Exchange Rate Predictions 2012

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This topic contains 913 replies, has 39 voices, and was last updated by  Gilmour 9 years, 1 month ago.

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  • #193216

    Part Mises Institute, part Chicago School of Economics, part “InfoWars”, and occasionally, a dash of Espritoic aphorisms.
    Sometimes intensely heated, sometimes extremely humorous. Oftentimes, even informative; always entertaining.
    The Exchange Rate Predictions thread moves into yet another year of crystal ball gazing.
    In the ERP 2011 thread, forum member GreatBallsoFire predicts a 3.0 rate to appear in 2012.
    Yet member Dunga reminded us that (presently) the PT runs the show, and their economists state2.30-2.40 is what will be best for the country.
    Either way, both predictions are far betterthan the miserly 1.5ish-1.8something we’ve been experiencing for quite sometime now.
    Omitting the all too plentiful 2012 Mayan Calendar-type predictions, here are some assorted predictions for 2012 (in no particular order)…..
    Global 2012 Outlook(MorganStanley)
    Brazil Economists See Faster Inflation for 2012 & 2013(Bloomberg)
    2012 – Things that will happen(Zerohedge)

    Predictions for 2012: Economic Recovery
    (Telegraph UK)
    Gerald Celente’s Dire Predictions for 2012(Youtube)

    Four Top Brazilian Economists and Their Predictions for 2012
    (Brazilian Bubble)

    Five Economic Trends to Watch in 2012
    (Council on Foreign Relations)
    Top Economic Predictions for 2012(Boston Globe)
    Economic Predictions – Present (2012-2013) and Past (2008-2011)
    The Future in 2030?(Youtube)
    So then fellow gringos, and gringas‚Ķ what’s YOUR prediction?!?
    Oh yeah, I almost forgot gente… FELIZ ANO NOVO!!!
    EDIT: 21/11/2012 Just now realized the youtube video at link above (Future in 2030) has been pulled.
    Here’s a similar version: China Owns US?

    Gringo.Floripa2012-11-21 20:46:09

  • #193220

    Gianni
    Member

    Pip’n all over the world! haha
    I’m on a youtube run now because of you!

  • #193222

    scotty447
    Member

    2.00 – 2.20 for 2012

  • #193223

    GF, Congratulations on setting up an institution within Gringoes Forum! I want to see it extend at least until 2020!BorisG2011-12-31 13:03:38

  • #193227

    [QUOTE=BorisG] I want to see it extend at least until 2020![/QUOTE]
    And may we ALL still be here Boris! Older, yet wiser. Still free to pursue our dreams… and openly express our opinions. Thumbs%20Up
    Gringo.Floripa2011-12-31 14:26:59

  • #193232

    micko
    Member

    Not everyone agrees with the weakening Real prognosis ..

    Tendencias’s Blanche Says Brazil RealMay Advance 9.8% in 2012

  • #193233

    Gianni
    Member

    It has been said that reported inflation in Brazil touching 2ish% of GDP growth is fabricated for the soap opera watching dummies. I think it is of particular interest that we see inflation. I have to admit it’s been a while since I’ve been back in Brazil, and boy prices are up! And not just in Rio and SP, every major city people are claiming rising costs. And sorry folks it’s not because of world cup and the olympics, silly-heads! The currency isn’t really going anywhere and it has been in the 1.55-1.80 range for a few years now. What can we expect? I suspect a decreased portion of direct investment from foreigners!
    1.9 on a good day! sorry fellas!

  • #193234

    [QUOTE=DUNGA]Not everyone agrees with the weakening Real prognosis[/QUOTE]
    And may Sr. Blanche of Tendencias Consultoria be burned at the stake! LOL
    Keep Brasil strong, but it’s timeto devalue the Real.

  • #193235

    [QUOTE=Gringodude] I think it is of particular interest that we see inflation. I have to admit it’s been a while since I’ve been back in Brazil, and boy prices are up![/QUOTE]
    The increases you’re seeing have nothing to do with inflation, per se, and everything to do with the knee-jerk reaction everyone has when the minimum wage is going to be raised.
    [QUOTE=Gringodude]1.9 on a good day! sorry fellas! [/QUOTE]
    We’ll be sure to save some lenhafor your roasting too GD! LOL

  • #193236

    Well done, please… and he is kosher

  • #193237

    Gianni
    Member

    Are you kidding?
    The minimum wage is only going to raise something like 14%, if that, and it’s only been proposed. What you might have meant to say was that perhaps their easier access to credit or even minha case operation opening doors to spending. They’ve run amuck in the US shopping malls buying up this and that. It could be a natural reaction as brazilians are very trend savvy and are very good followers!
    It’s kind of sad that spend spend spend is the new motto, as a result you have high interest credit debt. But no one asks questions in Brazil, banks can say “Huh, who, nap sei!”…
    Good luck with my generous 1.9, use it wisely!

  • #193238

    micko
    Member

    I try never to make predictions. I think they are bad luck. But I have agreed with some of the bullish links I have posted. In the long run, the fundamentals are still here. Especially if you believe in growth based on consumer spending, which is the way Lula’s PT has engineered the internal economy. A lot of it is flash in the pan stuff designed to appease the Brazilian masses and also put on a patina of progress to attract foreign investment. The government here is expert at propaganda and dressing things up and putting on a show is what Brazil is best at … Carnival … pra ingles ver …Beer, Beach and Bum-Bum, the Brazilian mark is hard to beat!

  • #193241

    [QUOTE=DUNGA] In the long run, the fundamentals are still here. Especially if you believe in growth based on consumer spending, which is the way Lula’s PT has engineered the internal economy. A lot of it is flash in the pan stuff designed to appease the Brazilian masses and also put on a patina of progress to attract foreign investment. [/QUOTE]
    And this is indeed true, yet it assumes the rest of the world floats on a placid sea… which it doesn’t, especially right now. As Brasil climbs her way up the ladder of economic ranking (recently bumping the UK one notch down the ladder), she becomes more and more vulnerable to external events and influences. As the saying goes, the higher you climb, the father the fall. Anyway, I think it’s a fairly safe predictionthat things will continue upwards (with maybe a correction here and there), at least until 2016. By then, Pre-Sal better be pumping some solid returns. Otherwise….
    While I would love a long term run of a rate in the 2.0+ territory, I’d be happy for a brief, yet dramatic spike in 2012. Time alone will tell.
    Gringo.Floripa2011-12-31 16:10:14

  • #193243

    micko
    Member

    One in the hand is worth two in the bush … 1.85 is looking much better than 1.65

  • #193244

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=DUNGA] In the long run, the fundamentals are still here. Especially if you believe in growth based on consumer spending, which is the way Lula’s PT has engineered the internal economy. A lot of it is flash in the pan stuff designed to appease the Brazilian masses and also put on a patina of progress to attract foreign investment. [/QUOTE]And this is indeed true, yet it assumes the rest of the world floats on a placid sea… which it doesn’t, especially right now.¬† As Brasil climbs her way up the ladder of country economic ranking (recently bumping the UK one notch down the ladder), she becomes more vulnerable to external events and influences.¬† As the saying goes, the higher you go, the harder the fall (or something like that… LOL).¬† Anyway, I think it’s a fairly safe predictionthat things will continue upwards (with maybe a correction here and ther), at least until 2016.¬† By then, Pre-Sal better be pumping some solid returns.¬† Otherwise….While I would love a long term run of a rate in the 2.0+ territory, I’d be happy for a brief, yet dramatic spike in 2012.¬† Time alone will tell.
    [/QUOTE]
    Don’t you find the growth exciting? I do! Ever since my first time in Brazil, I see the basis for potential and it never stops. Yes of course there is much frustration to accompany that. However I feel it’s incredible and I am still excited to this day! Any entrepreneurs?

  • #193245

    Do you have any money to lose?

  • #193246

    [QUOTE=DUNGA]1.85 is looking much better than 1.65[/QUOTE]
    That’s like saying, “If I had one more drink, she might not be so bad…” LOL

  • #193247

    [QUOTE=Gringodude]Don’t you find the growth exciting? I do! Ever since my first time in Brazil, I see the basis for potential and it never stops. Yes of course there is much frustration to accompany that. However I feel it’s incredible and I am still excited to this day! Any entrepreneurs? [/QUOTE]
    If I was 20-something again, like you, yes, it would be quite exciting. Yet if I wanted “exciting”, I would have moved to Shanghai. I moved here (Floripa) for the sossegadofactor, not the growth potential. Yet little did I realize back then, I was on the crest of a huge wave, which has yet break. “Growth” here means more traffic, higher prices, and a quality of life which is less thanwhat it was a few years ago. I have no doubt this story is being repeated in other cities in Brasil.
    GD, rather than inquiring if there are any entrepreneurs, you should perhaps be looking for some venture capitalists. You’re young. Go for it! You might lose it all once, even twice. Most successful people have. But you learn from it; there’s no such thing as “failure”….

  • #193249

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    I suspect that given the fickleness of fate’s finger, one might be just as well wet that finger to test the wind or enter the gipsy’s tent and cross a palm with silver to glean the currency’s future. 2012 will be an extraordinary year; a year of years. The wind of change will blow away the smoke when the mirrors will reflect the nakedness of those wearing the magic clothes on Wall Street and Capitol Hill together with the befuddled nincompoops in Brussels. I wouldn’t flatter Brazil with any cards of its own to play in this game; Brazil is simply the tits & ass serving drinks to the players at the table while relying on their tips in this global economic symbiosis.

    Given the possibility of recession or depression in a changing world, I hesitate to predict anything other than to be afraid, be very afraid.

  • #193250

    Gianni
    Member

    I mean in the spiritual sense of being an entrepreneur. Personally I feel more attracted to the management or leadership side of this “wave” (as you call it). Why? Well because it needs direction and if you’re an inventor or creator, Brazil is not so easy or to the effect competent on how to function. Somehow I am wrong because 200 million people somehow function, though against all common sense, yet it works well for them. Though technology will increase and knowledge will also rise that awareness is key and i think there is a pool of success to be filled!
    I love to make sure everyone understands what it is their doing! Brazil needs that in so many ways! At least that’s my stake in it!

  • #193251

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    I suspect that given the fickleness of fate’s finger, one might be just as well wet that finger to test the wind or enter the gipsy’s tent and cross a palm with silver to glean the currency’s future. 2012 will be an extraordinary year; a year of years. The wind of change will blow away the smoke when the mirrors will reflect the nakedness of those wearing the magic clothes on Wall Street and Capitol Hill together with the befuddled nincompoops in Brussels. I wouldn’t flatter Brazil with any cards of its own to play in this game; Brazil is simply the tits & ass serving drinks to the players at the table while relying on their tips in this global economic symbiosis.

    Given the possibility of recession or depression in a changing world, I hesitate to predict anything other than to be afraid, be very afraid.

  • #193253

    Gianni
    Member

    Is that a poem about what we already know?

  • #193254

    [QUOTE=Esprit] I wouldn’t flatter Brazil with any cards of its own to play in this game; Brazil is simply the tits & ass serving drinks to the players at the table while relying on their tips in this global economic symbiosis.[/QUOTE]
    Ahhh… my aphorismatic high for the evening! Clap
    After that, who needs drinks? I think I just might be be the designated driver tonight.

  • #193255

    machdonald
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit]I suspect that given the fickleness of fate’s finger, one might be just as well wet that finger to test the wind or enter the gipsy’s tent and cross a palm with silver to glean the currency’s future. 2012 will be an extraordinary year; a year of years. The wind of change will blow away the smoke when the mirrors will reflect the nakedness of those wearing the magic clothes on Wall Street and Capitol Hill together with the befuddled nincompoops in Brussels. I wouldn’t flatter Brazil with any cards of its own to play in this game; Brazil is simply the tits & ass serving drinks to the players at the table while relying on their tips in this global economic symbiosis.

    Given the possibility of recession or depression in a changing world, I hesitate to predict anything other than to be afraid, be very afraid.

    [/QUOTE]
    In spite of Espirit’s poetic avoidance of making a commitment, I think he had identified a key point – the BRL-USD rate over the next year will be determined by factors outside of Brazil and outside of Brazil’s control.
    While the ripple effect of a 14% minimum wage increase gives me nightmares – it will speed up the inevitable insolvency of the INSS – this will be a longer term effect, as will be the positive effect of all that pre-sal money.
    For 2012, I predict a spike to as much as 2.2-2.3 when the inevitable Eurozone crisis reasserts its ugly head in the first half of the year, with a traceback to around 1.80 when the Europeans finally get their act together. An excellent opportunity for anyone needing to bring in a significant amount of foreign currency.

  • #193259

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Given the incredible variables on the global stage that are dominated by both unsustainable sovereign debt intermingled and continually aggravated by the gaggle of seductive clitoral tickling inept politicians that are fumbling at the wrong orifice, it’s impossible to predict future exchange rates. The world markets are broken despite the appearance of normality. Long term investment has been replaced by short term casino-type gambling, the rush to safety to the dollar with its negative returns, gold, cash under the mattress and prime real-estate. In short, the world is in a state of flux and stands discredited by the moral hazard procured by the collective subcontracting its ethics; human behaviour at its savage best; if its legal, it’s moral. Frankly I’m more concerned by the prospect of inflation rather than irrational exchange rates. For what it’s worth, I don’t see the Real taking a dive.

  • #193272

    Nil
    Member

    My predicition for this year will be very much in line with other folks on the forum- Real 2:20 -2:40 with lots of volatility in coming months but getting at 3:00 level by the end of this year is over optimism..

  • #193286

    Why would anyone (in their right mind, of course) would exchange a currency of a country with a relativly stable and diversified economy for federal reserve toilet paper or better yet for the make-beleif artificial monetary concoction in the final stages of agonizing demise?

  • #193301
  • #193420

    These first three months might presentthe window of opportunity some of us are looking for….
    “Some 157 billion euros ($203 billion) in debt will mature in the 17-member euro area in the first three months of 2012.”

  • #193425

    Gilmour
    Member

    I found it, a broker that has the USDBRL pair!
    http://www.activtrades.co.uk/
    Sadly, the spread is a whopping 100 pips ($10 = 1 pip, or 1% of 100k) and the swap rates are around 4 pips. Not worth it, IMHO.
    Saxo bank has the BRL futures contracts though…

  • #193429

    Gianni
    Member

    No one is mac friendly
    Etoro is for a three year old! But it certainly has more casino to it than swing trading!

  • #193433

    Gilmour
    Member

    MAC, bleh… If MACs run Java, and I don’t know that they do, Dukascopy is by far the best choice. I have to look very hard to find something really negative about them, and then, it’s usually a BS complaint that looks like a competitor wrote it.
    Etoro – I’ve never even tried them because their spread is too wide. That said, I just got the feelin’ they play games too. Who knows? I truly believe that company reputationand lack ofcustomer complaints is by far more important than regulation in the USA, Europe, etc.. After all, where were the regulators during the MF Global blow up?

  • #193434

    Gianni
    Member

    The American regulations is one of the reasons I’ve never bothered with forex. This afternoon now the GBD/USD has worked, then I got bit on yen.. It’s extremely hard to call! It really is almost as if you’re gambling!

  • #193446

    Gilmour
    Member

    I haven’t done anything since the 24th Dec. Feels almost strange not doing anything, but at least for me, there’s just not enough people doing anything right now to justify the risk. Hard to call? Umm.. yep.. people still have hangovers from New Years so nobody is doing anything.
    Well, I hope things get back to normal pretty soon becase I want to make some money.
    spongebob2012-01-02 13:59:31

  • #193448

    Gilmour
    Member

    This isn’t related to the exchange rate, but yes, it applies to investing in Brazil. Did you see that now Brazilian employees who telecommute or work over the internet have to have a signed workers card?I was initially a little surprised about this. After all, when someone is “working” from home, maybe they do the work and maybe they don’t. Maybe they go watch TV. There’s not a whole lot of control that an employer can exercise over the employee.
    Don’t know about you guys, but I can’t think of anything here where you can have someone do some work and not sign the card…
    The initial surprise wore off when I remembered that I already pay Brazilians to sit on their butts on Sundays to do nothing. As of now, I don’t know any other countries that require the Descanso Semanal. This and the 15% inflation-creating salary raise are just a joke.

  • #193452

    [QUOTE=Gringodude] This afternoon now the GBD/USD has worked, then I got bit on yen.. It’s extremely hard to call! It really is almost as if you’re gambling! [/QUOTE]
    All you’re missing is a waitress to bring you a cocktail… LOL
    Don’t spend it all in one place, sonny-boy! Wink
    Gringo.Floripa2012-01-02 14:26:49

  • #193453

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    The initial surprise wore off when I remembered that I already pay Brazilians to sit on their butts on Sundays to do nothing. As of now, I don’t know any other countries that require the Descanso Semanal.[/QUOTE]
    Bob, just be glad the holidays fell on a weekend this year! Today, everyone is acting like it’s still a hoilday….
    Gringo.Floripa2012-01-02 14:29:24

  • #193455

    Gianni
    Member

    Take a chill-pill, Phil!
    I’m just flexing my ability in a volatile market! It is a pure war zone! It has advertising that compares to penny/hot stocks. That’s a big turn off for me. You have people who trade for a while and then flip around and play guru. Very annoying!
    A clean game of up/down/up/down/down/up is fun on a rainy day!
    Don’t worry I won’t spend my allowance all in one place!

  • #193457

    Boris… could you translate please?

  • #193458

    Gianni
    Member

  • #193460

    Hi all, Wishing you a very happy and healthy, wealthy New Year to all the posters on here, some very interesting reading indeed. I am British, but have Euros and want to know whats your predictions for the next few months of 2012 as it is hovering around the R$2,40 to R$2,43 at the moment. Cheers, Sean(Latinboy)

  • #193467

    Gilmour
    Member

    @Gringodude,I would be curious to hear about your experiences with eToro, especially when things get back to normal. Especially:
    1- Does their client freeze up a lot, usually requiring a restart?
    2- What’s the pricing like? Let’s assume that you have 1 up candle and 1 down candle and then a doji candle that is midway between the high and low and the 2 large candles. If you buy, does it put the buy point around the high of the last candle?
    3- Are stops honoured? Let’s assume price is dropping, does it fill at your stop, or is it well below your stop?
    4- How well are Take Profits honoured?
    If 2 seems difficult to imagine, I can show you some examples. Some people call it range pricing: If you’re in a right range, and you press buy, it puts your entry at the rop of the range. The inverse for shorts. This is one of the “games” that I was talking about. This happened to me with “regulated” brokers.
    Back to your other post where you didn’t like the American rules, I would definitely say “renounce!” I was reading a story the other day about an American who renounced and turned around and got a 10 year tourist visa to go back anytime he likes. The blue passport doesn’t carry the same weight that it used to. Nowadays, all it seems to carry are headaches and complications if you have a life abroad.
    spongebob2012-01-02 15:42:01

  • #193468

    Gilmour
    Member

    @Latinboy:
    There are lots of services out therethat have “forecasts” for long-term price trends. GOOGLE is your friend. I forgot where I read this, but some service sent me an email saying that they expect the Euro to go to 1,27and then have a possible bounce from there. But pay this no mind like I do because they have about a 50/50 chance of being right.
    But I’m definitely bullish on the Euro long-termbecause I strongly believe that there are “powers that be” that wish to keep the Euro, and probably even GROW the Euro to include more countries. Think about it, with 1 currency, they can control DOZENS of countries. That’s great leverage!

  • #193486

    [QUOTE=spongebob]@Latinboy:

    There are lots of services out therethat have “forecasts” for long-term price trends. GOOGLE is your friend. I forgot where I read this, but some service sent me an email saying that they expect the Euro to go to 1,27and then have a possible bounce from there. But pay this no mind like I do because they have about a 50/50 chance of being right.

    But I’m definitely bullish on the Euro long-termbecause I strongly believe that there are “powers that be” that wish to keep the Euro, and probably even GROW the Euro to include more countries. Think about it, with 1 currency, they can control DOZENS of countries. That’s great leverage!

    [/QUOTE] What do you mean 1,27???? it is at R$2,42 now to 1 Euro

  • #193487

    micko
    Member

    [QUOTE=latinboy]What do you mean 1,27???? it is at R$2,42 now to 1 Euro[/QUOTE]
    I imagine that’s EUR/USD. Not very exciting as it’s 1,30 right now.

  • #193494

    Gilmour
    Member

    Latinboy, sorry, I was talking EURUSD. I think you get the “daily analysis from just about every company like Alpari, AvaFX, and many more… (I don’t specifically recommend these 2 brokers).
    Next time I get an “expert”analysis, I’ll post it or send you a message.

  • #193495

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    @Gringodude,I would be curious to hear about your experiences with eToro, especially when things get back to normal. Especially:1- Does their client freeze up a lot, usually requiring a restart?2- What’s the pricing like? Let’s assume that you have 1 up candle and 1 down candle and then a doji candle that is midway between the high and low and the 2 large candles. If you buy, does it put the buy point around the high of the last candle?3- Are stops honoured? Let’s assume price is dropping, does it fill at your stop, or is it well below your stop?4- How well are Take Profits honoured?If 2 seems difficult to imagine, I can show you some examples. Some people call it range pricing: If you’re in a right range, and you press buy, it puts your entry at the rop of the range. The inverse for shorts. This is one of the “games” that I was talking about. This happened to me with “regulated” brokers.Back to your other post where you didn’t like the American rules, I would definitely say “renounce!” I was reading a story the other day about an American who renounced and turned around and got a 10 year tourist visa to go back anytime he likes. The blue passport doesn’t carry the same weight that it used to. Nowadays, all it seems to carry are headaches and complications if you have a life abroad.
    [/QUOTE]
    Gosh they’re horrible, I lost almost 2k! I told you the leverage was a mess, not to mention, europeans waking up and the $600 spread! Wow!! They backstab you on stops, and the buy point is on the higher portion of the candle.. Wow i’m shocked! I must say it is a casino at 5am!

  • #193496

    Gianni
    Member

    GringoFloripa
    Sorry my friend

  • #193498

    [QUOTE=Gringodude]

    Sorry my friend[/QUOTE]

    While I don’t always concur with Sr. Gerald’s pov, in that particular episode, he was spot on! So I don’t understand your apology/sympathy/empathy GD.
    Yet RP has stated he won’t run on a 3rd party ticket. The Republican party is too f-n stupid and stubborn to nominate him as their candidate. IMO, the only way they’ll do it is if the public at large DEMANDS it. But the public at large is doped up on soma, their minds a gelatinous state of passivity, brought on by the media, especially Censored News Network, and FOX. <—- hyperlink intended
    Literally overnight, the media has gone from years of ignoring RP, to a full frontal attack. The edict has evidently been issued by someone, somewhere, “Bring him down!” The assassination of Ron Paul’s character is now top priority, and if they can’t find any real facts, they’ll just make something up. Once it’s been reported, it becomes true, even if recanted later.
    I like Sr. Gerald’s comparison of the election process in the US to the fake wrestling on TV; The “Washington Wrestling Association”. LOL
    At this point in time, it’s indeed all show. Actually, has been for quite sometime now, but this time the situation is dire. The only real “hope” is for some sort of American Springto burst on the scene. Yet the Arab nations which witnessed “Spring” weren’t prepared for the swell of popular uprising. The powers that be in the US are. Dissent will be quickly rounded up, and “quarantined”. It’s a sad time in which we live GD, but my friends and family there, the ones who still have their blinders on, can’t say they weren’t warned.
    Guess that rant was better posted in Ron Paul thread Boris started. Forgive me.
    So back on topic, or at least the sub-topic of this thread, dinheiro…. I see from the time stamps of your posts GD that you’ve been at the casino all night.
    Did you win?
    Coffee’s ready… gotta go.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-01-03 06:32:23

  • #193500
  • #193512

    Gilmour
    Member

    Gringodude.. sad to hear about eToro – I was hoping that they were halfway decent. There’s a saying I like “When you don’t know what to do, don’t do anything at all..”
    spongebob2012-01-03 10:22:40

  • #193514

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]Dissent will be quickly rounded up, and “quarantined”. It’s a sad time in which we live GD, but my friends and family there, the ones who still have their blinders on, can’t say they weren’t warned.
    [/QUOTE]
    Gringo.Floripa
    I’m a super conspiracy theorist (because more than half the “conspiracies” turn out to be true.) The American media has those people so hyptnotized that they don’t have any desire to express “dissent” in the first place. I think it’s easier to win the lottery than expect Americans to to be able to see things from a long-time expat’s point of view.
    Why do you think they created this FACTA? It’s to punish the 6 million+ American expats. J/k: this my be a *by-product* but the real aim is to have world banks under control of the US Government. Whether it works or not, I don’t really care. My parents have already put my FBI document in the mail….. After I start my Brazilian paperwork, America will be a very distant concern for me.

  • #193756

    Gilmour
    Member

    please for the love of God, post something. Don’t leave me as the last person commentating!
    I had an idea today — I don’t know if it’s worth it — but what if I created the first Brazilian domestic (and international) forex broker?? What do you guys think?I think it’s a big headache,but it would help out this country a lot and specifically where I live because at the minimum, you must have people who speak English. Until now, this doesn’t exist in Brazil.
    Please somebody, post something!

  • #193760

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    Please somebody, post something!
    [/QUOTE]
    I’ve just been waiting for GD to let us know how much money he won (lost) at the casino last night….
    Bob, I think it would be less hassle for you to hire 100 employees, than to become a forex broker in this country! Plus, in spite of the regulations, I’m sure there’s “questionable” clients one is always approached by. You just might help the wrong one exchange some money for the wrong purpose or cause, and be caught up in a NDAA dragnet, citizen, or not.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-01-04 16:50:34

  • #193777

    Gianni
    Member

    Forex Consulting might be a start!

  • #193782

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]please for the love of God, post something. Don’t leave me as the last person commentating!

    I had an idea today — I don’t know if it’s worth it — but what if I created the first Brazilian domestic (and international) forex broker?? What do you guys think?I think it’s a big headache,but it would help out this country a lot and specifically where I live because at the minimum, you must have people who speak English. Until now, this doesn’t exist in Brazil.

    Please somebody, post something!
    [/QUOTE]

    Okay, I’ll post something Рjust an opinion mind:Shocked

    Why not employ your hitherto calculating/guessing/gambling talents to work on something productive and useful rather than the parasitical occupation of a wastrel; that of buying and selling currencies devoid of benefit to all but yourself? Of all the slothful wastes of life, I can think of nothing worse for the mind and body than enduring the stress and loneliness of a gambler playing a notorious game without rules in a darkened room while wearing a blindfold. Adding to this you give the impression that you’re a petty-cash trader and therefore unlikely to have an opportunity to become wealthy, yet in the absence of ‘insider information’ you are susceptible as any of the big buck traders to associated stress illness and certainly closer to bankruptcy. There are better and more noble ways of making a living.

  • #193787

    Gianni
    Member

    I don’t know if I’m wrong or not here, but, Espirit, you are off your rocker! Unless you can account for economics, finance, and business in general, then you should realize it’s all a sort of gamble; the capitalists are among us!
    Do you have any alternative suggestions? Because I hope you know that putting your efforts to a good cause, DOESN’T PAY VERY WELL…. Gringodude2012-01-04 21:44:28

  • #193788

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Gringodude]I don’t know if I’m wrong or not here, but, Espirit, you are off your rocker! Unless you can account for economics, finance, and business in general, then you should realize it’s all a sort of gamble; the capitalists are among us!

    Do you have any alternative suggestions? Because I hope you know that putting your efforts to a good cause, DOESN’T PAY VERY WELL…. [/QUOTE]

    Not having been involved in any ‘good causes’ that were likely or not to show a return I will take the benefit of your experience in this area as being true.

    More to the point, and here you will have to use your imagination; of all the dark windowed limousines you’ve seen waft by and behind the walled condominiums wherein stately homes stand proud, how many of the occupants would agree with you and your definition of the term, gambling? How many of the owners of the glittering Las Vegas casinos would agree with you that they are gambling? Or the employer, successful in his business, producing, benefiting society, growing wealth and prosperity; is he gambling or off his rocker? Answer me those riddles, grasshopper.

  • #193789

    I second Espirit. This is not capitalism, it is thinly disguised casino gambling.

  • #193790

    Gianni
    Member

    You don’t get to pick a side, be quiet!
    The employer is engaged in a type of ‘risk’, the key term in either situation. A person who joy rides a few cocktails and throws a couple die is always taking risk. All of course being based on the financial dependence of maintaining a return or having appropriate control of your return/loss ratio. Sure a person managing a large pile of money can do good or bad, so what…
    It’s all risk…

  • #193792

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Given the flavour of the current fashion; Health & Safety and those darling comprehensive risk assessment statements, it could be argued that we spend our lives gambling. Let us agree to a definition of the word gambling and in the context of what I’ve said, gambling is playing dice, cards, having a flutter on the horses, roulette or playing the forex game; games of chance distinct from business.

  • #193793

    Gianni
    Member

    Ummm wandering away from your disapproval of the financial industry. And I’ll agree with you the nominal difference is fair. Let us focus on keeping the attractor factor! That is allocating said resources for a useful purpose, can you please suggest something. I want you to elaborate your concern for everyone to enjoy, thus, we’ll find out if it’s “worth it”. haha vs trying to make money! ….

  • #193794

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Even if I were so inclined, why should I make your living for you and in the process deny you your great life adventure? Everything you’ve learned and observed should provide for your future; ideas, imagination and the entrepreneurial spirit are the only alternative to the silver spoon. Smile

  • #193795

    Gianni
    Member

    Clever is as you write it and we can all enjoy! The only deprivation I feel is you holding back. The utensils life provides us are sweet, aren’t they? So why not cut the ish, use your vocabulary, and marry some wonderful ideas into something useful! Gringodude2012-01-04 23:40:55

  • #193796

    [QUOTE=Gringodude] You don’t get to pick a side, be quiet! [/QUOTE]
    You always manage to kick it one notch up, GD
    Check out this interview:
    Financial Sense Newshour
    The employer is engaged in a type of ‘risk’, the key term in either situation. A person who joy rides a few cocktails and throws a couple die is always taking risk. All of course being based on the financial dependence of maintaining a return or having appropriate control of your return/loss ratio. Sure a person managing a large pile of money can do good or bad, so what…
    It’s all risk… [/QUOTE]

  • #193812

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=BorisG]
    Check out this interview:

    Financial Sense Newshour

    [/QUOTE] This newscast commentary is a wonderful example of freedom of speech exercised by an impressive and articulate woman. Would that one or all of the nefarious protagonists that she named and shamed, accusing them of treacherous criminality, take her to task in the courts by accusing her of slander and incitement to financial anarchy. She was spot on when she mentioned the great unwashed flipping between ballroom dancing and football in the ‘bread & circus’ controlling media. Give this lady thirty minutes on Fox News.Shocked

  • #193817

    30 minutes? She is never going to get it. Moreover, I’d give her couple of months before she is “disappeared” for good.

  • #193823

    It’s an awesome interview! Brutish, harsh, pointed; so refreshing to hear someone who doesn’t use Double-speak. The idea of executing corporate crooks is a bit cruel. I think chopping off a hand, or two, would be an effective enough deterrent. Yet I think Boris is right…. Her name is most likely on the top of the list of complimentary memberships, to be issued to select citizens, for the soon to open Gitmo Golf and Waterboard Resort chain.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-01-05 11:51:26

  • #193824

    Treason ought to be punishable by death. This is the only viable deterrent.
    It is either a few thousand sociopaths who made it their way into the upper echelons of the government and financial kabal or millions of innocent ordinary citizens. Take your pick, there is no alternative.

  • #193838

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Regrettably, and as the lady said, nothing is going to happen until the great unwashed feel the financial pain. At present the situation is akin to that frog in the pot of cold water; it will stay in there as the water temperature increases until it boils to death. People are similar but different to frogs in so far that as a collective, they will tolerate incremental debasement of their standard of living Рas they have for the past five years – but there comes a tipping point when, unlike the frog, they’ll jump out the hot water.

    As of today the only sign of decent is coming from the Occupy Wall Street crowd and the Tea Party; apart from fringe media broadcasts like the one under discussion. As yet, the flippers between ballroom dancing and football are blissfully unaware that they are in hot water. From their perspective all of their problems are caused by some people wearing funny hats in a terror land far, far away. Support our troops! All of this crap could end overnight if the media was still a noble profession [if it ever was]. Ermm

  • #194113

    A panel of five “experts” discuss which country will be the “breakout star” in 2012. Four state (unconvincingly) the US will be the stellar performer; just one states (quite enthusiastically) that Brasil will be the star.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-01-09 13:14:53

  • #194115

    scotty447
    Member

    NO “breakout star” in 2012 Wacko…..only in 2013 or later.

  • #194180

    Ann Barnhardt is the women who courageously closed down her US hedge fund and financial investment business because she has a conscience. Most of her clients were farmers and she pulled their investments out and had them returned and told them to stay away from the markets. This is a hard hitting interview and is a must listen if you want to learn about the world monetary situation.
    She alludes to the rebooting of the system that the inner circle is now calling a reconstruction of the existing system. The big problem is the same foxes are watching the hen house. (In Europe as well!)
    http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2012/01/04/ann-barnhardt/financial-house-of-cards

  • #194533

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Oh ye of little faith… So what has happened to the $Real? Were all those predictions of an exchange rate with the USD reaching to infinity & beyond merely wishful thinking or reading the tea leafs? The best ‘dizzy height’ was at 1.90 during late November and today it stands at 1.77 while the dollar continues its slip, inch by Bernanke inch. Hope & change brothers, hope for change? Ermm

  • #194534

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    So what has happened to the $Real? Were all those predictions of an exchange rate with the USD reaching to infinity & beyond merely wishful thinking or reading the tea leafs? [/QUOTE]

    We’re barely two weeks into the new year. With 50 more weeks ahead of us, considering the instability that exits virtually everywhere, another shoe will drop, somewhere….

    “Patience is always rewarded….”The Fountainhead –Ayn Rand

  • #194536

    micko
    Member

    The government is freaking out. Foreign investment is way down. Where is the free money? It was all worked out with Wall Street investment brokers. Brazil the Best Bric. BBB. Beer, Beach and Bunda. Irrational Exuberance in the tropics.
    Watch the (English language) news. You aren’t likely see much negative reporting in the near term. Ronaldo and Romario are going on a tour and they are going to fix all the Copa scheduling problems. Expect reports of rising interest rates. Stable exchange rate too! This is the place! Send your checks and money orders, now!

  • #194537


    “This is the place! Send your checks and money orders, now!”
    <—- IP logged. Server is in Nigeria! LOL
    Gringo.Floripa2012-01-13 09:01:36

  • #194544

    Gianni
    Member

    Invest in Nigeria!

    They have been advertising since email was born. Do you remember those poorly written letters about some royal jackass wanting to send you money, but just needed you bank info! HAHAHA

  • #194967

    majazac
    Member

    How can I add screenshots here? I have access to live market rates – current USD/BRL projected rates are: 1Y 1.91 2Y 2.02 3Y 2.12 4Y 2.34 5Y 2.47 Not much anticipation of 2.2 this year I’m afraid….

  • #198188

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Uncle Sam’s green has been slipping & sliding – 10% loss in two months: $1.71 Stern%20Smile

  • #198195

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    Uncle Sam’s green has been slipping & sliding – 10% loss in two months: $1.71 Stern%20Smile[/QUOTE]

    W(here)TF is that emoticon for expletive deletives!?

    Yet historically, the forex always sucks between New Years and Carnaval. Planes and boatloads of tourists are coming! Imagine the billionsBACEN will rack up in just a two month period!!!

    Forgoing any war breaking out, be it the Falklands, or further ashore, we’ll suffer with this miserable rate for awhile longer. And to think, I’ve almost spent all the stuffing in my mattress from the good ol’ 3.0 days…. Cry

    Gringo.Floripa2012-02-03 20:36:57

  • #198277

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Perhaps the next catalyst for mayhem will be the Greek situation. Negotiations concerning the size and manner of a ‘haircut’ on the value of Greek bonds continue on the path toward a masked orderly default preventing the release of the dogs of war that would otherwise have them baying with insurance claims and have some of the European banks collapsing into chaos. Such a scenario is of course probable given the overall reaction by the Greek people themselves; savage tax increases to be followed by the proposed salary and pension reductions will not rest easy with the bewildered and the governmentally abused. The month of March approaches when things are most likely to come to a head. The European dream, that long awaited ripe faeces, is about to hit the political spin. “Incoming!” Dead

  • #198279

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=Esprit] <P style=”MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 10pt” =Msonormal><SPAN style=”LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-FAMILY: ‘Times New Roman’,’serif’; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-: EN-GB”>Perhaps the next catalyst for mayhem will be the Greek situation. Negotiations concerning the size and manner of a ‚Äòhaircut‚Äô on the value of Greek bonds continue on the path toward a masked orderly default preventing the release of the dogs of war that would otherwise have them baying with insurance claims and have some of the European banks collapsing into chaos. Such a scenario is of course probable given the overall reaction by the Greek people themselves; savage tax increases to be followed by the proposed salary and pension reductions will not rest easy with the bewildered and the governmentally <SPAN style=”mso-spacerun: yes”>¬†</SPAN>abused. The month of March approaches when things are most likely to come to a head. The European dream, that long awaited ripe faeces, is about to hit the political spin. ‚ÄúIncoming!‚Äù¬†<SPAN style=”mso-spacerun: yes”>¬†</SPAN><SPAN style=”mso-spacerun: yes”>¬†</SPAN><SPAN style=”mso-spacerun: yes”>¬†</SPAN><SPAN style=”mso-spacerun: yes”>¬†</SPAN><SPAN style=”mso-spacerun: yes”>¬†</SPAN><SPAN style=”mso-spacerun: yes”>¬†</SPAN><SPAN style=”mso-spacerun: yes”>¬†Dead</SPAN><?:namespace prefix = o ns = “urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office” /><o:p></o:p></SPAN>[/QUOTE]
    I love your prose.

  • #198280

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    The month of March approaches when things are most likely to come to a head. [/QUOTE]

    “Beware the Ides of March!”

  • #198290

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    A panel of five “experts” discuss which country will be the “breakout star” in 2012.¬† Four state (unconvincingly) the US will be the stellar performer; just one states (quite enthusiastically) that Brasil will be the star.
    [/QUOTE]
    I am one of the ignorant people this woman refers to in this interview.
    What are the possible ulterior motives that this woman has?

  • #198293

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=expt2233]
    I am one of the ignorant people this woman refers to in this interview.

    What are the possible ulterior motives that this woman has?

    [/QUOTE]

    The lady works for a US company whose prime focus is on US fixed-income securities; she’s selling US government bonds that are, incidentally, destined to show a negative return, hence the hype on the US economy. A Bernanke cheerleader.

  • #198297

    Gianni
    Member

    well said espirt!

  • #198306

    Gilmour
    Member

    GD, they can come out with any sort of “crisis” story they want to, especially in Europe. This has a tendency to drag down most currencies (exception: USD, CHF, JPY) and equity markets. Almost all the currencies are manipulated to a large degree, especially with central bank “interventions” and pegs (ex. Swiss Franc and the Euro).
    Personally, as someone who lives in Brazil, I hate the dollar. It only outperforms other currencies during bad times, or when there is a lot of uncertainty. I also suck at making long-term predictions, so I don’t. I probably WILL, in the future, use very little money (leveraged of course) to ride some waves.
    I’ll be very happy when most of my money is OUT of America and it is my CHOICE of currency I want to use. And I make a ton of money in Brazil that goes into other investments in Brazil.

  • #202556

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    …I’ll be very happy when most of my money is OUT of America and it is my CHOICE of currency I want to use. And I make a ton of money in Brazil that goes into other investments in Brazil.

    [/QUOTE]

    Well your dollars have gained 3.5% during the last month – not bad!

  • #202565

    Gianni
    Member

    Forex is a scam, also leveraging is a dangerous casino parity, these two together just equal bad news. If given reason to build up your wealth, and if, somehow you make enough to later invest in longevity. In that case an excuse might serve as a worthy mention at the dinner table. Otherwise finding pennies on the street might be of relative interest to any forex players….

  • #202578

    Gilmour
    Member

    GringoDude, you don’t know very much about FOREX, do you? The customer usually specifies the leverage and you can make it as low your as you want to. The leverage, if used correctly, can give you access to A LOT of money without having to risk very much of your money.
    Go back through your PMs. I sent you a link with my performance with real screenshots of everything. I’ve only done 1-2 deals last month because of the holidays, but you can see them there.
    But it’s good though that people lose. There has to be losers for people like me to take their money! Actually, people got to get it through their heads, stocks, bonds, real estate, – everything carries risk. Even walking in the street here has a lot of risk.

  • #202579

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Just to illustrate Bob’s point, there’s no way to completely protect your money, e.g. Buy yourself one of those practically indestructible black box flight recorders and remove the internal paraphernalia. Place your money inside and reseal the box. Now bury it under two meters of concrete inside a nuclear bomb shelter. Guard said shelter with a battalion of abandoned menopausal mother-in-laws brandishing AK47s, each having a pit bull with attitude made more savage by having elastic bands wrapped around their testicles [an idea thought up my said abandoned menopausal women].

    Return the following year, recover your money and find that it is worth less. The sneak thief? Inflation. During this past year, Brazilian inflation stole 7% of cash wealth.

  • #202584

    Gianni
    Member

    Risk…? After casino’s and betting on sports, comes forex which yields much riskier terms than ‘stocks, bonds or RE’… Let’s see how ‘in contango’ you can get with forex when you’re trying to go futures on those ‘pips’ …

  • #202585

    graham
    Participant

    obviously schizophrenic points. when money can be and is legally made, who argues?Grads2012-03-08 09:32:22

  • #202586

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=Grads] obviously schizophrenic points. when money can be and is legally made, who argues?[/QUOTE]
    And the gallery has any methodical advise? What fundamental or tech analysis can you offer for a perceptional point that might serve interest? Probably nothing…
    The volatility of the currency market is on the extreme end, which suggests irrational trends for ‘players’. There is no such thing as a safety net unless you rely on some backdoor fibonacci method. The average margin account is probably under $50, lol! And the momentum you see in any given direction is again, at best an so-so, which will leave you scalping.
    So I say “Why work hard for your money”? Again, unless you’re ‘building wealth’, I do not and never will subscribe to the forex brand…

  • #202587

    graham
    Participant

    …now, Esprit, “___.”

  • #202588

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Grads]obviously schizophrenic points. when money can be and is legally made, who argues?[/QUOTE]

    Aah, the subtly of moral hazard versus legality; the reason why we are in global economic meltdown.

