheiro Guido Mantega, ministro da Fazenda, o prefeito Fernando Haddad concordou em atrasar o aumento das tarifas de ônibus. O governador poderá contribuir adiando para depois de março o reajuste das passagens de metrô. Essas decisões apenas servirão, naturalmente, para aliviar os índices no primeiro trimestre.
    A participação da Petrobrás deve incluir operações técnicas mais complicadas. A diretoria da empresa continua defendendo a elevação dos preços da gasolina e do diesel, contida nos últimos anos por decisão do Palácio do Planalto. Uma parcela maior de etanol na mistura da gasolina poderá limitar o impacto para o consumidor. Mas isso dependerá da nova safra de álcool, isto é, de um setor seriamente prejudicado, nos últimos anos, pela contenção política dos preços de combustíveis.
    Ao mesmo tempo, a Agência Nacional do Petróleo (ANP), aparentemente desperta depois de um longo torpor, cobra da Petrobrás mais investimentos em produção. A cobrança parece redundante. A atual diretoria da estatal tem-se mostrado consciente dos problemas da empresa, das dificuldades para cumprir metas ambiciosas e, é claro, dos estragos causados por anos de comando centralizado no Palácio do Planalto e orientado por interesses políticos. A presidente da Petrobrás, Graça Foster, tem hoje uma fala mais diplomática, mas disse o suficiente, em seus primeiros tempos, para mostrar os custos de uma gestão politizada.
    Enquanto o Ministério da Fazenda comanda a administração dos índices de preços, o BC executa com muita disciplina a política palaciana de redução e contenção dos juros. O comunicado emitido logo depois da última reunião do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) pode causar perplexidade a um estrangeiro. Considerando o balanço de riscos para a inflação, que apresentou piora no curto prazo, a recuperação da atividade doméstica, menos intensa do que o esperado, e a complexidade que ainda envolve o ambiente internacional, o Comitê entende que a estabilidade das condições monetárias por um período de tempo suficientemente prolongado é a estratégia mais adequada para garantir a convergência da inflação para a meta, informou o BC.
    Se houve piora no cenário dos preços, por que manter os juros em 7,25%? Se o Copom tivesse aumentado a taxa , teria sentido mencionar a manutenção das condições por um período mais ou menos longo. É preciso levar em conta a defasagem entre a decisão de política monetária e seus efeitos. Mas a história é outra: a taxa de 7,25% ao ano resultou de uma prolongada redução dos juros básicos, iniciada no fim de agosto de 2011. Ao conhecer esse fato, o estrangeiro começaria a entender. A inflação está longe de ser uma preocupação para o dirigentes do BC. O objetivo da política monetária tem sido o crescimento do produto interno bruto (PIB) ‚Äì com resultados abaixo de pífios, até agora. Além disso ‚Äì e de fato antes de tudo -, o corte de juros é um item muito importante da retórica presidencial.
    De acordo com essa perspectiva, é inconveniente conter a alta de preços por meio dos instrumentos típicos da política monetária. A meta de 4,5%, em vigor a partir de 2005, é mais alta que a de outras economias em desenvolvimento e foi amplamente superada entre 2010 e 2012. Há quem mencione a vigência informal de outra meta, na altura de 5,5%. A hipótese é plausível. De toda forma, justifica-se a pergunta: qual a inflação necessária para desemperrar a economia brasileira?
    No Japão, o primeiro-ministro, Shinzo Abe, pediu ao BC a fixação da meta em 2%, para encerrar a deflação e estimular a economia. Em países sul-americanos, a tendência, hoje, é a redução das metas. No Brasil, a produção continua emperrada mesmo com inflação próxima de 6%. Os obstáculos ao crescimento ‚Äì e ao investimento, para começar ‚Äì devem ser de outra ordem. Em vez de identificá-los e enfrentá-los com decisão, os condutores da política econômica, trapalhões e cada vez mais milongueiros, tomam outro caminho. Embora com algum pudor, seguem o exemplo kirchnerista, multiplicando as intervenções desastradas em todos os setores e dando prioridade à administração dos índices. Não tentam combater de fato a inflação, até porque a toleram. Em outros tempos, quando a inflação oficial era medida no Rio de Janeiro, a prioridade era garantir o abastecimento de feijão do mercado carioca. Vem de longe a tentação de embelezar os índices. A mudança mais notável é o fundo musical. O ritmo inspirador do governo brasileiro, hoje, é o tango.
    Comente!

  • #233659

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]
    She is about to bump up the price of gas at least 7%.
    [/QUOTE]
    And this is only step one. By the end of the year they want 15% total.
    They are also planning on diluting gasoline with alcohol another 5% by mid-year!

  • #233668

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] Rolf Kunz explains that Brazil is following the Argentine path of Cristina Kirchner. Very bearish outlook from O Estadao de SP.
    Trapalhões e milongueiros
    21 de janeiro de 2013 10h22
    Rolf Kuntz
    Não há profissionais do jeitinho no governo brasileiro. São todos amadores. A turma do Financial Times foi muito generosa na avaliação publicada no blog Beyondbrics………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Comente!
    [/QUOTE]

  • #233706

    scotty447
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]
    In fact the still planeloads of Brazilians returning with bulging suitcases is proof of the over valued Real. Soon the Gov will be forced to let the Real float, and we will see 3.60. In the next six months.[/QUOTE]
    GBoF… 3.60 in the next six months ??!!!
    My dream is to see that figure within next 4-5 years.

  • #233733

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Rolf Kunz explains that Brazil is following the Argentine path of Cristina Kirchner….
    [/QUOTE]

    Apparently Rolf’s brother, MustafaKunz, was a bit of a ladies man.

  • #233819

    ukbr
    Member

    According to Bloomberg economists and traders Japans Abeconomics are a forex game changer.
    As most say the US has got to inflate eventually.
    Same for the Euro.
    Additionally, several economists on Bloomberg have stated that on average it takes 7 years to recover from an economic crisis the depth of the credit crisis of 2009; add to that the headwinds of the EU sovereign debt problem and Americas unfunded programs & wars of GW Bush’s reign of terror with P. Obama’s TARP and the Fed’s QE.
    I wonder if the past is at all relevent to today or the future of the Real.

  • #233838

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]
    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Rolf Kunz explains that Brazil is following the Argentine path of Cristina Kirchner….
     [/QUOTE]

    <font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Times New Roman”,”serif”; font-size: 12pt;’>Apparently Rolf‚Äôs brother, Mustafa
    Kunz, was a bit of a ladies man. <?:namespace prefix = o ns = “urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office” /><o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>

    [/QUOTE]
    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK

  • #233839

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Marcos989]According to Bloomberg economists and traders Japans Abeconomics are a forex game changer.
    As most say the US has got to inflate eventually.
    Same for the Euro.
    Additionally, several economists on Bloomberg have stated that on average it takes 7 years to recover from an economic crisis the depth of the credit crisis of 2009; add to that the headwinds of the EU sovereign debt problem and Americas unfunded programs & wars of GW Bush’s reign of terror with P. Obama’s TARP and the Fed’s QE.
    I wonder if the past is at all relevent to today or the future of the Real.
    [/QUOTE]

    Interesting comment. It’s patentlyobvious, isn’t it, that none have any cogent idea of how the global economy trulyfunctions as a mercurial entity. Its ever-changing and evolving complexitiesadopt Newton’s third law to crush Man’s adventures into finances when learnedprize winning economists it can be observed to comment, Opps!

    The system is badly if not fatallyflawed and it seems that Central Banks can do little more than play this gamelike a pinball machine and watch as each effort bounces off and reacts to internationalcircumstances. It’s too big to get a handle on it so we play what we can seeand try to second guess the reaction to the next shot in the dark.

  • #234094

    tech-spec
    Member

    Their perfect cristal ball:
    “The real will trade at an average exchange rate of 1.84 per U.S. dollar, while the economy will expand by 5.5 percent in 2013, according to the proposal the government will present to Congress before April 15.”
    Brazil Sees 5.5% GDP Growth and Weaker Currency in 2013

  • #234113

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    ha, that is hilarious

  • #234606

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    The system is badly if not fatallyflawed and it seems that Central Banks can do little more than play this gamelike a pinball machine and watch as each effort bounces off and reacts to internationalcircumstances. It’s too big to get a handle on it so we play what we can seeand try to second guess the reaction to the next shot in the dark. [/QUOTE]

    Madame Lagarde: Blah, blah, blah…

  • #234652

    doctorlili
    Member

    The actual exchange rate is inching back down. We are far from 2.10. And they are talking about 1.85? If the USD inflation becomes tangible, they might even have a chance at that. I don`t see 3.60 anywhere, possibly never or only after real inflation makes it all come out awash.
    Squiddie2013-01-27 15:40:43

  • #234688

    tech-spec
    Member

    Focus: Mercado eleva previsão de inflação e reduz PIB em 2013
    Da Reuters, em São Paulo
    28/01/201308h38
    Analistas do mercado voltaram a elevar a estimativa para a inflação neste ano, calculando que o IPCA encerrará 2013 com alta de 5,67%, ante 5,65% anteriormente, de acordo com pesquisa Focus do Banco Central divulgada nesta segunda-feira (28).
    Para o PIB (Produto Interno Bruto), o mercado agora projeta expansão de 3,1% por cento em 2013, ante alta de 3,19% na semana anterior.
    A perspectiva para Selic é de manutenção em 7,25%.
    oil&gas2013-01-28 06:35:41

  • #234694

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]
    The actual exchange rate is inching back down. We are far from 2.10. And they are talking about 1.85? If the USD inflation becomes tangible, they might even have a chance at that. I don`t see 3.60 anywhere, possibly never or only after real inflation makes it all come out awash.
    [/QUOTE]
    Parallel market for dollar is 2.10 to sell and 2.19 to buy so Real
    is getting weaker.
    Guido Matega, Tombini, and Dilma want a cheaper Real to stimulate exports, reduce imports, create jobs. The inflation continues to ramp up so Real is going lower.
    Dois vexames brasileiros em 14 anos
    Análise: Rolf Kuntz Pela segunda vez em 14 anos, o Brasil foi o patinho feio da reunião do Fórum Econômico Mundial…
    Análise: Rolf Kuntz
    Pela segunda vez em 14 anos, o Brasil foi o patinho feio da reunião do Fórum Econômico Mundial. No meio da desgraça geral, todos os países com resíduos de seriedade puderam reportar algo positivo – a lenta retomada americana, apesar dos obstáculos políticos, o penoso ajuste no Sul da Europa, o início da unificação bancária na zona do euro, o esforço japonês para vencer a deflação, a nivelação chinesa depois de um ano de indicadores mais fracos. Até os latino-americanos, recém-chegados ao mundo da economia adulta, vêm-se mostrando capazes, com algumas exceções, de enfrentar sem grandes danos a turbulência.
    O Brasil destoou, e seus poucos representantes oficiais contaram histórias típicas de Zé Carioca. O esforço foi inútil e desmoralizante, porque os números básicos eram conhecidos. Além disso, as últimas estimativas do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) foram divulgadas durante a semana e comentadas numa sessão especial por sua diretora-gerente, Christine Lagarde. Os dois fiascos brasileiros, em 1999 e em 2013, têm pelo menos duas semelhanças. Ocorreram depois de alguns anos de boas notícias e pareceram encaixar-se, facilmente, em uma longa tradição de esforços animadores terminados em fracassos.
    Em janeiro de 1999, Brasília abandonou a banda cambial, deixou desvalorizar-se a moeda e preparou-se para enfrentar um novo surto de inflação. O plano de ajuste iniciado cinco anos antes pareceu, afinal, apenas mais um vexame de um país condenado à frustração. “O real tornou-se virtual”, disse num jantar o professor Lawrence Summers, secretário-assistente e futuro titular do Tesouro americano. Para eliminar qualquer dúvida, ele explicitou a piada: a moeda brasileira havia-se convertido em “real ponto com”. Summers estava errado.
    O episódio foi superado, a economia venceu outros solavancos, o crescimento ganhou impulso, a imagem dos Brics consolidou-se e o País tornou-se um dos queridinhos dos investidores. Com alguns tropeços, a nova fase durou até 2010. Vieram depois dois anos de crescimento baixo, inflação alta e deterioração das contas externas – um quadro indigno de um Bric. Não houve piada nem trocadilho, desta vez; apenas perplexidade. A diretora-gerente do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), Christine Lagarde, confessou-se intrigada diante do problema brasileiro.
    Até há pouco, no entanto, o pessoal do Fundo imaginava entender o Brasil. Por isso apoiou a política de redução de juros anunciada em agosto de 2011. Os dois argumentos apresentados pelos dirigentes do Banco Central (BC), na ocasião, foram aceitos facilmente. Primeiro, a crise internacional continuaria em 2012, derrubaria os preços das matérias-primas e as pressões inflacionárias seriam atenuadas. Segundo, o afrouxamento da política monetária seria compensado por uma política fiscal mais austera. Ao manifestar seu apoio, os especialistas do FMI negligenciaram pelo menos quatro pontos importantes:
    1)Deixaram de perguntar se os juros seriam de novo aumentados, caso as previsões sobre os preços agrícolas fossem erradas e as pressões se intensificassem. Quanto a esses pontos, a história do ano passado é clara. As cotações internacionais oscilaram, voltaram a subir no segundo semestre e novamente afetaram o custo da alimentação. O pessoal do BC reconheceu esses fatos, mas apenas para usá-los como desculpa. Os juros básicos, porém, continuaram em queda e enfim se estabilizaram em 7,25%;
    2) Atribuíram a mudança de rumo do BC a uma decisão técnica, passível de correção se as condições se tornassem adversas. Deixaram de perceber o essencial: a decisão era sobretudo política e ajustada ao estilo da presidente Dilma Rousseff. Não haveria recuo, mesmo diante de uma inflação resistente, se o número ficasse dentro da margem de tolerância. Essa margem deveria servir para acomodar oscilações inesperadas, mas foi usada no pior sentido da palavra tolerância, como se a meta fosse qualquer ponto entre 4,5% e 6,5%. Ao reinterpretar a meta dessa maneira, a cúpula do BC mudou disfarçadamente o regime da política monetária;
    3) Aceitaram sem discutir o diagnóstico proposto pelo BC, de uma inflação provocada basicamente pelo aumento das cotações de matérias-primas. Mas ao mesmo tempo chamaram a atenção, mais de uma vez, para a expansão do crédito e do gasto público. Seria fácil atribuir a inflação a fatores mais importantes que um choque de oferta, pela extensão e pela duração de seus efeitos;
    4) Admitiram sem desconfiança a previsão de austeridade fiscal. Não houve política austera. A gastança continuou, dentro dos limites possíveis. O impacto orçamentário da crise e os cerca de R$ 45 bilhões de renúncia fiscal explicam apenas em parte a deterioração das contas públicas. Para eliminar qualquer dúvida sobre a real disposição da presidente Dilma Rousseff, bastaria examinar a marretação contábil do fim do ano e os novos lances armados no governo para desmontar as normas de responsabilidade fiscal.
    Em janeiro de 1999, as autoridades brasileiras, humilhadas, acabaram engolindo comentários arrogantes de Lawrence Summers e conselhos de Domingo Cavalo, ministro da Economia da Argentina, estimulado por alguns empresários brasileiros a mostrar o caminho da luz e da salvação. Em uma reunião com brasileiros e investidores estrangeiros, o ministro argentino pregou longamente com o entusiasmo de um profeta. Um respeitado economista de origem alemã propôs a Brasília o modelo da política argentina, com câmbio fixo e emissão de moeda condicionado à variação de reservas internacionais.
    O perigo, agora, é alguém dar de novo um palpite absurdo e o governo brasileiro aceitar. A presidente Dilma tem deixado transparecer, em muitas ocasiões, a ambição nem tão secreta de ser uma Cristina Kirchner brasileira. Como também é uma admiradora da política bolivariana, talvez possa adotar uma linha eclética. Nossa Senhora Aparecida e todos os anjos e arcanjos protetores do Brasil estão merecendo um aumento.GreatBallsoFire2013-01-28 07:41:11

  • #234696

    doctorlili
    Member

    Has anyone here ever used the parallel market for anything more than peanuts?

  • #234702

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Parallel market for dollar is 2.10 to sell and 2.19 to buy so Real
    is getting weaker.
    Guido Matega, Tombini, and Dilma want a cheaper Real to stimulate exports, reduce imports, create jobs. The inflation continues to ramp up so Real is going lower.[/QUOTE]
    The parallel market.
    That’s it and it always was a good indication.
    It’s not Dilma or Mantega that determines if the dollar goes this or that.
    It’s the market. Government can only sell or buy dollars to try to keep things the way they want, but this has its limits.
    If investors loose confidence in Brazil, they take their money out. Quick. If necessary, they buy on the parallel market.
    If Brazilians think the economy will get worse, they change their R$ poupança savings for dollars.
    Where ?
    They will remember their “Doleiro” of decades ago and change on the parallel market.
    The deviation of the official market vs parallel market rates was (and is) always the best indication of what is coming.

  • #234704

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=Squiddie] Has anyone here ever used the parallel market for anything more than peanuts?[/QUOTE]
    Yes, in the 70/80/90’s
    And probably in the near future again.

  • #234705

    tech-spec
    Member

  • #234707

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    My wife just changed a couple thousand US at the hole in the wall parallel money changer and the rate was two. I would say speculative demand is low right now.

  • #234712

    tech-spec
    Member

    Dólar vira e passa a cair após anúncio de leilão do Banco Central
    28/01/2013 – 11h46
    SÃO PAULO – O Banco Central anunciou nesta segunda-feira que vai realizar um leilão nesta sessão para rolar US$ 1,85 bilhão em contratos de swap cambial tradicional (37 mil contratos) que vencem no início de fevereiro, com os novos papéis vencendo em 1¬∫ de março. Este tipo de contrato equivale a uma venda futura de dólares.
    O dólar, que mostrava alta ante o real, virou e passava a cair 0,49%, a R$ 2,018 na venda, por volta de 11h25. Na mínima, a moeda foi a R$ 2,016, mesma mínima batida em 17 de setembro de 2012 e a menor desde 14 de setembro (R$ 2,009).
    Com o anúncio da operação, o BC contraria a expectativa majoritária de que não faria a rolagem dos papéis e reforça avaliações de que quer um dólar mais barato para suavizar pressões inflacionárias.
    Dólar vira e passa a cair

  • #234768

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    Well the dollar did take a plunge today, so much so that the chart I usually check had to change their scale.

  • #234771

    doctorlili
    Member

    Dang! 1.996 right now. This is unreal! The C.B. just needs to dream out loud about a 1.85 rate and boom it realizes? This is all a sham. I don’t believe it.

  • #234776

    scotty447
    Member

    My guess is dollar will be slightly stronger this year compared to 2012.
    2.00- 2.30 range.

  • #234781

    doctorlili
    Member

    Hm, I’m not so sure.
    I don’t believe the parallel market would push the dollar up. If I can buy 1 USD for R$ 1.85 at the central bank, why would I go to a Doleiro and get it for 2.10? That wouldn’t make sense. The only place where this works is when the centralized government also limits the supply of foreign currency, then you have a black market for it with higher value. But that is not the case in Brazil, in Venezuela perhaps, but not in Brazil.
    So, it’s going to be tough for the USD to climb. Only if everyone was to sell BRL now to take profits. But if Brazilians have less money now because they spend more on rice and beans, why would they sell their BRL?
    Squiddie2013-01-28 22:29:03

  • #234782

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Squiddie] Hm, I’m not so sure.I don’t believe the parallel market would push the dollar up. If I can buy 1 USD for R$ 1.85¬†at the central bank, why would I go to a Doleiro and get it for 2.10? That wouldn’t make sense. The only place where this works is when the centralized government also limits the supply of foreign currency, then you have a black market for it with higher value. But that is not the case in Brazil, in Venezuela perhaps, but not in Brazil.So, it’s going to be tough for the USD to climb. Only if everyone was to sell BRL now to take profits. But if Brazilians have less money now because they spend more on rice and beans, why would they sell their BRL?
    [/QUOTE]
    You cannot buy the dollar at 1.85 at the Central Bank. Check out the dollar turismo cambio at about 2.10
    You sell the dollar at 2.10 and buy at 2.20 at the doleiro. Why? Easy, fast, no limit, and you know the Real is set up to collapse.
    The commercial rate you see at about 2.0 sets the atm withdrawals and spot market cash bank transfers etc…

  • #234789

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]and you know the Real is set up to collapse.[/QUOTE]
    There is no way out.
    “Se correr o bicho pega, se ficar o bicho come.”
    A weak Real is good for the country, industry, growth,.
    But will cause inflation, the end of cheap imported products, cheap traveling abroad.
    Will increase fuel (importing expensive (in US$ vs R$)gasoline prices and selling it cheap on the brazilian market. Hugh losses for Petrobras.
    It will make living worse for Brazilians, not good for the 2014 elections.
    A strong real, gives Brazilians buying power, (temporary) happiness. But will f.ck-up the country.
    But, its good for votes.
    Since 2009 Brazilian government has injected hundreds of billlions in the economy, just to keep the economy going (= incentivating debt and buying).
    They have thrown this money away. Didn’t spend in infrastructure, education, healthcare.
    This “PAC” turned out an expensive joke.
    It was a lost decade.
    Brazilian economy is in a cancer stage, but the government is giving asperine.
    So whatever they do, the bubble will burst.
    And it comes to a point that the government is not abble to stabilize the dollar anymore, buying or selling.
    Brazil has lost confidence on the markets.

  • #234791

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=Squiddie] If I can buy 1 USD for R$ 1.85 at the central bank, why would I go to a Doleiro and get it for 2.10? [/QUOTE]
    Can you ?
    If you want to change R$ 10 million today, you arrange it at the Central Bank ?
    If we all together want to change R$ 100 billion today because we lost confidence, Central Bank will allow it ?
    This kind of rush I have seen before in Brazil.
    The same day laws will change, some “Medida Provisoria”.
    The only way to get your money out or change for strong currency will be with the help of your doleiro.
    History is repeating, its clear to see.
    Oh yes, yesterday.
    The Central Bank sold hugh amounts of US$ on the market to manipulate the market.
    oil&gas2013-01-29 04:55:13

  • #234796

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]
    It was a lost decade.
    Brazilian economy is in a cancer stage, but the government is giving asperine.
    So whatever they do, the bubble will burst.
    And it comes to a point that the government is not able to stabilize the dollar anymore, buying or selling.
    Brazil has lost confidence on the markets.[/QUOTE]
    Perhaps it’s time to re-issue the Cruzeiro?!? Confused

    Was anyone here when the Real was released? ‘Gator’, you were, right? How’d they go about the exchange??? Was it overnight, or gradual?
    Gringo.Floripa2013-01-29 05:05:57

  • #234798

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] Was anyone here when the Real was released?¬† ‘Gator’, you were, right?¬† How’d they go about the exchange???¬† Was it overnight, or gradual?
    [/QUOTE]
    When I came here we had the Cruzeiro, after that the Cruzado (Plano Cruzado Sarney + Dilson Funaro), Cruzado Novo etc.
    The change from “Cruzeiro Real” to Real wasn’t imediatly.
    That is, it was, but it wasn’t.
    It took some 3 or 4 months.
    Between both we used the URV – Unidade Real de Valor – for prices, salaries etc.
    A factor/indice, not money.
    The REAL was and is the most unbelievable economic succes I have seen in Brazil.
    The PT party did every thing possible to sabotage and ruin the Real plan.
    They are government now thanks to the Real.

  • #234799

    tech-spec
    Member

    The value of the URV changed every day.
    Prices were in CR$ but also in URV.
    So, prices in CR$ came up every day (or twice a day in the supermarket) but they mentioned also the quantity of URV’s.
    CR$ went up, but if the URV was stable, even after a week or month, we could understand that the price was stable, Because our salries also went up in URV.
    I earn “X” URV a month, last month a beer was “Y” URV, and today still “Y” URV (but 1,5 x in CR$), I knew I wasn’t loosing money.
    So finaly we had something that showed us real value of something during these months.oil&gas2013-01-29 06:18:20

  • #234805

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    Yes, I used Cruzeiros (Novos), Cruzados, Cruzados Novos, Cruzeiros Reais, and then the Real in 1994. Sometimes the transitions involved rubber stamping zeros on the old notes. As long as your income wasn’t tied to the currency, the use of ‘funny money’ made life a little comical.
    Thank FHC for the Real and it’s stability.
    jacare2013-01-29 07:27:06

  • #234806

    [QUOTE=jacare]
    Thank FHC for the Real and it’s stability.[/QUOTE]
    I’m sure most of you guys have read it, but if not, The Accidental President (of Brasil) is a good read. Thumbs%20Up
    Not to be confused with TheAccidental President(of the EUA): How 413 lawyers and 9 Supreme Court justices landed Duh-bah in the Casa Branca! Thumbs%20Down

  • #234809

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=jacare]Thank FHC for the Real and it’s stability.[/QUOTE]I’m sure most of you guys have read it, but if not, The Accidental President (of Brasil) is a good read.¬† Thumbs%20UpNot to be confused with TheAccidental President(of the EUA): How 413 lawyers and 9 Supreme Court justices landed Duh-bah in the Casa Branca!¬† Thumbs%20Down[/QUOTE]
    +1 on the book recommendation.
    I read this as soon as I arrived here and re-read it two years in. It helped me understand Brazil a little more and it is interesting what I picked up on during the re-read after actually having lived here for a bit.
    Now that I am almost 5 years in, maybe it is time to re-visit it again.

  • #234810

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    The story about how an economist and his buddies tricked the people of Brazil into saving the country from rampant inflation. They had a crazy, unlikely plan, and it worked.

    Twenty years ago, Brazil’s inflation rate hit 80 percent per month. At that rate, if eggs cost $1 one day, they’ll cost $2 a month later. If it keeps up for a year, they’ll cost $1,000.

    In practice, this meant stores had to change their prices every day. The guy in the grocery store would walk the aisles putting new price stickers on the food. Shoppers would run ahead of him, so they could buy their food at the previous day’s price.

    The problem went back to the 1950s, when the government printed money to build a new capital in Brasilia. By the 1980s, the inflation pattern was in place.

    It went something like this:

    1. New President comes in with a new plan.
    2. President freezes prices and/or bank accounts.
    3. President fails.
    4. President gets voted out or impeached.
    5. Repeat.

    The plans succeeded at only one thing: Convincing every Brazilian the government was helpless to control inflation.

    There was one more option that no one knew about. It was dreamed up by four guys at the Catholic University in Rio. The only reason they enter the picture now — or ever — is because in 1992, there happened to be a new finance minister who knew nothing about economics. So the minister called Edmar Bacha, the economist who is the hero of our story.

    “He said, ‘Well, I’ve just been named the finance minister. You know I don’t know economics, so please come to meet me in Brasilia tomorrow,’ ” Bacha recalls. “I was terrified.”

    Bacha had been waiting for decades for this call.

    He and three friends had been studying Brazilian inflation since they were graduate students ‚Äî four guys at the campus bar complaining to each other about how no one else knew how to fix this. And now they were being told “Fine, do it your way.”

    Bacha was invited to meet the president.

    “I asked for an autograph for my kids,” Bacha says. So the president wrote Bacha’s kids a note that said, “Please tell your father to work fast for the benefit of the country.”

    The four friends set about explaining their idea. You have to slow down the creation of money, they explained. But, just as important, you have to stabilize people’s faith in money itself. People have to be tricked into thinking money will hold its value.

    The four economists wanted to create a new currency that was stable, dependable and trustworthy. The only catch: This currency would not be real. No coins, no bills. It was fake.

    “We called it a Unit of Real Value ‚Äî URV,” Bacha says. “It was virtual; it didn’t exist in fact.”

    People would still have and use the existing currency, the cruzeiro. But everything would be listed in URVs, the fake currency. Their wages would be listed in URVs. Taxes were in URVs. All prices were listed in URVs. And URVs were kept stable — what changed was how many cruzeiros each URV was worth.

    Say, for example, that milk costs 1 URV. On a given day, 1 URV might be worth 10 cruzeiros. A month later, milk would still cost 1 URV. But that 1 URV might be worth 20 cruzeiros.

    The idea was that people would start thinking in URVs — and stop expecting prices to always go up.

    “We didn’t understand what it was,” says Maria Leopoldina Bierrenbach, a housewife from Sao Paulo. “I used to say it was a fantasy, because it was not real.”

    Still, people used URVs. And after a few months, they began to see that prices in URVs were stable. Once that happened, Bacha and his buddies could declare that the virtual currency would become the country’s actual currency. It would be called the real.

    “Everyone is going to receive from now on their wages, and pay for all the prices, in the new currency, which is the real,” Bacha says. “That is the trick.”

    The day they launched the real, Bacha says, a journalist friend asked him, “Professor, do you swear that inflation will end tomorrow?”

    “Yes, I swear.” Bacha said.

    And, basically, inflation did end, and the country’s economy turned around. In the years that followed, Brazil became a major exporter, and 20 million people rose out of poverty.

    “We were in awe,” Bierrenbach says. “Everybody was very happy.”

    podcast – 7mins (?)
    pd.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/atc/2010/10/20101004_atc_12.mp3?dl=1

  • #234830

    ukbr
    Member

    Thank-you for the book recommendation, I was unaware of this book. I have been inout of here since 92 and though I went through the introduction of the Real I was unable to understand what really was going on at the time. However I remember well how overnight Brazil went from being the 4th worst in the world with inflation to having a dollar that was stronger than the USD…Angry(temporarily…8 mnths ?).
    …”In effect, competitive devaluations will ultimately workagainst the U.S. dollar. This will only add to the currency‚Äôsluster as the only haven in an uncertain world.“….
    For those as ignorant as me let me explain a few terms quickly that if you read the article in it’s entirety you would understand.
    “Competitive devaluations”refers to the weakening of home currencies other than the USD.
    Working against” means the dollar will strengthen as a result of non-US central banks actions.
    Good article, a macro overview, no targets identified.
    Brazil dealt with 1/2 through the article.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/dollar-thrives-in-age-of-competitive-devaluations.html
    Question: I am considering spending R$100k on a boat this year with the intention of selling it in 5-10 years for the same or greater in today’s equivalent USD.
    comments? (save the smart-ass stuff please, yahoo loves that crap).
    I have been thinking that from now to April we might see the greatest volatility weakness in the Real given the US issues yet to be resolved and the EU’s uncertain situation.
    Best to wait or strike with-in this period with a weak R$ vs USD ?
    Obviously none of us know, just opinions based on some evidence, I hope.

  • #234834

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    Dollar still dropping today. But I would not be inclined to attribute this wholly to any macro-trend. There are often end of the month shenanigans due to the futures markets. See here @ WSJ: Brazil’s Real Opens Slightly Stronger Ahead of Futures Expiry

  • #234839

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=Marcos989]I have been in/out of here since 92 and though I went through the introduction of the Real…[/QUOTE]
    Me, too. I remember the first time we actually got to physically see a Real, and the first weeks of using the new money in the street.
    It was around mid-1994 and all the prices in the stores changed to R$. In the process of cutting off all the zeroes the prices went up quite a bit, too.
    I remember how paying for an hour of parking suddenly became R$1 at the Rio Sul shopping center. A week earlier (and indeed for most of the year till that date) it had been more or less the equivalent of half that.
    picolino2013-01-29 11:37:44

  • #234852

    ukbr
    Member

    The beginning exchange was R$1.00 : US$ 0.88 at least in the Cambio’s as I recall.
    Total BS.

  • #234861

    [QUOTE=Marcos989]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/dollar-thrives-in-age-of-competitive-devaluations.html
    Question: I am considering spending R$100k on a boat this year with the intention of selling it in 5-10 years for the same or greater in today’s equivalent USD.
    comments? (save the smart-ass stuff please, yahoo loves that crap).
    I have been thinking that from now to April we might see the greatest volatility weakness in the Real given the US issues yet to be resolved and the EU’s uncertain situation.
    Best to wait or strike with-in this period with a weak R$ vs USD ?
    Obviously none of us know, just opinions based on some evidence, I hope.[/QUOTE]
    GREAT article about ‘competitive devaluations’!
    I think the ‘evidence’ is everywhere, but rather than being black and white on one market/nation, it’s in various nuances/shades/degrees around the globe. Things are purposely being kept gray. IMO it’s ‘evident’ that a perfect storm is forming. Not here yet, and to what category of storm it turns out to be remains to be seen. But if one is to reek havoc worse than 2008, it will certainly make landfall waaay before five years from now. Between now and April is a good possibility. Yet who really knows?
    It’s just a question of how much longer governments and central banks can keep shifting pieces around on the chess board, avoiding the inevitable. Eventually, something will happen somewhere which will cause investors to panic, and then there will be the window of opportunity in the forex, but it won’t be open for long. Ninety days, perhaps six months.
    As for ten years from now… we’ll have learned Mandarin by then. LOL
    BTW, parabenson the upcoming purchase of the boat Marcos! It will be the happiest day of your life. The day you sell it, will be the second happiest day.
    Sorry… I couldn’t resist. Wink
    Gringo.Floripa2013-01-29 13:59:38

  • #234862

    tech-spec
    Member

    In the supermarkets, half the people were employees, putting new prices on the products.
    They started at one side of the store, remarked all prices, went to the other end of store to finish, and then they went back to put “newer” new prices.
    A mad house.
    We all were used ot violent economic plans, taking our savings away, freezing our income, higher taxes…
    The Real plan was smooth, perfect from the first day on.
    Only Lula and his party did every thing to ruin it.
    There are good videos on YouTube about it.
    FHC elege-se presidente
    15 anos do Plano Real
    FHC explica o plano
    And more, also videos about that stupid Sarney “Cruzado” plan and Collors even more stupid “Plano Collor”.

  • #234864

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    It’s just a question of how much longer governments and central banks can keep shifting pieces around on the chess board, avoiding the inevitable.¬†[/QUOTE]
    In 1914 one single bullet changed the world.
    Now it’s balancing, just one small thing can make the first Domino tile fall.
    What ?
    Who knows, it will be a “never thought that could happen” thing.
    Some war between … (Japan vs China look Veja this week), Kim Il Something in Korea playing with fire, the vulcano in yellowstone, a hurricane in (NE) Brazil, Hugo Chavez or some tiny event, what ever.
    It will not be a snowball but Domino tiles, a few hours panic and crash.
    Or not.

  • #234887

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]It will not be a snowball but Domino tiles, a few hours panic and crash.
    Or not.[/QUOTE]
    Godzilla destroys NYC, starting with Goldman Sachs. Wink

  • #234903

    tech-spec
    Member

    In the high inflation times, every now and then there was a sometimes hugh raise in fuel prices.
    Petrobras always announced it the night before.
    Then there was a race to the gasstations to fill up your tank with old price fuel.
    Like tonight.
    Our tanks are almost empty, and I think I go to top them up and have a beer at the nearby gassatation. Can save me some R$ 20 or more.
    Good old times are coming back.

