What you consider chinese food isn't any better than the Brazilians.   It's all crafted for the culture that they adapt to.  If anything you're having doesn't have every part of the chicken in there, and if anything on the menu says "Left overs.." or untranslated "Chow Mein" it's not Chinese restaurant either.  It's a cultural food group that has required a lot of tweaking to get it acceptable to local palettes.

Brazilian goods haven't had to compete with anyone, so of course their quality is way down there.   Look at American cars from the 70's vs today!   Without strong competition from the Japanese we would still have cars constantly breaking down.  Engines requiring no tuning for 160K now?  Oil changes at 15K?   Bearings that last for the life of the car?  

Brazil will have to increase it's import taxes as long as propping the Real up, but that is going to just drive the Real to much stronger position in the end as more dollars are fighting for Reals and less are willing to give them up.  Especially when oil production ramps up, and exports start bringing in larger sums of money to Brazil.  It will force the competition for the Real up, but that will just lay waste to manufacturers, and exporters in Brazil.

Global Scale?  This is really about employing the world, and blue collar workers competing for those jobs.  When they say "the rich keep getting richer" they are actually talking about white collar vs blue collar, not blue collar vs ceo's.  White collar workers wages are increasing, while their fellow counter parts aren't.  White collar will come under some stress as well in the coming years as those blue collar employees bring up white collar children and/or take white collar jobs in their home countries.

Unfortunately, for us to live the way we do, we need essentially slaves or those who live in squalor compared with us.  America has Mexicans, Europe has the Turks, China has poor Chinese, even Brazil has Brazilians.   This likely won't change, we'll grow until we run out of these people.  Then we'll really stagnate.  I'm not really sure what the world will look like then, but it won't be in our generation.  We have far too many people who can move up the ladder, without diluting our slave pool.  I make a point of saying slave, because saying anything else is just trying to hide the fact that we're abusing these people.

That being said, we'll see China grow up, have it's own "US" economy.  We'll see Africa start up after that (Perhaps 10-15 years out?) 

Brazil is a little worrying.   It's avoiding global competition, but at what price?  Everyone else is facing stiff competition, seeing their standard of living go down, but on the flip side everything does get more competitive and "better" in general.  "Made in Brazil" products aren't exactly top notch, but they don't have to be.  They don't have to compete with anyone, so why would they?  That means in 15 years, when everyone is light years ahead in manufacturing, Brazil could be in the ice ages of manufacturing.   Luckily Brazil has natural resources, which it can sell off and finance whatever needs upgrading to compete.

I don't believe in dooms day scenarios, or stories of glory to come.  While they do occasionally happen, and we have a history of them happening, they infrequent.  Problems yes.  Dooms day scenarios, no.   Looking at the latest financial crisis, the government was able to step in and prevent a complete melt down.  We had banks collapsing, mortgages defaulting, employment problems, businesses couldn't get credit, stock market plummeting, lots of uncertainty, etc.   It took *all* of those things together to cause a major problem.  The government stepped in, supported the banks, slowed employment losses, and ensured businesses could get credit, removed much of the uncertainty.  Uncertainty made it really easy to sell off all those treasury bills (people flee to the US when there is uncertainty in the world, and they flee to treasury bills when the US is uncertain).  Now, banks are making a profit, returning their loans.  Employment losses stopped.  Stock market returned to a valuation relative to where it's been for the last 100 years.   Future economic uncertainty was removed (companies are making accurate financial predictions now) This happened all over the world as well.   Dooms day averted.  People keep saying it's going to happen, but a housing crash won't do it.  It required housing, banking, employement, etc all to hit at once.  Was this fair to everyone? No.  Those who had been patiently waiting for the collapse to buy houses for pennies on the dollar never saw those prices.  Was it better for "everyone", yes.  A few didn't make massive profits, but the majority were only wounded lightly instead.

Conclusion is: The world communicates much better, more of what happens in the world is visible to everyone.   No dooms day scenarios, or glory scenarios are likely.  We need slave labor to achieve major success.   We're competing on a global scale, China will eventually be a market like the US to sell into.  They simply want into the "Rich Countries" club.   We're all going to be competing with people from around the world in the future.   Everyone's wages will be less local, and more global. (eg if you make $1 day, they're going up.  If you make $1000 day, they're going down).

Originally posted by jkennedy Conclusion is: The world communicates much better, more of what happens in the world is visible to everyone.   No dooms day scenarios, or glory scenarios are likely.

In a perfect world, this is a fitting conclusion.  Unfortunately, it does not take into account wild cards, like Iran, and North Korea (with Iran being the most wild).  What Iran "communicates" to the world is supect, and they are hardly transparent (visible).  While we all hope there are no doomsday scenarios, all it would take is one mushroom cloud sprouted by the grim-faced Ayatollahs to dramatically alter (almost) everyone's best laid plans.  And should a show down at the OK Corral occur, you can bet China and even Russia, will be watching Iran's back, not the back of the US.  Iran's oil, or Uncle Sam's worthless paper.... Which do you think China would choose???

JK,

Originally posted by jkennedy Much like Russian/China on Iran.  They do things to get on Irans side, but when it comes push to shove, they don't side Iran.  Iran is currently making a scene, Russia/China are semi-backing them, but they're only doing it because it's a scene, everyone knows it, and they gain some clout with Iran and get their own scene happening.   However if Iran does something stupid, they won't be around backing them.

Russia provided Iran not only with the technology to build a nuclear reactor, but also with the fuel to crank it up.  I would call that full support, not "semi-backing them".  It truly is a middle finger salute to the US.

Push has not yet come to shove, so regardless of one's personal opinion, this variable is actually yet unknown (who China/Russia would side with in a serious altercation/war involving Iran).  Think back in your own personal lives forum  members, of certain times people you thought to be friends, who turned out to be something different.  Is global politics any different?

In our post 9-11 world, a rouge nation need not be the fall guy, and there need not be inter-continental delivery of a first strike.  It could all be blamed on the multi-national bogeyman Taliban/bin-Laden, and delivered in something as small as a suitcase.  Yet when/if such a scenario ensues, and whoever claims to be responsible (if they dare), raw materials will become the Rooks, Knights, and Bishops, while worthless promissory notes will become the dispensable Pawns.

But what does this have to do with Brasil?!?  Nada... (unless the raw materials game takes center stage).




Edited by Gringo.Floripa - 21 October 2010 at 22:24