  • #202589

    graham
    Participant

    thank you

  • #202668

    adorasmith
    Member

    Brazilmay boost debt buybacks totame real

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/08/brazil-economy-debt-idUSL2E8E82MK20120308

    “President Rousseff saidleading nations are flooding global markets with cheap money to artificiallydepreciate their currencies and assist their own exporters, to the detriment ofBrazilian manufacturers.”

    Será? The USgov‚Äôt would never produce cheapcurrency, bail out broken banks and then flood the world economy with devalueddollars to help US manufacturers. Thisis just another conspiracy theory!

  • #202671

    graham
    Participant

    the affairs of nations are rarely fair internationally.Grads2012-03-09 05:09:54

  • #202688

    [QUOTE=Catarinense]

    The USgov’t would never produce cheapcurrency, bail out broken banks and then flood the world economy with devalueddollars to help US manufacturers. Thisis just another conspiracy theory!

    [/QUOTE]
    You forgot to insert the tongue-in-cheek sarcastic emoticon after that statement. Wink

  • #202701

    Gilmour
    Member

    You guys are too funny! I HAD always lost my shirt with the stock market. Companies come and go. A company can go bankrupt. I national government rarely goes bankrupt (to ZERO). To buy a mini lot of the EURUSD, you need approximately $33. There is nowhere in the stock market you can RISK just $33 and make hundreds of profit. With mini lots, 1 pip = $1.
    I woke up this morning to check a trade, and I called my wife in to see it. I told her “You have to learn how to do this.. It’s GOING TO hit the red line (profit target).” 15 minutes later, it hit the red line. It’s almost freaky that the chart tells you the future…
    FYI – the Dollar is going back up. There may be some bouts where the the BRLUSD goes up during the day, but for the next month or so, the general trend is down.

  • #202703

    Gilmour
    Member

    BTW GringoDude, I had to change my trading strategy considerably since I started blogging results. (The site I sent to you.) I have to keep my EYES on my wife’s businesses, so I don’t have time to sit in front of the computer for 4 hours straight. Now I will hold a position for a day or two, or week. I don’t really care as long as it makes money.
    Hopefully when we get into the winter here, I can wake up VERY EARLY when the family is asleep and trade for a few hours before the businesses open up. The money for that is muuuch better.
    GD, but don’t think FOREX is like gambling. I lose everytime I go to the casino. I suck at Texas Holdem online. The charts give you plenty of clues to follow. If you know these clues well enough, you CAN make a profit consistently.

  • #202723

    Gilmour
    Member

    Scrutinizing data? Nope.. I just look at the charts. I post my real gains to a blog. There’s nothing impressive right now because I don’t have time. Whooptee doo.. I made $200 today. But when I can get back to sitting in front of the computer, I can make much more than that. That’s what I get for managing businesses in Brazil- I have to babysit businesses and make less money!
    I can’t really complain. These small gains in the last couple of weeks has already paid for my moto escola classes.

  • #202724

    Gilmour
    Member

    So cool.. see what I wrote? A few hours later, the EURO tanks.
    FYI – the Dollar is going back up. There may be some bouts where the the BRLUSD goes up during the day, but for the next month or so, the general trend is down.
    I’m going to wait a week or so to make purchases with my dollar accounts. Remember, prices (quotes) always fall faster than they rise.

  • #202731

    Gianni
    Member

    Companies come and go, they upgrade, they expand, and all sorts of movement.
    LOL Really?

  • #202750

    jeb2886
    Member

    Companies come and go, but they do so in a decently controlled manner, and if you do some research, you’ll be able to pick the ones that stick around for a long time.
    Energy companies are good.
    Food companies are good.
    Dividend companies are good.
    High flying tech companies are bad. (Apple is great, but how many others died off?)
    Companies that require trend setting are bad.
    That being said, you’re buying a $150,000 instrument for $33. While a currency might not disappear, with that kind of leverage, a small blip could make it disappear.
    If you buy a position in the forex and let it sit for 3 years, you’re going to be in trouble.
    If you buy a stock and let it sit for 3 years, you’re going to possibly be in trouble.
    Either way, you need to look over your investments.
    You’re looking for a get rich quick scheme, and probably invested in the most volatile stock companies you could find to make 600000000000% a year and found out they went belly up or severely tanked on you.

  • #203045

    The good news (as also posted in another thread) the gov’t is taking steps to keep the Real from getting stronger.
    The bad news, no more double interest rate figures on simple CD earnings. Cry
    I know friends and family back in the US will hardly shed a tear….
    Brasil extends tax on foreign debt to curb currency

  • #203046

    Gianni
    Member

  • #203076

    Gilmour
    Member

    jkennedy: actually, I did the math yesterday – with $33, I can control $10,000 with 400:1 leverage. In a US 50:1 account, you need $250. If you add up the LACK OF leverage, commissions and spreads for trading stocks, I hardly think it’s worth it.
    Gringo.Floripa – interesting link.
    GringoDude – How many times have people bought a stock and watched it go down by 80% and then eventually go bankrupt? That doesn’t happen with currencies, unless the US is willing to give it a try. The frustrating part about currencies is government manipulation.

  • #203092

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    I’m afraid that both currencies and stocks are a corrupt crap-shoot these days. I say corrupt because of the governmental manipulative forces already mentioned. The stock market, already a casino-like electronic and rapid trading farce, has effectively rid itself of the long-term private investor since the computer and decimalization of prices that were, hitherto, variable in increments of either an eighth or sixteenth of a unit of currency.

    Computer programs now chase penny gains that are further complicated by multiple market-makers. Such a system sees the market behaving like a shoal of fish being hunted by a predator; waves of irrational movements that follow an imagined leader. And as with a hunted shoal of fish, there are a lot of casualties. The balance of investors seeks sanctuary in first-world government bond markets knowing that they will make negative returns in preference to the fear of losing all; when in reality such investment in the Dollar and the Pound give false value to those currencies. Anyone investing in Euro bonds should be skilled in land-mine detection.

    Further, it can be observed that when a government engages in quantitative easing; a bullsh*t word, the market see rapid gains; a counter intuitive reaction to the debasement of the currency. The stock and currency exchange markets behave as if controlled by a five year-old with a joystick and just as unpredictable given the illogical movements. There is however logic in all of this if one analyses outcome; the “professionals” make money through discrete insider trading and the commissions paid by the fish. Currency traders have a non-productive contribution to make in their Ping-Pong guessing game that is predicated on either winning or losing. The world has lost its way.

  • #203093

    graham
    Participant

    well put.
    except that “The world has” not “lost its way,” it simply continues in a new way…but oh, the pathos.
    i enjoy your posts.Grads2012-03-13 10:50:52

  • #203095

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Grads]well put.
    except that “The world has” not “lost its way,” it simply continues in a new way…but oh, the pathos.
    i enjoy your posts.[/QUOTE]

    The subtle difference in this became vivid in the minds of the pilots of flight 19 during their last five minutes: “Skipper, we’re going the wrong way!” LOL

  • #203099

    Gilmour
    Member

    Stocks.. it’s like I was telling someone yesterday:
    You buy 1,000 shares because the company appears to be the best thing since sliced bread. Then a month later, they admit to having misstated earnings and the price tanks. To me, there are just too many variables with stocks.. and too much corruption that goes unpunished.
    With currencies, probably the best thing that has helped me is taking absolutely no side, and only going off what is on the charts and the “usual” behavior. And expert can say that it’s going down, but if my charts shows upside, I’ll buy in. I don’t listen to “experts”.
    For the record, I got a LONG position right now. GBPUSD filled at 1.56932 with a profit target of 1.57317. This isn’ta recommendation to trade– just numbers that you can follow, if you want to.

  • #203100

    Gilmour
    Member

    20 pips on that trade. I got out early, but IT’LL hit that take profit I put on there, eventually.

  • #203104

    Gianni
    Member

    ………….
    Long-term forex? Man, no no no…

  • #203122

    graham
    Participant

    hmmm, when you say it this way, it sounds like big johnson prophylactic with large reservior tip – but you need something smaller.Grads2012-03-13 15:36:44

  • #203128

    Gilmour
    Member

    It HITthe profit target (just like I said), but didn’t go more than 10 pips more before price reversed again and went back down the profit target.
    Stocks are not for me.

  • #203155

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]It HITthe profit target (just like I said), but didn’t go more than 10 pips more before price reversed again and went back down the profit target.

    Stocks are not for me.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, but do you actually know and can explain why this happened without referring to so-called trend charts?

  • #203159

    Gianni
    Member

    It’s called ‘guessing’ the trend, a lot of speculative calls, mostly on media and economic trends. Though for the newbie it is affirmative that you’re enjoying the flashing lights, free beer/coffee, and freshly pumped oxygen to be the reasoning of your playing.

  • #203164

    Gilmour
    Member

    I’m not going to go into so much detail, but I can post a list of transactions for today if anyone wants to see it. The first transaction, I bought a .01 mini lot. I ZOOMED OUT and said.. uh oh… and closed the transaction and took a loss of $8. I immediately bought back in with a full lot and made 20 pips.
    I talk about this all the time on some free and some sites that charge, but all of the answers are there in front of your eyes every day. You just have to train your eyes to see them in the charts. My only fear is that something happens to me, and I can’t train my kids to do this.

  • #203166

    Gilmour
    Member

    @Gringodude.. you are very wrong. I can care LESS what is going on in the news. In fact, I haven’t seen the news in months. The only things I care about are the individual candles and various formations. Hmm.. I’ve been doing this since 05/2011. It will be 1 year very soon. I keep getting better and better every day.
    Someone could say, “I’ll give you 50k British Pounds to show me” – I’ll tell them to take a hike. I will never program this stuff, nor sell it, ever.

  • #203169

    Gianni
    Member

    Trend charting the instantaneous pips is not economic, you’re trying to masquerade the idea of ‘structured guessing’. All real influences and factors have to do with a greater good, mostly macro, import/export, GDP etc..
    Trying to evaluate a bouncing ball, at a constant rate, in a rectangle is not absolute! Otherwise, you’d be selling your or crass version of tips and tricks…. LOL

  • #204092

    An almost 7% increase in the USD against the Real in one month (23/02 = 1.70 22/03 = 1.81)!
    Would it be premature to say “Gentlemen (and ladies), start your engines….”? Wink
    Perhaps to be of interest: Is Brasil Faking the Currency War?
    Gringo.Floripa2012-03-23 09:00:50

  • #204119

    [QUOTE=frank4000]Yes Gringo it would be very premature[/QUOTE]
    Well, I’m looking for my keys anyway…. Wink
    I’m also going to ‘visualize’ your 2.50! Thumbs%20Up

  • #204120

    jeb2886
    Member

    Brazil has too much to lose by going to 2.50, I dont think it’ll be on their terms or a slow path. People are probably pulling money back to the US for the stock market.

  • #204136

    Nil
    Member

    Even though I predicted at the begining of year that Reals will at 2.20 level (usd) by the end of this year. But by reading various articles related to this subject, my feeling right now is that it would not be able to break 2.00 this year.

  • #204287

    Gilmour
    Member

    never say never…. even though I’m not trying to get your hopes up. I really expected that last “leg” down would have dented the Real even more, but I think the highest it got to was 1,90 to the dollar for 1 day!
    that’s the crazy thing with markets: it’s not too difficult to see when the market is going to change direction, or when we have a strong chance of hitting some turbulence. But how PROFOUND the change is.. only the super connected people really know.

  • #204289

    jeb2886
    Member

    Conspiracies aside, even if the super wealthy and well connected could get the direction right, they can’t do anything with the information. They need massive long term trends to do anything.
    The sheer sizes of the wealth involved make it impossible for them to move their money in and out quickly. In fact, most technical analysis is about noticing what these people are doing and jumping in front of them. They’re moving 1% a day through hundreds of trades ever day for 2 months building up a position, while you can move 100% of your assets in one trade.

  • #204291

    Gilmour
    Member

    jkennedy – I think it depends on the outlook of the investor and their goals, really. To say that all rich people build large positions like mutual fund managers is not completely true. Some do, some don’t.
    There are some people/institutions that try arbitrage (which is too scary for me, and what I’ve seen 2 MAJOR cases of worldwide blowups over this.. UBS being the most recent). There are some big guys who scalp just a few points several times a day. Well, it’s not really them, rather computers doing the work.
    That’s the real beauty of the markets: everyone has a different opinion, and there are so many different ways to cut the pie – horitzontally, vertically, criss-cross.. there are so many combinations.
    Liquidity is also another factor – hence the reason why they need to scale in or out. I bet you already know which market is the most liquid market in the world! I won’t go near a stock or share, even if Espirit is buying them for me.

  • #204294

    jeb2886
    Member

    No, big money takes months to build a position. They have so much money, that to buy in requires a huge amount of time.
    The only sure fire way to go belly up is to over extend yourself with extremely high leverage. Arbing in itself isn’t bad, but needs to be done properly. However, extremely high lever aging with it can lead to a huge blow up.
    If you’ve got billions, you need time to move in/out of every position. A position of that size simply doesn’t have the daily volume necessary to buy in or out of. If your trades start skewing the numbers, then you’re going to lose out. Hence why it’s a slow buy in or sell off.

  • #204297

    Gianni
    Member

    [quote]The only sure fire way to go belly up is to over extend yourself with extremely high leverage.[/quote]
    Exactly, what a dangerous game to advance your relatively small liquid position (SB), and gambleat such aweful stakes in the forex market. You leverage high volume risk, no matter how confident you might assure yourself of being, it’s still much ‘riskier’. Once you position yourself, luck be on your side, get out of and find a holding where you can secure and work with proportinate amounts. It makes no sense to hang your plate from your window hoping to catch a meal lol… Someone might steal your plate and you’re left with the shirt on your back and no dishes to wash! LOL

  • #204307

    adorasmith
    Member

    So with the DXY down today, is it just a matter of time before the USD slides back under R$1.80? What say ye?

  • #204327

    Gilmour
    Member

    Jeeeesss√∫s Cristo GringoDude, I gave you the flaming website address to show you all of the trades I’ve made. For March, I had 1 loss of $-33and the rest is pure profit. Just because you don’t want to sit still and listen for 10 minutes is your problem. I got 30+ profitable trades for the month and 1 loser, as stated above. I already beat the majority of personal losers and fund managers out there. Most of the big IBs are happy to get 10% per annum, but to me, this is more of a monthly or weekly figure.
    By the way, I’ve been a BIG boy for over a year now. I manage 400:1 leverage every single day. What MARGIN I actually use are my secret.
    Don’t knock it because youare no good at it.
    Grrr.. add Canada to the list of countries that I don’t like Angry
    spongebob2012-03-26 21:11:13

  • #204328

    jeb2886
    Member

    Forex is knocked because people understand statistics and how margin calls work.
    It’s like saying you know how to drive at 180km/h on the highways in Brazil without getting caught because you have a system. Your system relies on never missing a speed trap. That isn’t a system, that’s just you thinking you’re safe because you haven’t been caught.
    Margin is a sure way to go bankrupt in any investing strategy. It might not get you today, tomorrow or next year, but every margined system eventually gets hit.

  • #204358

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Forex is knocked because people understand statistics and how margin calls work.
    It’s like saying you know how to drive at 180km/h on the highways in Brazil without getting caught because you have a system. Your system relies on never missing a speed trap. That isn’t a system, that’s just you thinking you’re safe because you haven’t been caught.
    Margin is a sure way to go bankrupt in any investing strategy. It might not get you today, tomorrow or next year, but every margined system eventually gets hit.
    [/QUOTE]
    This is where you guys seem to be wearing horse blinders, both you and gringodude — meant with respect though; I’m not trying to flame you guys.
    Let’s try to clear up some misconceptions:
    1) Leverage – it all depends on how you use it. If you have a very high rate of success, then high leverage means little money to make money. For example, you can use margin of $160 to generate $200 fairly easy with 400:1 leverage. The temptation is always to say to yourself “Ha! This is easy, why don’t I use more money.” Then they are wrong and instead of taking a small loss, they let the loss run. This is also common with stock trading.
    The rule is to always play as conservatively as possible. Just because you put 10k in an account doesn’t mean that you are actually trading with 10k leveraged. That’s kind of crazy IMHO. People who cannot control themselves need to stay in the buteco.
    2) Leverage2 – Let’s say we have an alcoholic drugged-up gambler. To be safe, he should tell his broker that he only wants 10:1 or less leverage. Yep, all brokers I know of will let you choose your own leverage.
    3) Success Rate– Seems like you guys just don’t get it. People who have experience and are good make buckets of money with this stuff. These are real return percentages that are computer generated. A trader makes a trade and the trades are handled automatically by the software (NEVER trust excel spreadsheets!!!!). Here are just a few – there are many more “tracking services” on the internet:
    http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php
    http://openbook.etoro.com/
    http://www.zulutrader.com/Performance.aspx
    You guys are welcome to keep believing in the common stuff the media says. At least for me, I only know of a small handful of people who ever got rich with stocks. I won’t touch anything that invests in a “business”. They come and go too quickly.

  • #204371

    jeb2886
    Member

    Statistically, leverage will bankrupt you over time.
    You’re potential to lose big and very fast over very small moves, is what will do it. You’re the one with blinders. “See leverage makes me money FAST!!!!!!!” “Oh no, I can’t lose it all fast… it’s leverage…. you see it makes money FAST!!!!!!!!!!!”

  • #204378

    Gianni
    Member

    No matter where you apply your leverage it will scorn you in the end. The market is like a switchboard, every option has potential to hang up and you lose. I am all for 400:1 if you’re on a sure thing, but playing it daily, is not hedging your bet. Yes, businesses come and go, but after a while you can sustain a company to forecast longevity. For example my fathers company is on the tsx, it paid out during the recession, and I’m pretty sure it will be around for quite some time.

    My point is that you can play high stakes to make a quick buck, but if you’re going to try and and dry out the well, more often than not you’re in for a surprise. Get in, get out, and move your nest to something that offers security and you can skim from it and be comfortable.

    You’ll never manage to play the leverage of what you claim and make it last forever. That’s exactly why the forex market hosts more losers than stocks; cheap entry, 24 hours, plenty of flashing lights, almost like a casino, no? haha

  • #204384

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000] [QUOTE=Gringodude]

    No matter where you apply your leverage it will scorn you in the end. The market is like a switchboard, every option has potential to hang up and you lose. I am all for 400:1 if you’re on a sure thing, but playing it daily, is not hedging your bet. Yes, businesses come and go, but after a while you can sustain a company to forecast longevity. For example my fathers company is on the tsx, it paid out during the recession, and I’m pretty sure it will be around for quite some time.

    My point is that you can play high stakes to make a quick buck, but if you’re going to try and and dry out the well, more often than not you’re in for a surprise. Get in, get out, and move your nest to something that offers security and you can skim from it and be comfortable. You’ll never manage to play the leverage of what you claim and make it last forever. That’s exactly why the forex market hosts more losers than stocks; cheap entry, 24 hours, plenty of flashing lights, almost like a casino, no? haha [/QUOTE]

    I rather play the real estate game[/QUOTE] Real-Estate has no insurance against risk either, you still have a world of headache to endure. I’m trying to sell apartments still and for some reason, people are willing to inquire and look around, but no composed offer of value. The rental stream is fine, but people are looking to renovate needlessly, rather than keep present tentants. None the less I think it’s time to vacate the housing game, keep liquid until some prospective developments come into the light.

  • #204385

    jeb2886
    Member

    Housing has historically been the best way to hedge against inflation. Unless you’re lucky and grab a place that becomes highly desirable, in which case it will follow the inflation of the area it’s in. Buying during dismal times and selling during the peaks has worked well for many!
    It’s not a great way to increase wealth beyond inflation trends, but it’s definitely far more forgiving to the general investor!

  • #204390

    Gianni
    Member

    I’m pretty sure housing is inflated, last time I checked, yup, definitely! ……

  • #204408

    Gilmour
    Member

    Do you honestly believe that a broker is going LOSE money if you use leverage? Never. Nor will you go bankrupt. If you don’t have a decent profitable strategy, then your account CAN and probably WILL go to zero. But that’s the same for anything: shares, futures, options, etc..
    How many real estate “investors” lost their shirts in 2008-2009?
    Nuff said. Too bad you guys don’t live close to me. You could come over and I could show you live. I think that’s the only way that you’re going to believe me.

  • #204410

    jeb2886
    Member

    We could play russian roulette, I’ll show you a strategy for never losing, you use a gun with 1 buttet BUT the key is to use a gun with 1000 empty slots in it! You’ll never lose! You can watch it and play with it too!
    With a 100:1 leverage, the currency only has to move a small amount for you to lose everything, and your losses are limited to your account either. Say Dilema dies, you’ll see the currency swing way down faster than you could react. Possibly faster than your exchange and flip you out of a trade. You’ll be fully responsible for all the losses. 10 minutes later, it’ll be a hoax and it’ll rebound, but you’re bankrupt.
    You might THINK your account will allow you out because it’s so liquid, but that isn’t necessarily true, especially on a huge run when trades are piling up like mad.

  • #204418

    Gianni
    Member

    I’m not coming over…
    Using leverage is for the broke…

  • #204425

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]We could play russian roulette, I’ll show you a strategy for never losing, you use a gun with 1 buttet BUT the key is to use a gun with 1000 empty slots in it! You’ll never lose! You can watch it and play with it too!
    With a 100:1 leverage, the currency only has to move a small amount for you to lose everything, and your losses are limited to your account either. Say Dilema dies, you’ll see the currency swing way down faster than you could react. Possibly faster than your exchange and flip you out of a trade. You’ll be fully responsible for all the losses. 10 minutes later, it’ll be a hoax and it’ll rebound, but you’re bankrupt.
    You might THINK your account will allow you out because it’s so liquid, but that isn’t necessarily true, especially on a huge run when trades are piling up like mad.
    [/QUOTE]
    Sometimes I think you two are Kurtz and Expart2233!
    Lemme give you an example using 400:1 leverage.
    Scenario:
    – You have an account with a balance of $5,000
    – One mini lot is roughly $30 in leverage for the EURUSD
    How much available “space” do you have for price to move?
    If you guessed $4,970 = $5,000 – $30, you are CORRECT !!!
    With a mini lot, 1 pip = $1
    100 pips = equates to a 1% move. Usually daily price changes are quoted in percent.
    So how many percent can price swing before you get a margin call?
    If you guessed around 49%, you are CORRECT !!!
    In reality, the broker would most likely close the position automatically when you are sitting on an 80% loss of capital.
    I don’t know about you, but 49% is a huge move. If you are sitting on a loser until 40%, you have to be crazy.
    —————————————-
    Peoples’ concept of risk fascinates me. People who think this is too risky go and open a business that fails after 6 months! LOL
    So.. risk is relative. Just because you don’t really understand it, you can’t equate it to russian roulette or blackjack. If it really were a game of chance, there wouldn’t be people like Peter Lynch.
    BTW – some mutual funds in America use leverage. Did you know? Some are very open about it because the leverage is considered an extra expense. Believe it or not…

  • #204438

    adorasmith
    Member

    GringoD & SpongeB: you guys need to get a room or your own thread… and not highjack this thread anymore than it already is. Big%20smileLOL

    I keep coming back hoping to glean some exchange rate wisdom from the forum gurus of gringo-landia, but all I get is forex lixo. Dead
  • #204444

    Gilmour
    Member

    I have a sinking suspicion that GD is not Canadian, but rather Kurtz & expat2233.

  • #204447

    Gianni
    Member

    You’re talking smack about me being one of those douche bags? Are you serious? Don’t be a jackass because you’re mad neither of us supports your leverage crusade. I already told you, I rock option house. Would you prefer we discuss the nonsensical terms in tech analysis? So I can showyou it’s just a casino joy ride?

  • #204489

    Gilmour
    Member

    Gringodude:
    As stated somewhere else, you can always go 1:1 if you so choose to. This is what the big banks do, like HSBC, Deutche Bank, etc..
    Maybe it would be more helpful to everyone – since this is a public message board – if you researched the topic thoroughly FIRST, instead of spewing half/incorrect information.

  • #204517

    jeb2886
    Member

    A 400:1 leverage on $30 means if you invest $30 and it drops 1%, you’ll lose 400:1 more than that. So a 1% drop equates to $12000 loss

  • #204808

    Gianni
    Member

    Anyone see last summer (american summer) we reached 1.59 and it’s now at 1.84. I am anticipating my fathers interest if we reach the 2.00 mark, but every other week there seems to be a combating force to decrease inflation. Yet, if we see a hire value, a bang for our buck, I wonder what scam they’ll pull to mask it back down to 1.50 and lock everyone in!? Stern%20Smile

  • #206417

    Gilmour
    Member

    Gringodude, jkennedy – call chart trading anything you want to. It’s been my primary source of income since the end of last year. The same concepts can be applied to anything – stocks, futures, forex, population statistics — basically anything you can put on a chart.
    That said, I focus on really short-term trades. The USDBRL situation is a tough call because you we’re talking about long-termtrends. It seems like Dilma is trying to weaken the Real, but everyone else around the world is trying to weaken their currencies too.

  • #209022

    Is the stew pot of insolvent European nations about to reach a boiling point?

    Traditionally, May is a month when investors launch a sell-off in the US markets….
    Shall we see a 2.25 rate (BRL:USD) sometime soon??? Wink

    Brazil Stocks Fall after Spain Offsets More Positive Local Data

  • #209025

    Gianni
    Member

    Yeehoo!
    Short the bovespa, bring in liquid funds and ride the bull back up! How can it get any better? I dare ask!

  • #209045

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Is the stew pot of insolvent European nations about to reach a boiling point?

    Traditionally, May is a month when investors launch a sell-off in the US markets….
    Shall we see a 2.25 rate (BRL:USD) sometime soon??? Wink

    Brazil Stocks Fall after Spain Offsets More Positive Local Data

    [/QUOTE]
    I was really surprised about the interest rate cut decision here. On top of that, hearing that used cars ARE NOT selling. I wonder if things really are starting to slow down in Brazil after this long ride since 2003…???

  • #209046

    Gilmour
    Member

    GF – nothing has really changed in Europe since the very beginning. But the US is not that different in terms of solvency. Take Germany out of the Euro, and there would be no Euro.
    GD – how do you know the equity markets will spring right back like we saw in 2008 and 2010? If you buy low, you can catch a falling knife.

  • #209048

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    I was really surprised about the interest rate cut decision here. On top of that, hearing that used cars ARE NOT selling. I wonder if things really are starting to slow down in Brazil after this long ride since 2003…??
    [/QUOTE]

    The interest rate cut maybe a way to encourage private home ownership and get them out of the favelas or discourage them from going that way. But i am just guessing, i know that Brazil is also ultra cautious in these matters. I know that there is alot of new housing being built around the towns in the region that i live, this maybe a way of encouraging private ownership and getting people out to work rather than relying on the state aswell. But i am guessing it just appears to be whats happening.
    Used cars not selling? thats a good one, i think because there are so many good deals on new cars and the finance is so much easier to get aswell at the car dealerships.
    I think based on basic economical principles the prices of cars is likely to go down in the furture, they have managed to remain at such a high level that houses are almost the same price as cars which is ridiculous and people have been using cars as a form of currency to barter with.
    Now the banks are opening up on lending it has moved all the goalposts, so to speak.
    I think the danger in the future is that people will have alot of borrowing and there will be a bubble as people appear to be financing themselves upto the hilt. I know afew people who owe alot of money and are finding it difficult to make the repayments.
    Dollar – Real, let me take a look at it…Had a look..
    The Dollar has to hold its position around the 0.50 level if it drops below that it could go lower, if it holds and supports it could go higher, but its trending lower against the Real. Its actually in a channel between 0.65 and 0.40..if it breaks either of those you’ll have a good idea which way it may head medium term. At the moment it has to hold at 0.50, if not it could go to around 0.40, if it doesnt hold. It may well hold though and move up towards the 0.65 channel resistance level.
    Hope this helps.

    Amsterdam2012-04-30 17:26:56

  • #209050

    jeb2886
    Member

    I wouldn’t be too surprised if used cars weren’t selling. Cars were used as a currency almost with little to no depreciation. With the flood of new cars, people probably expect no depreciation when they go to sell. A huge number of new cars and owners can’t be helping this situation.

  • #209052

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]I wouldn’t be too surprised if used cars weren’t selling. Cars were used as a currency almost with little to no depreciation. With the flood of new cars, people probably expect no depreciation when they go to sell. A huge number of new cars and owners can’t be helping this situation.
    [/QUOTE]

    Thats true good point.
    But many more used cars and no finance, lots of fancy new cars in the dealerships and easy finance.
    I like to buy used cars, the Brazilians are different, but the used car dealerships that i have spoken with are A1 useless at discussing finance. I dont finance anything if i can but i always like to ask about any deals just in case. So they obviously arent going to be good at helping any other customers, they have had it good for too long it would appear and now things are changing.
    I also looked at a new car, high price and expensive car finance, the salesman, a very nice and helpful guy, was begging me to sign the agreement, but i walked away, thanking him for his time. I dont like buying new cars.
    Thinking about it i have noticed afew used car places closing down and i know afew who survive by buying beat up older cars and refurbishing them.

    Amsterdam2012-04-30 17:14:32

  • #209056

    [QUOTE=spongebob]GF – nothing has really changed in Europe since the very beginning. But the US is not that different in terms of solvency. [/QUOTE]
    That might be true Bob (then again it might not be). We know the market is not driven by what is true, but rather by what is ‘perceived’. Spain ‘officially’ entered a recession today. That simple headline creates a lot of perception among investors, and it’s not calming news.
    Frankly, I think the situation is far worse than the Euro leaders are allowing to be publicized. And certainly it would not be a surprise to anyone if Tio Sam is weighing in on what is served to the media, and what not. With election for POTUS just over 6mos away, we can’t be having any major Euro banks and/or brokerage firms becoming insolvent now, can we?!?
    Should such an ‘unthinkable’ (yet certainly plausible and possible) thing happen on the Euro continent, it will be a major b**ch-slap to the US economy, regardless of any gains since 2008. The leaders of these economies can pull the strings of the puppet as they please, but sometimes, the string is frayed, and the puppet falls flat on it’s face, regardless of the skill of the puppeteer….
    Gringo.Floripa2012-04-30 18:15:20

  • #209057

    jeb2886
    Member

    The market is already doing pretty well 13,200, probably can’t expect too much more. Maybe 13500-13700 this year.
    News stations send us news that we want. That is what it comes down to. Too many of us crave crap like this, because it’s more entertaining than having to read the real numbers.
    The thing is, too many people STILL think money, debt and policies are just set in stone. They aren’t, they’re rules to play by, if the rules are going to lead to certain doom and possible death, the countries will change those rules, regardless of what others say, regardless of what happens to those in the country. They aren’t going to sell every piece of food their country produces to make a debt payment. They’re going to say “Well, we’re in a pickle, change the rules!”. Europe will do fine. The US will do fine.

  • #209072

    Gianni
    Member

    [quote]GD – how do you know the equity markets will spring right back like we saw in 2008 and 2010? If you buy low, you can catch a falling knife.[/quote]
    Almost exactly one year ago the Bo’ was down to 50k, it’s risen to 7… we should see a bounce back throughout the year. Especially considering the currency trending in the favour of the international players. If the currency rises, influx will follow..

  • #209079

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Amsterdam][QUOTE=jkennedy]I wouldn’t be too surprised if used cars weren’t selling. Cars were used as a currency almost with little to no depreciation. With the flood of new cars, people probably expect no depreciation when they go to sell. A huge number of new cars and owners can’t be helping this situation.
    [/QUOTE]

    Thats true good point.
    But many more used cars and no finance, lots of fancy new cars in the dealerships and easy finance.
    I like to buy used cars, the Brazilians are different, but the used car dealerships that i have spoken with are A1 useless at discussing finance. I dont finance anything if i can but i always like to ask about any deals just in case. So they obviously arent going to be good at helping any other customers, they have had it good for too long it would appear and now things are changing.
    I also looked at a new car, high price and expensive car finance, the salesman, a very nice and helpful guy, was begging me to sign the agreement, but i walked away, thanking him for his time. I dont like buying new cars.
    Thinking about it i have noticed afew used car places closing down and i know afew who survive by buying beat up older cars and refurbishing them.

    [/QUOTE]
    Good point on the used cars, financing, etc.. But I forgot who it was who posted here that there was a major JUMP in people who don’t pay their car payments. That stat is probably the most alarming….
    Maybe some of those houses going up are for the government programs, minha casa minha vida. I heard about another program that was recently launched. I don’t know the name of it yet… or maybe it is the same program. At least where I live, they are putting those housing projects on the outskirts of town. They are very small places to live, very cramped. Maybe it’s good for some, but for others, they will prefer to live in the favela.

  • #209088

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    News stations send us news that we want. That is what it comes down to. Too many of us crave crap like this, because it’s more entertaining than having to read the real numbers.
    Europe will do fine. The US will do fine.[/QUOTE]
    The Spanish gov’t, not the media, reported last Friday that the unemployment rate has reached almost 25% in the first quarter of 2012, and that among those unemployed, close to 50% under the age of 30, are without work (for those under 25, it’s slightly over 50%).
    Meaning… the actual figuresare probably much worse than what the official line is from Madrid.
    BTW… just five years ago, the overallunemployment rate was under 8%.
    What real numbersmight you have JK, to differ from these???
    So, half the youth in Spain have NO JOBS. Summer has yet to begin. “Idle hands are the devil’s workshop” (or so my great-granny used to say)….
    Oh… and let’s not forget to add to the petri dish, Spain’s major lenders have approx. 60% of their portfolios labeled as “problem loans”.
    The key word here is contagion: a corrupting or harmful influence that tends to spread. Greece, Italy, and Portugal are already ‘infected’. Now Spain. Who’s next… the UK, which was recently bumped down the economic ladder by Brasil?!? Quite possible and plausible.
    I’m not so sure I agree with the “You’re fine” prognosis. I recall a sign I saw once in a doctor’s office, which said: “The five most dangerous words in the English language: ‘Maybe it will go away’.”
    Europe will do fine. The US will do fine. Not to worry. Maybe it will go away…. Confused
    LINK: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9232293/Spain-in-huge-crisis-as-unemployment-hits-record-levels.html
    Gringo.Floripa2012-05-01 10:52:43

  • #209093

    Gilmour
    Member

    Holy vaca… 25%. 8% 5 years ago. That’s crazy! Maybe Spain is like Brazil where a good many people just don’twant to work.
    I think maybe what Frank is saying is that it’s not the end of the world (maybe) and that the sky is not falling (maybe). I said (maybe) because we all know what’s supposed to happen on Dec 2012.

  • #209096

    [QUOTE=spongebob]Maybe Spain is like Brazil where a good many people just don’twant to work.
    [/QUOTE]
    That doesn’t appear to be the case….

  • #209106

    jeb2886
    Member

    Spain is a small part of Europe. Larger than Greece. But when you start mashing out the numbers and flattening them out across all of europe, what kind of unemployement numbers show up? Not great, but not horrendous.
    Spain had major issues further back than 2008 for employment. As someone pointed out to me before, There is Spain and then there is Barcelona. They’re completely different lives and economy. It would be like comparing jobs in LA and TJ. Only a few hours separate them, but the lives are completely different.
    Essentially in Spain the older people, the more experienced and higher paid are working. Parents need to support their children for longer.

  • #209107

    [QUOTE=frank4000]
    I hoping this causes a price correction in the housing market in Brasil, but I think that this is only possible after 2016 olympics.[/QUOTE]
    Considering RE prices rose 175% in just the last two years in SP(for certain areas), I think a correction will arrive way before 2016. Rio, of course, is it’s own anomaly.

  • #209110

    jeb2886
    Member

    Housing usually booms before these events but peters out as they get closer and afterwards.
    Housing should follow inflation, and should correct back towards inflation levels (inflation in SP is likely higher than elsewhere in Brazil) but not 175% in two years.

  • #209112

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    Good point on the used cars, financing, etc.. But I forgot who it was who posted here that there was a major JUMP in people who don’t pay their car payments. That stat is probably the most alarming….
    Maybe some of those houses going up are for the government programs, minha casa minha vida. I heard about another program that was recently launched. I don’t know the name of it yet… or maybe it is the same program. At least where I live, they are putting those housing projects on the outskirts of town. They are very small places to live, very cramped. Maybe it’s good for some, but for others, they will prefer to live in the favela.
    [/QUOTE]

    Yes you are right very alarming with car finance but predictable in this environment i guess.
    Mina Casa Mina Vida yes correct, i dont know exactly how that works, maybe someone does.
    But if they are privately funded property then that maybe one of the reasons the banks are bringing down the rates considering they are controlled by the government. I dont know, maybe its a coincidence but i doubt it. I have heard that they are part private part rental these new developments.
    Yes the houses look very small and dont look like they will make it through the winter, they say they have 2 bedrooms which is surprising.
  • #209113

    jeb2886
    Member

    Well housing is generally set by jobs, but increases by inflation. Inflation within cities is usually higher than in the country side or smaller cities.
    Car financing is just so egregious that even losing a few (to many) deals, they’re going to come out way ahead regardless. It’s like selling an item for $5 that costs you 5 cents, you can lose a hell of a lot of product before you’re putting yourself into a losing position.

  • #209117

    jeb2886
    Member

    Brazil has some weird metrics, with changing banking standards, currencies that have changed out several times in the past, high inflation and high interest rates. It is definitely harder to make solid cases against buying/selling. Going from a cash buyer to a 30 year mortgage based system with lower interest rates can make huge changes in the values of homes. So Brazil has a mixed system, with new rules coming in, inflation and a dozen other factors.
    Still, at 175% over 2 years, the rates are just too high. The easiest way to figure out where housing costs should be is to look at a neighbourhood and see who lives there. Then take the average income for those people and pretend they are just starting off in life. So they have the minimum amount for a down payment, how much mortgage can they afford. If housing exceeds this, it’s over priced for that neighbourhood. People are paying too much for the homes, in hopes of capturing the 75% appreciation when they sell. Even if they’re going under water each year, that 75% puts them way ahead. Hold it for 4 years, and then sell! Presto, instant millionaires. However, this is a game of who is the most foolish, and is a pyramid scheme that must fall eventually.
    Personally, 175% is just out of control no matter what. The other metric I use is rent vs buying. Buying meaning pretending you’re an average buyer with a down payment and a regular mortgage. So if you can rent a place for $1000/month including everything you’re responsible for but the mortgage is $4000/month, clearly owning isn’t the way to go. Rent and save the $3000 in the bank instead. In fact, I don’t buy until those metric cross.
    Housing is cyclical, it goes up normally for a few years, then takes off like a rocket with lots of over building with builders playing who’s more foolish. Eventually there aren’t enough buyers, sellers start dropping prices trying to cash out, no buyers, and builders are in trouble, they need to liquidate, huge amounts of housing available and a few years of calm with great buying opportunities as demand re stabilizes itself (births increasing population, immigration and housing being destroyed and not rebuilt). Housing gets tight and we start the process over again.

  • #209120

    [QUOTE=frank4000]so what your saying is best to rent in Sao Paulo??? at Jkennedy and gringo.[/QUOTE]
    I think depends on the area and what you want/need as a ‘lifestyle’. With a 175% increase in certain parts of Sampa, it’s obvious you’d want to rent, if you desire to live in one of those areas.
    Yet the Exame article mentioned some parts of the city had a ‘modest’ 50% increase. Confused
    I’m a firm believer in that there’s always a bargain to be had, if looking to buy. You just need, most of all, plenty of time to look around. Second, some vision; what might seem to be a dump, could be a diamond in the rough. That vision entails not only the property itself, but also the area.
    From my limited forays in Sampa, most people seem to want a new posh building, with all the amenities (which you pay through the nose for with association fees). I’d prefer an older building, with say just a doorman, and pump what I’d spend in excessive association fees for amenities I might use once per month (if that), into refurbishing costs, resulting in something I’d use everyday.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-05-01 14:30:58

  • #209123

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000]so what your saying is best to rent in Sao Paulo??? at Jkennedy and gringo.[/QUOTE]

    When you pm’d me about my apartments in Rio, you mentioned your price range. If that is still the case you definitely might want to rent in Sp for a while, until you find a killer deal. It’s always going to be insanely expensive in SP, if you’re lucky; finding an apartment for the right price will present itself. All relativity regarding making a profit through property value inflation takes time in the big apple of south america.

    Try the N.E or POA…. I don’t know much about them but I am certain someone on here could recommend good buying opportunities in smaller cities…

  • #209124

    jeb2886
    Member

    I would still rent until prices correct themselves in some fashion.
    After a correction, do as GF says and look for the best deals. But I would be prepared now, learn the market, learn what is out there, what each area of the city holds and what you can do to make a diamond in the rough look great. Then wait and see what comes around. 50% modest increases are a clear sign of late stage bubbles. Although many things have changed, 50% increases aren’t warranted.
    Rent, put the rest of the money in the bank and collect interest off it.

  • #209127

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]I would still rent until prices correct themselves in some fashion.

    After a correction, do as GF says and look for the best deals. But I would be prepared now, learn the market, learn what is out there, what each area of the city holds and what you can do to make a diamond in the rough look great. Then wait and see what comes around. 50% modest increases are a clear sign of late stage bubbles. Although many things have changed, 50% increases aren’t warranted.

    Rent, put the rest of the money in the bank and collect interest off it.
    [/QUOTE] Again, prices are so influx right now that you’re only profit would stream from ‘rental income’. That noted, I would like to highlight Jkennedy’s suggestion PUT IT IN THE BANK.

  • #209240

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    Still, at 175% over 2 years, the rates are just too high. The easiest way to figure out where housing costs should be is to look at a neighbourhood and see who lives there. Then take the average income for those people and pretend they are just starting off in life. So they have the minimum amount for a down payment, how much mortgage can they afford. If housing exceeds this, it’s over priced for that neighbourhood. People are paying too much for the homes, in hopes of capturing the 75% appreciation when they sell. Even if they’re going under water each year, that 75% puts them way ahead. Hold it for 4 years, and then sell! Presto, instant millionaires. However, this is a game of who is the most foolish, and is a pyramid scheme that must fall eventually.
    Personally, 175% is just out of control no matter what. The other metric I use is rent vs buying. Buying meaning pretending you’re an average buyer with a down payment and a regular mortgage. So if you can rent a place for $1000/month including everything you’re responsible for but the mortgage is $4000/month, clearly owning isn’t the way to go. Rent and save the $3000 in the bank instead. In fact, I don’t buy until those metric cross.
    Housing is cyclical, it goes up normally for a few years, then takes off like a rocket with lots of over building with builders playing who’s more foolish. Eventually there aren’t enough buyers, sellers start dropping prices trying to cash out, no buyers, and builders are in trouble, they need to liquidate, huge amounts of housing available and a few years of calm with great buying opportunities as demand re stabilizes itself (births increasing population, immigration and housing being destroyed and not rebuilt). Housing gets tight and we start the process over again.
    [/QUOTE]
    jkennedy– never say it is “TOO” high or will go to +1,000% !! Markets are known for spiking up or down when nobody expects it.
    I tend to agree with gringo.floripa, if you can get lucky and get at a discount, then the risk is lower.
    I think the problem arises when João Ningu√©ns want to speculate with money that they cannot afford (what happened in the US). The one constant that I always rememeber for EVERYTHING is:
    When ordinary people start talking about something as a good investment, do the opposite! This theory also applies to jobs and business too.

