Is now a good time to sell?
Printed From: Gringoes.com
Category: Brazil
Forum Name: Buying/Renting Property
Forum Discription: All about buying, renting, and constructing property in Brazil
URL: http://www.gringoes.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=14828
Printed Date: 22 May 2013 at 22:49
Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 8.05a - http://www.webwizforums.com
Topic: Is now a good time to sell?
Posted By: Boycie
Subject: Is now a good time to sell?
Date Posted: 20 March 2012 at 20:47
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I'm really close to putting my apartment on the market because we really want to move in to a house, we always said we would sell after a few years and my senses are telling me now would be a good time to sell it. However its a bloody hard thing to do when we have a perfectly nice home to live in and with the prospect of going back in to rented (we all know what that hell of a game is like in Brazil) it makes it a hard thing chew. Luckily we don't have kids yet but buying in the bubble of a market as well is a hard thing to navigate... Any advice would be welcome, I know we can't predicted the future but putting more money in to property here? is it the thing to do? or should we hold back a year. ------------- "every 15 years Brazil forgets its last 15 years." writer Ivan Lessa |
Replies:
Posted By: Segundavida
Date Posted: 20 March 2012 at 21:29
| My simplified response to this conundrum would be, Good time to sell, Bad time to buy with the caveat of Capital gains taxes depending on whether your property value exceeds the exemption amount and you have not made another sale of like property in the last 5 years.This can be avoided if you reinvest in another property within 6 months. Perhaps the more relevant question would be, are you willing to ignore the economics of the market in order to have a better life style? Boris would have a more difinitive overview no doubt but that is my 2 centavos mate. |
Posted By: Boycie
Date Posted: 20 March 2012 at 21:49
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Thank you for your sensible answer Segundavida, I am willing to ignore the economics of the market to a degree because I see a house as a home, i.e long term and generally I see apartments as sort term. The other small issue that has held us back slightly is mostly the people selling houses in the areas we wouldn't mind living in Rio are not in any rush to sell them because most of the time they have been there so long and are used to living in proximity to favelas and having a short drive to put up with to get to shops/amenities. I have had a house owner come look at our apartment in an attempt to do a trade, but unfortunately due to the size of her massive house and my normal sized 2 bed apartment, it made it hard for her to come down a bit on her property although she did give a fair evaluation of my apartment.(If she had come down of her price I would have traded for sure) This leads me to belief selling first and waving the cash could be wiser? but then like you said if it goes over 6 months and we haven't closed on some thing we like... the rest is history I wish I'd had the courage 2.5 years ago when I could have bought an amazing house for R$700k... but I guess every body who's been here for that time or long has the same blights. ------------- "every 15 years Brazil forgets its last 15 years." writer Ivan Lessa |
Posted By: Segundavida
Date Posted: 20 March 2012 at 22:22
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In your position I would be tempted to sell now rent a house and wait out the enevitable downturn in the market. Even if you have to bite the bullet on the cap gain taxes the reduction in prices that is sure to come will more then make up for that. I saw an article concerning discounts of up to 36% by major developers in SP recently which seems to indicate the glut of apartments is already having an impact however this may not apply to house prices which is a different market. The market in Rio specifically seems out of whack by any standards to me but as usual it's all about supply and demand. In the rarefied atmosphere of the Rio market anything can happen, after all they do call it the "Cidade Maravilhosa". I should think one would want to consider what the market will be like after the world cup and perhaps 5 years out from now. |
Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 21 March 2012 at 03:27
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SELL SELL SELL ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |
Posted By: jkennedy
Date Posted: 21 March 2012 at 18:32
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I'll toss in my previous advice. If you can rent for significantly less than you can buy for, rent it and put the rest of the money in savings/investment. I only know the more touristy areas of Rio, but from those, it appears they are heavily land locked. Not much in terms of further growth. Those will likely see the smallest decreases in prices, as they've got an influx of buyers who are willing to pay the higher prices. Elsewhere, places where building and land aren't as limited, prices could really tumble. Alternatively, you could hold onto the apartment (possibly let it sink with the rest of the market if it drops) and then buy into the cheaper housing market. You'll get far less for your apartment, but you'll be selling/buying in the same market. If the market does crash, cash will be king. If you've got cash to buy right now, then your apartment + cash might get you that nice house. ------------- There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next http://www.braziltravelbuddy.com/Curitib/City - Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started! |
Posted By: nikkij12185
Date Posted: 21 March 2012 at 18:46
Are you willing to wait A year? Or 4-6? I see a big bubble in the Z. Oeste (Barra, Recreio, Jacarepagua), but I don't see the prices dropping hugely in the Z. Sul. As JK said, it is landlocked and limited. It is what most Brazilians dream of, seeing it on tv everyday in the novelas, and will continue to be popular among foreigners as well. If you are looking at houses in say, Itanhaga, I think that area has room to go up. Otherwise, I would wait to buy in the Z. Oeste. Similarly, I would not buy in Santa Teresa. I think that area has seen a big jump and a big bubble. If you are looking at an area like Alto da Boa Vista, for example, I'd say buy. I think people will get sick of living off in "apartamentos chiques" in Barra and that neighborhood will see a revival in the future. Somewhere like Gavea or Jardim Botanico you are looking at an even trade, since you live in the Z. Sul (the prices there should move around the same +/- as the price of your apt). |
Posted By: Bubbles
Date Posted: 03 April 2012 at 12:00
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Nikki - prices in Itanhanga have also gone up substantially! Whilst the % gain may not be as much as apts in Zona Sul, as houses there were expensive anyway a 50% rise would more than equate monetarily to the 100% rise seen in Zona Sul. As an example I know a house that was on offer for R$1.5mm in 2010 - its now on for R$2.3mm* Having said that I do agree with Nikki in that there's more to come - especially with the Metro in construction closeby.