  • #234925

    miguel
    Participant

    First set foot in Brazil during the Cruzado Plan, in 1986.
    One of those instances of lopping of three zeroes. In this case, the Cruzado substituting the Cruzeiro.
    Innumerable distortions with the generalized price freeze. No frenzied supermarket price sticker personnel in this case. Instead fiscais of the povao, citizen-vigilantes who duly patrolled the supermarkets and other stores (with proudly worn”Fiscal de Sarney” buttons to boot!) to ensure that there were no illegal price hikes.
    Huge traffic jams as folks rushed to buy big-ticket items like vehicles before the next pacote and associated price hike and maxi devalution.
    miguel2013-01-29 19:19:36

  • #234944

    tech-spec
    Member

    Folha de Sao Paulo today:
    [quote]Considerado um dos mais experientes conhecedores do mercado de câmbio, o economista Sidnei Moura Nehme, acha que o BC poderá ter sucesso na tentativa de apreciar o real, mas por pouco tempo.
    Nehme, diretor-executivo da NGO Corretora de Câmbio, acredita que a moeda brasileira voltará a se desvalorizar, a reboque da saída de investidores do país.
    Para ele, sem intervenção, o dólar tenderia a caminhar para R$ 2,30 no fim do ano. Mas sua aposta é que a autoridade monetária lançará mão de reservas cambiais e conseguirá manter a cotação entre R$ 2,10 e R$ 2,15.
    [/quote]
    Real deverá se desvalorizar, afirma especialista

  • #234959

    doctorlili
    Member

    Good article. Confirming to me how the BRL forex “market” is a sham in the hands of basically dictators. No free exchange means no real exchange rate. I’m going to call it the “irreal”.Squiddie2013-01-30 07:26:07

  • #234988

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]Folha de Sao Paulo today: sem intervenção, o dólar tenderia a caminhar para R$ 2,30 no fim do ano. Mas sua aposta é que a autoridade monetária lançará mão de reservas cambiais e conseguirá manter a cotação entre R$ 2,10 e R$ 2,15.[/QUOTE]
    The board members of BACEN obviously have a few more parcelas to pay on their Miami RE purchases. LOL
    This is from October 2012 (article in FT), where Mantega admits they are operating a ‘dirty float’. Me thinks (amateur that I am), in the end, this policy will bite them in the bunda! A form of financial ‘blowback’….
    October 24, 2012 10:23 pm
    By Joe Leahy in São Paulo
    Brazil admits tight hold over exchange rate
    Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, has admitted the government is closely controlling the level of its exchange rate, breaking with an earlier policy of allowing the market to determine the optimal level of its currency, the real.
    Brazil is operating a dirty float, in which it allows the currency to move within a tight band that economists estimate at about R$2-R$2.10 to the dollar, a practice common in other emerging markets, such as Colombia or China.
    For us the ideal is a floating currency, without manipulation, Mr Mantega said in an interview with Valor Econômico, the Brazilian business newspaper. But if the whole world is going to manipulate their exchange rates, we will too.
    The tight control over its exchange rate marks a new phase in what Brazil has called the currency war, in which it has accused its trading partners of deliberately weakening their currencies to make their exports more competitive.
    Brazil was alarmed last year when its exchange rate approached R$1.50 to the dollar, a level nearly 40 per cent stronger than two years earlier as foreign investors flocked to the country to take advantage of its strong economy and high interest rates.
    The government launched a range of currency controls to try to curb foreign inflows, amid concern that the strong currency was hurting Brazilian industry’s ability to compete on export markets and with imports.
    But the economy began weakening sharply last year, with growth falling from 7.5 per cent in 2010 to 2.7 per cent last year and with only 1.5 per cent expected this year.
    This, coupled with a sharp decline in interest rates to a historic low, eased the pressure on the currency as international investors began looking elsewhere for high returns.
    The end of the appreciation pressure earlier this year gave the government an opportunity to fix the currency at a level it regarded as better for industry.
    Our system is a dirty float, like everyone’s, said Mr Mantega.
    We could not sit there watching others appropriating our market and ruining our industry, he said.
    But economists said the weakening of Brazil’s currency had only won industry a partial reprieve.
    The real remained about 20 per cent overvalued in real terms in spite of a 20 per cent depreciation from its recent highs, said David Rees, economist at Capital Economics in London.
    Meanwhile, the economy had been slow to respond to the supposed stimulus provided by the weaker exchange rate, with growth continuing to be sluggish in the first half of this year.
    It’s pretty obvious that a line has been drawn in the sand at about R$2 to the dollar for some time, said Mr Rees. But he said what was more doubtful was the extent of the benefits of the policy.Since Brazil has been intervening to hold the currency at R$2 the economy has still been struggling.
    Link (may require subscription to read): http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3185f656-1dfa-11e2-8e1d-00144feabdc0.html
    Gringo.Floripa2013-01-30 09:09:07

  • #234992

    ukbr
    Member

    Excellent article, thank’s for sharing translating.

  • #234994

    tech-spec
    Member
  • #235012

    doctorlili
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]For us the ideal is a floating currency, without manipulation, Mr Mantega said in an interview with Valor Econômico, the Brazilian business newspaper. But if the whole world is going to manipulate their exchange rates, we will too.
    The tight control over its exchange rate marks a new phase in what Brazil has called the currency war, in which it has accused its trading partners of deliberately weakening their currencies to make their exports more competitive.[/QUOTE]
    This doesn’t make any sense to me. I’m sorry I find that article completely counter-intuitive (and a bit late, the 1.50 issue it talks about was early last year. We are now at the question why this irreal didn’t go past 2.15 where it was briefly end of 2012??
    If there was a currency war, there would be no problem for the Real to devalue as well. With these specifically Brazilian inflation pressures and lowered interest rates, the BRL had nowhere to go but down. But they are actually manipulating it upwards. It’s a sham, the irreal is being fixed by politicians wherever they want to in the complete absence of an actual market. I suppose if you have any excess BRL, turn them into USDs now, should be great for stimulating imports Tongue.
    For me it means I hold out. Just crap that my temporada rentals are not making money, I might have to give another small capital injection. I wanted to at least live from the Brazilian money during my visits.

  • #235042

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]Just crap that my temporada rentals are not making money, I might have to give another small capital injection. I wanted to at least live from the Brazilian money during my visits.[/QUOTE]
    If one is looking to live in Brasil, off the rental income earned in Brasil as a ‘Real Estate Czar’, then the forex is irrelevant. As Esprit previously noted, the exchange rate for the BRL with the USD/EUR/GBP etc, is primarily of interest for those who might be interested in using outside funds to become RE Czars themselves… or maybe purchase a boat, car, or even just wanting to fluff up their expat pillow.
    There are also those (still a minority, I think), who are hoping for a return to 1.50 territory, so they can pull the jettison handle, and say buh-bye to Ordem e Progresso.
    Gringo.Floripa2013-01-30 16:44:25

  • #235047

    jeb2886
    Member

    Well, over the last few years, the Real has gained some decent ground most years, with a few hiccups along the way but always recovering and going lower. However, this doesn’t show the entire side of the story. With a 10% inflation rate, the currency should be losing ground rapidy against most other currencies, yet it’s had gains for most of the last decade. Which shows pretty aggressive growth.
    If the currency doesn’t have growth, then that will be compounding the problem of inflation on currency. Inflation alone will eat away nearly 10% a year, if there is any negative growth, that will be compounded on there as well.
    We could see 2.25 to 2.40 this year assuming a pretty stable year for brazil over all.

  • #235051

    SecureMedsrx
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    There are also those (still a minority, I think), who are hoping for a return to 1.50 territory, so they can pull the jettison handle, and say buh-bye to Ordem e Progresso.
    [/QUOTE]
    Abso..bloody..lutely.. If it went back to 1.50 the jettison handle would be firmly pulled.LOL
    However I’m more than comfortable with it hovering around 2.00.Clap
    To be fair to our/my American friends even 2.50 is a crappy rate for you guys when you compared to what you get for any thing in the states.
    Your all mental to be here if you ask me LOL
    The GBP is back around 3.30 which is about right considering the rubbish economic situation back in the UK.

  • #235053

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    [QUOTE=Boycie]Your all mental to be here if you ask me LOL[/QUOTE]
    Agreed! But it never did make any sense … even when the minimum wage was US$50 …

  • #235084

    tech-spec
    Member

    FT – Beyondbrics today:
    [quote]Trying to understand what Guido Mantega is up to can be exhausting, especially when it comes to his favourite topic: currency wars.
    ……………………….
    ……………………….
    It seems there are three possible explanations behind the authorities mixed messages:
    1. They want a gradual appreciation of the real to curb inflation and Mantega’s warning was intended to moderate any sharp moves on the back of the central bank’s intervention
    2. They have decided the real is at the right level and are sending out contradictory signals to stabilise the currency
    3. They have no idea what they’re doing.[/quote]
    Confused about Brazil’s currency war? So are we !

    oil&gas2013-01-31 03:51:37

  • #235085

    tech-spec
    Member

    Folha de São Paulo today:
    [quote] FIESP – Roberto Giannetti da Fonseca:
    O dólar abaixo de R$ 2 começa a preocupar a indústria, embora o setor confie que o governo não permitirá maior apreciação do câmbio.
    Q) Qual é a taxa de câmbio adequada para o setor?
    A) Eu diria que entre R$ 2,20 e R$ 2,30 é um nível de conforto.Não prejudica tanto a importação e também ajuda a exportação, o nível do emprego, da capacidade industrial e do investimento, que fica mais atrativo, porque as empresas passam a ter escala e lucro. [/quote]
    Dólar baixo não eleva investimento, diz FIESP
    No.2
    oil&gas2013-01-31 03:58:44

  • #235086

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]FT – Beyondbrics today:
    Trying to understand what Guido Mantega is up to can be exhausting, especially when it comes to his favourite topic: currency wars.
    It seems there are three possible explanations behind the authorities mixed messages:
    3. They have no idea what they’re doing.
    [/QUOTE]
    +1

  • #235209

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa][QUOTE=oil&gas]FT – Beyondbrics today:
    Trying to understand what Guido Mantega is up to can be exhausting, especially when it comes to his favourite topic: currency wars.
    It seems there are three possible explanations behind the authorities mixed messages:
    3. They have no idea what they’re doing.
    [/QUOTE]
    +1
    [/QUOTE]
    Couldn’t agree more. The dynamic duplo of Mantega & Tombini come across as total buffoons. Zero credibility in the markets.

  • #235255

    tech-spec
    Member

    According to the Big Mac Index:
    Implied exchange Rate = R$ 2,58
    The Big Mac index

  • #235679

    tech-spec
    Member

    I think I will start with 1 male and 1 female.
    Making Whoopie, kids, kids making Who ……..
    Take this new family to some interior river and…I’m rich.
    Cientistas descobrem uma bactéria que ‘produz’ ouro em segundos

  • #235853

    Wasn’t sure where to post this, but with the link provided yesterday by O&G about creating gold from bacteria, this seemed like an appropriate thread. A friend sent me the youtube video below about Nióbio (Niobiumin english, a chemical element which used to be known as Columbium).
    Acorda Brasil!
    This is the first I’ve ever even heard of such a mineral/chemical, and it’s vital role in creating super-alloy steel components. The implications for the country that well over 90% of what exists on the entire planet is right here in Brasil is astonishing! Let’s hope the PT doesn’t phoda this up, like it did with PBR….

  • #235905

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Glad I sold my Petrobras stocks a long time ago, they got rocked yesterday in the markets (and for the last year…)

  • #235917

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=andrewfroboy] Glad I sold my Petrobras stocks a long time ago, they got rocked yesterday in the markets (and for the last year…)[/QUOTE]
    I sold long ago and might buy back if Graca Foster and Guido Mantega stop raping the company. Unlikely.

  • #235923

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=andrewfroboy] Glad I sold my Petrobras stocks a long time ago, they got rocked yesterday in the markets (and for the last year…)[/QUOTE]
    …but I’ve been thinking if it might be time to get back in…. The last time it got to 16, I bought and made some nice change in a few months.

  • #235932

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    I too was thinking a bit about buying back in, but I don’t know if I have the stomach for it

  • #237029

    Looks like no chance of 2.25, much less 3.0 anytime in the foreseeable future…. Cry

  • #237031

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] Looks like no chance of 2.25, much less 3.0 anytime in the foreseeable future….¬† Cry<div id=”disqus_title”><h1>Brazil Real Rises on View Bank Will Allow Gain to Curb Inflation</h1>
    [/QUOTE]
    That was last week’s thinking. Everything is down today, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the USDBRL is going up. I’m just wondering if Brazil is ever going to follow the lead of the other countries and start trashing their currency like Argentina and Venezuela have done.
    If they don’t go this way, it’s because (I bet) they like the FDI more.

  • #237033

    Isn’t the G20 meeting today and tomorrow? “Currency wars” is supposed to be one item on their agenda.

  • #237207

    jeb2886
    Member

    Hmm, well looks like the economy is probably going to be doing pretty well in the US, housing is going to take off this year. Probably lots of refinancing will take place, remodeling and the whole thing will take off.
    Which will probably push people out to Brazils higher ROI’s, because it should be less risky having the US on fire.
    We might see the Real making a comeback this year… Hm..

  • #237288

    Chatter mainly about the Yen. No mention of the Real. Unhappy

    G20 set to dilute big powers’ demands on currencies

    Gringo.Floripa2013-02-16 04:57:40

  • #237292

    doctorlili
    Member

    This is making me so mad. The “big mac” index and inflation shows the BRL is too expensive and yet they can just turn a knob and set the rate to what they please.

  • #237293

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]This is making me so mad. The “big mac” index and inflation shows the BRL is too expensive and yet they can just turn a knob and set the rate to what they please.[/QUOTE]
    That is exactly right, and there is nothing you and I and anybody else can do about it.

  • #237735

    rkearns
    Member

    The REAL doesn’t count in terms of currencies. The YEN has been a major tear for the past couple of months so I can imagine that it was part of the discussion.

  • #238750

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]
    International investors have seen capital controls in Brazil as indicating an anti-investor bias of the country, an increase in policy uncertainty in the future, a government that does not know what to do, or a lack of stability in economic policy. [/quote]
    FT РBrazil’s self-imposed sudden stop

  • #238765

    Kathy2012
    Participant

    [QUOTE=oil&gas] [quote]
    International investors have seen capital controls in Brazil as indicating an anti-investor bias of the country, an increase in policy uncertainty in the future, a government that does not know what to do, or a lack of stability in economic policy. [/quote]
    FT РBrazil’s self-imposed sudden stop[/QUOTE]
    If they’re pissing off bankers, I’m inclined to think they’re doing exactly the right thing.

  • #238773

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=oil&gas][quote]
    International investors have seen capital controls in Brazil as indicating an anti-investor bias of the country, an increase in policy uncertainty in the future, a government that does not know what to do, or a lack of stability in economic policy. [/quote]
    FT РBrazil’s self-imposed sudden stop[/QUOTE]

    Beyond the waffle and pontificating econospeak babble that sells by thecolumn inch; all of which is hindsight expertise and about as useful as a chocolateteapot, I am tempted to suggest that we should execute all economists and theneat their clothes. This collective of twats in suits are conjoined with the politicalopportunists that are permanently behind the learning curve; a collective that isresponsible in large part for the global meltdown and the irreparable damage tocurrencies and in turn, more importantly, people’s lives. In certain ways they exemplify the Brazilian culturalcondition: they act and think this way in the faultless logic because they actand think this way.

    Aside from what may be regarded for some as, the good ol days, just priorto the big crash in the derivatives bunga bunga orgy, the economists and the banksterstogether with the credit agencies were partying like the falling man; guiltless,weightless in conscience and so far so good.

    As to the FT article in mention, I would take a more simplistic view andsuggest the reason why the Real appreciated so much was because of the rather largedisparity in global interest rates. As we have learned to our cost, the brillianceof the first world economist’s, save your ass advice, was to reduce interestrates to as close to zero as possible thereby reducing the cost of the new debtnecessary to repay the old debt.

    Meanwhile Brazil’s very high interest rate tempted, nymph-like, as theancient sailor’s siren. The sweet irony of the illustrious group of musicians,appropriately named, Dire Straits and their classic, Money for nothing’became Wall Street’s anthem for borrowing cheap cash to earn non-productiveinterest from Brazil’s economy. This massive influx of cash was mistaken forlegitimate investment and, in consequence, overvalued the fragile Braziliancurrency and decimated its export market. Meanwhile, wide-eyed and deliriousand somewhat baffled, Brazilians marvelled at their own success. With equalsurprise to that of the mayor of Hiroshima on July 6th1945, itseemed that through the virtues of order and progress, the future had suddenlyarrived unannounced. Of course this illusion was short-lived and clumsypoliticians, aided and abetted by our favourite people, the economists, thoughtto introduce certain money moving controls while reducing interests rates to foilthe international parasite’s evil plan. Of course they forgot that interestrates are a prime control valve of inflation and credit supply. What has ensuedis a massive increase in inflation, a property value bubble and now the millionsthat were lifted out of poverty to join the middle class have acquired a newkind of poverty in the slavery of debt. Monty Python is alive and well andliving in Brazil.

  • #238780

    [QUOTE=Esprit]and now the millionsthat were lifted out of poverty to join the middle class have acquired a newkind of poverty in the slavery of debt.[/QUOTE]
    I keep having deju-vu here, of the US back in 2002 or so. Once “last call” is announced at the conclusion of the 2016 party in Rio, look out for the hangover that will follow!
    @BossaNova: “twats in suits”…. LOL

  • #239142

    Deleted User
    Moderator
  • #239146

    lynchem
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    As I was saying… http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21630930

    [/QUOTE]
    Some of us enjoy living off the 10% annuities. Above all other things, I’m almost certain you’re probably in a similar position of fiscal sustainability.
    Ergo, why bother worrying about the tide coming in and out when you’re like the unsinkable?

  • #239181
  • #239183

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Point
    [QUOTE=Esprit]As I was saying… http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21630930[/QUOTE]
    Counter-point
    …mas economia já está acelerando, diz MantegaLOL
    [/QUOTE]

    Taking his cue fromLast Tango in Paris, Mantega is using Manteiga as a lubricant.

  • #239200

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]Brazil will grow by 3 to 4 per cent in 2013! And that’s on the authority of Guido Mantega, finance minister, aka Guido the Forecaster, so it must be true.
    [/quote]
    Guido Mantega’s broken record.

  • #239224

    Found this article in the sidebar of the link Oil&Gas provided.
    Blocless Brasil
    Most memorable line: “One tonne of Brazilian exports to China is worth about $200. One tonne of Chinese exports to Brazil is worth more than $2,000.”
    Gringo.Floripa2013-03-02 05:54:35

  • #239249

    rkearns
    Member

    [QUOTE=Leblon] [QUOTE=Esprit]

    As I was saying… http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21630930

    [/QUOTE]
    Some of us enjoy living off the 10% annuities. Above all other things, I’m almost certain you’re probably in a similar position of fiscal sustainability.
    Ergo, why bother worrying about the tide coming in and out when you’re like the unsinkable?
    [/QUOTE]
    10% isn’t bad.. maybe.. if the currency isn’t getting inflated to death. Errg.. never trust politicians with money.

  • #239487

    doctorlili
    Member

    <rant> BRL still not slipping back down to 2. WTF! </rant>

  • #239489

    jeb2886
    Member

    The market is on fire, and people are looking for the best deals and returns, and many of those are in Brazil so money is probably pouring in right now.

  • #239493

    doctorlili
    Member

    Which market is on fire? How did that suddenly happen? What was the big change? Last time I checked here a month or 2 ago, it seemed that inflation was creeping up on the country. What changed?

  • #239582

    rkearns
    Member

    [QUOTE=Squiddie] Which market is on fire? How did that suddenly happen? What was the big change? Last time I checked here a month or 2 ago, it seemed that inflation was creeping up on the country. What changed?[/QUOTE]
    ha, when has inflation ever stopped? In Brazil, as long as they keep ratcheting up the minimum wage <and Brazilians trying to make a juicy profit>, we’ll have inflation. Oh, let’s not forget politicians voting themselves enormous pay increases every year.
    Ask anyone anywhere in the world if they feel that they see a REAL return on the taxes that they pay. I’ll bet most people will say no.

  • #239632

    doctorlili
    Member

    OK, I suppose the economy can heat up and overheated may mean inflation. But why suddenly foreigners going back long into BRL if they had it mostly depressed last year? What has really changed about Brazilian economy? I can see nothing but a declared change in desired exchange rate band. The currency moves by decree of the central government. It’s so fishy.
    As far as taxes, I still don’t quite believe in this complaint. For all I can tell the income tax rate is very low in Brazil. Sales taxes are an issue, but does it come as high as Germany or Sweden? They do finance a universal health care system with it, so that counts for something.
    Waste happens everywhere. In the US, half of my tax money go into stupid wars and war-gadget R&D and purchases by the military. I am not happy about that. Politicians’ pay and pension is always a big boo-ha-ha everywhere, but when you look at bottom line figures, its not where the waste is. It’s about as big an issue as Romney wanting to fire Big Bird to implement governmental budget cuts. One should focus on the big ticket items. Not saying that waste is not happening around federal contracting deals, that’s where it usually happens, in the US. Just take the joint strike fighter and other big-boy-toy-ware-money-buring-machines.

  • #239653

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Problem is taxes with no results. You can hate what the US does with tax dollars but the tax burden is much lower and as much as I personally think our military/wars are immoral they do bring a heck of a lot more wealth to the country than Brazilian corruption.

  • #239655

    jeb2886
    Member

    The reason the US taking off effects Brazil is that when the US sneezes the world catches a cold syndrome. The US is taking off, so in all likelihood they will pull up the rest of the world for a half decent year. Everything will pick up.
    Now when the US picks up, it means a good 7% return year, but countries like Brazil will produce much better than that. So they jump over there. However, when bad things happen, the beta is equally strong in the other direction. If the US loses 7%, you know Brazil will lose a lot more.
    So people are running from the US during good times to find better returns, because in theory, everyone should do better.

  • #240735

    Off Topic, my apologies. Yet since there seems to be a few members on here, who have a some financial acumen much more advanced than my limited knowledge and abilities, I’m just going to throw this out there. I have a CDB here in Brasil that is soon to mature. Was very happy of course, when it was earning double digit interest. And even now, the rate is certainly much better than what banks in the US are paying.
    The CDB is with HSBC, and I think it was Finrudd who commented in another thread not too long ago, on how they’re always trying to get you to sign up for their latest investment-du-jour. I have some assets, outside of the country, in moderate risk investments, but not interested in allocating any assets within Brasil towards anything other than very conservative. And no funds please.
    I was told about something called an LTI, which is ‘similar’ to a CDB, but pays slightly higher interest. The money allocated to an LTI is then loaned out specifically for mortgages, and only that. And since the gov’t seems to be pushing home ownership (and the associated consumerism that comes with it), there isn’t an imposto de renda to be paid on your earnings, when you close it out. This is certainly appealing!
    There are two options: ‘com liquidez’, meaning you have access to the funds at anytime, and ‘sem liquidez’, no access until after one year. The no access option pays but a smidgen more interest, so IMO, not worth the lack of liquidity.
    My concern is, which I will address with my account manager next trip, but want some additional insight beforehand, is what happens if people begin to default on their mortgage payments?!? Is this LTI really any different from an MBS (Mortgage Backed Security), thus edging into the territory of a derivative?!? We all know the end of the story of how those investment vehicles played out in the US. Well, not quite ‘the end’ of the story. not yet.
    Has anyone invested in one of these LTIs, or know anything more than what I’ve presented here? Any/all educated and informed comments welcome.
    EDIT: I’d been searching all evening for some info on-line about an ‘LTI’, and came up empty-handed.
    Just now found this: Os possíveis cenários para o crédito imobiliáriobrasileiro
    Gringo.Floripa2013-03-11 21:02:06

  • #241049

    agri2001
    Participant

    You Yanks better get your money out of the USA real fast as the CIA is now getting involved in tracking your money.
    I bet this will not make Troll hunter very happy.
    http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-obama-administration-let-spy-agencies-scour-americans-184047547.html

  • #241067

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Off Topic, my apologies.¬† Yet since there seems to be a few members on here, who have a some financial acumen much more advanced than my limited knowledge and abilities, I’m just going to throw this out there.¬† I have a CDB here in Brasil that is soon to mature.¬† Was very happy of course, when it was earning double digit interest.¬† And even now, the rate is certainly much better than what banks in the US are paying.The CDB is with HSBC, and I think it was Finrudd who commented in another thread not too long ago, on how they’re always trying to get you to sign up for their latest investment-du-jour.¬† I have some assets, outside of the country, in moderate risk investments, but not interested in allocating any assets within Brasil towards anything other than very conservative.¬† And no funds please.I was told about something called an LTI, which is ‘similar’ to a CDB, but pays slightly higher interest.¬† The money allocated to an LTI is then loaned out specifically for mortgages, and only that.¬† And since the gov’t seems to be pushing home ownership (and the associated consumerism that comes with it), there isn’t an imposto de renda to be paid on your earnings, when you close it out.¬† This is certainly appealing!There are two options: ‘com liquidez’, meaning you have access to the funds at anytime, and ‘sem liquidez’, no access until after one year.¬† The no access option pays but a smidgen more interest, so IMO, not worth the lack of liquidity.My concern is, which I will address with my account manager next trip, but want some additional insight beforehand, is what happens if people begin to default on their mortgage payments?!?¬† Is this LTI really any different from an MBS (Mortgage Backed Security), thus edging into the territory of a derivative?!?¬† We all know the end of the story of how those investment vehicles played out in the US.¬† Well, not quite ‘the end’ of the story. not yet.Has anyone invested in one of these LTIs, or know anything more than what I’ve presented here?¬† Any/all educated and informed comments welcome.EDIT:¬† I’d been searching all evening for some info on-line about an ‘LTI’, and came up empty-handed.Just now found this:¬† <font style=”font-size:16px;” color=”#333333″ face=”Arial”>Os possíveis cenários para o crédito imobiliário<font style=”font-size:16px;” color=”#333333″ face=”Arial”>brasileiro
    [/QUOTE]
    I heard of these things. They are pretty steep to get into, too rich for my blood so I never entered. Let us know what you dig up.

  • #241165

    [QUOTE=agri2001]You Yanks better get your money out of the USA real fast as the CIA is now getting involved in tracking your money.
    I bet this will not make Troll hunter very happy.
    http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-obama-administration-let-spy-agencies-scour-americans-184047547.html%5B/QUOTE%5D
    I don’t know about TH, but reading merdalike this doesn’t make me jump for joy, that’s for sure! Yeah, yeah, I know dear ol’Shrub assured us that we had nothing to fear if we had nothing to hide. But with the ‘changes’ since Sept 2001 of presumed guilt until proven innocent (if you’re lucky enough to even get talk to an attorney, much less be given a trial to determine innocence or guilt), there’s going to be a lot of innocent fish caught in these financing ‘taoists’ dragnets!
    @Paulistano, and whoever might have interest, regarding the other issue, I had the letters wrong… it’s LCI not LTI. One letter made quite a difference in what I could learn via google. Some links below. Yeah, the entry threshold is higher than a CDB (although the some of the articles state a 1,000 reais investment is possible). The no imposto de renda to pay is definitely the attractiveness of this vehicle! From what I’ve read (below), LCIs are considered ‘safe’ and low risk. Hmmmm…. I figure I’ll do one for a year.
    I doubt the RE market here will go belly up in that time. Confused
    http://carodinheiro.blogfolha.uol.com.br/2012/09/18/instrumentos-financeiros-no1-letra-de-credito-imobiliario-lci/
    http://clubehouse.com.br/noticias/mercado-imobiliario-investimento-imoveis-papeis-lci/
    http://dinheiro.br.msn.com/guias/lci-isenta-de-ir-aplica%C3%A7%C3%A3o-atrai-investidores-em-busca-de-maior-rentabilidade
    http://www.infomoney.com.br/onde-investir/noticia/635110/lci-conheca-mais-sobre-investimento-letras-credito-imobiliario
    Now if we can just get the forex up to at least 2.50, and bring the cows home, the intelligence spooks will have nothing to snoop into! LOL
    Gringo.Floripa2013-03-14 15:51:56

  • #241191

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=agri2001]You Yanks better get your money out of the USA real fast as the CIA is now getting involved in tracking your money.
    I bet this will not make Troll hunter very happy.
    http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-obama-administration-let-spy-agencies-scour-americans-184047547.html%5B/QUOTE%5DI don’t know about TH, but reading merdalike this doesn’t make me jump for joy, that’s for sure!¬† Yeah, yeah, I know dear ol’Shrub assured us that we had nothing to fear if we had nothing to hide.¬† But with the ‘changes’ since Sept 2001 of presumed guilt until proven innocent (if you’re lucky enough to even get talk to an attorney, much less be given a trial to determine innocence or guilt), there’s going to be a lot of innocent fish caught in these financing ‘taoists’ dragnets!@Paulistano, and whoever might have interest, regarding the other issue, I had the letters wrong… it’s LCI not LTI.¬† One letter made quite a difference in what I could learn via google.¬† Some links below.¬† Yeah, the entry threshold is higher than a CDB (although the some of the articles state a 1,000 reais investment is possible). The no imposto de renda to pay is definitely the attractiveness of this vehicle!¬† From what I’ve read (below), LCIs are considered ‘safe’ and low risk.¬† Hmmmm….¬† I figure I’ll do one for a year.I doubt the RE market here will go belly up in that time.¬† Confusedhttp://carodinheiro.blogfolha.uol.com.br/2012/09/18/instrumentos-financeiros-no1-letra-de-credito-imobiliario-lci/http://clubehouse.com.br/noticias/mercado-imobiliario-investimento-imoveis-papeis-lci/http://dinheiro.br.msn.com/guias/lci-isenta-de-ir-aplica%C3%A7%C3%A3o-atrai-investidores-em-busca-de-maior-rentabilidadehttp://www.infomoney.com.br/onde-investir/noticia/635110/lci-conheca-mais-sobre-investimento-letras-credito-imobiliarioNow if we can just get the forex up to at least 2.50, and bring the cows home, the intelligence spooks will have nothing to snoop into!¬† LOL
    [/QUOTE]
    I am not finding a date on this article but: http://www.infomoney.com.br/onde-investir/noticia/635110/lci-conheca-mais-sobre-investimento-letras-credito-imobiliario
    This one says you need $50,000 to get into the game. I only remember hearing about these things at an InfoMoney fair in São Paulo and the 50 grand figure seems about what I remember.
    Maybe they sliced the pie up even more to get more investors in the game?

  • #241192

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA]Maybe they sliced the pie up even more to get more investors in the game? [/QUOTE]
    I think it depends on the bank, which although they’re all banksters, are nonetheless the only entities I’d trust if investing in one of these.
    Did you find the InfoMoney fair in SP to be worthwhile? Is it held every year, and if so, when?

  • #241208

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA]Maybe they sliced the pie up even more to get more investors in the game? [/QUOTE]I think it depends on the bank, which although they’re all banksters, are nonetheless the only entities I’d trust if investing in one of these.Did you find the InfoMoney fair in SP to be worthwhile?¬† Is it held every year, and if so, when?[/QUOTE]
    I apologize, the event is ExpoMoney! I went three years in a row 2010, 2011, 2012. I found 2010 to be phenomenal, then 2011 and 2012 progressively not so great. I think it could be a tell about how and where the economy is going. Regardless, if I were still in SP I would go this year. They are full of booths of investment firms, brokerages, etc. Also, there are speeches given by authors (whom are usually trying to peddle their most recent books, but you can take away good stuff). On an aside, the booths are usually staffed with beautiful girls who hand out marketing materials.
    You don’t have to come to São Paulo! There is one coming your way in June: http://www.expomoney.com.br/eventos,florianopolis
    It’s totally free so I would say go for it! Paulistano USA2013-03-14 20:22:18

  • #241214

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA]
    You don’t have to come to São Paulo! There is one coming your way in June: http://www.expomoney.com.br/eventos,florianopolis
    It’s totally free so I would say go for it! [/QUOTE]
    Awesome! Thanks for that!!
    (yeah, I googled ‘infomoney sao paulo’ and came up with nothing resembling a fair, so thanks for the correction)

  • #241215

    815
    Member

    No problem, man!
    The two are linked and I coincidentally learned about InfoMoney at ExpoMoney.
    Sign up way in advance because if it is anything like SP, the spots for the really good speeches go fast.

  • #241218

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Richand successful investors taking the time out to pass on their secrets – awesome!

  • #241221

    [QUOTE=Esprit]Richand successful investors taking the time out to pass on their secrets – awesome![/QUOTE]
    LOLWe can always dream, can’t we?!?
    How about you Esprit, with your 60% return… don’t keep mum. Share the wealth! Wink

  • #241229

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa][QUOTE=Esprit]Richand successful investors taking the time out to pass on their secrets – awesome![/QUOTE]
    LOLWe can always dream, can’t we?!?
    How about you Esprit, with your 60% return… don’t keep mum. Share the wealth! Wink
    [/QUOTE]

    Thehigh risk opportunities in the R$ junk bond market no longer exist and what little potential remains continuesto dwindle since the sweet spots have graduated up to investment grade in tandemwith accompanying price hikes. So in consequence they have a yield to maturityaveraging only 6.5% and requiring minimum investments of approximately R$350k. Theprince among these is an issue from Coelba currently yielding at 8.94% until2016. Minimum investment at today’s price: R$270k.

    There’sa little more variety in the USD issues and, for example, one could take aflyer [pardon the pun] with a GOL perpetual issue that is currently yielding 11.23%.Minimum investment at today’s price would be $79380.00. This is rated B1 and assuch is quite deep in junk territory and we know how precarious airlines are –do you feel lucky! Confused

  • #241255

    [QUOTE=Esprit]There’sa little more variety in the USD issues and, for example, one could take aflyer [pardon the pun] with a GOL perpetual issue that is currently yielding 11.23%.Minimum investment at today’s price would be $79380.00. This is rated B1 and assuch is quite deep in junk territory and we know how precarious airlines are –do you feel lucky![/QUOTE]
    With the money Delta has invested in GOL the past year or two, the upcoming traffic of Copa/Olympics, and general increase in air travel amongst Brasilians, this might not be as precarious as if it were just any airline. Nonetheless, this LCI I was referring to will end up paying an actualized return of about 8%… without the risk. My US compatriots are quite envious. But thanks for sharing that Esprit! Keep ’em coming!!!

  • #241261

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=Esprit]<span =”st”=””><span style=”line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;”>There‚Äôs
    a little more variety in the USD issues and, for example, one could take a
    flyer [pardon the pun] with a GOL perpetual issue that is currently yielding 11.23%.
    Minimum investment at today’s price would be $79380.00. This is rated B1 and as
    such is quite deep in junk territory and we know how precarious airlines are –
    do you feel lucky!<span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”></span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”></span></span></span>[/QUOTE]With the money Delta has invested in GOL the past year or two, the upcoming traffic of Copa/Olympics, and general increase in air travel amongst Brasilians, this might not be as precarious as if it were just any airline.¬† Nonetheless, this LCI I was referring to will end up paying an actualized return of about 8%… without the risk.¬† My US compatriots are quite envious.¬† But thanks for sharing that Esprit!¬† Keep ’em coming!!![/QUOTE]
    8% in reais sounds good yet inflation is tracking at 10% so your actual return is negative. Just like theose who bought the same yield when the real was 1.60.
    How about a nice commercial income rental property?

  • #241267

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] How about a nice commercial income rental property?[/QUOTE]
    A lot of commercial space has been constructed here the past few years, from ‘strip-mall’ type structures, to multistory buildings. Other than what’s been built in Centro, most of these are still sitting vacant.

  • #241274

    ukbr
    Member

    Can’t say I am impressed with the thread management.
    What do most of these posts have to do with “Exchange Rate Predictions 2013” ?

  • #241276

    In case you haven’t noticed Marcos, threads on this forum, no matter what the subject matter, often take detours. If you’ll scroll back far enough, I even acknowledged and apologized in advance for the off-topic nature of what I was about to post, which brought us to the present ‘discussion’.
    Any thread can always be brought ‘back on topic’. Did you have something to contribute along the line of exchange rates?

  • #241286

    rkearns
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=Esprit]<span =”st”=””><span style=”line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;”>There‚Äôs
    a little more variety in the USD issues and, for example, one could take a
    flyer [pardon the pun] with a GOL perpetual issue that is currently yielding 11.23%.
    Minimum investment at today’s price would be $79380.00. This is rated B1 and as
    such is quite deep in junk territory and we know how precarious airlines are –
    do you feel lucky!<span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”></span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”></span></span></span>[/QUOTE]With the money Delta has invested in GOL the past year or two, the upcoming traffic of Copa/Olympics, and general increase in air travel amongst Brasilians, this might not be as precarious as if it were just any airline.¬† Nonetheless, this LCI I was referring to will end up paying an actualized return of about 8%… without the risk.¬† My US compatriots are quite envious.¬† But thanks for sharing that Esprit!¬† Keep ’em coming!!![/QUOTE]
    I read yesterday that Brazilians getting visas to visit the “Land of the [Not] Free” has dropped something like 40%. I think 2008 was the peak for Brazil and it’s been somewhat downhill since then. Everyone is telling me that everything here is “parado”.
    Espirit, the only thing I know of that’s is getting around 10% are those real estate fundos on the BOVESPA. I would still rather buy Greek junk bonds, but just sayin.

