Gringoes.com: Exchange Rate Predictions 2012

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jkennedy
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Joined: 04 November 2009
Location: United States
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Posted: 10 May 2012 at 14:40

generally commodities aren't great for a country that wants to grow it's employee base. The commodities set the price of their currency often, and sets it kind of high. That means that the average person wanting to make shoes, has a hard time exporting because the currency is propped up by something huge like oil.

From seeing how businesses are run in Brazil it seems like companies make huge amounts and run extremely inefficiently, which leads to decent profits, but huge . No matter what the interest rates, it's clear that companies can invest and make money. A company that can export and stay in business while the currency goes from 4:1.5, and inflation goes at 5-15% the other way... it shows huge potential...

The country clearly has potential to grow, it's really when debt takes it out. It only takes like 2-3 years of stumbling before everyone is under water due to massive interest rates.

There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started!

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spongebob
Gringoes.com Guru

Joined: 18 June 2007
Location: New Zealand
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Posted: 10 May 2012 at 23:20

Originally posted by Amsterdam

Originally posted by spongebob

I can be completely wrong, but I doubt it, but I'm getting the feeling that Brazil isn't the hot investment anymore.

In what sense, thats quite a generalised statement for such a huge country. It all depends on where you live i guess and what you are doing. I know people making fortunes here.

I think because of all the credit that is being handed out like smarties, i think thats a nice bubble to watch in the future say 2 or 3 years time, when people who have never been given credit start to find themselves in problems, that will be a large percentage of the population i would think.

I watch everything very closely - the price of the dollar versus all the major currencies, and the price of most commodities. (I've been posting about this or a long time so I'm not lying...)

I hate to say it, but really, it seems like things are peetering out in Brazil, Australia, and most countries that are "commodity-dependent". The EXTENT, I don't know. It could be for one week or 10 years. We don't know. But these things are usuallly multi-year.

It worked well for Lula to lower the IPI in 2008, but now it's 2012, and it doesn't seem to be working so Dilma is resorting to other tactics. For her, the "domestic" market is most important to her because they are the ones that vote.... Hopefully for all of us that really live here, it won't be so bad.. and for those that are thinking about coming to Brazil.. wait a couple of years. And Amsterdam, I don't think you are Ku-hertz, cu-ra, expatfartz or Ray-ku anymore.. your English is too "beat up". You soud more like an Albanian writing English here.

Edited by spongebob - 10 May 2012 at 23:21

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Amsterdam
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Joined: 02 March 2012
Location: Brazil
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Posts: 1074

Posted: 11 May 2012 at 00:08

Originally posted by spongebob

You sound more like an Albanian writing English here.

Errr, yeah thanks, you sound like Borat

especially when you are writing your posts that you think sound intelligent.

So you make your living on the markets right? Living in Brazil and trading, is that it?

Ps, i corrected your spelling for you Borat.

Edited by Amsterdam - 11 May 2012 at 00:08

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Amsterdam
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Joined: 02 March 2012
Location: Brazil
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Posted: 11 May 2012 at 00:14

Originally posted by spongebob

I watch everything very closely - the price of the dollar versus all the major currencies, and the price of most commodities. (I've been posting about this or a long time so I'm not lying...)

Ok Borat

After watching your flick, i am starting to realise where you are coming from..lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_I3tIjztj8

Edited by Amsterdam - 13 May 2012 at 08:54

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Fortaleza-Newf
Senior Member

Joined: 30 August 2010
Location: Brazil
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Posts: 398

Posted: 11 May 2012 at 02:34

Originally posted by spongebob

Originally posted by Amsterdam

Originally posted by spongebob

I can be completely wrong, but I doubt it, but I'm getting the feeling that Brazil isn't the hot investment anymore.

In what sense, thats quite a generalised statement for such a huge country. It all depends on where you live i guess and what you are doing. I know people making fortunes here.

I watch everything very closely - the price of the dollar versus all the major currencies, and the price of most commodities. (I've been posting about this or a long time so I'm not lying...)I hate to say it, but really, it seems like things are peetering out in Brazil, Australia, and most countries that are "commodity-dependent". The EXTENT, I don't know. It could be for one week or 10 years. We don't know. But these things are usuallly multi-year. It worked well for Lula to lower the IPI in 2008, but now it's 2012, and it doesn't seem to be working so Dilma is resorting to other tactics. For her, the "domestic" market is most important to her because they are the ones that vote.... Hopefully for all of us that really live here, it won't be so bad.. and for those that are thinking about coming to Brazil.. wait a couple of years. And Amsterdam, I don't think you are Ku-hertz, cu-ra, expatfartz or Ray-ku anymore.. your English is too "beat up". You soud more like an Albanian writing English here.

good one SB. I think we have a genuine Borat like character on our hands this time!

Now Kuala Lumpur Newf!!!

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frank4000
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Joined: 29 November 2008
Location: Trinidad and Tobago
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Posted: 11 May 2012 at 02:41

lol. I am just happy the exchange rate is correcting itself. I make my move at 2.50 to Dollar.

Meu Vizinho Jogou um semente no seu quintal

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spongebob
Gringoes.com Guru

Joined: 18 June 2007
Location: New Zealand
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Posted: 11 May 2012 at 09:01

Originally posted by frank4000

lol. I am just happy the exchange rate is correcting itself. I make my move at 2.50 to Dollar.

yeah, you're in the US. I'm in Brazil. If there is hyperinflation here, it doesn't affect you.

@AmsterDork - no, I am a big coffee (cafétão). That's how I make my living.

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** Just sayin' **
** Make lemonaid out of lemons. **
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Gringo.Floripa
Gringoes.com Guru

Joined: 17 June 2010
Location: Brazil
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Posts: 4610

Posted: 11 May 2012 at 09:47

Sooooo then, back on topic….

'Contagion' seems to have now crossed from Europe, back to the US: JP Morgan has 2 BILLION dollar trading loss. Ooopps!

And once again, the loss is via the derivatives market! If anyone saw the film Inside Job, it was clear that after the debacle of 2008, nothing really changed on Wall Street, nor in Washington.

Might as well be playing Chutes and Ladders… 2.50 (USD:BRL) here we come! Weeeeee!!!

---ʇno uıƃuɐɥ ʇsnɾ---

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spongebob
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Location: New Zealand
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Posted: 11 May 2012 at 10:01

2 billion loss! That's what happened to the UBS trader and that was everywhere in the media. Whoops!

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** Just sayin' **
** Make lemonaid out of lemons. **
** Trolls get old...**

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Amsterdam
Senior Member

Joined: 02 March 2012
Location: Brazil
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Posts: 1074

Posted: 13 May 2012 at 09:06

Originally posted by spongebob

2 billion loss! That's what happened to the UBS trader and that was everywhere in the media. Whoops!

I used to do alot of futures trading, believe me its incredibly stressful and i stopped for that very reason, too many sleepness nights and moods like you wouldnt believe. One day up 50k the next day down 30k and so on. Protecting positions and opening up new positions to gain on slower positions. And when its with your own money its a different ball game.

These guys are trading and for an aggressive trader it is very difficult for him to immeditately change his tactics to secure and safer positions, its like war.

What they should have done was to relieve this guy and sent him home for a 2 week break and put some other tactical traders on it, instead they allowed him to carry on. I have done this so i know, its difficult to change from agressive to safe overnight, its a different mind set.

Edited by Amsterdam - 13 May 2012 at 09:59

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