  • #209536

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    When ordinary people start talking about something as a good investment, do the opposite! This theory also applies to jobs and business too.
    [/QUOTE]

    Thats a good one.
    Ordinary people or the man on the street.
    Also applies to the media, when the media start talking about it, get out fast, this usually means its in the bubble stage.
  • #209755

    Gilmour
    Member

    10:26 (Dow Jones) As Brazil continues to take measures to depreciate its currency, some market watchers believe the central bank also is telling traders when the currency has reached the “desired level”. “After [USD/BRL reached] 1.88, the intensity of the interventions have gone down significantly,” says Jose Yepez of Citi. “This is one way for the [central bank] to let [traders] know that they are there at the desired level.” The dollar is little changed today at BRL1.9269. “[Brazil] is very happy between 1.80 and 2,” and if the cross moves to the range’s edges, Yepez says the central bank would intervene to correct the currency’s course. (prabha.natarajan@dowjones.com)

    Call us at (212) 416-2354 or email kevin.kingsbury@dowjones.com

    
    

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    May 07, 2012 10:26 ET (14:26 GMT)

  • #209756

    Gilmour
    Member

    umm.. when we see these “fluctuations”, why is there always someone who tries to say that Brazil is comfortable with this number either up or down.
    it’s at 1.92 – I can’t believe it cause I don’t normally watch the BRL. But the other commodity currencies were getting blasted last night like the AUD.

  • #209761

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000]I think they let it fall gracefully to about 2.20 over the next year. Only time will tell.[/QUOTE] Read O Estadao de SP. Governo Dilma wants lower interest rates for a cheaper Real to help exports. 2.20 to 2.80 is reasonable, with 3 plus doable.

  • #209766

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] [QUOTE=frank4000]I think they let it fall gracefully to about 2.20 over the next year. Only time will tell.[/QUOTE]
    Read O Estadao de SP. Governo Dilma wants lower interest rates for a cheaper Real to help exports. 2.20 to 2.80 is reasonable, with 3 plus doable. [/QUOTE]

    Hmm. That would be nice. the time frame for something like that would need to be about maybe 3 years to grace-full. Any sudden drop would really affect property values on the local side of the market but it can cause everyone to want to buy property in Brasil. In my view it is a mixed bag. [/QUOTE] What the Real trades to the dollar has no effect on real estate prices in Brazil. Perhaps farm properties and the price of commodities to price a farm. For example at present 1.90 Miami is invaded with wealthy Brazilians snapping up condos often by the dozen. A solid indicator of an overvalued Real. Brazilians returning with huge stuffed suitcases another indicator. Hot money is getting burned that chased the high interest rates and inflation is heating up bigtime in Brazil. Commodity prices are falling with the China/Europe slowdown and the Real is going down as well. Few people want to buy property in Brazil at present level. In fact it is the locals in Brazil that drive 99.9% of sales… GreatBallsoFire2012-05-07 11:31:56

  • #209769

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] [QUOTE=frank4000]I think they let it fall gracefully to about 2.20 over the next year. Only time will tell.[/QUOTE]

    Read O Estadao de SP. Governo Dilma wants lower interest rates for a cheaper Real to help exports. 2.20 to 2.80 is reasonable, with 3 plus doable.

    [/QUOTE]
    Hmm. That would be nice. the time frame for something like that would need to be about maybe 3 years to grace-full. Any sudden drop would really affect property values on the local side of the market but it can cause everyone to want to buy property in Brasil. In my view it is a mixed bag. [/QUOTE]
    The Brazilian situation is very complex. It’s hard to look at it and say that lowering rates would influence housing prices too much because people still have to “qualify” for loans, something that was thrown out the window in pre-crash 2008 USA.
    On the other hand, Brazil MUST keep foreigners buying their debt so rates can still be lower, but they will look highcompared to anywhere else in the world. At least for the “time being”, I think Dilma is making a good move. But who knows if hyperinflation starts kicking in.
    Frank, I think I heard what GreatBalls is saying on TV a week or so ago.

  • #209770

    Cici
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000] I am speaking about the value of what can be purchased for 200K US. Alot of people are looking for places to invest their capital in hard assets.
    Could you give me the exact link for the comment Dilma made. I am see alot of other stories but not that one.[/QUOTE]
    Frank, If you use twitter subscribe to @Brazilintel, it has all such comments. I find it to be useful and about 80% of what they post is good reading.
    Also I sent money through last week at $R3.08 to £1 sterling, Hoping to see $R3.50 at minimum in the next 4/5 months.IrishNatal2012-05-07 12:05:01

  • #209773

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000]I am speaking about the value of what can be purchased for 200K US. Alot of people are looking for places to invest their capital in hard assets.

    Could you give me the exact link for the comment Dilma made. I am see alot of other stories but not that one.[/QUOTE] Right Frank. 10 years ago 200k got you a nice apartment in Rio. Now in Rio that gets you a crappy studio 1/5th the size in a crappy building. Dilma has publicly been complaining about the high interest rates for months (Selic) and has been complaining openly about the high rates the banks charge. Her advisors have been cutting the Selic and publicly state they want a lower Selic going ahead. They have changed the rules about the caderneta de poupanca to pay lower interest rates. This is good for the Gov since lower interest rates means for money for infrastructure, healthcar, security, education, and smaller interest payments to the lenders! Brazil wants more manufacturing value added jobs and to do that Brazil wants a lower Real. Oh yeah at the exchange houses Brazilians now pay over 2 reais to buy dollars…GreatBallsoFire2012-05-07 12:30:37

  • #209774

    jeb2886
    Member

    A higher Real will bring in Foreign investors, however, if I was a foreign investor who had property and started seeing the Real slip, I would dump the property. Investors come in trickles and flee in herds.
    I don’t think Brazil can compete in many markets for exports, everyone has surpassed the build quality companies in Brazil create. I’m sure there are some very good products, but exports probably won’t jump that much. A commodity is a commodity and based on a world market price, not a local one.
    Brazil could create more manufacturing jobs internally for internal uses by pricing out the competition with a higher Real though. I think housing will sink more than go up because foreigners will flee, create small holes in the local real estate market, but only in real popular places. A few homes here or there won’t create a problem. Dumping Rio properties might be bad though.

  • #209775

    Gianni
    Member

    Why would anyone dump their house in Rio?…. People have always been coming to Rio, historically it been pure growth. That isn’t to undermine the picture as a whole, but rather, see the babble going on is too much. Let’s just wait and see what happens to the market, elsewhere.

  • #209776

    jeb2886
    Member

    People who buy vacation homes and/or have other homes elsewhere. When you start seeing a market crumble you jump out, especially when others start jumping. #1 rule in investing: preserve capital. When the currency is crumbling under you, and housing prices have taken off for 7 years, it’s time to pull out and re evaluate, not see if you can get the peak dollar. That will start things off, and then a herd will start.
    That is more likely to happen than people running over there to buy because of a low Real. Because investors come in trickles. It takes them years to come back, and they come back slowly.
    Cycles happen, it’s just about understanding the cycles and getting the timing right.

  • #209777

    Gianni
    Member

    My point is that you are making it sound like Brazilian suburbs are only inhabited by foreigners? Lol… That’s why the media is the last reference anyone should use when it comes to deciding on what to do with your monetary possessions.. Who knows, it could undergo a crash like the mid-west, but I doubt it. I think these high prices are here to stay, and that is very unfortunate to anyone who enjoys Rio on a budget.
    I’m not saying your advice is misguided or wrong. I just think you are making giving a toast at the wrong party.

  • #209779

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]People who buy vacation homes and/or have other homes elsewhere. When you start seeing a market crumble you jump out, especially when others start jumping. #1 rule in investing: preserve capital. When the currency is crumbling under you, and housing prices have taken off for 7 years, it’s time to pull out and re evaluate, not see if you can get the peak dollar. That will start things off, and then a herd will start.

    That is more likely to happen than people running over there to buy because of a low Real. Because investors come in trickles. It takes them years to come back, and they come back slowly.

    Cycles happen, it’s just about understanding the cycles and getting the timing right.
    [/QUOTE] You are confusing several issues. First, most people who buy a place in Rio, buy because they love the place and don’t give a damn about the exchange rates. Second, the currency may fall, yet property prices in local currency may rise or fall as well. Third, the foreigners do not move the market in Brazil as they own less than 1% of the properties.

  • #209781

    jeb2886
    Member

    Ah no, that isn’t what I meant, when the top properties go, people move into claim them. Why buy in the burbs when you can buy some rio beach front flat for the same price? Now the burbs need to adjust their pricing to attract more buyers.
    Those that have moved there for good aren’t leaving. Those that had 6M homes to start with aren’t leaving. Those that perhaps invested 200K in a property that is now worth 1M or more? They might leave. If you all of a sudden had an asset grow to become your most valuable asset in africa somewhere, wouldn’t you look at packing up and taking that money back home if you started seeing drops, and currency fluctuations?

  • #209782

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]A higher Real will bring in Foreign investors, however, if I was a foreign investor who had property and started seeing the Real slip, I would dump the property. Investors come in trickles and flee in herds.

    I don’t think Brazil can compete in many markets for exports, everyone has surpassed the build quality companies in Brazil create. I’m sure there are some very good products, but exports probably won’t jump that much. A commodity is a commodity and based on a world market price, not a local one.

    Brazil could create more manufacturing jobs internally for internal uses by pricing out the competition with a higher Real though. I think housing will sink more than go up because foreigners will flee, create small holes in the local real estate market, but only in real popular places. A few homes here or there won’t create a problem. Dumping Rio properties might be bad though.

    [/QUOTE] Brazil exports planes, cars, shoes, electronics from Manaus, and will export much more with a lower real creating jobs in manufacturing which is what Dilma, the socialist President of the Workers Party wants. She wants lower interest rates and more value added products and it is happening. Foreigners will not flee as a weak real creates more value for the newcomers. GreatBallsoFire2012-05-07 13:12:26

  • #209784

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Ah no, that isn’t what I meant, when the top properties go, people move into claim them. Why buy in the burbs when you can buy some rio beach front flat for the same price? Now the burbs need to adjust their pricing to attract more buyers.

    Those that have moved there for good aren’t leaving. Those that had 6M homes to start with aren’t leaving. Those that perhaps invested 200K in a property that is now worth 1M or more? They might leave. If you all of a sudden had an asset grow to become your most valuable asset in africa somewhere, wouldn’t you look at packing up and taking that money back home if you started seeing drops, and currency fluctuations?
    [/QUOTE] Once again you are confusing the issues. Markets move up and down in local currency. The local currency can move up and down agaist the Euro/Dollar so you have three elevators moving at the same time. Toss in the political risk of let’s say the PT sliding farther to the left and next thing you know all property owned by foreigners is confiscated like in Cuba. Game over like Cristina Kirchner grabbibg YPF from Spain’s Repsol in Argentina. Ivo Morales in Bolivia grabbing the Light Company, and Brazil shutting down Chevron via judicial decree capping a well that was producing 60,000 barrels a day over a miniscule seep. Exxon has left Brazil after poor results in the pre-sal. In fact Brazil is a very dictatorial form of government with all kinds of decrees coming out of Brasilia. Latest one just a day or two ago reducing the minimum interest on the Caderneta de Poupanca.

  • #209785

    jeb2886
    Member

    Investors flee in herds and come in trickles. Anything new has a good chance of creating a rush for the doors. If it doesn’t, then a few more people will trickle in. If an investor came for high interest rates and those disappear, they’ll leave. They won’t stick around to see what other new opportunities they can get, they were interested in rates. If they’re interested in investing in car manufacturing, they might come to see what’s new with lower rates, but unlikely they’ll jump from one investment style to another, they’ll just seek the returns elsewhere for something they’re comfortable with.
    Blocking imports is far more important, brazilian exports don’t make up for that much of the economy the last time I looked over the numbers. Most of the exports were commodities based, with most of the manufacturing being used internally. Higher Real makes it harder for even cheaper countries to import.
    What you’re saying will create more jobs and save jobs internally, but I’m leery on it creating any real positive effects on exports.

  • #209786

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire][QUOTE=jkennedy]Ah no, that isn’t what I meant, when the top properties go, people move into claim them. Why buy in the burbs when you can buy some rio beach front flat for the same price? Now the burbs need to adjust their pricing to attract more buyers.

    Those that have moved there for good aren’t leaving. Those that had 6M homes to start with aren’t leaving. Those that perhaps invested 200K in a property that is now worth 1M or more? They might leave. If you all of a sudden had an asset grow to become your most valuable asset in africa somewhere, wouldn’t you look at packing up and taking that money back home if you started seeing drops, and currency fluctuations?
    [/QUOTE] Once again you are confusing the issues. Markets move up and down in local currency. The local currency can move up and down agaist the Euro/Dollar so you have three elevators moving at the same time. Toss in the political risk of let’s say the PT sliding farther to the left and next thing you know all property owned by foreigners is confiscated like in Cuba. Game over like Cristina Kirchner grabbibg YPF from Spain’s Repsol in Argentina. Ivo Morales in Bolivia grabbing the Light Company, and Brazil shutting down Chevron via judicial decree capping a well that was producing 60,000 barrels a day over a miniscule seep. Exxon has left Brazil after poor results in the pre-sal. In fact Brazil is a very dictatorial form of government with all kinds of decrees coming out of Brasilia. Latest one just a day or two ago reducing the minimum interest on the Caderneta de Poupanca. Back to you example of a property going from 1m to 200K? Study the rents and perhaps buy 5 more….LOLCertainly not leave. Smart money is poking about Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland not a bubble hot Brazil no way a bit late to the cocktail party indeed. [/QUOTE] GreatBallsoFire2012-05-07 13:28:15

  • #209787

    Gianni
    Member

    Lol
    Jk, your facts are one-sided. Do you even own a an apartment in Rio? I don’t see prices going anywhere, anytime soon. It’s all inflated hype among gringos! The reports that come out never accurately reflect what’s happening around here. We’re still trying to sell but that’s just because it’s not exactly a buyers market when prices are so damn high. That being said the place is still full of transactions and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down.

  • #209788

    jeb2886
    Member

    So you have a place, that you can’t sell, because it’s a buyers market. Yet prices will remain high because… well economics doesn’t work correctly down there?
    Just because there are plenty of transactions going on, doesn’t mean it makes sense.
    I would sell my 1M place, and buy 5 @ 200K when they got there. I wouldn’t hold a 1M property to 200K.
    Next up, lets look at rents vs buying. If I had a 1M flat in Rio, not including maintenance, taxes or any other expenses. I would need just over 10,000/month to cover a mortgage. Or put another way, if I put this money in another investment I would expect at least 10,000 return on it. Can you get that kind of rent for a 1M place in Rio? I have never looked. But that is the metric to use if you’re going to invest.
    If you’re speculating and hoping for appreciation to just keep coming, then you’re no better off than the people who bought properties in the US during boom saying “I can’t afford this, it makes no financial sense, but prices just keep going up and up! I’m going to be a multi millionaire in no time!”
    If you’re a long term investor, rents must cover the the investment and lost opportunity costs. So I ask you, can you get a minimum of 10,000 for a 1M rental in Rio?

  • #209791

    Gianni
    Member

    The purchasing power of the middle-class is more than available to cover rising rental prices. This is Zona-Sul it is incredibly easy to find people willing to live and rent here. Especially during carnival and new years! We’re not contracting a project to spread the pie five ways and make profit in a ‘buyer’s market’. This is merely a discussion of what is currently happening with RE around here. Most of the nearly serious offers we have received are people who have particular preferences (family size, living space, furnished or not, view) etc.. it’s not a question of making a dollar for profit, though obviously everyone needs to make money. If you’re going to purchase a property for 1M then I’m pretty sure you are going to be aware of the probability of that property raising any further in value. Most buyers coming to in Ipanema/Leblon are for the long-term.
    I don’t understand why you are trying to propose a buying strategy when we are discussing what the active market is doing. There is no need for a lesson here, again, stated by GF, you are toastmaster at an AA meeting.

  • #209794

    jeb2886
    Member

    Does it make financial sense to buy or rent. Does it make financial sense to invest vs simple home ownership. If you can’t get $10,000 rent for 1M home, you’re better off renting from someone and keeping the money in the bank.
    Put another way, if you’re looking to buy a 1M place in Rio, can someone afford a 10K mortgage payment? How many? If the average house is 1M, then the average buyer must be able to pay 1M in mortgage payments as well.
    If housing is increasing in value because people are bouncing from one house equity pull out to another, that isn’t sustainable.
    If people can’t afford 10K mortgage payments on a place, that isn’t sustainable.
    If people can rent for less than 10K, then renting makes more sense than owning, again, pricing isn’t sustainable.
    You’re trying to discuss the market as if you don’t need buyers????? Buyers keep the market going, what are the buyers able to do and how long can they do it?

  • #209796

    Gianni
    Member

    Of the course market needs buyers to sustain itself! Who said that it does not? I said that we haven’t sold yet. That does not mean that it we will not find buyers for any of our apartments. Our position does not or should not be interpreted as that we are in a panic. Although some people my be frantically trying to sell either in hopes of making profit or because they cannot make the alleged 10k payments. Each situation is a variation of its own circumstance. But who needs to be generic??
    There are buyers out there, there are in every market, no matter how nice or ugly the conditions. I appreciate the advice you are or are not offering. lol
    Because the market has seemed to reach a peak, but not one that is going to crash. We, personally, individually, uniquely, have decided to go liquid and yield ROI via other investments. If you are trying to imply that the market is stagnant in regards to purchasing to make profit during increasing property values. Then you’re correct friend!
    This conversation has achieved nothing, not one thing! (in case you didn’t know)…

  • #209797

    jeb2886
    Member

    I’m saying, long term this housing situation is not sustainable. It’s currently sustainable because of the influx of capital, but new buyers can’t come in here. A new buyer is someone who needs to finance, and these prices are too high to finance, thus your supply of buyers is limited to those that currently have money.
    It could go higher for several more years, it could go lower over night. But it’s not sustainable long term, which means it’s in some kind of bubble.

  • #209799

    Gianni
    Member

    We’re living in an age when more millionaires are created out of thin-air than any point in history. The is is Rio de Janeiro, not northern Idaho. I am very confident the world markets could crash again and that Rio would sit quite resilient against those waves.
    Maybe, for you, these prices are sustainable. If that is the case I don’t understand why you are evening bringing it up?

  • #209801

    jeb2886
    Member

    So magic money from the sky will support the pricing in Rio?
    Sustainable is the ability of the local population to buy and support the current pricing. Not for magic faeries to drop off millionaires.
    Investors coming/leaving can create waves because the market is sensitive to these things.
    A health environment shouldn’t have to worry about that though. As far as pricing on high end homes goes, those prices can go up and down and are not a factor of people salaries. High wealth people will pay what they feel for a house, not what economically makes sense, those properties are like paintings. The scream is only worth 120M because someone is willing to pay that for it. If those rich investors left and the only people left were people had an hourly wage, it wouldn’t be selling for that price
    Rio has a large number of homes that will never make sense, but properties owned by the general population and paid for by working wages have to remain sustainable, otherwise they will fall in value.

  • #209804

    Gianni
    Member

    I know how a market is prompted to function. Though, according to you it must facilitate its aptitude logically. While this is Brazil, Rio is mainly exempt, especially Ipa-Copa, logic doesn’t apply when you have plenty of capital within several square miles.
    You said it yourself “what they feel not what economics dictates”. Then what are you trying to establish here? Rio investors or residents will not flee as you so suspect. Sorry, it’s just not going to happen and I’m pretty sure my cleaning lady knows that… So there are no ‘if, ands or buts’ ….
    Regular markets, regular prices, regular goods and services are subject to different protocol than exempted items of higher desirability. I am sure you know that and as for ‘regular issues’ there was no discussion of it. Frankly, I feel offended that you have wasted my time! lol

  • #209807

    jeb2886
    Member

    To sum up what you’re saying:
    “It’s different this time, it’s totally different….”

  • #209808

    Gianni
    Member

    It’s different here, now, then, and always! Any commodity that is subject to demand will remain exempt from the norm…
    Didn’t you learn that in micro-econ ?

  • #209809

    jeb2886
    Member

    It had to be said…
    I agree, anyone in Rio who has purchased with money that isn’t tied to a salary has the ability to keep their homes without worry. They’re beyond worrying about the changes in their land value.
    Others who are salaried and ended up in a sweet location will have a lot of pressure put on them to sell as prices fall. Would you hold onto your single largest asset as it went from 1M to 200K? Probably not. Likewise they’re more likely to bail.
    Anyone who has the wealth to buy, doesn’t care and will buy at any time. That means new buyers will be putting up funds from a sustainable sources only.

  • #209875

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringodude]Lol
    Jk, your facts are one-sided. Do you even own a an apartment in Rio? I don’t see prices going anywhere, anytime soon. It’s all inflated hype among gringos! The reports that come out never accurately reflect what’s happening around here. We’re still trying to sell but that’s just because it’s not exactly a buyers market when prices are so damn high. That being said the place is still full of transactions and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
    [/QUOTE]
    Umm.. I think you’re crazy to sell any real estate, unless you plan to pack up and move back to your country to play with the polar bears. Seriously, I was saying the same thing 3-4 years ago…. don’t sell. You haven’t seen bubble yet. Maybe duringthe Olympics I would consider selling.
    What do you have an apartment/hotel/hostel? If you have a link to a listing with photos, send it to me please.

  • #209877

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]It had to be said…
    I agree, anyone in Rio who has purchased with money that isn’t tied to a salary has the ability to keep their homes without worry. They’re beyond worrying about the changes in their land value.
    Others who are salaried and ended up in a sweet location will have a lot of pressure put on them to sell as prices fall. Would you hold onto your single largest asset as it went from 1M to 200K? Probably not. Likewise they’re more likely to bail.
    Anyone who has the wealth to buy, doesn’t care and will buy at any time. That means new buyers will be putting up funds from a sustainable sources only.
    [/QUOTE]
    jk, going from 1 million to 200k is possible highly UNLIKELY, at least in these market conditions. Brazilians chase deals too. There’re a lot of people with excess cash all over the country. Location is still the most important variable in RE.
    And yes, I saw tons of people that watched their 401(k) plans and share holdings dive to those levels and they never bailed.

  • #209906



    RUH-ROH!!!

    More banks certainly to follow. 2.25… here we come!

  • #209921

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob] [QUOTE=jkennedy]It had to be said…

    I agree, anyone in Rio who has purchased with money that isn’t tied to a salary has the ability to keep their homes without worry. They’re beyond worrying about the changes in their land value.

    Others who are salaried and ended up in a sweet location will have a lot of pressure put on them to sell as prices fall. Would you hold onto your single largest asset as it went from 1M to 200K? Probably not. Likewise they’re more likely to bail.

    Anyone who has the wealth to buy, doesn’t care and will buy at any time. That means new buyers will be putting up funds from a sustainable sources only.
    [/QUOTE]

    jk, going from 1 million to 200k is possible highly UNLIKELY, at least in these market conditions. Brazilians chase deals too. There’re a lot of people with excess cash all over the country. Location is still the most important variable in RE.

    And yes, I saw tons of people that watched their 401(k) plans and share holdings dive to those levels and they never bailed.

    [/QUOTE] That million real property costs about $700,000 at 1.50, $500,000 at 2.0 and $333,000 at 3.0, $250,000 at 4.0Inflation is becoming a big deal in Brazil….

  • #209938

    jeb2886
    Member

    1M to 200K as GBF mentioned, is possible through just inflation. Brazil has seen a double edged increases for investors, especially foreign. Decently high inflation, currency has increased in value even through high inflation and values have exceeded inflation. Reversing that process could happen quickly.
    Even now, as gringodude mentioned, it’s a buyers market. When the sellers go from “whatever, if I find someone, I find someone” to “I need to sell this market is going all to hell, I made 800K, drop it 100K and liquidate it fast!” That is when others will jump in.
    Also when “speculators” get in, they will try and sell. Trying to sell into a falling market is difficult. When it starts to fall, it tends to fall pretty fast, it’s not like you have 2 years to prep yourself.
    Adding a good number of foreign investors who want out at any cost, will create a problem. Even if they only own 1%, that’s a large number of extra properties on the market.
    401k is a different beast, people believe their 401k is where they’re supposed to buy and hold. Weather the turmoil, etc. Investment property is known to be somewhat risky, and people only start investing when it looks like it just can’t fail. It’s not about everyone acting at once either, it’s just about a big enough change in market sentiment and just enough people to create a herd.

  • #209947

    Gianni
    Member

    SB[/b}, check vivareal if you’re interested in buying, I’m not expect it but, hey we never know!
    Sell now, wait for the real to drop, and move money back home! It’s all a giant forex game! Mind you keeping liquidity is especially important. I forfeit from any rental income headaches. Never would I want to be a landlord!

  • #209960

    If you guys want a good cry, check out this article about Rio RE, written back in 2001! Cry

  • #209962

    [QUOTE=frank4000]This is what I was alluding to before as the US rises against the real property prices relative to US will fall.[/QUOTE]
    Most definitely! Yet this is true for only a limited amount of time, then internal prices always increase!
    This article about exchange controlsshould be required reading for any gringo wanting to invest in Real Estate, be it in Brasil, or any other country!

  • #209964

    Another good article: Investment Crazes and Fads
    EDIT: You guys in Rio will need more Kleenex for this one too…
    Gringo.Floripa2012-05-08 15:19:58

  • #209966

    jeb2886
    Member

    Kind of odd articles. I would never recommend investing in another city for real estate, let alone another country. There are just far too many variables and people simply can’t learn the market well enough to profit off of it. Many people were burned by buying in Florida or Vegas thinking they were getting great deals during the boom years, but having no clue of what those areas offered.
    The article says invest in Rio, then follows up, be prepared to buy for 85K see it go to 500K and then back to 85K. Uh, that’s just gambling and net/net there aren’t any gains unless you happen to jump out of the cycle at the right time.
    Only invest in areas where you’re living.

  • #209972

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Uh, that’s just gambling and net/net there aren’t any gains unless you happen to jump out of the cycle at the right time.
    [/QUOTE]
    So no different than the stock market. At least w/RE, regardless of the loss/depreciation, you still have four walls to show for your investment. The “downer” is if you happen to hold a large mortgage, and then the property value drags you underwater.
    It should be noted that ALL of those articles I linked to in the past hour or so, are at least ten years old. Yet I think they provide an interesting perspective, especially since the announcement a few years back of the 2014 and 2016 events to be held in Rio.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-05-08 15:56:13

  • #209973

    jeb2886
    Member

    The stock market you can bail on, it’s up to you. Housing isn’t something that can be bailed on very easily. It’s also a single large asset. Most people have probably 90% of their wealth in a house, but investing in stocks should be like 3-15%max per stock.
    Real estate has maintenance costs, insurance costs, and tax costs. If a property is somewhere you can’t reach by car, it’s pretty hard to manage it at all. hiring a management company helps with most tasks, but being able to check up, and ensure things are being handled correctly still requires you’re on site once in awhile.

  • #209979

    jeb2886
    Member

    Ugh Gold. It’s an expensive commodity if you buy the hard asset and it’s primary use is in jewellery. That leaves it open to a huge amount interpretation as to it’s value. Diamonds/jewels are about the worst thing you can invest in.
    I like property, but it’s about waiting for a good cycle. It’s not exactly hard to figure out when a cycle is hitting. I gave a good metric. Can you rent for more than the mortgage? If yes, buy away! If no, then you’re hoping for appreciation to make up the difference and it’s eventually going to reset. If you make a mistake and it resets on you while you’re holding, you could be in trouble. If rent is still covering the mortgage, it’s not that bad. However, it’s far less likely to go much lower when mortgages cover rents because investors come out of the wood work and go on a buying spree — they set the bottom.
    I’ve learned it’s not important to call top, or the way up, it’s only important to know when to get out. You’ll make all your money selling early. Timing the top is a very dangerous game, because the market tumbles hard and fast once it reaches the top.

  • #210087

    celso
    Member

    Brazil Bulls Capitulate as State Intervention Spurs Outflows

    By Michael Patterson and Ye Xie – May 9, 2012 6:26 AM PT

    Brazil’s efforts to boost economic growth with the most aggressive interest rate cuts are driving away investors, reducing equity valuations to five-year lows and fueling the world’s biggest currency tumble.

    MSCI Inc.’s Brazil Index has dropped to the cheapest level since 2006 versus global shares as investors pulled $869 million from the nation’s mutual funds this year, the only country among the four largest emerging marketsto post outflows, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and EPFR Global. Brazil’s debthanded foreign investors the worst losses since September last month.

    Enlarge imageBrazils%20President%20Dilma%20Rousseff%20

    Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff

    Brazils%20President%20Dilma%20Rousseff%20

    Jonathan Ernst/Bloomberg

    Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff.

    Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff. Photographer: Jonathan Ernst/Bloomberg

    Jim%20Chanos%20on%20Investment%20Strategy,%20China%20Economy,%20May%201%20

    Play Video

    Q

    May 1 (Bloomberg) — Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates Ltd., talks about the importance of short selling to markets, his investment strategy, and the outlook for China’s economy and banking industry. He speaks with Stephanie Ruhle at the Milken Institute 2012 Global Conference in Los Angeles on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Three months after saying Brazil was in a “sweet spot,”JPMorgan Chase & Co. is advising clients to reduce stock holdings as President Dilma Rousseff, 64, orders state banks to slash lending rates, threatening profits. The real is the world’s most overvalued major currency even after posting the worst slump in the past month, Morgan Stanley says. Stone HarborInvestment Partners began buying debt tied to consumer prices as six interest-rate cutssince August spur economists to predict inflation will top the central bank’s target for a third year.

    “We would share market concerns that the central bank may move too far and cause an inflation problem down the line,”said Phillipe Langham, who helps oversee about $40 billion as a London-based senior emerging-market fund managerat RBC Global Asset Management and holds fewer Brazilian shares than are represented in benchmark indexes. Government interference in the economy may be “accelerating with pressure on bank margins,”he said.

    Following Lula

    The MSCI Brazil index sank 1.8 percent to the lowest intraday level since Dec. 19 while the Bovespa Index, the local-currency benchmark gauge for stocks, dropped 1 percent as of 10:05 a.m. in Sao Paulo. The real fell as much as 1.2 percent to 1.9649 against the dollar, the weakest level since July 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    The central bank has cut the Selic target 3.5 percentage points in the past nine months, the biggest drop in the benchmark rates of the world’s 25 largest economies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Policy makers may reduce the Selic to as low as 8 percent from 9 percent today, trading in rate futures contracts shows.

    Savings Accounts

    Rousseff, a former Marxist guerrilla, became Brazil’s first female president in January 2011 by vowing to maintain the market-friendly policies of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that helped gross domestic product expand 37 percent during his eight years in office. Rousseff has instead increased the government’s role to shore up Latin America’s largest economy, according to UBS AG’s Bhanu Baweja.

    To weaken the real and protect exporters, Rousseff’s administration intervened in currency marketsand raised taxes on foreign borrowing. She stepped up pressure on companies such as Vale SA (VALE5)to hire more workers. Last week, the government modified savings account rules to pave the way for record-low benchmark interest rates.

    While the jobless rate in March was down from the year before and Rousseff’s approval rating among voters climbed to a record, investors are growing concerned that the policies will lead to faster inflationand lower corporate profits, Baweja, the head of emerging-market fixed-income and currency strategy at UBS in London, wrote in an April 26 report.

    Lula Rally

    The dollar-denominated MSCI Brazil gaugehas dropped 25 percent since Rousseff and central bank President Alexandre Tombini, 48, took office while the Bovespa slumped 13 percent. That compares with the 4.1 percent drop in the dollar-based MSCI All-Country World index through yesterday.

    Brazilian government bondsreturned 2.1 percent in dollar terms during the past year, trailing a 4 percent advance for Latin American debt, according to JPMorgan indexes. Brazilian debt fell 3.9 percent in April, the second month of losses.

    Rousseff’s struggle to win over investors contrasts with the success her predecessor had when taking office a decade ago.

    Lula, tapping into a three-fold surge in the country’s commodity exports, cut thebudget deficit, paid back $15.5 billion of loans to the International Monetary Fundahead of schedule and accumulated a record $287 billion in international reserves. The MSCI Brazil (MXBR)index jumped 69 percent during his first 16 months as president, reversing a 37 percent plunge in the 10 months before he took office that was sparked by concern the former union leader would default on the country’s debt.

    ‘Inadmissible’ Rates

    Rousseff, who said during a May 2010 speech to investors inNew Yorkthat policy makers could “gradually” reduce the country’s 4.5 percent inflation target, has since shifted her focus to cutting interest rates. Economists forecast inflation will remain above 5 percent this year and next, according to acentral bank surveyreleased May 7. Consumer pricesrose 5.2 percent in the 12 months through March.

    The interest rates charged by Brazilian banks are“inadmissible,” Rousseff said in a televised address on April 30. She said in her weekly radio address on May 7 that Brazil’s banking system is so profitable “it can perfectly do its part”by reducing loan rates. State-owned lenders Banco do Brasil SA and Caixa Economica Federal said last month they will cut rates.

    Itau Unibanco Holding SA and Banco Bradesco SA, Brazil’s biggest non-government government banks, are preparing cuts ininterest rateon loans to companies and individuals, O Estado de S. Paulo reported today, citing the lenders’ chief executive officers.

    Banks Retreat

    Brazil’s 44 percent average interest ratefor consumer loans in March compares with the 9.5 percent average U.S. personal loanrates on May 4, according to data compiled by Brazil’s central bank and Bankrate Inc.

    Last week the government adjusted a 150-year-old rule setting minimum returns on savings accounts to make further reductions in the benchmark rate possible.

    “As the easing gets extended, inflation concerns are being reignited,” Emy Shayo Cherman, an equity strategist at JPMorgan in Sao Paulo, wrote in an April 27 research report. “Regulatory risk will continue and will continue to have impact on equities.”

    Cherman said investors should cut their Brazilian stock holdings to below their weighting in benchmark indexes, from a previous overweight position, and recommended lowering bank holdings. She said she likes CCR SA, a Sao Paulo-based toll road operator whose revenue is tied to inflation.

    An MSCI gauge of Brazilian financial stockshas tumbled 23 percent during the past two months, the most among 10 industry groups. CCR jumped 8.5 percent during the same period.

    Vale Ouster

    Vale, the world’s largest iron-ore producer, whose shareholders include state-run pension funds and a unit of the government’s development bank, retreated 11 percent in Sao Paulo trading during the past three months and state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA declined 24 percent.

    Rousseff, who served as Lula’s energy minister and chief of staff, has called for higher taxes on mining companies and her administration prompted the ouster of Vale Chief Executive Officer Roger Agnellilast year after criticizing the company for not generating jobs. Government-imposed caps on Petrobras’s domestic fuel prices, designed to curb inflation, have led to losses in the refinery unit of Brazil’s biggest company by market value.

    ‘Giant ATM’

    Petrobras is a “giant ATM machine” for the Brazilian government and its profits are being used to support local employment and investment rather than shareholder returns, Jim Chanos, the founder of New York-based hedge fund Kynikos Associates Ltd., said in a May 1 interview on Bloomberg Television. Chanos, the short seller who predicted Enron Corp.’s collapse in 2001, said he’s betting Petrobras shares will drop.

    Vale and Petrobras, the Rio de Janeiro-based companies that comprise about 30 percent of the MSCI Brazil index, have also been weighed down by slowing economic growth in China, the country’s biggest trading partner. The S&P GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities, which surged 84 percent during Lula’s first term, has climbed 2.7 percent since Rousseff took office.

    The press office of the Presidency, the Finance Ministry, the central bank and Petrobras declined to comment in e-mailed statements.

    The real has depreciated 21 percent from a 12-year high in July and was down 4.2 percent in the past month through yesterday, the worst performer among the 16 major and 25 developing currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

    Real’s Slump

    Higher costs for goods and services in Brazil relative to other nations signal the real’s decline isn’t over, Ruchir Sharma, who helps oversee about $287 billion as the head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley’s investment management unit, said in a May 1 interview in London.

    The Economist’s Big Mac index, which measures the local cost of McDonald’s Corp.’s burgers around the world, shows that the sandwich cost $6.16 last year in Brazil, a record 51 percent more than in the U.S. A Russian Big Mac was 34 percent cheaper than in the U.S. while China’s sold for 44 percent less.

    Investors shouldn’t be surprised that Rousseff is stepping up government intervention, Alexandre Schwartsman, a Brazil central bank director from 2003 to 2006 who now works as a consultant in Sao Paulo, said in a phone interview.

    Rousseff said in a February 2010 speech in Brasilia that her government would resume the state’s role of managing the nation’s development. Her approval rating rose to a record 77 percent in March from 72 percent in December, according to Ibope, which surveyed 2,002 people from March 16-19 for a poll that has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

    Jobless Rate

    Brazil’s jobless ratedeclined to 6.2 percent in March from 6.5 percent a year earlier, according to government data. Thebudget gapnarrowed to the equivalent of 2.4 percent of gross domestic product from 2.5 percent when she took office.

    After the economy grew 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter from a year before, the weakest pace since 2009, Rousseff’s policies are justified, said Ronaldo Patah, who manages 120 billion reais ($63 billion) as the head of fixed income at Itau Asset Management.

    “They are doing the right job, protecting growth and employment,” Patah said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo.

    The MSCI Brazil index trades for 1.5 times net assets, down from 1.9 times when Rousseff took office and 28 percent lower than the average level during Lula’s administration, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The $886 billion gauge of Brazilian shares is valued at a 14 percent discount to the MSCI All-Country World index, the widest gap since September 2006, data compiled by MSCI and Bloomberg show.

    Falling Valuations

    The MSCI Brazil indexhas declined 13 percent since the central bank began cutting interest rates from a 2 1/2-year high in August, compared with an average rally of 68 percent in the first eight months of the three monetary easing cycles during the past decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    The difference between yields on two-year and five-year debt increased to a record 143 basis points, or 1.43 percentage points, on March 14, a sign that traders are betting the central bank will be forced to reverse course and raise interest rates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gap was 123 basis points yesterday.

    The yield gap between inflation-linked bonds due in 2015 and similar-maturity fixed-rate securities, a gauge of investor expectations for annual consumer price increases, rose to 5.57 percent yesterday from a record low of 5.27 percent on Nov. 28.

    Steffen Reichold, an emerging-market economist at Stone Harbor, said the firm, with $47 billion in assets, is buying inflation-linked bonds for the first time in “a while.”

    “There’s a risk that the central bank pushes it a little bit too much,” Reichold said at the Bloomberg Link Latin America Investing Conference in New York on April 26.

    To contact the reporters on this story:Michael Pattersonin London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net; Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos at papadopoulos@bloomberg.net

  • #210091

    graham
    Participant

    GBoF – Thanks for posting.

  • #210096

    agri2001
    Participant

    same here GBF
    I bet you`er going to love Dilma baby if she gives us 2.20-2.50 to 1
    Come on now admit it.Smile

  • #210098

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001]same here GBF
    I bet you`er going to love Dilma baby if she gives us 2.20-2.50 to 1
    Come on now admit it.Smile
    [/QUOTE] Dilma is smart. She is accepting advice from Bresser Perreira who says the Real needs to go back to 2.60-2.80 to help out industry and agri exports. Lower interest rates also give the Gov more money for health,education, infrastructure. So yes, I say good job Dilma. She is right to go after the banks demanding lower interest rates. So her buddy at the Central Bank continues to drop the Selic rate. Wonderful! The hot money is leaving Brazil. The old ladies in Japan who bought mutual funds that bought Real debt back at 1.60 are losing their shirts/dresses. They yank the deposit, more real weakness…fine. At 2.60-2.80 the shoe industry will jump back and so will auto part exports, farmers have more reais from sales, very much a pro-jobs approach. ClapShe must be pro jobs as head of the Worker’s Party.LOLGreatBallsoFire2012-05-09 15:00:53

  • #210099

    Gianni
    Member

    If it reached 2.80, I would Cryout of joy!

  • #210100

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Inflation!

  • #210103

    agri2001
    Participant

    You had to throw water to the party..LOL

  • #210107

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Warning – female Latin American politicians are in a tizzy. Buckle up! It’s going to be a bumpy ride. [We always knew it would be].

  • #210109

    jeb2886
    Member

    The whole whipsaw currency thing isn’t great for business. Setting up a business that relies on a “weak” currency is kind of dangerous.

  • #210110

    jeb2886
    Member

    I also think what she’s doing is the correct thing to do. There is no reason to have those ultra high interest rates, the country has shown enough stability that it shouldn’t need to pay them. Currency is too high for the wrong reasons…

  • #210111

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]The whole whipsaw currency thing isn’t great for business. Setting up a business that relies on a “weak” currency is kind of dangerous.
    [/QUOTE] Brazil has always been mainly a commodity exporter with a weak currency. Nothing has changed. The real is still way overvalued, look at the Brazilians with the huge suitcases returning, they buy condos in Florida by the dozens. Dilma doesn’t care for those people, they did not vote for her. A weaker real with lower interest rates is good for consumers, exports, jobs, Gov will have to pay a lower amount to service debt and will have more money for PAC 2013.I agree with Dilma on all of the above.

  • #210115

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Lest we forget…the single and most efficacious tool in the ‘economy box’ is the interest rate wrench. Slackening control on credit rates for the indigenous consumer, specifically that foolhardy breed of voter, the supercilious Brazilian consumer, will be like releasing the bulls at Pamplona. There will be casualties.

    The higher cost of imported goods will be countered by lower credit terms, so no change there to be perceived by the newborn middle class consumer other than, of course, the negative balance of payments for Brazil. Negative balance of payments calls for yet more and more political manipulation of markets, taxation and protectionist policies. And while the big boys like the USA, UK and major European nations fret about threats to their AAA credit ratings, Brazil struggles to maintain its BBB rating way down the scale of things despite the high ranking in economy size. Is the Argentinian disease creeping north? God save us from these, vote for me tits & ass Samba politics.