  • #241289

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=troll_hunter] [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=Esprit]<span =”st”=””><span style=”line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;”>There‚Äôs
    a little more variety in the USD issues and, for example, one could take a
    flyer [pardon the pun] with a GOL perpetual issue that is currently yielding 11.23%.
    Minimum investment at today’s price would be $79380.00. This is rated B1 and as
    such is quite deep in junk territory and we know how precarious airlines are –
    do you feel lucky!<span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”></span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”></span></span></span>[/QUOTE]With the money Delta has invested in GOL the past year or two, the upcoming traffic of Copa/Olympics, and general increase in air travel amongst Brasilians, this might not be as precarious as if it were just any airline.¬† Nonetheless, this LCI I was referring to will end up paying an actualized return of about 8%… without the risk.¬† My US compatriots are quite envious.¬† But thanks for sharing that Esprit!¬† Keep ’em coming!!![/QUOTE]
    I read yesterday that Brazilians getting visas to visit the “Land of the [Not] Free” has dropped something like 40%. I think 2008 was the peak for Brazil and it’s been somewhat downhill since then. Everyone is telling me that everything here is “parado”.
    Espirit, the only thing I know of that’s is getting around 10% are those real estate fundos on the BOVESPA. I would still rather buy Greek junk bonds, but just sayin.
    [/QUOTE]
    The AA flight from Salvador to Miami direct are still quite full. This is a new service yet I am noticing a slight drop in the Brazilian tourists as the Real recedes. Brazilian purchases abroad continue strong, in the billions of dollars every month.
    I continue to arrive with full roller bags. Return with empty bags as Brazil remains expensive. I still expect the Real to slip due to inflationary pressure.

  • #241343

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]I still expect the Real to slip due to inflationary pressure. [/QUOTE]And voila, with that the thread is now elegantly back on track.
    Here’s to GreatBalls and fervently hoping he’s right. I can’t wait for it to get closer to 3 than to keep languishing at its current 2 or lower.
    picolino2013-03-18 23:44:18

  • #241516

    A developing situation which could possiblybecome a contagion, and cause some disruption in the markets, thus affecting exchange rates.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-17/europe-braces-for-renewed-turmoil-as-cyprus-deposit-levy-at-risk.html

    http://www.itn.co.uk/UK/71347/cyprus-bailout-leads-to-fears-over-expats-savings
    Also, on the other side of the pond, this is perhaps to be of interest: There’s No Immediate Debt Crisis(meaning, the SHTF could be real soon).
    Gringo.Floripa2013-03-17 17:12:21

  • #241542

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    It’sa simple question of definition; what is an immediate crisis? The pilot says, Ladiesand gentlemen, we’ve lost all four engines but because we’re at an altitude of35000 feet there is no immediate crisis. [we can glide for forty minutes].

    Ican no longer take these politicians seriously.

    It’shard to imagine a more stupid or dangerous way of making decisions than byputting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.

  • #241670

    doctorlili
    Member

    We had a spike at 2.01 BRL/USD today. Some cousin in law of the Brazilian Central Bank chief must have moved a few USD home from Florida. Despite my frustration with these erratic spikes, I was glad to see some movement back into the 2 territory.

  • #241675

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]We had a spike at 2.01 BRL/USD today. Some cousin in law of the Brazilian Central Bank chief must have moved a few USD home from Florida. [/QUOTE]
    Most likely the movement was due to the developing ‘contagion’ mentioned yesterday. The markets reacted negatively to what’s going on in Cyprus, so when the market falls, the USD goes up….
    Where this goes with Cyprus is anyone’s guess. It could be a done deal, the Russians out a few billion, and all this fizzles out. OR it could go down in history as the first domino that caused all the other insolvent EU nations to fall. Thus creating a ripple effect across the Atlantic to the EUA, which is still limping from when she stumbled and fell down one drunken night on the town with bankers of questionable morals.

  • #241682

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Indeed,the debacle that is painfully revealing itself in Cyprus is approaching theultimate folly that can be performed by politicians: legalised theft under the guiseof taxation. It proposes to take money from savers and general depositors inthe banks simply by degree that in effect says, we are bust and possession isnine tenths of the law. Cyprus is flat broke and desperate!

    Itis generally accepted that this Mickey Mouse little country, whose bankingsector is incredibly eight times larger than the country’s actual economy, is atax and money laundering haven whose dubious financial practices have beenspared commentary from the EU’s hypocritical political class until now. One hasto avoid the moral dilemma of not shedding any tears about stealing about twobillion Euros from Russian crooks or far lesser amounts from otherwise lawabiding citizens and instead to focus attention on what desperate governmentscan and demonstrably will do when the levels of debt and incompetency weightimpossibly on the system.

    Cyprusis a timely reminder that the global economy, despite the recent irrationalityof the booming markets, is still a fermenting mound of foul smelling excrement thathas yet to be cleared away; a difficult task given that politicians appear tobelieve they can borrow yet more money to rid themselves of debt. Thecollective hope is that the current policies of debasing the currencies and inflatingaway the debt will work given the longer term [read, terms of office].

    Iwill watch with great interest the forthcoming shenanigans in Cyprus becausethis little acorn has the potential to introduce a treacherous cancer within EuropeanBank, the IMF and Euro and therefore infect global economy.

  • #241716

    Gilmour
    Member

    Squiddie, you must have an awfully LARGE trust fund. What do I keep saying – long-term, Real is going to be devalued. By how much, I don’t know. Every other country is doing it. As soon as the Brazilian politicians figure out a way they will profit from it, it’s going to happen.
    Espirit, you’ve been taking politicians seriously? I’m shockud.

  • #241727

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]…
    Espirit, you’ve been taking politicians seriously? I’m shockud.
    [/QUOTE]

    Sponge,we joke about politics, don’t we? We laughingly despair, feigning superiority,in hopeless acceptance of their corrupt antics while begrudgingly paying theprice under penalty of law.

    I think it behoves us to take very seriously anygroup of lawmakers [elected politicians] that have, in addition to theirpowers, the control of the bureaucrats along with both the military and policeforces. Such politicians have the powers to herd us like sheep to be shornwhenever expediency demands.

    Keep not all your eggs in one jurisdiction and beready for flight when the winds of change blow; be afraid, be very afraid. [Damn,I’m beginning to sound like a redneck member of the NRA]. **Just saying’**

  • #241731

    Gilmour
    Member

    Espirit, I know who you a-r-e, but I’m not going to out ya. Naahh. for the small guy like me, why should we be concerned about a pack of liars? The less news I read, the happier I am.

  • #241762

    jeb2886
    Member

    This is exactly how these governments need to operate in a currency where they can no longer control inflation.
    Cutting spending is just a way to hurt the general public, while allowing the rich to pocket more and more money while paying less and less to employees as supply and demand for workers gets skewed.
    Money is for people to trade goods, trade services and trade wealth. Money doesn’t mean the same thing at the government level. The government uses it to change the rules to keep things in checks and balance.
    Right now they’re basically doing a wealth tax. Everyone with wealth, pony up. Rule change! This is best for the majority, the rich minority need to readjust things.
    Look to the US for how wealth has massively changed from the poor to the rich over the last few decades. http://mashable.com/2013/03/02/wealth-inequality/Eventually, the US will do a similar rule change. Money to most of us here is the score board for a game. We’re trying to achieve more of it to increase our score and lifestyle, but extra money earned is simply a “society owes ME” and when it’s crushing society, society needs to simply say, we’re changing the rules of this game, you won that round! good job! Lets play again.
    To us, it’s a game. To those at the bottom levels, it’s how they feed themselves. I doubt any of us here are in a position where money is needed to buy rice and beans to survive, it’s to buy vacations, widgets and expensive wine.

  • #241763

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]This is exactly how these governments need to operate…[/QUOTE]
    OR, keep the currency printing presses running 24/7….
    I agree JK, a ‘rule change’ is next on the agenda in the EUA.

  • #241765

    jeb2886
    Member

    Printing press is inflation essentially.
    A rule change is going to be necessary in the US, not because of the budget. Simply putting on 7% inflation for 5-6 years will reduce it to a very managable point. The problem is the workers are getting less and less each year, but productivity needs to increase 2.4% each year to just keep up.
    Productivity has been 2.4% for nearly 70 years. Every 30 years, we DOUBLE the amount of work we do in a day, not just work, but everything we do in life, it all gets compressed down so we have more time. That means, in 1980, we did 50% less than we do today. In 30 years, we’ll have to produce 100% more work!

  • #241767

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]Espirit, I know who you a-r-e, but I’m not going to out ya. Naahh. for the small guy like me, why should we be concerned about a pack of liars? The less news I read, the happier I am.
    [/QUOTE]

    Youknow who I am and can out me? Wonderful! Please do because both I and my psychiatristare most anxious to know.

    Meanwhileyou remind me of a very old joke: Two old men sat in lawn chairs. One says, It’snice out, isn’t it? To which the other replies, YesI think I’ll get mineout.

  • #241768

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Thecost of Western production needs to be reduced if it is to compete withemerging economies. Such costs on both sides are slowly merging; one side reducingby stealth, the other increasing by natural order. The countries that arelikely to suffer in this process are those that employ trade protectionism.

  • #241770

    jeb2886
    Member

    The US currently produces 23% of the worlds goods, at the same level it did in 1980 and that hasn’t changed much over that time frame. Value of goods produced remains high.
    Cost for manufacutring is around $22/hour in the US, while China is around $3.50. When all is said and done, there is a 30% gap between Chinese labour costs and the US because of productivity. To top it off, their wages are raising at roughly 15% a year.

  • #241772

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]¬†¬† Every 30 years, we DOUBLE the amount of work we do in a day, not just work, but everything we do in life, it all gets compressed down so we have more time.¬† That means, in 1980, we did 50% less than we do today. ¬† In 30 years, we’ll have to produce 100% more work!¬† ¬†
    [/QUOTE]
    Not everywhere. Look at France, for example. Brazil is also a good example where the tendency is to lower the hours in a workweek and give EVEN MORE to employees. Also, the increase in productivity looks huge, but the increases have been more related to increases in technology and not manual labour. Personally, I’ll never feel comfortable letting ANY government control my retirement accounts.

  • #241776

    jeb2886
    Member

    Look at wealth distribution in those countries. You’ll probably find people are working harder but getting to keep more and not needing to work as much.
    Productivity is in EVERY sector and everyones lives. For sure technology is playing a part in this, but it’s in everything we do. Look at how you do things in the US vs Brazil. Your shopping habits, how you pay bills, how you handle long lines or how you organize your day, down to the route you take to work to minimize the time it takes.
    Government is exactly who should have 100% control over retirement. Retirement is nothing more than a social promise. You work today, we’ll make sure you’re set later.
    I don’t care what the numbers are today, I know later I’ll be taken care of. HOW it’s done, I don’t know, because the rules will be changing to make that happen. If I put $100/week into my retirement and inflation destroys it, a bad choice, or a calculation error.. uh oh!
    A promise is much easier to keep. Rules will change to make sure it happens.
    You’re still stuck on money is money and nothing can change how money works. But rules can change it.

  • #241806

    This is from a newsletter I receive….
    If there was ever a policy manual on how to deal with recession, the Fed and ECB’s copies have fallen out of the ugly tree and managed to hit every single branch on the way down.
    Indeed, if the world’s central bankers had wanted to perpetuate this recession until hell froze over, they couldn’t have done a better job:
    * Set interest rates to levels flatter than ten-day old beer? Check.
    * Stimulate consumption? Check. At the expense of savers? Check.
    * Push stock markets to all-time nominal highs at shaky valuations? Check.
    * Prevent widespread liquidation of financial assets? Check.
    * Keep lending money to shaky businesses? Check.
    * Keep that QE liquor flowing to ensure that banks never have to face their hangover whilst sober? Check.
    * Ensure that bad banks– and let’s face it, they’re all bad– gorge on lousy government debt instead of lending to small and medium sized businesses? Check.
    * Keep on inflating base money? Check.
    * Interfere with the market to ensure that bad assets never reach a clearing price? Check.
    * Inflate retail prices? Check.
    * Seize funds directly from savers’ accounts? Check.
    Ludwig von Mises comes to mind– “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion…”
    Yet they keep trying to avoid it.

    Source: http://www.sovereignman.com/
    Gringo.Floripa2013-03-19 18:31:27

  • #241807

    jeb2886
    Member

    I would say most of that is crap.
    Stock market hasn’t been pushed to an all time high due to “shaky” valuations. Companies are making money hand over fist. Go check GDP, it’s the highest it’s ever been, and companies are making money like crazy. Valuations are completely in line with where they should be.
    Keep lending money to “shaky” businesses? Most businesses need money, but it’s impossible to yank of shaky. If a business has made it through that recession, then it wasn’t shaky. Even if it borrowed money, it wouldn’t have borrowed enough to get through that 5 years. Most of these businesses are flush with cash. #1 rule when investing, don’t lose your capital. What eats capital? Inflation. Inflation has dropped, so #1 rule has been met. Why invest it? You just need to invest it if you’re going to lose it somehow, but they aren’t going to lose it.
    Interest rates were set to prevent a collapse of the housing market. It has hurt other parts of the economy but saved the economy at the same time.
    If you started undoing, or ignoring several of these the economy would have been in major trouble. Having big banks go under? That would have caused businesses to lose credit which would have flowed down the market and taken probably 6 months to a year to clear out. While those businesses might have survived, everyone waiting for their pay checks wouldn’t have.
    Car companies? If one had gone under, they would have taken out all the suppliers who need all the business they’re getting. The suppliers supply all manufactures and would have stopped production on all cars. Cars make up a huge amount of businesses in the US, it wouldn’t be just one car company closing up shop, it would have been ALL of them being jammed for 6-12 months, while supply lines are rebuild.
    Housing? Kill that further than it was already killed? Holly crap, that would have stalled out the country.
    The government did what it could to prevent the US going belly up. If those three industries had been allowed to shut down for 6-12 months, and had people “working through” those problems, the economy would have been completely destroyed, and anyone with ANY debt would have lost everything, while those with a few dollars saved would have been buying everything for pennies on the dollar.
    We’re already seeing hedge funds buying up vast swaths of property — guess why? They’re cheap. Imagine if housing had really tanked? Those hedge funds would have bought up everything in site, and the only people hurt would have been the average citizen.

  • #241808

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Jkennedy.As is usual in all of your posts you remain in congratulatory mood toward thefederal government and fanatically optimistic about the US economy. Now I knowI’ll regret asking you this question, yet I feel I must: America is forced toborrow a trillion dollars each and every year to pay for its extravagant andunsustainable lifestyle; building the national debt, trillion upon multitrillion.Currently, I understand that the US is printing some 85 billion dollars eachmonth.

    How long is America going to be allowed to continually abuse its pivilegedposition all the while diminishing the world’s benchmark currency? How is America going to repay the multitrillions of dollars it already owes while still continuing to borrow anothertrillion every year for the foreseeable future? And please, respectfully, onceyou’ve composed your reply, take a second moment to read it, delete the crazybits and then post it.

    Esprit2013-03-19 19:32:30

  • #241810

    jeb2886
    Member

    Here is the answer:
    Money is for people to trade services, goods and wealth.
    Governments set the rules, they change them to ensure the country remains stable, and viable for the majority of the people. It’s like playing monopoly, at the end someone wins, what do you all do when that happens? WOo! you won.. ok, lets start over, this game is over, new game, everyone gets money.
    You’re tied into this obsesion that the government must follow some imaginary god rules, they’re not god rules, they are rules setup by the government.
    As a final tid bit. As I said before, US manufacturing costs $22/hours, produces 23% of the worlds goods and is only 30% more expensive than China. No matter what the US does, the currency will be traded based on THOSE rates. No country can deny US currency, and no country can shoot itself in the foot by valuing its currency above those manufacturing rates. The remaining people being “hurt” by this printing are in the US, those people don’t care because they don’t see it. They simply see the country running fine from their point of view. So externally, no one is going ot deny the US, internally, no one is going to complain. The losers? The wealthy. But so be it, they aren’t going to become poor, just less wealthy.

  • #241814

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Here is the answer:
    Money is for…
    [/QUOTE]

    I’ve deleted all the crazy bits. Thank you.
  • #241816

    jeb2886
    Member

    For you, you simply can’t comprehend how money isn’t treated exactly the way you use it and the way you were brought up thinking of it. Everyone of your posts is about how could they do something I can’t do!

  • #241818

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]For you, you simply can’t comprehend how money isn’t treated exactly the way you use it and the way you were brought up thinking of it. Everyone of your posts is about how could they do something I can’t do!
    [/QUOTE]

    You‚Äôvegot me there – I only know about how money has been used during these last 200years and so you‚Äôre right; I can‚Äôt comprehend how exactly it isn‚Äôt treated [?] Whichgoes to prove your other point: I don’t know how they could do something I can‚Äôtdo. Gosh, I sure gotta get me some book learnin‚Äô

  • #241823

    [QUOTE=Esprit]Whichgoes to prove your other point: I don’t know how they could do something I can‚Äôtdo.

    [/QUOTE]
    I tried printing my own money once. When I went to pass it off at the supermarket, the cashier just smiled, giggled, handed it back to me, then asked “Debito ou credito?”.

    Gringo.Floripa2013-03-19 20:56:36

  • #241828

    graham
    Participant

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]…Money is for people to trade services, goods and wealth.Governments set the rules, they change them to ensure the country remains stable, and viable for the majority of the people.¬†¬† It’s like playing monopoly, at the end someone wins, what do you all do when that happens? WOo! you won.. ok, lets start over, this game is over, new game, everyone gets money…
    [/QUOTE]
    ???

  • #241829

    Seems to me there are too many “Get out of jail free” cards floating around in the US, especially on Wall Street….

  • #241839

    jeb2886
    Member

    You spend money, governments make it. Governments print it, and people take it. You print it and no one takes it. Governments set the rules, you play by them. What is so hard to understand?
    Your experience with money from the past 200 years should show that no money is safe from rule changes, and that they happen all the time. Right now, they’re printing money.
    Printed money doesn’t mean disaster, it happens all the time, all over the world. Sometimes it does create a problem for a country, especially if they produce nothing. Luckily that isn’t the case with the US.

  • #241844

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Jkennedy.A Homer Simpson 101 we’re screwed lesson:

    Governmentmoney is that which is levied through taxation; such receipt is used forgovernment funding for administrative, social and military apportionments. Theproblem under discussion relates to the shortfall in tax receipts set againstapportionments; this shortfall being a staggering one trillion dollars of irresponsibleoverspending per annum which represents borrowing from both foreign and domesticentities. The interest cost on such borrowing causes a further burden on taxreceipts thereby demanding yet more borrowing which, in turn, compounds theproblem year on year in a so-called death spiral of debt.

    Sofrom where comes this borrowed money? Seeminglythe Federal Reserve has an unlimited supply of this cash that is readilyavailable on demand. Does the Federal Reserve have its own money and if so howdoes it generate such vast sums that are greater in size than the economies ofmost countries? Well, in truth, it doesn’t have anything other than the fancynames that bamboozle the boys down on the farm, such as quantitative easing. Insimplistic terms it has nothing other than a counterfeiter’s printing press’and a tank full of green ink.

    Thebad news is that there is nothing to back up the value of each and every dollarit prints and so in consequence each of those new dollars dilute the value of thosealready existing; hyperinflation in the making. There are no rules other thanthe chase for higher wages that chase a higher cost of living during which timethe exchange rate with other global currencies affects the cost of imports therebyreducing the standard of living.

    Whyis all this happening? The voting collective idiot is, every four years,charmed by lying sons of bitches that promise to give you all kinds of goodstuff while protecting you from the bad stuff all the while keeping you asleepin case you wake from the American dream. During this partisan nightmare thepolitical class fill, not only their own pockets, but also the pockets of theircorporate sponsors. Twas ever thus and ever thus will be while men remain dumberthan a bag of breezy pork bungs.

  • #241846

    jeb2886
    Member

    All I hear is “Blah blah blah, They’re spending money like I can’t… blah blah blah”
    They back it up with one of the world’s largest manufacturing bases. Period.
    They can dilute the money as much as they want, it essentially eats away at wealth of the wealthy, and transfers it to the general public. Same way taxes do.

  • #241853

    Gilmour
    Member

    Guys… please stop this American furvor. It’s just a peaceful discussion about world economics and sometimes about the Real. No need to get worked up about something we have no control over.
    jkennedy, actually you mention manufacturing, but what about imports? You should look at the trade deficit. The US definitely wins in this department!! Per capita the Germans and the Swiss export more than the US. Look at US manufacturing since the 1960s! It resembles the US dollar: down down down. I complain a lot about incompetent Brazilians, but the US HAS been in this [general] downward spiral since the 1960s. I’m not saying it will end. Maybe they’ll come to their senses, but I doubt it. The US is going the way of the British Empire around the time of the Opium Wars. There are lots of parallels.
    GF – I would go crazy reading as much news as you do. Here’s how I think: mainstream news keeps you connected to the Borg. These guys comment on the mainstream news. When was the last time an analyst was correct about market direction or stock picks or commodity prices? Never. How many government will steal your money? Almost all of them! Where is the cheapest, safest, friendliest place to live? I don’t know, I’m looking for it. Please tell me if you know. Has Simon Black ever left the US? I doubt it.

  • #241855

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] You spend money, governments make it.¬† Governments print it, and people take it.¬† You print it and no one takes it.¬† Governments set the rules, you play by them.¬† What is so hard to understand?Your experience with money from the past 200 years should show that no money is safe from rule changes, and that they happen all the time.¬† Right now, they’re printing money.¬†¬† Printed money doesn’t mean disaster, it happens all the time, all over the world.¬† Sometimes it does create a problem for a country, especially if they produce nothing.¬† Luckily that isn’t the case with the US.[/QUOTE]
    jkennedy, show me ONE “success story” with printed money. I mean one single case of a country not needing to debase (devalue) their currencies. It’s a unicorn. It doesn’t exist. The underlying problem is human nature. Politicians love easy money that comes from taxes. They spend more. They give themselves more power. They spend even more. It’s a never-ending problem. All we small fryes can do is to try to protect ourselves.The feeling I’m getting from the US and Europe is: You are our slaves; give us your money! [even if you’ve already paid taxes on it.]
    spongebob2013-03-20 06:14:24

  • #241857

    [QUOTE=spongebob]GF – I would go crazy reading as much news as you do. Here’s how I think: mainstream news keeps you connected to the Borg. These guys comment on the mainstream news. When was the last time an analyst was correct about market direction or stock picks or commodity prices? Never. How many government will steal your money? Almost all of them! Where is the cheapest, safest, friendliest place to live? I don’t know, I’m looking for it. Please tell me if you know. Has Simon Black ever left the US? I doubt it.
    [/QUOTE]
    Spongey, ‘the news’ is merely assorted sources of information. They all have their slant, so IMO, the more slants you read, the more likely you are to find a balanced view of what’s really going on, using your own intelligence and intuition as a filter.
    I don’t know ‘Simon Black’ personally, but I know a gringo here who does, and who’s attended some of the seminars hosted by Sovereign Man. The guy is real, and he has actionable intel. IMO (and others may disagree) ‘Simon Black’ is not as far ‘out there’ as Alex Jones, though he’s still an alarmist. But the message is nonetheless sane and sensible: Don’t keep all of your eggs in one basket, especiallyif that basket is painted red, white, and blue.
    He has an ‘Insider’ edition of his newsletter, which I don’t subscribe to, and in that premium version (so I’ve heard) he details how to become ‘sovereign’… obtaining a second passport, opening a foreign bank account, purchasing productive rural land (outside of Tio Sam’s fazenda), etc, etc.
    Most of what he recommends, I’ve already done on my own, or are in the process of accomplishing. Not because he says to, but because by reading the news(as opposed to watching it on TV, which doesn’t entail using your brain), it seemed to me that given the ‘current events’ (which one learns about from the news), these would be prudent steps to take, shouldthe SHTF. “Hope for the best; plan for the worst” is my motto.
    Yet some people need or prefer for someone to give them a plan of action, thus ‘Simon Black’ has an audience. You have to take it all with a grain of salt Spongey, but even as sensationalistic as Alex Jones is, the majority of the things he rants about are based on genuine facts and/or events.
    But contemporary human nature (particularly ‘Western culture’) is lazy. Most people will stay asleep, worn out by their day at the Walmart circus, and their belly full of drive-thru bread. When the firetruck pulls up in front of their house (just a few minutes before midnight, metaphorically speaking), with the lights flashing and sirens blasting, the only thing left to do is jump out the window into the net, with only the clothes on your back. Yet had they heard the smoke alarm beeping (assuming they were diligent enough to change the battery twice a year), then gotten their lazy azz out of bed and looked to see what was going on, they probably could have done something before everything they owned was lost.
    EDIT: GPS (grammar/punctuation/spelling)
    Gringo.Floripa2013-03-20 09:30:15

  • #241867

    Gilmour
    Member

    yeah… Alex Jones gets on my nerves. About the 2nd passport. I SOOO wish it were cheaper to get one from a good country. Here’s a conspiracy for you: it’s been over a year that I’m waiting for the “home visit” from the PF.

  • #241880

    [QUOTE=spongebob] it’s been over a year that I’m waiting for the “home visit” from the PF[/QUOTE]
    Would they be coming all the way from BH? If so, you might want to contact them and let them know you’ll be having a churrasco on such and such a date. Just sayin’…. Wink

  • #241881

    doctorlili
    Member

    I think what JKennedy is saying is that money is an elusive concept. It is an instrument primarily trusted to trade in the present, money is supposed to flow, not to rest, that’s why it’s called “currency”. You really can’t trust it to be in the future what it is in the present. One way or the other you will lose its trade value, either by taxation, governmental repossession, or simply by inflation (which QE money printing really is just an effective covert form of general taxation). This is how shares of a good operating company purchased at a decent valuation has a lot of advantages over any passive instruments denominated in a fixed amount of currency.
    Also, JKennedy is right, governments can and do change the rules. So to diversify globally is good advice. Take your possessions out of the reach of any one government also means one must commit perjury to deny the existence of such resources in other countries so as to escape the global taxation rules to which most of them aspire. One might consider having 3 residences in 3 countries and citizenship in none so as to never be a resident for tax purposes anywhere.
    US debt is staggering, and to think that its mostly wasted on military gadgets is a shame. The trillions of debt are against the Social Security Fund, and both Rs’ and Ds’ verbiage (Ventitlement reform”) indicates to me that they are all toying with the idea to steal the social security interest from the middle class. There will be more shifting of wealth to the rich. [http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QPKKQnijnsM]

  • #241883

    Gilmour
    Member

    Thread Police: This is off topic, but I don’t give a sh*t.
    GF – in these here neck of the woods, the PF insist on absolute secrecy and randomness of the visit. But what you said is a good idea.
    I think it’s more like someone in the Land of the Freesaid “That little pr*ck is saying that he wants to renounce! How dare he! … and a phone call was made. I’m all over the internet, so I’m not hard to track down, unfortunately. I shoulda just kept quiet about it. You’d think that the US is above this sort of petty shiiite, but they’re not. I’ve seen a couple of similar cases. Interestingly enough, I dreamt last night that I was back in the Land of the Free with the family.

  • #241887

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]Take your possessions out of the reach of any one government also means one must commit perjury to deny the existence of such resources in other countries so as to escape the global taxation rules to which most of them aspire.[/QUOTE]
    Not necessarily. As long as one declares (if required) the existence of other resources, they’ve committed no crime. Tio Sam might want to tax the account I have in Brasil and/or Singapore, but he can’t access it/freeze it/seize it. The places to avoid are those where the economy of their own country is limping, just as the US is still limping along (regardless of the figures JK conjures up). These places are more likely to initiate reciprocal foda o gringo policies with the EUA, than those which are more stable.
    So as not to go further off-topic, see links in the post I made in this thread on 07 March: FATCA
    [QUOTE=Squiddie]One might consider having 3 residences in 3 countries and citizenship in none so as to never be a resident for tax purposes anywhere[/QUOTE]
    AFIK, residents and citizens are taxed the same. Yet it’s only Tio Sam who taxes his citizens (and residents) on their world-wide income for their entire life, no matter where they might physically live!
    So any bets as to when Europe melts down and we hit 3.0??? Wink
    Gringo.Floripa2013-03-20 10:18:57

  • #241891

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Europeanmeltdown? The Cyprus thing has frothed over into a parliamentary rejection ofthe proposed money grab from depositors. So now, in the absence of any morebailout money, the banks can’t open their doors again and they will fall intodisorderly bankruptcy. We have the classic, Mexican standoff between theEuropean Central Bank/IMF and Cyprus.

    Theactual significance of a collapse in Cyprus is little more than a mosquito biteon the ass however, the risk is its withdrawal from the Euro and any likelyfurther fallout that may encourage Italy for example where government is inchaos or even France where those socialist pouting rings are beginning toreject the austerity programmes that are crippling all of Europe; Cyprus hasthe potential to burst the dam of pent up frustration. That mosquito bite mayturn out to be the sinister dengue type.

    Allof this has but one potential for the dollar; the skyward trajectory of thisfool’s gold! It may be the last chance to cash in all those dollars in exchangefor the tit’s & ass volatile yoyo money; be careful what you ask for.

  • #241913

    jeb2886
    Member

    US Manufacturing is 23% of the global output, how much MORE do you think one country should control? It’s been 23% for the least 30 some odd years. It hasn’t gone down. What has gone down is the number of employees and manufacutring useless widget crap for walmart. It’s about high end products.
    As for printing money not working. Well inflation is basically printing money, and the US has had a very sucessful story of doing that. Also what people don’t seem to realize is that 7% inflation for a decade would wipe out the debt. No “super hyper inflation” just 7% a year. Nothing more, nothing less. It would be down to 25% of it’s current value in a decade, I think we could all say that if the debt was at 4T is a pretty good number?
    As for the deficit, hit up the NYT’s article. They had a good “balance your own budget” there, and basically it was undo bush tax cuts. Stop the wars. That was about all it took. Not cuts were necessary, no drastic 90% tax rate.
    What this boils down to is the US is fine economically, it’s manufacturing enough goods to offset printing money, inflation isn’t a bad thing as long as it doesn’t get out of control. The PEOPLE of the US are getting screwed (more productivity, less money), but as a whole the country is doing well.
    That being said, it means the rest of the world has a place to put their money in case of emergency, there is a safty net somewhere. So people are going to invest elsewhere trying to get better returns, knowing at the drop of a hat they can run and hide behind uncle sam and wait for something better out there.

  • #241923

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    As for the deficit, hit up the NYT’s article. They had a good “balance your own budget” there, and basically it was undo bush tax cuts. Stop the wars. That was about all it took. Not cuts were necessary, no drastic 90% tax rate.
    [/QUOTE]
    “Stop the wars”? LOL
    Add this to the fookin list of absurd and vulgar expenditures: 750 MILLION dollars to build an embassy! Nem me fala cara sobre “Tudo está tranquilo por aqui, nos EUA”.
    Her days are numbered.
    Gringo.Floripa2013-03-20 15:03:33

  • #241926

    Gilmour
    Member

    jkennedy, what is country with the largest trade deficit? Let’s explore the 2011 numbers. I looked at the 2012 numbers. They look very close:
    Deficit in Billion US-Dollar
    Rank Country Deficit
    (2011)
    1. USA -784.775
    2. UK -162.973
    3. India -154.401
    While the US is trying to buy themselves out of a recession, these countries have surpluses:
    Surplus in Billion US-Dollar
    Rank Country Surplus
    (2011)
    1. Saudi Arabia 252.756
    2. Germany 219.938
    3. Russia 198.760
    4. China 155.142
    Brazil is 27th on the list of countries with a surplus.
    Maybe it’s the new rage in the US to going deeper into debt every month.
    spongebob2013-03-20 15:47:09

  • #241945

    jeb2886
    Member

    Going deeper into “debt”? Those purchases are made using USD. Others are accepting a currency that is clearly over valued. They are willing to hold onto money that they will almost guarantee a loss on in the future.
    You’re confusing manufacturing and trading. They’re completely different things. If those countries allowed the US currency to trade lower to punish those bad americans for their poor budgeting… they would be flooded with goods that would wipe out their manufacturing economy.
    Remove oil imports from the US trade deficit. Then take a look at things. Also look at your list of countries there.
    Saudi – Exports oil
    Russia – Exports oil
    China – Devalues it’s currency by at least 20% to create value to export to the US and Europe.
    Germany – Uses the Euro to sell to countries that can’t afford their stuff in Europe. Drop the Euro and watch Germany spin into a massive recession as none of those countries can afford their goods.

  • #241948

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Going deeper into “debt”? Those purchases are made using USD. Others are accepting a currency that is clearly over valued. They are willing to hold onto money that they will almost guarantee a loss on in the future.
    You’re confusing manufacturing and trading. They’re completely different things. If those countries allowed the US currency to trade lower to punish those bad americans for their poor budgeting… they would be flooded with goods that would wipe out their manufacturing economy.
    Remove oil imports from the US trade deficit. Then take a look at things. Also look at your list of countries there.
    Saudi – Exports oil
    Russia – Exports oil
    China – Devalues it’s currency by at least 20% to create value to export to the US and Europe.
    Germany – Uses the Euro to sell to countries that can’t afford their stuff in Europe. Drop the Euro and watch Germany spin into a massive recession as none of those countries can afford their goods.
    [/QUOTE]

    Through the Looking-Glass, and What Alice [jkennedy] FoundThere: When he uses a word, a word like money, it means just what he chooses itto mean; neither more, nor less. A trillion here or a trillion there is oflittle or no consequence. Please, sir, can you spare just one week’s worth ofprinting to save little ol Cyprus? Buddy can you spare a dime?

    And so the time has come, to talk of many things: Ofshoes and ships and sealing-wax. Of cabbages and kings and why the sea isboiling hot and whether pigs have wings. Wacko

  • #241992

    Gilmour
    Member

    jkennedy, I mean this in the nicest way, but unless you are the reincarnation of Nostrodamus himself, what you are saying is spaghetti. First, the US started the “competitive devaluation” around 2006. Then the “Euro Crisis” started. Wonder why? You say that the dollar is overvalued, but compared to what? Given that you are American, and you listen the media there. If they are brainwashing the people to believe the dollar is overvalued, then it’s just plain scary. How low do the PTB want to go!!
    Secondly, you can’t have your cake and eat it too. You can’t remove oil from the deficit. Numbers are numbers. If the US wanted to, they could largely be oil INDEPENDENT, but why not? Oil generates big money, even in the US and offshore.
    Manufacturing output gets exported, right? If it’s exported, it’s IN the trade deficit calculation. Frankly, I’m glad that you guys also have an interest in this. Foreign trade is an interesting area, especially trade disputes. The WTO site has all of the trade disputes, which are interesting reads.

  • #242114

    jeb2886
    Member

    Me watch the news? Never. I watch the numbers. If I watched the news, I would be like you guys, screaming about debt problems, trade deficits, china taking over the world, and other great lies.
    Manufacturing output gets exported? No. Manufacturing output gets sold. Internally, or external. You’re confused here, just like I suspected. The US manufactures lots of goods it uses itself. You’re confusing manufacturing with exports.
    Removing Oil from the imports makes sense. It gives a much clearer picture of what is actually being imported vs exported. The US could become energy independent within a few years, at which point, exports would far outweigh inports.
    Think of it this way, if someone country is willing to give you $1 for every three quarters you give them, wouldn’t you continue doing it for as long as you could? WIN for the US in many ways.
    Now why would China or Germany be willing to do this? Give away goods for a lower price? Why accept a currency they know won’t last? Simple, it allows their countries to employee more people. They can build out factories, get contracts, figure out business best practices now, and then later when the currenies are revalued, hopefully their countries won’t be hurt.
    Ever wonder why people say “Kick germany from the Euro”? and not “kick greece from the Euro!”? It’s because Germany is selling below cost. Those countries need more inflation, they need to be more competitive against Germany. They can’t when their currency is locked in place though. Break that lock, and the German currency would skyrocket over night (who would want a france/cypress/greek/portugal euro?!). Next phase, Germany needs to lay off masses, as no one can pay their prices anymore. Next step, all those poor countries can start up their manufacturing again.

