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Gringodude
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Quote Gringodude Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 15:05
Are you kidding?
The minimum wage is only going to raise something like 14%, if that, and it's only been proposed. What you might have meant to say was that perhaps their easier access to credit or even minha case operation opening doors to spending. They've run amuck in the US shopping malls buying up this and that. It could be a natural reaction as brazilians are very trend savvy and are very good followers!

It's kind of sad that spend spend spend is the new motto, as a result you have high interest credit debt. But no one asks questions in Brazil, banks can say "Huh, who, nap sei!"...

Good luck with my generous 1.9, use it wisely!
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DUNGA
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Quote DUNGA Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 15:11
I try never to make predictions. I think they are bad luck. But I have agreed with some of the bullish links I have posted. In the long run, the fundamentals are still here. Especially if you believe in growth based on consumer spending, which is the way Lula's PT has engineered the internal economy. A lot of it is flash in the pan stuff designed to appease the Brazilian masses and also put on a patina of progress to attract foreign investment. The government here is expert at propaganda and dressing things up and putting on a show is what Brazil is best at ... Carnival ... pra ingles ver ...Beer, Beach and Bum-Bum, the Brazilian mark is hard to beat!


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Gringo.Floripa
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Quote Gringo.Floripa Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 15:37
Originally posted by DUNGA

In the long run, the fundamentals are still here. Especially if you believe in growth based on consumer spending, which is the way Lula's PT has engineered the internal economy. A lot of it is flash in the pan stuff designed to appease the Brazilian masses and also put on a patina of progress to attract foreign investment.


And this is indeed true, yet it assumes the rest of the world floats on a placid sea... which it doesn't, especially right now.  As Brasil climbs her way up the ladder of economic ranking (recently bumping the UK one notch down the ladder), she becomes more and more vulnerable to external events and influences.  As the saying goes, the higher you climb, the father the fall.  Anyway, I think it's a fairly safe prediction that things will continue upwards (with maybe a correction here and there), at least until 2016.  By then, Pre-Sal better be pumping some solid returns.  Otherwise....

While I would love a long term run of a rate in the 2.0+ territory, I'd be happy for a brief, yet dramatic spike in 2012.  Time alone will tell.



Edited by Gringo.Floripa - 31 December 2011 at 17:10

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DUNGA
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Quote DUNGA Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 15:51
One in the hand is worth two in the bush ... 1.85 is looking much better than 1.65
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Quote Gringodude Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 15:52
Originally posted by Gringo.Floripa




Originally posted by DUNGA

In the long run, the fundamentals are still here. Especially if you believe in growth based on consumer spending, which is the way Lula's PT has engineered the internal economy. A lot of it is flash in the pan stuff designed to appease the Brazilian masses and also put on a patina of progress to attract foreign investment.
And this is indeed true, yet it assumes the rest of the world floats on a placid sea... which it doesn't, especially right now.  As Brasil climbs her way up the ladder of country economic ranking (recently bumping the UK one notch down the ladder), she becomes more vulnerable to external events and influences.  As the saying goes, the higher you go, the harder the fall (or something like that... LOL).  Anyway, I think it's a fairly safe prediction that things will continue upwards (with maybe a correction here and ther), at least until 2016.  By then, Pre-Sal better be pumping some solid returns.  Otherwise....While I would love a long term run of a rate in the 2.0+ territory, I'd be happy for a brief, yet dramatic spike in 2012.  Time alone will tell.




Don't you find the growth exciting? I do! Ever since my first time in Brazil, I see the basis for potential and it never stops. Yes of course there is much frustration to accompany that. However I feel it's incredible and I am still excited to this day! Any entrepreneurs?
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BorisG
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Quote BorisG Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 16:05
Do you have any money to lose?
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Gringo.Floripa
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Quote Gringo.Floripa Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 16:07
Originally posted by DUNGA

1.85 is looking much better than 1.65


That's like saying, "If I had one more drink, she might not be so bad..."  LOL


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Gringo.Floripa
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Quote Gringo.Floripa Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 16:20
Originally posted by Gringodude

Don't you find the growth exciting? I do! Ever since my first time in Brazil, I see the basis for potential and it never stops. Yes of course there is much frustration to accompany that. However I feel it's incredible and I am still excited to this day! Any entrepreneurs?


If I was 20-something again, like you, yes, it would be quite exciting.  Yet if I wanted "exciting", I would have moved to Shanghai.  I moved here (Floripa) for the sossegado factor, not the growth potential.  Yet little did I realize back then, I was on the crest of a huge wave, which has yet break.  "Growth" here means more traffic, higher prices, and a quality of life which is less than what it was a few years ago.  I have no doubt this story is being repeated in other cities in Brasil.

GD, rather than inquiring if there are any entrepreneurs, you should perhaps be looking for some venture capitalists.  You're young.  Go for it!  You might lose it all once, even twice.  Most successful people have.  But you learn from it; there's no such thing as "failure"....




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Quote Esprit Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 16:25
I suspect that given the fickleness of fate's finger, one might be just as well wet that finger to test the wind or enter the gipsy's tent and cross a palm with silver to glean the currency's future. 2012 will be an extraordinary year; a year of years. The wind of change will blow away the smoke when the mirrors will reflect the nakedness of those wearing the magic clothes on Wall Street and Capitol Hill together with the befuddled nincompoops in Brussels. I wouldn't flatter Brazil with any cards of its own to play in this game; Brazil is simply the tits & ass serving drinks to the players at the table while relying on their tips in this global economic symbiosis.

Given the possibility of recession or depression in a changing world, I hesitate to predict anything other than to be afraid, be very afraid.

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Gringodude
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Quote Gringodude Replybullet Posted: 31 December 2011 at 16:25
I mean in the spiritual sense of being an entrepreneur. Personally I feel more attracted to the management or leadership side of this "wave" (as you call it). Why? Well because it needs direction and if you're an inventor or creator, Brazil is not so easy or to the effect competent on how to function. Somehow I am wrong because 200 million people somehow function, though against all common sense, yet it works well for them. Though technology will increase and knowledge will also rise that awareness is key and i think there is a pool of success to be filled!

I love to make sure everyone understands what it is their doing! Brazil needs that in so many ways! At least that's my stake in it!
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