  • #210119

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire][QUOTE=agri2001]same here GBF
    I bet you`er going to love Dilma baby if she gives us 2.20-2.50 to 1
    Come on now admit it.Smile
    [/QUOTE]

    Dilma is smart. She is accepting advice from Bresser Perreira who says the Real needs to go back to 2.60-2.80 to help out industry and agri exports. Lower interest rates also give the Gov more money for health,education, infrastructure. So yes, I say good job Dilma.

    She is right to go after the banks demanding lower interest rates.
    So her buddy at the Central Bank continues to drop the Selic rate. Wonderful! The hot money is leaving Brazil. The old ladies in Japan who bought mutual funds that bought Real debt back at 1.60 are losing their shirts/dresses. They yank the deposit, more real weakness…fine.
    At 2.60-2.80 the shoe industry will jump back and so will auto part exports, farmers have more reais from sales, very much a pro-jobs approach. ClapShe must be pro jobs as head of the Worker’s Party.LOL

    [/QUOTE]

    Good article GBoF, thanks once more, you are smarter than you look Winkbut i have just got back from the pub/dinner, so i will read it better in the morning. Cheers

    Amsterdam2012-05-10 09:07:10

  • #210141

    Gilmour
    Member

    Umm.. it’s not just about exchange rates. It seems like domestic demand is peetering out. Check out http://www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/
    I was shocked to see a forecasted +20%for new auto sales this week when it was really alittle more than -14%. Consumption has its limits.

  • #210144

    agri2001
    Participant

    Rousserff Rate Cut Crusade Undermines Brazil’s Banks

    By Cristiane Lucchesi and Matthew Bristow on May 09, 2012

    Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff hassettled on a crowd-pleasing target as part of her campaign tolower interest rates: some of the world’s most profitable banks.

    In response to growth that slowed to 2.7 percent in LatinAmerica’s biggest economy last year, Rousseff has turned up thepressure on private lenders to force them to lower what shecalled “unacceptable” rates of an average 44 percent onconsumer loans. She’s also altered 150-year-old rulesguaranteeing savers minimum returns to pave the way for thecentral bank to lower its benchmark rate to a record low.

    The country’s biggest lenders, such as Itau UnibancoHolding SA (ITUB4), have responded by cutting some rates. While that maymollify Rousseff, the most popular leader in the Group of 20nations, according to polls, it won’t help bank profits that arebeing compressed by a rise in delinquency rates and will declinefurther with lower returns from government bond holdings,according to Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG. (CSGN) Brazilbank stocks have lost a sixth of their dollar value since April.

    “Attacking the banks works everywhere,” Albert Fishlow,an author of several books on Brazil’s economy and a former topU.S. diplomat to Latin America, said in a phone interview fromNew York. “People are frustrated in Brazil with the failure ofthe economy to pick up.”

    Labor Day Offensive

    The focus on the banks comes as Rousseff struggles toinvigorate an economy that grew last year less than Russia,India, China and most of Latin America. Besides cutting taxes onconsumer goods and boosting low-cost lending by state-run banks,policy makers have cut their key rate by 3.5 percentage pointssince August. The president has repeatedly called on banks tojoin that effort by reducing what they charge for loans.

    Her rhetoric reached a high point in a nationwide televisedaddress to commemorate international Labor Day on May 1. Shesaid it is ‚Äúunacceptable that Brazil, which has one of the mostsolid and profitable financial systems, continues to have thehighest interest rates in the world.‚Äù The $2.1 trillion economywill only be competitive when interest rates — the second-highest in the G-20 when adjusted for inflation — fall toglobal levels, she added.

    Even as the benchmark Selic approached record lows,Brazilians paid an average of 3.8 percentage points more onconsumer loans in March than they did in December 2010,according to central bank data.

    Unanswered Phone Call

    The Sao Paulo-based banking federation, known as Febraban,says charges for loans are still high because of delinquencyrates,which have risen to 7.4 percent of consumer loans inMarch from 5.7 percent in December 2010. Lowering borrowingcosts also depends on the government reducing taxes, reserverequirements and red tape, the group says.

    While the fall of the Selic helps, credit expansion will besustainable only when both lenders and borrowers feel optimisticabout the economy, Febraban’s chief economist Rubens Sardenbergsaid in a report on May 7. “You can lead a horse to water, butyou can’t make it drink,” he wrote.

    Sardenberg’s comment angered Rousseff, who refused to takea phone call from Luiz Carlos Trabuco, chief executive officerof Banco Bradesco SA (BBDC4), according to a government officialfamiliar with the episode. Instead, she sent Finance MinisterGuido Mantega to demand a public apology from Febraban, said theofficial, who isn’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

    The day after Sardenberg’s report was published, the groupissued a statement saying his analysis doesn’t reflect itsofficial position or that of its members. Bradesco and Febrabandeclined to comment on the matter, according to officials whocould not be identified because of internal policy.

    185% Interest Rates

    Rousseff’s demand for lower bank spreads has resonated withthe public, said Fishlow, who served as deputy U.S. assistantsecretary of state for Latin America under President Jimmy Carter. Brazilian consumers pay an average of 185 percent a yearon overdraft loans, while companies can pay as high as 107percent on some credit lines.

    Rousseff’s approval rating stands at 64 percent, thehighest ever for a Brazilian president after a year and threemonths in office, according to a Datafolha poll of 2,588 peopletaken April 18-19, which had a margin of error of two percentagepoints.

    The rates and fees charged by Brazil’s banks, along withthe returns they have traditionally earned on bonds paying thebenchmark rate, have put them among the world’s most profitable.The average return on equity for the country’s top lenders, agauge of how well a company invests shareholder capital, wasabout 17.9 percent lastyear, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.That compares with 7.4 percent in the U.S. and 2.2 percent forthe biggest banks in Europe
    ——————————————————————–
    The banks justify their spreads because of the high delinquency rate, but they mention nothing about the guy that takes out a loan, gets sick and cannot work and finds out that the 3000 real loan he took out now has become a 12,000 real liability which of course he could not pay back.
    These banks here in Brazil are not banks in the true sense of the word but are legalized loan sharks that makes the mafia drool with envy, and it`s all legal.

  • #210145

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire][QUOTE=jkennedy]The whole whipsaw currency thing isn’t great for business. Setting up a business that relies on a “weak” currency is kind of dangerous.
    [/QUOTE]

    Brazil has always been mainly a commodity exporter with a weak currency.

    Nothing has changed.
    The real is still way overvalued, look at the Brazilians with the huge suitcases returning, they buy condos in Florida by the dozens.
    Dilma doesn’t care for those people, they did not vote for her. A weaker real with lower interest rates is good for consumers, exports, jobs, Gov will have to pay a lower amount to service debt and will have more money for PAC 2013.I agree with Dilma on all of the above.

    [/QUOTE]

    Nice post. Smile
  • #210176

    jeb2886
    Member

    Btw, I think a weak currency is better for brazil in the long run, as long as it stays there. If it starts charging back down to 1.50 again, even for 6 months, that will hurt.
    High priced commodities makes it a little difficult, especially oil exports.

  • #210182

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Btw, I think a weak currency is better for brazil in the long run, as long as it stays there. If it starts charging back down to 1.50 again, even for 6 months, that will hurt.
    High priced commodities makes it a little difficult, especially oil exports.
    [/QUOTE]
    jk, I can be completely wrong, but I doubt it, but I’m getting the feeling that Brazil isn’t the hot investment anymore. I don’t know if it was all of the “measures” that the government took, or if commodities are cooling off. I really think it’s the latter…. It’s the natural cycle of things after all.

  • #210185

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob] I can be completely wrong, but I doubt it, but I’m getting the feeling that Brazil isn’t the hot investment anymore.
    [/QUOTE]

    In what sense, thats quite a generalised statement for such a huge country. It all depends on where you live i guess and what you are doing. I know people making fortunes here.
    I think because of all the credit that is being handed out like smarties, i think thats a nice bubble to watch in the future say 2 or 3 years time, when people who have never been given credit start to find themselves in problems, that will be a large percentage of the population i would think.

    Amsterdam2012-05-10 13:30:28

  • #210191

    jeb2886
    Member

    generally commodities aren’t great for a country that wants to grow it’s employee base. The commodities set the price of their currency often, and sets it kind of high. That means that the average person wanting to make shoes, has a hard time exporting because the currency is propped up by something huge like oil.
    From seeing how businesses are run in Brazil it seems like companies make huge amounts and run extremely inefficiently, which leads to decent profits, but huge . No matter what the interest rates, it’s clear that companies can invest and make money. A company that can export and stay in business while the currency goes from 4:1.5, and inflation goes at 5-15% the other way… it shows huge potential…
    The country clearly has potential to grow, it’s really when debt takes it out. It only takes like 2-3 years of stumbling before everyone is under water due to massive interest rates.

  • #210230

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Amsterdam][QUOTE=spongebob] I can be completely wrong, but I doubt it, but I’m getting the feeling that Brazil isn’t the hot investment anymore.
    [/QUOTE]

    In what sense, thats quite a generalised statement for such a huge country. It all depends on where you live i guess and what you are doing. I know people making fortunes here.
    I think because of all the credit that is being handed out like smarties, i think thats a nice bubble to watch in the future say 2 or 3 years time, when people who have never been given credit start to find themselves in problems, that will be a large percentage of the population i would think. [/quote]
    I watch everything very closely – the price of the dollar versus all the major currencies, and the price of most commodities. (I’ve been posting about this or a long time so I’m not lying…)
    I hate to say it, but really, it seems like things are peetering out in Brazil, Australia, and most countries that are “commodity-dependent”. The EXTENT, I don’t know. It could be for one week or 10 years. We don’t know. But these things are usuallly multi-year.
    It worked well for Lula to lower the IPI in 2008, but now it’s 2012, and it doesn’t seem to be working so Dilma is resorting to other tactics. For her, the “domestic” market is most important to her because they are the ones that vote…. Hopefully for all of us that really live here, it won’t be so bad.. and for those that are thinking about coming to Brazil.. wait a couple of years. And Amsterdam,I don’t think you are Ku-hertz, cu-ra, expatfartz or Ray-ku anymore.. your English is too “beat up”. You soud more like an Albanian writing English here.

    spongebob2012-05-10 22:21:40

  • #210234

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]You sound more like an Albanian writing English here.
    [/QUOTE]

    Errr, yeah thanks, you sound like Borat LOL
    especially when you are writing your posts that you think sound intelligent.
    So you make your living on the markets right? Living in Brazil and trading, is that it?
    Ps, i corrected your spelling for you Borat. LOL

    Amsterdam2012-05-10 23:08:51

  • #210235

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    I watch everything very closely – the price of the dollar versus all the major currencies, and the price of most commodities. (I’ve been posting about this or a long time so I’m not lying…)
    [/QUOTE]

    Ok Borat
    After watching your flick, i am starting to realise where you are coming from..lol

    Amsterdam2012-05-13 07:54:30

  • #210240

    Kevinferno
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    [QUOTE=Amsterdam]
    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    I can be completely wrong, but I doubt it, but I’m getting the feeling that Brazil isn’t the hot investment anymore. [/QUOTE]

     
    In what sense, thats quite a generalised statement for such a huge country. It all depends on where you live i guess and what you are doing. I know people making fortunes here.
     
    I think because of all the credit that is being handed out like smarties, i think thats a nice bubble to watch in the future say 2 or 3 years time, when people who have never been given credit start to find themselves in problems, that will be a large percentage of the population i would think. [/quote]I watch everything very closely – the price of the dollar versus all the major currencies, and the price of most commodities. (I’ve been posting about this or a long time so I’m not lying…)I hate to say it, but really, it seems like things are peetering out in Brazil, Australia, and most countries that are “commodity-dependent”. The EXTENT, I don’t know. It could be for one week or 10 years. We don’t know. But these things are usuallly multi-year.¬† It worked well for Lula to lower the IPI in 2008, but now it’s 2012, and it doesn’t seem to be working so Dilma is resorting to other tactics. For her, the “domestic” market is most important to her because they are the ones that vote…. Hopefully for all of us that really live here, it won’t be so bad.. and for those that are thinking about coming to Brazil.. wait a couple of years.¬† And Amsterdam,I don’t think you are Ku-hertz, cu-ra, expatfartz¬† or Ray-ku anymore.. your English is too “beat up”. You soud more like an Albanian writing English here.

    [/QUOTE]
    good one SB. I think we have a genuine Borat like character on our hands this time!

  • #210253

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000]lol. I am just happy the exchange rate is correcting itself. I make my move at 2.50 to Dollar.[/QUOTE]
    yeah, you’re in the US. I’m in Brazil. If there is hyperinflation here, it doesn’t affect you.
    @AmsterDork – no, I am a big coffee (caf√©tão). That’s how I make my living.

  • #210257

    Sooooo then, back on topic….
    ‘Contagion’ seems to have now crossed from Europe, back to the US: JP Morgan has 2 BILLION dollar trading loss. Ooopps!
    And once again, the loss is via the derivatives market! If anyone saw the film Inside Job, it was clear that after the debacle of 2008, nothing really changed on Wall Street, nor in Washington.
    Might as well be playing Chutes and Ladders… 2.50 (USD:BRL) here we come! Weeeeee!!!

  • #210259

    Gilmour
    Member

    2 billion loss! That’s what happened to the UBS trader and that was everywhere in the media. Whoops!

  • #210413

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]2 billion loss! That’s what happened to the UBS trader and that was everywhere in the media. Whoops!
    [/QUOTE]

    I used to do alot of futures trading, believe me its incredibly stressful and i stopped for that very reason, too many sleepness nights and moods like you wouldnt believe. One day up 50k the next day down 30k and so on. Protecting positions and opening up new positions to gain on slower positions. And when its with your own money its a different ball game.
    These guys are trading and for an aggressive trader it is very difficult for him to immeditately change his tactics to secure and safer positions, its like war.
    What they should have done was to relieve this guy and sent him home for a 2 week break and put some other tactical traders on it, instead they allowed him to carry on. I have done this so i know, its difficult to change from agressive to safe overnight, its a different mind set.

    Amsterdam2012-05-13 08:59:33

  • #210426

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Amsterdam][QUOTE=spongebob]2 billion loss! That’s what happened to the UBS trader and that was everywhere in the media. Whoops!
    [/QUOTE]

    I used to do alot of futures trading, believe me its incredibly stressful and i stopped for that very reason, too many sleepness nights and moods like you wouldnt believe. One day up 50k the next day down 30k and so on. Protecting positions and opening up new positions to gain on slower positions. And when its with your own money its a different ball game.
    These guys are trading and for an aggressive trader it is very difficult for him to immeditately change his tactics to secure and safer positions, its like war.
    What they should have done was to relieve this guy and sent him home for a 2 week break and put some other tactical traders on it, instead they allowed him to carry on. I have done this so i know, its difficult to change from agressive to safe overnight, its a different mind set.

    [/QUOTE]
    Futures = Derivaties. People have to be careful with the leverage.
    I didn’t read up on this specific case to see how they lost so much money. It always amazes me how these “super traders” go broke. I will never forget the case of LTCM *many* years ago. Their team were “the best of the best” yadee yaa yaa. The unexpected happened, and they lost trillions. The US government “bailed them out” and the issue was swept under the rug and never spoken of again.
    This was 1998’ish because I remember the price of Oil being very cheap, breaking Russia and also causing havoc in Brazil too.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

  • #210428

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Amsterdam][QUOTE=spongebob]2 billion loss! That’s what happened to the UBS trader and that was everywhere in the media. Whoops!
    [/QUOTE]

    I used to do alot of futures trading, believe me its incredibly stressful and i stopped for that very reason, too many sleepness nights and moods like you wouldnt believe. One day up 50k the next day down 30k and so on. Protecting positions and opening up new positions to gain on slower positions. And when its with your own money its a different ball game.
    These guys are trading and for an aggressive trader it is very difficult for him to immeditately change his tactics to secure and safer positions, its like war.
    What they should have done was to relieve this guy and sent him home for a 2 week break and put some other tactical traders on it, instead they allowed him to carry on. I have done this so i know, its difficult to change from agressive to safe overnight, its a different mind set.

    [/QUOTE]
    So tell us how that Enron puts and calls worked out for you financial wizard

  • #210432

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob][QUOTE=Amsterdam][QUOTE=spongebob]2 billion loss! That’s what happened to the UBS trader and that was everywhere in the media. Whoops!
    [/QUOTE]

    I used to do alot of futures trading, believe me its incredibly stressful and i stopped for that very reason, too many sleepness nights and moods like you wouldnt believe. One day up 50k the next day down 30k and so on. Protecting positions and opening up new positions to gain on slower positions. And when its with your own money its a different ball game.
    These guys are trading and for an aggressive trader it is very difficult for him to immeditately change his tactics to secure and safer positions, its like war.
    What they should have done was to relieve this guy and sent him home for a 2 week break and put some other tactical traders on it, instead they allowed him to carry on. I have done this so i know, its difficult to change from agressive to safe overnight, its a different mind set.

    [/QUOTE]
    Futures = Derivaties. People have to be careful with the leverage.
    I didn’t read up on this specific case to see how they lost so much money. It always amazes me how these “super traders” go broke. I will never forget the case of LTCM *many* years ago. Their team were “the best of the best” yadee yaa yaa. The unexpected happened, and they lost trillions. The US government “bailed them out” and the issue was swept under the rug and never spoken of again.
    This was 1998’ish because I remember the price of Oil being very cheap, breaking Russia and also causing havoc in Brazil too.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management
    [/QUOTE]

    Indeed. They get into problems by taking out huge positions then trying to claw back their losses and as their situation gets worse, they take out yet more positions to cover those positions and losses. If everything goes t1ts up they end up losing even more money.
    Like i said, this guy should have been relieved and some fresh minded traders come in to try to contain the situation. Its easy to get into that aggressive trading mindset where all your common sense goes out the window. Tunnel vision i suppose you could call it.

    Amsterdam2012-05-14 14:26:41

  • #210665

    Gilmour
    Member

    Was going to post somewhere else… more appropriate here:
    The question guys is how is that going to affect us living here? I’ve seen several cases, both technical and fundamental that support my conclusions. And sorry, I post it in the wrong thread.
    I found the chart on yahoo. BRLUSD. There’s major multi-year support around ,40. But like I said, long-term fundamentals are against it.
    Wow.. since the peak in June, it’s off by about 20% already.

  • #210667

    Gilmour
    Member

    That multi-year support is 2,20 – 2,50’ish. I think we’ll be there in the next few or so months. But in the short-term, it’s probably going to re-test the 1,75-1,90 range. I’m going to exchange a few bucks today… this morning.

  • #210690

    With the USD:BRL closing yesterday (finally) at 2.0010 yet this morning (11:30EDT) with it a pubic hair lower at 1.9999 it seems “someone” does not want it in the psychological two zone.
    Anyone want to bet a nota cem on 2.35 by July? 😉
    Gringo.Floripa2012-05-16 11:40:41

  • #210691

    Gianni
    Member

    that’s pretty hasty for 2.35 lol!

  • #210699

    agri2001
    Participant

    If Greece implodes you might get closer to 2.50 LOL

  • #210706

    jeb2886
    Member

    External pressure won’t push the Real to 2.5, or very far at all, and not very long if they do. The huge global crisis had it up at 2.4 quickly and then only briefly and it was down to 2.2 and then came way back down to 1.50’s again.
    For it to make a big change, it needs to be internal pressure. Reduced rates of return, possibility of default and/or economic problems within Brazil.
    External pressures cause quick blips but that is about it.

  • #210726

    Gilmour
    Member

    Greece has always been a problem. There’s nothing fundamentally different now or when they used the Drachma.
    jkennedy, it appears internally and externally that the cycle is turning. In 2008, Lula wasn’t trying to lower interest rates like Dilma is. Internal demand was also another factor. I’m just not seeing it like before. People seemed to be really stretched.

  • #210727

    Gilmour
    Member

    And sorry to dampen everyone’s parade, but the US said QE3is in the pipeline if anything starts to falter in the US.

  • #210742

    Gilmour
    Member

    It’s I “hope not”. when I’m watching price levels every day, it’s AMAZING how they take prices to the edge of the cliff almost every day before a new announcement. If the new announcement is bad, prices jump upward and then fall off the cliff. If the news is favourable, prices crouch down and then leap higher.
    Timothy Geitner, US Treasury loser, is going to speak tomorrow. Historically, everyone says when Geitner speaks, world equity markets drop off the cliff Big%20smile
    Well, I don’t exactly think QE3 is smart, considering that all of the gains from QE2 were taken away BEFORE the markets went back up. In other words, QE2 was a waste of trees to print the money on (You can verify this just by look at closing prices).
    I think this “rhetoric” about QE3 is just to keep the American Sheeple happy. But I wouldn’t doubt it if the Americanos want to profit from the devaluation in ALL of the other currencies for the first REALtime in 9 years.

  • #210788

    agri2001
    Participant

    Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin could be banned from ever returning to the U.S. if Senate Democrats’ bill passes

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/facebook-co-founder-eduardo-saverin-could-banned-ever-155120715.html

    Senate Democrats on Thursday unveiled a bill to punish Americans who renounce their citizenship for tax purposes, pointing specifically to Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin, who last fall withdrew his citizenship in advance of the company’s multibillion-dollar initial public offering, set to take place Friday.

    Saverin could save $67 million in tax costs after the Facebook IPO deal by dissociating himself from the United States, and the bill’s sponsors say they want to ensure that money ends up in the U.S. Treasury.

    Democratic Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Charles Schumer of New York outlined the bill Thursday. It would impose a 30 percent capital gains tax on investments within the country on anyone who renounces citizenship to avoid taxes. The bill would also ban Saverin—and others who take similar action—from ever setting foot on American soil again.

    “Eduardo Saverin wants to de-friend the United States of America,” Schumer said. “Sen. Casey and I have a status update for him: Pay your taxes in full or don’t ever try to visit the U.S. again.”

    Saverin currently lives in Singapore, which has no capital gains tax.

    Schumer estimated the bill would apply to about 3,000 people.

    “This is a small, narrow group,” he said. “And they deserve to get the treatment we’re giving them.”

    —————————————————————–

    Spongie you may not be able to go back home if they get their way.

    What a country………!!

    agri20012012-05-17 12:58:22

  • #210790

    ginaferminio
    Member

    Typical Democrats… They’re mad because someone said, “I’ll take my ball and play elsewhere, because you people want to steal more money than you’re entitled to, in any way, shape, or form.”

  • #210812

    jeb2886
    Member

    QE works, it’s just how easily are the numbers to verify. But look at the GDP of the US, it’s been growing steadily for 70 years, and basically doesn’t change based on whos in power, or who isn’t, whether there is peace or whether there isn’t.
    QE is also great for the US, they’ve been getting themselves long term debt at insanely low rates. If inflation ever kicks in, they won’t have to worry about refinancing a lot of that deb to higher rates.
    Democrats have historically closed up budgets by the time they leave office, while republicans have always created a major short fall before they leave. Democrats might spend a bit, but they match it up with income. Republicans just slash taxes for the rich and don’t cut anything else because that would under mine them. Spend more, and lower the taxes. Republicans state that they’re fiscal, when they’ve proven over the last 50 years they aren’t.
    I thought that guy from Facebook would have saved a lot more than 67M, it’s a lot of money still, but to drop citizenship over that? It’s just an example of a loophole that the rich can use, while the poor it would cost more than it’s worth. Just getting on a flight and flying to another country with their family for the average family would cost more than their entire tax bill for a year. They simply can’t leverage any of these goodies.

  • #210813

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    US taxes make me mad, but Brazilian taxes remind me things could be worse

  • #210814

    jeb2886
    Member

    Taxes are taxes. It’s only unfair when the rich can become ultra rich using the tax system as the method of doing that. Basically keeping others down, while helping them boost profits. eg the US tax system.
    Brazils system isn’t bad. There is waste, everyone pays it.
    If I gave you $1M dollars, and then said Oh yeah, you’ve got a $1M tax bill, are you better of worse off? It’s a wash. If your neighbours get the same deal, no one is better off.
    Sure the government might take a lot, but they take it from everyone else too. Your wealth isn’t bad on how much money you have, but how much MORE you have than others. You could live like a king in some small village in Brazil, or like a beggar in NYC with that same income.
    If taxes dropped, so would salaries. It’s not like a person would just pocket that money and be like WOO! I have so much extra money.
    Either inflation would kill that extra money (since it would be burning a whole in everyones pockets) or people would start accepting lower salaries, because now they’ve net/net they’re in the same situation as before, but now they have a job.
    You don’t get paid extra money in NYC because you’re a genius, you get paid it because the cost of living is so high. Drop the cost of living, and the salaries drop accordingly.
    Do drop the cost of living (taxes), and the salaries drop accordingly.
    One of the things that Brazilians don’t realize is that the majority of people don’t pay taxes, they’re just too poor. And those people also need the most assistance. Instead of having a huge population paying lots of taxes, you’ve got a small portion paying and a huge number of people that it is being redistributed to.

  • #210816

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    I’ll take the US tax system over Brazil’s any day, Brazil is considered to be the most overtaxed under served people in the world. To say that the poor do not pay taxes is absurd, the ridiculous sales taxes and other taxes built into prices are paid much more heavily by the poor than the rich (as a percent of income). andrewfroboy2012-05-17 16:46:45

  • #210817

    jeb2886
    Member

    It would probably hurt you more.
    The US system is completely broken, and allowing wealth to flow way too fast up to the ultra rich. GDP is a set number, we know what it will be next year, we can use a simple formula to back it out 50 years. It’s a KNOWN pie. It’s like saying we have $50,000 per person in the US (no matter what anyone does, what wars are started, who is in charge, what the taxes are). Every time you hear about a rich person making money, it essentially means it directly came out of someone elses pocket. Each year the average person gets less and less of their $50,000 allotment, while the rich get more and more of it.
    It makes sense too, companies are getting larger. One person can manage thousands of people with todays tools. Can you imagine walmart back in 1915? with 1M employees? Trying to manage that? It wouldn’t happen. Today, fewer and fewer people run larger and larger companies, and they take a small cut of each employees earnings.

  • #210889

    Andrewfroboy
    Participant

    Do you actually live in Brasil Jkennedy? Have you seen prices of most any manufactured thing, there are 20-40% taxes on most every manufactured good, that ends up being a flat tax of sorts that taxes the poor at higher percentages. You are living in a fantasy world if you think the Brazilian tax system works better than the US one. I don’t think either is great, but there is no doubt the US has a lighter tax burden and better services.

  • #210907

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]QE works, it’s just how easily are the numbers to verify. But look at the GDP of the US, it’s been growing steadily for 70 years, and basically doesn’t change based on whos in power, or who isn’t, whether there is peace or whether there isn’t.
    QE is also great for the US, they’ve been getting themselves long term debt at insanely low rates. If inflation ever kicks in, they won’t have to worry about refinancing a lot of that deb to higher rates.
    Democrats have historically closed up budgets by the time they leave office, while republicans have always created a major short fall before they leave. Democrats might spend a bit, but they match it up with income. Republicans just slash taxes for the rich and don’t cut anything else because that would under mine them. Spend more, and lower the taxes. Republicans state that they’re fiscal, when they’ve proven over the last 50 years they aren’t.
    I thought that guy from Facebook would have saved a lot more than 67M, it’s a lot of money still, but to drop citizenship over that? It’s just an example of a loophole that the rich can use, while the poor it would cost more than it’s worth. Just getting on a flight and flying to another country with their family for the average family would cost more than their entire tax bill for a year. They simply can’t leverage any of these goodies.
    [/QUOTE]
    jkennedy – you have been smoking an illegal substance or drinking koolaid powder from a lab. Seriously, pull up a chart anywhere, of the Nasdaq, or any other equity market in the US and likely elsewhere. Next, look when QE2 started. Then look at ANY gain that resulted. Price retraced to the EXACT point from where it started. I don’t call that “good” or “effective”.
    spongebob2012-05-18 10:13:38

  • #210908

    ginaferminio
    Member

    Mr. Kennedy, Spoken like a true Democrat. You don’t have a clue about economics or fiscal policy. Your assumption that it doesn’t matter what anyone does, who is in charge, and what taxes are is totally ludicrous. It makes a big difference if you want to see the country grow. If we hadn’t had WWII to pull us out of the Depression, the US would probably look more like Russia, from 1917-1985 when Gorbachev took office. There is no “zero sum”, where if a rich person makes more money, it’s being taken from somebody else. The money supply is totally fluid. It just means that the rich person put out more effort, or was able to take advantage of economies of scale to get a better price for buying in larger quantities. There is always the opportunity for ANYONE IN THE WORLD to better his lot in life, by going into business for himself. But that involves taking a risk, and putting out a lot of effort, which most people aren’t willing to do. They would rather piss and moan about how the rich people are getting richer, but do nothing to get something for themselves. Wealth does not flow up to the rich. They are able to make money faster, because they have more money, and can put more into investments. I know you’ve heard the old saying, “It takes money to make money.” As for the GDP, it’s not going to change a lot from year to year, unless you have something momentous happen to change the output(ie: change in production techniques/technology that makes something widely used more affordable, or you come up with a product that many, many people, the world over, have to have). On the flip side, you have an economic event that effects the US, like what has been happening for the last 3+ years. In order for GDP to go up, you have to actually produce more products. In order to do this, you have to either boost per capita productivity, or you have to increase production output, by building more production facilities. Companies are not going to boost production, if the demand for their product is not there.
    Andy, it’s obvious that jkennedy doesn’t live in Brasil, as his signature states: “…Planning my next Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started!” What surprises me is that “voter amnesia” is so widespread all over the world. People have the ability to “throw the bums out!!”, when there is an election, and they just keep voting the same thieves back in, time after time, because they conveniently(for the politicians) forget the stunts that the politician pulled earlier in his term. All they hear is what he MIGHT do for them, IF they re-elect him. I mean, how many times do you have to have your hand slapped, before you say, “Gee!! This hurts…”??
    BTW Mr. Kennedy, I lived in the States for over 55 years, so I’m fairly familiar with the problem, and people like you.DonVito2012-05-18 10:19:41

  • #210910

    Gilmour
    Member

    jkennedy/donvito – I seriously doubt “Obummer” is going to zero out the national debt before he leaves office. Obummer is not a Clinton. No way, no how.
    About the citizenship thing, Americans are too GD ignorant about life in other countries and how things really work abroad. Citizenship is a business decision nowadays. The US used to be a “top model” in the 50’s and 60’s. It’s been in decline ever since.
    Now the US looks more like this:

    spongebob2012-05-18 10:31:22

  • #210912

    ginaferminio
    Member

    Spongebob… you are one sick individual!! LOL
    The only way the “campaigner-in-chief” could even come anywhere close to doing that is to repeal everything(especially the tax hikes) he started, and lower the tax rates to Graham-Rudman levels. That would give business the push it needs to make the economy grow again.

  • #210942

    Do I smell a little panic?!? Wink
    Brazil’s Central Bank Sells all FX Swaps at Auction

    Troubled Brazil Economy Shrinks Again in March

    In July, 2.35-2.50! And tomorrow, somewhere, there will be a solar eclipse…. LOL

  • #210955

    Gianni
    Member

    GD ignorant?
    I’m not the guy in the middle of BH trading forex bucks……………. Check yourself before you get in touch with reality…

  • #210956

    [QUOTE=Gringodude]GD ignorant?
    I’m not the guy in the middle of BH trading forex bucks…..[/QUOTE]
    If I read the context correctly, Bob wasn’t referring to you, but using the name of Deity in vain.
    Speaking of BH/MG… did you feel the earth move where you are Bob?!?
    Gringo.Floripa2012-05-19 13:50:52

  • #210963

    ginaferminio
    Member

    Frank, let me ask you a question. How often do you(not you personally) have to be smacked in the head with a brick, before you say “Gee, that hurts!!”? I can understand returning a person to office in the House of Representatives, as they only have a 2-year term. But you have people, who have been there for years, and done virtually nothing.(I point to Debbie Stabenow from Michigan in the US Senate, who has been there for almost 12 years, and has not authored even one substantial piece of legislation!! I’m from Michigan) The only reason she’s still in the US Senate is because there are a lot of auto workers who vote Democratic regardless. But it appears that even they are wising up somewhat.
    “Me personally I am here in Brasil. I thinking that I may simply buy a property and life outside for a while a the wife.” What were you trying to say with that last part?

  • #210968

    celso
    Member

    The situation in Brazil has changed. Commodity prices are down bigtime. Dilma is demanding lower interest rates. Brazil has big inflation and negative economic growth. Real is headed to three to the dollar as investors flee. Bubble? Just the same old boom and bust commodity economy of Brazil.

  • #211374

    Greek Exit Could Trigger a Run on European Banks
    Gentlemen (and ladies), start your engines….
    This could result in a 3.0 finish line! (USD:BRL)
    Gringo.Floripa2012-05-24 19:19:31

  • #211391

    Never say never, or doubt what couldhappen….
    A run on European banks (bank runs have certainly happened before, many times, in many countries), will be far more ‘influential’ than the fears some 10 years ago of a supposed ‘Socialist’ president taking office in Brasilia.

    Gringo.Floripa2012-05-24 21:46:44

  • #211396

    jeb2886
    Member

    The only people who would take out their money from the banks would be the people who wouldn’t want a “new” currency. Hence, they trust the euro and would rather hold onto that. With good reason, any new currency would bit hit instantly with inflation to try and “eat away” the debt quickly.
    A socialist president in Brazil is far more scary for the Real, than some small country in Europe, switching currencies and causing runs on banks. They can print more money (changing digital money to hard currency) it just takes time. The government could temporarily allow banks to over leverage themselves to cover the lost savings.
    Germans aren’t going to go do a run on their banks. They enjoy the currency. Same with French and others. The only ones worried about it are the ones who might lose access to it, which are a fairly small minority.

  • #211406

    agri2001
    Participant

    I would not call the folks in Spain a small minority.
    Should they go the way of Greece all bets are off.

  • #211413

    [QUOTE=agri2001]I would not call the folks in Spain a small minority.
    Should they go the way of Greece all bets are off.
    [/QUOTE]
    And it looks like they are not too far….
    The below is lifted from zerohedge.com

    • Bank Of Spain Formally Nationalizes Bankia, Says Insolvent Bank Is “Solvent”, Adds There Is No Cause For Concern, Zero Hedge, May 9
    • Spain is taking over Bankia by converting its 4.5 billion euros of preferred shares in the group‚Äôs parent company into ordinary shares, BusinessWeek, May 21
    • Spain said on Wednesday its rescue of problem lender Bankia would cost at least 9 billion euros ($11 billion), as the government tries to clean up a banking system that threatens to drag the country deeper into the euro zone crisis, Reuters, May 23
    • Bankia SA will have to ask the Spanish government for more than 15 billion euros as part of its effort to restore its financial health, state-owned news agency EFE reported Thursday, citing financial sources, Dow Jones, May 24

    Hopefully we aren’t the only ones to notice how the bailout cost has oddly doubled almost on a daily basis.
    @JK: Bank runs are usually when people no longer trust a bank, not a specific currency. Seems to me that there’s due cause for significant distrust.

  • #211430

    graham
    Participant

    Bankia bailout due to loan defaults…

  • #211469

    doctorlili
    Member

    Well, we are dipping the last 2 days, sad to say. And if you look at the EURBRL you see a veritable plunge.
    https://www.google.com/finance?q=CURRENCY%3AEURBRL&hl=en
    JPY and USD only slight leveling. INR drops like EUR.
    So who is rising and who is falling here? In EURUSD the USD is still heading down in value. Hmm

  • #211485

    Gilmour
    Member

    No, the EURUSD has been dropping, along with the Real and the other commodity currencies. This big downfall started a few week ago, and has pretty much progressed unabated. There are a few other pairs that show some strength, but in a crisis situation, they will eventually fall as well.
    I think this is tied to the very long-term cycle. So maaaaany years have passed that the dollar was weak. Eventually countries like Brazil started taxing inflows of foreign funds. Consumer demand has fallen very low. Everyone in the business community here (except exporters) have been saying that that are seeing the numbers drop.
    It’s funny how I said ON THIS SITE a couple of weeks ago, how demand for new cars has fallen off the cliff. Then the Brazilian government lowered the IPI. I think this is a good example of why you save during the great time to be able to buy when things are cheaper.

  • #211505

    celso
    Member

    Europe is in a recession. Not buying much crap from China. China slower growth on lower exports to USA and Europe sending commodity prices lower. Lower commodity prices means fewer dollars entering Brazil. Real goes down as Dilma demands lower interest rates. Europe must devalue Euro to save Greece, Italy Spain and France. So Euro falls to parity with dollar. Great for Euro exports and jobs. Dilma demands cheaper Real to help exports so Real goes to 2.7 to 3.0. No problem. Good for Brazil as fewer Brazzers buy condos in Miami. Brazil can export manufactured goods, cars, etc to neighbors. More jobs for workers. Dilma is of the workers Party.

  • #211507

    graham
    Participant

    GBoF: Finally someone says something on this thread that might actually make sense.

  • #211509

    agri2001
    Participant

    Hooray for Dilma..!Tongue

  • #211510

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] Europe is in a recession. Not buying much crap from China. China slower growth on lower exports to USA and Europe sending commodity prices lower. Lower commodity prices means fewer dollars entering Brazil. Real goes down as Dilma demands lower interest rates.

     

    Europe must devalue Euro to save Greece, Italy Spain and France. So Euro falls to parity with dollar. Great for Euro exports and jobs.

     

    Dilma demands cheaper Real to help exports so Real goes to 2.7 to 3.0. No problem. Good for Brazil as fewer Brazzers buy condos in Miami. Brazil can export manufactured goods, cars, etc to neighbors. More jobs for workers. Dilma is of the workers Party.

    [/QUOTE]
    If the euro goes, so will the real!

  • #211511

    doctorlili
    Member

    OK, I had confused myself. The USD gained against the BRL and the EUR. But who knows whether the BRL is now again gaining in strength or if the last 2 days were just a little setback on the way.Squiddie2012-05-26 13:50:51

  • #211512

    jeb2886
    Member

    Europe is still buying plenty of crap from China. It’s like saying last month we sold them $100, this month it’s $99, $1 difference, next month we sold them $98, $2 difference, but 100%!!!!!!!!!!!!! drop month over month! If this trend continues for 6 more months, they won’t buying a single thing! Doubling month over month like that! Ack! Within a year, we’ll be be like $2000/month negative in sales every month!
    China produces a lot of disposable goods, items that are used and thrown out, which need replacing. Some goods won’t be replaced, but the majority will. The key is the majority will still be purchased. The majority of the goods are necessary. The majority of the people in Europe are still employed, those people tend to spend the same amount. Tally up the entire European population, and you’ll find that the majority are still employed. Even if only 80% are employed, that means 80% are still buying the same goods.
    The small numbers definitely have large impacts, but to think Europe goes down hill and it takes the Real is a little extreme. The debt in Brazil is far scarier, especially at the rates they are paying. Regardless of growth, the interest will do all the damage.

  • #211520

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001]Hooray for Dilma..!Tongue[/QUOTE] Yes, Dilma has the head of the Banco Central in her hand. She is demanding lower interest rates. The hot money of Europe and the world that was making big coin buying high intereswt rate Brazilian bonds then riding the tidal wave of the srong real on the commodities rally is over. Things are now going the other direction. Hot money is leaving Brazil seeking a safer harbor. Look at Petrobras stock hitting new lows. CSN as well. Yes, I was in Spain last December. In Madrid the electrinic shop with stuff from China was empty. Nobody buying stuff. Help from Dilma is a bit dangerous. The PT dominates the gov with no real opposition. If they swing more to the left, which is a real possibility, they could start re nationalizing companies and grab foreighn owned assets. Why do you think all foreign residents must declare all assets as Brazilian assets abroad?

  • #211522

    jeb2886
    Member

    Nationalizing would basically happen once, and then it would be all over. The government would be replaced on the next election. As soon as you nationalize the first company, all investors flee at once. No one will want to deal with you after that. The government knows this, only a desperate country does this, and it’s usually with something that was a rip off to start with. Some commodity that was given away for some pittance. Even then, the backlash is huge. People will cheer it, until a few months later when the repercussions start showing up.
    So if you go into the most ghetto areas, backwater cities of Brazil, you can claim that mercedes just aren’t selling in Brazil anywhere, it’s a doomed industry. Going to Spain, and then saying no one is buying electronics is completely mis leading. Isn’t spain one of the places with some issues right now? Shouldn’t you be looking at the majority, say.. look at Germany and check out their electronics business? Where you in an area that normally does a lot of electronics? Where you present during the times they normally do business, and compared with previous years, how busy were they then too? How about all the other little gadgets China puts out. The things that fill up many markets, the $1-$25 items.

  • #211528

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Nationalizing would basically happen once, and then it would be all over. The government would be replaced on the next election. As soon as you nationalize the first company, all investors flee at once. No one will want to deal with you after that. The government knows this, only a desperate country does this, and it’s usually with something that was a rip off to start with. Some commodity that was given away for some pittance. Even then, the backlash is huge. People will cheer it, until a few months later when the repercussions start showing up.

    So if you go into the most ghetto areas, backwater cities of Brazil, you can claim that mercedes just aren’t selling in Brazil anywhere, it’s a doomed industry. Going to Spain, and then saying no one is buying electronics is completely mis leading. Isn’t spain one of the places with some issues right now? Shouldn’t you be looking at the majority, say.. look at Germany and check out their electronics business? Where you in an area that normally does a lot of electronics? Where you present during the times they normally do business, and compared with previous years, how busy were they then too? How about all the other little gadgets China puts out. The things that fill up many markets, the $1-$25 items.

    [/QUOTE] No you are wrong. Nationalizing can take a very long time. In Argentina Cristina Kirchner just nationalized YPF and took it away from Repsol, with a vote of the Congress and the stroke of a pen. In Brazil Petrobras is a natioanlized oil company with a minority private shareholder stake. The Gov sets the price of gas at the pump, not Petrobras. That’s why gas costs seven dollars a gallon. Life goes on. The people in Brazil have voted in a red socialist government and there is a real risk of the gov shifting farther to the left. Every other word out of Dilma’s mouth is “redistribuir renda,” (redistibute wealth). My point about the empty electronis shop in Spain has to do with the real slowdown in Europe which is causing a drop in Cinese exports, leads to a drop in China demand for commodities, so Brazil gets fewer dollars for same amount of goods sold and this causes a weaker real. Dilma forcing the Selic down sends the hot money away and the real goes lower.