  • #242127

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Me watch the news? Never. I watch the numbers. If I watched the news, I would be like you guys, screaming about debt problems, trade deficits, china taking over the world, and other great lies.
    Manufacturing output gets exported? No. Manufacturing output gets sold. Internally, or external. You’re confused here, just like I suspected. The US manufactures lots of goods it uses itself. You’re confusing manufacturing with exports.
    Removing Oil from the imports makes sense. It gives a much clearer picture of what is actually being imported vs exported. The US could become energy independent within a few years, at which point, exports would far outweigh inports.
    Think of it this way, if someone country is willing to give you $1 for every three quarters you give them, wouldn’t you continue doing it for as long as you could? WIN for the US in many ways.
    Now why would China or Germany be willing to do this? Give away goods for a lower price? Why accept a currency they know won’t last? Simple, it allows their countries to employee more people. They can build out factories, get contracts, figure out business best practices now, and then later when the currenies are revalued, hopefully their countries won’t be hurt.
    Ever wonder why people say “Kick germany from the Euro”? and not “kick greece from the Euro!”? It’s because Germany is selling below cost. Those countries need more inflation, they need to be more competitive against Germany. They can’t when their currency is locked in place though. Break that lock, and the German currency would skyrocket over night (who would want a france/cypress/greek/portugal euro?!). Next phase, Germany needs to lay off masses, as no one can pay their prices anymore. Next step, all those poor countries can start up their manufacturing again.
    [/QUOTE]

    That, having been written, ensures that the world is a little dumber tonight.
  • #242132

    graham
    Participant

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] Me watch the news?¬† Never.¬† I watch the numbers.¬† If I watched the news, I would be like you guys, screaming about debt problems, trade deficits, china taking over the world, and other great lies.Manufacturing output gets exported? No.¬†¬† Manufacturing output gets sold.¬† Internally, or external.¬†¬† You’re confused here, just like I suspected.¬†¬† The US manufactures lots of goods it uses itself.¬† You’re confusing manufacturing with exports.Removing Oil from the imports makes sense. It gives a much clearer picture of what is actually being imported vs exported.¬†¬† The US could become energy independent within a few years, at which point, exports would far outweigh inports.¬†¬† Think of it this way, if someone country is willing to give you $1 for every three quarters you give them, wouldn’t you continue doing it for as long as you could?¬† WIN for the US in many ways.Now why would China or Germany be willing to do this?¬† Give away goods for a lower price?¬† Why accept a currency they know won’t last?¬†¬† Simple, it allows their countries to employee more people.¬†¬† They can build out factories, get contracts, figure out business best practices now, and then later when the currenies are revalued, hopefully their countries won’t be hurt.Ever wonder why people say “Kick germany from the Euro”?¬† and not “kick greece from the Euro!”?¬† It’s because Germany is selling below cost.¬† Those countries need more inflation, they need to be more competitive against Germany.¬†¬† They can’t when their currency is locked in place though.¬† Break that lock, and the German currency would skyrocket over night (who would want a france/cypress/greek/portugal euro?!).¬†¬† Next phase, Germany needs to lay off masses, as no one can pay their prices anymore.¬† Next step, all those poor countries can start up their manufacturing again.
    [/QUOTE]
    No offence jkennedy, your logic is elegant, but unfortunately it seems more like you’re describing a game checkers while the world is really playing chess.

  • #242254

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] Going deeper into “debt”?¬† Those purchases are made using USD.¬† Others are accepting a currency that is clearly over valued.¬† They are willing to hold onto money that they will almost guarantee a loss on in the future.¬†¬† You’re confusing manufacturing and trading.¬†¬† They’re completely different things.¬† If those countries allowed the US currency to trade lower to punish those bad americans for their poor budgeting… they would be flooded with goods that would wipe out their manufacturing economy.¬† Remove oil imports from the US trade deficit.¬† Then take a look at things.¬†¬† Also look at your list of countries there.Saudi – Exports oilRussia – Exports oilChina – Devalues it’s currency by at least 20% to create value to export to the US and Europe.¬† Germany – Uses the Euro to sell to countries that can’t afford their stuff in Europe.¬† Drop the Euro and watch Germany spin into a massive recession as none of those countries can afford their goods.
    [/QUOTE]
    Every time I turn around, US politicians are screaming that the Chinese yuan is too weak. I haven’t seen anything about devaluation recently. Notice that while American politicians scream about the Yuan, do you hear the Germans complaining? Nope, not a peep. The Chinese situation has always been this way since the days of Marco Polo. Check it out for yourself. Look up the “Opium Wars” and why they were fought in the first place. I’ll give you a hint: a MAJOR trade deficit.
    If oil is being imported, you cannot remove it from the balance of trade. IMO, the US should follow Brazil and try to get more oil indepedent.
    What I meant by you being influenced by the media is this: you can deny it all you want to, but you live there, therefore they are eventually going to get their message into your brain, whether it’s through the media or print, they’re going to get it in there. I don’t live there. All I hear about is people complaining about how expensive it is to live here as a result of high taxes (coming from Brazilians).
    And one more thing about what you said: You said that you only look at the numbers. The very first thing the professor said in Statistics class is that “Statistics are very easy to manipulate.” This is why I’m not that “into” the Geo-political news of the world. They’re just way too many variable, lies, opinions, etc.. I prefer much more to look at a chart and make the decision whether to buy or to sell. Price doesn’t lie.

  • #242264

    jeb2886
    Member

    Every time a politician says the Chinese yuan is too weak, it’s because they know it’s not going to change, and that the status quo is the best place for it. It’s in the best interest of the US to let China get big, so they become a huge consumer like Europe and the US. The thing is, the currency COULD be revalued and things would be levelled off pretty quickly. But no one actually wants that. If you haven’t noticed, most politicians scream on the bandwagon, but soon as that bandwagon dies off they say “Yeah you don’t want to do that…” I think we could all agree Romney was probably the best case of this ever :)
    The US is using up everyone elses oil, and letting them pay cheap prices for it via the dollar. Don’t forget that the US has dropped oil usage in the last few years drastically! Although everyone says “The US is importing more than ever!” they’re now using it to make gas to export. Gas usuage in the US is giong down. 5-10 years from now, hybrids and electrics are going to make huge dents in oil usage in the US. Hybrids and more reliance on high MPG cars have helped gas usuage drop.
    I don’t watch tv or have cable or an antenna setup or read the papers, I just watch some of the numbers, using places like US census data and graph them like you said. Those don’t lie. Go graph out the GDP, you’ll see where the US economy really is. Exactly where it should be. Recovery happened.

  • #242342

    Gilmour
    Member

    jkennedy, imagine how much Brazilians could buy if they didn’t have to pay all of the absurd taxes! I was talking ot my wife the other day, “he (a guy I know), and the people like him suffer because everything costs so much that they can never afford to buy anything better.” I was thinking about TVs, cell phones, etc..
    Jkennedy, send a letter to CONgress getting them to start pressuring Brazil over their high taxes.

  • #242387

    jeb2886
    Member

    I’m the exact opposite of what you’re suggesting. I believe everything is fairly stable and I fully realise that changing one rule doesn’t solve problems, it simply shifts it.
    “reducing taxes” is like saying we’ll solve the problems of brazilians complaining things are too expensive, but all it would do is cause the currency to spiral out of control over night, destroying all manufacturing in Brazil. Could you imagine being able to buy a REAL Japanese car vs the Brazilian version? No one would buy one. Brazilians couldn’t even compete at those price levels. Clothing? Kiss those jobs good bye. Who would buy Brazilian materials when they could buy high quality turkish cotton?
    This is something crackpots come up with on the news, a change or a fix that is one dimensional. Reduce the taxes so brazilians can BUY!
    This is exactly why looking at the deficit and saying good lord it’s all bad, is just plain wrong.

  • #242694

    A funny video, yet frighteningly true….

    The Importance of Saving Money
    Shocked

  • #242698

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    The continuingsaga in Cyprus: The 17th century French politician Jean-Baptiste Colbertfamously said that: The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose asto obtain the largest amount of feathers with the least possible amount ofhissing. Well, well, since the Cypriot goose not only hissed, it flailed itswings and pecked at the original proposal that every depositor, both large andsmall, should be plucked hard and relieved of a percentage of their deposits.Pluck off, they replied in outrage and in no small numbers.

    Since thatresounding rejection by the Cypriot government and its people, it has now beenagreed between the European bosses and the IMF and the pitiable Greek President,that only the people with very large deposits of over €100,000.00 will getplucked by up to 40%. 40%!!!!!!

    Turns out that, according to the conditions wesign when we open a bank account, when we deposit our money in the bank that moneyno longer belongs to us but we become a bank creditor in the sum of that whichhas been deposited and confirmed by a bank statement. Whatever risk the bank takeswith its money [our money] is a matter for them alone. If the bank plucks up,we get plucked in the butt!

    In thiscase however it is suspected that a lot of Russians will get stiffed togetherwith a whole bunch of other money launderers and possibly some perfectly innocent,yet rich suckers. The banks won’t open until Thursday of this week and it isnot until then, and the weeks following, that we will learn the full consequences ofthis confidence shattering debacle. Who or what can we trust now?

  • #242699

    jeb2886
    Member

    There are 3 ways to tax people. Wealth taxes (property taxes), usage taxes (put on all items sold) and wage taxes (typical income tax). Each hits a different type of person and each ensures there are some taxes collect from each sector of the economy.
    Cypress turned out much better than I expected. 40% is good. They aren’t going to try and wack people 6 or 7 times, just one big hit. Basically they’ve said you’ve used a system for way under cost, and now you’re going to have to pay for it. Each person in a society creates a certain amount of capital creation. Capitalism allows some people to “take a tiny bit” from others net capital contribution to the country via paying an employee less than their contribution and acting as a middle man. They then get extremely rich. Then they don’t return that money to the economy. So be it.
    Turned out pretty well, markets look pretty happy with the decision. So far the people of cypress seem ok with it. Looks good!

  • #242704

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]There are 3 ways to tax people. Wealth taxes (property taxes), usage taxes (put on all items sold) and wage taxes (typical income tax). Each hits a different type of person and each ensures there are some taxes collect from each sector of the economy.
    Cypress turned out much better than I expected. 40% is good. They aren’t going to try and wack people 6 or 7 times, just one big hit. Basically they’ve said you’ve used a system for way under cost, and now you’re going to have to pay for it. Each person in a society creates a certain amount of capital creation. Capitalism allows some people to “take a tiny bit” from others net capital contribution to the country via paying an employee less than their contribution and acting as a middle man. They then get extremely rich. Then they don’t return that money to the economy. So be it.
    Turned out pretty well, markets look pretty happy with the decision. So far the people of cypress seem ok with it. Looks good!
    [/QUOTE]

    Clearlyyou are incapable of imagining having over €100,000.00 cash deposit in a bank.Had you such imagination you may see the possible disadvantage of losing €40,000.00because of a whim diktat by the IMF. Perhaps your money was on deposit pendinga business transaction or a house purchase or any number of legitimate reasons.Get the picture?

    As to the people of Cyprus seeming to be okay aboutall this, all I can say is that since you have already claimed not to get yourinformation from any type of media, what possible source gave you thatincredibly stupid idea? The major element of their economy has been destroyedand the country is about to plunge into massive unemployment and deep recession,so sure, they’re okay with that?

    Esprit2013-03-25 20:26:56

  • #242707

    jeb2886
    Member

    You have a problem understanding capital creation then. It’s sad that 100K savers lose out, I would be pissed to. But it’s basically the rich are paying for the excess they’ve stripped out of the country and not returned. Money = debt society owes these people.
    Where did I get my source? I have heard of no massive death counts, pretty simple. Death is a pretty good indicator of peoples true intentions. Bitching and whining is one thing, dying is a whole different level. A few deaths could be a mistake, but a good number of them? That says there are some unhappy people.

  • #242708

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]You have a problem understanding capital creation then. It’s sad that 100K savers lose out, I would be pissed to. But it’s basically the rich are paying for the excess they’ve stripped out of the country and not returned. Money = debt society owes these people.
    Where did I get my source? I have heard of no massive death counts, pretty simple. Death is a pretty good indicator of peoples true intentions. Bitching and whining is one thing, dying is a whole different level. A few deaths could be a mistake, but a good number of them? That says there are some unhappy people.
    [/QUOTE]

    You‚Äôrecommenting clearly tags you in a certain socioeconomic group if you believethat having ‚Ǩ100,000.00 on deposit signifies one as being rich. Frankly I don’tknow why I bother responding to you when your train of thought meanders to theridiculous as exampled by your observation about the lack of body bags inCyprus indicating to a good result.

  • #242744

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]
    [QUOTE=jkennedy]You have a problem understanding capital creation then.¬† It’s sad that 100K savers lose out, I would be pissed to.¬† But it’s basically the rich are paying for the excess they’ve stripped out of the country and not returned.¬†¬† Money = debt society owes these people.¬† Where did I get my source?¬† I have heard of no massive death counts, pretty simple.¬† Death is a pretty good indicator of peoples true intentions.¬†¬† Bitching and whining is one thing, dying is a whole different level.¬† A few deaths could be a mistake, but a good number of them?¬† That says there are some unhappy people.
    [/QUOTE]

    <font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;’>You‚Äôre
    commenting clearly tags you in a certain socioeconomic group if you believe
    that having ‚Ǩ100,000.00 on deposit signifies one as being rich. Frankly I don’t
    know why I bother responding to you when your train of thought meanders to the
    ridiculous as exampled by your observation about the lack of body bags in
    Cyprus indicating to a good result. <span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><?:namespace prefix = o ns = “urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office” /><o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>

    [/QUOTE]
    jkennedy, thank you for being sincere, but you are the true reflection of America over the last 8 years. 100k is NOT rich.This is confiscation and nothing more. Propaganda is powerful, isn’t it? This is exactly what I was saying the other day: They are going to get their message inside your head. I recommend a very long trip very far from the US. Then you will start to see things are they really are.
    On the bright side, who knows, maybe those people can move their money to other banks, quick-like. For the FOREX bizness, the brokers I’m familiar with keep customer deposits in foreign banks, but I remember one of them was dealing with local Cypriot banks. I hope they changed banks!

  • #242746

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]
    Russian Mafia
    [/QUOTE]
    yeah.. I’m a bit puzzled by this. I’ll be very surprised if the head of the IMF or at the least, the President of Cyprus, doesn’t end up getting whackedover this. The theme I’ve seen over the course of umpteen years studying this issue is: Never f*ck with the money.

  • #242810

    jeb2886
    Member

    Neight of you seem to realize how unevenly distributed the wealth across the world is. Even in the US, if you had 100K in your bank account, you would probably by in the top 2% already, more people might have 100K in retirement investments, but to leave 100K in a bank account? not many can just leave that laying there.
    You probably think the “rich are getting richer” means people making 1M plus, it means anyone making over 70K/year are getting richer. White collar workers are making more and more, while blue collar are making less and less. Everyone blames it on the CEO’s, but in reality it’s the WHOLE group is sucking more and more from the economy each year, leaving less and less for the rest.
    Cyrus could either screw over the 2% or screw over the 98% who can’t afford a 40% haircut. Clearly keeping the country running is more imporant.

  • #242834

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] Neight of you seem to realize how unevenly distributed the wealth across the world is. ¬† Even in the US, if you had 100K in your bank account, you would probably by in the top 2% already, more people might have 100K in retirement investments, but to leave 100K in a bank account? not many can just leave that laying there.¬† You probably think the “rich are getting richer” means people making 1M plus, it means anyone making over 70K/year are getting richer.¬†¬† White collar workers are making more and more, while blue collar are making less and less.¬† Everyone blames it on the CEO’s, but in reality it’s the WHOLE group is sucking more and more from the economy each year, leaving less and less for the rest.¬†¬† Cyrus could either screw over the 2% or screw over the 98% who can’t afford a 40% haircut.¬† Clearly keeping the country running is more imporant.¬†¬†
    [/QUOTE]
    You are out of your mind! I never thought I would hear something like this coming from “The Land of the Free”. Sounds like Obama has turned the US into the USSR. Seriously, what we’re hearing is 1940’s class warfare in the Eastern Block.
    If someone works harder or smarter and makes money, what’s wrong with that? Why should government be able to take a part of it and give it to lazy bums who don’t want to work? I recommend this video series for you:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dFdKjhgt3k
    Even though parts 2 & 3 talk a little moreabout this class warfare that I’m talking about.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smF1jIxn1TQ
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlNvRBQf4YE

  • #242841

    jeb2886
    Member

    You don’t understand the numbers or how the system works.
    The US economy is essentially a zero sum game. It means if you work harder, you take money from someone else. If you have a room full of 10 people, and there is $1000 on the table and one person takes $991, then the other 9 people get at most $1 each. This is the US economy. The only way for the economy to grow is through productivity increases, each person needs to put out more work. If you work super hard and make 10 more widgets, you can’t sell them to anyone if their budgets are 100% taken up. If everyone has $1 in their pocket and rent is $1, then it doesn’t matter how hard you work. You can’t make $1 more unless the OTHERS make more as well.
    So when they say the rich are getting richer, it means the poor are getting poorer. And over the last 30 years, their productivity has doubled while their salaries haven’t gone up. The rich are simply skimming more and more off the top. Saying “work harder!” doesn’t work. The economy grows at 2.4% a year, and has for the last 70 years, and this number is…. the same amount of productivity increase over the last 70 years… the two match up for a reason. The economy only grows when everyone puts out more.
    You’ve been trained by the news to think people are lazy and can earn more by working harder. This is true when you look at the individual, but the majority of the country can’t do this. Over the years, this compounds and the poor get wacked the hardest. Look at the numbers.
    You think it’s class warefare. You’re pointing to news and discussions and work ethic. Look at the numbers and THEN apply logic to it.
    Capitalism only works when there are checks and balances, and right now, the rich are digging deeply into the economy. It’s important to be paid more as an incentive, but you need checks and balances.
    Ever wonder why people felt richer in the 70’s and earlier? More of the pie was going back to them, the rich were taking less. Now they’re taking more and more.
    Buying homes and renting htem out is the worst thing you can do to the economy. It’s dead money. It provides absolutely nothing extra for the economy other than a temporary place for people to live. It’s the quickest and easiest way to extract income from the economy. I have many properties, because I know this is the case.
    Know the rules, then play by the rules.

  • #242856

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] Know the rules, then play by the rules.
    [/QUOTE]
    The economy is zero sum? It’s global nowadays… so I don’t really see how your logic fits here. Nowadays, it’s about Boeing -vs- Airbus, and the same for everything else, and usually national governments backing these large companies in some way. About the other stuff, you are blabbing nothing but Obamma communist dribble that nobody would have ever said 20-30 years ago. I’m generation X, so to us, it was all about working “smarter” and not harder. I like to think that I do.
    How are the “rich” taking from you?
    If you have several properties, then surely you understand that $100k isn’t very much anymore. You say something and then contradict yourself.If you think people were richer in the 70s, you are right. Why? Because before Nixon, the dollar was worth a heck of a lot more. You can only blame the politicians and bureaucrats for this, and for all the sheeple who said nothing as 3-4 more WARS were waged after this time. And the SHEEPLE actually buy into the government statistics about the “low cost” of the war and even the body count. All governments lie so badly and only SHEEPLE believe them.
    Jeez Luiz, discussing this with you is about like teaching English to a Brazilian! If you lived outside of the US for a long time, you would see almost everything I’m talking about as clear as day! But the only way to see it is to get outside of the Amero-media-bubble.
    spongebob2013-03-26 16:43:44

  • #242859

    jeb2886
    Member

    Look up the stats. Your logic is “I don’t get it, can’t be true”. Your ideas are true in theory, but the numbers over the last 70 years say otherwise. It’s POSSIBLE for a global economy to change things but it doesn’t work that way. We’re running a VERY minor deficit compared with total GDP. Which is where you’re failing. 15T economy with a few billion a month deficit? Basically we’re trading out what we’re bringing in. T and B are very different.
    100K isn’t very much to me. 100K for the average US citizen is a lot though. Don’t put ME in the same category. I’m not contradicting myself, you’re confused because I’m saying shoot the rich in the foot, and I’m also saying shoot myself in the foot.
    People were richer in the 70’s becuase they took more home from the GDP than they do today. The GDP keeps growing, while the average wage does not.
    You’re pointing out “well we can change this one thing and it’s all good!” “Global economy!” These are all points you’re making that on their own make sense. When you look at the GDP, growth and productivity they show 0 gains here. Study the numbers.
    If you graph the GDP, you’ll see it doesn’t move, ever. Doesn’t matter if there are wars, democrats, republicans, recession or boom. It doesn’t move. Yes it “does” move, but the move is like $100 to $100.01 during a boom and $99.99 during a recession. I think we can both agree that those numbers are the same for statistical purposes.
    The US works out to be a zero sum game, and that’s where we are, it’s been a constant number for 70 years, and that is it.
    Arguing with you is like arguing with a fox news viewer. BUT the republicans say work harder and you’ll make more! Taxes are bad. Need tax cuts for the rich, that will help things out! Must be all those lazy people doing nothing outt here…..

  • #242869

    More food for thought from the ‘Sovereign Man’ site….
    To anyone paying attention, reality isnow painfully obvious. These bankrupt, insolvent governments have just aboutrun out of fingers to plug the dikes. And history shows that, once thishappens, governments fall back on a very limited playbook:
    1) Direct confiscation.As Cyprus showedus, bankrupt governments are quite happy to plunder people’s bank accounts,especially if it’s a wealthy minority.
    Aside from bank levies, though, this alsoincludes things like seizing retirement accounts (Argentina), increases incivil asset forfeiture (United States), and gold criminalization.
    2) Taxes.Just another form ofconfiscation, taxation plunders the hard work and talent of the citizenry. Butthanks to decades of brainwashing, it’s more socially acceptable. We’ve come toregard taxes as a ‘necessary evil,’ not realizing that the country existed fordecades, even centuries, without an income tax.
    Yet when bankrupt governments getdesperate enough, they begin imposing new taxes… primarily WEALTH taxes(Argentina) or windfall profits taxes (United States in the 1970s).
    3) Inflation.This is indirectconfiscation– the slow, gradual plundering of people’s savings. Again,governments have been quite successful at inculcating a belief that inflationis also a necessary evil. They’re also adept at fooling people with phonyinflation statistics.
    4) Capital Controls.Governments can, do,and will restrict the free-flow of capital across borders. They’ll prevent youfrom moving your own money to a safer jurisdiction, forcing you to keep yourhard earned savings at home where it can be plundered and devalued.
    We’re seeing this everywhere in thedeveloped world… from withdrawal limits in Europe (and in Brasil for those with ‘International’ debit cards) to cash-sniffing dogs atborder checkpoints. And it certainly doesn’t help when everyone from the IMF toNobel laureate Paul Krugman argue in favor of Capital Controls.
    5) Wage and Price controls.When even thelowest common denominator in society realizes that prices are getting higher,governments step in and ‘fix’ things by imposing price controls.
    Occasionally this also includes wagecontrols… though wage increases tend to be vastly outpaced by priceincreases.
    Of course, as any basic economicstextbook can illustrate, price controls never work and typically lead toshortages and massive misallocations.

    6) Wage and Price controls– on STEROIDS.When the first round of price controls don’t work, the next step is to imposesevere penalties for not abiding by the terms.
    In the days of Diocletian’s Edict onPrices in the 4th century AD, any Roman caught violating the price controls wasput to death.
    In post-revolutionary France, shopkeeperswho violated the “Law of Maximum” were fleeced of their privateproperty… and a national spy system was put into place to enforce themeasures.
    7) Increased regulation.Despite beingcompletely broke, governments will dramatically expand their ranks in a lastdesperate gasp to envelop the problem in sheer size.
    In the early 1920s, for example, thenumber of bureaucratic officials in the Weimar Republic increased 242%, eventhough the country was flat broke from its Great War reparation payments andhyperinflation episode.
    The increase in both regulations andgovernment officials criminalizes and/or controls almost every aspect of ourexistence… from what we can/cannot put in our bodies to how we are allowed toraise our own children.
    8) War. National Emergency.When all elsefails, just invade another country. Pick a fight. Keep people distracted bywork them into a frenzy over men in caves… or some completely irrelevantisland.

  • #242946

    Gilmour
    Member

    jkennedy, I don’t have FOX news (or maybe I do?) on Sky, LIVING HERE, FAR AWAY FROM THE US, IN BRAZIL. Seriously, your points are just 1 tick away from being totally un-understandable.
    Here’s my last point: I VOTE to take 20% of jkennedy’s net worthaway from him! He’s American. He’s a “Patriot”. He’s a cool guy! Take it!
    Do you like it now? This is what’s going on nowadays.

  • #242948

    Gilmour
    Member

    Espirit-lipa – Sovereign man just fits the US-style website to make people angry.

  • #242952

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob] Espirit-lipa –
    [/QUOTE]
    Please don’t tell me that you are suggesting that Esprit and GF are one and the same?
    Paulistano USA2013-03-27 08:35:15

  • #242958

    tech-spec
    Member

    World Economics: Brazilian Real’s fair value to Dollar is R$2.80 (41% overvalued)


    Brazilian Real’s fair value

  • #243013

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]Brazilian Real’s fair value to Dollar is R$2.80 (41% overvalued)[/QUOTE]George Soros taught the Bank of England that in the long run it is impossible to defend an impossible exchange rate.

  • #243042

    jeb2886
    Member

    Bob do you understand money at all? You talk about get quick rich scheme with forex, where no work is actually performed, you talk about fox news talking points and then claims I make no sense?
    Money does not equal wealth. Wealth is the difference in value between yourself and your neighbours. Your idea to take “my money” shows you have no idea of what is being done in cypress or what I tried to explain. You’re set on work harder, make more money. Ignore the stats, ignore the real world. If everyone at the top loses money, they aren’t losing wealth, as it is happening to everyone.

  • #243044

    jeb2886
    Member

    @oil&gas
    That seems pretty reasonable without checking any numbers. China and India can export easily because they are far under valued. Germany and other stronger EU countries is over valued, but can survive by exporting to others stuck in the euro.
    Brazil seems pretty over valued compared to others. With inflation where it is, interest rates where they are, and currency values still growing year over year.
    Japan sounds about right. They do a lot of currency manipulation, but they have a very closed society, stable population and a culture that can work with what the government is doing. They have good social services, medical care and jobs. They have many issues, but whenever they do end up with a currency flame out, they will have everything setup to get back on their feet really quickly.

  • #243058

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] Bob do you understand money at all?¬† You talk about get quick rich scheme with forex, where no work is actually performed, you talk about fox news talking points and then claims I make no sense?Money does not equal wealth.¬† Wealth is the difference in value between yourself and your neighbours.¬†¬† Your idea to take “my money” shows you have no idea of what is being done in cypress or what I tried to explain.¬† You’re set on work harder, make more money.¬† Ignore the stats, ignore the real world. If everyone at the top loses money, they aren’t losing wealth, as it is happening to everyone.
    [/QUOTE]
    Just because I say trading, you equate it to getting rich quick. It doesn’t work that way. I do it every day. I love it. No employees, no headaches. This week alone, I’ve made (lemme check).. 126.354 pips on 4 trades, 0 losers. ($10 or alittle more per pip). I’ll say the performance, but the dollar values are secret, and trust me, I’m not getting rich because I’m using relatively little money thanks to Uncle Satã’s taxing policy of citizens abroad. See why I don’t care for America! I sure with Hpeakwould see this thread….
    Anyway, I paid my dues to get where I am. Any trader will know what I’m talking about. I’m actually thinking of a way to go public, like on Zulutrade and THEN I’ll be surprised if some large trading outfit DOESN’T try to contract me. I’ll happily go back to Europe, but I wouldn’t go back to the US for anything less than 1 million/year, a super hot secretary to distract me, and benefits out the ying-yang.
    Also, my undergrad degree is business with an MBA. My favourite subject is Economics. I just use my judgement and experience to come to the conclusion that all governments lie and they use the media to control the people. It’s just a fact of life. If you wish to know more about me, feel free to ask. You don’t need to go off on a tirade.
    Oh, just one last lying statistic and just another example of how ALL governments lie, even Uncle Satã: The number of Americans who gave up US Citizenship. Every quarter, they publish a list, but some good researchers sniff out other sources that point at glaring discrepencies. Everybody is always skeptical of this statistic.
    spongebob2013-03-27 14:12:55

  • #243059

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA] [QUOTE=spongebob] Espirit-lipa –
    [/QUOTE]
    Please don’t tell me that you are suggesting that Esprit and GF are one and the same?
    [/QUOTE]
    Naah.. my hunch is that Espirit is one of the people named in a different thread.

  • #243066

    815
    Member

    Esprit is so unique that I just can’t see him being anybody else.

  • #243141

    SFO Murphy
    Member

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA]Esprit is so unique that I just can’t see him being anybody else. [/QUOTE]

    Indeed, nobody here is working so feverishly on creating his own character, just for the “benefit” of a few dozen regularly visiting members of this site, plus their legions of sock puppet companions.

  • #243146

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Kitten][QUOTE=Paulistano USA]Esprit is so unique that I just can’t see him being anybody else. [/QUOTE]

    Indeed, nobody here is working so feverishly on creating his own character, just for the “benefit” of a few dozen regularly visiting members of this site, plus their legions of sock puppet companions.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ifanybody is working feverishly it is the virgin queen troll, wriggling herattention seeking fat pussy to no effect. Having little understanding of themeaning of character she displays her lack of it by continually stalking mewith intent to wound or worse.

    Perhapsshe‚Äôs subconsciously embroiled in a dysfunctional subdivision of sadomasochism;seeking respect through the infliction of pain? Or perhaps she‚Äôs just a sadunderachiever needing anonymous love and affection? If this is the case, I mhappy to expose an important part of my anatomy to kerb her lust by suggestingthat she tenderly Póg mo thóin.

  • #243154

    Gilmour
    Member

    yup, “sock puppet” is favorite word of a few people on here. Time to breakout the Sherlock pipe.

  • #243159

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]yup, “sock puppet” is favorite word of a few people on here. Time to breakout the Sherlock pipe.
    [/QUOTE]

    Inthe final analysis, Sponge, why the preoccupation with trolls and sock puppets?They are of little consequence other than perhaps a source of amusement;provided of course that they are not taken too seriously.

    Oflate the forum has, for me, lost its lustre because of this focus on trolling.

  • #243161

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit] Of late the forum has, for me, lost its lustre because of this focus on trolling. [/QUOTE]
    Feeling some heat now, are we? Don’t worry, I won’t expose you on here, publically. But now I’m 100% sure of who you are.
    Ahh, I just come here when I feel like complaining about Brazil. I can’t figure out why I even engage in JKennedy’esque discussion where every point is followed by a contradiction. Anyway, take it for what it is: a place to bitch about stuff or talk about hillbilly stuff with other people.

  • #243162

    SFO Murphy
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit] [QUOTE=Kitten][QUOTE=Paulistano USA]Esprit is so unique that I just can’t see him being anybody else. [/QUOTE]

    Indeed, nobody here is working so feverishly on creating his own character, just for the “benefit” of a few dozen regularly visiting members of this site, plus their legions of sock puppet companions.

    [/QUOTE] If anybody is working feverishly it is the virgin queen troll, wriggling her attention seeking fat pussy to no effect. [/QUOTE] So sad to witness.Reduced to commentary On member’s icons.

  • #243163

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Kitten]

     

    So sad to witness.

    Reduced to commentary

    On member’s icons.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]
    Grantham, aka USALLTHEWAY, do you have any other activities to do?????
    spongebob2013-03-27 23:28:06

  • #243175

    Quasi-back on topic: So Long Yankees!  China and Brazil Ditch US Dollar
    http://www.ibtimes.com/so-long-yankees-china-brazil-ditch-us-dollar-trade-deal-brics-summit-1153415#

  • #243180

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Quasi-back on topic: So Long Yankees!  China and Brazil Ditch US Dollar
    http://www.ibtimes.com/so-long-yankees-china-brazil-ditch-us-dollar-trade-deal-brics-summit-1153415#
    [/QUOTE]
    cool article. China is inking these deals with everyone. I think the last one was with Russia that hit the headlines. Personally, I think it’s “chest pounding 3rd-world style.”
    Here’s why: At the end of the day, markets are concerned about two things:
    1. Risk– the US dollar has been around for a while now. Even during the riskiestperiods of the past 20 or so years, what was the safe haven? USD.
    2. Price– at the end of the day, they have to be able to put a value on their currency and they need another currency to determine that value, be it Euros or USD. Else, they have to agree upon a value and freeze it to that value, peg the Yuan to the Real, which I HIGHLY doubt will ever happen. Pegs often fail when extremes come into the markets. And since I’m a huge believer in Murphy’s Law, I see this as highly unworkable.
    You guys know, I’m no flag waiver, but I can pin down a propaganda piece when I see one. But it will be fun to see how it unfolds. Since I believe in doing the opposite of what they say in the media, I believe there will be a Real crash in the next 1-2 years.
    Disclaimer:I’m just kidding around with this. I don’t have any investment in Reais or Dollars. My trading is based 100% on charts, and not Fundamental Analysis that is mostly wrong because there is always some unaccounted for variable.
    spongebob2013-03-28 01:00:00

  • #243196

    IMO, the RMB won’t replace the USD (anytime soon), yet it’s nonetheless conceivable that within the next decade the two curencies could become a sort of ying and yang in trade settlements. The USD won’t cease to exist, but it’s reputation and clout as THE global currency will be greatly diminished, and have no choice but to share the stage.

  • #243201

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    IMO, the RMB won’t replace the USD (anytime soon), yet it’s nonetheless conceivable that within the next decade the two curencies could become a sort of ying and yang in trade settlements. The USD won’t cease to exist, but it’s reputation and clout as THE global currency will be greatly diminished, and have no choice but to share the stage.
    [/QUOTE]
    The Euro is toast. 40% losses for bsnk accounts in Cypress is just a start. China is big dirt poor with no farmland.
    US is turning around with record oil and gas production.
    Brazil is sinkinng under Dilma inflation price controls burocracia and custo Brasil.
    2,80 for the Real is coming.

  • #243205

    I agree with you guy. Dollar sometime look like bad investment but country very strong. Brazil very complicated. USA much better. I also think R$ 2,80 is too much low.

  • #243289

    jeb2886
    Member

    #1 thing from that article is “30B/year”. Sure they might be exchanging each others currencies, but it’s at such a low rate that they can run at any time they want to the USD.
    While the US might have some strange politicians, it’s essentially guaranteed what they will do. The Yuan on the other hand has 0 guarantees. They aren’t doing things for power, they have ultimate power. They aren’t doing things for money, they control everything that makes money. They’re doing it for the “future”. The future means anything today can easily switch to make it better tomorrow, and that is just terrifying for anyone doing business.
    The Yuan won’t ever be a goto currency, until something major happens over there and the whole democratic process becomes extremely transparent. And that isn’t going to happen any time soon. It might be traded without the USD, but only because it’s easy enough to find someone to swap with quickly in your home country. That way, no one person is every holding the hot potato for very long. They sell something to China, then hand over that currency to someone wanting to buy something from China and now it’s back to $0 Yuan held in the country.
    The Euro hasn’t been able to print it’s way out of trouble. It’s basically like the gold standard, and a good example of what happens on the gold standard when the country is up against the wall. Either the rich walk away with everything, or they all get a one time big tax to make things right again.

  • #243333

    Gilmour
    Member

    Link from other thread posted here for Jkennedy.
    This is one of two trading accounts that I trade with almost daily. You call it get-rich-quick. Here’s the proof that it’s not.
    http://www.myfxbook.com/members/spongebob_brazil/mt4-1/526378
    By the way, the link is permanent. Anyone can see it. And the results are unadulterable. Don’t ever accept an excel spreadsheet.
    spongebob2013-03-28 15:45:12

  • #243336

    815
    Member

    Sponge, the link only seems to duplicate this page.

  • #243341

    Gilmour
    Member

    fixed, thanks.
    Hopefully next time people will just simply ask for proof instead of saying that something is “impossible” (I hate that word!). Next goal: learn how to move objects with brain only.

  • #243343

    815
    Member

    I applaud thee!

  • #243946

    Gilmour
    Member

    At least according to yahoo finance, the Real is 2,01. Let’s see if the trend is going to continue….