* Boycie - this is the property you saw in March 2010 :-)
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Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 03 April 2012 at 13:19
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Well with the improved infrastructure being developed you're inclined to feel an improvement among neighbourhoods, perhaps Rio, is trying to become the new SP.
But, yes, how many years from now could that take to achieve? ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |
Posted By: nonure1206
Date Posted: 27 April 2012 at 12:15
Boris would have a more difinitive overview no doubt but that is my 2 centavos mate. 
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Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 27 April 2012 at 14:55
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??? ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |
Posted By: jacare
Date Posted: 27 April 2012 at 16:49
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http://brazilianbubble.com/do-you-hear-that-pop-home-prices-in-sao-paulo-drop-5-2-in-january/ - Do you hear that “pop”? Home prices in Sao Paulo drop 5.2% in January By Brazilian Bubble On April 25, 2012 · 1 Comment "The average home prices in the State of São Paulo fell by 5.2% in January when compared to December, according to the Regional Council of Realtors in the State of São Paulo (Creci-SP). The latest Creci-SP survey (full report can be downloaded below) indicates that the monthly price decline was the first since last September, when prices fell 4.36%. Still, for the last 12 months ending in January, the average home price increased 17.96%. “Despite this January decline, the market should not have a sequence of price decreases in 2012,” says the Creci-SP President Jose Augusto NetoViana. He said the fall in prices in January is traditionally influenced by seasonal factors and it usually fails to set a trend. “Off-season is not a time worth of using in trend forecasts,” he said. Sales and rentals Still according to Creci-SP, the volume of homes sold in São Paulo fell 18.37% in January. The volume of homes rentals in January shot up 24.11%. Full report (in portuguese) below…" But Boycie, in your case, your home, I would say no. Just put it on the market at a ridiculously high price, like everyone else, and who knows, maybe you will win the lotto. ------------- Em rio de piranha jacaré nada de costas. |
Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 27 April 2012 at 17:37
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you'll sell sooner than you think! :) ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |
Posted By: GreatBallsoFire
Date Posted: 27 April 2012 at 18:20
 ------------- Simia quam similis, turpissimus bestia nobis. Oi amigo, pode trazer a saideira? |
Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 29 April 2012 at 17:27
Things take time, Brazilian time!  ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |
Posted By: frank4000
Date Posted: 30 April 2012 at 17:39
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I think now is a good time to sell. I been apartments in highend areas coming off there prices by as much as 7 %. ------------- Meu Vizinho Jogou um semente no seu quintal |
Posted By: frank4000
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 03:00
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http://br.finance.yahoo.com/noticias/custo-constru%C3%A7%C3%A3o-sobe-r-964-161900794.html
check out this link construction cost are out of the realm of logico ------------- Meu Vizinho Jogou um semente no seu quintal |
Posted By: Bubbles
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 05:44
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Posted By: frank4000
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 07:37
some areas of Sao paulo. I noticed some apartments in Villa Mariana and Moema. ------------- Meu Vizinho Jogou um semente no seu quintal |
Posted By: kevbo
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 11:15
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Assuming the house you intend to buy will be more expensive than your current flat, if everyone is right and prices are falling, now is not the right time to sell. All things being equal the price of the house will fall by more than the price of your flat.