  • #211529

    doctorlili
    Member

    Wow, nationalization could mean that when we buy property as foreigners, they might take it all away?

  • #211530

    jeb2886
    Member

    I understand what you’re saying as the drop in exports, but china exports all over the world now. The majority of europe still has a job, so yeah a place like spain that might have 25% unemployment has 75% employed, and still buying up a lot of crap. The chinese has an internal market, and they’re complaining of slowing growth. So even if they went to 0 tomorrow, they’re still in need of imports, it just means no growth. Even negative growth, still means most of what they’re producing is still being produced.
    I bet Argentina starts feeling some pain though, people will start pulling out their money, worried it might happen to them.
    I suspect that what will cause problems is the interest+debt in the future. Brazil needs to keep spending this money. If they can’t get more of it, then they might start getting desperate. It won’t be from an outside source, which might impact a very small amount of their market. Even if europe drops their imports, china will find a way to consume them internally to partially offset declining productivity, and then brazil will do the same, and finally companies will cut back a bit.

  • #211543

    celso
    Member

    Great job Guido Mantega. The banks in Brazil are raping the country. You and Dilma force interest rates down 40% from present levels and the Real is at three to the dollar! I agree 100% with what you are doing as the Real should be at three to the dollar or lower to encourage jobs, trade and reduce the custo Brasil. 26/05/201218h00

    Mantega dá um m√™s para bancos reduzirem juros em at√© 40%

    Publicidade

    FÁBIO BRANDT
    DE BRASÍLIA

    O ministro da Fazenda, Guido Mantega, deu um m√™s para bancos privados reduzirem suas taxas de juros mais altas. A queda esperada, segundo ele, √© de 30% a 40%. O ministro prometeu fiscalizar os bancos para que a redu√ßão dos juros não seja compensada com aumento das tarifas dos servi√ßos.

    Leia a transcri√ßão da entrevista com o ministro Guido Mantega

    “Se os bancos privados reduzirem 30%, 40% e aumentarem o volume, 30%, 40%, já estarão prestando um servi√ßo √† economia brasileira. A nossa inten√ßão √© ter um acompanhamento semanal dessa história. E eu vou cobrar”, afirmou o ministro.

    Mantega falou sobre o assunto no “Poder e Política”, projeto do UOL e da Folhaconduzido pelo jornalista. A entrevista foi gravada no Minist√©rio da Fazenda, em Brasília, no dia 24 de maio. Tamb√©m participou como entrevistador Valdo Cruz, repórter da Folha.

    Trechos da entrevista com Guido Mantega – 14 vídeos

    Mantega dá 1 m√™s para bancos cortarem juros de 30% a 40%

    Segundo ministro da Fazenda, governo está dando condi√ß√µes para institui√ß√µes fazerem mudan√ßas. Ele falou ao UOL e √† Folha em 24 de maio de 2012.

    • Mantega%20d%E1%201%20m%EAs%20para%20bancos%20cortarem%20juros%20de%2030%25%20a%2040%25
    • Governo%20fiscalizar%E1%20bancos%20para%20tarifas%20n%E3o%20subirem
    • Fam%EDlias%20brasileiras%20ainda%20t%EAm%20baixo%20endividamento
    • Governo%20ajudar%E1%20a%20negociar%20d%EDvidas%20de%20at%E9%20R%24100%20mil
    • Mesmo%20com%20crise%2C%20PIB%20crescer%E1%20de%203%2C5%25%20a%204%25%20em%202012
    • Eu%20sou%20mesmo%20levantador%20de%20PIB
    • Mantega%20quer%20um%20novo%20IGP%20para%20incluir%20s%F3%20valores%20brasileiros
    • D%F3lar%20a%20R%24%202%20tem%20pouco%20impacto%20sobre%20infla%E7%E3o
    • %C9%20invi%E1vel%20exigir%20carro%20limpo%20de%20montadoras%20agora
    • Crise%20ser%E1%20pior%20se%20Gr%E9cia%20sair%20do%20Euro%20sem%20controle
    • Dilma%20tem%20vantagem%20por%20ter%20aprendido%20com%20Lula
    • Imita%E7%E3o%20de%20Dilma%20tem%20baixaria%2C%20mas%20%E9%20bem%20humorada%20
    • Quem%20%E9%20Guido%20Mantega%3F
    • %CDntegra%20da%20entrevista%2C%2031%20min.

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    Na entrevista, o ministro disse que o governo está pensando em um modo de ajudar devedores inadimplentes de at√© R$ 100 mil a quitarem suas dívidas com os bancos. A estrat√©gia envolveria facilitar o pagamento dos impostos que as institui√ß√µes de cr√©dito devem pagar ao receber as quantias dos devedores.

    Mantega afirmou que o PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) do Brasil crescerá de 3,5% a 4% neste ano mesmo com a crise. O n√∫mero √© otimista comparado a algumas proje√ß√µes que estimam alta de só 3%.

    Guido Mantega em entrevista ao Poder e Política

    Ver em tamanho maior »

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    O ministro da Fazenda, Guido Mantega, participa do programa “Poder e Política – Entrevista”, conduzido pelo jornalista Fernando Rodrigues Leia mais

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    GreatBallsoFire2012-05-26 19:09:17

  • #211586

    Anonymous

    [QUOTE=spongebob] No, the EURUSD has been dropping, along with the Real and the other commodity currencies. This big downfall started a few week ago, and has pretty much progressed unabated. There are a few other pairs that show some strength, but in a crisis situation, they will eventually fall as well. I think this is tied to the very long-term cycle. So maaaaany years have passed that the dollar was weak. Eventually countries like Brazil started taxing inflows of foreign funds. Consumer demand has fallen very low. Everyone in the business community here (except exporters) have been saying that that are seeing the numbers drop. It’s funny how I said ON THIS SITE a couple of weeks ago, how demand for new cars has fallen off the cliff. Then the Brazilian government lowered the IPI. I think this is a good example of why you save during the great time to be able to buy when things are cheaper.
    [/QUOTE]
    Agree with you and GBoF completely on your respective analysis
    Brazil, near term, has priced itself out of the market
    If the situation in Greece or Spain gets uglier, there is a potential of a disorderly run on their banks
    Spanish banks, esp, have been a strong source of FDIs into Brazil
    So has Europe
    As money is kept home to recapitalize banks and shore up reserves, these banks are selling off assets in LatinAmerica, and will slow down their investments
    already happening – Spain’s Banco Santander selling 40% of its Brazilian assets to raise capital
    http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/economia,santander-negocia-venda-de-fatia-no-pais,113803,0.htm
    Europe dominates FDI into Brazil
    http://brazilianbubble.com/chart-europe-dominates-fdi-into-brazil-beware-of-spanish-crisis-contagion/
    Just fresh from the Globe & Mail:
    They’ve got an awful lot of worries in Brazil
    BRIAN MILNER FROM MONDAY’S GLOBE AND MAIL
    Last updated Sunday, May. 27, 2012 7:20PM EDT
    …In effect, it‚Äôs the last nail in the coffin for the BRICs as an investment theme, which should have been buried long ago anyway.
    The idea of lumping together the largest emerging countries made for a catchy marketing ploy. But it never made much sense, given their widely different economies, prospects, institutional issues and political structures, as more than a few observers of the developing world have long pointed out. Russia is all about oil, gas and oligarchic muscle;
    India is still more a swamp than lush paradise for foreign money; and Brazil, in the view of one critic, “is the un-China, with interest rates that are too high and a currency that is too expensive.”

    In the immortal words of Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards, BRIC ought to stand for “Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept.”
    http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/theyve-got-an-awful-lot-of-worries-in-brazil/article2444770/?service=mobile
    From my POV, watching daily flow of funds, I think the tide has turned on a decade long trend
    Few trends, esp based on commodities, manage to last for 20 years. Most are a decade, and the decade is up
    This is not a tragedy. In my life span I’ve seen several booms and busts in Brazil, as I have in NYC and LA, and frankly, I like these places better after the boom. They calm down, tensions decrease, prices become more human
    its all a cycle, no need to fight it. As SB said, save up money during the boom years, to buy cheap during the bust years…thats how the smart money does it, anyway
    digiwench2012-05-27 19:41:08

  • #211587

    doctorlili
    Member

    What do you guys thing about the near term development of real estate prices? I have been scanning the shore line with Google earth looking for nice terrenos hillside with beach views and I noticed a lot of subdivision activity up and down the coastline around Ubatuba. There seem to be lots of streets laid out with small 800 m2 lost, but not yet sold. Have they overdone it?

  • #211601

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=digiwench]
    From my POV, watching daily flow of funds, I think the tide has turned on a decade long trend
    [/QUOTE]
    That’s exactly my observation. It sounds a little scary at first for those who live here, but if you look at the “crisis” times here, it seems like they weren’t like the great depression. I would rather be in Brazil during a crisis than a small European country that has to import everything.
    BUT we’ll have to see how it plays out. Everyone here has noticed a down-tick in sales, [[ except the exporters]].
    Whoever talked about asset confiscation, this is not the US and their “Civil Forfeiture”. That is appalling! But for safety sake, I do everything in my kids’ name. I got that idea from many other Brazilians. I’m not Brazilian, yet.

  • #211606

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]What do you guys thing about the near term development of real estate prices? I have been scanning the shore line with Google earth looking for nice terrenos hillside with beach views and I noticed a lot of subdivision activity up and down the coastline around Ubatuba.[/QUOTE]
    I assume you’re talking about Ubatuba-SP and and not Ubatuba-SC, which is near Joinville. If so, I only know that Itamambuca and Praia Felix are excellent beaches for surfing at UbaSP, but know nothing about the RE market there. I think it’s hard to make a general statement about ‘near term’ RE prices in Brasil, because we have anomalies like Rio and Sampa, which disproportionately tip the scale for RE values. Even towns like Florianopolis and Curitiba tip it too. But there are still bargains to be found elsewhere in the country!
    If you scan Google Earth a bit further south to SC, then just south of Floripa, and zoom in on the beaches north and south of a town called Imbituba (mostly the beaches south) then I think you’ll find some stretches of coastline that are still very reasonable in price! There’s also some incredibly scenic land (LARGE parcels) with hillside elevations on the other side of Lagoa Mirim (southwest of Imbituba), meaning you have amazing views of both the lagoa, and the ocean in the distance. As the BR101 nears completion of it’s renovation in this region, to reach Floripa is 2hrs, or less.
    I’ve posted in other threads, I believe this area is a sleeping giant, about to awaken….
    Now, back on topic….

    Bankia’s Writedowns Cast Doubt on Spain’s Bank Estimates


    Spain Considers Injecting Debt Rather Than Cash into Bankia


    Switzerland May Set Capital Controls if Euro Collapses


    European Firms Plan for Greek Unrest and Euro Exit

    I think it’s obvious there will be riots in the streets in Greece. With Summer being just around the corner, it will be more significant how the (vast) unemployed youth in Spain (+/- 50%) respond/react to no jobs. Riots there could be an indicator of woeful days (deep recession/depression) coming to Europe, and even possibly the Euro….
    Meanwhile, the PT has yet to learn the lesson from other countries, that an economy based on spend-spend-spend consumerism is a rua sem saida….

  • #211998

    celso
    Member

    Big news today calling into doubt China growth numbers. Prediction of Spain leaving the Euro, Greece is not the issue. So Real goes to three to the dollar on commodities slide, Eurozone collapse, China slow down. NiceCheck out Petrobras at new lows and heading lower. Central Bank pushes interest rates lower yet gov floods Brazil with money via BNDES loans. Inflation is real in Brazil. No tax reform which could save the country.Confused

  • #212000

    jeb2886
    Member

    Do you look at the markets even? Commodities are essentially neutrual today. Copper is a good indicator and has a high beta value, so it moves quickly. Right now it’s just hanging in there.
    Rig/Do and other drillers are hanging in there. PBR is down 2%, but trying to link everything together like that?
    Dow down 247 points

    28.34 -0.11 -0.38%

    32.13 +0.09 +0.28%
    10.45 -0.03 -0.29%
    19.11 -0.46 -2.33%
    40.70 -0.13 -0.32%
  • #212004

    celso
    Member

    When Guido guarantees lower interest rates, Real falls as the hot money leaves. He is not only the Finance Minister, he is Chairman of Petrobras and he likes the national content laws that are bleeding Petrobras. No tax reform as PBR is losing money due to high taxes at seven dollars a gallon in Brazil. Of course he is a redshirt of the PT. Petrobras gets most financing via BNDES loans that cause inflation as a backdoor money supply flood.WinkOther timebomb is the huge expense of cushy retirements of gov workers. Brazil spends heavily on retirement even with a young population. No fear just inflation and a new currency. Same story as always. Brazil, the de-industrialized commodity producer, China’s little monkey/dumping ground carries on. Walk into a bicycle shop and 99% of the stuff is made in China. China buys iron ore and sells trinkets including cars to BRazil. Yes, Brazil and China are linked bigtime with the price of commodities and when China coughs, Brazil sneezes.OuchDon’t you notice the Brazzers with the huge suitcases returning from Florida? Stories about Paulistas who have everything in the house bought abroad because prices in Brazil are double/triple. Real is set for a big fall. Mantega garante que juros continuarão a cair
    Agência Estado

    O ministro da Fazenda, Guido Mantega, disse nesta sexta-feira que as taxas de juros da economia brasileira vão continuar caindo. “Eu garanto isso”, disse Mantega, durante entrevista coletiva em que comentou a varia√ßão do PIB no primeiro trimestre de 2012.

    O ministro disse ainda que o governo vai continuar a estimular os investimentos no País. “Hoje voc√™ já pode comprar máquinas a juro real próximo de zero. Isso √© resultado de medidas que o governo vem adotando. O governo tem todo o interesse que o investimento retorne ao patamar de 2010”. Segundo ele, os investimentos no País tem estado próximo de 20% e isso se deve aos estímulos que o governo tem dado √† economia brasileira.

    Perguntado se não falta ao empresário brasileiro o chamado “espírito animal”, já que aos primeiros sinais de crise ele reduz o investimento, Mantega disse que não. “Eu me re√∫no quase diariamente com os empresários e não vejo que falte neles o ‘espírito animal'”, afirmou o ministro, acrescentando que √© natural os empresários se tornarem mais cautelosos em momentos em que a taxa de crescimento √© menor.

    Da parte do governo, Mantega ressaltou que há cobran√ßa para que os empresários não diminuam investimentos. “Por exemplo, o √∫ltimo incentivo que nós demos foi para o setor de veículos, mas já tínhamos dado incentivo para o setor de linha branca e sempre cobramos como contrapartida a continuidade do investimento”, disse o ministro.

    Ele avalia que medidas como essas não podem ser consideradas a√ß√µes de protecionismo, mas de defesa da ind√∫stria nacional. Segundo ele, as medidas foram tomadas porque países “adotaram medidas como manipula√ßão cambial, e o que fizemos foi defender o setor automotivo de subsídios disfar√ßados”.

    Segundo o ministro, o País não pode esperar que Organiza√ßão Mundial do Com√©rcio (OMC) tome alguma decisão, o que justifica a ado√ßão das medidas em maio. Mantega reiterou que a maior preocupa√ßão do governo quanto ao cr√©dito √© o spread cobrado pelos bancos privados” que se comprometeram a ter uma atitude menos restritiva”.
    AVALIAÇÃO: 0 voto Imprimir Enviar  Fale com a reda

    GreatBallsoFire2012-06-01 16:59:51

  • #212014

    [QUOTE=frank4000]what is the rate of inflation right now?[/QUOTE]
    I measure the rate of inflation in Brasil by the price of dog food (15 kilo sack). Right now, it seems to be holding steady (or did my supplier simply buy a huge truck load?).
    Yet aside from internal economic issues in Brasil, to get the povoto spend, spend, spend (themselves into debt) the present movement in the forex is a combo of China, Eurozone, and US not-so-good news.
    Perhaps this articlewill be of interest….

  • #212015

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]

    Don’t you notice the Brazzers with the huge suitcases returning from Florida? Stories about Paulistas who have everything in the house bought abroad because prices in Brazil are double/triple. Real is set for a big fall.
    [/QUOTE]
    Some ‘indigenous’ friends have informed me that the way they get around this absurd 7% PT tax on anything they use their BR-bank issued credit card to buy things abroad, is to plop a wad of cash (reais) onto an AmericanExpress-issued debit card (which they purchase in Brasil), which has no fee, and then they just use that for their purchases in the US (or Europe). I’m sure Visa and Master have the same thing.
    This articleis a couple of months old, but it confirms what GBoF stated. I’ve read numerous other articles which credit Brazilians for single-handedly turning the depressed RE market around in S. Fla, particularly Miami!

    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-01 21:24:19

  • #212016

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Do you look at the markets even? Commodities are essentially neutrual today. Copper is a good indicator and has a high beta value, so it moves quickly. Right now it’s just hanging in there.[/QUOTE]
    It appears that copper was also “hanging in there”, just prior to a melt-down not too long ago….

    EDIT: Source of chart is London Metal Exchange
    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-01 21:41:11

  • #212021

    jeb2886
    Member

    totally, copper has fallen long before this.
    But you were pointing out how the euro and other items were causing commodities to fall today. They didn’t, the market fell pretty badly and commodities hung in there.

  • #212049

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=Squiddie]Wow, nationalization could mean that when we buy property as foreigners, they might take it all away?[/QUOTE]

    I think Gringorude is flying his Brazilian flag at half mast on this one. lol

    Amsterdam2012-06-02 12:08:57

  • #212051

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]

    Help from Dilma is a bit dangerous. The PT dominates the gov with no real opposition. If they swing more to the left, which is a real possibility, they could start re nationalizing companies and grab foreighn owned assets. Why do you think all foreign residents must declare all assets as Brazilian assets abroad?

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the true danger signs will come when she starts investing more in the military. The military police are getting alot of new shiney toys to play with here and the RFP all driving around clamping down on jay walkers and people looking in the wrong direction whilst driving along minding their own business.
    And the Governor wants more police on the streets, who will only set up more roadblocks for extra tax collection duties, cus the crime levels here have been rising steadily ever since he came to office and road blocks achieve nothing according to afew locals that i have spoken with.
    Brazil is a huge and diverse country though and the political aspirations appear to be a little contradictary if you think she is moving towards extremist socialism quasi communism. Her intention is obviously to help people get easier access to borrowing, well thats not an extremist socialist agenda, i wouldnt have thought, they want everyone on benefits and or working for the government.
    Brazils wealth has been very unfairy distrubuted, so she has a point. Up here in the north this was a problem i had encountered when i first arrived here and people used it to entrap you in deals. All the big deals were controlled by a handful of people (mafia basically) who were all friends. So you were immediatley up against it. Now i am dealing with people who have gained their money in the last 6 years or so.
    Some one told me or i read somewhere that something like, if i remember correctly, 80% of Brazils wealth was controlled by 10% of the population, thats pretty unbalanced and it was very prevailant up here in the northeast until a couple of years ago. Now we can see smaller (status/class) people making money and investing in their lives. The politicians are still stealing though and holding back on public payments.
    You know the politicians who are known as Noble people in the eyes of the law…haha
    Jesus christ and i thought the Sheriff of Nottingham was all a thing of the past until i moved here.
    Xenophobia though is very much part of a nationalistic marxist extremist socialist fascist agenda though and Lula was always mentioning foreigners this and that in his speeches. Many people living in the european sector wont feel this so much i wouldnt have thought.
    Your posts are very interesting though, you are obviously quite on the Ball, sorry for the pun. Wink

    Amsterdam2012-06-02 16:10:04

  • #212060

    Gilmour
    Member

    I just keep getting the feeling that Brazilians are tapped out. Cars aren’t selling. Nobody in the pra√ßa has any good news to tell me. Real estate is still pricey. Some people say it’s jitters from Euro crisis, but I think it’s longer-term.
    Caixa approved my big a$$ loan, but I don’t want to be saddled with huge payments; I’ll just pay cash. What I wouldn’t mind getting are some loans for rural property. Does anyone have any experience in this department?

  • #212061

    Gilmour
    Member

    Amsterday, IMHO, politicians here are too preoccupied with lining their pockets than pursuing Marxist ideals. Lula did that to try to distance himself from the outside crises, especially in the US in 2008 and 2010. I don’t really blame him.
    Xenaphobia – I could be wrong, but I don’t really think that with Brazil. It’s their country, so of course, Brazilians are always preferred. I think that’s the same everywhere though. Some Brazilian laws, especially the ones that deal with foreigners, locals, and deportation rules are much more “sensible” than the laws in the US, for example.

  • #212063

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]Xenaphobia – I could be wrong, but I don’t really think that with Brazil. It’s their country, so of course, Brazilians are always preferred. I think that’s the same everywhere though. Some Brazilian laws, especially the ones that deal with foreigners, locals, and deportation rules are much more “sensible” than the laws in the US, for example.
    [/QUOTE]

    You live in Sao (europe) Paulo right Spongey?
    Its their country so they are preferred? Meaning?
    So Xenophobia is just normal is it? Compared to what or where? Of course not, Xenophobia is an ignorance thing. I am talking about the people aswell. Your example was what? So they bring in knew laws to make it more difficult for foreigners here.
    When i first arrived here, i could drive with my UK driving licence, they kindly changed it so that i could no longer drive with my licence. Gee, that was nice of them wasnt it, i have been driving since i was 17 years old and now i have to take my Aryton Senna driving test all over again in the school of xenophobia.
    Sensible, like Foreigners without residency cannot open bank accounts, even though they can buy property here and have a car, haha, you call that sensible.
    Heres another great Brazilian sensible law. You own the pavement/sidewalk outside your house, so if you want it to be a meter and a half high or piled with sand or debris or actually build on it as i have seen, then thats your business, haha
    Do you understand anything of the politics or political corruption in Brazil? well look into it, it is a million miles from sensible.
    Their favourite Tv show is Chaves, about a million years old and almost as retarded, Yesss, i rest my case.

    Amsterdam2012-06-02 19:52:06

  • #212085

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    Caixa approved my big a$$ loan, but I don’t want to be saddled with huge payments; I’ll just pay cash. What I wouldn’t mind getting are some loans for rural property. Does anyone have any experience in this department?[/QUOTE]
    Just curious Bob, but what’s the interest rate on this big a$$ loan Caixa approved for you? (the annual rate, not the deceiving monthly rate, which is always advertised)
    As far as financing rural property, is there some sort of rural development bank in MG? If so, AFIK, they probably won’t help you with financing the actual purchase of the property, but can loan you money to help get the land productive/improved. These loans are usually a lower interest rate than what one would pay for a standard mortgage.
    Also, keep this in mind… since you’re still waiting on your naturalization, there will be federal rules as to the size you’re permitted to buy as a foreigner (even with perm. residency), and also possibly rules in the local municípiowhere the land is located. You need to find out the max number of ‘modules’ you’re permitted to purchase, in both instances, as well as the size of a module in your region.
    Probably the same where you are, but here in SC a module is 20 hectares, and the max a foreigner (w/perm. rez) can buy, withoutINCRA approval is 4 modules (so 80 hectares). Even with INCRA approval (which is most certainly a real PITA), there’s still a size restriction for non-citizens. Yet the municipal limit could actually be less. Also, while still just a perm. resident, you will only be able to make ONE rural purchase, so choose carefully. But once you become naturalized, you can become a land baron, and just sit on the porch of the ‘big house’, drinking caipirinhas…. (the Brasilian equivalent of Mint Juleps) LOL
    EDIT: Found a rural development bank for you there in Minas: BDMG
    EDIT #2: Back on topic…. Three Months to Save the Euro: George Soros
    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-03 08:40:19

  • #212108

    ginaferminio
    Member

    Frank, not to nit-pick, but did you mean “Keynesian”, as in the economist?

  • #212109

    Gianni
    Member

    hahaha certainly he must have! No biggie!

  • #212122

    ginaferminio
    Member

    I kinda figured that… Tem um boa noite!

  • #212128

    Whether Mr Soros is ‘Kinseian’, ‘Keynesian’, or ‘Klingon’, I think in considering his comments in the article where he stated, “We are at an inflection point…” (as to the continued health and survival of the Euro), we need to refresh our memory of his (alleged) role in the collapse of the Thai Baht, and the Asian economic crisis of 1997….
    What does George know that we don’t?! Wink

  • #212142

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Whether Mr Soros is ‘Kinseian’, ‘Keynesian’, or ‘Klingon’, I think in considering his comments in the article where he stated, “We are at an inflection point…” (as to the continued health and survival of the Euro), we need to refresh our memory of his (alleged) role in the collapse of the Thai Baht, and the Asian economic crisis of 1997….

    What does George know that we don’t?! Wink

    [/QUOTE] Having been to Spain recently and seeing first hand the crisis it is clear that Spain will leave the Euro, many banks will fall, as they bought the Real and played the Brazil hype, they will be forced out and the Real will fall bigtime as the global slowdown pushes down commodity prices…George knows that the only way out for Europe is to print money to make it cheap to go there so jobs are created. The Euro started out sub at one to the dollar, went to 86 cents and will return to the one parity and below to stimulate trade. Then you will want to buy your BMW 30% cheaper…

  • #212290

    Gilmour
    Member

    GBoF, ha! You already know how the Brazilian government will react if suddenly BMW’s are cheaper: they will increase the IPI on imported cars, naturally!!

  • #212291

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] Just curious Bob, but what’s the interest rate on this big a$$ loan Caixa approved for you? (the annual rate, not the deceiving monthly rate, which is always advertised)As far as financing rural property, is there some sort of rural development bank in MG?¬† If so, AFIK, they probably won’t help you with financing the actual purchase of the property, but can loan you money to help get the land productive/improved.¬† These loans are usually a lower interest rate than what one would pay for a standard mortgage.Also, keep this in mind… since you’re still waiting on your naturalization, there will be federal rules as to the size you’re permitted to buy as a foreigner (even with perm. residency), and also possibly rules in the local municípiowhere the land is located.¬† You need to find out the max number of ‘modules’ you’re permitted to purchase, in both instances, as well as the size of a module in your region.Probably the same where you are, but here in SC a module is 20 hectares, and the max a foreigner (w/perm. rez) can buy, withoutINCRA approval is 4 modules (so 80 hectares).¬† Even with INCRA approval (which is most certainly a real PITA), there’s still a size restriction for non-citizens.¬† Yet the municipal limit could actually be less.¬† Also, while still just a perm. resident, you will only be able to make ONE rural purchase, so choose carefully.¬† But once you become naturalized, you can become a land baron, and just sit on the porch of the ‘big house’, drinking caipirinhas…. (the Brasilian equivalent of Mint Juleps)¬† LOLEDIT:¬† Found a rural development bank for you there in Minas:¬† BDMGEDIT #2:¬† Back on topic….¬† Three Months to Save the Euro: George Soros
    [/QUOTE]
    You know, I was a dummy for not asking what the rate was. I’ll try to ask the corretor next time I see him. They were dragging their feet (CAIXA) and asking for BS documents that we found other sources of funding (cash!). Yeah, I gave them a years worth of bank statements to show them that I make more than enough to pay the loan, but a caixa “bureaucrat” wanted to make it more difficult. Seriously, dealing with CAIXA is a real “Brazilian” moment like dealing with the PF.
    That’s a new one for me and the rural property, being a foreigner. Ahh… it’s easier just to put in the name of my kid. Technically, I have some business risk, and kids are great for this. No, Sven, I pay everything right on the card so there is no problem. But who can predict the long-term future? Not me at least.
    I was asking because I have seen a few videos or articles about Brazil “promoting” rural investment. I’ll do some more checking.
    @Amsterdam– I understand your frustration. No kidding, the a-holes in BH didn’t want to transfer my foreign drivers license. After paying for trips 3 times, I gave up and went to the Brazilian driving school. And I have been driving legally since I was 15! The confusion came up because my DL didn’t have an issue date. It cost me some money to do the school when I could have spent less money to get a copy of my driving record and have submitted that. But I ended up getting a motorcycle license too so I consider it to be “less” of a waste.
    What I was going to tell you is that almost everything you mentioned is not representative of xenaphobia, but rather the culture of and rules of society here. God forbid, but if they expelled all foreigners from the country, now that is xenaphobia. It’s just different here. Some things better, some things worse. If you focus on the small details that may be worse, you’ll drive yourself crazy.
    spongebob2012-06-06 06:22:32

  • #212298

    Pedro
    Member

    LOL[QUOTE=spongebob]
    @Amsterdam– I understand your frustration. No kidding, the a-holes in BH didn’t want to transfer my foreign drivers license. After paying for trips 3 times, I gave up and went to the Brazilian driving school. And I have been driving legally since I was 15! The confusion came up because my DL didn’t have an issue date. It cost me some money to do the school when I could have spent less money to get a copy of my driving record and have submitted that. But I ended up getting a motorcycle license too so I consider it to be “less” of a waste.
    What I was going to tell you is that almost everything you mentioned is not representative of xenaphobia, but rather the culture of and rules of society here. God forbid, but if they expelled all foreigners from the country, now that is xenaphobia. It’s just different here. Some things better, some things worse. If you focus on the small details that may be worse, you’ll drive yourself crazy.
    [/QUOTE]

    I like your driving licence story and you getting a motorbike licence aswell, i would try to do the same i think.
    .
    It depends on where you live, different areas, different opinions and experiences, an area with more gringoes, less xenophobia. Up here its very xenophobic, everywhere i go and in everything i do, its, Where are you form? How long you here? Where do you live? What do you do? And its not curiosity its like intel gathering LOL
    I have decided to just play with them now, i live here, i live there, I am French, German, Hungarian, Tibetian, the best one is, I am from here, Why? that really confuses them LOL
    In the south i dont think you are going to get so much Xenophobia but when you come up here to the north you will see. Natal is nice and i felt quite easy there, i think maybe because the US had a military base there a while ago, i dont know and the japanese paulistas are investing there i think also.
    But where i live, very obvious Xenophobic, its because its a who you know, rather than what you know kind of place in the area i live.
    And this isnt something that i think, this is something that i know and its confirmed to me by the locals also. They say, You do realise that its who you know here that can get things sorted out for you right?
    Thats why people here slide upto people with authority, police, lawyer, judge, politician(best one), these are the guys who can get things sorted because the beaurocracy in the place i live is basically beyond belief and its the attitude of the people in power, control. They dont want to change that.
    I dont think there is any question that Brazil is Xenophobic, some areas might be better than others and in the south when travelling in Sao Paulo I just felt i could have been in europe and people have already stated on here that Santa Caterina and Rio Grande do Sul, is just like europe in general attitudes, where as in the north they felt hostility towards them and uncomfortable. It is very hostile here. Its getting better but i still get looks like, What the frig are you doing here.
    So if they do decide to confiscate gringo property then your view might change on this then, is that what your saying.
    The bottom line is and the question is, Are the laws in brazil changing in favour of the gringo? I am seeing no, if anything they are becomming more complicated. A gringo can never become a politcian for example and you think this isnt a Xenophobic country, are you sure. Of course it is SB.
    Have you ever been to the northeast of brazil SB?

    Amsterdam2012-06-06 10:12:23

  • #212299

    [QUOTE=spongebob]I was asking because I have seen a few videos or articles about Brazil “promoting” rural investment. I’ll do some more checking.[/QUOTE]
    If you can find those videos/articles, and post their links SB, that would be great. Would be interesting to know when they were released. AFIK, in 2010, some additional laws were passed making foreign ownership of rural land more restrictive. Here in the south, many Argentines were attempting to buy up large parcels, and supposedly, the Chinese have been salivating over vast acreage of soy in GO, MT and MS….
    So back on the forex topic… anyone have a projected date for when the Spanish banking system goes belly-up?!? Shocked

  • #212304

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    So back on the forex topic… anyone have a projected date for when the Spanish banking system goes belly-up?!?¬† Shocked[/QUOTE]
    Finally
    Every week it’s going to be the greece or spanish economy that will next ruin the world. A lot of economies in the arriving quarter are showing stagnant growth. I guess everyone is rushing to stash under their pillows.

  • #212306

    Gilmour
    Member

    currencies were UPpretty massively against the dollar this morning. (like the EUR and AUD). Things are starting to sell off a little now.
    @GF – this is what I keep saying: If I were to buy something rural, then I would most likely put it in my kids name that is Brazilian. So in that respect, I’m not really foreign. I don’t know how much the rules actually help though since the PF told me most people wanting to naturalise Brazilian are Chinese. Confused
    @Amsterdam – geez dude.. I can’t believe you’re still here then. You ask too many questions. Just go get a beer and relax in the sun.

  • #212307

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]@Amsterdam – geez dude.. I can’t believe you’re still here then. You ask too many questions. Just go get a beer and relax in the sun.
    [/QUOTE] Sometimes I wonder if you ever think before you speak (to the trolls and or in general)…. Wink

  • #212308

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=spongebob]currencies were UPpretty massively against the dollar this morning. (like the EUR and AUD). Things are starting to sell off a little now.
    @GF – this is what I keep saying: If I were to buy something rural, then I would most likely put it in my kids name that is Brazilian. So in that respect, I’m not really foreign. I don’t know how much the rules actually help though since the PF told me most people wanting to naturalise Brazilian are Chinese. Confused
    @Amsterdam – geez dude.. I can’t believe you’re still here then. You ask too many questions. Just go get a beer and relax in the sun.
    [/QUOTE]

    Like one questionConfusedSo thats a no then.
    Like i said the realities will and are coming out in the laws and how they effect us, so it just proves my point.
    Just to say, i cant believe it either to be honest, a third world (in mentality) backward place.

    Amsterdam2012-06-07 10:35:43

  • #212309

    Pedro
    Member
    Meninaó
    Sometimes i ever wonder if you actually think at all.
    How old did you say you were again. Oh no, thats a questions isnt it, we dont do questions on here.LOL

    Amsterdam2012-06-07 15:39:54

  • #212310

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=Amsterdam] Meninaó Sometimes i ever wonder if you actually think at all trolldude. How old did you say you were again. Oh no, thats a questions isnt it, we dont do questions on here.LOLYour milk has warmed up i believe. [/QUOTE] Which portion of the aquatic like saturation of b.s would you like to begin now? None, please! Unless, what you retain as sensible intelligence is able to conjure financial or economical input toward this subject, please go away! No one is worried about your nonesensical political rants. Nor do they care to read them.

    Thanks, bye!

  • #212311

    Pedro
    Member
    Wellcome to the real world. LOL

    Amsterdam2012-06-07 15:39:31

  • #212349

    ginaferminio
    Member

    This crap is way off topic, and something that most of us don’t want to waste our time reading. If you guys want to get into a pissing contest, why not do it in private messages, so that the rest of us don’t have to read it. I’m all for reading your thoughts on what you think will happen economically, here in Brasil. Anything else, please take it to the “testosterone thread”.

  • #212352

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=DonVito] This crap is way off topic, and something that most of us don’t want to waste our time reading. If you guys want to get into a pissing contest, why not do it in private messages, so that the rest of us don’t have to read it. I’m all for reading your thoughts on what you think will happen economically, here in Brasil. Anything else, please take it to the “testosterone thread”.[/QUOTE]
    What the hell are you talking about? What pissing contest?
    I tell this freak to leave as well… He changed his post 5 different times in 24 hours. Watch, he’ll make 7 posts in response instead of letting it go so the subject can carry on!

  • #212353

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=spongebob]I was asking because I have seen a few videos or articles about Brazil “promoting” rural investment. I’ll do some more checking.[/QUOTE]

    If you can find those videos/articles, and post their links SB, that would be great. Would be interesting to know when they were released. AFIK, in 2010, some additional laws were passed making foreign ownership of rural land more restrictive. Here in the south, many Argentines were attempting to buy up large parcels, and supposedly, the Chinese have been salivating over vast acreage of soy in GO, MT and MS….

    So back on the forex topic… anyone have a projected date for when the Spanish banking system goes belly-up?!? Shocked

    [/QUOTE] As the old ladies are showing up at the banks in Greece and Spain, moving accounts en mass to Germany, soon there will be a bank holliday over the weekend, then on Sunday the Gov will roll out the Peseta as the new legal currency. Soon worth 1.5 to the Euro. Great for tourist, exports, jobs and sale of empty condos, just like when Rio was cheap 8 years ago…Time to check out condos in Barcelona soon!!!Spain to exit Euro within 90 days…Other option, Germany allows massive printing to send Euro to parity to save the banks, unlikely

  • #212356

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire][QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=spongebob]I was asking because I have seen a few videos or articles about Brazil “promoting” rural investment. I’ll do some more checking.[/QUOTE]

    If you can find those videos/articles, and post their links SB, that would be great. Would be interesting to know when they were released. AFIK, in 2010, some additional laws were passed making foreign ownership of rural land more restrictive. Here in the south, many Argentines were attempting to buy up large parcels, and supposedly, the Chinese have been salivating over vast acreage of soy in GO, MT and MS….

    So back on the forex topic… anyone have a projected date for when the Spanish banking system goes belly-up?!? Shocked

    [/QUOTE] As the old ladies are showing up at the banks in Greece and Spain, moving accounts en mass to Germany, soon there will be a bank holliday over the weekend, then on Sunday the Gov will roll out the Peseta as the new legal currency. Soon worth 1.5 to the Euro. Great for tourist, exports, jobs and sale of empty condos, just like when Rio was cheap 8 years ago…Time to check out condos in Barcelona soon!!!Spain to exit Euro within 90 days…Other option, Germany allows massive printing to send Euro to parity to save the banks, unlikely[/QUOTE] Links… GBOF

  • #212358

    [QUOTE=DonVito]This crap is way off topic, and something that most of us don’t want to waste our time reading. I’m all for reading your thoughts on what you think will happen economically, here in Brasil. Anything else, please take it to the “testosterone thread”.[/QUOTE]
    ClapClapClap
    The (soon to come) Great European Bank Run
    @GBoF… forget the Barcelona apartment… go for that cliffside house on Ibiza! Wink

  • #212363

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=DonVito]This crap is way off topic, and something that most of us don’t want to waste our time reading. I’m all for reading your thoughts on what you think will happen economically, here in Brasil. Anything else, please take it to the “testosterone thread”.[/QUOTE]

    ClapClapClap

    The (soon to come) Great European Bank Run

    @GBoF… forget the Barcelona apartment… go for that cliffside house on Ibiza! Wink

    [/QUOTE] Ibiza! ClapClapClapYes that is where I would love to have a nice place to enjoy life… Fun to think what a fistfull of Pesetas might do while in freefall….WinkNext trip will be Barceona one week/Ibiza one week. This would be an quick exploratory mission…I like the idea of a condo in Bracelona and a beach house on Ibiza…SmileFile:Cala%20Bassa%20%28Ibiza%29%20%28190295961%29.jpgGreatBallsoFire2012-06-07 13:55:35

  • #212366

    ginaferminio
    Member

    Gringodude, my comments were mainly directed at Amsterdam. If the shoe doesn’t fit, then don’t wear it.

  • #212368

    Pedro
    Member
    Get over it Don, you are no different to anyone else and neither is GringoRude.
    Or did you mean that i am the only one with the testosterone..yes,absolutely correct LOL

    Amsterdam2012-06-08 00:10:22

  • #212375

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire][QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=spongebob]I was asking because I have seen a few videos or articles about Brazil “promoting” rural investment. I’ll do some more checking.[/QUOTE]
    If you can find those videos/articles, and post their links SB, that would be great. Would be interesting to know when they were released. AFIK, in 2010, some additional laws were passed making foreign ownership of rural land more restrictive. Here in the south, many Argentines were attempting to buy up large parcels, and supposedly, the Chinese have been salivating over vast acreage of soy in GO, MT and MS….
    So back on the forex topic… anyone have a projected date for when the Spanish banking system goes belly-up?!? Shocked
    [/QUOTE]

    As the old ladies are showing up at the banks in Greece and Spain, moving accounts en mass to Germany, soon there will be a bank holliday over the weekend, then on Sunday the Gov will roll out the Peseta as the new legal currency. Soon worth 1.5 to the Euro. Great for tourist, exports, jobs and sale of empty condos, just like when Rio was cheap 8 years ago…Time to check out condos in Barcelona soon!!!Spain to exit Euro within 90 days…Other option, Germany allows massive printing to send Euro to parity to save the banks, unlikely[/QUOTE]
    Just came back from a biz trip Portugal and Spain.
    In Portugal I stayed in the center by Vasco de Gama shopping and I must tell you I did not see what you saw in Spain.
    A lot of people were shopping, based on the bags that they were carrying, and that was on a Thursday night at 10:00 PM. ( The center is open till 11:30 ).
    A small drive outside of Barcelona Spain apartments can be had for almost 40-50% of their previous highs ( these are owned by the banks and they would be salivating to sell you one). I was looking at an area called Gava, a few blocks from the ocean. There was whole blocks of unoccupied condos available. Pretty sad sight…
    Things can get nasty fairly soon and I am sure there will be many bargains to be had at lower prices then whats on the market now.

  • #212379

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire][QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=spongebob]I was asking because I have seen a few videos or articles about Brazil “promoting” rural investment. I’ll do some more checking.[/QUOTE]

    If you can find those videos/articles, and post their links SB, that would be great. Would be interesting to know when they were released. AFIK, in 2010, some additional laws were passed making foreign ownership of rural land more restrictive. Here in the south, many Argentines were attempting to buy up large parcels, and supposedly, the Chinese have been salivating over vast acreage of soy in GO, MT and MS….

    So back on the forex topic… anyone have a projected date for when the Spanish banking system goes belly-up?!? Shocked

    [/QUOTE] As the old ladies are showing up at the banks in Greece and Spain, moving accounts en mass to Germany, soon there will be a bank holliday over the weekend, then on Sunday the Gov will roll out the Peseta as the new legal currency. Soon worth 1.5 to the Euro. Great for tourist, exports, jobs and sale of empty condos, just like when Rio was cheap 8 years ago…Time to check out condos in Barcelona soon!!!Spain to exit Euro within 90 days…Other option, Germany allows massive printing to send Euro to parity to save the banks, unlikely[/QUOTE]

    Just came back from a biz trip Portugal and Spain.

    In Portugal I stayed in the center by Vasco de Gama shopping and I must tell you I did not see what you saw in Spain.
    A lot of people were shopping, based on the bags that they were carrying, and that was on a Thursday night at 10:00 PM. ( The center is open till 11:30 ).