  • #243967

    The ‘trend’, IMO, will largely depend on how people in Cyprus will allow the new ‘rules’ for access to their bank accounts to remain so stifling.
    Read this article: Edgy Calm as Cyprus Banks Reopen
    Because it’s such a small country, things might stay calm in Cyprus. But can you imagine if this happens in Spain? They’d be rioting in the streets. Summer is soon to arrive in the northern hemisphere, the rise in temperature causes tempers also to rise.
    And maybe the Real too….
    Gringo.Floripa2013-04-01 10:44:32

  • #244005

    jeb2886
    Member

    Hmm interesting, I would think spains high umemployement rate and poverty lead protests would probably eclipse anything from people with over 100K in their accounts.
    I’m guessing that people with 100K in their accounts protesting would just set themselves up to be mugged by that large unemployed young crowd….

  • #244032

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Hmm interesting, I would think spains high umemployement rate and poverty lead protests would probably eclipse anything from people with over 100K in their accounts. [/QUOTE]
    So imagine if the two groups combine in the streets….

  • #244034

    jeb2886
    Member

    One group who says stop the rich, and help us and the small group of those holding over 100K in accounts saying stop the poor, cut their social security nets and protect our money!
    Dunno, I don’t see the rich leaving their homes for this. Not to mention they’ll be out numbered by a huge margin, and they will be all older people, vs the unemployed younger generation who is going to be a lot more aggressive than the older ones.

  • #244035

    Yet on a rare conjunction of the planets, diverse classes can unite, when the gov’t is their common enemy. I think of the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. Originally organized by just students, the city residents soon broadly backed the protests.
    It was only the fist of military might that broke it up. I LOVE the video of the lone student openly defying a tank. Such amazing bravery!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-nXT8lSnPQ

  • #244036

    jeb2886
    Member

    Um, the two groups weren’t opposing each other in China. In the spain example, the two groups are opposing each other telling the government to help them by basically going after the other group for concessions.
    In essence, each group wants the government to fix itself by going after the other group. I don’t see those groups uniting… This is a competely different situation.

  • #244041

    So you can’t imagine where a totally bankrupt gov’t will have no choice other than to cut benefits AND give a ‘haircut’ to people’s savings, in order to stay afloat, thus pissing off both groups? It’s quite plausible, and I think we’ll indeed see this happen.
    Gringo.Floripa2013-04-01 17:23:02

  • #244043

    jeb2886
    Member

    No, you’re right, they will. Just like how cyprus played out!
    Very well played by Cyprus indeed.
    Tell the rich they’re going to get a haircut, watch them get riled up.
    Next step, tell the poor, oh you need one too. Watch the sh*t hit the roof.
    Back out the poor haircut, now they’re quiet. The rich understand there is no support for them, and the government now pushes that rate to 40%.
    Done. Very well played by them!

  • #244066

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]No, you’re right, they will. Just like how cyprus played out!
    Very well played by Cyprus indeed.
    Tell the rich they’re going to get a haircut, watch them get riled up.
    Next step, tell the poor, oh you need one too. Watch the sh*t hit the roof.
    Back out the poor haircut, now they’re quiet. The rich understand there is no support for them, and the government now pushes that rate to 40%.
    Done. Very well played by them!
    [/QUOTE]

    Spokenlike a fully paid up member of the great unwashed.

  • #244068

    doctorlili
    Member

    Frank, Diamonds? Of all things! Those can now be made synthetically much purer than natural. You don’t want to put your assets into a carbon based molecule.
    But good news on topic (for me anyway) is that the BRL is giving way to the USD again.Squiddie2013-04-01 19:37:34

  • #244077

    doctorlili
    Member

    That’s why I would not invest in “us” either. A company, yes. Gold isn’t. But so far I have not started that. It feels overpriced since the recession times started.

  • #244081

    jeb2886
    Member

    If you want metals, go for things like platinum. Used in many industries and thus has a specific value that is backed by companies. Not that hard to purchase or sell either.
    Although you lose probably 10% on buying and 10% on selling, so you have to make a killing on it, or hold it for a long time or know someone who will buy/sell at spot prices.
    Personally, I prefer land. It follows inflation and can produce rent on the side. If a currency turns upside down, the land will still sell for the same amount in the “new” currency. If the land was bought by Plumbers, then Plumbers will offer the same amount for it, just in the new currency.

  • #244087

    doctorlili
    Member

    agreed, RE rulesSquiddie2013-04-01 21:56:53

  • #244131

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Thesounds of a bowling alley have already started to rumble in Cyprus as headsbegin to roll. The latest high profile victim is the finance minister, MichaelSarris, former head of headof the country’s second-largest bank, Laiki, whose high risk undertakings wereof significance cause in the country‚Äôs financial collapse. It is said that thedepositors in that bank having trusted deposits over of ‚Ǩ100K may lose up to60%. Some of those depositors are retired Brits that sold up in the UK toretire in Cyprus warmer climate. Yep, it‚Äôs warmer in Euro hell.

  • #244241

    tech-spec
    Member

    .“Leading (not!): Brazil ranks 107th out of 144 countries assessed for the quality of their infrastructure”

    “Worrying less about their pockets and more about the country‚Äôs well being should be every Brazilian politician‚Äôs top priority.
    Easier said than done though”
    Brazil ranks 107th out of 144 countries assessed for the quality of their infrastructure
    Finaly some good information here (pages 116/117):
    Global Competitiveness Report


    oil&gas2013-04-03 06:51:19

  • #244243

    graham
    Participant

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]
    .“Leading (not!): Brazil ranks 107th out of 144 countries assessed for the quality of their infrastructure”

    “Worrying less about their pockets and more about the country‚Äôs well being should be every Brazilian politician‚Äôs top priority.
    Easier said than done though”
    Brazil ranks 107th out of 144 countries assessed for the quality of their infrastructure
    Finaly some good information here (pages 116/117):
    Global Competitiveness Report


    [/QUOTE]
    Excellent report. Major world indicies are clearly presented. Anyone with interest and having the time should give it a look.
    Thanks for posting these links, oil&gas.
    edit: Should be required reading for all Brasilians, or at least those who can make a difference.
    2nd edit: Also, for those considering Brasil as a place of residence, report provides objective comparative picture about where Brasil ranks in the world. Grads2013-04-03 07:02:52

  • #244247

    Amazing such an extensive and voluminous report is available for free! Thanks for the gift O&G.
    Did you note that out of the top five problematic factors for doing business in Brasil, three are due to burro-cracia? Even worse (supposedly) than corruption.
    EDIT: Meaning, Brasil could be vastly improved by a revolutionary change in mindset, which costs very little, but oh so difficult to acheive….

    Gringo.Floripa2013-04-03 09:18:06

  • #244258

    tech-spec
    Member

    Some more Global Competitiveness Reports, just to compare and to see if Brazil is improving (or not).
    Report 2011-2012 (pag. 126/127)- 2011-2012
    Report 2010-2011 (pag. 106/107)- 2010-2011
    Report 2009-2010 (pag. 109/110)- 2009-2010
    If you open each report in a dif. Tab, on the right pages, it’s easy to compare, just swich from one to another.
    Compare things like “Higher Education” etc.
    Earlier reports are easy to find with Google.

  • #244262

    tech-spec
    Member

    I just opened 2009-2010 and 2012-2013 and compared some.
    Comparing Brazil 2009 with Brazil 2012 and with 133 countries (2009) and 144 countries (2012)
    Bad news for the taxpayer.

  • #244268

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    I don’t usually post youtube links but I can’t stop laughing:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukewr16HFAw
    yeah I know, soy beans, embraer and iron ore …

  • #244272

    Patigell
    Member

    [QUOTE=jacare] I don’t usually post youtube links but I can’t stop laughing:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukewr16HFAwyeah I know, soy beans, embraer and iron ore …
    [/QUOTE]
    haha that was classic!

  • #244276

    doctorlili
    Member

    This is very funny indeed. Their voices make it even funnier.

  • #244278

    doctorlili
    Member
  • #244281

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=KL Gringo] [QUOTE=jacare] I don’t usually post youtube links but I can’t stop laughing:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukewr16HFAwyeah I know, soy beans, embraer and iron ore …
    [/QUOTE]
    haha that was classic![/QUOTE]

  • #244286

    [QUOTE=jacare] I don’t usually post youtube links but I can’t stop laughing[/QUOTE]
    OMG! Hilarious!!! How can we get that sent to Dilma?!?
    But in all due fairness, the export of Havaianas has to count for something, don’t ya think???
    Gringo.Floripa2013-04-03 12:50:23

  • #244291

    doctorlili
    Member

    Otário (do canal) claims that Brazil does export suas carossas, and sell them for a reasonable price in Argentina and as far as México. Only Brazilians get ripped off on the deal methinks.

  • #244366

    tech-spec
    Member

    The burst of the bubble:
    RE prices

  • #244369

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Squiddie] Otário (do canal) claims that Brazil does export suas carossas, and sell them for a reasonable price in Argentina and as far as México. Only Brazilians get ripped off on the deal methinks.[/QUOTE]
    Yes, Brazil exports the Ford Ecosport free of taxes and it sells in Argentina for about 40./ 50% less.

  • #244421

    jeb2886
    Member

    Now this is aggressive. Japan pumping 2.84T in over 2 years. That is about the equivalent of the US dumping in 15.5T per capita anyway. NOW we’re talking some serious numbers.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/04/us-japan-economy-boj-idUSBRE93216U20130404

  • #245038

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]The BRICS countries can choose asset deflation or currency devaluation. China is likely in the first category. Brazil and India will likely fall into the second.The growth difficulties of the emerging economies will be the main source of global instability in 2013. They may drag the global economy back into recession.
    Until then, Brazil may remain an expensive country, but just watch for the future signs of a Real weakeningand you’ll see what’s in store. Bubbles correct themselves and usually tend to reverse prices to the mean.[/quote]
    Why the BRICs bubble is popping slowly

  • #245129

    tech-spec
    Member

    Inflation and tomatoes ?
    [quote]”Federal Police tried to arrest drug traffickers smuggling narcotics under 500 kilos of tomatoes. The drug dealers fled, leaving behind the cocaine and taking all the tomatoes,[/quote]
    São Paulo: restaurateurs see red over tomato prices

  • #245172

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]Inflation and tomatoes ?
    [quote]”Federal Police tried to arrest drug traffickers smuggling narcotics under 500 kilos of tomatoes. The drug dealers fled, leaving behind the cocaine and taking all the tomatoes,[/quote]
    [/QUOTE]
    Well, in Japan, a watermelon, in fact anymelon, an entire one, can set you back quite a few yen!
    Saw this yesterday; an interesting read: Why Japan is the most interesting story in global economics right now

  • #245299

    agri2001
    Participant

    Now I know why they went after little Cyprus, what they really wanted was the big fish in the pond Luxembourg.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-luxembourg-banks-idUSBRE93908V20130410
    I wander why no one has said anything about the Cayman islands where they are 272 times their GDP, but I suppose that has everything to do with the City of London having everything under control there.
    agri20012013-04-10 19:28:09

  • #245301

    jeb2886
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001]Now I know why they went after little Cyprus, what they really wanted was the big fish in the pond Luxembourg.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-luxembourg-banks-idUSBRE93908V20130410
    I wander why no one has said anything about the Cayman islands where they are 272 times their GDP, but I suppose that has everything to do with the City of London having everything under control there.
    [/QUOTE]
    It comes down to who is in trouble, why they’re in trouble and what is the best/easiest way to get out of trouble. Each country has to come up with a solution. One solution does not fit all.

  • #245302

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    [QUOTE=agri2001]Now I know why they went after little Cyprus, what they really wanted was the big fish in the pond Luxembourg.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-luxembourg-banks-idUSBRE93908V20130410
    I wander why no one has said anything about the Cayman islands where they are 272 times their GDP, but I suppose that has everything to do with the City of London having everything under control there.
    [/QUOTE]It comes down to who is in trouble, why they’re in trouble and what is the best/easiest way to get out of trouble. Each country has to come up with a solution.¬†¬† One solution does not fit all.[/QUOTE]
    Yes but accept for the fact is that Luxembourg is not in financial trouble, it all amounts to looking into those accounts.
    Another note, Luxembourg can exit the EU without any pain at all.

  • #245304

    jeb2886
    Member

    Cyrpus didn’t take the action it took because everything was fine. They needed to solve a problem, they found a good solution and implemented it.
    Luxembourg could go through all those accounts, but why? Right now, they’re good for the country. If they become horrendously cancerous, they’ll do something aggressive.

  • #245306

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] Cyrpus didn’t take the action it took because everything was fine.¬† They needed to solve a problem, they found a good solution and implemented it.Luxembourg could go through all those accounts, but why?¬† Right now, they’re good for the country.¬†¬† If they become horrendously cancerous, they’ll do something aggressive.¬†
    [/QUOTE]
    Cyprus is a done deal, whether it was fair or not only time will tell, but Cyprus was no more then a guinea pig of whats to come in the very near future.
    Now as far as your comment “Luxembourg could go through all those accounts” I really don understand what you are referring to.
    Luxembourg does not have the same problems as Cyprus or any other EU country. I am sure you are aware that they have one of the largest standard of living in the world and all because of their banking sector which is very healthy.

  • #245310

    jeb2886
    Member

    I meant Lux COULD do something similar, but they have no reason to. Basically what you said there. What Cyprus did was basically said “Don’t use our banking sector”. They will now have a very hard time getting depositors, but on the flip side they won’t have to deal with masses of banking fraud and large deposits from russians.
    It’s an effective way of getting rid of the problem, without trying to create any legislature. This single act basically blocks banks from redoing what they did. It also blocks the government from raiding their coffers in the future to pay for luxuries they can’t afford.
    It’s unlikely any larger countries will try and pull this off. One more country might try it, but then everyone will be trigger happy and will do a run on the banks. Fool me once… shame on you… Investors won’t be caught in this situation again.

  • #245318

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    [QUOTE=agri2001]Now I know why they went after little Cyprus, what they really wanted was the big fish in the pond Luxembourg.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-luxembourg-banks-idUSBRE93908V20130410
    I wander why no one has said anything about the Cayman islands where they are 272 times their GDP, but I suppose that has everything to do with the City of London having everything under control there.
    [/QUOTE]It comes down to who is in trouble, why they’re in trouble and what is the best/easiest way to get out of trouble. Each country has to come up with a solution.¬†¬† One solution does not fit all.[/QUOTE]
    The Cypress banks bought boatloads of Greek Bonds which went under, hence the 60% write down on the 100k euro plus accounts.

  • #245322

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]
    The Cypress banks bought boatloads of Greek Bonds which went under, hence the 60% write down on the 100k euro plus accounts.
    [/QUOTE]

    Nothingwrong with that statement other than it needs clarification in order to revealthe sinister goings on in the fight to preserve the Euro as a currency; an ill-conceivedcurrency that is presently tearing Europe apart. Without delving into the devilof the detail, suffice it to say that it was pure folly to expect all of themember countries with their wildly differing cultures, business practices,politics and language, to operate with a single currency and single interestrate. Of course, in the beginning it was as if Christmas was every day; giftsand borrowing and debt bubbles, all of which is now documented history.

    Ofimmediate relevance to this thread is the debt, or rather the cost of servicingthe debt. In the case of Cyprus, an insignificant little turd of a country, itsbanking sector was, as it were, making hay while the sun shone and taking fulladvantage of Greece and its major problem with borrowing money to sustainitself. The yield on Greek sovereign debt, or bonds, was skyrocketing and atone point it became crazy and approaching 35%. Cyprus meanwhile was buying upthis junk in the fond hope that a bailout from the European Central Bank wouldprevent a Greek default. In the process the Cypriot banks could offer veryattractive returns to their depositors while slicing off a good margin forthemselves.

    Nowenter the dragon and the men in black, the bailout boys. Troika said that the Greekbond holders must take a haircut. This left Cyprus holding a load of crap andunable to fully service its commitments. The poor bastards were forced toswallow a bitter pill: inaddition to having austerity imposed, they were in effect forced by the troikato bail-in a bank that failed because of government bonds it bought that weredevalued by another bail-out negotiated by the same troika; a game of pass theparcel in a Micky Mouse pantomime. Of course that parcel was finally handed tothe depositors who will lose 60% of their money to those self-righteous, self-appointedthieving sons of bitches.

    The Euro is bouncing, likethe mad hatter, from one crisis to another while several countries are in reallydesperate straits; massive unemployment, contracting economies and cutbacks inservices while denying a generation of their rightful quality of life. When,finally the peoples of Europe realise that their problems are seated in theEuro as a currency, the ballot boxes will displace the nincompoops in Brussels.

  • #245330

    jeb2886
    Member

    The only thing I would add is those depositors were reaping the high interest rates of the Cyprus banks while it lasted. Without risk, there is no reward. They got bit, risk got them. It’s not like “poor depositors, you got screwed!” it’s more like “greedy depositors got screwed by greedy banks”. So be it.
    The Euro is locking countries into debt and interest rates they can’t afford, so they’re doing exactly what they should. At least Greece and Cyprus have. The Euro can survive, it’s just that these countries that work on a system where economic boom and bust cycles are fixed by altering the currency, need to find new ways to handle the boom and busts.
    Normally a country devalues it’s debt by printing currency, thereby wiping out all creditors. Now they can’t do that, so they default. Same end result, they wipe their slates clean. We’re just not used to countries defaulting, they normally devalue their currency until it’s worthless and then start over.

  • #245334

    doctorlili
    Member

    … Meanwhile in Brasilia or São Paulo a few self-righteous officials decided they did not like the BRL USD to reach 2.05 again, so they wished it more like 1.95, and somehow their mere wish always gets instantly fulfilled

  • #245340

    I’m telling ya Squid, most of the Congress and Senate in Brasilia, and probably most members of BACEN too, all purchased an apartment (or several) in Miami in 2009/2010, and now their last payments are coming due. Until they pay these off, we can expect the Real to stay strong. Cry
    The only wild card is if the economy in Europe goes up in flames this summer….

  • #245371

    jeb2886
    Member

    A government can take large measures to keep it’s currency where it “wants” but those measures can’t really be used for fine tuning. 1.95 to 2.10 is fine tuning. 1.5 to 2, or 2 to 2.5 are the kinds of changes they’re good at.
    The US will probably take the spot light this summer with housing going nuts, renovations taking off like wild fire and construction going wild. Last house I saw there were 50 people who BID on it. Inside track always wins though… I went to my regular guy for contract work, and he’s got basically the year lined up with massive projects! He’s been just slugging away for the last 4 years, now he’s on fire.
    Europe will likely drag people down, but they’ll start working on more “solutions” and the US will likely keep them out of the spotlight. Everyone will be looking to the US to be buying up more goods. More materials, more home goods, more expensive items.

  • #245680

    jeb2886
    Member

    With all the euro doom and gloom, you would think there would be a huge market for gold buyers, but apparently it’s not so.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-log-biggest-drop-since-the-1980s-2013-04-15?siteid=bnbh
    It looks like investors where speculating with gold… versus them believing it was a good place to store wealth. All the hype about needing to buy gold because everything else is crap, looks like it’s turning out to be a big hoax on the average buyer. A big pump and dump scheme on gold.

  • #245693

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] All the hype about needing to buy gold because everything else is crap, looks like it’s turning out to be a big hoax on the average buyer. A big pump and dump scheme on gold.[/QUOTE]
    There are two key phrases there: “average buyer” and “pump and dump scheme“. The ‘scheme’ is to get the average buyer to panic, dump their gold, price goes down, then the not-so-average buyer (Big Money) picks up the precious metal at a discount. Gold will go down, but it still has a long ways to go up….
    Personally, I’m not a fan of holding precious metals, because I would want it physically near me, not stored in some ‘secure’ facility in Switzerland, Austria, Singapore or Hong Kong. And I’m certainly not going to store it in my house in Brasil! For a SHTF scenario, I think a case of good Scotch and toilet paper will be just as valuable. Wink

  • #245697

    lynchem
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=jkennedy] All the hype about needing to buy gold because everything else is crap, looks like it’s turning out to be a big hoax on the average buyer.¬† A big pump and dump scheme on gold.[/QUOTE]There are two key phrases there: “average buyer” and “pump and dump scheme“.¬† The ‘scheme’ is to get the average buyer to panic, dump their gold, price goes down, then the not-so-average buyer (Big Money) picks up the precious metal at a discount.¬† Gold will go down, but it still has a long ways to go up….Personally, I’m not a fan of holding precious metals, because I would want it physically near me, not stored in some ‘secure’ facility in Switzerland, Austria, Singapore or Hong Kong.¬† And I’m certainly not going to store it in my house in Brasil!¬† For a SHTF scenario, I think a case of good Scotch and toilet paper will be just as valuable.¬† Wink[/QUOTE]
    Logically I agree with the sentiment of your idea; keeping it in front of you, or cash under the mattress.
    But..
    I wonder what will you do instead? Alternatively?

  • #245699

    [QUOTE=Leblon]I wonder what will you do instead? Alternatively? [/QUOTE]
    Productiveland is worth it’s weight in gold! Wink

  • #245701

    jeb2886
    Member

    I would say people pumped gold up to $1700 and now they’re bailing. I’m sure they’ll keep bailing for awhile. It’ll hit support somewhere, but based on all the comotion going on, if gold was a good bet, it would be way beyond 2K right now, but instead it’s tumbling as people get out of it. It’s over valued…. The world isn’t falling apart…
    Your second comment – land, is dead on!
    Land follows inflation, a great place to store wealth. Also if you can generate rent from it, a decent income.

  • #245708

    lynchem
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=Leblon]I wonder what will you do instead? Alternatively? [/QUOTE]Productiveland is worth it’s weight in gold!¬† Wink
    [/QUOTE]
    Are you a slumlord or farmer?

  • #245712

    [QUOTE=Leblon] Are you a slumlord or farmer?[/QUOTE]
    Ahem… the preferred term is “Country Gentleman”. LOL

  • #246344

    Although off-topic, I found this news item to be quite interesting, and it addresses the recently discussed sub-topic of gold: Arizona set to OK gold, silver currency

  • #246356

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Although off-topic, I found this news item to be quite interesting, and it addresses the recently discussed sub-topic of gold: Arizona set to OK gold, silver currency
    [/QUOTE]

    Giventhe current rate of money printing in the US, said to be 89 billion dollars everymonth, one can understand why some would wish to protect themselves from thisdebasement of the currency. Gold cannot the answer however because in the finalanalysis its value is not only measured in currency but its quantity cannotsatisfy the global liquidity requirements.

    Ifind it amusing that all of the worry and gold hoarding doesn’t change its narrowfocus and instead focus in the direction of government and those responsiblefor the problem. Perhaps a coalition of gold hoarders with the gun lobby shouldmarch on Washington to protest the budget overspend and the financial recklessness;what better demonstration of the purpose of the second amendment enshrining theright to bear arms could be implemented? In the end perhaps it should besuggested that we have not the need of better government but the need of abetter electorate.

  • #246377

    jeb2886
    Member

    How about it comes down to greed. Communism would probably be the best system out there, but when you incorporate greed it fails miserably. Capitalism handles greed far better, but it needs constant checks and balances to keep on top of it.
    The real problem is that the real end game to Capitalism is one person holds all the money, and the rest are dead poor. In reality, it’s more like 1% hold all the money and wealth. That is what we’re heading towards, each year the 1% get more of the pie, forcing those others to live with less. A government spending less, or printing less will only make that problem FAR worse. Austerity to protect the rich isn’t the way to go. Printing to undermine the rich isn’t great but is FAR better.

  • #247498

    Two interesting sound bytes taken from a conference last month in Santiago, Chile.
    The first features Ron Pauland Jim Rodgers. The second, Nigel Farage. Listen to what they each have to say, and then file it away, for future reference.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CmqIerOV3EM#!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UZap5n3zGZ8
    The conference was hosted by Sovereign Man. I’ve occasionally referred to the SovMan web site in this thread before. I have no affiliation with Sovereign Man; I don’t even subscribe to their ‘confidential’ new letter. I am merely a curious observer.

  • #247505

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]
    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]Although off-topic, I found this news item to be quite interesting, and it addresses the recently discussed sub-topic of gold: Arizona set to OK gold, silver currency
    [/QUOTE]

    <font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;’>Given
    the current rate of money printing in the US, said to be 89 billion dollars every
    month, one can understand why some would wish to protect themselves from this
    debasement of the currency. Gold cannot the answer however because in the final
    analysis its value is not only measured in currency but its quantity cannot
    satisfy the global liquidity requirements. <?:namespace prefix = o ns = “urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office” /><o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;’>I
    find it amusing that all of the worry and gold hoarding doesn’t change its narrow
    focus and instead focus in the direction of government and those responsible
    for the problem. Perhaps a coalition of gold hoarders with the gun lobby should
    march on Washington to protest the budget overspend and the financial recklessness;
    what better demonstration of the purpose of the second amendment enshrining the
    right to bear arms could be implemented? In the end perhaps it should be
    suggested that we have not the need of better government but the need of a
    better electorate. <span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>

    [/QUOTE]
    Rather than gold, a better value is owning high quality rental units in good neighborhoods. It has always worked well for me.

  • #247900

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]A queda acelerada do saldo comercial, mais intensa que o esperado, levou especialistas a elevarem suas projeções para o deficit do país em suas transações com o resto do mundo.
    Como mais deficit significa menos moeda forte à disposição, já se fala também em elevação da cotação do dólar –o que pode pressionar a inflação e comprometer a incipiente recuperação do crescimento econômico.
    Na ponta mais pessimista do mercado, o banco BNP Paribas divulgou relatório no qual estima perda de US$ 90 bilhões neste ano e de US$ 100 bilhões no próximo nas relações de comércio e serviços do Brasil com o exterior.
    Decorrente de despesas com importações, viagens internacionais, gastos com cartão de crédito internacional, pagamento de juros e remessas de lucros, essa saída de divisas elevaria o dólar para R$ 2,30 até 2014, estima-se.[/quote]
    Mercado prevê piora das contas externas e pressão maior no câmbio

  • #247914

    celso
    Member

    07/05/2013 – 03h00
    Mercado prevê piora das contas externas e pressão maior no câmbio
    PUBLICIDADE
    GUSTAVO PATU
    CAROLINA OMS
    DE BRASÍLIA
    A queda acelerada do saldo comercial, mais intensa que o esperado, levou especialistas a elevarem suas projeções para o deficit do país em suas transações com o resto do mundo.
    Brasil “perde” US$ 6 bilhões em exportações para principais parceiros
    Investimento estrangeiro direto deverá encolher 16%
    Como mais deficit significa menos moeda forte à disposição, já se fala também em elevação da cotação do dólar -o que pode pressionar a inflação e comprometer a incipiente recuperação do crescimento econômico.
    Na ponta mais pessimista do mercado, o banco BNP Paribas divulgou relatório no qual estima perda de US$ 90 bilhões neste ano e de US$ 100 bilhões no próximo nas relações de comércio e serviços do Brasil com o exterior.
    Decorrente de despesas com importações, viagens internacionais, gastos com cartão de crédito internacional, pagamento de juros e remessas de lucros, essa saída de divisas elevaria o dólar para R$ 2,30 até 2014, estima-se.
    “Olhar para as contas externas do Brasil nos dá uma sensação de angústia”, diz o documento do BNP Paribas.
    Ainda que a maioria dos analistas seja menos pessimista, a projeção do Banco Central de um deficit de US$ 67 bilhões tem cada vez menos credibilidade.
    O Bradesco elevou sua projeção de US$ 66 bilhões para US$ 73,5 bilhões; o Safra, de US$ 72 bilhões para US$ 77 bilhões; a consultoria Rosenberg & Associados, de US$ 65 bilhões para US$ 70 bilhões.
    Pelas explicações de economistas como Felipe Salto, da Tendências Consultoria, Andréa Damico, do Bradesco, e Carlos Kawall, do Safra, o Brasil vive uma queda de suas exportações não reversível a curto prazo.
    Tradicionalmente são as vendas de mercadorias para o exterior que seguram as contas externas do país, deficitárias nas demais modalidades. O saldo comercial, no entanto, está desabando.
    “As quantidades exportadas vêm se reduzindo e a recuperação dos preços para os principais produtos da pauta [de exportação] não veio”, diz Salto. Os motivos, diz Kawall, são as barreiras da Argentina a produtos brasileiros e a freada da economia global.
    A expansão do deficit torna o país mais dependente de capital externo, ou seja, de empréstimos, aplicações financeiras ou investimentos de empresas multinacionais.
    Como o BC tem cerca de US$ 400 bilhões em reservas, não há risco visível de insolvência, mas o dólar fica mais escasso. Salto diz que um câmbio de US$ 2,40 comprometeria o crescimento
    Rumblings about 2.30 to 2.40

  • #247967

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Rumblings about 2.30 to 2.40[/QUOTE]
    I don’t want to hear rumblings, I want to see it live!

  • #248099
  • #248100

    lynchem
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Rumblings about 2.30 to 2.40[/QUOTE]I don’t want to hear rumblings, I want to see it live![/QUOTE]
    Yeaaaaaah Buddy!
    For now it’s just: If and when!

  • #248105

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]It’s not just a correction, commodity super-cycle is officially over.
    Druckenmiller says short Australia on commodity bust. We think australian dollar will come down and come down hard.
    This implies that the end may also be nigh for the Brazilian Real and Canadian Dollar.[/quote]
    commodity currencies

  • #248166

    jeb2886
    Member

    We’re still entering a boom cycle, so commodities will likely do pretty well. I suspect China will keep buying, even if it means hoarding.

  • #248201

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] We’re still entering a boom cycle, so commodities will likely do pretty well.¬†¬† I suspect China will keep buying, even if it means hoarding.
    [/QUOTE]
    Wrong, China is looking to other sources for iron ore. Commodity prices remain soft.

  • #248214

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] We’re still entering a boom cycle, so commodities will likely do pretty well.¬†¬†[/QUOTE]
    What Boom (and Ventering”)?
    Did your message took 5 or 6 years after posting to appear here?

  • #248235

    jeb2886
    Member

    Clearly you’re involved in any of the industries that are booming right now. It will take a couple of years to hit everyone, like it always does.

  • #248246

    doctorlili
    Member

    Darn, 2.03 today. I should have transferred yesterday to get this rate. Now I am worried again that any time the manipulators will strike and “prefer” a target range of 1.95 to 2.00.

  • #248264

    Rate of 1.95 or 2.03, very little difference Squid. But inverse that .03 to .30, then it’s time to get a little more excited…. Big%20smile

  • #248847

    doctorlili
    Member

    yes, yes, agreed — although 5% ain’t nothing.
    But I am happy today that we are finally pushing some highs to get out of that hole from February.
    I had wired money and I am staying quiet watching the rate push higher. This is a test: how long do they hold onto the money? It may be a way to control your exchange rate better: wire first and then only when you like the rate, talk to your Bank rep to actually “pull” the money into your account. Now it’s lying around there at Cambio Central and I can even still decide to cancel the transaction and send the money back to myself if I should decide its a bad idea (though that would cost about R$100.)Squiddie2013-05-15 17:01:45

  • #248848

    I believe you have a maximum of 90 days to close the cambio.

  • #248935

    doctorlili
    Member

    Yeah we just hit a 3-month high at 2.038 … if only for a second.
    G.F. is it your experience that if you don’t ask your receiving bank to actually receive the money that they will not do it? I noticed once I received when I was physically there, and they made me sign forms to accept my own money.
    I think it’s kind-a cool that way, you get a chance to time your acceptance. When I wire to Europe it will always arrive the next day only, and much can happen in a day, then you get no chance to “hold it” for a few more days.

  • #248938

    jeb2886
    Member

    They’ll make their money not based off timing, but off how much you’re willing to fight for a reasonable rate….

  • #248955

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]G.F. is it your experience that if you don’t ask your receiving bank to actually receive the money that they will not do it? I noticed once I received when I was physically there, and they made me sign forms to accept my own money.[/QUOTE]
    Squid, not sure what you mean about “actually receive the money”. The wire specifies my agencia/conta, so they doactually receive it, whether or not I ‘ask’ them to.
    I think the longest I waited from sending a wire transfer to closing the cambio was about ten days. I wasn’t trying to time the rate, but sent the wire while in the US, left for Brasil a couple of days later, and when I arrived in Brasil stayed in Sao Paulo for several days before coming to Fpolis. Arrived home on a weekend, so when I finally went to my agencia that following Monday, my account mgr already knew funds had arrived for me.
    There is a form you can sign so when the wire transfer arrives it will automatically close the cambio, and you don’t have to go to your agenica to attend to the formalities. However, the amount you can send this way is rather low. Have never done this, so not certain of the amount.

  • #248966

    doctorlili
    Member

    That’s what I mean by “receive”, you actually had to do something and your account mgr knew but the funds were stuck until you said something. In my case too, I am sure I could just tell write her an email and if she is around sh would see to it that the money is taken in. But unless I make a move, I am not sure anything will happen. I would not want to wait 10 days and I don’t think I have to. Except in this case I might change my mind still and revert the wire or just wait for the rate to climb higher.
    Hello JKennedy, do you have any advice how I can negociate or “fight” for a more reasonable rate?

  • #248968

    jeb2886
    Member

    I have no idea, but apparently sunnyrain posted a message about being ripped off, and after a few hours they gave him a terrible rate.
    I use a place called cambioreal and move money more slowly. Todays rate was 2.02 vs 2.026 on yahoo finance. So they’re pretty good for my purposes and I normally just send a few thousand at a time…

  • #248975

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]That’s what I mean by “receive”, you actually had to do something and your account mgr knew but the funds were stuck until you said something. In my case too, I am sure I could just tell write her an email and if she is around sh would see to it that the money is taken in.[/QUOTE]
    Squid, they weren’t stuck until I said something, they were ‘parked’ until I could provesomething, such as, the source. I’ve mentioned this previously, but whenever I’d do a transfer it was always labeled ‘patrimonio’ by my bank. For documentation about the source, I merely printed two copies of my statement on-line of the bank the funds were sent from. One statement printed prior to the transfer, another statement printed right after the transfer had been set in motion, reflecting the funds debited from that account.
    Then I’d personally go to my agencia, request them to close the exchange, provide them with those statements, which they would then fax to ‘command central’ in Sao Paulo. Within 30-120 minutes, my agencia would receive word the exchange was done, and print me a statement showing the reais deposited in my account.
    Yet I also mentioned this more recently…. When the Cyprus banking fiasco erupted, I anticipated this mightcreate a contagion that could/would have a significant effect on the forex. I happened to stop in my agencia that same week, and asked what, if anything, had changed regarding closing a foreign exchange for a large some of money (a friend had told me things were getting more strict). My principal account is with HSBC, and they werethe most lax of the major banks, but even they have now tightened up.
    I was informed that it is now necessary to present your latest DIRPF, which shouldshow the foreign account declared as a ‘bens’, as well as the balance in that account as of 31/12 for the year of your DIRPF. If that account has not been declared, and/or the value declared is significantly lower than the amount of the wire transfer, one might have problems.
    I have declared my non-Brasilian accounts, so I’m not concerned. But if someone hasn’t, and they try to close the exchange for a significant sum, I’d be curious to hear what, if anything, they were required to present as documentation, in order for the cambio to close on the transfer.
    Smaller sums (under 10k reais?) might not have such scrutiny.
    EDIT: I’d really be surprised if your acct mgr will close the cambio on your transfer simply by being instructed to do so via an email (or phone call). But hey, this is Brasil, and when the moon is in the right phase, and it’s the right day of the week, WHO KNOWS?! A sacrificed black chicken never hurts your odds…. LOL
    [QUOTE=Squiddie]…do you have any advice how I can negociate or “fight” for a more reasonable rate?[/QUOTE]
    If you have a hefty balance, and/or other investments with your bank, you can usually get them to bump the rate about 2 cents in your favor, but probably no more. So say with an ‘official’ rate of 2.00, the bank will give you 1.96, but maybe possible to negotiate for 1.97 or 1.98
    I hear Itau now shaves 7 cents off any transfer (2.00 rate gives you a 1.93 exchange rate!)
    Gringo.Floripa2013-05-16 20:59:50

  • #249627

    Perhaps to be of interest: Bernanke Has Injected Foreign Banks With Over $1 Trillion In Cash
    (click the charts for a better view)

  • #249643

    Eliana FB
    Member

    Guys without going through the whole thread can someone say why the real to pound has dropped from 3.35 R$ to the pound to 3.10 R$.
    I think it is directly related to euro crisis but no expert, and do you think it is possible to go back to 3.35 or higher still?
    I know its US-centric discussion above mainly dollar references but any clarity welcomed.