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Posted By: frank4000
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 14:20
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Depends on your point of view kevbo. Whether you see the glass as half full or empty. ------------- Meu Vizinho Jogou um semente no seu quintal |
Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 14:28
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I don't see the potential for prices falling that dramatically, it just won't happen. The reason prices are lowering is because of the frantic environment in which people want to make a profit. The RE inflation value is so heavy that people are still going to make a good buck selling now, even at a lower price than formally thought.
The trick is to find a 'flat' of greater value but with good surrounding infastructure (supermarket, school, transportation, shops) etc. If you have that I doubt you would see the value of your, new flat, decrease at all. ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |
Posted By: jkennedy
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 14:47
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Housing prices correct all the time. People get over excited and start bidding things up. Contractors, builders and investors see major opportunity to buy and flip. Generally new housing costs more than buying used. Land goes up, Structure comes down. When those paths cross, builders go nuts and over build, thinking they're not going to be the last fool left with inventory. Prices comes down when inventory far exceeds supply. Then everyone's prices come down. ------------- There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next http://www.braziltravelbuddy.com/Curitib/City - Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started! |
Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 14:59
What are you in your first Micro-econ class?  The volume has not exceed demand whatsoever. This sort of happened in Canada, yet, prices are still of another planet. Especially considering the economic circumstances of Brazil with middle class purchasing power growing a long with GDP. There's nothing concrete to suggest property values will react like the US. Everyone is still just scared, because they're American, not because they're brazilian and experience economic boom. The housing prices in Rio and SP have long been above the norm, how can you expect a house crash in the two most desirable cities in the country, perhaps among the world....?  ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |
Posted By: Amsterdam
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 15:08
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Crazy but that is what i have found, alot. Also some other advice is never buy off plan unless the builder has a very good reputation, i have a Brazilian friend who is still chasing a builder through the courts ten years on for a house which was never built, be careful, the builder went bankrupt, its rare but it happens. |
Posted By: jkennedy
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 15:11
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Housing in Vancouver took a hit after the winter olympics, they expected to just sell off huge numbers of condos that they used to house all the participants and flooded the market. It's really simply to figure out if housing is getting out of control or not, and by how much. 1) How much could you rent the same place for? 1:1 is a good buying signal 2) If you were to get a loan for the full amount of the place, could you even afford the mortgage payment? Or does it require a huge influx of cash from elsewhere to buy this. * Should be a working class neighbourhood. ------------- There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next http://www.braziltravelbuddy.com/Curitib/City - Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started! |
Posted By: frank4000
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 15:18
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Logical Jkennedy. I would wait to see what happens after 2014 world cup before I get excited.
------------- Meu Vizinho Jogou um semente no seu quintal |
Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 15:25
This establishes the common sense that reins supreme in Brazil; if you're stupid you'll likely suffer for it. If you're not the aggressive negotiating type then beware. If you're buying a modestly priced house, have the proper appraisal performed and use that in your buying strategy. If you're selling then you have to wait it out, just like in any other place.... The prices, inflated or not, you're still bound to make a nice buck!
Uhh, they are still selling a long the seawall for a million-plus for all of those condos. Vancouver is unique as it has a massive market of foreign investors, mostly asian, to sustain itself. If you don't mind, I'd like to see where you came across such info? Maybe they sold later than expected, but I assure you there is nothing going on around there that is selling for anything shy of ridiculous..  ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |
Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 15:25
Buy now or sell now, after the 2014 it will slow down, certainly! ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |
Posted By: jkennedy
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 15:31
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Usually selling starts before the event, not after. Who tells you to sell after the event? Everyone. Therefore, you need to sell before everyone else gets going on it. Selling in Brazil can take awhile, therefore, selling quite a bit earlier would be prudent. In Vancouver, I have many friends there, including several family members with not only properties but investments. They have decreased in prices a bit, not horrendously, but the city did have a hard time dumping all those olympic places, the city thought they were going to make a profit off the whole thing and they apparently didn't. ------------- There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next http://www.braziltravelbuddy.com/Curitib/City - Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started! |
Posted By: Gringodude
Date Posted: 03 May 2012 at 15:37
Uhh dumping 1100 condos on the market at one time when prices are already well above insane is going to draw negative attention. The false creek area is still among the most desirable in the country. And the condos are selling for average prices. I still don't see any profit lost, only extended time preferences for dumping those units... ------------- Keeping the BrazilianLifestyle "Have a great day everyone" - Ray "You know who you are, now go and reflect!" - Esprit |