    A small drive outside of Barcelona Spain apartments can be had for almost 40-50% of their previous highs ( these are owned by the banks and they would be salivating to sell you one). I was looking at an area called Gava, a few blocks from the ocean. There was whole blocks of unoccupied condos available. Pretty sad sight…

    Things can get nasty fairly soon and I am sure there will be many bargains to be had at lower prices then whats on the market now.
    [/QUOTE] Right, life goes on, even when 25% of the youths have no jobs. I would love to have an apartment in Barcelona that I could call home for part of the year. If Spain goes to the Peseta, the Real should ramp up to 3.0 really fast. So how many Euros do I need for a nice 2br apartment in Gava?

  • #212392

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]

    Right, life goes on, even when 25% of the youths have no jobs. [/QUOTE]
    Try doubling that! It’s going to be an ugly (and possibly riot-filled) summer in Espanha….
    Desperation, anger, grows for Spanish youth, with 51% unemployed!

    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-07 19:59:27

  • #212393

    jeb2886
    Member

    Desperation? If they were desperate they would be starting their own businesses. Janitorial, food stand, house cleaning. All very low investment ideas, but decent returns.
    There might be high unemployment, but clearly they’re taken care of, or they would be doing the above jobs, and more.
    It’s also unemployment for the young, not the adults. The adults can help support the youth during these times.
    When you see streets filled with people like in mexico, then you know you’re starting to run out of jobs. When there are no jobs, and when working on the streets creating your own job fails, then you’re in a tight spot.

  • #212396

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] Right, life goes on, even when 25% of the youths have no jobs. [/QUOTE]

    Try doubling that! It’s going to be an ugly (and possibly riot-filled) summer in Espanha….

    Desperation, anger, grows for Spanish youth, with 51% unemployed!

    [/QUOTE] Right, so Spain leaves the Euro, prices fall 50% and suddenly people start buying/spending money and jobs return. The same game of the Latin countries remember 10,000 Lire to the dollar? Print baby print! So we will have a chance at a flat in Barcelona at a great price about six to nine months out. Buy during the panic….And buy reais at 3.0 to 3.5 as we all know the Brazzies with the bulging suitcases buying condos in Florida know as well, the Real is really worth 3.50 or less if you factor in what Dilma and the PT is doing…

  • #212402

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]It’s also unemployment for the young, not the adults. The adults can help support the youth during these times. [/QUOTE]
    Adults as well are unemployed. The rate for youth (under 25 yrs of age) is astronomical, but the overall unemployment rate in Spain is still almost 25%! Keep in mind, unemployment rates are based on those who are out of work, yet who are still looking for work.
    It does notinclude those who’ve given up! Meaning, the real rate is even higher. The graph below paints a dire picture for the immediate and short term future. Spain may well be a tipping point….

    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-07 22:03:52

  • #212405

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000]Easy there buckeroos. I think we should wait and see if these wild predictions happen.[/QUOTE]

    Haha, Yes, exactly

    Amsterdam2012-06-08 12:04:55

  • #212410

    agri2001
    Participant

    [So how many Euros do I need for a nice 2br apartment in Gava?[/QUOTE]
    @GBF I did not price out anything, that was what my friend indivated to me regarding the % price drop in housing.
    But these were €250K-€350k units (at their peak) that we are talking about.
    On another note I was traveling by car to Cordova via Jaen and at some of the small farming towns you can buy a beautiful 4 bdr house with lots of land for less then €60.000, full of olive trees, if farming is your gig..Smile

  • #212412

    ginaferminio
    Member

    No, you’re the only one who has to prove you have any testosterone. You were the one who started getting emotional, and slinging personal attacks.

  • #212414

    Pedro
    Member

    Don

    What personal attack did i sling Don? Why dont you try following your own advice Don.

    Amsterdam2012-06-08 12:59:04

  • #212416

    jeb2886
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa][QUOTE=jkennedy]It’s also unemployment for the young, not the adults. The adults can help support the youth during these times. [/QUOTE]
    Adults as well are unemployed. The rate for youth (under 25 yrs of age) is astronomical, but the overall unemployment rate in Spain is still almost 25%! Keep in mind, unemployment rates are based on those who are out of work, yet who are still looking for work.
    It does notinclude those who’ve given up! Meaning, the real rate is even higher. The graph below paints a dire picture for the immediate and short term future. Spain may well be a tipping point….

    [/QUOTE]
    The graph shows that in normal years, 12% or so is probably the norm for unemployment. So they’ve gained about 12% of unemployment now. The 50% of youth is included in that 12%, which probably makes up a good portion of their work force.
    I haven’t dug into the numbers very far, but I’m always less doom and gloom. I also haven’t looked at their culture, perhaps even during good years it’s hard to get a job, but I suspect 12% is from people who don’t want to work and/or are being picky. I’m also not clear on how they calculate their numbers, they might be far more aggressive in counting unemployed over there, especially with better social services available, people are probably more likely to claim looking.
    The youth want jobs they can go to 9-5, make a pension and good wages with probably a good amount of prestige. Instead of creating companies and making jobs themselves. I would never have guessed how much money some of these small shops and businesses make, but the prestige isn’t there. Those guys who clean up parking lots? Christ, they make really good money. Like 4K/month for a lot, and they do a bunch of them per night. But it’s not snazzy like media productions specialist.
    Spain has plenty of room left. It’s a matter of people realizing they need to change their views on work, and start creating their own jobs.

  • #212423

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001]
    @GBF I did not price out anything, that was what my friend indivated to me regarding the % price drop in housing.
    But these were €250K-€350k units (at their peak) that we are talking about.
    On another note I was traveling by car to Cordova via Jaen and at some of the small farming towns you can buy a beautiful 4 bdr house with lots of land for less then €60.000, full of olive trees, if farming is your gig..Smile
    [/QUOTE]
    Spain rocks. If I didn’t mind travelling so much, I’d buy something there.
    There used to be so many puteiros filled with Brazilian women that you could practice Portuguese virtually every night and you wouldn’t forget Portuguese. At least the Spaniards have plenty of decent places to relieve stress. Wink
    spongebob2012-06-08 15:23:12

  • #212431

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    The graph shows that in normal years, 12% or so is probably the norm for unemployment. So they’ve gained about 12% of unemployment now.[/QUOTE]
    Meaning, unemployment has doubled. Perhaps not total doom and gloom, but certainly portentous of a possible tipping point (free fall) of the Spanish economy. In virtually every previous historical economic meltdown (regardless of the nation), there’s usually the proverbial straw, which broke the camel’s back….

  • #212433

    jeb2886
    Member

    no, I would say it went from roughly 0% to 12%, because previously those who wanted employment could get it, but didn’t take it. Or from 100% to 88%, still not a gret number, but 88% isn’t bad either. I suspect some of this has to do with the very low unemployment in the 2008 year range, probably people were getting jobs were they shouldn’t have been. Being paid more than they should and now they think that is the norm and what they should get.
    In the US when unemployment is around 6%, there are jobs everywhere. 6% to me, means fully employed and searching for people to fill empty positions.

  • #212436

    kim
    Participant

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire][QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=DonVito]This crap is way off topic, and something that most of us don’t want to waste our time reading. I’m all for reading your thoughts on what you think will happen economically, here in Brasil. Anything else, please take it to the “testosterone thread”.[/QUOTE]
    ClapClapClap
    The (soon to come) Great European Bank Run
    @GBoF… forget the Barcelona apartment… go for that cliffside house on Ibiza! Wink
    [/QUOTE]

    Ibiza! ClapClapClapYes that is where I would love to have a nice place to enjoy life…
    Fun to think what a fistfull of Pesetas might do while in freefall….WinkNext trip will be Barceona one week/Ibiza one week. This would be an quick exploratory mission…I like the idea of a condo in Bracelona and a beach house on Ibiza…Smile
    File:Cala%20Bassa%20%28Ibiza%29%20%28190295961%29.jpg

    [/QUOTE]
    I like your style GBoF! I’d sell every thing over here and just keen a small apartment in Copacabana to also buy in Ibiza.
    I really hope they leave by the end of the Summer, in the mean time have a read of this –

    Is it time to buy a holiday home on Spain’s ‘Costa Catastrophe’?

    Spain’s struggling banks are setting up English-language websites to sell off their property backlog. But beware: the market may still be falling

    Feungirola%20building%20boom

    In 2006, Fuengirola was typical of Spain’s housebuilding boom; today there are properties where vendors have slashed the asking price by ‚Ǩ1m. Photograph: Alamy

    It has been dubbed the “Costa Catastrophe”. Hundreds of thousands of unsold new homes litter Spain‘s coastal provinces ‚Äì and now the banks are finally pulling the plug on developers and selling off their stock for whatever they can get.

    All the major Spanish banks have opened real estate websites (each translated into English to appeal to British buyers) to offload the new and repossessed homes on their books, promising discounts of as much as 60% off asking prices. But many experts think that prices in Spain still have further to fall and that asking prices remain a long way from reality.

    Santander’s Spanish propertywebsite, Altamira, promises “housing for all, at yesterday’s prices”. It talks of “retro prices” of less than ‚Ǩ50,000 (¬£40,400), and after just a brief search we found a four-bedroom, two-bathroomapartment in Valencia for ‚Ǩ18,000. Mind you, it was hardly holiday home material.

    Calle%20Camino%20De%20Los%20Milinos,%20MalagaCalle Camino De Los Milinos, Malaga

    Many of Altamira’s more interesting properties are new-builds, where the developer has got into difficulty and left the bank with scores of flats. For example, in Estepona on the Costa del Sol, the bank is trying to sell 16 flatsin a development with a swimming pool 15 minutes’ walk from the beach, pictured left.Prices for the two- and three-bed flats start at ‚Ǩ85,456, but, tellingingly, none has yet sold. At the peak of the boom, similar properties were going for twice that price.

    Servihabitat, the site for properties owned by La Caixa bank, tells buyers “you set the price ‚Ķ we’ll give you an answer in 24 hours”. If reports from property agents in Spain are true, buyers should put in silly offers and see if the bank bites.

    Bankia, a collection of seven failed banks which recently sought a ‚Ǩ19bn government bailout, sells its repossessed properties through BankiaHabitat. Currently it is running an “andando a la playa” (walk to the beach) promotion offering hundreds of beachside flats and apartments starting at ‚Ǩ39,050.

    At the height of the boom in 2006, Spain built more than 760,000 homes, five times the level of housebuilding in the UK. Housing starts have since collapsed by 90% and the struggling banks can no longer “extend and pretend” the unpaid interest on the colossal loans advanced to developers.

    The banks know that as they bring the property to market, prices will fall even further, so many offer 95% or even 100% loans at low interest rates so long as the buyer is willing to pay the original, inflated price. It’s a gambit few believe will find many takers.

    Official statistics mask the scale of price falls. The Bank of Spain says prices are 25%-30% below their peak, but estate agents say falls of 40%-50% are common in some areas.

    Idealista, Spain’s equivalent to Rightmove.co.uk, says prices have fallen most in Lleida, the coastal province south of Barcelona. Meanwhile, many analysts reckon prices remain far too high and could fall substantially this year. SocGen’s Michala Marcussen expects prices to fall 15% this year, while Citi’s Willem Buiter believes Spain is only halfway through its price declines.

    There are reports of bargain hunters flocking to Spain to buy at knockdown prices, lured by scores of websites promising ultra-cheap properties and loans. But Clare Nessling, director at Conti, an overseas mortgage specialist, warns: “Bitter experience has taught thousands of overseas property buyers that scrimping on independent legal advice can effectively cost them their holiday home. And ensure an independent valuation of the property is carried out, even if you’re buying with cash. This should point out any problems ‚Äì subsidence, damp, wiring defects ‚Äì and could also highlight possible boundary disputes.”

    Many developments were built cheaply and shoddily, with frequent reports of breaches of planning rules and licences. Buyers should also factor in high fees – typically 10% – when purchasing in Spain.

    “Be very selective. Many so-called bargains are being offered at bargain basement prices because they are of poor quality and in undesirable locations,” says Nessling.

    “It’s very easy to be pulled in by descriptions of ‘cheap’ or ‘knockdown’ prices, but you really don’t want to end up with a toxic asset simply because you didn’t do your homework or tried to cut corners.”

    Guardian Money contacted a number of estate agents around Spain, and the message was always the same: the best bargains are in the countryside, away from the beach where prices have fallen most. All were united in advising buyers that the asking prices on most websites are fantasy figures which vendors do not have a hope of achieving.

    These are a few of the properties for sale which highlight price falls:

    Sotogrande%20Costa.Sotogrande, Costa del Sol

    • A luxurious five-bed five-bathroom house, left, on a 2,754 square metre plot within the prestigious Sotogrande estate at the west end of the Costa del Sol has an asking price of €2.2m but would have sold for €3m-plus at the height of the market. Details from Savills International.

    Finca%20near%20Gandesa.Gandesa, Terra Alta

    ‚Ä¢ Priced at ‚Ǩ149,000 three years ago and now with an asking price of ‚Ǩ57,000, a two-hectare country estate with a restored three-bed bungalow, left, almond, olive and pine trees has been “realistically priced for a quick sale” . Details from Ebro Valley Properties on (0034) 977 416 117.

    • A 5,500 sq m country fincawith a three-bed, three-bathroom bungalow and swimming pool two hours from Barcelona and 15 minutes from Reus airport was on the market for €220,000 in 2007; it is now for sale at €99,000. Ebro Valley Propertieson (0034) 977 416 117.

  • #212461

    doctorlili
    Member

    It’s what always happens in a boom time. Everyone who can afford something sees the trains leaving the station. You see the price charts that keep increasing at increasing slope and you go “how am I going to afford anything if I wait!”. And there are those “advisors” who say you should jump on the big movers (talking about stocks now, like people buying AAPL a few months ago, or CSX a year ago when everyone was talking about Warren Buffet’s portfolio.) In some way it is like that now with real estate in Brazil’s population centers, especially Rio. And it was like that with the BRL in the last year. You get the sense the Brazil train is leaving the station and you have to jump on at all cost or else miss it. I had the same thing in Mumbai 7-5 years ago, was interested and saw 20% year over year increases, got that same feeling. Bubble territory. And gold is in a bubble too.
    I wonder now, whether increasing rates and the feeling of having to jump on or be too late are a sign of bubble, and suggest walking away and stay long in cash for a few years. I would not buy in Rio, I wait for the bubble burst. Thanks for the references to Europe, this looks very appealing for a European expat. If you are right and Spain breaks away from the Euro, then in a year or so would be the time to buy, or by all means, if you don’t have to buy Euros first, then buy now.

  • #212465

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000]I saw decent properties slashed by 59% something that was 300 is now 121. one word sustainability[/QUOTE] Is that in Spain?

  • #212466

    Gianni
    Member

    Is anyone seriously considering buying up any Grespain properties? Gringodude2012-06-09 17:38:05

  • #212477

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringodude]Is anyone seriously considering buying up and Grespain properties? [/QUOTE]
    I am looking at two, that I saw on my last trip, going back in late July for biz and fly to Barci and probably buy both of them ( if still available ) if not will look again at whats available
    Also looking at Greece, lots of bargains coming up there also. Big%20smile

  • #212480

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=frank4000] I still think the market has not bottomed out as yet.[/QUOTE]
    I agree, the hysteria has yet to find even its climax. Thus, we shall wait and see. I can only imagine the delights that await once a bottom is hit. I feel sorry for them, but as it was stated earlier “greed isn’t always good”.

  • #212484

    jeb2886
    Member

    Realistically, something has to be done with the euro to make it viable.
    Germany feels like it’s helping out all these lazy countries from the average citizens point of view. So anyone who gives in, will be committing political suicide over there.
    Most likely they will need to induce inflation in Germany and other strong countries, so that the currency weakens in those countries that need a weaker currency (Spain/Greece). That way Germans will feel they aren’t paying anything, yet the others will get the help they need. That will take some time to do though.
    Spain/Greece could leave, and that will secure the Euro for awhile, and their currencies will be allowed the inflation necessary to fix their respective countries.
    At that point, there will be some good real estate deals, but not for long. Probably 6-9 months, until investors jump in and prop up the property values. If you were going to buy, I would wait until properties start recovering. Don’t try and guess the bottom, miss out on the bottom, pay 20% more, and buy on the upswing. You’ll still get an awesome deal.

  • #212494

    kim
    Participant

    Spanish banks to get up to 100bn euros in rescue loans

    Luis de Guindos says Spain has agreed to officially request assistance, but denies this is a bailout

    Spain is to get up to 100bn euros ($125bn; £80bn) in loans from eurozone funds to try to help shore up its struggling banks.

    The move was agreed during emergency talks with eurozone finance ministers.

    Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said his country would shortly make a formal request for assistance.

    He emphasised that the help would be for the financial system, not the economy as a whole. “This is not a rescue,” he said.

    “This is a loan which is given in very favourable conditions, which will be determined in the next few days. But they are very favourable – much more favourable than the market ones,” Mr de Guindos told a news conference.

    The Spanish government had been reluctant to ask for a bailout like the one given to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, as these rescue packages came with demands for spending cuts and stringent spending cuts.

    Analysis

    image%20of%20Tom%20BurridgeTom Burridge BBC News, Madrid

    Most analysts and experts would say this is a bailout. It is different to the bailouts of Greece and Portugal and Ireland: it’s not going to have such strict conditions and the money is going to be directed via the Spanish government using Frob [Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring] – which is essentially a bank restructuring fund that exists here in Spain.

    But it is a government institution, so the debt is going to be on the Spanish government’s books. It is money that will be directed towards troubled Spanish banks, banks that lent heavily during the construction boom here – of course, the property market crashed and the loans turned bad.

    Up to the last moment, Spain was at least refusing comment, with some ministers at times denying that Spain was going to go for a bailout. The impression we get is that Spain has been led by the hand slightly and at least sped up in the process of asking for help from abroad.

    Mr de Guindos said there would be conditions attached for the banks receiving the loans, but there would not be “micro-economic conditions” for Spain.

    “We hope that as a result of these injections [of capital] families and companies will have more solvent banks which are able to offer them credit, which they are not able to do at the moment,” he said.

    ‘Unprecedented’

    The exact amount that Spain will receive will be decided after the completion of two audits of its banks, due to be completed by the end of the month.

    A team comprising staff from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund will head to Madrid to assess the needs of the Spanish banking sector, a Eurogroup spokesman confirmed to the BBC.

    The money will bolster the finances of Spain’s weakest banks, which have been left with billions of euros worth of bad loans because of the collapse of the country’s property boom and the recession that followed.

    Some of them borrowed large amounts on the international markets to lend to developers and homebuyers, a riskier strategy than funding it with deposits from savings.

    Crisis jargon buster
    Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:

    Capital
    For investors, it refers to their stock of wealth, which can be put to work in order to earn income. For companies, it typically refers to sources of financing such as newly issued shares.
    For banks, it refers to their ability to absorb losses in their accounts. Banks normally obtain capital either by issuing new shares, or by keeping hold of profits instead of paying them out as dividends. If a bank writes off a loss on one of its assets – for example, if it makes a loan that is not repaid – then the bank must also write off a corresponding amount of its capital. If a bank runs out of capital, then it is insolvent, meaning it does not have enough assets to repay its debts.

    When the credit crunch hit, Spain’s financial sector was plunged into what the IMF has described as an “unprecedented” crisis.

    Banks need to offload some 200,000 repossessed properties at a time when house prices have fallen by 25% on average.

    The government has already put 34bn euros into the banking system to try to strengthen it, according to the IMF. In addition, it has recently nationalised Bankia, its fourth largest bank, which last month requested 19bn euros.

    Spain was keen to ensure that any external assistance went directly to its banks, rather than to the central government.

    As a result, the loans will go to its bank restructuring agency, called Frob. But this would still considered state debt, Mr de Guindos said.

    The Eurogroup said“the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring, Frob, acting as agent of the Spanish government, could receive the funds and channel them to the financial institutions concerned. The Spanish government will retain the full responsibility of the financial assistance”.

    The money will come from two funds created to help eurozone members in financial distress. They are the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which enters into force next month.

    The European Commission welcomed the move.

    “With this thorough restructuring of the banking sector, together with the on-going determined implementation of structural reforms and fiscal consolidation, we are certain that Spain can gradually regain the confidence of investors and market participants,” Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Vice President Oli Rehn said in a statement.

    Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner described the developments as “important for the health of Spain’s economy and as concrete steps on the path to financial union, which is vital to the resilience of the euro area”.

    Eurozone debt crisis bailouts

    Who When How much Main problem
    Spanish%20flag%20and%20Bankia%20branch

    Spain

    June 2012

    Up to 100bn euros

    Some banks borrowed large amounts to lend out,feeding a property boom. The credit crisis and recession meant billions of euros worth of loans could not be repaid

    Greece%20flag

    Greece

    May 2010 and March 2012

    110bn and 130bn euros. Private lenders also wrote off debt

    Greece borrowed large amountsfor public spending. The financial crisis, combined with deep-seated problems such as tax evasion, left it with massive debts

    Portugal%20flag

    Portugal

    May 2011

    78bn euros

    High government spendingand a weak, uncompetitive, economy built up debts it could not pay back

    Irish%20flag

    Republic of Ireland

    November 2010

    85bn euros

    Like Spain, a property crash plunged the “Celtic Tiger” economyinto recession, saddling its banks, which had leant big to developers and homebuyers, with huge losses

  • #212495

    kim
    Participant

    100bn euros…. anyone else find that number utterly and totally ridiculous.Confused

  • #212515

    Not only is it absurdly ridiculous, just you wait… it will be like water poured on to sand….
    BTW: Found an interesting app which focuses on the Brazilian economy.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-10 11:01:10

  • #212517

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Not only is it absurdly ridiculous, just you wait… it will be like water poured on to sand….BTW: Found an interesting app which focuses on the Brazilian economy.¬†
    [/QUOTE]
    did you d/l it?

  • #212519

    agri2001
    Participant

    Sold

    The so called most exclusive property in Spain, ” Sa Fortalesa” is sold, rumors say that at the price of 40 million euro, very far away from the starting price of 120 million euros.

    This property is located in Por of Pollensa, the place with the most class in Mallorca.

    @GBF I guess you missed out on this opportunity of a 70%+ haircut on a choice RE LOL

    MALLORCA%20-

    agri20012012-06-10 13:18:13

  • #212528

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001]

    Sold

    The so called most exclusive property in Spain, ” Sa Fortalesa” is sold, rumors say that at the price of 40 million euro, very far away from the starting price of 120 million euros.

    This property is located in Por of Pollensa, the place with the most class in Mallorca.

    @GBF I guess you missed out on this opportunity of a 70%+ haircut on a choice RE LOL

    MALLORCA%20-

    [/QUOTE] 70% off? Hey magnificient! China hardlanding is coming as mentioned several times in this weeks Barron’s. So we have global commodity prices falling bigtime taking down the Real to 3 and above since the flood of easy money selling commodities is over. Brazil will become affordable again. I see the Europe problem lasting a very long time. Real Estate in Spain will get much cheaper and stay cheap for years. Most youths stay living with parents often living off Grandma’s pension. No thought of work or buying anything. No money as well. Spain will leave the Euro and issue Pestas. Greece will bring back the Dracma. I will get a nice condo near Barcelona or a farmhouse in the countryside with a bunch of olive/orange trees. Cool. Might even go for a beach house in Ibiza. GreatBallsoFire2012-06-10 18:08:05

  • #212529

    kim
    Participant

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire][QUOTE=agri2001]

    Spain will leave the Euro and issue Pestas. Greece will bring back the Dracma. I will get a nice condo near Barcelona or a farmhouse in the countryside with a bunch of olive/orange trees. Cool. Might even go for a beach house in Ibiza.

    [/QUOTE]
    Amen.Clap

  • #212539

    [QUOTE=Gringodude] [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    BTW: Found an interesting app which focuses on the Brazilian economy. [/QUOTE]
    did you d/l it?[/QUOTE]
    Actually, no. I have a mac, but not an ifone or ipad-gee. My phone is android-gee, and thus far the app is only compatible with ifone/ipad-gee…. LOL

  • #212540

    [QUOTE=agri2001]The so called most exclusive property in Spain, ” Sa Fortalesa” is sold, rumors say that at the price of 40 million euro, very far away from the starting price of 120 million euros.

    This property is located in Por of Pollensa, the place with the most class in Mallorca.

    MALLORCA%20-

    [/QUOTE]

    Less is more. I’ll take the “studio” terrace on Ibiza below, over that multi-level palace on Mallorca, any day!
    Wink

  • #212541

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=Gringodude] [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    BTW: Found an interesting app which focuses on the Brazilian economy. 
    [/QUOTE]
    did you d/l it?[/QUOTE]Actually, no.¬† I have a mac, but not an ifone or ipad-gee.¬† My phone is android-gee, and thus far the app is only compatible with ifone/ipad-gee….¬† LOL[/QUOTE]
    Okay, I’ll give it a go and post some interesting articles or findings I come across. I think you can take it for mac as well, so you’re set!
    Ipad-gee
    F-ing Shar-RIO-Shahs and their lazy ‘sotaque’…

  • #212550

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa][QUOTE=agri2001]The so called most exclusive property in Spain, ” Sa Fortalesa” is sold, rumors say that at the price of 40 million euro, very far away from the starting price of 120 million euros.

    This property is located in Por of Pollensa, the place with the most class in Mallorca.

    MALLORCA%20-

    [/QUOTE]

    Less is more. I’ll take the “studio” terrace on Ibiza below, over that multi-level palace on Mallorca, any day!
    Wink

    [/QUOTE]

    So we’ve gone from exchange rate predictions to Real estate, Hmmm, nice, get back on topic. Clap
  • #212551

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringodude] [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=Gringodude] [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    BTW: Found an interesting app which focuses on the Brazilian economy.
    [/QUOTE]
    did you d/l it?[/QUOTE]Actually, no. I have a mac, but not an ifone or ipad-gee. My phone is android-gee, and thus far the app is only compatible with ifone/ipad-gee…. LOL[/QUOTE]
    Okay, I’ll give it a go and post some interesting articles or findings I come across. I think you can take it for mac as well, so you’re set!
    Ipad-gee
    F-ing Shar-RIO-Shahs and their lazy ‘sotaque’…[/QUOTE]

    Yeah you do that, see what you can prove to us today, this has gotten way off topic. Any knew larger vocab would be a bonus.

    Amsterdam2012-06-11 15:36:34

  • #212566

    Gianni
    Member

    [QUOTE=Amsterdam] Yeah you do that, see what you can prove to us today, this has gotten way of topic. Any knew larger vocab would be a bonus. [/QUOTE] Do you mean to say vocabulary that is known or already to have been understood by the would be or but not necessarily all or any readers?

    Clap

  • #212588

    [QUOTE=Amsterdam]So we’ve gone from exchange rate predictions to Real estate, Hmmm, nice, get back on topic. [/QUOTE]
    I might be wrong, but I believe the majority of those with genuine interest in this thread/topic, have a RE purchase they might like to make, if they can get it ‘on sale’, via a great forex rate, or at the very least, have some funds outside of BR they would like to move into the country, and then make a RE purchase in the near future with those funds.
    Anyway… AFIK, the OP is technically the only one who can actually call foul, when the thread goes off-track… according to Robert’s Rules of Internet Forums. LOL
    Did you hear me say anything Hamster, about when YOU went waaaaaaaay off track of the topic of this thread, with your disjointed ramblings about ‘xenophobia’ in Brasil??? Confused
    Thought not.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-11 23:11:14

  • #212609

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Boycie] 100bn euros…. anyone else find that number utterly and totally ridiculous.Confused
    [/QUOTE]
    This article kind of explains it a bit and read that last part concerning repossessed properties.
    So I guess a bottom still has to set in.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/12/spain-bailout-idUSL5E8HCCYF20120612

  • #212616

    [QUOTE=agri2001]
    This article kind of explains it a bit and read that last part concerning repossessed properties.[/QUOTE]
    Thanks for the link. Yes, the last paragraph reveals GBoF may be able to buy the Barcelona apartmet AND the house on Ibiza. Yet I found the opening sentence to be the most poignant: “Spain has just pulled off one of the biggest con tricks in Eurozone history”.

  • #212617

    agri2001
    Participant

    You did notice that, now didn’t you? LOL
    In my opinion it is just a transfer of wealth to the haves and interesting how the EU gave the money to Spain and NOT to the banks directly making the Spanish working stiff responsible for the payments in case of default, which is going to occur for sure with most of them, because of their drunken speculation in the housing market.
    Those directors of the banks ought to be shot at a public square.
    Also keep in mind that the guy that wrote the article holds short positions on some of those banks as he stated.

  • #212626

    jeb2886
    Member

    It will probably turn out to be a so-so plan. Not great, but better than letting banks blow up.
    If they started injecting money directly into companies that would be pretty bad, then the EU is responsible for individual companies? Spain says they didn’t want the money, but if their banks aren’t funded correctly, that is a huge risk to the rest of the EU.
    Net/net, no one is really happy, so it can’t be that bad.

  • #212634

    kim
    Participant

    My Mrs was chatting to our friend, American guy living in Barcelona and has been for the last 3 years.
    He and his wife are actually leaving because she has just got a job in China, however he was saying the place does not feel like its in much of a crisis.
    For sure there are loads of unsold property but the atmosphere is certainly not one of panic, typically Latin he said.
    Not much unrest to report of right now, whether that will change or not..who knows.

  • #212635

    [QUOTE=Boycie] My Mrs was chatting to our friend, American guy living in Barcelona and has been for the last 3 years… he was saying the place does not feel like its in much of a crisis. For sure there are loads of unsold property but the atmosphere is certainly not one of panic, typically Latin he said.[/QUOTE]
    I think for a timeless, classic city like Barcelona, there will be little over-supply with fire-sale price tags, unless it’s some clustered high-rise development on the outskirts of the city. The glut will undoubtedly be the assorted coastal areas further south, where Euros and Brits bought apartments as holiday getaways.
    Though time alone will tell, what occurs will most likely be similar to the US financial/housing crisis of 2008, where places like Manhattan (timeless & classic) suffered far less than a superficial place like Las Vegas. Also, US housing prices didn’t bottom out for a good two years until after the financial meltdown, and in some regions, ‘bottom’ has yet to be reached. It might be time to start shopping in Spain, should one feel so inclined, but certainly not yet time to buy.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-12 15:57:56

  • #212636

    jeb2886
    Member

    Classics and vacation properties.
    The difference is that the coastal cities are bought by people not looking to rent, but have a vacation home. They’ve either paid for it up front, or are paying for it now. Vegas, Florida and a few other places were built up for residential growth. They over built and that was the problem.
    People don’t need to sell those coastal properties, they can hold them for as long as they want. The problem is people who bought “investment” properties, they’re the ones who might feel a crunch.

  • #212639

    Pedro
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    I think for a timeless, classic city like Barcelona, there will be little over-supply with fire-sale price tags, unless it’s some clustered high-rise development on the outskirts of the city. The glut will undoubtedly be the assorted coastal areas further south, where Euros and Brits bought apartments as holiday getaways.
    [/QUOTE]

    I am not usually one to nit pic but is that Barcelona – Brazil by any chance? Ermm

    Amsterdam2012-06-12 17:20:37

  • #212654

    So as to keep the tick and flea picker happy, back on topic: Signs indicate Treasuries could be a bubble about to burst
    I wasn’t of significant enough age to be investing back in 1981, but 10-year T-notes yielded more than 15%??? For real?!? WOW!!! Current rate now at 1.66%….

  • #212659

    jeb2886
    Member

    Interest rates were pretty high back in the early 80’s.
    That article makes it sound like there is a bubble then says probably not.
    Those aren’t even 1yr notes, they’re 10yr notes getting those rates. Pretty insane. People just want security right now. They literally have no where else to put all their money they’re making. Can’t put it in Europe, can’t put it in China, or Russia. Everywhere has a possibility of things changing, so these things are the best bet.
    They’re probably ok for now, but if the market starts getting back on track and other investments start looking good, these people will need to sell these things for a loss, or hang onto them for 10 years making way below market averages. When they go to sell, they need to find a buyer, and if the market is looking up, buyers might say I want 4%, not 1.6%, which means they’ll have to sell them for below market value, so that the maturity of them makes up the difference.

  • #212660

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    Those aren’t even 1yr notes, they’re 10yr notes getting those rates. Pretty insane. People just want security right now. They literally have no where else to put all their money they’re making. Can’t put it in Europe, can’t put it in China, or Russia. Everywhere has a possibility of things changing, so these things are the best bet.[/QUOTE]
    So perhaps a better, more definitive term than “a bursting bubble”, is “a total collapse of the markets”…?

  • #212661

    jeb2886
    Member

    If the markets collapse, then tbills will get even stronger.
    Most markets are within their historical PE range for the earnings they’re making. So I wouldn’t expect that to happen.
    Housing in most places is below 2000 levels now, if you take into considering the extremely low interest rates, it’s about the cheapest it’s been in 30 years to buy.

  • #212662

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Housing in most places is below 2000 levels now, if you take into considering the extremely low interest rates, it’s about the cheapest it’s been in 30 years to buy.[/QUOTE]
    Can’t argue with you there! Part of me, wouldn’t mind being back in the US, where I could take out a 15yr mortgage for just over 3%!!! And yeah, that’s the ANNUAL rate, not this monthly merda they post about rates in Brasil.
    Yet at the end of the day (which was a little over an hour ago)… still glad I’m here, and not there.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-13 00:06:25

  • #212663

    jeb2886
    Member

    Low interest rates are great if you have no money, high interest rates are good if you have money.

  • #212664

    And why I loved being able to make an all cash purchase in Brasil (during a great forex window, the subject of this thread). I no longer pay interest to anyone, for anything! Let them pay it to me.
    EDIT: Yet still… 3% to buy a home. AMAZING!
    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-13 00:25:58

  • #212665

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=jkennedy]Housing in most places is below 2000 levels now, if you take into considering the extremely low interest rates, it’s about the cheapest it’s been in 30 years to buy.[/QUOTE]

    Can’t argue with you there! Part of me, wouldn’t mind being back in the US, where I could take out a 15yr mortgage for just over 3%!!! And yeah, that’s the ANNUAL rate, not this monthly merda they post about rates in Brasil.
    Yet at the end of the day (which was a little over an hour ago)… still glad I’m here, and not there.

    [/QUOTE] Bidding wars in Southern CA where I am very happy as an owner who might swap for Spain in a year or so…I am a home owner in Brazil as well over 7 years. Just a slight thought of selling as prices have ramped up yet the Gov is sliding very much to the left.

  • #212686

    Pedro
    Member

    Floorippa – Ican see why you might have a problem getting your head out of europe, you livethere Embarrassed

    (Edited) What does the Robert’s Rules of Internet Forums say about if the Forum is to do with Eggs you talk about toffee apples LOL

    GBF – OMG! Youmean you dont live in Brazil then, Confused

    you say she is sliding to the left, maybe but Brazil has always beenkind of rightwing social elitist, so she could just be trying to balance things out.

    Its called distributionof wealth, which could be looked upon as a leftwing stance but not extremistleftwing, lowering interest rates and encouraging people to buy their own homes isnt extremist leftwing,its capitalist. But we will have to see how far she goes.

    (Edited) – Things were basically upside down here, Cars at phenomonaly high prices and more expensive than houses, a basic car costing 40,000 reas and something i considered very ordinary starting at 70k plus used, these are now coming down.
    The trouble with Brazil is its very corrupt, and havent looked at the figures recently but according to a friend of mine who appeared to know quite alot about the Brazilian economy so not my research, up until a couple of years ago Brazils internal debt almost cancelled out its GDP and the countries infrastructure was crumbling, still isnt upto that much today. They built a viaduct near the town here recently and realised it was too low, now they are having to modify it..Pffrr!! OMG!

    Amsterdam2012-06-13 13:10:56

  • #212701

  • #212703

    agri2001
    Participant

    Anyways….back on topic.
    How many of you are planning on dipping your toes in the Spanish RE market.
    Just curious…!!

  • #212708

    [QUOTE=agri2001]
    How many of you are planning on dipping your toes in the Spanish RE market[/QUOTE]
    It’s tempting, but no. Yet if I was from the UK/Europe, and had family there, rather than the US, then probably yes….

  • #212712

    kim
    Participant

    I would only if they went back to the peseta for the following reasons,
    Close to my native Country, went there most years as a Kid so its got a huge nostalgic appeal.
    Went back two years ago and even the smell of the pine trees/vegetation made it feel like coming home.
    My granddad had an apartment near the coast that was like my dream pad! white marble floor, white TV, gold ashtrays.. you get the picture, he hadn’t changed a thing since the late 70’s when he bought it, didn’t even have air con but that was all part of the charm, had a plunge pool on the balcony, drinks cabinet the works.
    We used to wear all his old clothes that he’d left in the wardrobes for years and yeasr, white leather shoes, collarless t-shirts, flares.
    He was really lucky and sold it just before the market fell in 2007, you’d have trouble getting ‚Ǩ100k for it now.
    The Spanish are a nice bunch also, good food, wine, grate with kids! you’ve got the likes of Barcelona and Madrid if you want a proper city, and the charm of Seville and Granada.
    Such a pity they are so bankrupt and suffering with no jobs.
    Also having spent many a Birthday on the white island of Ibiza, Spain has a special place in my heart.
    Boycie2012-06-13 20:41:17

  • #212721

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001]Anyways….back on topic.
    How many of you are planning on dipping your toes in the Spanish RE market.

    Just curious…!!
    [/QUOTE] I will go on some scouting trips mainly looking for a condo near Barcelona. If we get the Peseta, Ibiza might be a possibility. Let’s all share what we learn from our travels…

  • #212727

    [QUOTE=Boycie]The Spanish are a nice bunch also, good food, wine, grate with kids! you’ve got the likes of Barcelona and Madrid if you want a proper city, and the charm of Seville and Granada.[/QUOTE]
    The food and wine alone make Spain a tempting place to relocate! Thumbs%20Up
    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire]

    I will go on some scouting trips mainly looking for a condo near Barcelona. If we get the Peseta, Ibiza might be a possibility. Let’s all share what we learn from our travels…[/QUOTE]
    Yes, please share the info! And just think… the word “gringo” exists in the spanish language too. LOL

  • #212730

    Gianni
    Member

    Relocating to Spain or Greece, that would be an interesting exchange from Brazil!

  • #212738

    Personally, I prefer Brasil… and the beaches, well, NO comparison to Spain! Nonetheless, when one considers the variety of cuisines Spain serves up, such as the differences of Galician from Catalan, yet all within a landmass slightly less than the size of the state of MG, it just makes the Brasilian ‘food experience’ (as recently commented on in another thread) slightly frustrating.
    And as for wine, well, thankfully Chile and Argentina are not far away, and decent vinho can be had. If I was relegated to only drink “vinho nacional”… Dead
    Have never met a Rioja I didn’t like! Big%20smile

  • #212740

    kim
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Have never met a Rioja I didn’t like! Big%20smile
    [/QUOTE]
    I was in Seville two years ago where they have some of the best tapas bars, house Rioja ‚Ǩ10’s and tapas around ‚Ǩ2/‚Ǩ4 a plate depending on which, all severed in a authentic environment, yes in a peace of well preserved history… try finding that in Lapa.Rio or any historical part of a Brazilian town.
    Beaches??? ever been to Formentera? some of the best in the world cara, just need to know where to look.
    http://www.google.com/search?q=formentera+beaches&hl=pt&client=firefox-a&hs=aN2&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&prmd=imvnsa&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=JWHZT5PEDujG6AGl4unKAg&ved=0CGEQsAQ&biw=1279&bih=627
    Boycie2012-06-14 00:00:21

  • #212741

    [QUOTE=Boycie]…try finding that in Lapa.Rio or any historical part of a Brazilian town.[/QUOTE]
    At best, you’ll find pasteis, coxinhas, or if you’re lucky, frango √† passarinho no alho (all served with Skol)…. LOL
    Back on the forex topic… pay attention to this! Greeks Hoard Canned Food
    From article: “Bankers said daily withdrawals from the major banks were hitting ‚Ǩ500-‚Ǩ800 million ($631.8 million-$1.01 billion)”
    Expect currency controls to be implemented, should this trend continue. When that happens, there will be a domino effect, and the Eurozone FUBAR!
    Panicked investors (foolishly) run back to Tio Sam’s T-bills, and the Real then goes to 3.0, maybe even 4.0 Shocked

  • #212744

    Kevinferno
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=Boycie]…try finding that in Lapa.Rio or any historical part of a Brazilian town.[/QUOTE]

    At best, you’ll find pasteis, coxinhas, or if you’re lucky, frango √† passarinho no alho (all served with Skol)…. LOL

    Back on the forex topic… pay attention to this! Greeks Hoard Canned Food

    From article: “Bankers said daily withdrawals from the major banks were hitting ‚Ǩ500-‚Ǩ800 million ($631.8 million-$1.01 billion)”

    Expect currency controls to be implemented, should this trend continue. When that happens, there will be a domino effect, and the Eurozone FUBAR!

    Panicked investors (foolishly) run back to Tio Sam’s T-bills, and the Real then goes to 3.0, maybe even 4.0 Shocked

    [/QUOTE] I hope you are right!!!!

  • #212759

    Pedro
    Member

    Still nothing about Brazil. Ermm

    Amsterdam2012-06-14 14:19:12

  • #212774

    sahara
    Member

    Gringodude: Abusive post deleted and account suspended, following final warning.

  • #212775

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa][QUOTE=Boycie]…try finding that in Lapa.Rio or any historical part of a Brazilian town.[/QUOTE]
    At best, you’ll find pasteis, coxinhas, or if you’re lucky, frango √† passarinho no alho (all served with Skol)…. LOL
    Back on the forex topic… pay attention to this! Greeks Hoard Canned Food
    From article: “Bankers said daily withdrawals from the major banks were hitting ‚Ǩ500-‚Ǩ800 million ($631.8 million-$1.01 billion)”
    Expect currency controls to be implemented, should this trend continue. When that happens, there will be a domino effect, and the Eurozone FUBAR!
    Panicked investors (foolishly) run back to Tio Sam’s T-bills, and the Real then goes to 3.0, maybe even 4.0 Shocked
    [/QUOTE]
    Her`s an interesting article to the bank run that you mentioned along with the quoted paragraph which I found interesting.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18436777
    Automated bailout

    If Greece does face a bank run, it will be historically quite rare.

    When a Greek removes 1,000 euros from his or her account, the bank borrows the money from the Greek central bank.

    What is unique is that the Greek central bank then automatically borrows that same 1,000 euros from the European Central Bank via the Target2 payments system used to settle cross-border transactions in the eurozone.

    In other words, the run on the Greek banks is being financed by the rest of the eurozone. Every 1,000 euros withdrawn from the Greek banks increases the ECB’s exposure to an eventual euro exit by Greece by precisely 1,000 euros.