  • #249649

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Why? Forthe same reason the Real has dropped against the Dollar. Seek not clarity inexchange rate logic – it’s a market or casino rife with speculators, manipulatorsand debt managers.

  • #249653

    lynchem
    Member

    If we get up to 3.0 I hope the real-estate comments will disappear!

  • #249694

    doctorlili
    Member

    Hey GF, I just found out my money had long arrived. Aaaahrrgh. On the 16th already. At 1.9995 when the market rate was 2.0224. The difference ain’t too bad, just I hoped it would take lonher so I could profit from the upswing.
    Anyway, I had nothing to prove, nothing to show for them to receive.

  • #249704

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Squiddie] Hey GF, I just found out my money had long arrived. Aaaahrrgh. On the 16th already. At 1.9995 when the market rate was 2.0224. The difference ain’t too bad, just I hoped it would take lonher so I could profit from the upswing.
    Anyway, I had nothing to prove, nothing to show for them to receive.[/QUOTE]
    How do you send money to Brazil? You are not a resident correct? You have a bank account?No BACEN request?

  • #249706

    doctorlili
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]
    How do you send money to Brazil? You are not a resident correct? You have a bank account?No BACEN request?[/QUOTE]
    I sent the majority by wire. And last time I was there I shuffled a sizable but relatively minor amount from Schwab ATM card to ATM deposito em dinheiro.
    That is a very good question as this is my first year. I plead ignorance so far. Indeed, I am not a permanent resident. I have a bank account thanks to an interested realtor friend talking with his accountant friend to talk with his BdB branch manager friend, and my passport number having been put into the mandatory RG/RNE data entry field on my account.
    I know nothing about BACEN nor RF filing requirements. Beyond pleading ignorance, I plead having had no income in Brazil that would even come close to my expenses. (And I don’t count capital investments or even amortization of improvements into the offsetting costs here.)
    I know the US tax code for aliens non-residents and residents very well. The Brazilian tax code is a mystery still, due to my ignorance.
    I wonder:
    ? What are the Brazilian criteria to count as resident for tax purposes?
    Applying U.S. criteria I would not meet residency (for tax purposes) tests in Brazil. I am not a citizen or permanent resident and I do not stay in the country for more than even 90 days per year.
    ? What are the reporting requirements for non-residents?
    I assume BACEN and stuff like that is not required.
    ? What is the cut-off for requiring filing income tax?
    My (ex-)namorada never filed or even thought or talked about filing — despite having had a fairly decent income from me for 2 years. All based on MoneyGram transactions for which the disbursing bank (always the same) collected her CPF every time.Squiddie2013-05-26 12:16:07

  • #249707

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Squiddie] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]
    How do you send money to Brazil? You are not a resident correct? You have a bank account?No BACEN request?[/QUOTE]
    That is a very good question as this is my first year. I plead ignorance so far. Indeed, I am not a permanent resident. I have a bank account thanks to an interested realtor friend talking with his accountant friend to talk with his BdB branch manager friend, and my passport number having been put into the mandatory RG/RNE data entry field on my account.
    I know nothing about BACEN nor RF filing requirements. Beyond pleading ignorance, I plead having had no income in Brazil that would even come close to my expenses. (And I don’t count capital investments or even amortization of improvements into the offsetting costs here.)
    I know the US tax code for aliens non-residents and residents very well. The Brazilian tax code is a mystery still, due to my ignorance.
    I wonder:
    ? What are the Brazilian criteria to count as resident for tax purposes?
    Applying U.S. criteria I would not meet residency (for tax purposes) tests in Brazil. I am not a citizen or permanent resident and I do not stay in the country for more than even 90 days per year.
    ? What are the reporting requirements for non-residents?
    I assume BACEN and stuff like that is not required.
    ? What is the cut-off for requiring filing income tax?
    My (ex-)namorada never filed or even thought or talked about filing — despite having had a fairly decent income from me for 2 years. All based on MoneyGram transactions for which the disbursing bank (always the same) collected her CPF every time.[/QUOTE]
    You lucky Squiddie! As a non resident you have nothing to file…so far.
    No reporting for non residents.

  • #249708

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] You lucky Squiddie! As a non resident you have nothing to file…so far.
    No reporting for non residents.[/QUOTE]
    What do you mean by ‘No reporting’? There is a long list of types of income that non-residents must pay taxes on. An Example: Rents collected. These are taxed at a straight 15%, I believe, so they probably can be handled by DARFs with no need for a DIRPF. The list goes on … work, profits on investments, capital gains, etc.

  • #249715

    doctorlili
    Member

    Yes, I am sure I need to file income tax on rent when I get to this point and if the emerging tax treaty will not hand these taxes to the US of A.
    But I do consider myself lucky not to have residency. And as I said elsewhere, I am planning to arrange my future so that I will not have residency anywhere and will review the impact of my German citizenship whether I might not change it to some other EU country.
    PS: on the other hand, if I intend to actually hang out in Brazil much of the time, meaning, spend my money there, I might just as well become a resident there. Because the base flat income tax is lowest in Brazil. I’d love to pay 27% in the US and I am glad to pay in the US and not in Germany. Brazil is only high tax country because of taxes slapped onto consumption. And the only way to avoid those taxes is to not hang out or otherwise consume in Brazil.Squiddie2013-05-26 14:27:02

  • #249730

    [QUOTE=Squiddie] Hey GF, I just found out my money had long arrived. Aaaahrrgh. On the 16th already. At 1.9995 when the market rate was 2.0224. The difference ain’t too bad, just I hoped it would take lonher so I could profit from the upswing.
    Anyway, I had nothing to prove, nothing to show for them to receive.[/QUOTE]
    Parabens Squid! I think.
    Yeah, you could have squeezed out a bit more on the upswing, but that swing could have gone the other way. This ya never know, never can time it, so just be glad it’s better than that miserable 1.5ish territory we were in for quite sometime.
    Forgive me for being personal, but how much was the transfer for (as in <50K USD, <10K USD)? I don’t know the specific amount, and I believe it might vary by bank, but for ‘lower’ transfer amounts, no documentation is needed. For example, I understand that people who have monthly transfers set up of pensions, social security payments, etc, don’t need to go to their agencia each and every month to close the cambio.
    And parabens as well on the jeitinho that occurred to get that account open for you! In Brasil, YMMV is definitely a variable to any equation. That will be quite handy for all your automatic debit bills, such as your electric bill.
    Taxes are entirely another issue….

  • #249746

    doctorlili
    Member

    Thanks G.F. The transfer this time was <50k. Purpose being to pay for the friggin’ repair of the pool as well as for the possibility of acquiring some of my neighbors lots … both of which topics have their own thread.
    BTW, I had this account for almost a year now and yes it is very handy to debit the bills, and hopefully at some point to receive some rent.

  • #250719

    Another frikkin swap by BACEN, to keep the USD from rising further! Angry
    I wish the Banco Central boys would hurry up and make their final payments on those condos in Miami!!!

    Banco Central faz leilão, e dólar volta a operar em queda

  • #250722

    jeb2886
    Member

    A fast moving currency is really quite dangerous to a country’s exports… But it is headed in the ‘right’ direction for me…

  • #250729

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Another frikkin swap by BACEN, to keep the USD from rising further! Angry
    I wish the Banco Central boys would hurry up and make their final payments on those condos in Miami!!!

    Banco Central faz leilão, e dólar volta a operar em queda

    [/QUOTE]

    Brasilia policy schizophrenia at its worst! The Dilma-Tombini-Mantega show is spouting off in separate directions -again. The predictable result: lower growth, and higher inflation.
    And greater volatility. Actually, am surprised that the dollar has held up the way it has today despite the removal of the IOF foreign fixed income tax. Looks like the main effect there is on the long end of the interest rate curve (will comment shortly on NTN-F thread).
  • #251362

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]After all, there are only so many currency swaps Brazil can buy. Although the central bank has some of the biggest foreign exchange reserves in the world – $374.4bn by the end of May – if it keeps going at this rate it will have already run out of cash by next February.[/quote]
    Brazil real: be careful what you wish for, Mr Mantega

  • #251398

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=oil&gas][quote]After all, there are only so many currency swaps Brazil can buy. Although the central bank has some of the biggest foreign exchange reserves in the world – $374.4bn by the end of May – if it keeps going at this rate it will have already run out of cash by next February.[/quote]
    Brazil real: be careful what you wish for, Mr Mantega[/QUOTE]

    The message in the underlying link you provide to that post is right on target.
    So by reading The Economist now, will Dilma finally have the wherewithal to sack this swell guy? (see GF’s link at the NTN-B thread).
    Glad you quoted the blurb above because it apparently no longer exists – at least on the FT site! I was looking for it when i clicked on the link. Instead there is the following message:
    “This post has been corrected to show that Brazil has been selling swaps rather than spending dollars (see reader comments below).”
    Maybe so, and perhaps the writer is in some kind of hot water, but as per one of the reader comments, those swaps haven’t had much of an effect lately, and if the country starts selling those reserves in the spot market to support the real (note: it has not yet), then the original point holds and we’re in a whole new barrel of wax.

    miguel2013-06-11 17:36:03

  • #251806

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]The real, the worst-performing emerging-market currency in the past three months, probably will weaken to about 2.40 from 2.15 per U.S. dollar, bolstering Brazil’s competitiveness[/quote]
    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-16/vale-sees-china-slowdown-blunted-by-brazil-currency-depreciation
    [quote] Mr. Siaca warned that the real could lose its “reference point” and decline to BRL2.20 per dollar if the central bank fails to stem volatility.
    [/quote]
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323566804578551663935521862.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
    oil&gas2013-06-18 03:03:33

  • #251818

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]
    [quote] Mr. Siaca warned that the real could lose its “reference point” and decline to BRL2.20 per dollar if the central bank fails to stem volatility.
    [/quote]
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323566804578551663935521862.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
    [/QUOTE]
    Thanks for those links O&G. Here’s an alternative link for those who are met with ‘subscribers only’ at the WSJ site.

    http://www.menafn.com/3189992b-e2c9-49c8-9a32-b0cdee3be7e9/DJ-Brazils-Real-Weakens-Further-Breaks-BRL216-Per-Dollar-Mark?src=main
    “Traders were expected to test the central bank’s defense of BRL2.15, with the currency losing ground against the greenback amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will give global markets a signal that it will start to taper its asset-buying program, known as quantitative easing, in the near future. The Fed will release its policy statement Wednesday, followed by comments from Chairman Ben Bernanke.”
    Let’s see what tomorrow brings…. Wink

  • #251825

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] “Let’s see what tomorrow brings….¬†¬† Wink[/QUOTE]
    First today.
    At this moment:
    Horário 09:19
    Compra 2,1831
    Venda 2,1838
    http://economia.uol.com.br/cotacoes/cambio/

  • #251831

    [QUOTE=oil&gas]
    At this moment:Horário 09:19
    Compra 2,1831
    Venda 2,1838[/QUOTE]
    And if Bernanke delivers unwanted news tomorrow, perhaps 2.20 by the end of the week…?
    I’m curious as to what the personal ‘tipping point’ is for those who regularly follow this thread, and who would like to make a significant transfer should their mark be reached. I’m holding out for 2.50, but if we hit 2.25 then will probably at least do a partial transfer. Others?

  • #251862

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]No primeiro, foram vendidos 60 mil contratos, movimentando US$ 2,995 bilhões; no segundo, foram vendidos pouco mais de 30 mil, a US$ 1,504 bilhão.
    Na véspera, o BC já tinha atuado no mercado com um leilão de venda de dólares, que movimentou US$ 1,957 bilhão. A cotação tinha atingido o nível de R$ 2,17.[/quote]
    Today the CB sold US$ 4,5 billion and yesterday 3,2 billion in contracts.
    No significant results.
    B.B will speak tomorrow.
    http://economia.uol.com.br/cotacoes/noticias/redacao/2013/06/18/dolar-encosta-em-r-219-e-bc-vende-moeda-para-conter-alta.htm………… /

  • #251868

    jeb2886
    Member

    Hmm as a good friend used to say to me with stocks. Did anything change? If not, then it’s still not a good deal.
    I would say that’s pretty relevant to the Real. It’s been heading in one direction for almost a year now. Is there anything that has changed, that would say it’s going to move in the other direction? Not really…
    So I would say if you don’t need the money now… give it some time.
    As a side note, and I haven’t done much investigation here… I read that the GDP growth we’ve seen in the past decade has mostly come from new jobs and more people working. While productivity increases were only 1.3%. If that is true…. that is seriously worrying.
    The US has been doing 2.3% a year for 70 years. It’s basically the maximum speed a human is estimated to be able to increase. The US is basically the top of the chain when it comes to productivity. Everyone else plays catchup…
    That being said, other countries do play catchup. India and China are running closer to 7%. They “steal” the ideas from the US, implement them poorly and get big boosts. As they get closer to the US productivity rate, that number will come down to 2.3%.
    Why is Brazil at 1.3%? Why are they below the normal rate? Even if they copied NO ONE they should be doing 2.3%, with copying, they should be able to do 7-10%.
    This is going to add up. That 1% difference over 30 years is going to mean like 50% slower output than their nearest competitor! Imaging producing food, and every 30 years, you produce 50% less than your competitor. That is a serious problem for Brazil, they’re not getting better at what they’re doing, while the rest of the world flies past them.
    If it is 1.3% productivity increase, that is a massive red flag for the currency of Brazil. The only way to compete will be to depreciate the Real by the difference every year. Yet we’ve been seeing for the most part, the opposite. Something is going to have to give eventually. 6% inflation should depreciate the currency by 6% every year, 1% productiviy should do another 1% every year.

  • #251945

    celso
    Member

    Dollar jumping 4 centavos today, now at 2.21! Thanks Bernanke!
    Petrobras at 14.75….getting cheap…

  • #251967

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Dollar jumping 4 centavos today, now at 2.21! Thanks Bernanke![/QUOTE]
    I think you should also thank the protestors. The ‘electronic herd’ is a strange breed, and reacts to stuff like this. Perhaps a contagion is blowing in the wind…?

  • #252206

    tech-spec
    Member

    [quote]
    Brazil bitched an moaned about having a currency that was too strong. Finance minister Guido Mantega declared a “fresh currency war” in March of 2012 after having already used the term in 2010.
    “When the real appreciates, it reduces our competitiveness. Exports are more expensive, imports are cheaper and it creates unfair competition for businesses in Brazil,” said Mantega
    The Keynesian and Monetarist fools in Brazil got what they asked, a weakening currency.Now they don’t like the end results.
    ………………………………..
    Brazil has no idea how to stem the tide [/quote]
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.br/2013/06/violence-erupts-in-brazil-fatalities.html

  • #252303

    Article below plagiarized from the WSJ. Appropriate credit given.
    If a nationwide general strike occurs on July 1st, we may be looking at 2.50 (BRL:USD) later that same week….
    Demonstrators Have Been Promised Better Services, But Investors May Be Scared Off by Bigger Deficits, Higher Inflation
    By PAULO TREVISANI in Brasilia and PAUL KIERNAN in Rio de Janeiro
    President Dilma Rousseff has promised a new national effort in Brazil to improve transportation and health services–key demands of the masses of protesters that have taken to the streets this month. She has summoned state governors to a meeting on Monday. The problem is that new spending is the very opposite of the medicine many economists say is essential to rein in rising inflation and deficits in the country.
    The protest movement got under way some two weeks ago over increases in bus fares in São Paulo and ballooned into a broad repudiation of government services and corruption in general. Now, it has Brazil’s economic policy makers in a bind. Before the protests started, most talk around Brasilia centered on how to trim spending as the currency plunged to its lowest since 2009. “The problem that they have is they need to calm down two very nervous stakeholders, the market and the population, and they are demanding different things,” said Pedro Barbosa, a partner at Rio de Janeiro-based hedge fund STK Capital.
    Ms. Rousseff called for calm in a speech late Friday, a day after protesters in Brasilia forced their way into the Foreign Ministry and vandalized its lobby. Ms. Rousseff, a former Marxist guerrilla and Brazil’s first female president, sought to empathize with the protesters demands. She called for a national pact with governors to improve services. She vowed to spend all of Brazil’s expected revenue from massive new finds of offshore oil on education. “If we take advantage of this new political force, we can do many things Brazil hasn’t yet been able to do,” she said. But the protests didn’t end after Ms. Rousseff’s speech. Protesters in São Paulo blocked the city’s international airport, forcing passengers to get out of their cars and walk along the highway with their luggage to make their flights.
    Rio de Janeiro authorities reported looting. On Saturday, more than 60,000 marchers in the southern city of Belo Horizonte took to the streets, clashing with police near the site of an international soccer match under way as part of Brazil’s dry-run to host the World Cup next year. More than a dozen people were injured. In other parts of the country, protesters returned in smaller numbers and with less intensity, giving authorities hope. In São Paulo, for example, a crowd of 30,000 marched against corruption, including many families with children. Some who returned to the streets said they had little confidence Ms. Rousseff could deliver promises made in the speech.
    “Saying that you’re are going to improve education, health and transportation is easy, but what it really takes is ending all this corruption that just winds up stealing the investments anyway,” said Celso Capela, a street vendor in the northeastern state of Salvador. But even if Ms. Rousseff is able to get her vision of improved government services on track, the conventional wisdom is the only way to pay for it will be with more debt. “There is no space to cut costs,” said federal representative José Guimarães, who leads Ms. Rousseff’s left-wing Workers Party’s party in the lower house of Congress.
    In an interview, Mr. Guimaraes said he would push for a vote on a bill to approve one of Ms. Rousseff’s centerpiece ideas, earmarking oil royalties from big new oil finds for education. The bill has faced opposition from lawmakers who want the money transferred to the states, but Brazil’s charged political climate could make a difference. Ms. Rousseff also wants to import around 6,000 doctors from Cuba and recession-torn Europe to beef up public-health services.
    The financial squeeze isn’t just a problem at the federal level. Already the cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro have promised to rescind the bus-fare increases that touched off the protests initially. Rio de Janeiro Mayor Eduardo Paes said last week the move would cost the city around $100 million per year, and mean less spending in other areas. “It will be a sacrifice,” Mr. Paes said. Paulo Petrassi, a fund manager at Leme Investimentos in Florianopolis, Brazil, said before the protests began, investors were mainly concerned with rising inflation and widening budget deficits. Investors had been expecting a round of budget cuts to meet spending limits outlined in Brazilian laws designed to maintain economic stability. Finance Minister Guido Mantega said last week that the government is prepared to “make additional adjustments on the spending side, as needed.” But a lot has changed in Brazil since then.
    Market declines show investors believe Ms. Rousseff’s priority will ultimately be to increase spending to meet popular demands‚Äînot belt-tightening. The stock market hit its lowest levels since the 2009 global recession this past week. Surging bond yields reflected the view of investors that Brazil’s central bank will need to raise interest rates more than previously expected to combat rising inflation. But while the demands of the protesters and investors appear contradictory, Mr. Barbosa, the hedge fund investors, said they both share one important cause. “The common ground that both are claiming is more efficiency, less corruption, more transparency,” he said. “My hope is that the government takes the right message and starts addressing these things.”
    Rogerio Jelmayer in Salvador contributed to this article.

  • #252312

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Article below plagiarized from the WSJ. Appropriate credit given.
    If a nationwide general strike occurs on July 1st, we may be looking at 2.50 (BRL:USD) walk along the highway with their luggage to make their flights.
    Rogerio Jelmayer in Salvador contributed to this article.
    [/QUOTE]
    The dollar is now at 2.40 sell side parallel market and 2.40 turismo…

  • #252314

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]
    The dollar is now at 2.40 sell side parallel market and 2.40 turismo.[/QUOTE]
    Unfortunately, the gray market is of little consequence if one wants to cash in a large pile of chips at the state-sanctioned casino.
    Yet maybe that 02 July prediction should be revised to 3.0….

  • #252338

    tech-spec
    Member

  • #252358

    jeb2886
    Member

    That’s from basically the economic crash to today. I’m pretty sure much of the bond market is reacting to the fed saying they will be pulling out, maybe, partially, fully, doubling down. Bonds are decently volitile.
    The numbers are pretty low regardless, 6% to 4%? With US inflation at roughly 3%, that means Brazil is only paying a 1%-3% premium for a 30y fixed bond? wow.
    Well, people are paying a 1-3%, I don’t know what the note values are on those bonds.
    jkennedy2013-06-25 13:33:51

  • #252828

    Slightly off-topic, but check THIS out! WTF?!? ConfusedLOL

    Give Us Your Real Dollars for Our Fake Dollars: Argentina Credit

  • #252865
  • #252866

    update protesting , link describes current exchange rate

  • #252874

    celso
    Member

    Dollar 2.28 buy and 2.38 sell in SP today!
    Negative growth numbers and high inflation knocking down the Real.

  • #252876

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Thereare many contributing factors at work here, chief among which is the Bernanke QEsyndrome and its consequential lemming investor stampede. All of the BRICS havesuffered the effects of coitus interruptus as the possibility of the existingprinting of 85 billion dollars per month may, at some future time, be stopped.These cheap and irresponsible dollars are running home to Uncle Sam and thesafety of negative returns. We live in a world of bullsh*t currency values andwhere central bankers have usurped political power; not that politicians aremuch better but we can, at least, vote them out of office.

  • #252885

    jeb2886
    Member

    The Real has been going in one direction for the last year. This isn’t QE, this is all Brazils doing.
    As GBF said, negative growth numbers and high inflation.

  • #252911

    Deleted User
    Moderator
  • #252916

    So later this week (like tomorrow?), more economic ‘indicators’ are to be released in the US. This primarily goes out to ‘jkennedy’, but Esprit, anyone else, feel free to comment….
    (my real question is, when will we hit 3.0?) Wink
    Everyone has a different opinion on how best to take the measure of the markets and the economy at large.
    Hairs standing up on end, a knee that aches with the weather, tea leaves, earnings estimates, it seems like all of these are significant in some way at one time or another.
    Here are the numbers we perhaps should be looking at every day – before breakfast, after coffee – if we want to get an idea of the big picture.
    U6 or, the “real” unemployment rate: The U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps all sorts of unemployment data. Although all the data is freely available to those who look, only one figure is hyped. When “unemployment” is discussed in the media or by the White House, the number usually refers to U3. U3 is a rather vanilla figure, and it refers to people who have been unemployed for 15 weeks or more, and still collecting unemployment benefits.

U6, however, is the gut-puncher. It accounts for just about everything: people who have long since lost their benefits, who work only occasionally if at all, and those who are labeled “disaffected workers.” It’s the U6 number where you’ll find the real picture. It’s currently stands at a very sobering 13.9%. Contrast this with the “official” U3 rate of 7.5%
    The American Institute for Economic Research “Everyday Price Index”: Does it ever seem weird to you that you keep hearing about how low inflation is? There’s a good reason for that. It’s not true. The current “official” inflation rate was reported as 1.06% in April. Dry that figure out, and you can have the greenest lawn in the neighborhood.

The Everyday Price Index tracks higher than that. A lot higher. The reason. EPI is not seasonally adjusted. After all,are you? This means it tracks much more closely with the way prices really feel to consumers, how big of a hit your wallet is really taking. The EPI usually runs between 1 % to 3% higher than the Consumer Price Index, although sometimes they do run in tandem in certain categories.
    The Baltic Dry Index: The Baltic Dry gives a good at-a-glance idea of the health and volume of global growth. It directly measures the demand for shipping capacity against the supply. Despite its moniker, it’s not from the Baltics, rather from the Baltic Exchange in London. It measures the price of moving most major raw materials like coal, iron ore, and grain by sea.

It factors in 23 shipping routes on a time-charter basis. These 23 routes are said to be representative of the entire dry shipping market. The Baltic Dry index hit a stupendous 11,793 points in 2008, and then crashed – along with just about everything else – to 663 points later the same year. It has since recovered somewhat, and sits at 806. This obscure little index is your ticket to understanding the global growth picture in three or four digits.
    The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index: Called the Fear Index, it gives you a picture of volatility on the S&P 500 options market. It’s a measure of the expected volatility over the next 30 days, annualized. The lower the VIX number, the lower the expected volatility on the S&P 500.

There is a famous VIX derivative, an exchange traded note traded (VXX). VXX is the hedge of smart cookies the world over. The more volatility on the markets, or the more likely the S&P is to take a dive, the more valuable VXX will be. The VIX is a great gauge of market sentiment and predictability.
    Corn Futures (CBOT): Corn futures are traded on the hallowed old Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Simply put, corn is the world’s most important grain. These humble kernels feed millions, are used in a myriad of industrial applications, and form the basis for huge markets worldwide. The importance of tracking corn futures prices cannot be overstated.
    The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX): This tracks the performance of the dollar relative to a basket of major currencies. The currencies and their “weights,” or statistical importance to the index, are as follows: 

Euro: 56.7%
Japanese yen: 13.6%
Pound sterling: 11.9%
Canadian dollar: 9.1%
Swedish krona: 4.2%
Swiss franc: 3.6%

The USDX goes up when the dollar is stronger relative to the other currencies, and down on dollar weakness. It’s a good way to get your head around the import/export picture, and obviously foreign exchange.
    10-year U.S. Treasury yields: The bond yield curve can be insanely complicated to figure out. But don’t worry. If you only focus on the importance of 10-year Treasury note yields, you’ll know what you need to know. The 10-year yield gives you insight into the prevailing market mood, the risk picture and the health of the economy at large.
    If the economy heats up the 10-year yield should rise with the growth. Conversely If the economy slows down, the yield would likely fall. A caveat: the Fed’s easy money policies have mucked up this indicator a bit, but the recent upward spike in the 10-year might be telling us the economy is (slightly) improving.

    Gringo.Floripa2013-07-02 19:50:03

  • #252917

    jeb2886
    Member

    Here is my take, all things equal, inflation in Brazil runs at what 6%? 7%? GDP at 2.7%, these numbers are fairly close to the US, but we’re looking at a 4% difference inflation. All things being equal, we should see around 4% loss in purchasing power year over year, without anything else taking place. Over the last decade we’ve seen the currency instead gain ground.
    Many say it’s over valued by as much as 40%, and over the last year we’ve seen it drop steadily. Basically ever since Brazil said “ok, the jigs up, we’re not expanding rapidly anymore.. and our GDP and productivity suck… ops our bad”. Nothing has changed.
    I say the currency slowly slips, year over year until it’s far more competitive on the open markets. It has no reason to gain more strength really. Brazilians might feel an inferiority complex after all these years of chest beating, but really, it’s the direction it’s likely to take. Over buying, credit with 100% interest rates, car loans with 100% interest rates.. they sap the country dry.
    As far as the US goes — all those numbers are moot. The economy recovered in 2009, the economy recovered, NOT the jobs. The economy recovered nicely. It’s been on a steady growth trajectory, growing at the same speed it’s been doing for 70 years. The key here is that people without jobs are still getting money and spending it. Instead of making say $10/hour, they might get $5/hour in benefits. Yeah it’s down, but the employment gap went from 0% unemployed to about 5% unemployed…. (I say 4% is 100% employed, people not working when it’s 4% choose not to). The amount they have “lost” in income is so minor in a 15T economy. High end jobs have been filled. The news, and stories of unemployed are out there, but in reality, I say the ones who have the skills were re-employed. The ones who haven’t gotten a job… I’m going to say they were over paid for awhile.. and now they can’t figure out how to get back there….
    Look at the bay area, it’s bee under 2% unemployment for those making over 100K for many years now.
    Brazil’s Real went the wrong way for 10 years, now it’s probably heading in the other direction for quite awhile. Nothing has changed in Brazil to say it will go in the other direction.
    The US is fine and dandy and has been for quite awhile. There are some unemployed, but the economy itself is fine. I don’t think the economy here will effect whatever happens in Brazil. I think people are looking for news on why the Real is slipping, when it’s really just Brazil has been trending downward for awhile now, and nothing has changed.
    3.0 exchange rate? Maybe late next year if Brazil does something stupid and accelerates the trend. I suspect it’s going to drop 5-10% a year for awhile though…. Nothing horrific, but just slowly moving itself back to where it should be, to be competitive.

  • #252918

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Closingtoday at 2.254 and you want a forecast for a further fall of 33%? Okay, I‚Äômgame. Em, August 2014 when Dilma‚Äôs under garments are clearly on display as sheadopts the Mussolini inverted position hanging in Estádio do Maracanã. I can alsopredict the colour of her garter, however a gentleman would never tell.

  • #252921

    lynchem
    Member

    time to buy some property back home!

  • #252953

    [QUOTE=Esprit]Em, August 2014 when Dilma‚Äôs under garments are clearly on display as sheadopts the Mussolini inverted position hanging in Estádio do Maracanã.[/QUOTE]
    By then, it will 5.0+ Wink

  • #252967

    aagrin
    Member

    Today 1.995 = 1

  • #252982

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=redneck.floripa] Today (sometime in 2012) 1.995 = 1 [/QUOTE]
    Wow! A poster with a time machine!

  • #252983

    jeb2886
    Member

    Actually GF, your input was “news” which will swing the currency up and down by a bit, but the overall trend in the US is recovery, with Brazil showing an overall trend downward right now. News might swing it quickly for a few days, but overall it’s the trend that is important.
    3.0 isn’t happening with US news, and probably not even most Brazilian news. What it requires is the long term trend to break or stop via gdp growth. It’s going to happen over a period of time, as things just slip away a bit here and there.
    The other major point is the Government won’t allow the currency to simply destroy the country. So they’ll play the game as well, putting brakes in here or there to slow things down or give time to cool off and absorb the new situation. Just like the housing market, the government slowed things down and gave people time to realize the world wasn’t over… Stopping people from doing knee jerk reactions will keep it from just tumbling. Just like it didn’t go from 4.0 to 1.57 over night, it dropped a bit each year over the last decade or so.
    jkennedy2013-07-03 12:29:28

  • #252984

    aagrin
    Member

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA]Wow! A poster with a time machine![/QUOTE]
    Hey Bonehead my time machine is http://www.xe.com

  • #252985

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    3.0 isn’t happening with US news, and probably not even most Brazilian news. [/QUOTE]
    That 3.0 comment was tongue-in-check (sort of). Yet I find it interesting that BACEN hasn’t spoiled this recent rise with another dollar swap. Maybe they ran out… or waiting for Ben to print some more. LOL
    Did you read that piece I posted day before yesterday (01July) about Argentina’s creative ‘dollar swap’? I’m still incredulous at the shenanigans Cristina Kirchner comes up with! Mulher louca!!!

  • #252986

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=redneck.floripa] [QUOTE=Paulistano USA]Wow! A poster with a time machine![/QUOTE]
    Hey Bonehead my time machine is http://www.xe.com [/QUOTE]
    Using abusive language is against house rules.

  • #252987

    jeb2886
    Member

    Well I wouldn’t be surprised by 3.0 in the coming year or two? Really, unless Brazil figures out how to reduce its red tape and *really* reduce it, productivity is going to be destroyed. In terms of competitiveness, in 30 years, Brazil will be significantly behind other countries in output.
    Don’t try and catch a falling, knife. Wait for the currency to hit a bottom and start recovering. Then buy into it. For the last year, we’ve headed in one direction. Wait until we’re heading in the other direction for several months then buy. Until then, just hang tight, and only bring in money you need to….

  • #252992

    jeb2886
    Member

    I’m realizing that investing out of country is too much work. I’ve had several out of US companies, and all have been flubs for one reason or another over the years. I still hold some PBR, which is down in the dumps, even though they have one of the largest oil fields, even though oil is holding at some very high price levels, the currency is down, the government is having issues, the government is promising money from those operations to others, they’re getting their hands into things, and then there are the major items that are hard to find: PBR has to sell gas as a specific price to brazilians. So high oil prices destroy their profits… wtf…
    I would stay out of Brazil, there are too many unknowns. Even if you’re living there, there are just too many issues to deal with and think about. Stick with western countries, where they are stable and trading within western markets and with western rules. Although I’m a bit more conservative.

  • #252993

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    Don’t try and catch a falling, knife. Wait for the currency to hit a bottom and start recovering. Then buy into it. For the last year, we’ve headed in one direction. Wait until we’re heading in the other direction for several months then buy. Until then, just hang tight, and only bring in money you need to…[/QUOTE]
    True, and that’s essentially what I do. Yet on the other hand, when a ‘crisis’ hits, of whatever cause (pre-Lula first election ‘socialism’ investor scare/2002, or post US financial meltdown/2008), the peak opportunity to score big (according to the charts) is a mere 60-90 days. Back to the Lula’s first term, the forex USD:BRL then jumped back up in 2004 to just above 3.0, but again, not for long.
    I can do ‘global transfers’ on-line with HSBC, but they eat me on the rate (9 cents less than PTAX rate), plus I have to pay IOF on each transaction. BACEN regulations also limit such transfers to one thousand USD a day. It’s actually better to do an ATM withdrawal, and then turn right around and deposit it. But with HSBC at least, withdrawals using an international card, even HSBC-US, is now limited to R$300 per withdrawal. This has been discussed in another thread.
    There’s some ‘contagion’ floating around in the air out there, somewhere…. Wink

  • #252994

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Inall of this it’s worth remembering the proven wisdom in the advice, When there’sblood on the streets

  • #252995

    jeb2886
    Member

    I agree, when it hits the fan, 30-90 days for the maximum results, however this is more of a trend. In 2008 when the crisis hit, it was 1.57 swinging to 1.65 sometimes… to 2.60 overnight, that’s a HUGE loss in value! Right now, we’re talking 2.00-2.10 with good support around there, to 2.20 or 2.25… Really, 2.10 to 2.20 is only 5%. This isn’t huge spike. If you woke up one morning and it was 2.65 or 2.85 then yes, jump in. But we’re just trending down, not falling down.
    Try setting up an account with cambioreal, you can transfer more down, however when there are huge jumps in value, I do see they lag by a few days… I’m sure if you wire down money when there is a huge swing, HSBC is going to say “ok… how about 2.35.. or you can wait until it comes back to 2.35 from 2.97…. your choice…” :)

  • #252997

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    Inall of this it’s worth remembering the proven wisdom in the advice, When there’sblood on the streets[/QUOTE]

    Does that include Egypt, or only Brasil? Shocked

  • #253000

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Well,as you probably know, but for the benefit of those who are not yet familiar,the blood may not have been meant literally. I understand that the quote isattributed to Baron Rothschild when it is alleged that he said, The best timeto buy is when there is blood on the streets. Adding, even if it is yourown. The blood is, of course, ametaphor for large losses and while that will always remain true, it was at onetime literally true when the pavements of Wall Street were splashed with theblood from hopeless suicide investors jumping from tall buildings to theirdeath during the great Wall Street crash. Panic selling causes prices to sinklower that true value. There are a few ripe 12% return opportunities to be hadtoday.

  • #253001

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]
    Well, as you probably know, but for the benefit of those who are not yet familiar, the blood may not have been meant literally. I understand that the quote is attributed to Baron Rothschild when it is alleged that he said, The best time to buy is when there is blood on the streets. Adding, even if it is your own.The blood is, of course, a metaphor for large losses and while that will always remain true, it was at one time literally true when the pavements of Wall Street were splashed with the blood from hopeless suicide investors jumping from tall buildings to their death during the great Wall Street crash. Panic selling causes prices to sink lower that true value. There are a few ripe 12% return opportunities to be had today.[/QUOTE]
    Beautifully put.
    *edit: to maintain the integrity of the QPPaulistano USA2013-07-03 21:39:00

  • #253002

    [QUOTE=Esprit]I understand that the quote isattributed to Baron Rothschild[/QUOTE]
    Ah yes, the illuminatedRothschilds…. where, oh where would the world be without their ‘intervention’, in not only economies, but politics? Probably with a lot less blood on the streets, for starters….
    A few more modern day quotes at link below, from those not quite as rich and powerful as the Baron and his family, but nonetheless, not amateurs either.
    http://www.outsiderclub.com/report/the-prophets-of-doom/825

  • #253150
    Potential ‘bad news’ on the horizon for this coming week…. (which could translate into ‘good news’ for those looking for a further increase in the USD:BRL forex).
    “The International Monetary Fund may this week trim its global growth forecast because of the situation in emerging countries (like Brasil), IMF chief Lagarde said.”
    “MARK YOUR CALENDAR: Bernake to give speech on July 10th”

    Gringo.Floripa2013-07-07 10:38:31

  • #253157

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Onehas to wonder, on occasion, what kind of world we live in. If it is at allpossible, within the confines of imagination, we appear to function in tworealities: the real world and the unreal.

