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| Investing in Brazil | |
Topic: exchange rate predictions for 2010 |
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Esprit
Gringoes.com Guru
Joined: 28 January 2010 Location: Brazil Online Status: Offline Posts: 2407 |
![]() Posted: 06 April 2011 at 19:03 |
Em, I think you’ll find that the German Finance Minister departed from the norm of diplomatic polite speak when he described American policy as ‘crazy.’ Where have you been! And I can’t agree with you that nobody cares about what the US does with its currency or how its government is run. Look around you, read, listen and discover. You appear to suffer from an arrogance derived from denial. |
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Esprit
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jkennedy
Senior Member
Joined: 04 November 2009 Location: United States Online Status: Offline Posts: 1062 |
![]() Posted: 06 April 2011 at 19:16 |
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Oh the german finance minister said it was crazy? Why would he care what happens to the USD. Oh because it'll RUIN the germany economy if the USD is allowed to slide into nothing.
Huge difference between people saying the US is crazy, and ALLOWING the US to actually execute it's plans. HUGE difference. You appear to suffer from easy media manipulation. You seem to think because a country is ruining it's currency, that others will let it go unchecked. |
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There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started!
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Esprit
Gringoes.com Guru
Joined: 28 January 2010 Location: Brazil Online Status: Offline Posts: 2407 |
![]() Posted: 06 April 2011 at 19:43 |
Well I’m glad that you finally agree that the country is ruining its currency and that others are trying desperately not to let it go unchecked. We have to remember in all this that America is of vital importance to the world; were this not the case we’d be laughing at it in the same way we laugh at that other crazy guy in Zimbabwe. As to media manipulation and its myriad of half truths and outright lies, let’s concern ourselves with the reality of the exchange rates; hard cash! |
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Esprit
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jkennedy
Senior Member
Joined: 04 November 2009 Location: United States Online Status: Offline Posts: 1062 |
![]() Posted: 06 April 2011 at 20:28 |
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There are really 2 currency rates as I see them. The value which a government can get for it's currency and the value that other countries won't let it slip below.
During the Clinton years, he let it rise and just go wild. Higher the better for him. Other countries weren't going to do anything -- this helped them. Bush wanted more manufacturing and a lower rate. He didn't push for the same currency values. Obama is with Bush, pushing it lower and lower in hopes of gaining manufacturing and other benefits from a lower dollar. However, other countries don't like this. Now there is a point where currencies cross over into a dangerous zone, and put real hurt on other countries. We're at that rate now. That is why there is a currency war happening. If the US can produce a widget for $10 global currency If Germany can produce the same widget for $50 global currency There is a problem. It's clear to us. There is *nothing* that German company can do to compete, and with a 5:1 ratio, he can't win. He's going out of business. This part of the currency has to do with production. How many widgets can you make, and what does it cost to make over there. The currency should then even things out. We're at that point. Other countries are trying to even things out to prevent real financial issues in their countries. I believe Brazil is at that point too. If their currency gains any more strength, their widget production costs, even with the high tariffs in place, just won't compete with goods coming from a country that is devaluing it's currency. Brazil has a huge amount of manufacturing. If China and others can devalue their currencies enough, or elevate the Real high enough, then they can under cut any manufacturer in Brazil, regardless of their productivity. Brazil can't let this happen. From my standpoint, the shelves of Brazils stores are fillling with Chinese goods at a rate that is just too fast. It's because they're playing on an uneven field. Since Chinas currency is locked to the USD, Brazil has to force their currency down, in order to protect their country. The alternative is that the country will start faltering, won't buy as much and it will push it's currency down by itself as it enters a recession. |
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There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started!
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Brazillifestyle
Senior Member
Joined: 03 November 2010 Location: Brazil Online Status: Offline Posts: 562 |
![]() Posted: 06 April 2011 at 20:28 |
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How can the US get back on track with its unrestricted spending, sure they have a plan, and that plan is a world currency. I see the next 5 years of emerging countries (EU aside) gaining stronger value within their own economies, that will be the make or break point. The media is trying to heard everyone into "It's alright to spend again and crash again". All of which the next crash will be harder and the common media viewer will be too out to lunch to do anything. Invest in something hard in emerging markets and regject the world currency!
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agri2001
Senior Member
Joined: 28 June 2009 Location: Brazil Online Status: Offline Posts: 767 |
![]() Posted: 07 April 2011 at 07:36 |
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Here`s Mantega, again, talking through both sides of his mouth.
Seems to me he has been saying the same song and dance for the last 5 years that I can remember. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-07/brazil-has-array-of-tools-to-stem-currency-gains-mantega-says.html |
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Athiests are moral, they don't kill over religion.
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DUNGA
Gringoes.com Guru
Joined: 30 March 2006 Location: Brazil Online Status: Offline Posts: 5110 |
![]() Posted: 07 April 2011 at 08:33 |
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DUNGA
Gringoes.com Guru
Joined: 30 March 2006 Location: Brazil Online Status: Offline Posts: 5110 |
![]() Posted: 07 April 2011 at 17:14 |
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Apparently Brazilian CEOs know what to do with all their dollars.
Brazil's Cash Rich Companies Look Abroad for Acquisitions |
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Esprit
Gringoes.com Guru
Joined: 28 January 2010 Location: Brazil Online Status: Offline Posts: 2407 |
![]() Posted: 07 April 2011 at 17:16 |
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Esprit
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jkennedy
Senior Member
Joined: 04 November 2009 Location: United States Online Status: Offline Posts: 1062 |
![]() Posted: 07 April 2011 at 17:20 |
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Acquisitions right now are a great way to lock in your currency profits.
Lots of companies are hoarding money and have stock piles of it. We'll probably see some good M&A over the next year or two. Why invest in an unknown company, when you can buy another company cheaply that is already succeeding? Like wise, if the currency flips for any short time, I would drop money into Brazil and buy property before other markets have a chance to adjust. |
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There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started!
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IP Logged |
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