    To repeat, this happens automatically, as part of the ECB’s payments system. It has nothing to do with the country’s much-reported rescue loans.

    The Greek central bank has already borrowed more than 100bn euros this way.

  • #212819

    Gilmour
    Member

    I’m really starting to think that GringoDude/Kurtz/Expat – seems like same kind of “fly off the handle” style. Real American, Canadian, or whatever…

    Gringo.Floripa
    – off topic somewhat, but Brazil is boring at least if you live in the interior, in a smallER town. I see the same freakin people every day. If I go to the buteco, the conversations are always about the same things (high taxes and politicians that steal). The food is very boring. My wife bought me a pão de mel the other day. Oh wow.. I’ve had those 10.000 times. Brazil is also so big that it takes hours and hours and hours to go anywhere. In Spain, you can hop in a car and reach Madrid in around 6 hours from any one point (except the territories and islands, of course). My life is pretty much set up in Brazil.. but I’m bored as hell. Maybe I need to find some new girlfriends to complicate my lifeadd some spice.
    Still, even though I personally think Spain is better (for several reasons), I still think I’m better off here, especially given the employment situation there.
    spongebob2012-06-14 18:47:19

  • #212822

    graham
    Participant

    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    – off topic somewhat, but Brazil is boring at least if you live in the interior, in a smallER town. I see the same freakin people every day. If I go to the buteco, the conversations are always about the same things (high taxes and politicians that steal). The food is very boring. My wife bought me a pão de mel the other day. Oh wow.. I’ve had those 10.000 times. Brazil is also so big¬† that it takes hours and hours and hours to go anywhere. In Spain, you can hop in a car and reach Madrid in around 6 hours from any one point (except the territories and islands, of course). My life is pretty much set up in Brazil.. but I’m bored as hell. Maybe I need to find some new girlfriends to complicate my lifeadd some spice.Still, even though I personally think Spain is better (for several reasons), I still think I’m better off here, especially given the employment situation there.
    [/QUOTE]
    You may be off topic,SB, but the general sentiment you express might describe the feelings of more gringoes than one would think…although my European preference would be Italy instead of Spain. Still, it is not bad to be set for life in Brasil, no?

  • #212827

    kim
    Participant

    No way could live in a small town in Brazil – Zona Sul Rio is bad enough! its like a village for us living here.Ouch
    Boycie2012-06-14 21:30:28

  • #212835

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Grads]
    You may be off topic,SB, but the general sentiment you express might describe the feelings of more gringoes than one would think…although my European preference would be Italy instead of Spain. Still, it is not bad to be set for life in Brasil, no? [/QUOTE]
    I think this restlessness would happen anywhere, given the way that I am. Some people said “homesickness” and I say “No, I have lived so many years abroad that I feel more comfortable abroad. Spain or Italy? They are both nice, but since I have spent so much time in Spain, I’m more familiar with it there. HOWEVER, my life there would not have been the same. Years ago, Spain had a program like Paraguay’s, if my memory serves me correctly. You could deposit $60,000 USD in a bank and get a visa to live there that way.
    The downside to Brazil is that travelling is that Brazil is so big; gas is relatively expensive to its size; roads are dangerous outside of the south. Unless you pony up some major cash, any car that you will buy is somewhat of a death trap on highways, especially due to the large overloaded trucks in some areas.
    Now back on topic: A very strong principle that I live by is regression to the mean or as they say in the link “regression to mediocrity”. Germany is a real powerhouse. Their productivity is very impressive. BUT given this “law”, German productivity will be “averaged” by the lazy countries’ productivity. It almost HAS to be that way. When the US was printing money, the Euro would have gone to 10:1 USD had they not highlighted this “crisis”. So I think that Greece and Spain are in the Euro to stay, long-term. This same principle applies to Brazil. Brazil had above-average interest rates for a long time. Now we are finally seeing things go lower. If it’s too good to last, it usually doesn’t.
    This paradox is really quite intriguing because it applies to everything. It’s all around us. I could point to 10,000 examples of this. Another one I use almost every day is Occam’s Razor. This has nothing to do with exchange rates, but it has always worked for me. When Brazilians are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, I just look for the simplest most direct solution.

  • #212845

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Having just returned from my so-called, Grand European Tour, I can empathize with some of the comments here. Brazil is a ‘difficult’ country to enjoy; the lack of infrastructure being a major impediment to progress together with Brazilian culture which can be quite tedious and certainly boring. However, in defense of the broad intention to remain in Brazil, I would cite the climate as being one of the outstanding reasons why we endure. Meanwhile, civilization is but a few flying hours away…

  • #212848

    Gilmour
    Member

    I stay because I make more money here. Maybe with an MBA I could use it in the US, since that’s where it’s from, and “maybe” make more money, but I wouldn’t bank on it…
    Also, American culture is “too touchy” for my tastes. How many things exist in Brazil that people don’t care about or talk about, but in other countries, especially to the one to the north, they pay much attention to it, and give too much weight to it?
    BTW – I worked for a couple of Fortune 500 companies and I didn’t like it. The whole “corporate” etiquette and back-stabbing isn’t my style.

  • #212855

    [QUOTE=spongebob]I think this restlessness would happen anywhere, given the way that I am. Some people said “homesickness” and I say “No, I have lived so many years abroad that I feel more comfortable abroad. Spain or Italy? They are both nice, but since I have spent so much time in Spain, I’m more familiar with it there. HOWEVER, my life there would not have been the same.
    The downside to Brazil is that travelling is that Brazil is so big; gas is relatively expensive to its size; roads are dangerous outside of the south. Unless you pony up some major cash, any car that you will buy is somewhat of a death trap on highways, especially due to the large overloaded trucks in some areas.[/QUOTE]
    SB, sounds like you need a vacation! I believe you still have kids at home, right? Certainly, there are in-laws who can take care of them for a few days or a week. Take the Mrs and GO SEE a part of Brasil you’ve never visited! I hear ya on the driving distances, and the adrenalin produced by journeys by car (far from relaxing), so head to BH and grab a flight. With companies like Avianca, Webjet, Trip (and occasionally Gol/Varig), reasonably priced flights can be had.
    I love Spain; it has many beautiful features, both urban and rural. But it was the vast and largely untamed natural beauty of Brasil, which was one of the principle draws, for me, to decide to live here. It would literally take a lifetime to see it all! I’ve seen a lot already, but in reality, I’ve barely scratched the surface.

    BTW… Welcome back Esprit!!!

  • #212856

    hoganti
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    [QUOTE=spongebob]
    I think this restlessness would happen anywhere, given the way that I
    am. Some people said “homesickness” and I say “No, I have lived so many
    years abroad that I feel more comfortable abroad. Spain or Italy? They
    are both nice, but since I have spent so much time in Spain, I’m more
    familiar with it there. HOWEVER, my life there would not have been the
    same. The downside to Brazil is that travelling is that Brazil
    is so big; gas is relatively expensive to its size; roads are dangerous
    outside of the south. Unless you pony up some major cash, any car that
    you will buy is somewhat of a death trap on highways, especially due to
    the large overloaded trucks in some areas.[/QUOTE]SB, sounds like you need a vacation!¬† I believe you still have kids at home, right?¬† Certainly, there are in-laws who can take care of them for a few days or a week.¬† Take the Mrs and GO SEE a part of Brasil you’ve never visited!¬† I hear ya on the driving distances, and the adrenalin produced by journeys by car (far from relaxing), so head to BH and grab a flight.¬† With companies like Avianca, Webjet, Trip (and occasionally Gol/Varig), reasonably priced flights can be had.I love Spain; it has many beautiful features, both urban and rural.¬† But it was the vast and largely untamed natural beauty of Brasil, which was one of the principle draws, for me, to decide to live here.¬† It would literally take a lifetime to see it all!¬† I’ve seen a lot already, but in reality, I’ve barely scratched the surface.BTW… Welcome back Esprit!!![/QUOTE]
    ya spongey, grab a flight up here to Parauapebas…..I’ll give you a grand tour (it’ll take about half an hour)

  • #212857

    kim
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    Having just returned from my so-called, Grand European Tour, I can empathize with some of the comments here. Brazil is a ‘difficult’ country to enjoy; the lack of infrastructure being a major impediment to progress together with Brazilian culture which can be quite tedious and certainly boring. However, in defense of the broad intention to remain in Brazil, I would cite the climate as being one of the outstanding reasons why we endure. Meanwhile, civilization is but a few flying hours away…

    [/QUOTE]
    Your just above Salvador right? must be some of the best weather in Brazil, soon as you enter Bahia it really does become tropical.
    RJ – is good for 6 months I’d say, around now it gets dark to early and its not quite warm enough to go to the beach every day, however that does provide some versatility when it comes to fashion, being able to wear a nice jacket when out for dinner/drinks is a privilege only to be had around now.
    Where did your G.E.T take you? always nice to get outa here some time, I start getting cabin fever after 6 months.

  • #212860

    [QUOTE=Boycie]RJ – is good for 6 months I’d say, around now it gets dark to early and its not quite warm enough to go to the beach every day, however that does provide some versatility when it comes to fashion, being able to wear a nice jacket when out for dinner/drinks is a privilege only to be had around now.[/QUOTE]
    Nem me fala!While I do love the distinct four seasons we have here in the south, the sun setting at 17:30 in winter is depressing!!! I long for the winter solstice! No, I’m not a pagan or druid, but that day (June 20th this year) marks increasing hours of daylight each day forward (until late Dec).
    Can’t recall when was the last time I sported a blazer, but it is nice to put on a warm jacket, and walk in the clean brisk air. Yet when I’m merely wearing a light windbreaker, the ‘indigenous’ are all bundled up in ski jackets, with gloves on! LOL
    So back to the economic climate… a close yesterday of USD:BRL @ 2.07, and now this morning 2.04… I’m tired of this seesaw. Guess we’ll have to wait until Sunday, see what the results are from the voting in Greece, as to any significant movement in the forex….

  • #212862

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    So back to the economic climate… a close yesterday of USD:BRL @ 2.07, and now this morning 2.04… I’m tired of this seesaw. Guess we’ll have to wait until Sunday, see what the results are from the voting in Greece, as to any significant movement in the forex….
    [/QUOTE]
    That seesaw that you refer to is the CB playing in the forex.
    On one hand they say they want a weal real and on the other they play the dollar swap game.
    5 times in the last 3 weeks. That is the reason we don’t have a real at 2.10++

  • #212895

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Boycie] [QUOTE=Esprit]

    Having just returned from my so-called, Grand European Tour, I can empathize with some of the comments here. Brazil is a ‘difficult’ country to enjoy; the lack of infrastructure being a major impediment to progress together with Brazilian culture which can be quite tedious and certainly boring. However, in defense of the broad intention to remain in Brazil, I would cite the climate as being one of the outstanding reasons why we endure. Meanwhile, civilization is but a few flying hours away…

    [/QUOTE]

    Your just above Salvador right? must be some of the best weather in Brazil, soon as you enter Bahia it really does become tropical.
    RJ – is good for 6 months I’d say, around now it gets dark to early and its not quite warm enough to go to the beach every day, however that does provide some versatility when it comes to fashion, being able to wear a nice jacket when out for dinner/drinks is a privilege only to be had around now.

    Where did your G.E.T take you? always nice to get outa here some time, I start getting cabin fever after 6 months.

    [/QUOTE]

    Many thanks for the welcome Gringo.Floripa. Boycie, the winter weather here is certainly better than the summer weather I endured when in the UK recently. The G.E.T consisted parts of France, Belgium, Luxemburg, Switzerland, and some pizza together with a few glasses of lemoncello in Italy. I would add that my ‘cabin fever’ started to kick in while my bags were x-rayed and then opened by the Gestapo at Salvador airport. Fortunately they didn’t find my stash of smoked bacon and black pudding! On arrival home a tinge of depression was caused by a lengthy list of things electrical that had succumb to the rigors of the salty/humid climate. Dear God, how many over-priced TVs, water pumps, and light bulbs must a man buy to earn a bed in heaven? Meanwhile and back on topic, I’ve got to confess that I’m shedding a few tears about the demise of the Real on the exchange rate. Cry

  • #212898

    Gilmour
    Member

    The Euro is probably going to go crazy on Sunday. Yeah, the FX market is open in the evening. Does anyone know what time the election results are due to be finalised? I’m betting (but fake money!) that Greece will stayin the Euro. After all, Germans are throwing free money at them! They would have to crazy to leave the Euro and revert back to a 3rd world (even more corrupt) country than it is now.

  • #212902

    agri2001
    Participant

    Bob I took the liberty to post the following from another poster from another thread to counter your German free money comment.
    BTW I believe the pols will close at 14:00 hrs Brazil time.

    I have absolutely no problem with the ‘responsible adult’ and ‘market realities’ schools of thought. Just as long as they’re consistent.

    If a private German bank lends to a private Irish or Greek bank Рfor example if Commerzbank lends €10bn to Anglo Irish Bank Рthen let those banks stand and fall on their own judgement. Anglo Irish was pretty much a commercial property bank. It fuelled and powered the building mania in Ireland. As such, it had zero small deposit holders and was of no systemic value to the Irish banking system.

    So let reality kick in and rule. The property bubble bursts and Anglo Irish goes belly up. Commerzbank loses its money, as any stupid judgement call in business deserves.

    Aren’t loans usually paid back with interest? They are. Aren’t bankrupt companies usually let go bankrupt? They are. Doesn’t a lender to a bankrupt company lose their money, or at least the vast majority of it? They do.

    But that’s not what’s happened. The Irish, Greek and Portuguese (and now the Spanish I suppose) taxpayers are on the hook for loans they didn’t take on. They are paying back loans that are not theirs to pay back.

    Why aren’t market forces working through the system? Because Germany effectively runs the EU/ECB and they have demanded that national governments guarantee all private bank debts. Because if we let the free hand of the market run freely, the German banks are the ones ultimately out of pocket – to the tunes of billions and billions of euro.

    I’m all for the free market, paying back loans and fiscal responsibility. But that means that the market must be free and not fixed by one national government. It means the loans are paid back by those who took them out. It means that those loans that cannot be re-paid, aren’t. It means someone else doesn’t pay your bill.

    That’s the free market. That’s reality.

    As always, follow the money.

    David Blair characterizes the euro as a giant credit card that Greece used to go on a spending slurge. No argument there, but they were the minor, if feckless, beneficiaries of the euro project.

    The euro (and the ECB) has been designed, used and guided by Germany’s interests. Low interest rates weren’t for Greece’s benefit, but to assist in the recovery of the German economy (post reunification). Countries like Ireland in particular could have benefitted much more from higher interest rates to cool an overheating economy and a vast and growing property bubble.

    The very existence of the euro was always going to benefit the net exporters such as…errr….Germany. Instead of a sky-high Deutschmark making their exports prohibitively expensive, the euro created a 400m-strong quasi-domestic market into which German companies could sell their exports. Outside the eurozone, the euro traded well below where the Deutschmark would have been – thanks to those pesky weaker economies dragging it down – thereby making German exports much cheaper internationally than would have been the case with Deutschmark/Dollar, Deutschmark/Yen or Deutschmark/Sterling rates.

    Long story short: over the past ten years, the euro has been worth trillions in extra revenues to the German economy. Trillions.

    Consider as well, the euro’s effects on bank lending – always a very lucrative pastime. The German people save a quarter of a trillion euro each and every year. This money is only of use to German banks if they can find someone to lend it to. When the euro was put in place, suddenly there were no exchange controls, no currency fluctuations. German banks lent to banks in countries such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland, whose people then bought BMWs and Mercedes, thereby funneling the money – plus interest – back into Germany.

    As for the bailout, who’s getting bailed out? Ultimately, Germany. Don’t believe me? Once again, follow the money. When the Irish (private) banks went belly up, Brian Lenihan, the finance minister was told in no uncertain terms that he must guarantee all Irish bank loans, including Anglo Irish Bank, a commercial/property bank of no systemic importance. Why? Because the lenders to Irish banks were, you’ve guessed it, German banks.

    So when you’re told about Ireland being ‘bailed out’, what we’re in fact talking about is Irish taxpayers paying back loans that aren’t theirs to pay to German banks. Ditto Greece. Even though some bondholders have taken a haircut, the intent is that loans to the Greek government are paid back with interest, even if that means tanking the Greek economy for a generation. In Ireland, the Irish government/taxpayer is paying back private loans to German private banks with money borrowed from the ECB at 6%.

    If the Germans are such high priests of free markets and fiscal discipline, why don’t they let market forces work through the system? If a private German bank is stupid enough to lend to a stupid Irish bank such as Anglo Irish, then let the Darwinian economics of the market let both the dumb borrowers and dumb lenders go to the wall. Their stupidity is expelled from the system and the capital vultures pick the bones of what remains.

    What Germany wants is all the benefits and none of the pain of the euro. The really crazy thing is we know what will happen if Greece defaults and leaves the euro. If Greece were to leave the euro, it’d wipe out all Greek savings, send Greek/drachma inflation rocketing because of the cost of imports, but…..

    But in 2 years, the economy would be competitive and rebounding, exports flying and they’d be back on the money markets. Just as Iceland is now.

    Can we please stop all this old bollix about Germany writing cheques, taking the hits etc.? They’re the only country not to take a hit on it so far, on either the upside or the downside. And they’re not writing cheques, they’re making loans that they are guaranteeing will get paid back – with interest – by enforcing austerity on other countries.

    agri20012012-06-16 14:16:48

  • #212906

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    On arrival home a tinge of depression was caused by a lengthy list of things electrical that had succumb to the rigors of the salty/humid climate. Dear God, how many over-priced TVs, water pumps, and light bulbs must a man buy to earn a bed in heaven?

    [/QUOTE]
    LOLAin’t it the truth! I have purchased more light bulbs in the few years I’ve lived in Brasil, than my entire life combined living in other places!
    @SB: Polls close in Greece at 13hs Brasil time on Sunday, but it will probably not be until midnight (in Brasil), when any real numbers are known. This articlegoes over some possible outcomes. I tend to side with the no real winner scenario, forcing a coalition to be formed. Meaning, more politics, more rhetoric, more talk, and little to no action….

  • #212909

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=agri2001] Bob I took the liberty to post the following from another poster from another thread to counter your German free money comment.

    BTW I believe the pols will close at 14:00 hrs Brazil time.

    I have absolutely no problem with the ‘responsible adult’ and ‘market realities’ schools of thought. Just as long as they’re consistent.

    If a private German bank lends to a private Irish or Greek bank Рfor example if Commerzbank lends €10bn to Anglo Irish Bank Рthen let those banks stand and fall on their own judgement. Anglo Irish was pretty much a commercial property bank. It fuelled and powered the building mania in Ireland. As such, it had zero small deposit holders and was of no systemic value to the Irish banking system.

    So let reality kick in and rule. The property bubble bursts and Anglo Irish goes belly up. Commerzbank loses its money, as any stupid judgement call in business deserves.

    Aren’t loans usually paid back with interest? They are. Aren’t bankrupt companies usually let go bankrupt? They are. Doesn’t a lender to a bankrupt company lose their money, or at least the vast majority of it? They do.

    But that’s not what’s happened. The Irish, Greek and Portuguese (and now the Spanish I suppose) taxpayers are on the hook for loans they didn’t take on. They are paying back loans that are not theirs to pay back.

    Why aren’t market forces working through the system? Because Germany effectively runs the EU/ECB and they have demanded that national governments guarantee all private bank debts. Because if we let the free hand of the market run freely, the German banks are the ones ultimately out of pocket – to the tunes of billions and billions of euro.

    I’m all for the free market, paying back loans and fiscal responsibility. But that means that the market must be free and not fixed by one national government. It means the loans are paid back by those who took them out. It means that those loans that cannot be re-paid, aren’t. It means someone else doesn’t pay your bill.

    That’s the free market. That’s reality.

    As always, follow the money.

    David Blair characterizes the euro as a giant credit card that Greece used to go on a spending slurge. No argument there, but they were the minor, if feckless, beneficiaries of the euro project.

    The euro (and the ECB) has been designed, used and guided by Germany’s interests. Low interest rates weren’t for Greece’s benefit, but to assist in the recovery of the German economy (post reunification). Countries like Ireland in particular could have benefitted much more from higher interest rates to cool an overheating economy and a vast and growing property bubble.

    The very existence of the euro was always going to benefit the net exporters such as…errr….Germany. Instead of a sky-high Deutschmark making their exports prohibitively expensive, the euro created a 400m-strong quasi-domestic market into which German companies could sell their exports. Outside the eurozone, the euro traded well below where the Deutschmark would have been – thanks to those pesky weaker economies dragging it down – thereby making German exports much cheaper internationally than would have been the case with Deutschmark/Dollar, Deutschmark/Yen or Deutschmark/Sterling rates.

    Long story short: over the past ten years, the euro has been worth trillions in extra revenues to the German economy. Trillions.

    Consider as well, the euro’s effects on bank lending – always a very lucrative pastime. The German people save a quarter of a trillion euro each and every year. This money is only of use to German banks if they can find someone to lend it to. When the euro was put in place, suddenly there were no exchange controls, no currency fluctuations. German banks lent to banks in countries such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland, whose people then bought BMWs and Mercedes, thereby funneling the money – plus interest – back into Germany.

    As for the bailout, who’s getting bailed out? Ultimately, Germany. Don’t believe me? Once again, follow the money. When the Irish (private) banks went belly up, Brian Lenihan, the finance minister was told in no uncertain terms that he must guarantee all Irish bank loans, including Anglo Irish Bank, a commercial/property bank of no systemic importance. Why? Because the lenders to Irish banks were, you’ve guessed it, German banks.

    So when you’re told about Ireland being ‘bailed out’, what we’re in fact talking about is Irish taxpayers paying back loans that aren’t theirs to pay to German banks. Ditto Greece. Even though some bondholders have taken a haircut, the intent is that loans to the Greek government are paid back with interest, even if that means tanking the Greek economy for a generation. In Ireland, the Irish government/taxpayer is paying back private loans to German private banks with money borrowed from the ECB at 6%.

    If the Germans are such high priests of free markets and fiscal discipline, why don’t they let market forces work through the system? If a private German bank is stupid enough to lend to a stupid Irish bank such as Anglo Irish, then let the Darwinian economics of the market let both the dumb borrowers and dumb lenders go to the wall. Their stupidity is expelled from the system and the capital vultures pick the bones of what remains.

    What Germany wants is all the benefits and none of the pain of the euro. The really crazy thing is we know what will happen if Greece defaults and leaves the euro. If Greece were to leave the euro, it’d wipe out all Greek savings, send Greek/drachma inflation rocketing because of the cost of imports, but…..

    But in 2 years, the economy would be competitive and rebounding, exports flying and they’d be back on the money markets. Just as Iceland is now.

    Can we please stop all this old bollix about Germany writing cheques, taking the hits etc.? They’re the only country not to take a hit on it so far, on either the upside or the downside. And they’re not writing cheques, they’re making loans that they are guaranteeing will get paid back – with interest – by enforcing austerity on other countries.

    [/QUOTE]

    Germany doesn’t need me to defend it, yet despite what above reads like anti-German rhetoric, it is in fact reluctant half-proof that the Germans are indeed the master race, especially when it comes to capitalism.; little wonder that some trembled at the prospect of German reunification.

    On what planet would it be likely that a group of mongrel nations such as ‚Äòthe Europeans‚Äô might form a symbiosis of balanced traders served by a common currency? The Irish are an excellent example of prize amadáns; a humble nation transformed into presumptuousness by the lure brotherly love, gifts and cheap credit and all in pursuit of the unspoken German/Franco dream; European Federalism. The dream also caught up in her skirts the gullible Portuguese, Spanish and the pitiable Greeks in an orgasmic erection pumped up by debt and promises of eternal love; dumb & dumber.

    And now this romp is over, leaving nothing but the odour of a good time, financial infection and regret. The nameless purveyors of this debacle retreat to the shadows leaving the politicians to their fate at the ballot box and their pensions while the collective idiot, the electorate, picks up the tab, the pain and the service charge. The master stroke is that no one goes to jail. Who’s your daddy? Ermm

  • #212993

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    @SB: Polls close in Greece at 13hs Brasil time on Sunday, but it will probably not be until midnight (in Brasil), when any real numbers are known. This articlegoes over some possible outcomes. I tend to side with the no real winner scenario, forcing a coalition to be formed. Meaning, more politics, more rhetoric, more talk, and little to no action….
    [/QUOTE]
    I’m just glad I took a couple of shots of caxa√ßa and then went to bed. Nothing happened. I knew the Greek majority wouldn’t vote for anti-austerity. With all of the money Germany throws at them, they would have to be crazy. Some Germans even went that far as to say those same words in some German publications (Bild, I think).
    I’ll use Portugal as an example because it (is) a poor country in Southern Europe with approximately the same population as Greece. Corruption is also a problem in both countries. When I saw videos of Portugal in 1990, it was one thing. In 1997, something different. In 2006 when I went there for a visit I was amazed at all of the nice new roads and fancy bridges where there had previously been foot paths or roads with lotsa potholes.
    Where do you think all of that money was coming from to build those nice new roads? (I’m not talking about toll roads that usually have large multi-national investment groups paying for them). My bet is Germany is paying…
    IMHO, Portugal would look more like a back-a$$ city in Brazil (like where I live), if it weren’t for EU money.

  • #212994

    Gilmour
    Member

    Speaking of foreign exchange inflows– last week, forecasted at 32B. Actual number came in at 84B. So foreigners are still sending there money to Brazil… I think if we want to see the Real REALLY weaken, we have to see this number drop like a rock.

  • #212997

    graham
    Participant

    I, for one, do not want to see the Real get “REALLY” weak. Balance is nice, and swings too far benefit the few and not the many. Some people have substantial investments IN Brasil.

  • #213001

    So another ‘bail out’… more pouring water on to sand, another finger stuck in the deteriorating dike. Greece: “too big to fail”. When this house of Euro cards collapses, it’s going to be a doozy! But don’t expect anything to happen until after the US elections for who’ll be the tenant of the Casa Branca. Wink
    @ Grads: I don’t think anyone here (in Brasil) wants a weak Real permanently… just a nice spike, a window of opportunity if you will. And like previous ‘swings’ in the forex, a balance is eventually found. Anyway, with continual rate cuts by the CB, some people’s investments IN Brasil, are no longer producing the same rate of return…. Cry

  • #213004

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Stephen Sondheim’s lyrics serve the European debacle well:

    ‚ÄúDon’t you love farce?
    My fault, I fear.
    I thought that you’d want what I want –
    Sorry, my dear.
    But where are the clowns?
    There ought to be clowns.
    Quick, send in the clowns.”

    The Greek State, not unlike Brazilian one, has been run by a short-sighted, lying and corrupt bunch of blackguards. At any other time in history the world would roll its eyes and walk away and leave these people to their 4000 year history and any lessons they might have learnt from it. The world would walk away because, hitherto, Greece was of no significance or relevance to the global economy. Their significance today rests simply on the fact that it owes large lumps of money to anybody that was foolhardy enough to lend it to them. Those lenders can’t handle the simple truth that if they were to mark their books to market, they too would be near bankruptcy. Today those lenders are continuing to extend and pretend that Greece will be able to repay the loans and they are doing this by lending yet more money to this totally bankrupt nation. Clowns!

    Back on topic: Anyone waiting for a spike is, in my opinion, sitting on it today. Does the fall in value of 24% against USD not impress?

  • #213005

    [QUOTE=Esprit]Back on topic: Anyone waiting for a spike is, in my opinion, sitting on it today. Does the fall in value of 24% against USD not impress?[/QUOTE]
    Actually, since a year ago, it’s more like 28%. True Esprit, beggars can’t be choosers. But I’m not begging… at least not yet. I admit I’m being a tad greedy. Two or three months @2.50-2.75 is all I want.
    [QUOTE=Esprit]The Greek State, not unlike Brazilian one, has been run by a short-sighted, lying and corrupt bunch of blackguards. At any other time in history the world would roll its eyes and walk away and leave these people to their 4000 year history and any lessons they might have learnt from it. The world would walk away because, hitherto, Greece was of no significance or relevance to the global economy. Their significance today rests simply on the fact that it owes large lumps of money to anybody that was foolhardy enough to lend it to them…. Today those lenders are continuing to extend and pretend that Greece will be able to repay the loans and they are doing this by lending yet more money to this totally bankrupt nation. Clowns! [/QUOTE]
    I usually don’t like to post things such as the item below, an email I received over the weekend, without providing some references/links, to substantiate the facts and figures. So caveat emptor… take the below with a large grain of Mediterranean sea salt. I have no idea if it’s all true, or not. Yet if only half of what is claimed is factual, albeit a bit dated, then the clowns have come and gone… their balloon pants bulging with absconded funds!

    —————— start ———————-

    Even on a stiflingly hot summer’s day, the Athens underground is a pleasure. It is air-conditioned, with plasma screens to entertain passengers relaxing in cool, cavernous departure halls – and the trains even run on time.
    There is another bonus for users of this state-of-the-art rapid transport system: it is, in effect, free for the five million people of the Greek capital. With no barriers to prevent free entry or exit to this impressive tube network, the good citizens of Athens are instead asked to ‘validate’ their tickets at honesty machines before boarding. Few bother.
    This is not surprising: fiddling on a Herculean scale — from the owner of the smallest shop to the most powerful figures in business and politics — has become as much a part of Greek life as ouzo and olives. Indeed, as well as not paying for their metro tickets, the people of Greece barely paid a penny of the underground’s £1.5 billion cost — a ‘sweetener’ from Brussels (and, therefore, the UK taxpayer) to help the country put on an impressive 2004 Olympics free of the city’s notorious traffic jams. The transport perks are not confined to the customers. Incredibly, the average salary on Greece ’s railways is £60,000, which includes cleaners and track workers Рtreble the earnings of the average private sector employee here.
    The over ground rail network is as big a racket as the EU-funded underground. While its annual income is only ¬£80 million from ticket sales, the wage bill is more than ¬£500m a year ‚Äî prompting one Greek politician to famously remark that it would be cheaper to put all the commuters into private taxis. ‚ÄòWe have a railroad company which is bankrupt beyond comprehension,‚Äô says Stefans Manos, a former Greek finance minister. ‚ÄòAnd yet, there isn‚Äôt a single private company in Greece with that kind of average pay.‚Äô Significantly, since entering Europe as part of an ill-fated dream by politicians of creating a European super-state, the wage bill of the Greek public sector has doubled in a decade. At the same time, perks and fiddles reminiscent of Britain in the union-controlled 1970s have flourished.
    Ridiculously, Greek pastry chefs, radio announcers, hairdressers and masseurs in steam baths are among more than 600 professions allowed to retire at 50 (with a state pension of 95 per cent of their last working year’s earnings) — on account of the ‘arduous and perilous’ nature of their work. This week, it was reported that every family in Britain could face a £14,000 bill to pay for Greece ’s self-inflicted financial crisis. Such fears were denied yesterday after Brussels voted a massive new £100bn rescue package which, it insisted, would not need a contribution from Britain. Even if this is true — and many British MPs have their doubts — we will still have to stump up £1billion to the bailout through the International Monetary Fund. In return for this loan, European leaders want the Greeks’ free-spending ways to end immediately if the country is to be prevented from ‘infecting’ the world’s financial system. Naturally, the Greek people are not happy about this.
    In Constitution Square this week, opposite the parliament, I witnessed thousands gathering to campaign against government cuts designed to save the country from bankruptcy. After running battles with riot police, who used tear gas to disperse protesters, thousands are still camped out in the square ahead of a vote by Greek politicians next week on whether to accept Europe-imposed austerity measures. Yet these protesters should direct their anger closer to home — to those Greeks who have for many years done their damndest to deny their country the dues they owe it.
    Take a short trip on the metro to the city’s cooler northern suburbs, and you will find an enclave of staggering opulence. Here, in the suburb of Kifissia, amid clean, tree-lined streets full of designer boutiques and car showrooms selling luxury marques such as Porsche and Ferrari, live some of the richest men and women in the world. With its streets paved with marble, and dotted with charming parks and cafes, this suburb is home to shipping tycoons such as Spiros Latsis, a billionaire and friend of Prince Charles, as well as countless other wealthy industrialists and politicians.
    One of the reasons they are so rich is that rather than paying millions in tax to the Greek state, as they rightfully should, many of these residents are living entirely tax-free. Along street after street of opulent mansions and villas, surrounded by high walls and with their own pools, most of the millionaires living here are, officially, virtually paupers. How so? Simple: they are allowed to state their own earnings for tax purposes, figures which are rarely challenged. And rich Greeks take full advantage. Astonishingly, only 5,000 people in a country of 12 million admit to earning more than £90,000 a year — a salary that would not be enough to buy a garden shed in Kifissia. Yet studies have shown that more than 60,000 Greek homes each have investments worth more than £1m, let alone unknown quantities in overseas banks, prompting one economist to describe Greece as a ‘poor country full of rich people’.
    Manipulating a corrupt tax system, many of the residents simply say that they earn below the basic tax threshold of around £10,000 a year, even though they own boats, second homes on Greek islands and properties overseas. And, should the taxman rumble this common ruse, it can be dealt with using a ‘fakelaki’ — an envelope stuffed with cash. There is even a semi-official rate for bribes: passing a false tax return requires a payment of up to 10,000 euros (the average Greek family is reckoned to pay out £2,000 a year in fakelaki.) Even more incredibly, Greek shipping magnates — the king of kings among the wealthy of Kifissia — are automatically exempt from tax, supposedly on account of the great benefits they bring the country.
    Yet the shipyards are empty; once employing 15,000, they now have less than 500 to service the once-mighty Greek shipping lines which, like the rest of the country, are in terminal decline. With Greek President George Papandreou calling for a crackdown on these tax dodgers — who are believed to cost the economy as much as £40bn a year — he is now resorting to bizarre means to identify the cheats. After issuing warnings last year, government officials say he is set to deploy helicopter snoopers, along with scrutiny of Google Earth satellite pictures, to show who has a swimming pool in the northern suburbs — an indicator, officials say, of the owner’s wealth.
    Officially, just over 300 Kifissia residents admitted to having a pool. The true figure is believed to be 20,000. There is even a boom in sales of tarpaulins to cover pools and make them invisible to the aerial tax inspectors. ‘The most popular and effective measure used by owners is to camouflage their pool with a khaki military mesh to make it look like natural undergrowth,‚Äô says Vasilis Logothetis, director of a major swimming pool construction company. ‚ÄòThat way, neither helicopters nor Google Earth can spot them.‚Äô But faced with the threat of a crackdown, money is now pouring out of the country into overseas tax havens such as Liechtenstein , the Bahamas and Cyprus .
    ‘Other popular alternatives include setting up offshore companies in Cyprus or the British Virgin Islands , or the purchase of real estate abroad,’ says one doctor, who declares an income of less than £90,000 yet earns five times that amount. There has also been a boom in London property purchases by Athens-based Greeks in an attempt to hide their true worth from their domestic tax authorities. ‘These anti-tax evasion measures by the government force us to resort to even more detailed tax evasion ploys,’ admits Petros Iliopoulos, a civil engineer.
    Hotlines have been set up offering rewards for people who inform on tax dodgers. Last month, to show the government is serious, it named and shamed 68 high-earning doctors found guilty of tax evasion. ‘We will spare no effort to collect what is due to the state,’ said Evangelos Venizelos, the new Greek finance minister of the socialist ruling party. ‘We promise to draft and apply a new and honest tax system, one that has been needed for decades, so that taxes are duly paid by those who should pay.’
    Yet, already, it is too late. Greece is effectively bust — relying on EU cash from richer northern European countries, but this has been the case ever since the country finally joined the euro in 2001. Two years earlier, the country was barred from entering because it did not meet the financial criteria. No matter: the Greeks simply cooked the books. Two years later, having falsely claimed to have met standards relating to manufacturing and industrial production and low inflation, the Greeks were allowed in.
    Funds poured into the country from across Europe and the Greeks started spending like there was no tomorrow. Money flowed into all areas of public life. As a result, for example, the Greek school system is now an over-staffed shambles, employing four times more teachers per pupil than Finland , the country with the highest-rated education system in Europe . ‘But we still have to pay for tutors for our two children,’ says Helena, an Athens mother. ‘The teachers are hopeless — they seem to spend their time off sick.’
    Although Brussels has now agreed to provide the next stage of its debt payment programme to safeguard the count ry’s immediate economic future, the Greek media still carries ominous warnings that the military may be forced to step in should the country’s foray into Europe end in ignominy, bankruptcy and rising violence. For now, the crisis has simply been delayed. With European taxpayers facing the prospect of saving Greece from bankruptcy for the second year in a row, some say even the £100bn on offer will pay off only the interest on the country’s debts — meaning it will be broke again within two years.
    Meanwhile, there are doom-laden warnings that the collapse of the Greek economy could be the catalyst for another global recession. Perhaps if the Greeks themselves had shown more willingness to tighten their belts and pay taxes due to the state, voters across Europe might not now be feeling such anger towards them. But having strolled the streets of Kifissia, and watched the Greek hordes stream past the honesty boxes on the underground, it does not take a degree in European economics to know when somebody is taking advantage — at our expense.

    ———— end ————-

    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-18 11:53:30

  • #213015

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    The reason why we, the electorate, and in common with the Greeks, are referred to as the collective idiot, is because we can rationalize anything in the cause of self-interest. If the man in the suit says that if we vote for him he will give us big pensions and healthcare then we will vote for him. If he offers a free lunch we will eat it without question because, after all, he has a suit, a ready smile and doesn’t ask us to think.

    Politicians of all nations are a heterogeneous crew with homogeneous ambitions; power and wealth. Politicians represent us because they come from us, they are like us and we are like them; greedy bastards affixed on self-interest. There are some who may take exception to this description and say that they are not greedy and that all they want is a comfortable home, family, health and happiness. Oh really! Greedy bastards.

    Recently the CEO of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, suggested that Greeks could help themselves collectively by paying their taxes. She’s right. Meanwhile it was discovered that Ms. Lagarde doesn’t pay taxes on her salary that is, incidentally, higher than the salary paid to the US President. WTF!

    We live in a world that is entirely unsuitable for idealists with high moral values; after all, had we listened to Gandhi we’d all be speaking German by now. Those of us from the ‘first world’ know that our standards were hard fought and yet are still flawed. We need protection from ourselves; a benign dictatorship [Jesus, are you busy?]. Cool

  • #213023

    celso
    Member

    So Dilma and Tombini, head of the Brazilian Centra Bank both want lower interest rates. Both are PT, she tells him what to do as in lowering the Selic and this brings down the interest rates. Lower rates give us a cheaper Real. Also Brazil gets backdoor inflation through loans from the BNDES. This gov bank loans money to Petrobras which needs 18 billion dollars of fborrowings for the presal each year over the next four years. Bus fare up 12% due to costs. So we get the Real at three as the Euro trades down to under one to the dollar. Falling commodity prices on global slowdown also push down the Real. Don’t forget Guido Mantega, CEO of Petrobars, and Head of the Financas. Hee to wants a cheaper real and lower interest rates…Greeks go out with the Dracma and Spain brings out the peseta…no problem…

  • #213026

    jeb2886
    Member

    Media made it out like the Greeks weren’t going to want to stick around, that this whole austerity thing was bad. Looks like the voters came out and say keep going, we want to stick around in the euro. The real voters know what will happen if they lose the euro. While 25% might be unemployed there, 75% are employed, even if many are taking pay cuts, their standard of living would drop by even more if they left the euro. Everyone might be employed, but their wages would be slashed by 50% maybe 75% as their currency devalues over night. 20% pay cut is better than a 75% pay cut and fighting lots of great inflation.
    Brazil needs to bring down interest rates way down. Economists are all pointing to the huge problems of borrowing at 7%, and here Brazil is at 9.75% until this year, dropping to 9%? It should be in the 5-6% range. Real will take a beating, but long term it’s necessary.

  • #213036

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Media made it out like the Greeks weren’t going to want to stick around, that this whole austerity thing was bad. Looks like the voters came out and say keep going, we want to stick around in the euro. The real voters know what will happen if they lose the euro. While 25% might be unemployed there, 75% are employed, even if many are taking pay cuts, their standard of living would drop by even more if they left the euro. Everyone might be employed, but their wages would be slashed by 50% maybe 75% as their currency devalues over night. 20% pay cut is better than a 75% pay cut and fighting lots of great inflation…

    [/QUOTE]

    The real voters, as you call them – the ones you suggest know what would happen if they exited the Euro – were represented by just 40% of those voting for parties that broadly support the bailout conditions. Those already agreed conditions being: [The mission, should you accept it will be…this message will self-destruct in four seconds].

    Cut 15,000 state sector jobs this year – aiming for 150,000 to be cut by 2015.

    Cut minimum wage by 22%, to about 600 euros a month.

    Pension cut worth 300m euros this year.

    Spending cuts of more than 3bn euros this year.

    Liberalise labour laws to make hiring and firing easier.

    The party with the largest vote, New Democracy, won approximately 29.7% of the vote; hardly a mandate from the people, yet it remains to be seen if, during the next couple of days, a government can be formed. Meanwhile it’s logical to assume that this new government will be cut some slack on the already agreed bailout terms. After all, 60% of the Greek people evidently do not agree with what’s been going on and are therefore likely to take to the streets again in violent protest when they realize that Greece is being run not by government but by the IMF for its own purposes.

    In the final analysis all of this ballyhoo is simple the soupe du jour; both the markets and bank stocks have already discounted a Greek default. It is only the politicians that are clinging on to the European dream by suggesting a nightmare Euro collapse scenario. The Greeks owe hundreds of millions of Euros and will need hundreds of millions more just to keep the State going and to service its debts; loans to repay loans followed by the insanity of yet more and more loans. Both the economy and the political culture are bankrupt. It’s time to stop this pretense and to allow this Greek tragedy to take center stage and face the ugly truth; double screwed!

  • #213037

    jeb2886
    Member

    You’re acting like a 22% wage cut is bad? If they get their own currency in there and it drops by 50% or 80%, they’re taking much larger cuts.
    If a farmer goes to sell his apples for $1 to a local or $5 to someone in germany, they’re selling to the germans. Either way, the locals can’t afford it, if they take a euro pay cut, or take a new currency and get a “pay cut”
    They’ll get out of this mess through further debt reductions, and then redo it all again in 10 more years. They aren’t screwed, they’re living the way they’ve been living for decades or longer.
    The best solution is still to allow some good inflation, allow germany and others to get it, and everyone else just makes less and less. Germans get screwed, but they’re the ones who are going to get screwed anyways, they sold to someone who couldn’t pay.