    Inthe real world we have the flesh, blood and bones of the global society;growing things and making the things that put food on our tables, a roof overour heads and everything else that maintains humanity on our little blue planet.

    Withinthis construct we have the reality of currency and the markets that enable localand global trade; all of which is tangible, accessible and understandable.Understandable that is until we make a casino out of all of this with theexpectation that everybody can be a winner. Such flawed optimism clouds thejudgement of what might otherwise be expected of rational and learned people.

    Onthe one hand we have the examples of Bernanke creating and printing dollars outof thin air at the rate of eighty-five billion every month to aid and abet theextravagance of the US politicians borrowing of over a trillion dollars eachand every year; an irresponsible sum of money that exceeds the yearly GDP of agreat number of countries.

    Meanwhile the IMF pontificates and distributesdonated money as it sees fit while its chief Lagarde is under investigation forwrong doings. And it is this world, the workings of unreal world, which makesus jump through the hoops while ignoring the realities and real values ofindustrial and agricultural production.

    Prophetspredict profits while our currencies and markets swing in a wild and uncontrolledcircus where the ringmasters crack their whips to the cheers of the alternate winnersand the groans of the alternate losers. Somewhere in this participatoryaudience the politicians have big spanners that are occasionally thrown intothe workings in the fond hope that any short term gain might ensure theirre-election. In fact, today the only real thing in my world will be a finelunch, a succession of cold beers and what I hope with be decent conversation interruptedonly by laughter.

  • #253165

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]
    <font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;’>In
    the real world we have the flesh, blood and bones of the global society;
    growing things and making the things that put food on our tables, a roof over
    our heads and everything else that maintains humanity on our little blue planet.
    <o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;’>Within
    this construct we have the reality of currency and the markets that enable local
    and global trade; all of which is tangible, accessible and understandable.
    Understandable that is until we make a casino out of all of this with the
    expectation that everybody can be a winner. Such flawed optimism clouds the
    judgement of what might otherwise be expected of rational and learned people. <o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;’>On
    the one hand we have the examples of Bernanke creating and printing dollars out
    of thin air at the rate of eighty-five billion every month to aid and abet the
    extravagance of the US politicians borrowing of over a trillion dollars each
    and every year; an irresponsible sum of money that exceeds the yearly GDP of a
    great number of countries.<o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    <p style=”margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;” =”Msonormal”><span =”st”><span style=’line-height: 115%; font-family: “Verdana”,”sans-serif”; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: “Times New Roman”;’><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span>Meanwhile the IMF pontificates and distributes
    donated money as it sees fit while its chief Lagarde is under investigation for
    wrong doings. And it is this world, the workings of unreal world, which makes
    us jump through the hoops while ignoring the realities and real values of
    industrial and agricultural production. <o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    In fact, today the only real thing in my world will be a fine
    lunch, a succession of cold beers and what I hope with be decent conversation interrupted
    only by laughter. <span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><span style=”mso-spacerun: yes;”>¬†</span><o:p></o:p></span></span><font size=”3″ face=”Times New Roman”>
    [/QUOTE]
    As I enjoyed a cold Brama 600 ml for 3.50 reais which I bought for 2.22 at the airport two days ago, I thought ” this is better than 3.50 reais at 1.60 to the dollar. I also thought it was great to have a nice cold beer in peace with friends and family.

  • #253197

    jeb2886
    Member

    Esprit, you seem either disillusioned with what you perceived to be the real world, or you don’t understand how it all works.
    Money is a trade of services. People WITH money are people who are owed services by society. The whole concept of capitalism is that you will be owed other peoples services if you can figure out how to do work faster/better. If everyone did this, then everyone would be owed the same amount and no one would be any better off.
    There must be a huge part of the population who slogs away at life in the most basic of conditions. It doesn’t matter what the government does with this money. The average person simply can’t climb up the rungs of the ladder. It can’t physically happen, everyone can’t be rich like Bill Gates. If everyone founded a Microsoft style company, everyone would be in the same position. To be rich means you have more than others. If everyone had 1B the bank, they would be considered at poverty level, whoever had more would be rich.
    The games the government plays with money is to keep the whole system working. Nothing more, nothing less. They’ve already made it way up the ladder. This is about keep the rest of the country in balance.
    The illusion of being able to climb the ladder through hard work is what probably irks you. You’re disillusioned that 1 in 20,000 might be able to do this, while every child is taught they can do it, it’s theirs for the taking. The government is simply changing the rules all the time to keep things level and to keep the world working.
    If you want to move up the ladder, play by the rules the rich use, not the rules you are taught in school, by your parents pr by the media.

  • #253200

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]If you want to move up the ladder, play by the rules the rich use, not the rules you are taught in school, by your parents pr by the media.[/QUOTE]
    So I guess I better get busy opening that ‘trust’ or ‘foundation’ in the BVI! Wink

  • #253202

    jeb2886
    Member

    Do as they do, not as they say.
    Well you need to have enough money to utilize trusts and foundations, setting them up prematurely will just cost you money :) But when you get there, for sure!

  • #253207

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Esprit, you seem either disillusioned with what you perceived to be the real world, or you don’t understand how it all works.
    Money is a trade of services. People WITH money are people who are owed services by society. The whole concept of capitalism is that you will be owed other peoples services if you can figure out how to do work faster/better. If everyone did this, then everyone would be owed the same amount and no one would be any better off.
    There must be a huge part of the population who slogs away at life in the most basic of conditions. It doesn’t matter what the government does with this money. The average person simply can’t climb up the rungs of the ladder. It can’t physically happen, everyone can’t be rich like Bill Gates. If everyone founded a Microsoft style company, everyone would be in the same position. To be rich means you have more than others. If everyone had 1B the bank, they would be considered at poverty level, whoever had more would be rich.
    The games the government plays with money is to keep the whole system working. Nothing more, nothing less. They’ve already made it way up the ladder. This is about keep the rest of the country in balance.
    The illusion of being able to climb the ladder through hard work is what probably irks you. You’re disillusioned that 1 in 20,000 might be able to do this, while every child is taught they can do it, it’s theirs for the taking. The government is simply changing the rules all the time to keep things level and to keep the world working.
    If you want to move up the ladder, play by the rules the rich use, not the rules you are taught in school, by your parents pr by the media.
    [/QUOTE]

    Atthe outset I must say, jkennedy, that you are an amusing if not a presumptuousold fart. I say this because you appear to lecture me as if I were a twelveyear-old who still believes in Santa Claus.

    Iknow what irks you beyond your blood pressure relief valve and that is theinescapable embarrassment that your all-time heroes, those dysfunctional politiciansrepresenting dear old Uncle Sam, are obliging him to create, magic up fromnothing of value, the printing of eighty-five billion dollars each and everymonth in order to prop up a system that is inexorably crashing in slow motion;crashing into a quagmire of hitherto unimaginable debt levels. Of course, youdismiss such debt as inconsequential and a mere bagatelle; tens of trillionshere and tens of trillions there. All of which money is, as you describe, atrade of services. Idiocy!

    Meanwhileyou babble your inanities continually by saying that it doesn’t matter what thegovernment does with this money because they’ve made it way up the ladder; whateverthat means. Perhaps it means that those miscreant politicians will be so far upthe ladder that Joe dopey public cannot reach them to lynch the sons ofbitches.

    Bernankeis printing all of this money and offering it at an interest rate unheard ofduring the past three-hundred years. A tsunami of cash that is bolstering themarkets to unreal values while corrupting global currencies. Perhaps it’s theFederal bank’s ambition to prove your theory right by offering everyone abillion dollars just to keep them on the poverty level? Jesus!

    Further,I would disabuse you of the notion that I am irked about ladders and climbingas I have long reached independence from such mundane tasks. The problem thattasks me today, apart, that is, from reading drivel, is the vain attempt toprotect wealth from the onslaught by the incompetent buffoonery of desperate bankersand dysfunctional politicians.

  • #253208

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Asan addendum to my last post I should add that the British Chancellor of theExchequer has, this week, pledged to implement laws that will control banker’sbonuses and jail those guilty of reckless practices. About time, Sir!

  • #253244

    jeb2886
    Member

    You’re about as close to 100% incorrect on your assessment of me as possible. I think the government has done exactly what was required to protect the general public from an even more massive wealth transfer from the poor to the rich over this last recession.
    I was able to snag only half a dozen homes in the bay area during this recession. Had the government not taken action, I’m pretty sure I would have been in a position to grab 20-30 properties. I was already paying 20% under market value for my properties, and properties were going for around 25 cents on the dollar around here. Had the government not stepped in, I would have been picking them up for 5-10 cents and I would have gone in way more aggressively than I ended up going in.
    No, the government prevented me from grabbing 30 properties this time around. I’m not unhappy, I made out like a bandit. During the next cycle, I should be able to get that up to 30-50 properties, especially with all the contacts I now I have in the industry. I’m currently making roughly 50% of rent on these properties. About 35% is used for the mortgage, and 15% for taxes, and maintenance. This is in one of the most expensive housing markets in the country, and I’m making 50%. Most investors aim to lose for the first few years and make it up in appreciation. My properties have already doubled in value, and if I put them up for sale, I would have 20-50 offers, half in cash, with the poor not standing a chance. They won’t be able to buy for another 3-5 years. Most investors have backed off. Home owners with cash are buying because it’s still a good deal for them. The 20% will come in next year, and then 10% the year after and then 5% and then FHA will start to get some, but the prices will be astronomical by that time, and we’ll be nearing the next cycle, when another great wealth transfer will take place.
    The government has protected many of the wealthy from losing wealth, but has also blocked others from taking complete advantage of the wealth transfer. Basically, their actions maintained the status quo for most people. Very few gained any serious ground, very few lost ground. The middle class who thought they were doing well with their investments in property and homes were wiped out and reset back to their previous wealth levels.
    The government slowed down how much wealth I could accumulate but protected the majority, they did well. They maintained the status quo… You’re upset by this, I can see it in everything you write. I’m not. I believe they did exactly what they were supposed to do, and I made out very nicely.
    People like you spewing your crap, hurt the public. The media, and people like you who constantly told the public that the world was ending, that they were doomed caused people to hunker down, and they did nothing, while investors like myself were able to go out there and grab these properties for very little. You did far more damage than the government did to the public, but you just don’t realize it yet.

  • #253253

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]You’re about as close to 100% incorrect on your assessment of me as possible. I think the government has done exactly what was required to protect the general public from an even more massive wealth transfer from the poor to the rich over this last recession.
    I was able to snag only half a dozen homes in the bay area during this recession. Had the government not taken action, I’m pretty sure I would have been in a position to grab 20-30 properties. I was already paying 20% under market value for my properties, and properties were going for around 25 cents on the dollar around here. Had the government not stepped in, I would have been picking them up for 5-10 cents and I would have gone in way more aggressively than I ended up going in.
    No, the government prevented me from grabbing 30 properties this time around. I’m not unhappy, I made out like a bandit. During the next cycle, I should be able to get that up to 30-50 properties, especially with all the contacts I now I have in the industry. I’m currently making roughly 50% of rent on these properties. About 35% is used for the mortgage, and 15% for taxes, and maintenance. This is in one of the most expensive housing markets in the country, and I’m making 50%. Most investors aim to lose for the first few years and make it up in appreciation. My properties have already doubled in value, and if I put them up for sale, I would have 20-50 offers, half in cash, with the poor not standing a chance. They won’t be able to buy for another 3-5 years. Most investors have backed off. Home owners with cash are buying because it’s still a good deal for them. The 20% will come in next year, and then 10% the year after and then 5% and then FHA will start to get some, but the prices will be astronomical by that time, and we’ll be nearing the next cycle, when another great wealth transfer will take place.
    The government has protected many of the wealthy from losing wealth, but has also blocked others from taking complete advantage of the wealth transfer. Basically, their actions maintained the status quo for most people. Very few gained any serious ground, very few lost ground. The middle class who thought they were doing well with their investments in property and homes were wiped out and reset back to their previous wealth levels.
    The government slowed down how much wealth I could accumulate but protected the majority, they did well. They maintained the status quo… You’re upset by this, I can see it in everything you write. I’m not. I believe they did exactly what they were supposed to do, and I made out very nicely.
    People like you spewing your crap, hurt the public. The media, and people like you who constantly told the public that the world was ending, that they were doomed caused people to hunker down, and they did nothing, while investors like myself were able to go out there and grab these properties for very little. You did far more damage than the government did to the public, but you just don’t realize it yet.
    [/QUOTE]

    If anything,my assessment of you was a tad optimistic. You now come across as a mix betweenthe villainous property character Henry F. Potter in the movie, “It’s aWonderful Life” and Dickens’ infamous penny pinching Scrooge. Perhaps you’re a reincarnation:a wannabe latter day poor man’s Donald Trump busily snatching up and profiteeringfrom the financial wreckage of your fellow neighbour’s misfortunes.

    And now, asyou grab and make out like a bandit, cocky with self-importance like a happyfool gathering his treasure and puffed by self-aggrandisement, you care notabout the cause of these circumstances, the financially shattered lives ofmillions, the collapse of banking confidence and trust, skittish markets andcurrency debasement, the printing of money to support a dysfunctional andspendthrift government or the hoards of the unemployed. The important thinghere is the welfare of the selfish and blinkered jkennedy.

  • #253255

    jeb2886
    Member

    And wrong again… I told you it doesn’t matter what the government does, the ordinary citizen can not be “rich”, to be rich, you must take wealth from someone else so that they owe YOU. To create riches, you must create something, sell it to someone else and create a debt in your favour. Everyone can’t sell to everyone else and expect to be rich. It’s a zero sum game. If I sell to you, I am rich, for you to become rich, you must sell to me, then we’re right off where we started.
    I have said many times that the actions of the government where to maintain the general wealth of the ordinary citizen as a level that is sustainable. Their actions are to lock in everyones wealth, and to prevent the wealthy from stealing en mass from the rest of the country. This happened, otherwise I would have had 30 or more properties by now. My position on the government is they did what they had to, to maintain the status quo.
    As for my actions, like I’ve said before, if you play by the rules your parents taught you, your teaches taught you, and the rules that the media teaches, then you’re stuck at the income level you were born at, with only a very few people ever moving up or down that hierarchy. The system is a zero sum game, if you play by those rules, you’ll end up in a zero sum position.
    It’s not the system that is broken, it’s how people view the system and what they believe they can get from the system. I’m not saying it’s right, but I’m not going to be an idiot and hide my head in the sand when opportunity knocks just to appease the majority.

  • #253265

    jeb2886
    Member

    I’ve been preaching to everyone not to fall for it and to buy. Instead, they’ve listened to people who told them the world was falling apart and they would be lucky to have a job…. sure enough, this year everything starts turning around and they start looking. They’re all SOL. Not one person has closed on a house, and it’s no wonder. 50 offers come in, all cash (yes that’s real.. yes I’ve seen it many times). They simply can’t compete. Had they bought 2 years ago even, they could have picked any house on the market and gotten it. Instead, they’re getting priced out, with housing up nearly 100% and with I suspect will be cash buyers pushing it up another 50% before they back off.
    The reason the news hasn’t reported nearly 100% is because these cash buyers are coming in very high, and their prices are often not being taken into consideration when doing comps because they’re so far off the trailing 12 month averages. Also, many homes that were purchased last year, are still closing and they’re at much lower prices, driving down the averages. In a year, we’ll see the new comparables and they’ll show 100% gains most likely.
    I never hid what I was doing, I always pushed for people to buy, and I always showed people the numbers, but there are so many negative people out there, that its’ very difficult to change someones mind, until they see it in the news and everywhere around them.

  • #253268

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]And wrong again… I told you it doesn’t matter what the government does, the ordinary citizen can not be “rich”, to be rich, you must take wealth from someone else so that they owe YOU. To create riches, you must create something, sell it to someone else and create a debt in your favour. Everyone can’t sell to everyone else and expect to be rich. It’s a zero sum game. If I sell to you, I am rich, for you to become rich, you must sell to me, then we’re right off where we started.
    I have said many times that the actions of the government where to maintain the general wealth of the ordinary citizen as a level that is sustainable. Their actions are to lock in everyones wealth, and to prevent the wealthy from stealing en mass from the rest of the country. This happened, otherwise I would have had 30 or more properties by now. My position on the government is they did what they had to, to maintain the status quo.
    As for my actions, like I’ve said before, if you play by the rules your parents taught you, your teaches taught you, and the rules that the media teaches, then you’re stuck at the income level you were born at, with only a very few people ever moving up or down that hierarchy. The system is a zero sum game, if you play by those rules, you’ll end up in a zero sum position.
    It’s not the system that is broken, it’s how people view the system and what they believe they can get from the system. I’m not saying it’s right, but I’m not going to be an idiot and hide my head in the sand when opportunity knocks just to appease the majority.
    [/QUOTE]

    If it is atall possible, your ramblings are becoming yet more bizarre at so many levels.Let us, by way of example, agree that the possession of money is commonlyregarded as having some wealth and that having lots of money is to be verywealthy or rich. Within your framework of supposition it would follow that aman described as rich can only be so if another man or men are poor. Clearlythis is nonsense as is evidenced by the successful economic evolution ofsociety in general proving that real wealth is endogenous and the product of anexpanding economy. It therefore follows that in the absence of vibrancy in an economy,money or the supply of it can only be achieved by creating or printing it. Thisis not wealth creation, it is the Bernanke trillion dollar illusion bestdescribed as wealth dilution; an example of fooling some of the people [youincluded] all of the time.

    Returning tothe theme you mention, regarding the rules parents teach together with teachersand the media, you must be gratified that you have ignored all of their misinformationand are holding property at true market value and are now, just like theprevious owners, fully confident that the values of real estate is the backboneof wealth, wealth that will escalate and bring true riches in the near future.Em, can’t you see the pattern here? You’re doing what everybody else was doingand sharing the self-same hope for the future.

  • #253271

    jeb2886
    Member

    Ok, I see the root of your confusion over what I’m saying.
    Change money to “debt owed to me” from now on, it will help you understand. That is what it is, right? You did work for someone, they owe you a debt. It’s not you have $8, it’s someone in the society now owes you $8 worth of work. Someone promised to pay you in the future… you have now saved up $8 worth of debt owed to you.
    You’re right in theory. But lets look in practice. The US has had a real growth rate of 2.3% per year for 70 years. Guess what else is stable at 2.3%, productivity increases. We become 2.3% more productive, so we earn 2.3% more as a country, and then spend that 2.3%. The only way for us to make 2.3% more is to spend the 2.3% on someone else, so they’ll have the 2.3% to spend on someone else. Around and around it goes, until everyone has made and spent 2.3% more and now the whole country has produced 2.3% more output. No mysterious money was created….
    For me to make $1 million dollars, I need to sell someone $1 million dollars worth of product. Zero sum game. If everyone hogged this wealth, then the economy wouldn’t produce 2.3% more each year, which matches up with our increased productivity.
    For me to have extra money, someone else must give it to me. Clearly, not everyone can get rich. This is why when they say the rich are getting richer… it really means the poor are getting poorer.
    2.3% also equals 100% compounded over 30 years. So back in 1983, the workers did 50% less than us. In 2043, the people working will be doing 100% more than us…. Think about doing twice the work load we do today… ugh.

  • #253273

    I have no intention in getting involved in this debate, for I see both sides of the argument. The final chapter of the Fed’s monkey-business has yet to be written. I tend to side with Esprit on this: it will eventually unravel, but perhaps not in ways we expect. As discussed in earlier years of this thread topic, empires rise, empires fall. It’s inevitablethe present dominance the US and the USD has in the economic affairs of the world won’t last, can’t last.
    On the other hand, the US had a huge collapse not only in the housing market, but the entire economy in 2008 (much of it driven by the housing market). That historic event, no matter how you look at it, created ‘opportunity’. What JK has done is no different than what some gringos did in Brasil when the USD:BRL forex shot up from around 2.40 to almost 4.0 in a six month period in 2002.
    (EDIT: Conversely, what many Brasilians did in the US, particularly Miami, in 2009-2010. Even the Governor of Fla has stated that Brasilian’s ‘saved’ the RE market in Miami)
    Presently, I have a ‘project’ I want to start, but having been in this country several years now, know all too well it will cost more than I’m anticipating/budgeting. Every 10 cent increase in the forex is extra padding to my cushion. I’m not trying to screw anyone, just wanting to take every precaution I can that I don’t end up being screwed. And should there be a big jump in the forex, which will be my signal to run to the cashier with all my chips, others will then later benefit by providing their labor and goods for my project. Win-Win.
    Gringo.Floripa2013-07-09 20:07:53

  • #253274

    jeb2886
    Member

    The only thing unraveling is in this statement “the rich get richer therefore the poor must get poorer”.
    The government tugs this way or that way, but the general public doesn’t really notice. They might temporarily feel rich (like 2000-2006), but then it will reset back to the norm. The wealthy will maintain their wealth more or less. Old money will do it better than new money. Some lose, some win, but the %’s can’t change by that much.
    What is going to break? The 2.3% productivity increase. Can you imagine trying to double your work load in 30 years? Right now people are feeling frazzled as it is. We don’t just optimize our workloads, we do it to our entire life. Everything has to get more optimized. From driving and talking on the phone to, eating at a restaurant and writing out an email. We’re constantly doing more and more.
    People need to maintain that 2.3% increase, or they will fall behind others, and what is being right? Having more than others. If you can’t speed up, you’re falling behind. Top off the fact that the rich are getting richer by peeling slightly more off each employees productivity each year and putting it in their pockets.
    This could change if the government does and FDR speech and basically changes the rules.
    The governments actions won’t impact the US’s dominance, they’re still the most stable and reliable country in the world. That won’t change for decades. No other country currently even holds up a potential of having this right now.
    When some country does show they’re stable enough to become competition for the US, they’ll then need to back it up with a few decades worth of history. Since that clock hasn’t started for anyone yet, the US still has a few decades to go.
    For myself… a few decades is plenty of time to readjust my strategies.

  • #253275

    Deleted User
    Moderator
  • #253276

    Awww, com’on Esprit, give the girl a break! It had to be quite a feat to go from trailer trash to beauty queen…. LOL

  • #253286

    tech-spec
    Member

    Captain Mantega and the Brazilian Economy:

  • #253668

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    A little tongue in cheek humour, but perhaps BenBernanke could be persuaded to print a little extra this month to save poor â‚ǨÀúolDetroit from the embarrassment of bankruptcy?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23369573

  • #253669

    graham
    Participant

    too late

  • #253672

    [QUOTE=Esprit]poor â‚ǨÀúolDetroit[/QUOTE]
    Talk about a war zone….
    (BTW… US Embassy in Iraq price tag: 750 MILLION dollars) Confused
    EDIT: Source =http://www.businessinsider.com/750-million-united-states-embassy-iraq-baghdad-2013-3?op=1

    Gringo.Floripa2013-07-18 21:41:47

  • #253673

    lynchem
    Member

    I think the quality or lack there of living in Iraq may indeed surpass various neighbourhoods of Detroit and surrounding areas – can you imagine the irony and disgustingly realistic possibility… Then to pour salt on a wound America has to let everyone know how awesome they are by building a ridiculously unnecessary Embassy.

    The land of the …..
  • #253676

    815
    Member

    Back to the subject at hand, the real seems to be picking up some steam. I have a friend who will go to the US in September and told me “a guy at work” told him that the real is buscando 2:1 again, I called BS. I thought of you guys.

    Comments?
  • #253679

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA] Back to the subject at hand, the real seems to be picking up some steam. I have a friend who will go to the US in September and told me “a guy at work” told him that the real is buscando 2:1 again, I called BS. I thought of you guys.¬†

    Comments? 

    [/QUOTE]
    No, 2.20 is the new normal for now with a trend to 2.30 and more due to high inflation, gov spending, loss of credibility of PT with mounting BNDES losses, continuing imports of oil, while US is now producing record amounts of oil. US economy is getting stronger.

  • #253680

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]US economy is getting stronger.[/QUOTE]
    Because people are charging more (again). Loading up on debt (again)….

  • #253681

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]US economy is getting stronger.[/QUOTE]
    Because people are charging more (again).¬† Loading up on debt (again)….
    [/QUOTE]
    No, people have better credit profiles, banks are not loaning easy money, Real estate prices are rebounding big time, stock market hitting new highs. Companies are leaving China and bringing home more jobs. Record oil revenues with an oil boom in Nebraska to Texas. Record nat gas production and low cost nat gas make the US the new chemical products champ. Lots of good things going on in the US economy.

  • #253682

    Two counterpoints below….

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/17/july-beige-book-analysis/2525043/
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2013/07/15/apocalypse-soon-the-u-s-dollars-grim-future-and-how-to-prepare-for-it/
    RE prices ARE rising, but still way below their 2006 high. Most people will never recoup what they once had, be it house equity or retirement fund value.
    Wealth Re-Distribution/Round One is done. Get ready for Round Two….
    Gringo.Floripa2013-07-19 09:22:42

  • #253685

    celso
    Member

    In Southern California prices are back big time. Few people are underwater.
    In fact few bought at peak and some of those walked away and gave the keys to the bank.
    I see homes in San Diego getting bidding wars and San Diego has great weather.
    Some neighborhoods are close to 2006 prices and going higher.
    Huge rebounds in LA and Northern California as well.
    Anybody who bought on the dip a few years ago is smiling all the way to the bank.
    I like you have my eyes on a place that could be irresistible during the next Real drop down.
    Dilma wants to stimulate the economy and get re elected. Her people don’t mind a soft Real to get things moving.GreatBallsoFire2013-07-19 09:51:10

  • #253689

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]In Southern California prices are back big time. Huge rebounds in LA and Northern California as well.[/QUOTE]
    True. Yet California is but one of fifty states in the union.
    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Anybody who bought on the dip a few years ago is smiling all the way to the bank.[/QUOTE]
    Jkennedy ——> Big smile

  • #253691

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Arethe lemmings nervously milling around anxious and impatient for approval tostampede again?

    “Thistime it’s different!” cries a desperate optimist.

    “He’sright!” cries another.

    “Yeahâ‚Ǩ¬¶wewon’t look so foolish if we’re all wrong togetherâ‚Ǩ¬¶let’s go!”

  • #253736

    The economy has improved. The banks are making gigantic profits and insist it can never happen again. The White House and the Treasury Department see little need for further action. Neither do many members of Congress. We have gone right back to the “what, me worry” attitude we had until the day before Lehman Brothers went belly up.
    Below are links to the first three parts of what will be an 11-part series. Perhaps to be of interest.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/tedkaufman/2013/07/17/an-unhappy-birthday-for-dodd-frank-as-momentum-builds-for-the-next-meltdown/
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/tedkaufman/2013/07/18/an-unhappy-birthday-for-dodd-frank-the-too-big-to-fail-problem-gets-bigger/
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/tedkaufman/2013/07/19/set-up-to-fail-dodd-frank-leaves-bank-regulators-overwhelmed-underfunded/

  • #253997

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    I have no intention in getting involved in this debate, for I see both sides of the argument. The final chapter of the Fed’s monkey-business has yet to be written. I tend to side with Esprit on this: it will eventually unravel, but perhaps not in ways we expect. As discussed in earlier years of this thread topic, empires rise, empires fall. It’s inevitablethe present dominance the US and the USD has in the economic affairs of the world won’t last, can’t last.
    On the other hand, the US had a huge collapse not only in the housing market, but the entire economy in 2008 (much of it driven by the housing market). That historic event, no matter how you look at it, created ‘opportunity’. What JK has done is no different than what some gringos did in Brasil when the USD:BRL forex shot up from around 2.40 to almost 4.0 in a six month period in 2002.
    (EDIT: Conversely, what many Brasilians did in the US, particularly Miami, in 2009-2010. Even the Governor of Fla has stated that Brasilian’s ‘saved’ the RE market in Miami)
    Presently, I have a ‘project’ I want to start, but having been in this country several years now, know all too well it will cost more than I’m anticipating/budgeting. Every 10 cent increase in the forex is extra padding to my cushion. I’m not trying to screw anyone, just wanting to take every precaution I can that I don’t end up being screwed. And should there be a big jump in the forex, which will be my signal to run to the cashier with all my chips, others will then later benefit by providing their labor and goods for my project. Win-Win.
    [/QUOTE]
    I just saw that real is trying to break 3:1 to the euro and I think I will be dipping in soon.
    That has been my target for awhile, like 2 yearsBig smile

  • #254110

    oweng
    Member

    Athiests are immoral, they don’t kill over religion. They kill over nothing.

  • #254390

    celso
    Member

    Dollar breaks 2.3 today with big name economist calling for 2.40 soon.
    Nice! 3.0 is getting closer.
    Dilma wants a weak real to get the economy rolling. Good Dilma, Bresser Pereira and Del Fin Neto.

  • #254392

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Dollar breaks 2.3 today with big name economist calling for 2.40 soon.
    Nice! 3.0 is getting closer.[/QUOTE]
    I’m doing some ‘dollar-cost averaging’ right now with some smaller transfers, but should we hit 3.0, all chips get cashed in! Long overdue….

  • #254393

    jeb2886
    Member

    If w keep going I would expect a 3.5 to be possible for a short period…. But we need to hit 2.80+ first.. I think we will see a panic at some point in there and possibility of a quick run up and them back down.

  • #254400

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    this needs to be re-named the dreamer thread. the people are already rioting in the streets and you guys want to double the price of gasoline and bread (wheat).

  • #254401

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=jacare] this needs to be re-named the dreamer thread. the people are already rioting in the streets and you guys want to double the price of gasoline and bread (wheat).
    [/QUOTE]
    Exactly, the cambio must fall big time to make Brazil competitive. Think back to 3.80 and more.
    Real still 10 to 15% over valued. So 3.0 is just a bit undervalued.
    http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/economia-geral,brasil-tem-4-moeda-mais-volatil-do-mundo,160801,0.htmGreatBallsoFire2013-08-02 08:13:34

  • #254411

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] [QUOTE=jacare] this needs to be re-named the dreamer thread. the people are already rioting in the streets and you guys want to double the price of gasoline and bread (wheat).
    [/QUOTE]
    Exactly, the cambio must fall big time to make Brazil competitive. Think back to 3.80 and more.
    Real still 10 to 15% over valued. So 3.0 is just a bit undervalued.
    http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/economia-geral,brasil-tem-4-moeda-mais-volatil-do-mundo,160801,0.htm[/QUOTE]
    If you are to believe the aritcle below, I think 2.40 would be a pipe dream. I believe that the China card that Brazil played ( putting all of their eggs in one basket ) is going to come back and bite them in the ass.
    Chinas economy is slowing very rapidly, in spite of the economic figures that they are publishing ( which are phony), and Brazil is gonna catch pneumonia.
    then US$ 3.20-3.50 is not far fetched.
    I have been waiting for a long time ( over 7 years to see the euro at 3:1 and it finally came this past week. Hope it stays there for the long term.
    http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2013/08/brazils-central-bank-under-pressure-as-demand-for-resources-slows-and-foreign-capital-exits/

  • #254414

    tech-spec
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001] I have been waiting for a long time ( over 7 years to see the euro at 3:1 and it finally came this past week. Hope it stays there for the long term[/QUOTE]
    December/2008 the Euro came up to R$ 3,37.

  • #254415

    jeb2886
    Member

    [QUOTE=jacare]this needs to be re-named the dreamer thread. the people are already rioting in the streets and you guys want to double the price of gasoline and bread (wheat).
    [/QUOTE]

    Some items will increase in price of course, but people will adjust. The main point is the currency is too strong for the countries well being. Weakening the currency will also align what people see over seas with prices locally. So a locally made POS will at least be the same price as a high end product from over seas, instead of seeing a Ford for 2x the price of a Mercedes over seas, at least they will now be similarly priced (examples not with standing).
    It will help exports and slow imports so that more locally produced items are purchased. I’m not sure what will happen with oil, but it won’t be good for PBR, and I know my PBR stocks are going to sink more :) But until they level the playing field with the rest of the world, they’re way out there.
    3.0 might seem like people dreaming, but the currency isn’t helping the poor, it’s hurting them and helping fuel the middle class into thinking they’re being ripped off, when in fact they’re simply being disillusioned by how much they really have.
    Brazil isn’t stepping up to the plate. They’re wanting more, but working less efficiently than the rest of the world, which means less output, which means less buying power over all and more poverty. Every year that goes by it gets worse and worse. And I don’t necessarily agree that we need to work harder/better or that it’s a good idea, but the fact is, the rest of the world is doing this. Each human in the world is producing more each year than the year before, but Brazil isn’t keeping up.
    I think more people are starting to realize that Brazil can’t keep up with the pace it’s been going. It’s been expanding faster than it’s been growing. It’s not that it’s doing something bad, it’s long term planning (getting children more educated, etc) but it’s also going to explode before it’s done. Afterwards, people should be more educated and in a better position to compete in the new market place, but it’s going to hurt…
  • #254423

    [QUOTE=jacare]the people are already rioting in the streets and you guys want to double the price of gasoline and bread (wheat).[/QUOTE]

    In about six months the minimum wage will most likely be increased, thus causing an immediate increase in the cost of goods and services… irrelevant of what the exchange rate might be.
  • #254430

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=oil&gas] [QUOTE=agri2001] I have been waiting for a long time ( over 7 years to see the euro at 3:1 and it finally came this past week. Hope it stays there for the long term[/QUOTE]
    December/2008 the Euro came up to R$ 3,37.[/QUOTE]
    Yes, you are correct, as a matter of fact it went as high as 3.41 but didnt stay there for very long.
    What I wanted to say, in my original post, is that it stays above 3 long term.
    On another note, have any of you contemplating on moving to Uruguay and get one of the licenses for growing/distributing some quality weed? Looks like an opportunity in waiting.Big smile

  • #254538

    815
    Member

    This was a quote from an e-mail I received this morning. If the government is trying to contain the dollar won’t this have a negative long term effect? They can’t hold it forever. Furthermore, haven’t governments learned that when it comes to markets pretty much all they can do is muck things up? Confused

    • O Dì≥lar comercial fechou acima de R$ 2,30 novamente ontem sem a participaìßão do Banco Central no mercado cambial. …
  • #254539

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA] This was a quote from an e-mail I received this morning. If the government is trying to contain the dollar won’t this have a negative long term effect? They can’t hold it forever. Furthermore, haven’t governments learned that when it comes to markets pretty much all they can do is muck things up?¬†Confused

    <ul style=”font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 20px; : rgb255, 254, 250; padding: 5px 0px 0px 50px; margin: 0px; font-size: 18px; color: rgb105, 49, 0;”><li style=”margin-left: 15px; padding-bottom: 20px;”>O Dì≥lar comercial fechou acima de R$ 2,30 novamente ontem sem a participaìßão do Banco Central no mercado cambial. …

    [/QUOTE]
    The Gov long term cannot control the FX since Brazil now sports a widening negative trade balance with inflation now at 8% without the various price controls. 2.40 is there on the paralel right now and will go higher.

  • #254544

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Anote of caution: Gringos that are on tenterhooks with eager anticipation ofa better exchange rate for the Dollar would do well to remember that following transferconversion to the Real, an annual year on year Brazilian inflation rate of 8%will soon diminish any euphoria to a state of depression; it could prove to bea one-way street of no return. Be careful what you wish for.

  • #254547

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    truth

  • #254568

    jeb2886
    Member

    If the inflation rate is 8%, then the currency should drop naturally by about 8% yearly as well. It has less value to other countries as well.