  • #213039

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]
    …Brazil needs to bring down interest rates way down. Economists are all pointing to the huge problems of borrowing at 7%, and here Brazil is at 9.75% until this year, dropping to 9%? It should be in the 5-6% range. Real will take a beating, but long term it’s necessary.

    [/QUOTE]

    I would suggest that the last thing Brazil needs right now is a lower interest rate. You point about southern European economists [e.g. Spain] pointing to the huge problem of borrowing at 7% is not so much the interest rate but the huge amounts of money borrowed relative to their respective GDPs. In simplistic terms, it’s more tempting to borrow at 1% than at 7%. And therein lays the problem; governments have borrowed way too much just to impress the collective idiot with their prowess. Any fool and his uncle can borrow, or in the North American case, print too much money to the point where debts cannot be repaid without inflation. Everybody should know that it is interest rates that control inflation. Brazil needs low interest rate like it needs a second bowel exit.

  • #213041

    agri2001
    Participant

    @jkennedy- the chart below, courtesy of Telegraph.co.uk, clearly shows that the pro bail out parties received 41.8% combined and the anti bail out received 46.2% and 37% of the eligible voters stayed home.
    There is no way that the Greeks can repay these loans as they are front loaded against them
    Of the latest 160B bail out only 10% of actual euros enters the economy with the rest being electronic euros back to the banks to satisfy the debt.
    Sooo..!! more bail outs are only to pay down the existing debt, its a bloody merry go round
    That is why Tsipras wants to tell Merkel and CO. to go pound sand.
    @Esprit is spot on his analysis of the situation on the ground.
    The only way out for the Greeks is to go back to the Drachma and suffer for 2-3 years until their economy gets put on the straight and narrow or continue with this farce and be indebted for the next 30-40 years or more. Not much of a choice.

  • #213042

    jeb2886
    Member

    What is shows is that more people are learning towards keeping the euro than previously. Not by huge margins, but definitely growth in that area.
    Of course they can’t pay them back. But so what? They borrow, build, repeat, and finally go bankrupt, vs borrow, build, repeat and finally devalue their currency and go bankrupt.
    This isn’t something that greece needs to fix, this is how greece is run. This is something that europe needs to work around.

  • #213045

    celso
    Member

    [QUOTE=Esprit][QUOTE=jkennedy]
    …Brazil needs to bring down interest rates way down. Economists are all pointing to the huge problems of borrowing at 7%, and here Brazil is at 9.75% until this year, dropping to 9%? It should be in the 5-6% range. Real will take a beating, but long term it’s necessary.

    [/QUOTE]

    I would suggest that the last thing Brazil needs right now is a lower interest rate. You point about southern European economists [e.g. Spain] pointing to the huge problem of borrowing at 7% is not so much the interest rate but the huge amounts of money borrowed relative to their respective GDPs. In simplistic terms, it’s more tempting to borrow at 1% than at 7%. And therein lays the problem; governments have borrowed way too much just to impress the collective idiot with their prowess. Any fool and his uncle can borrow, or in the North American case, print too much money to the point where debts cannot be repaid without inflation. Everybody should know that it is interest rates that control inflation. Brazil needs low interest rate like it needs a second bowel exit.

    [/QUOTE] Sorry Esprit, Brazil needs to bring down interest rates to bring down the Real and stop the stupid policies like 20% taking higher bids for locally made shoes. If the Real were 20% lower, lots of jobs would open up and the “custo Brasil” would go away. Tourists would return from Brazil with stuff instead of mainly empty bags. Gov would have more money for infrastructure, health, education and safety. Sure a td of inflation but since the consumer is tapped out with so much debt and most never go abroad, Dilma and the PT will force rates lower and accept a cheaper Real…Workers need jobs and Brazil needs a cheaper Real to create the jobs. Bresser Pereira, go baby go!He has Dilma’s ear and with all of the BNDES loans/stimulus money coming the Real goes to three.

  • #213050

    graham
    Participant

    All of this discussion regarding Greece is most enlightening; however, the ramifications of the eventual “solution” to the crisis in Greece is more symbolic and psychological – in spite of its huge debt Рthan it is actually devastating to the larger eurozone network, IMO. Greece is only 2/3% of the overall GDP of this union.
    What about Spain? It is the 4th biggest economy in the Euro and crisis financial/political crisis has been looming for a long time. The stakes are much higher and the potential to drag the euro zone down is much greater than in Greece. Old guard latinos meet post modern teutonic accounting and both already deserve penalties. The game is afoot, and no matter what happens, credibility in government and big banking is about to receive a big gut check.
    I look forward to the developing dialog as you more than capable pundits kick this one around. We will all certainly learn something as this crisis now takes the field. Greece is a mere warm-up to much deeper line-up.
    As far as Brasil is concerned in all of this, I think it is well position…in spite of itself.

  • #213051

    jeb2886
    Member

    The question is when Germany is going to buckle and make the changes necessary to make all the other european countries competitive. Right now they’re sitting on jobs, money and lots of wealth. They don’t want to change anything, which is understandable.
    None of this is earth shattering and none of this will do more than make media headlines for the next year or so. None of this will lead to doom and gloom, it’s just a matter of working out which solution will be used to fix the problems. None of the countries are going to have a major cultural change that will prevent them from getting back to this position in another 10 years.

  • #213053

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=GreatBallsoFire] Sorry Esprit, Brazil needs to bring down interest rates to bring down the Real and stop the stupid policies like 20% taking higher bids for locally made shoes. If the Real were 20% lower, lots of jobs would open up and the “custo Brasil” would go away. Tourists would return from Brazil with stuff instead of mainly empty bags. Gov would have more money for infrastructure, health, education and safety. Sure a td of inflation but since the consumer is tapped out with so much debt and most never go abroad, Dilma and the PT will force rates lower and accept a cheaper Real…Workers need jobs and Brazil needs a cheaper Real to create the jobs. Bresser Pereira, go baby go!He has Dilma’s ear and with all of the BNDES loans/stimulus money coming the Real goes to three.[/QUOTE]

    Frankly, I do not understand the implied correlation you draw between interest rates and currency exchange rates yet, even if I go along with it, I fail to see how a lower value Real would release any pent up industrial production that you suggest would be forthcoming and released into the global economy. Brazilian products produced by Brazilian skills and innovation? Really?

    Where is the workforce to wield the hammers of industry? You imagine the Brazilian hordes can match the similar hordes of India or the hordes of China in terms of education, skills, motivation and remuneration? Or is it perhaps you may have been in Brazil too long and have been caught up in the grand Brazilian delusion? If political grandiloquence had any substance it could be used to fill the pot holes in what’s left of our roads, alas… Embarrassed

  • #213056

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]The question is when Germany is going to buckle and make the changes necessary to make all the other european countries competitive. Right now they’re sitting on jobs, money and lots of wealth. They don’t want to change anything, which is understandable.

    None of this is earth shattering and none of this will do more than make media headlines for the next year or so. None of this will lead to doom and gloom, it’s just a matter of working out which solution will be used to fix the problems. None of the countries are going to have a major cultural change that will prevent them from getting back to this position in another 10 years.

    [/QUOTE]

    You make me scratch my head and double-think. You say Germany is sitting on jobs, money and lots of wealth and you ask the question, when is it going to buckle and make the changes necessary to make all the other European countries competitive.

    Now I’m blinking rapidly in dismay. Em, tell you what, maybe Germany should say, “Monkey see, monkey do!” because Germany has already set the example to the world: knuckle down, work hard, don’t outsource and domestically produce the quality products that the world needs. Now then, though separated by different languages and alphabets, even the Greeks, although demonstrably incapable of absorbing this simple jewel of example, should be able to understand. They should but they don’t and neither does Brazil. Shocked

  • #213058

    [QUOTE=Grads]What about Spain? It is the 4th biggest economy in the Euro and crisis financial/political crisis has been looming for a long time. The stakes are much higher and the potential to drag the euro zone down is much greater than in Greece. Old guard latinos meet post modern teutonic accounting and both already deserve penalties. The game is afoot, and no matter what happens, credibility in government and big banking is about to receive a big gut check.
    I look forward to the developing dialog as you more than capable pundits kick this one around. We will all certainly learn something as this crisis now takes the field. Greece is a mere warm-up to much deeper line-up.[/QUOTE]
    Well, I’m certainly no pundit, but I think the ‘collective consciousness’ of this forum will provide better insight than the paid ones which appear on the likes of MSNBC and CNN! LOL
    Excellent point about Spain! It’s almost as if this election in Greece is part of the smoke and mirrors trick… “Look over herepeople!” (not over there at Spain)
    From article below: “Fresh data from Spain’s central bank showed the country’s lenders were sitting on the highest level of bad loans in 18 years and that their deposits continued to leak away. The gloomy figures‚Äîand worries that consultants scouring the creaky banking system will find yet more problems‚Äîhelped drive Spanish bond yields deep into territory that is widely viewed as unsustainable.”
    I think that’s the key word in all of this hocus pocus going on (be it EU, EUA, or BR)… is any of it sustainable?!?
    Article link here: Greek Election Results Fade Quickly as Madrid’s Borrowing Costs Set Record
    (FYI: link is from the WSJ, which has the annoying habit of allowing free reading of an article to non-subscribers, and then later blocking the freebie)
    EDIT: Essentially the same article, provided free, with no teaser, by The Irish Times
    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-18 22:21:44

  • #213062

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    We shouldn’t become fixated by percentages on government bonds; the cost of borrowing. By no means does the 7% figure that is bandied about as being unsustainable hold true in every case. Brazil has been paying 12.5% on its debt for years and has handled it quite well. It’s all about manageable and responsible borrowing; being able to afford to service the debt during its term before repayment.

    The PIIGS, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain have simply borrowed too much despite EU rules of agreement while the rest of the members of this motley European club have lent them this money which they, in turn, can ill afford to lose. The politicians have turned Europe into a giant Ponzi scheme of borrowing to lend and lending to repay borrowing costs. Governments have collapsed and been renewed with new faces and policies of denial in the fond hope that, in time, something will turn up; the second coming of the financial messiah – the blessed Bernard Madoff perhaps?

    And so it has come to pass that we now turn on each other; protectionism, currency wars, inflation, slow and low growth, instability, unsustainable sovereign debt and default. The good news is that nobody is sabre rattling, burning books or proffering a final solution. Ermm

  • #213381

    Back to an off-topic topic of this thread… RE investment in Spain.
    Perhaps to be of interest: Spain’s Crisis, Your Opportunity
    Back on topic: I bet a nota cemwe hit 2.25 sometime in July/Aug. Any takers??? Wink

  • #213399

    minhnoir
    Member

    BRICs Biggest Currency Depreciation Since 1998 To Worsen
    By Ye Xie and Michael Patterson – Jun 25, 2012 4:20 AM MT
    The largest emerging markets, whose economies grew more than four-fold in the past decade, are making losers out of everyone from central bankers to Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) as their currencies post the biggest declines since at least 1998.
    For the first time in 13 years, the real, ruble and rupee are weakening the most among developing-nation currencies, while the yuan has depreciated more than in any other period since its 1994 devaluation.
    Brazil’s Fibria Celulose SA (FIBR3), the biggest pulp producer, asked banks to loosen restrictions on dollar loans as the real hit a three-year low.
    Investors are fleeing the four biggest emerging markets, known as the BRICs, after Brazil’s consumer default rate rose to the highest level since 2009, prices for Russian oil exports fell to an 18-month low, India’s budget deficit widened and Chinese home prices slumped. Investors are bracing for more losses as economic growth slows.
    “I am quite bearish,” Stephen Jen, a managing partner at hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP and a former economist at the International Monetary Fund, said in a phone interview from London. “When the global economy and capital flow slow down, it’s going to expose a lot of problems in these countries and make people stop and ask questions. A run on the currency could be particularly ugly.”
    Currencies from Brazil, Russia and India will probably decline at least 15 percent further by year-end, said Jen, the former head of global currency research at Morgan Stanley.
    Brazil’s real lost 12 percent this quarter through June 22, the biggest drop among the 31 most-actively traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
    A weaker real and lower interest rates in Brazil may reduce Coca-Cola Co. (KO)’s second-quarter profit by $30 million, according to JPMorgan. The Atlanta-based company left about $3 billion in cash in Brazil at the end of 2011 to take advantage of the country’s higher interest rates, Chief Financial Officer Gary Fayard said in a conference call in February. Half of the positions were left unhedged, he said.
    Brazil’s central bank President Alexandre Tombini has cut the benchmark Selic rate by 2.5 percentage points this year to 8.5 percent, while the real has depreciated 9.7 percent.
    “All the BRIC looked ugly,” John Taylor, who oversees $3.5 billion as founder of currency hedge fund FX Concepts LLC in New York, said in an phone interview on June 19. The real and ruble will suffer “fairly decent” declines later this year as a global recession spurs investors to buy dollars as a haven, Taylor said.
    After spending most of last year introducing policies to weaken their currencies, emerging-market governments are now working to limit the slide amid capital outflows.
    Brazil’s government pared a tax on overseas loans on June 14 and has used swaps to add dollars to the market. Russia’s central bank sold U.S. currency this month to slow the ruble’s retreat, according to Chairman Sergey Ignatiev. India cut the amount of overseas income companies can hold in foreign exchange last month, spurring them to repatriate earnings. The ownership ceiling on government bonds was raised by $5 billion to $20 billion, the central bank said in an e-mailed statement today.
    Investors withdrew $6.3 billion from Brazil’s stocks and bonds in May, the most since at least 2010, central bank data show.
    Derivatives traders see no sign of a turnaround.
    Wagers on a weaker real on Sao Paulo-based BM&FBovespa’s futures exchange rose to $4.7 billion on June 12, the most since February 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
    A surge in bad loans in Brazil will weaken the real further, said Amit Rajpal, who manages global financial funds for London-based Marshall Wace LLP. The default rate on consumer debt rose to 7.6 percent in April, matching the highest level since December 2009, as lending growth slowed to 18 percent from a record 34 percent in September 2008, according to the central bank.
    “What we’ll see now is basically a full-blown credit problem,” said Rajpal, who predicts rising defaults in Brazil will resemble the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market five years ago.
    Investors are still too bullish on assets in the BRIC nations as Europe’s debt crisis weighs on emerging economies, said Eric Fine, a money manager at Van Eck Global.
    “They will do poorly when the world is doing poorly,” Fine, whose firm oversees about $35 billion, said in a phone interview from New York. “I don’t believe in decoupling.”
    From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-24/brics-biggest-currency-depreciation-since-1998-to-worsen.html

  • #213404

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Throw a stone into the middle of a pond and you get a big splash, a Lehman Moment. Lots of stuff gets wet from the splash yet it takes a little longer for the ripples to reach all extremities of the pond; the BRICS [now including South Africa]. The problem we have today is that we are not quite sure of the size of stone thrown; the importance of which determines the difference between a ripple and a tsunami. We watch and wait as Europe flounders in a financial storm while searching for a bucket large enough to bailout their sinking ship.

    While Brazil has introduced laws designed to curb growth in the value of its currency, such laws may be reversed if deemed necessary. The balance of which may be determined by the cost of servicing both government and corporate dollar debt relative to trade balances.

    Meanwhile, the predicted rising defaults in Brazil …“will resemble the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market five years ago” is a bit far-fetched both in scale of numbers of defaulters and hugely wrong in terms of money; such sums would sink Brazil below the level of Atlantis.

  • #213406

    [QUOTE=Esprit]Meanwhile, the predicted rising defaults in Brazil …“will resemble the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market five years ago” is a bit far-fetched both in scale of numbers of defaulters and hugely wrong in terms of money; such sums would sink Brazil below the level of Atlantis. [/QUOTE]
    Fortunately, Brasilian banks haven’t practiced the same sloppy lending practices, as was done in the US (and which largely precipitated the RE collapse there). Even back in 2008/2009, South Africa was smitting a bit from the woes in the UK and Eurozone, as far as inter-linked economic activity, but internally, the housing market didn’t suffer the defaults like up north. Why? The ZA banks had adapted stringent means tests for those seeking a mortgage.
    While I don’t know if BR banks have the same stringency, if there’s a rise in defaults in the country, it won’t be for the same reason as in the US. Since the concept of significant amounts of credit is still a novelty to the newly arrived members of the middle class, I doubt they truly comprehend the ramifications of just walking away from a loan, be it just a car, or their home. In hand with that, is my doubt that the banks have done little, if anything, to create incentives for managing one’s credit responsibly. An exemplary ‘credit score’ earns you a better loan rate than someone with a ‘score’ that reflects their irresponsibility with credit. AFIK, this concept does not yet exist in Brasil. Correct me if i’m wrong. Anyone.
    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-25 09:55:36

  • #213451

    minhnoir
    Member

    Moody’s Downgrades 28 Spanish Banks On Sovereign Risk
    By Charles Penty and Dakin Campbell – Jun 25, 2012 6:45 PM MT
    Banco Santander SA (SAN) and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA), Spain’s largest lenders, were downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service because of the country’s sovereign debt and souring real-estate loans.
    At least a dozen lenders were lowered to junk status, Moody’s said yesterday in a statement. The ratings company downgraded six banks by four levels and 10 by three grades with the rest getting one- and two-tier declines.
    “In Spain you have a combination of a significant sovereign-debt burden coupled with a collapsing real estate market,” said Bruce Simon, chief investment officer at Los Angeles-based City National Bank, which manages $14 billion in client assets and doesn’t own debt issued by the lenders. “That’s doubling the pressure on Spanish banks.”
    Moody’s issued a three-step reduction in Spain’s credit grade on June 13, citing the debt, a weakening economy and limited access to capital markets. Spain was lowered to Baa3, the lowest investment-grade rating, from A3 and remains on review for a further cut after announcing plans to borrow 100 billion euros ($125 billion) from European Union rescue funds to recapitalize banks.
    The lenders are facing the “reduced creditworthiness” of the nation as well as the “expectation that exposures to commercial real estate (CRE) will likely cause higher losses, which might increase the likelihood that these banks will require external support,” the ratings firm said in its statement.
    Banco Santander
    Banco Santander had its long-term debt rating cut to Baa2 from A3. That’s one step higher than the sovereign rating because of the Madrid-based lender’s geographical diversification and “manageable” level of direct exposure to Spanish debt, Moody’s said. BBVA, based in Bilbao, is rated Baa3, down from A3.
    The ratings company, based in New York, also downgraded 16 Spanish banks on May 17.
    The latest cuts reflect the government’s reduced creditworthiness, which lessens its ability to support the lenders, as well as Moody’s expectation that losses linked to commercial real estate will keep rising, according to yesterday’s statement.
    Moody’s downgraded 15 global banks last week, saying their capital-markets businesses suffered from volatility and the potential for “outsized losses,” according to a statement. The ratings firm also cited the companies’ exposure to Europe. The ratings on Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. (C) were cut to two levels above junk.
    Banking Rescue
    Concern that Spain will struggle to bail out its banks as their loan losses mount has driven up the country’s borrowing costs. The extra yield investors demand to hold Spain’s 10-year bonds rather than German bunds ballooned to 517.4 basis points on June 25 from 479.9 basis points on June 22. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.
    Spain requested the banking bailout in a letter to Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro- area finance ministers.
    Moody’s “views positively the broad-based support measures being introduced by the Spanish government to support the Spanish banking system as a whole,” analysts including Greg Bauer, global banking managing director, said in the statement. The ratings firm will assess the impact of the measures “once the final amount, timing and form of funds flowing to each individual bank are known.”
    Stress Tests
    The government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy published results of stress tests on June 21 that showed Spain’s banks may need as much as 62 billion euros of capital to withstand a worst-case economic scenario.
    Oliver Wyman Ltd. estimated banks would need 51 billion euros to 62 billion euros should Spanish gross domestic product shrink by 6.5 percent over three years and housing prices drop 60 percent from their peak. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants said lenders would need 51.8 billion euros under those conditions.
    The ratio of bad loans to total lending at Spain’s banks surged to 8.72 percent in April, the highest since 1994, from less than 1 percent in 2007, according to Bank of Spain data. Lenders have 184 billion euros of what the regulator terms problematic real estate-related assets after taking property onto their books following the collapse of Spain’s property boom in 2008.
    “Moody’s action was fairly well telegraphed,” said Blake Howells, an analyst at Portland, Oregon-based Becker Capital Management Inc., which oversees $2.3 billion. “The market is well aware of the challenges these banks face.”
    From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-25/moody-s-downgrades-28-spanish-banks-on-sovereign-risk.html

  • #213453

    Ah, yes, Santander….
    If Boris was still around, he could ‘illuminate’ us as to Santander’s connections.
    Yet alas, Boris was banished by the metallic rodent, and is now contently ensconced in his Rio mountain lair/bat cave. He’s no doubt making preparations with Dude (recently banished from the Green-goes Kingdom too) for the coming troll-free age of enlightenment (and fiscal responsibility)….

  • #213457

    Deleted User
    Moderator
  • #213463

    Kevinferno
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    Ah, yes, Santander….

    If Boris was still around, he could ‘illuminate’ us as to Santander’s connections.

    Yet alas, Boris was banished by the metallic rodent, and is now contently ensconced in his Rio mountain lair/bat cave. He’s no doubt making preparations with Dude (recently banished from the Green-goes Kingdom too) for the coming troll-free age of enlightenment (and fiscal responsibility)….

    [/QUOTE] LOLLOL

  • #213473

    graham
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]
    There we have it. Now, what to do with 1)the debt, and 2)big banking golpes?

  • #213490

    Gilmour
    Member

    I’m trying to figure out why those guys try to get banished!! At least for me, I got 10 million things on my agenda every day. Coming here to let off steam is not one of them…..
    Anyway, I don’t think defaults will be anywhere NEAR what happened in the US. Buildings are a little harder to build here, and made with bricks and cement, not disposable items like in the US. There’s also this tendency of Brazilians to live right next to other people, so while there may be sprawl in larger cities, where I live, land if very scarce and very expensive.
    Finally, loans are tougher to get here. I showed Caixa a years worth of bank statements. But they still made it difficult. They told me that they asked for so many requirements because the amount was R$ 300k. They still approved the loan, but I didn’t want it by then…. I had already put 35% down, so I just wanted to find a way to pay cash, which I did.
    Now if I could only scrape up some money or a large sitio/fazendo, I’d be in heaven.

  • #213504

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Grads] [QUOTE=Esprit]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN_1mF-3JTI [/QUOTE]
    There we have it. Now, what to do with 1)the debt, and 2)big banking golpes?[/QUOTE] Where do we go from here? We continue on the current European political path because, well, we are obliged to stay the course as determined by the people who are the most insane and who, while in their stupor, this weight of debt which cannot forget, falls drop by drop upon the heart until, in their own despair and against their will, comes wisdom through the awful truth and reality on the floor of financial marketplace. Vaporise a couple of trillion Euros.

  • #213528

    Gilmour
    Member

    it’s already gone lower I bet because all the currency pairs are now up against the dollar.

  • #213533

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Call me when it breaks 2.10 Yawn…Sleepy

  • #213605

    scotty447
    Member

    [QUOTE=ganeshrkara] 2.00 – 2.20 for 2012 [/QUOTE]
    StarBig%20smile

  • #213664

    Gilmour
    Member

    espirit, that will probably be soon – almost everything is down against the dollar today.
    personally i can’t believe how the aussie dollar has held up so well. i guess they haven’t taken any dilma-esque measures…

  • #213679

    Cici
    Member

    Got $R3.23 to £1 sterling today!! Very happy!!!

  • #213682

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    In some ways the markets remind me of Captain Kirk and his journeys in the Starship Enterprise: to go where no man has gone before. Markets are all about risk/reward analysis but, unfortunately, the European situation is all about the politics of desperate men dancing to the theme of the headless funky chicken; anything can happen during the next few weeks. Should the result of the upcoming European summit have the usual half-assed and regurgitated reform proposals, including further fiscal integration and loss of sovereignty, then I think it’s risk on and a Dollar surge. Ironically, the Dollar is in worse state than the Euro but let’s not let the facts get in the way of a good panic. Brazil and the Real, as always on the fringe, can only have a good time during the good times. Have faith in Murphy’s law

  • #213765

    Gilmour
    Member

    big day today: US unemployment numbers and US quarterly GDP numbers are coming out 09h30 Brasilia-time.

  • #213788

    Gilmour
    Member

    http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2012/06/moodys-rebaixa-rating-de-oito-bancos-brasileiros.html
    so where were the ratings agencies before the subprime blow up in 2008? I doubt they are aware of the extremely high fees at these banks.

  • #213829

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Esprit]Call me when it breaks 2.10 Yawn…Sleepy[/QUOTE]

    Nobody called me! The Real kissed 2.10 today and promptly fell back to 2.07.

  • #213844

    [QUOTE=Esprit][QUOTE=Esprit]Call me when it breaks 2.10 Yawn…Sleepy[/QUOTE]

    Nobody called me! The Real kissed 2.10 today and promptly fell back to 2.07.[/QUOTE]

    HA! When I checked, it was at 2.09, and was anticipating to come ‘knock you up’ Esprit… LOL

    Didn’t see that it then fell back… Angry

    I say we’ll see that 2.10, and even higher, after the holiday next week in the US. Maybe some real financial fireworks will go off somewhere. Who knows?!

    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-28 19:13:59

  • #213845

    jeb2886
    Member

    The real fireworks will begin if the interest rate goes from 9% to 8% or 7%!
    That is when money will pour out.

  • #213848

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]The real fireworks will begin if the interest rate goes from 9% to 8% or 7%!
    That is when money will pour out.
    [/QUOTE]
    I always like to go the opposite direction of the crowds…. My stack of chips is ready to ‘pour in’. Wink

  • #213849

    jeb2886
    Member

    Of course, following the herd never yields any great wins. Either lead the herd, or sell into the herds direction.

  • #213852

    Kitemare
    Member

    My money is on a return to 1.9/1.8, if the 2.10 holds. Otherwise, 2.3 or higher. To get there, though, would require some major problems and some major risk off. If Europe can sort any of its @#@# out, that will bring the risk trade back on and some serious Euro short covering; Real will follow.

  • #213854

    jeb2886
    Member

    It will only return to 1.9/1.8 if interest rates go up. It moves a bit when there are problems over in Europe, but that is just a proxy. It will move quickly if interest rates change in Brazil, and it will move by a good margin too.

  • #213860

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    No doubt that the Brazilian interest rate matters in context however, given the current rate when compared to any other alternative haven; it’s still one of the best deals in town. No, I believe that the Real’s problem has a lot to do with the European economy’s woes together with the rest of the world’s slowdown combined with an exhausted Brazilian economic plan, credit problems and a ‘tapped out’ middleclass. I strongly suspect that Brazil is rapidly approaching or is already in recession. The problem? The high cost of doing business, the tax laws and lack of infrastructure. Surely the bubble will pop sooner rather than later?

  • #213861

    [QUOTE=Esprit]Surely the bubble will pop sooner rather than later? [/QUOTE]
    Be it a popping bubble of growth (in virtually all the BRICS), or a bursting dam of debt (EU/EUA), it seems to be all coming to a head simultaneously, doesn’t it? Do we perhaps have a ‘perfect storm’ forming?!?
    Batten down the hatches! Boris is laughing now, having stockpiled cases of scotch and toilet paper…. LOL

  • #213862

    jeb2886
    Member

    The brazilian economy makes the most difference to the currency. Interest is probably one of the leading reasons. While the currency might offer some very attractive returns, it’s not as high as it once was. Spain is now in the 7% range, other countries are getting up there, and if Brazil drops it’s rate to 8% or 7%, that will put it into a whole different light.
    High inflation, and high interest rates require companies to grow quickly, make money fast and for profits to be huge to overcome major issues. You can’t borrow at 12% for your companies growth, if your profit margins are 10%.
    EU/US debt problems require nothing more than a change in policies and doing business. They still produce, they still have lots of people employed, they still have low inflation, plenty of people willing to lend to them, and huge manufacturing economies. People aren’t going to black list them if they change their policies, where as a small economy might be black listed by international investors.

  • #213864

    [QUOTE=jkennedy] Interest is probably one of the leading reasons. While the currency might offer some very attractive returns, it’s not as high as it once was.[/QUOTE]

    Less than 10 years ago, it was over 25%! Can you f-kn imagine?!?
    Cry

    Now take a look at 1999… over 40%! Viva Las Vegas!!! Gives new meaning to the lyrics “Gonna party like it’s nineteen ninety-nine”….LOL

    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-29 00:43:32

  • #213868

    Gilmour
    Member

    I don’t know what the exchange rate is now, but all of the major pairs are UP against the dollar. This is the 2nd “night” in a row that this has happened: a big move before the European markets even open. Well, if anyone was short, they gotta be hatin’ life right about now. Blah.. I still think the long-term picture has changed, especially in the case of Brazil.

  • #213872

    agri2001
    Participant

    The real strengthened against the dollar at end of day yesterday because the CB announced a dollar swap of 60.000 contracts to take place today.
    So much for the weak currency that is parroted by the Brazilian talking heads such as Mantega.

  • #213875

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]The brazilian economy makes the most difference to the currency. Interest is probably one of the leading reasons. While the currency might offer some very attractive returns, it’s not as high as it once was. Spain is now in the 7% range, other countries are getting up there, and if Brazil drops it’s rate to 8% or 7%, that will put it into a whole different light.

    High inflation, and high interest rates require companies to grow quickly, make money fast and for profits to be huge to overcome major issues. You can’t borrow at 12% for your companies growth, if your profit margins are 10%.

    EU/US debt problems require nothing more than a change in policies and doing business. They still produce, they still have lots of people employed, they still have low inflation, plenty of people willing to lend to them, and huge manufacturing economies. People aren’t going to black list them if they change their policies, where as a small economy might be black listed by international investors.
    [/QUOTE]

    In the first instance one mustn’t confuse central bank interest rates with yield rates for the sale of sovereign debt such as that currently demanded in the case of Spain or any of the other ‘Club Med’ collection of losers and deadbeats. In reality the major proportion of such bond sales are being taken up by the European Central Bank schemes with their Ponzi money. Private investors have long memories and therefore have perfect recollection of the very recent ‘haircut’ of up to 70% on Greek sovereign debt. Nobody is willing to lend money to these desperate and delusional politicians.

    It should be the highlight of every thought that, unlike the United States where quantitative easing [printing money] and increasing debts that cannot ever be made good is their only survival mechanism, however the European Union cannot simply print more and more Euros to cover their expanding debt burden; such fraudulent luxury will always be in the hands of those whose currency is the global benchmark. Investors in American sovereign debt do so in the knowledge that while they are getting negative returns, they feel that at least they will still have their dollars at the end of the day; the safe risk haven that is the Dollar’s only dubious strength in this current currency war.

    Finally, to suggest that EU/US debt problems require nothing more than a change in policies, might I suggest that you offer this gem of insight to these respective governments that are, in the case of Europe, currently conducting their 20thsummit meeting in an attempt to resolve their problems or, in the case of the US, their 4thor 5thPresident. Confused

    Esprit2012-06-29 09:18:07

  • #213882

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    The so-called good news coming out of the European summit has dropped the rate to 2.03.Tongue

  • #213885

    Gilmour
    Member

    Hmm.. ok.. so that’s why everything shot up. Amazing how European interest rates affect EVERY otherfreakin currency. I think this is even more of a reason why you can’t listen to prevailing “wisdom”. The wisdom I’m talking about is that currencies go up when rates rise and on positive data from fundamental announcements.
    With that logic, the Euro should have been toast, and dragging all of the other currencies along with it. Instead, they lower the rates and it rockets up.

  • #213886

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    2.01 and falling…

  • #213893

    jeb2886
    Member

    The so called good news is a start in the change in how the government will do business over there. The policy changes that everyone said were necessary.
    You get very confused over how you personally must deal with money and how money is part of a policy of a country. Yes if the US was you, it could never pay back the money. However, since the US is a government and money is part of it system, they can tweak the system so it’s in their advantage. Money is nothing more than a way for the public to trade services easily. In the event they need a new law, they create it. In the event that the government can’t create necessary services and/or keep money moving correctly to make it easy to exchange services, they change it. The US still has the best track record in the world, the largest user base and the largest manufacturing base to support it. Even a tweak won’t do anything terrible to it.
    You are correct, if you have a debt, you must pay it back. We can all agree on that.

  • #213894

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    One has to chuckle… All the markets have bounced up on the latest, greatest innovation coming out of the European summit: Europe will bailout banks directly rather than give the money to the individual governments which would, in turn, bailout its banks. This of course means that governments won’t see their sovereign debt rise and will be seen as less risky and therefore be able to borrow again more cheaply. Of course any money lent to banks is now at a substantially greater risk of not being paid back but that’s okay because whilst a bank can default and go bust, a country within the EU cannot. Yippee, the Euro zone has been saved for another month or so! Stern%20Smile

  • #213897

    jeb2886
    Member

    Banks can go belly up, that isn’t seen as a problem by the public. So that is a good work around. A rule change, that keeps things going. If banks go under, then investors lose out.

  • #213898

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]The so called good news is a start in the change in how the government will do business over there. The policy changes that everyone said were necessary.

    You get very confused over how you personally must deal with money and how money is part of a policy of a country. Yes if the US was you, it could never pay back the money. However, since the US is a government and money is part of it system, they can tweak the system so it’s in their advantage. Money is nothing more than a way for the public to trade services easily. In the event they need a new law, they create it. In the event that the government can’t create necessary services and/or keep money moving correctly to make it easy to exchange services, they change it. The US still has the best track record in the world, the largest user base and the largest manufacturing base to support it. Even a tweak won’t do anything terrible to it.

    You are correct, if you have a debt, you must pay it back. We can all agree on that.

    [/QUOTE]

    There has been no change regarding how governments will do business over there. There have been no policy changes made; least the ones ‘everyone’ said that were necessary [?]. Stop watching the Disney Channel. Tongue

    And yes, I agree with you; the US government can never repay its debts and will continue to tweak the system. Frankly, given your financial and fiscal theories, I question the reason why the IRS exists at all. All they have to do is just tweak [read, jack] off the problem. LOL

  • #213900

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]Banks can go belly up, that isn’t seen as a problem by the public. So that is a good work around. A rule change, that keeps things going. If banks go under, then investors lose out.
    [/QUOTE]

    Not a problem! What about confidence in the banking system without which nothing functions?

    What about bank deposit guarantees underwritten by the governments [taxpayers]?

  • #213904

    jeb2886
    Member

    In the US all banks pay into the fund which ensures the deposits are guaranteed.
    The system can be tweaked, however, most people hold 2 things as holly, money is money and how they treat it is the way the government should try it, and that governments don’t fail, they might be crappy but don’t fail.
    This overcomes essentially both of those, and now lets the government move onto other measures to protect itself, without breaking the publics perception of money or their governments.

  • #213906

    agri2001
    Participant

    OK girls, party is over, for the 2.10 mark.
    Probably see 1.90+- before anything close to 2.10 in the near future

  • #213907

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=jkennedy]In the US all banks pay into the fund which ensures the deposits are guaranteed.

    The system can be tweaked, however, most people hold 2 things as holly, money is money and how they treat it is the way the government should try it, and that governments don’t fail, they might be crappy but don’t fail.

    This overcomes essentially both of those, and now lets the government move onto other measures to protect itself, without breaking the publics perception of money or their governments.

    [/QUOTE]

    All the more pity then that the US financial system didn’t have a ‘fund’ to underwrite the catastrophic collapse it inflicted on the world; the US is full of it! Tweaks, indeed! Ouch

  • #213910

    [QUOTE=Esprit]

    2.01 and falling…[/QUOTE]

    Where’s the emoticon for nausea?! Dead

    EDIT: Meh… the market was up today, so dollar always falls in market upswings. What goes up, must come down (and vice-versa). LOL

    Gringo.Floripa2012-06-29 15:39:29

  • #213932

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    Get your dollars in while it’s still two for the price one…Pinch

  • #213933

    hoganti
    Member

    drop drop drop….come on real!

  • #213936

    kim
    Participant

    2 for 1 is fine caras! stop being bloody greedy! I’m super happy if it stays around where it is at the moment.

  • #213951

    Gilmour
    Member

    My bet is that it’s a temporary move up in order to go lower.
    The key is to listen to the media. If they act like it’s all clear in EuroLand, look out below.If the fear continues, then it will probably go higher.

  • #213974

    [QUOTE=spongebob]My bet is that it’s a temporary move up in order to go lower.[/QUOTE]
    I’m with ya on that one SB! You’re the chart guy, but when I look at the graph of the one year spread of USD:BRL, I don’t think we’ve yet seen the peak of this present rise. In fact, I’m gonna go with GBoF’s prediction that we willsee 3.0, sometime in 2012….

  • #213978

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=spongebob]My bet is that it’s a temporary move up in order to go lower.

    The key is to listen to the media. If they act like it’s all clear in EuroLand, look out below.If the fear continues, then it will probably go higher.

    [/QUOTE]

    Bob, in the name of sanity, the chatter coming out of this last European summit is just a distraction drawn with teaser technicalities; the unsustainable economic problems persist and remain absolutely unaltered. The market reaction today is simply a knee jerk response to all the pent up need for movement. The markets need movement up or down. Any excuse will activate the city’s barrow boys and their lust for gold dust and it doesn’t matter which direction taken because positions [bets] are taken not only hoping for gains but also for losses; it’s all a corrupt and dysfunctional circus during these times.

    Next week the markets will realise that Brazil won’t be exporting any more or less to Europe because of the summit. China won’t be buying greater volumes of Brazilian commodities nor will the US in contracting economies. Now what does this mean for the Brazilian currency? Who the hell knows other than to say this: Brazil enjoys one of the strongest financial positions in its ranking as the 6thlargest economy, yet that may not be saying much in these troubled times. Maybe Monday will break through and test the 1.90s but it shouldn’t go in too deep. After that… Wacko

  • #213991

    Gilmour
    Member

    Since the markets are counter-intertuitive, I’m not even paying attention to daily charts now. I’m waiting to hear people moan and groan that the Real is going to get really strong again. Then it will do the opposite.
    I think it was Dunga that told me I was crazy because Real and Euro are not the same. They aren’t, but the directional moves are usually the same. Really, it’s everything AGAINST the US Dollar.
    Espirit, that 6th largest economy thing has gone to the Brazilians’ heads.

  • #214050
  • #214051

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]

    US Dollar History Shows High Risk of Reversal on Post-Summit Plunge

    [/QUOTE]

    “Yet even the purest of market technicians would agree that the coming week of fundamental event risk could make or break USDOLLAR price action through the foreseeable future.”

    A fundamental event risk? You mean like having your mother-in-law put her tongue in your mouth or have a follow-through fart? Let us agree that currency exchange rates can be nonsensical when left to the traders.

  • #214053

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]

    US Dollar History Shows High Risk of Reversal on Post-Summit Plunge

    [/QUOTE]
    I remember the day that they said, and I said that ^^^ above. That move was retraced more than 100%. I can’t say that it didn’t totally come out of nowhere, but the move on Friday did…. it started when everyone was asleep and then continued for the rest of the morning.
    The “trick” is going to be seeing how people react to it. Only time will tell….

  • #214104

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    We’re in the 1.90s. Predictions as to how close we’ll be to 1.95 by close of business?

  • #214107

    I’m going to go out on a limb and predict by the EOM, we’ll be at 2.25 Big%20smile

  • #214109

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    I’m going to go out on a limb and predict by the EOM, we’ll be at 2.25 Big%20smile

    [/QUOTE]

    I was thinking by the end of the day, not the end of the month. Hmm. So you’re obviously anticipating a fundamental risk event; Germany invades Greece or Sarah Palin’s moose gun confiscated in connection with Obama assassination plot. LOL

  • #214112

    agri2001
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Esprit][QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    I’m going to go out on a limb and predict by the EOM, we’ll be at 2.25 Big%20smile
    [/QUOTE]

    I was thinking by the end of the day, not the end of the month. Hmm. So you’re obviously anticipating a fundamental risk event; Germany invades Greece or Sarah Palin’s moose gun confiscated in connection with Obama assassination plot. LOL

    [/QUOTE]
    Not if fat man Tombini has his way….
    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120702-706157.html

    To counter the weakening of its currency, Brazil’s central bank has been stepping up intervention in the market, holding auctions to put more dollars in the market. Last week the bank held three swap auctions, selling the equivalent of $9 billion in contracts.

    Although $3 billion of those were to replace expiring contracts, the rest was new money, serving to some analysts as “a clear signal” that the government will prevent any weakening of the real beyond the level of BRL2.10 to the dollar, which it touched last week.

  • #214113

    [QUOTE=Esprit]So you’re obviously anticipating a fundamental risk event[/QUOTE]
    Take your pick: Implode-Explode

  • #214116

    Deleted User
    Moderator

    [QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa] [QUOTE=Esprit]So you’re obviously anticipating a fundamental risk event[/QUOTE]

    Take your pick: Implode-Explode

    [/QUOTE]

    Bloody hell! This must be how Moses saw it when he came down from the mountain.

    Warning: After Obama starts his second term, under no circumstances should the fan be switched on. Shocked

  • #214125

    Gilmour
    Member

    [QUOTE=agri2001][QUOTE=Esprit][QUOTE=Gringo.Floripa]
    I’m going to go out on a limb and predict by the EOM, we’ll be at 2.25 Big%20smile
    [/QUOTE]

    I was thinking by the end of the day, not the end of the month. Hmm. So you’re obviously anticipating a fundamental risk event; Germany invades Greece or Sarah Palin’s moose gun confiscated in connection with Obama assassination plot. LOL

    [/QUOTE]
    Not if fat man Tombini has his way….
    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120702-706157.html

    To counter the weakening of its currency, Brazil’s central bank has been stepping up intervention in the market, holding auctions to put more dollars in the market. Last week the bank held three swap auctions, selling the equivalent of $9 billion in contracts.

    Although $3 billion of those were to replace expiring contracts, the rest was new money, serving to some analysts as “a clear signal” that the government will prevent any weakening of the real beyond the level of BRL2.10 to the dollar, which it touched last week.

    [/QUOTE]
    Clear nonsense. The Brazilian Central bank knows that they can’t truly prevent anything, either an increase or decrease. The market will win every time. Look at things in 95, 98, 03, 08, 10….
    Gringo.Floripa, you could always buy the futures contact! Wink
    I have to really resist gambling urges sometimes. Like now, I’m going out, but the Euro is at 1,25883. I bet it will end up around 1,25700. I could take a small position. Is it worth it? Naahhh.. even if I’m right, it’s a break in discipline.

  • #214129