    When governments try and control a currency with no tolerance, that’s when things get screwy. Eg pegging to the dollar. Bad idea. “aiming for 2.30” isn’t that hard, and it doesn’t guarantee they’ll stay there, just try and keep it there. If events change and it slips, they re-evaluate, they don’t fight harder and harder.

  • #254569

    celso
    Member

    The Brazilian currency can go from overvalued to undervalued. Long ago everything was cheap in Brazil. It appears the pendulum is swinging back from overvalued to reasonable and can keep on moving to undervalued. I am fine with that.

  • #254584

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    I’ll buy a house at R$3

  • #254597

    [QUOTE=andrewfroboy]I’ll buy a house at R$3[/QUOTE]

    If/when it hits 3.0, borrow money in the US and buy two! Wink
  • #254600

    agri2001
    Participant

    You guys are all wet behind the ears,
    Dilma says that inflation is totally under control.
    Lets see now instead of 18% its probably 8%?? Confused
    http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/news-and-features/dow-jones/article/18034/rousseff-brazil-inflation-completely-under-controlagri20012013-08-07 13:40:02

  • #254602

    celso
    Member

    A bottle of Skol just jumped from 3.5 to 4.5 reais at a regular barzinho. You call that 8%?

  • #254616

    RyanCarioca
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]A bottle of Skol just jumped from 3.5 to 4.5 reais at a regular barzinho. You call that 8%?[/QUOTE]

    in my bar it is yet 3.25 reais Smile
  • #254618

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Robert-1] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]A bottle of Skol just jumped from 3.5 to 4.5 reais at a regular barzinho. You call that 8%?[/QUOTE]

    in my bar it is yet 3.25 reais Smile

    [/QUOTE]
    Brahma is 3.5 so I’m a Brahmista.

  • #254619

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001] You guys are all wet behind the ears,
    Dilma says that inflation is totally under control.
    Lets see now instead of 18% its probably 8%?? Confused
    http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/news-and-features/dow-jones/article/18034/rousseff-brazil-inflation-completely-under-control
    [/QUOTE]
    No Dilma and Guido Mantega are wet behind the ears. They for years lie about growth and inflation. Check out how even with a stagnant economy inflation is high. Look at Petrobras and Vale at new lows, and the BNDES losing 38% of capital in last year. Dollar rallies 40% against the Real as Real continues to tank. Even Joaquim Barbosa bought a Miami condo, as the smart money leaves Brazil. Joaquim is one of the smartest. GreatBallsoFire2013-08-07 21:05:12

  • #254630

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=andrewfroboy]I’ll buy a house at R$3[/QUOTE]

    If/when it hits 3.0, borrow money in the US and buy two! ¬†Â¬†Wink

    [/QUOTE]
    At the present rate, in some areas, one can get a great deal. For example, I have a neighbor who has a selling price of 230,000 reais for about a year on the market. I get a discount of 40% from a year ago if I buy with dollars. Nice. GreatBallsoFire2013-08-07 23:17:55

  • #254664

    RyanCarioca
    Member

    All the US$ are now invested in the new buble..the US Stock Market. I won’t go be suprised when this

    go buble deflates 1 US$ goes back for 1 reais
  • #254674

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Ha, US market is not a bubble, it is barely ahead of it’s all time high from a few years ago pre-crisis.

  • #254688

    Shell
    Member

    Hard to say conclusively if US stock prices are in the “bubble zone” or not. Two things are for sure though. One, generally speaking, US stock price valuations are not in synch with the US economy, which is still suffering from high unemployment and very slow GDP growth. Two, US stock valuations are certainly influenced, to the up side, by the ongoing bond buying program of the US Federal Reserve. Does that amount to a “bubble”? Personally, I say yes.

  • #254690

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    If you can accurately predict the timing of bubbles you would be a billionaire, so it’s all speculation of course. I am confident that when the Fed stops bond buying it signals that the economy itself will hold up stocks, sure they will take a short term hit, but I still see a lot of long term potential.

  • #254692

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Isuspect that in the final analysis it may be inaccurate to describe what ishappening in the markets as a bubble because in this unique and thereforeunprecedented state of affairs, the situation may be better served by using asomewhat better euphemism than bubble and so perhaps in preference we should callit an illusion or better still, the grand illusion.

    Todaythe markets may reasonably be compared to the psychiatric wards where nursedoes her daily rounds with the prescribed medication that brings some semblanceof sanity to the pitiably daily lives of the inmates. And so it is in the psychoticbedlam of the North American economy where the Federal Reserve does its roundsand distributes its freshly minted medicine of 85 billion dollars each and everymonth over this cuckoo’s nest to maintain some semblance of sanity. In Bernanke’shospice for the incurable, his green blanket of money disguises the horrificreality of an exponential growth of an economic carcinoma that is the deficitof trillions; the grand illusion. Consider: how sick can an economy be if itneeds a monthly bailout of 85 billion adding to the already festering trillions?Forest Gump’s momma could tell you that stupid is as stupid does.

  • #254693

    Shell
    Member

    If politicians AND voters man up and deal with the fundamental structural debt issues, namely social security and medicare, I agree that the long term potential is probably positive. If they don’t, then the USA will follow the same fiscal path as Greece and Detroit.

  • #254696

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    Isuspect that in the final analysis it may be inaccurate to describe what ishappening in the markets as a bubble because in this unique and thereforeunprecedented state of affairs, the situation may be better served by using asomewhat better euphemism than bubble and so perhaps in preference we should callit an illusion or better still, the grand illusion.

    Todaythe markets may reasonably be compared to the psychiatric wards where nursedoes her daily rounds with the prescribed medication that brings some semblanceof sanity to the pitiably daily lives of the inmates. And so it is in the psychoticbedlam of the North American economy where the Federal Reserve does its roundsand distributes its freshly minted medicine of 85 billion dollars each and everymonth over this cuckoo’s nest to maintain some semblance of sanity. In Bernanke’shospice for the incurable, his green blanket of money disguises the horrificreality of an exponential growth of an economic carcinoma that is the deficitof trillions; the grand illusion. Consider: how sick can an economy be if itneeds a monthly bailout of 85 billion adding to the already festering trillions?Forest Gump’s momma could tell you that stupid is as stupid does.

    [/QUOTE]

    Clap
  • #254697

    celso
    Member

    Basic economic theory is that the Government must print and spend money in slow times. The USA is getting stronger. The economy is getting better. The place with problems is Brazil. Dilma and the PT are trashing the future of the country. Petrobras and Vale are in a state of collapse.

  • #254699

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Basic economic theory is that the Government must print and spend money in slow times. The USA is getting stronger. The economy is getting better. The place with problems is Brazil. Dilma and the PT are trashing the future of the country. Petrobras and Vale are in a state of collapse.[/QUOTE]

    But if your implication is that the US is not with problems, then with all due respect, you are like those gringoes here that look at Brazil with bizzaro rose colored glasses and say it is all fun in the sun with no violence, pollution, corruption and f***ed up culture.
    The US is running a giant Ponzi scheme. Maybe we should change that name to a Madoff scheme and let ole Charles rest in peace.
  • #254700

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Robert-1] All the US$ are now invested in the new buble..the US Stock Market. I won’t go be suprised when this

    go buble deflates 1 US$ goes back for 1 reais

    [/QUOTE]
    Nonsense. Record exports. Boom in the oil and gas market. USA is surging upward as the economy recovers. Brazil is sinking as the Dilma Lula Chinafication central planning model is falling into stagflation.GreatBallsoFire2013-08-09 16:29:05

  • #254701

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Basic economic theory is that the Government must print and spend money in slow times. The USA is getting stronger. The economy is getting better. The place with problems is Brazil. Dilma and the PT are trashing the future of the country. Petrobras and Vale are in a state of collapse.[/QUOTE]

    But if your implication is that the US is not with problems, then with all due respect, you are like those gringoes here that look at Brazil with bizzaro rose colored glasses and say it is all fun in the sun with no violence, pollution, corruption and  f***ed up culture.
     The US is running a giant Ponzi scheme. Maybe we should change that name to a Madoff scheme and let ole Charles rest in peace. 

    [/QUOTE]
    Yes, there are problems in the USA, buy they a small in comparison to what Brazil faces. Brazil was born in a Ponzi and continues to be a Ponzi. Even Joaquim Barbosa bought a condo in Miami as the smart money is leaving Brazil.GreatBallsoFire2013-08-09 16:33:43

  • #254704

    lynchem
    Member

    GBOF has a great point, the time to buy for Brazilians has come to an end. And in order to bring all that GDP that has departed the Brazilian shores is upon the horizon; 3:1 may take a while but it will undoubted bring massive investment! That should bring perspective to the ‘Fun in the sun’ mentality all over again!

  • #254705

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Brazil was born in a Ponzi and continues to be a Ponzi.[/QUOTE]
    OT, but Balls bringing up Ponzi reminded me of this true fact:
    After he got out of jail, Charles Ponzi came here. Became a legal, permanent resident of Brazil. Died in Rio in 1949.

  • #254706

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=picolino][QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Brazil was born in a Ponzi and continues to be a Ponzi.[/QUOTE]
    OT, but Balls bringing up Ponzi reminded me of this true fact:
    After he got out of jail, Charles Ponzi came here. Became a legal, permanent resident of Brazil. Died in Rio in 1949.
    [/QUOTE]

    Ha! I did not know that. I only knew that he hailed from my lovely city, Philadelphia. That he met his demise here is news to me.
  • #254723

    Shell
    Member

    Please show me the economics textbook where it says that “basic economic theory is the government must print and spend money in slow economic times”. I would agree that some people’s OPINION is that this is how government should deal with poor economic conditions. Other people’s opinion is that when government does that, it prolongs poor economic times rather than shortening them, because it allows inefficiencies in the economy to exist longer than they otherwise would without the stimulative government spending. Case in point, the USA endured the worst recession since the great depression. The USA “stimulated” it’s economy in one fell swoop to the tune of almost a trillion dollars. The USA continues to this day to “stimulate” it’s economy by virtue of the federal reserve bond buying program in the magnitude of hundreds of billions of dollars per year. Despite all of that “stimulus”, as of right now the unemployment rate in the USA is far higher than it ever has been in the past considering that it is 40+ months out of the recession, and the GDP growth is far less than it has been in the past, again 40+ months since the recession ended. Draw your own conclusions from those facts.

  • #254725

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    Well how is the US economic recovery compared to the EU, where austerity measures were taken instead of stimulus? google ‘us vs eu economic recovery’
    jacare2013-08-10 13:19:30

  • #254822

    RyanCarioca
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]Basic economic theory is that the Government must print and spend money in slow times. The USA is getting stronger. The economy is getting better………………..[/QUOTE]

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
  • #254857

    lynchem
    Member

    [QUOTE=carloseduardo]Please show me the economics textbook where it says that “basic economic theory is the government must print and spend money in slow economic times”. I would agree that some people’s OPINION is that this is how government should deal with poor economic conditions. Other people’s opinion is that when government does that, it prolongs poor economic times rather than shortening them, because it allows inefficiencies in the economy to exist longer than they otherwise would without the stimulative government spending. Case in point, the USA endured the worst recession since the great depression. The USA “stimulated” it’s economy in one fell swoop to the tune of almost a trillion dollars. The USA continues to this day to “stimulate” it’s economy by virtue of the federal reserve bond buying program in the magnitude of hundreds of billions of dollars per year. Despite all of that “stimulus”, as of right now the unemployment rate in the USA is far higher than it ever has been in the past considering that it is 40+ months out of the recession, and the GDP growth is far less than it has been in the past, again 40+ months since the recession ended. Draw your own conclusions from those facts. [/QUOTE]

    Printing money doesn’t help as much as everyone thought:
  • #254862

    Shell
    Member

    I think the best way to stimulate the private sector of an economy is for the public sector to reduce taxes, reduce burdensome regulation on business, and otherwise try to find fair and feasible ways to work with the private sector, to most everyone’s greater benefit. What tends to happen too often is the public sector, government, gets so big that it becomes a defacto economy unto itself, and it is in competition with the private sector. That is one of Brazil’s primary problems in my opinion. The private sector has been growing the last 10 years, but it has grown to the point where it is coming into open competition with government, and government does not like that. The key to future private sector growth in Brazil is reducing the size of government in Brazil, to give space for the private sector to grow. Brazil needs to start electing people who promise to teach people how to fish, not to give them fish, if you grasp my analogy.

  • #254866

    brazil2010
    Member

    Why does no one in Brazil seem to believe in a smaller state? There is nothing like a tea party movement here at all, as far as I can see, which is strange given the equally strong evangelical movement both here and in the US, which tends toward fiscal conservatism in the anglosphere.

    I know the answer, everyone wants a cushy job.
    Meanwhile, in fascist Argentina- Christina fernandez wants you to have an erection
  • #254871

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=carloseduardo]I think the best way to stimulate the private sector of an economy is for the public sector to reduce taxes, reduce burdensome regulation on business, and otherwise try to find fair and feasible ways to work with the private sector, to most everyone’s greater benefit. What tends to happen too often is the public sector, government, gets so big that it becomes a defacto economy unto itself, and it is in competition with the private sector. That is one of Brazil’s primary problems in my opinion. The private sector has been growing the last 10 years, but it has grown to the point where it is coming into open competition with government, and government does not like that. The key to future private sector growth in Brazil is reducing the size of government in Brazil, to give space for the private sector to grow. Brazil needs to start electing people who promise to teach people how to fish, not to give them fish, if you grasp my analogy. [/QUOTE]

    This will happen when pigs fly! Or if a decent country invades and takes over. Regime change!!!!
  • #254872

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=jamest]Why does no one in Brazil seem to believe in a smaller state? There is nothing like a tea party movement here at all, as far as I can see, which is strange given the equally strong evangelical movement both here and in the US, which tends toward fiscal conservatism in the anglosphere.

    I know the answer, everyone wants a cushy job.
    Meanwhile, in fascist Argentina- Christina fernandez wants you to have an erection

    [/QUOTE]

    I don’t think THEY believe in anything! They regurgitate what O Grobo wants them to believe. Most of them would not even understand the question you are proposing.
  • #254875

    lynchem
    Member

    [QUOTE=carloseduardo]Brazil needs to start electing people who promise to teach people how to fish, not to give them fish, if you grasp my analogy. [/QUOTE]

    Who in their right mind would elect someone that says “work hard and earn your living” vs a person who would offer free handouts…..? LOL
  • #254876

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=jamest]Meanwhile, in fascist Argentina- Christina fernandez wants you to have an erection[/QUOTE]
    Nice to see that several of us here on the forum also follow the sovereign man.

  • #254879

    [QUOTE=picolino]Nice to see that several of us here on the forum also follow the sovereign man.[/QUOTE]
    +1
    Speaking of elections and politicians worth at least two centavos (or more), I wonder what it would take to convince FHC to run again?

  • #254888

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=Leblon][QUOTE=carloseduardo]Brazil needs to start electing people who promise to teach people how to fish, not to give them fish, if you grasp my analogy. [/QUOTE]

    Who in their right mind would elect someone that says “work hard and earn your living” vs a person who would offer free handouts…..? LOL

    [/QUOTE]

    Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo true!
  • #254894

    celso
    Member

    So a part of the White House fence fell down and Obama told the Head of Building Management to get a contractor to fix it.
    The department head went to three contractors, an American, a Canadian and a Brazilian.
    The American looked at the fence and said I can fix it for 1200 dollars. 1000 for material and 200 for me.
    The Canadian said I can fix it for 800 dollars. 500 for material a hundred for the Mexican labor and 200 for me.
    So he asked the Brazilian How is your bid? He said 2,800 dollars.
    Manager said How come so much? Brazilian: 1000 for me, 1000 for you and we hire the Canadian for 800 to fix the fence.
    This was floating around Facebook Gringoes…

  • #254898

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    ha, sad but probably close to true, though I’d probably switch the Canadian and the American, not sure Canada uses as much Mexican Labor as the US does.

  • #254909

    lynchem
    Member

    [QUOTE=andrewfroboy]ha, sad but probably close to true, though I’d probably switch the Canadian and the American, not sure Canada uses as much Mexican Labor as the US does. [/QUOTE]

    We use mexican labour, in fact in several case they are flown in, and they are paid more! lol
  • #254912

    Shell
    Member

    [QUOTE=Leblon][QUOTE=carloseduardo]Brazil needs to start electing people who promise to teach people how to fish, not to give them fish, if you grasp my analogy. [/QUOTE]

    Who in their right mind would elect someone that says “work hard and earn your living” vs a person who would offer free handouts…..? LOL[/QUOTE] That’s the problem. Too many people don’t see these “free handouts” for what they really are, which is payoff to be blindly obedient servile subjects. The reality is nothing in life is free.

  • #254913

    lynchem
    Member

    [QUOTE=carloseduardo][QUOTE=Leblon][QUOTE=carloseduardo]Brazil needs to start electing people who promise to teach people how to fish, not to give them fish, if you grasp my analogy. [/QUOTE]

    Who in their right mind would elect someone that says “work hard and earn your living” vs a person who would offer free handouts…..? LOL

    [/QUOTE]

    That’s the problem. Too many people don’t see these “free handouts” for what they really are, which is payoff to be blindly obedient servile subjects. The reality is nothing in life is free.

    [/QUOTE]

    Thank you Socrates, but it’s not just the flip of a switch that will change everything. You’re proposing entirely economic overhaul and the old school russians didn’t enjoy that ride. The beauty of a capitalistic society is hard work can pay off with an entrepreneurial mindset, the level playing field proves this point. If there were not point in acquiring wealth then economics wouldn’t really matter much and we’d all have star trek replicators ‘earl grey hot’ and playing zen-buddhist games in the garden as ‘equals’.
  • #254970

    Shell
    Member

    For sure, just the flip of a switch will not change everything (the rest of your reply I don’t really understand, seems incoherent). That’s why I said “Brazilians need to START….”, implying that the change that needs to happen could start at some point by doing as I suggested. I did not say that STARTING would change everything just like flipping a switch.

  • #254971

    Shell
    Member

    2 weeks ago I would have said “no way”. But with the way it is shooting up this week, maybe even higher than 2.75 by year end.

  • #254973

    jeb2886
    Member

    I’m betting in the 2.50-2.60 range the government starts to try to slow things down. It’s not a good idea to try and break a trend, but it’s a good idea to put the brakes on things and slow things down so it doesn’t become a panic sell off.

  • #254983

    lynchem
    Member

    The real is at a four year low, should we hit the 3.0 like the early 2000’s…?

  • #254984

    Shell
    Member

    There are pros and cons to the issue. Maybe a real that is 3:1 to the USD helps Brazil more than it hurts it, because it makes things Brazil exports cheaper for the buyers of said exports. I know it also makes imports MORE expensive, but Brazil does not import that much. I personally never buy any imported items in Brazil. Don’t need to. Brazil produces everything I need, and the quality is usually acceptable for the price.

  • #255020

    Ron
    Participant

    2.38 today. Is this just a spike or is the Real crashing? (I love the graph.)

    Down 20% on the Euro in 18 months.
    2014 is gearing up to be very interesting. World Cup – protests, and foreign investment taking to the hills. The Olympics must be looking very uncertain.
    Could be time to lock yourself in and buy a gun – they are going to want to blame someone.
  • #255022

    Shell
    Member

    Won’t the cheaper real stimulate foreign investment? I sure look a lot more forward to my weekly ATM withdrawals (dollars into reals) than I did a year ago. 35% more reals per dollar than a year ago, and yes the prices of most things have gone up a bit during that same time, but nowhere near 35%. My rent is exactky the same as it was a year ago.

  • #255024

    815
    Member

    Gasoline* is rumored to be suffering ANOTHER increase this year.

    *edited: for clarity

    Paulistano USA2013-08-16 16:19:33

  • #255028

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    Sooner than that I would suspect. It was as good as announced on Globo. I keep meaning to top off my tank.

  • #255032

    celso
    Member

    Famous economist who helped the Plano Real guys says 2.70 soon, as Brazil is too expensive. I expect a bust above three as the BNDES now loans our nearly 10 % GBP with half loans going under. It was under 1% GDP four years ago. Brazil is losing credibility and is facing downgrades. Major back door inflation. As debt will haunt Brazil as will the PT electric discount now costing the Gov over 18 billion reais, and the trouble with Petrobras a huge black hole. The losses with wheat grain wiped out with the cold rains, Brazil will be forced to import wheat in the billions of dollars and Real must fall to 3.0 or more as Dilma and the PT know a cheaper Real will stimulate exports and create jobs.GreatBallsoFire2013-08-16 19:51:27

  • #255047

    Ron
    Participant

    [QUOTE=carloseduardo]Won’t the cheaper real stimulate foreign investment? [/QUOTE]

    I take it you are a Brazilian financial adviser, Carlos. Are you assisting the Government (and I use that term very loosely) in this present crisis?
    It is statements like yours which show the thinking behind the problem.
    Anyone who has bought money into Brazil investing in property or fixed assets has over the past three years seen their home currency investment value fall by at least 15% – luckily, in my case, the rise in real estate value has compensated for this loss. Add this to the inflation rate of the base currency and your loss is significant.
    It may come as a huge surprise to you Carlos but the general aim of investing is to MAKE money.
    Anyone who has bought property in the last few months must be crying right now, eh Squiddie?
    Once the Real bottoms out – then you will see foreign investment flood in.
    The tourism industry is one set to benefit from the falling Real – now all the country needs is a decent tourism infrastructure with service and facilities to support and maintain it.
    The people who are going to be hurt most by this country’s fiscal incompetence are the 90% of the population who can least afford it. Desperate people, in my experience, will resort to desperate measures. Take this warning lightly at your own peril.

    Captain Ron2013-08-17 12:57:47

  • #255058

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Thismythical foreign investment malarkey should be taken in the coincidental contextof the now defunct boom years when excessively high Brazilian interest ratesand historically unprecedented excessively low first world interest ratescoincided. Borrow cheaply in the latter and â‚ǨÀúinvest’ in the former. Simplicitymade more simple by inept politicians and hand-wringing central bankers. Investment?What investment? Money came into Brazil, reaped the harvest of naìØve interestand then buggered off. Where’s the investment legacy? [Same place as last year’ssnow]. Wacko

  • #255061

    Shell
    Member

    My question was “Won’t the cheaper real stimulate foreign investment?” Your response seems to be yes:
    Once the Real bottoms out – then you will see foreign investment flood in. I never said that people who bought reals at a higher price would not possibly be hurt by a devalued real. Everyone knows that significant changes in currency valuation brings a mixed bag of effects.

  • #255063

    Shell
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    This mythical foreign investment malarkey should be taken in the coincidental context of the now defunct boom years when excessively high Brazilian interest rates and historically unprecedented excessively low first world interest rates coincided. Borrow cheaply in the latter and â‚ǨÀúinvest’ in the former. Simplicity made more simple by inept politicians and hand-wringing central bankers. Investment? What investment? Money came into Brazil, reaped the harvest of naìØve interest and then buggered off. Where’s the investment legacy? [Same place as last year’s snow]. Wacko

    [/QUOTE] I agree with your analysis as far as the coinciding of the low and high interest rates. That is historical fact. But as far as the “What Investment?” part, you are wrong. Go to any beach city, and look at all the residential buildings that popped up in the last decade or so. There are thousands upon thousands of them. Who owns a big chunk of the units in those buildings? Europeans and Asians and Norte Americanos and Colombians and Argentines and Peruvians, that’s who. That’s one investment legacy. Go to the interior of Brazil, where vast corn and soybean and cattle and hog farms have sprung up in the last decade. A big chunk of the ownership of those farms is estrangeiro, mostly European and North American. There’s another legacy. Sure, some capitol has taken flight as interest rates have come down, but not all of it by any stretch of the imagination.

  • #255064

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    [QUOTE=carloseduardo]Go to any beach city, and look at all the residential buildings that popped up in the last decade or so. There are thousands upon thousands of them. Who owns a big chunkof the units in those buildings? Europeans and Asians and Norte Americanos and Colombians and Argentines and Peruvians, that’s who. That’s one investment legacy. Go to the interior of Brazil, where vast corn and soybean and cattle and hog farms have sprung up in the last decade. A big chunkof the ownership of those farms is estrangeiro, mostly European and North American. There’s another legacy. Sure, some capitol has taken flight as interest rates have come down, but not all of it by any stretch of the imagination. [/QUOTE]
    How much is a big chunk? I’d be suprised if there was 2% foreign ownership of any type of real estate in Brazil. Posters on this forum are pulling out their hair trying to get enough money in Brazil to buy a house to live in.

  • #255065

    Ron
    Participant

    [QUOTE=carloseduardo]My question was “Won’t the cheaper real stimulate foreign investment?”

    Your response seems to be yes:
    Once the Real bottoms out – then you will see foreign investment flood in.
    I never said that people who bought reals at a higher price would not possibly be hurt by a devalued real. Everyone knows that significant changes in currency valuation brings a mixed bag of effects.
    [/QUOTE]
    Taken in the context of the discussion a cheaper ‘weakening’Real will not stimulate foreign investment. Investment will stay away until the currency stabilizes. Investors are now, or should be, waiting for the bottom of the curve. While the currency is in this period of flux investors will hold off. This situation could go on for years – and that is why the Government must check this instability.
    If you had said “Won’t the CHEAPEST Real stimulate foreign investment”, I would have said yes.
    Is there anybody on this forum currently in the process of purchasing property at today’s exchange rates?
    Now let’s try this one. Is there anybody on this forum cashed up and ready, sitting back waiting for the Real to hit a predicted low before moving in? My hand went up.
    On the other side of the coin there are plenty of investors trying to get whatever they can out of the country before they loose more.
  • #255067

    Shell
    Member

    My personal opinion is, what is going on is what I call a recoil devaluation. At 1.7, or whatever it peaked at, the real was clearly overvalued, caused I think by investors (wrongly as it turns out) assuming the boom would continue for some more years to come. Since it never should have gotten to 1.7 in the first place, when the revaluation correction occurs, there is going to be a recoil effect, pushing the valuation past the point where it will eventually come back to, which I think is in the 2:1 range.

  • #255074

    celso
    Member

    Brazil is going to 3.0 and much higher as the BNDES loaned out 10 % of GDP with money backed by treasury loans and lost 38% with more losses to come in a stagnant economy.

  • #255087

    Wellington
    Member

    [QUOTE=carloseduardo]Brazil produces everything I need, and the quality is usually acceptable for the price.[/QUOTE] I could not disagree more with this. I find Brazilian products poor quality and expensive. You must be living like a monk if you are satisfied with your lot in face of what the rest of the world can produce better and cheaper. I prefer to buy on-line and pay the tax on the very few occasions the Alfandega apply it to my packages.

  • #255091

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    [QUOTE=man of leisure] I find Brazilian products poor quality and expensive. [/QUOTE]
    A typical ‘glass half empty’ statement. Try: I find Brazilian products superior to the Chinese cr@p one finds in the stores these days. Chopp half full!!! Smile

  • #255092

    [QUOTE=jacare]
    A typical ‘glass half empty’ statement. Try: I find Brazilian products superior to the Chinese cr@p one finds in the stores these days. Chopp half full!!! [/QUOTE]
    Ao contrarioâ‚Ǩ¬¶ BR-manufactured products are by and large inferior and double/triple the cost of ‘crap’ made in China. Case in point: I needed the simple apparatus that punches rivets into gutters and downspouts. The BR version was three times the price of the Chinese version, and it had the look and feel that after one day’s use it would break. The Chinese version had a firmer, more solid feel. Bought it two years ago now, have used it several times, and still functions fine.
    Speaking of ‘half full/empty’ glasses…. What is simple glassware made of? Mainly silica, available virtually everywhere on the planet. Made in China wine glass (a large goblet, not the typical tiny taìßa) R$8 per stem; made in Brazil wine glass (similar size, and just glass, no ‘lead crystal’ content): R$32. So the BR goblet, at today’s forex would set me back a little over eleven dollars a stem, whereas the Chinese brand would be about three bucks! WTF?!?
    The list goes onâ‚Ǩ¬¶.
    Gringo.Floripa2013-08-18 11:02:17

  • #255095

    Wellington
    Member

    Okay, let me rephrase it! Brazilians find Brazilian products poor quality and expensive. Problem now is that the cost of buying better quality imported counterparts has just jumped. Luckily for me, my revenue is in Sterling rather than Reais so the bags from the UK with Marks and Spencer kids (that don’t fall apart after one wash) clothes are getting cheaper! Today I am seeing 3.7 to the pound when this time last year it was 2.7.man of leisure2013-08-18 11:41:17

  • #255097

    lynchem
    Member

    I hate having things go bust, but it’s also good to keep your warranty for as long as possible on any products you purchase.

  • #255098

    Liliqtozin
    Member

    A Brazilian cr@p vs. Chinese cr@p might make a good thread.
    Stemware??? I only drink out of a Copo Americano!!!

  • #255100

    815
    Member

    [QUOTE=man of leisure][QUOTE=carloseduardo]Brazil produces everything I need, and the quality is usually acceptable for the price.[/QUOTE] I could not disagree more with this. I find Brazilian products poor quality and expensive. You must be living like a monk if you are satisfied with your lot in face of what the rest of the world can produce better and cheaper. I prefer to buy on-line and pay the tax on the very few occasions the Alfandega apply it to my packages. [/QUOTE]

    +1
    I thought the same thing when I read his post!
  • #255101

    [QUOTE=jacare]Stemware??? I only drink out of a Copo Americano!!![/QUOTE]
    I too would be leery of drinking any vinho sold in Mato Grosso! Best to stick to beer. LOL

  • #255120

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA] [QUOTE=man of leisure][QUOTE=carloseduardo]Brazil produces everything I need, and the quality is usually acceptable for the price.[/QUOTE]  I could not disagree more with this.   I find Brazilian products poor quality and expensive.  You must be living like a monk if you are satisfied with your lot in face of what the rest of the world can produce better and cheaper.  I prefer to buy on-line and pay the tax on the very few occasions the Alfandega apply it to my packages.  [/QUOTE]

    +1
    I thought the same thing when I read his post! 

    [/QUOTE]
    Brazil leads the crap list making sheets and towels below the China standard. This applies to napkins as well. Crappy wax fine pieces that are useless.

  • #255121

    lynchem
    Member

    Napkins, in restaurants are probably the most useless thing one may find in Brazil….Angry

  • #255122

    Miles1331
    Member

    Agree 1000%, the downside is that in Brazil I reduced my level of consumption, as it is really disappointing.

  • #255130

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Paulistano USA] [QUOTE=man of leisure][QUOTE=carloseduardo]Brazil produces everything I need, and the quality is usually acceptable for the price.[/QUOTE]  I could not disagree more with this.   I find Brazilian products poor quality and expensive.  You must be living like a monk if you are satisfied with your lot in face of what the rest of the world can produce better and cheaper.  I prefer to buy on-line and pay the tax on the very few occasions the Alfandega apply it to my packages.  [/QUOTE]

    +1
    I thought the same thing when I read his post! 

    [/QUOTE]
    Even the cars made is Brazil, same models abroad have fewer welds and cheaper sheet metal to save money and get much lower crash ratings. Most cannot be exported to Europe and the USA. Yes most of the made in Brazil stuff is crap, made to,sell to the lowest common denominator.

  • #255134

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Forwhat it may be worth to those whose thinking can wrap itself around theintricacies of the global financial markets, it’s interesting to note that thebig players such as China and Japan have been getting out of US treasuries bigtime. The rate at which foreign governments and fund managers have been sellingthe dollar debt is at a ten year high and sales have been on a solid roll forthe past five months. This, in turn, has increased the yield thereby making itmore expensive [a two-year high] for Uncle Sam to indulge in his favouritehobby; borrowing heavily to maintain the myth. I hope that Bernanke hasn’tbought a fiddle on eBay.

  • #255142

    miguel
    Participant

    Speaking of Treasury yields.
    The US 10-year note is now yielding 2.9%.
    The Brazil 10-year note is now yielding 11.9%.
    With yields of both securities at multi-year highs, any takers? Catch a falling knife anyone?
    miguel2013-08-19 13:56:51

  • #255143

    jeb2886
    Member

    Total debt owed to foreign countries is nothing compared with debt owed to citizens. Uncle Sam is just fine.

    Yawn. Boring information, as normal, gloom and doom.
    Over the last year, foreign debt went from 3857.9 to 4009.2 for ALL countries. China went from 1147.0 to 1275.8. I think the US will survive if China doesn’t buy up 100B worth of debt next year. They’ll figure things out. Stop reading the doom and gloom and hit up the actual numbers.
  • #255149

    celso
    Member

    The Real is doomed as the BNDES now at 10% of GDP with most loans going under. This is a huge generator of inflation. Petrobras in a death march as the PT forces them to sell gas below cost. The world is leaving Brazil as a place to invest as Dilma and the PT embrace Cuba.

  • #255155

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Arewe to really believe that Uncle Sam is enjoying such radiant health that notonly does he find it essential to print 85 billion dollars each and every monthto keep the US economy on life support but also has to fund the interestpayments on the already borrowed trillions of dollars; staggering sums ofunproductive money that are diluting the country’s wealth and credibility in anunstoppable too big to fail avalanche of political bullsh*t? But Sam feels justfine because he can print and print and print without care or consequence in animaginary world where they tailor the King’s suit from magic cloth.

    Ofcourse there can be no unqualified comparison made between the US and Brazilianeconomies or, critically, the respective importance of their currencies orindeed their financial credibility. In relative terms the Real is but a squishypiece of dog doings under the boot heal of the almighty dollar. So it would beof no surprise that the Brazilian government would be obliged to offer a higherrate of interest on its borrowings than would its US counterpart. And yet, asmy current published list of Brazilian sovereign bonds issues nominated indollars typically shows yields of around 4% when compared with Uncle Sam’syield of a little less than 3%. On the face of things this would appear to bemore than a little unbalanced given the perceived Latin American political andeconomic idiosyncrasies, yet there it is; the markets, rarely wrong in thesematters, puts its money where its mouth is and dictates the prices ofeverything â‚Ǩ including bull droppings obscured by smoke and reflected inmirrors.

  • #255158

    815
    Member

    According to Valor the market sees $2.30 at the end of the year.

    Paulistano USA2013-08-20 08:47:25

  • #255161

    wtdknknm
    Member

    I haven’t read every single post on this thread but most of what I have read relates to the USD. Without getting into too much detail, what are the main reasons why the GBP exchange rate is at its current level, is it what is happening in Brazil or is it more what is happening in the UK? Thanks in advance.

  • #255174

    Eliana FB
    Member

    Its amazing 3.76 on google and LCC are offering me 3.55 today. Cant believe it , never though the 4 would be back, but now? I have no idea why this is.

  • #255175

    Eliana FB
    Member

    maybe something to do with India? India is also a BRIC and the rupee is literally bricking it at the minute.

    same thing happened with Thailand and it caused an almighty storm, every c**t getting there money out at once !
  • #255181

    miguel
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    So it would beof no surprise that the Brazilian government would be obliged to offer a higherrate of interest on its borrowings than would its US counterpart. And yet, asmy current published list of Brazilian sovereign bonds issues nominated indollars typically shows yields of around 4% when compared with Uncle Sam’syield of a little less than 3%. On the face of things this would appear to bemore than a little unbalanced given the perceived Latin American political andeconomic idiosyncrasies, yet there it is; the markets, rarely wrong in thesematters, puts its money where its mouth is and dictates the prices ofeverything;

    [/QUOTE]
    For the last few years I’ve been amazed at the compressed yield spreads over US treasuries of the dollar-denominated Brazilian sovereign offerings – clearly underpricing the risk premiums. So a market correction, not only in nominal terms, but in the widening of those spreads was long overdue in my view.
    The local currency offerings have necessarily been much juicier in yield and in spread but still in need of a correction, now very much in progress. For the foreign investor and the carry trader these bonds have been an unmitigated investment disaster with signficiant losses in asset prices on top of the huge currency losses. If one views a resident investor in these local currency bonds as indifferent to currency fluctuations then he was hurt much less, but still licking his wounds in the losses in asset values. Of course these losses are all unrealized if the bonds were held to maturity but that is far from the norm here, especially those with the explosive financial cocktail of short-term liquidity needs and long-dated paper (that have lost the most recently).
    miguel2013-08-20 19:39:58